258
FXUS64 KMRX 021722
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory have been issued for
portions of the NWS Morristown forecast area for tonight.

- Cooler temperatures continue on Sunday, but a warming trend then
begins heading into next week.

- Some isolated showers may occur over the plateau this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise the next chance for widespread showers
and storms will be the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

An anomalously deep trough will swing through the region later
today, with upper heights and H85 temps some 2-3 standard
deviations below normal for this time of year. Regional radar
imagery shows some showers associated with this trough over
southern IL and western KY this afternoon. With dry air in place
across the MRX forecast area, and the trough axis arriving well
after peak heating, the odds of rainfall in our area seem low.
However, I would not be surprised to see some spotty showers over
parts of the plateau later this afternoon and evening. Surface
high pressure then builds in from the west tonight, leading to
light winds and good radiational conditions. This should allow for
some freezing temperatures in sheltered areas of our Virginia
counties, as well as some near- freezing temperatures and areas of
frost in parts of the northern plateau, far northeast TN
counties, and even our east TN mountain zones and the valley areas
of our NC counties. Freeze warnings and frost advisories have
been hoisted to account for this. Temperatures will be a touch
warmer on Sun and Sun night, though still cooler than normal.
Frost doesn't appear to be a concern for Sunday night.

Broad cyclonic upper flow continues into early next week, but low
level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly with time. As such,
we should see temperatures rebound back into the 70s to near 80
by Mon and Tue. A weak impulse embedded in the WNW upper flow
looks to spark off some nocturnal convection over southern
Illinois late Sunday night into Monday. Looking at deterministic
guidance, there's a mixed bag of rain chances. Current NBM places
some 20-40% rain chances north of the I-40 corridor during the
daytime hours on Mon, favoring our VA counties and some of our
northern TN mountain areas for the highest odds of seeing
rainfall. Given the pattern and orientation of the low level jet
and associated isentropic ascent, it is certainly plausible that
our northern areas could see some rainfall Monday. Am inclined to
leave this as-is primarily because I don't have enough confidence
in exactly where this rainfall will occur. It could be displaced
further north or south than currently advertised, but it seems
reasonable to have some rain chances in there.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes
region troughing mid-week. NBM currently ramps up pops during the
day Wednesday but ensemble guidance really suggests it will be
more of a Wednesday evening/overnight rainfall event.
Nevertheless, the latest NBM probabilities for 24 hour rainfall of
1.0" or greater have increased since yesterday and now stand at
around 60-70% for a large chunk of our CWA - highest over the most
drought stricken areas in the south. Other ensemble guidance has
similar odds, and even some deterministic guidance like the ECMWF-
AIFS shows over 0.70" of QPF across a large swath of the CWA. In
other words, it looks like a good rain event is on the horizon.
Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for strong/severe
storm chances. Strong shear is all but certain, but instability
may be a limiting factor, especially in the event of a nocturnal
passage. There will also be potential for some late season
mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. An incoming
disturbance aloft will likely spread some ISOLD SHRA into the
plateau region this afternoon and evening, but they should not
persist long enough or be widespread enough to impact any
terminals. Gusty north winds at KTYS and KCHA will give way to
near calm conditions overnight as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 71 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 68 47 79 / 10 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 45 79 / 10 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 64 42 75 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky
Mountains-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-
Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Johnson-Southeast Carter.

VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

823
FXUS64 KMRX 030519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in effect for
portions of the NWS Morristown forecast area through this
morning.

- Cooler temperatures continue this afternoon, with a warming
trend heading into next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers possible in northern areas Monday
morning, otherwise, the next chance for widespread showers and
storms will be mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Weak vort max is beginning to depart the southern Appalachians as
light shower activity has diminished. Clouds will continue to
clear into the morning and promote favorable radiational cooling
conditions that will lead to frost/freeze for northern portions of
the area. Dry weather with continued cool temperatures expected
this afternoon.

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly
flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend into the 70s or
near 80 early next week. Monday will feature a weak impulse
traversing mean flow aloft. CAMs have come into a little better
agreement with scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder
impacting northern locations Monday morning into the early
afternoon.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region
troughing mid-week. Can't rule out some precip Tuesday night but
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement that the more
widespread precip chances ramp up Wednesday/Wed Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums > 1.0" have stayed steady around 60-
70% this forecast cycle. However, a slight uptick in joint
probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear > 40kts can be
noted in LREF probabilities. These probabilities generally range
between 40-50% along and south of interstate 40. Some deterministic
guidance hints at jet coupling that could possibly enhance lift
enough to help overcome a low CAPE environment. Biggest concern
would be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger
storms. There may also be potential for some late season
mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post
FROPA, with the potential for another quick shot of light rain next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 46 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 46 78 55 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 43 79 54 / 0 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 75 49 / 0 10 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Greene-Scott TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Johnson-Southeast
Carter.

VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott
VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

338
FXUS64 KMRX 031909
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
309 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight. No frost or freeze
products expected.

- Slight chance of rain tomorrow morning across southwest VA and
slight chance thunder in afternoon.

- Warming trend this week.

- Chances for widespread showers and storms late tuesday night
through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight across
the area. Therefore, no frost/freeze products are expected to be
issued. However, there is a low-end chance that a few sheltered
valley locations across the east TN mountains, northeast TN and
southwest VA may see some patchy frost.

NBM still showing some slight chance and low-end chance POPs across
southwest VA for tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. This is
due to a weak impulse traversing mean flow aloft. Based on latest deterministic models and CAMs, NBM POPs seem reasonable so will
leave them be. Any morning activity that occurs will be rain. Then,
slight chance thunder with any afternoon activity.

Best chance of widespread rain, and some storms, occurs late Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. This is in response to an approaching
cold front and emerging shortwave from out of the Central Plains
states. There are several things we are watching with this system.

Winds: A prolonged period of breezy/gusty winds are expected across
the east TN mountains in response to an increase in the LLJ. From
Tuesday through Thursday, expect mountain winds to be breezy at
times. The highest peaks may see on and off gusts between 30 and
40 mph.

Precip: NBM precip probs haven't changed too much since the last
cycle. They generally show 60 to 80% probs of seeing at least 1" or
greater amounts for this event. The 2" probs between Knoxville and
Chattanooga are around 40/50%. However, there are much lower probs,
around 20%, across northeast TN and southwest VA to see 2" or
greater.

Storms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear

40kts are similar this run as well. These probabilities

generally range between 40-60% along and south of interstate 40.
The current day 4 SPC outlook highlights areas just to our
southwest. It's not unreasonable that we could at least see a
marginal risk in place along and south of I-40 on the next update,
new day 3. While CAPE continues to be a limiting factor in the
overall severe threat, wind shear will be plenty. Biggest concern
as of now continues to be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours
with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions end the week post FROPA, with the
potential for another quick shot of light rain next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period along
with light westerly winds less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 43 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 76 49 78 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

883
FXUS64 KMRX 040529
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Low chance of rain showers this morning across southwest VA and
slight chance thunder.

- Showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with
periods of heavy rain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Ongoing showers/storms across southern IL/IN will be tracking
E-SE through the night along a weak warm front. CAMS show this
activity expanding in the next few hours, and clipping our SW VA
counties between 6-10 AM. With only weak elevated instability,
this should mainly just be showers with thunderstorms being
isolated at best. Otherwise, it will be a mostly sunny day with
temperatures warmer than we have had recently, in the mid to upper
70s.

An approaching cold front will bring showers into the area Tuesday
night, with an extended wet period expected through Thursday as that
front stalls near the area. There are several things we are watching
with this system:

Winds: A southerly LLJ jet develops Tuesday evening. REFS proability
of winds 40 kt or greater are around 70% in the East TN mountains.
With the slow progression of the front, 850 mb winds continue in
the 35-50 kt range through Wednesday.

Precip: The cold front stalls near the area on Wednesday as it
becomes parallel to the mid/upper flow. Favorable upper jet position
for QG forcing and a wide open Gulf suggest periods of heavy
rainfall, with potential for flooding. NBM precip probs for
Wednesday and Wednesday night generally show 70 to 80% probs of
seeing at least 1" or greater amounts for this event south of I-40,
with 40-60% north.

Thunderstorms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and
Bulk Shear > 40kts have dropped from previous runs, and are now
around 25% south of I-40 (previously 40-60%). While CAPE continues
to be a limiting factor in overall severe threat, but wind shear
will be plenty. Biggest concern as of now continues to be locally
gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the end of the week
as a broad trough develops over the eastern Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Light winds
early will become southwest around 10kts with a few higher gusts,
before becoming light again after sunset.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 54 79 62 / 0 0 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 79 61 / 0 0 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 79 53 77 60 / 0 0 20 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 48 77 57 / 10 0 10 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

107
FXUS64 KMRX 041753
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Widespread showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday
morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface-based instability can develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Main concern for the next 7 days will be the system moving through
the region on Wednesday so the discussion will focus on that. This
will bring with it the possibility of some flash flooding concerns,
as well as a conditional severe weather threat. Gusty winds will be
possible in the mountains Tue night into Wed thanks to a strong low
level jet, but otherwise mostly dry conditions are in store for the
forecast area through the period.

A synoptic scale trough will drop out of central/eastern Canada
into the northern CONUS today and tonight, while a closed upper low
slowly moves ashore over southern California. Eventually the upper
low opens up and anchors the western periphery of the Canadian
trough, allowing the northern and southern stream jets to merge over
the central CONUS Tue into Wed. The result will be widespread
southwesterly flow developing over the deep south and lower
Mississippi river valley tonight through the mid week time frame. At
the surface, cyclogenesis will take place across the southern plains
on Tuesday, with a cold front setting up somewhere from the Arklatex
region ENE into eastern Kentucky by Tue night. All of this will lead
to a plume of Gulf moisture surging northeast from the Texas coast
into the Appalachian region, with PWATS exceeding 1.75" across parts
of the area by Wed afternoon before the cold front pushes through
Wed night into early Thu morning.

Flooding/Flash Flooding concerns:

Low and mid level flow will be parallel to the front as it
approaches, with several waves of surface low pressure forecast to
develop and move northeast along the front Tue night through Wed.
All of this points to a slow moving boundary which, when coupled
with a modest amount of instability, sufficient shear, and high
PWATs will mean a chance of training showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rains and some flash flooding issues. The
heaviest rain looks to be focused on areas south of the I-40
corridor, which is where drought conditions are the most severe at
the moment. And although rain is needed, heavy rains on drought
stricken soil is not ideal. Currently the forecast calls for 2-3" of
storm total rain across the southern half of the forecast area and
especially in the southern TN mountains, which is supported by
ensemble data showing very high odds of exceeding 1.5" across a
large swath of the southern half of the CWA Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. And given the pattern, I would not be at all
surprised to see this exceeded in spots if there is any decent
training of thunderstorms. Furthermore, WPC has the southern parts
of the CWA highlighted by a Day 3 Excessive Rain Outlook, so this
all seems reasonable.

Severe weather concerns:

Depending on the location of the front Wed afternoon and evening,
and the thermal profiles in place, there could be just elevated
instability with heavy rains and no real threat of severe storms. Or
there could be the potential for damaging winds and even a
conditional tornado risk in the south. Joint probabilities from
ensemble data show about a 30-35 percent chance of having surface-
based instability exceeding 500 J/kg and bulk shear of 40kt or
greater Wed afternoon and evening across the southern TN valley. I
don't have high confidence in exactly how this will play out because
that will depend on mesoscale details that we're not privy to just
yet (e.g. where and when do the waves of surface low pressure
develop along the front and pass by/through our CWA, and what are
the effects on the low level thermal profiles). However, there's
plenty of shear in place and if we can develop surface based
instability then damaging winds and even a tornado can't be ruled
out over the southern valley and plateau areas Wed afternoon and
evening. Currently the far south is outlooked in a Day 3 Marginal
risk area by SPC and that seems reasonable given the uncertainties.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is an increase in severe chances
over the next 24 hours though as the event comes into view of the
CAM guidance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Aside
from gusty south-southwest winds at TYS this afternoon, winds
should be around 10kts or less through the period and mostly
south-westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 79 63 77 / 0 20 50 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 79 61 75 / 0 20 70 90
Oak Ridge, TN 52 77 60 73 / 0 20 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 78 58 74 / 0 10 60 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

542
FXUS64 KMRX 050530
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Widespread showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday
morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface- based instability can develop.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today through Wednesday
especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over the
northern states. Nearly zonal flow will be over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys today. By Tuesday night, a surface low will
develop near OH/PA with a developing cold front extending southwest
into Texas. Minor waves can be seen moving through the upper level
pattern. This boundary will very slowly sag southward moving into
Middle Tennessee and East Kentucky by Wednesday afternoon/early
evening. This slow moving boundary will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Wednesday night
before activity tapers off on Thursday.

Southwesterly winds will be gusty ahead of this system. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for the East Tennessee mountains and
foothills starting Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. The
850 mb jet will increase Tuesday evening. The wind direction looks
favorable for downslope wind enhancement. Gusts up to 45-50 mph will
be possible in wind prone spots.

Tuesday night:

A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday night. Severe storms
will develop upstream along the boundary in the evening hours. Those
storms will not get to East Tennessee until the overnight hours and
will have plenty of time to weaken. HRRR still shows a few strong
storms possible despite low instability. Dew points will be in the
50s Tuesday night but increasing through the night as low level
southerly flow increases with the low level jet strengthening. The
best chance for a strong storm will be west of I-75 closer to the
boundary.

Wednesday:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the
Gulf into the region. By Wednesday afternoon, Precipitable water
values will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the
90th percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple
rounds of heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially
along and south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be
higher. The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit
with drought conditions.

Wednesday afternoon/evening may be the best chance for strong to
severe storms to develop with the cold front in good proximity and
effective shear around 50 knots. Instability may be a limiting factor
with cloud cover lingering all day Wednesday but with CAPE expected
to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe storms cannot
be ruled out. A low end tornado threat may be possible with 0-1 km
shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

At the moment, it looks like the cold front will move through the
region overnight Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms and
flash flooding may linger into the overnight hours but late into the
night the threat will decrease as the front passes.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still very
slow to move and will likely be just south of the region. The
flooding threat will be over after the front moves through with a
much drier air mass moving in with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is
also not expected. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move
through the Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off
another round of showers. High pressure will be centered over the
region Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:

Another system is possible Sun/Mon, but looks like it will move
through much faster. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Borderline LLWS at TYS/TRI to start the period was added earlier
and will be allowed to continue for now. VFR conditions expected
for the period. Winds will become gusty during the day especially
TYS from the SW. LLWS looks borderline again tonight as surface
winds subside especially CHA/TRI, and it may need to be added
later but will be left out for no as confidence of it meeting
criteria is currently not high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 63 77 61 / 10 50 90 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 61 75 58 / 10 70 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 73 56 / 20 70 100 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 58 73 56 / 10 70 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

662
FXUS64 KMRX 051756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Widespread showers and storms tonight through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday. Widespread flooding seems unlikely though.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface-based instability can develop. If it does, damaging
winds will be possible, and even a tornado risk will be present.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today through Wednesday
especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Northern and southern stream jet energy will phase over the central
CONUS over the next 24 hours as a closed low over Southern
California opens up in response to a synoptic scale dropping south
from Canada into the northern plains and upper midwest. Surface low
pressure develops over the southern plains and will shift northeast
through the Ozarks and into Kentucky, with the associated front
pushing through our forecast area tomorrow. Ahead of the front,
showers and possibly some elevated thunderstorms will spread into
the region tonight, then increase in coverage tomorrow, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon
and evening.

Mountain winds:

Ahead of the front, low level flow ramps up tonight with most
guidance showing at least 30-40 kt of H85 flow, and some showing
slightly more. Given the lack of CAD setup east of the mountains and associated pressure and temperature gradients across the
Appalachians, this seems like a lower end Advisory event. However,
there is enough signal for 40-50mph wind gusts in the Smokies to
warrant issuing a Wind Advisory there. Elsewhere, in our typical
mountain wave wind spots it looks mostly like a breezy night that
will fall short of advisory levels.

Severe storms:

There remains a conditional severe weather threat tomorrow, one that
largely hinges on how early morning convection will affect
instability later in the day I believe. Shear won't be in question,
with guidance showing effective shear north of 50kt across much of
the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. Instability on the other
hand, is uncertain. Probabilistic guidance continues to show
respectable (40-60 percent) chances of seeing deep layer sheer of
greater than 40kt and surface-based CAPE exceeding 500 or even 750
J/kg tomorrow afternoon in the southern parts of the CWA. Thus I
believe there will be a limited window ahead of the front tomorrow
afternoon and evening where some severe storms could develop. If
that occurs, damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, but
severe-sized hail and even a tornado risk will be on the table as
well. Again though, this is a conditional situation and it's
possible that cloud cover and rain during the day could keep a
surface inversion in place and limit the outcome to just elevated
showers with heavy rains. And I don't have high confidence in which
scenario becomes a reality.

Flooding rains:

PWATs are forecast to increase to around 1.7-1.8" tomorrow, mainly
south of the I-40 corridor, which is greater than the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Training storms will be a
possibility with steering flow largely parallel to the incoming
front. Given the multiple rounds of rain expected between tonight
and Wednesday night, it's possible that some flooding concerns could
arise. I don't know that the threat is widespread enough to warrant
issuing a watch at this time however, so will just continue to
advertise in the AFD and the HWO.

Wednesday night onward:

At the moment, it looks like the cold front moves through the region
overnight Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms and flash
flooding may linger into the first half of the overnight hours but
late in the night the threat will decrease as the front passes.

Much drier air moves in behind the front with dew points dropping
into the 50s on Thursday. Showers linger on Thursday morning, with
more possible again in the north Thu afternoon and evening as a weak
impulse passes by. High pressure will be centered over the region
Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:

Another system is possible Sun/Mon, but looks like it will move
through much faster. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions through late tonight before rain moves in. SHRA
seem likely at all sites after 12z, with accompanying MVFR flight
categories. TSRA will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning,
but coverage uncertainty precludes mentioning it for now. More
widespread TSRA chances will exist tomorrow afternoon. SWLY flow
through the TN valley likely keep gusts going at KTYS, with
lighter winds elsewhere. Elsewhere, winds may stay elevated enough
to prohibit LLWS so I left that out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 77 61 72 / 60 90 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 74 58 68 / 70 100 100 60
Oak Ridge, TN 60 73 56 69 / 80 100 90 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 73 56 65 / 70 100 100 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

325
FXUS64 KMRX 060523
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms
this afternoon and evening. Widespread flooding seems unlikely
though.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this
afternoon/evening if surface-based instability can develop. If
it does, damaging winds will be possible, and even a low end
tornado risk will be present.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today especially in the East
Tennessee mountains and foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over
the Midwest. Nearly zonal flow over the Tennessee Valley will
become more southwesterly today. A surface low is currently near
OH/PA with a cold front extending southwest into Texas. This
boundary will slowly sag southward moving into Middle Tennessee
and East Kentucky by late this morning. This slow moving boundary
will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from early
this morning through tonight. The cold front will likely move
through the region around midnight tonight or shortly after. Rain
will continue overnight but thunder chances will decrease through
the night as drier air moves into the region. Thursday, showers
will linger across the region as the cold front remains just to
the south in the morning hours. Thursday afternoon showers will
continue as a shortwave moves through the region.

Southwesterly winds are increasing in the East Tennessee mountains
and foothills as the low level jet strengthens. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT this morning.
Gusts up to 45-50 mph will be possible in the Smoky Mountains.

Through early morning:

Currently dew points are low in the 40s throughout East Tennessee.
Dew points will increase overnight as southerly flow continues. The
cold front is currently near the Ohio River in IN/IL/KY stretching
back into Northwest Arkansas. Storm activity along and ahead of the
front is currently weaker than CAMs predicted. Very little
development occurred in Arkansas. The latest HRRR run has a strong
line of storms developing near the Mississippi River near Arkansas
and west Tennessee. The HRRR has this line weakening significantly as
it moves into Middle Tennessee. In East Tennessee, shower and storm
activity will increase overnight with the best chances in the early
morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but severe
storms are not likely through the morning hours.

Today:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the
Gulf into the region. By this afternoon, Precipitable water values
will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the 90th
percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple rounds of
heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially along and
south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be 1 to 2.5 inches.
The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit with
drought conditions. Overall, widespread flooding is not expected but
maybe some pockets of localized flooding.

The severe threat for late this afternoon and early evening is still complicated. The HRRR has strong to severe storms along and south of
the GA/TN border. Some of the other CAMs have a line of strong
storms all the way into the Central Tennessee Valley. Effective
shear will be favorable around 50 knots. Instability may be a
limiting factor with cloud cover lingering all day but with CAPE
expected to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe
storms will be possible mainly south of I-40. A low end tornado
threat will be possible if storms are able to organize with 0-1 km
shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

It looks like the cold front will move through the region around
midnight tonight or shortly after. The threat for severe storms will
be over by midnight. The localized flooding threat may linger into
the overnight hours but late into the night the threat will decrease
as drier air moves in.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still slow
to move and will likely be just south of the region. The flooding
threat will be over by morning with a much drier air mass moving in
with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is also not expected on
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the
Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off another round
of showers. High pressure will be centered over the region Thursday
night.

Friday through Tuesday:

Friday and Saturday look mostly dry with weak troughing and high
pressure. Another system is likely Sun/Mon and may have some good
upper level support. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Will see showers and thundestorms around at times through the
period, and will try to time best chances for thunder with prob30
groups. VFR conditions to start, but will see more MVFR/IFR
conditions as the precipitation increases. Still looks borderline
for LLWS early in the period, so will monitor but leave out for
now.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 59 73 50 / 100 100 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 69 46 / 100 90 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 54 70 45 / 100 90 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 53 65 42 / 100 100 50 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

950
FXUS64 KMRX 061810
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
210 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through tonight.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon and
evening near the TN/GA border. Overall the odds are low, but the
risk of damaging winds or even a tornado aren't zero.

- Heavy rains and an isolated risk of flooding could occur in the
far south this afternoon and evening as well. But again, like
the severe risk, the overall odds are low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper jet will strengthen over the Ozarks and Ohio valley this
afternoon and evening, with shortwave energy moving ENE overtop a
cold front situated from Kentucky, southwest over Middle Tennessee
and northern Mississippi. Regional radar imagery show the CWA in a
lull between morning convection and additional storms to our west,
with visible satellite imagery showing some sun breaks and thinning
of cloud cover across East Tennessee as well. And temperatures are
responding in kind, with a nearly 10 degree increase in surface
temps at Chattanooga the last couple of hours. All of this to say
that model forecasts showing surface based CAPE values climbing into
the 500-1,000 J/kg range later this afternoon in the south seem
very reasonable, and with the shear (upwards of 50kt effective
bulk shear), the conditional threat of severe storms remains in
place there. Further north I think the odds are quite low.

The southern severe threat is not without uncertainty though.
Current regional radar imagery matches the 12z NAM Nest fairly
well for this hour. This model shows this cluster of storms over
the WFO Huntsville forecast area moving east along the TN/GA
border over the coming few hours, followed by additional
development later this afternoon and evening in those same general
areas. The questions I have are, does this activity become severe
as it moves through our far southern areas here shortly...does
this activity clear to the east quick enough that we can regain
some surface instability later on...or finally, does it
effectively stabilize the far southern areas heading into the late
afternoon and evening. If the latter, then our severe threat is
quite low, if it exists at all. The other two scenarios are less
clear. It would seem reasonable to assume that the thermal
profiles along the TN/GA border show greater instability and an
environment that would support stronger wind gusts making it to
the surface. As for the tornado threat right now, it seems low as
the VAD wind profile off HUN's radar doesn't show favorable
conditions. That likely doesn't change in the near term in the
southern TN valley either. Later this afternoon, forecast
soundings show slightly better conditions but there's still
uncertainty. The threat seems to be confined along or just south
of the TN/GA border. Further north perhaps some damaging winds
could occur but CAM guidance doesn't show much in the way of
stronger activity so the thought is that severe chances are
limited to the south.

As far as chances for flooding problems, most guidance has shifted
the heaviest rain south of our area. It's not out of the question we
could see some isolated flooding issues due to training storms,
especially from the far southern TN valley eastward into our NC
counties where QPF is forecast to be highest. But overall it seems
the threat is less than the last few days.

The cold front behind all of this will push through the area late
tonight. Rainfall should largely be wrapping up between 06z and 12z,
but the upper jet doesn't pull off to the east until Thu afternoon
so I wouldn't be surprised to see some showers lingering in mainly
the mountains through midday or early afternoon as we transition to
a NW flow region just off the surface.

Dry conditions are expected late Thursday through Friday. Zonal flow
aloft then brings another disturbance through the area Friday night
into Saturday, but rain chances are questionable with that period as
we're beneath confluent upper jet energy. Current NBM guidance
doesn't have much in the way of rain chances and I'm inclined to
think that's reasonable for now. But some guidance does bring some
quick hitting rain to the area early Sat morning. Better rain
chances exist later in the weekend as a synoptic scale trough works
through the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Widespread SHRA and embedded TSRA (most likely at KCHA) will
spread across East Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Expect
most activity will wrap up around or shortly after 06z tonight,
but some showers may linger into the morning hours. As for flight
categories, expect a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions overnight as
the front moves in from the west. A return to VFR categories
doesn't seem likely until after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 72 47 74 / 100 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 69 44 72 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 53 70 43 72 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 65 40 69 / 90 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

439
FXUS64 KMRX 070521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- The severe storm threat has ended.

- Light to moderate rain will continue overnight. Flooding
potential if any is low.

- Rain showers will decrease in the morning hours and end
completely by mid afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The cold front is currently stalled near the Cumberland Plateau
at the western edge of our forecast area. Rain showers are still
developing along, ahead of and behind this boundary. Thunderstorms
and heavy rain have moved out of the region. The highest rainfall
amounts have been south of I-40 with many locations receiving one
to two inches. North of I-40, rain amounts have been much lower
with most locations receiving less than half an inch.

Light to moderate rain showers will continue overnight. The highest
rain amounts are expected over the Southern Tennessee Valley and
Southwest North Carolina with half an inch to one inch additional
rainfall expected through the morning hours. The severe storm threat
has ended. Instability has eroded from multiple rounds of rain. The
flooding threat peaked in the evening hours and has been declining.
I can't completely rule out some flooding issues in the southernmost
counties as repeated showers and storms will continue until the
front moves through but that area seems to be doing well with the
rain due to the drought conditions and rain rates haven't been too
high. The cold front will move through the region by morning.

Showers will linger this morning as the front is still slow to move
and will likely be just south of the region. Showers will be light
and spotty with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in
the 50s. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the
Tennessee Valley kicking the front out of the region. Most of the
region will be dry through the afternoon hours. High pressure will
be centered over the region Thursday night.

Friday night/Saturday morning another shortwave will move through
the region but rain chances look low. A Gulf Low will bring rain
chances to the Southeast Saturday/Sunday but the higher rain chances
will likely stay south of the Tennessee Valley. Sunday and Sunday
night will bring a better chance for showers and storms as a system
with good upper level support moves through the region. Otherwise,
early next week looks mostly dry. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Some showers around early with mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, then
will see improvement to VFR during the day. Light winds will
become north and west around 10kts or less during the day, then
light again late.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 47 74 52 / 20 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 44 72 51 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 69 43 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 40 69 46 / 50 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

689
FXUS64 KMRX 071742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Dry and significantly cooler conditions expected tonight. Patchy
frost will be possible in the north and also at higher
elevations.

- Friday should be dry, but a couple of systems will bring chances
of light rain to the region between Saturday and Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A strong jet atop a moist boundary layer trapped in the
Tennessee valley continued to produce occasional light rain and
drizzle for areas near or east of the I-81 corridor late this
morning. The upper jet will remain overhead through this afternoon
and evening but we shift into the left entrance region by mid/late
afternoon, losing any lift associated with the jet streak and thus
our support for continued light rainfall.

For tonight, the cold front continues to push southeast away from
the region, allowing high pressure and drier air to move in from the northwest. Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight across
sheltered areas north of the I-40 corridor and also places with
notable elevation. Suspect we have a chance of seeing some frost in
places, although confidence in how widespread that will be is pretty
low. Blended the NBM 10th percentile and HREF for temperatures and
dewpoints tonight, which yields some patchy frost over portions of
the northern Cumberland plateau, and some scattered areas from the
far northern TN valley into southwest Virginia, as well as elevated
places in our TN mountains. Will forego headlines at the moment due
to uncertainties in coverage, and just highlight here and also in
the HWO.

Looking ahead, zonal flow is in place across the region on Friday,
with a shortwave moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valley areas
early Saturday as the eastern CONUS transitions to synoptic scale
troughing. There's not much phasing of southern and northern stream
energy with this Saturday impulse, with the forecast area largely
shown to be beneath confluent upper level flow and a dry region
between two areas of precip associated with the northern/southern
stream jets for Saturday. We have some slight chance PoPs over a
large chunk of the CWA on Saturday morning and that looks perfectly
reasonable to me at this time.

Additional upper level energy and another cold front will sweep
through the region Sunday and Sunday night, for more chances of
widespread rainfall. There doesn't appear to be any severe storms or
flooding concerns with this system, just some much needed widespread
rainfall.

First half of next week looks largely dry, but upper troughing
continues over the eastern CONUS next week so additional systems and
rainfall are at least possible the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Areas of -RADZ continue across East Tennessee but should move away
from TAF sites by 19z or 20z at the latest. Afterwards, expect
VFR conditions to last through late tonight before fog development
becomes a possibility. Currently have some VSBY restrictions
mentioned at KTYS and KTRI where fog appears most likely. There
was quite a bit of rain at KCHA too, and temperatures will be cool
tonight, but think there will be enough high clouds to prohibit
fog there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 74 52 79 / 0 0 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 72 51 77 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 42 72 50 77 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

061
FXUS64 KMRX 081051 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Cold temperatures expected this morning. Areas to the north and
sheltered valleys in higher terrain may see patchy frost. See
Special Weather Statement for details.

- Generally low rain chances through the forecast period, with the best
chance early next week with a frontal system.

- Temperatures will range from just below normal to near normal through
the period. Possible return of cold morning lows Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the
west. Our area will almost be smack dab in the middle of northern
and southern stream disturbances, and that is evident looking at the
sum of days 1 through 7 WPC QPF. The greatest moisture will remain
to our south over the Gulf states and southeast. For the week, our
area will generally exhibit zonal to northwesterly flow. It'll be
dry today with a possible brush of isolated showers Saturday. Area
wide rain tries to set up late Sunday into Monday, with the arrival
of a frontal system. Thereafter, the forecast dries out with a
potential northern system mid week or so.

Due to drier conditions and high pressure overhead this morning,
clear skies, calm winds, and temperatures near or below 40 degrees,
patchy frost development is possible across portions of the northeast
and southwest Virginia. A Special Weather Statement through 9 am ET
covers the counties we think may have the best shot. Much of the
rest of the forecast area may be too warm, or not get the drier air
in time. And clouds are actually streaming in across southern
portions of the CWA, which would further inhibit stout decoupling.
Under peak mixing later today, minimum RHs could sink into the 30s
and 40s percent. Shouldn't be any increased fire weather threat due
to recent rain and winds will be light this afternoon.

Once we warm later today, temperatures will be on an incline through
Sunday. The aforementioned frontal system will send temperatures
downward again Monday and especially early Tuesday, where lows that
morning could return to the 30s and 40s again. Then a gradual
recovery of temperatures until the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next couple hours, with VFR conditions
and light winds expected for the rest of the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 53 80 57 / 0 10 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 51 77 55 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 50 78 53 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 46 74 50 / 0 0 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

156
FXUS64 KMRX 081839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Another cold front by Monday, but only light rainfall amounts
expected. Potential for patchy frost into Tuesday morning.

- No significant weather concerns otherwise over the next week,
more low to medium rain chances next Wednesday, mild
temperatures for mid May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Not a lot of rain in the next 7 days in total QPF, so good news for
those who love drought. The HRRR is sporting a few low-topped
showers on Saturday, but overall ensemble blends aren't as
supportive. Could see a lucky isolated shower or two. As we head
into the weekend, yet another longwave trough over the Eastern US
helps to kick a cold front down into the Mid South. Showers, and
potentially a couple thunderstorms, will traverse the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Unfortunately, while PWATs will be
elevated as expected ahead of the front, there's no real steady
surge of moisture laden air northwards, and relatively weak dynamics
will combine to only bring light rainfall to the whole of the
region. For those that didn't receive a lot of rain (Knoxville and
north), don't expect anything truly beneficial. Marginal shear and
even more marginal CAPE profiles aren't supportive of any strong
thunderstorm threat, either.

Temperatures through all of this are generally mild to cool to mild
again. Patchy frost is possible across northern TN into southwestern
VA and the mountains Tuesday morning after the cold front brings
cooler air in. A gentle warming trend takes place thereafter.

By mid to late next week, another longwave trough enters the Great
Lakes region of the Eastern US, with a vorticity lobe orbiting
through the southern extent passing through. This is a northern
system, and overall light QPF fields in the deterministic guidance
lends credence to the NBM's pitiful rainfall amounts. A longer range
outlook from our national center depicts continued below average
precipitation outlooks in the 6-10 day range and extended periods.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR likely through the next 24 hours. There's a low probability for
more fog tomorrow morning, but not confident enough to include it in
any TAF site, even KTRI. A few gusts across the area tomorrow
midday, up to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 78 55 82 / 0 10 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 50 79 54 82 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 74 50 79 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

322
FXUS64 KMRX 091054 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Mostly dry weekend, with increasing rain chances associated with
a cold front late Sunday into Monday. Not expecting strong or
even severe storms.

- Another potential frontal passage brings a chance of rain
around mid to late next week.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and
southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the
west. Towards the end of the forecast period though, synoptics
appear to change with ridging moving back in from the west. Just
outside of the forecast period, temperatures potentially warming
above normal at the beginning of next weekend. For the forecast
period, our area will generally exhibit quasizonal to northwesterly
flow. It'll be mostly dry today with a very low outside chance of a
shower for the southern CWA this morning and SW Virginia this
afternoon.

After a brief recovery of temperatures expected this weekend, a cold
front will barrel through sometime early Monday. This looks like
just a low-end rainfall with maybe a quarter of an inch, at best.
QPF trends have turned downward. Some may not even see rainfall at
all. The only real thing going for this system will be the bulk
shear in place, everything else is either too weak or non-existent
for any strong to severe storm potential. We won't really get much
moisture return before the arrival of the system and the timing
doesn't really allow anything surface based. The area with the best
chance of thunder will be the southern plateau and valley, closer to
the better dynamics, as depicted by the SPC Outlook.

Temperatures markedly cooler Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of
the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians and SW Virginia may
see possible frost Tuesday morning, where temperatures are forecast
to be in the upper 30s so far. An element that may work against it
will be winds possibly still coming down from somewhat breezy
northerly winds earlier in the day Monday.

Much of the rest of the week will be dry with temperatures warming
Tuesday and afterward. Although, a low pressure center under a
shortwave trough traversing from central Canada, may bring some
light rain to northern portions of the area around mid to late week.
Dry after with northwesterly flow and a ridge on our doorstep from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Clouds at CHA will be near the MVFR/VFR margins this morning, but
are expected to lift/scatter by the afternoon. Some broken VFR
cigs will be around TYS and TRI today, with winds around 10 kt.
Mostly clear conditions and light/calm winds will return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 84 60 / 0 0 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 50
Oak Ridge, TN 78 53 82 56 / 10 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

749
FXUS64 KMRX 091855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Morning fog possible for Mother's Day. Very low chance of a
shower tomorrow evening, meager rainfall tomorrow night into
Monday morning.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and
southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

- Another potential frontal passage brings medium chances for
additional meager rainfall on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Both HRRR and the NAM have some steep inversions near or at the
surface tomorrow morning, so tacked in some mentions of patchy fog
for the early morning hours.

Well, the trend is not our friend to bust the drought. Vertical
profiles for tomorrow have gotten more inhospitable to hydrometeor
production, with hardly any CAPE around on guidance, and mostly
sunny skies helping to mix the afternoon RHs fairly low. It'll be a
slightly above normal day temperature wise, but should be great
weather for anyone with surprise plans. When the front and upper jet
get here late Sunday night, we'll get enough divergence to power
light rain showers for much of the area, but the lack of quality
moisture advection means resulting QPF is extremely low.

Arguably the biggest obvious impact (other than the potential for
fog in the morning) is the potential for more patchy frost Tuesday
morning as temperatures again drop into the 30s across portions of
northern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, along with the
mountains of East Tennessee. Beyond Tuesday we'll enter another
rebound to warmer weather. A weak upper disturbance attempts to give
rainfall on Wednesday, but much like Monday morning ensemble QPF
with this system is also really poor, if any.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR TAFs through the period. A few gusty winds this afternoon
before winds once again relax following the diurnal trend. Very
low chance for fog tomorrow morning at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 60 76 / 0 10 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 82 58 72 / 0 0 50 30
Oak Ridge, TN 52 83 56 72 / 0 0 40 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 79 53 68 / 0 0 60 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

816
FXUS64 KMRX 101039 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Patchy dense fog possible early this morning. Be careful on your
morning commute.

- Mostly dry today, with increasing rain chances tonight
associated with a cold front. Overall, light accumulation with
nothing strong expected.

- Another cold front around Wednesday to bring the next potential
round of light rainfall.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with 80s to near 90 degree
highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

There is the possibilty of some patchy dense fog this morning, so if
you will be commuting early on this Mother's Day, take caution.

Troughiness will continue to hold strong for much of the week with
quasizonal to northwesterly flow across the area. Due to such, the
lack of moisture return and southwesterly flow will result in a
fairly weak cold frontal passage later today and late tonight. In
fact, it will be quite dry much of the day with minimum RHs falling
into the 30s and 40s percent range. Total QPF from the system
continues to shift more north and generally light, with amounts in
the hundredth to tenth range. Before the system's exit,
northwesterly flow induced showers may keep the chances going,
especially across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures markedly cooler tomorrow into Tuesday morning. The
potential for frost Tuesday morning has lessened with this latest
forecast. Lows may be near 40 or warmer now instead of in the upper
30s. Still perhaps a chance in the highest elevations of SW Virginia
and NE Tennessee.

A low pressure system that will shift down from central Canada
and traverse the Great Lakes will bring the next cold front to
the area around Wednesday. The core of the moisture of this system
appears it will stay well north. So, another chance of possible
light accumulation mid-week.

After cooler temperatures Thursday, a noticeable warming trend will
begin and bring some hot temperatures next weekend. The locked in
troughing will finally shift east and be replaced by ridging from
the west. Above average temperatures will continue a week beyond the
forecast, according to the CPC. Mostly dry weather can be expected
the end of the week and into the weekend with possible light rain
chances the middle of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next hour or two. VFR conditions will
pervail at all sites through the rest of the period. Broken VFR
cigs will increase tonight, with a chance of showers arriving near
12Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 60 76 52 / 0 20 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 57 73 48 / 0 20 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 56 73 47 / 0 40 50 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 52 69 42 / 0 40 60 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

074
FXUS64 KMRX 101912
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Meager rainfall late tonight into midday Monday.

- Another system on Wednesday may bring light rain to primarily
locations north of Knoxville.

- Summer-like heat arrives next weekend with 80s to near 90
degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Only real change over the last several forecast iterations has been
the timing of the rain gradually shifting further into the day on
Monday. Could still see some light showers/sprinkles late tonight,
but the vast bulk of hardly anything is now expected Monday morning
into around early afternoon. The HRRR has a few locations in our far northeastern counties getting slightly over a quarter of an inch,
though REFS probabilities at that threshold aren't even over 40%.
Locations Knoxville and south can expect even less to zero.

Temperatures for Tuesday morning incremented slightly warmer, though
given clear skies I still would be wary of some patchy frost in
portions of the high elevations and southwest Virginia. Fog is also
possible thanks to the light rain. Additional light rain chances,
and maybe (maybe!) a rumble of thunder in northeastern TN and north
on Wednesday as a second upper trough pivots through. Upper heights
rise thereafter and we start to see a more significant return flow
from the Deep South, the combination of which means we enter a more
legitimate warm up next weekend with a potential arrival of 90F
weather for the southern valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Clouds will gradually increase in advance of an approaching cold
front. TAFs to remain VFR and dry until roughly 12z, when
uncertainty over MVFR potential increases while light rain showers
cross from west to east through the end of the TAF period. Not
confident if any terminal will drop to MVFR conditions, but some
potential is present region wide. Winds to remain light with a
northerly pivot with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 76 50 80 / 10 30 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 73 46 77 / 20 60 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 73 45 77 / 30 50 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 68 41 73 / 40 60 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

221
FXUS64 KMRX 111052 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Increasing rain chances today associated with a cold front.
Overall, light accumulation north of the southern valley and
plateau, and SW North Carolina.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential
round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with upper 80s to low 90
degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Not much rain had fallen yesterday up until this very time. A few
sites recorded a few hundredths of an inch from afternoon showers.
The rain potential with the anticipated cold front has shifted later
and continues to change on amounts. Totals have increased for some,
with the possibility of just over a quarter of an inch.
Unfortunately, the southern plateau, valley, and SW NC may not see
anything. According to surface analysis, the cold front currently
slices diagonally across our area. The majority of the rain will
fall early in the day with low chances for thunder. Upslope induced
terrain showers may fire some thunderstorms later this afternoon
before the complete exit of the system. HREF probs doesn't even
depict CAPE of 500 J/kg or above.

The much drier air behind the front doesn't arrive until later in
the day today. Tomorrow morning lows are continuing to show
temperatures generally above 40 degrees. Wind over the highest
terrain may prevent full decoupling. That said, the frost potential
is very low from where it was 48 hours ago. Tomorrow and Wednesday
we warm a little compared to today, but another cold front will
sweep through from the north. Yet another shot at light
precipitation sometime Wednesday from this next system. The core of
the moisture appears it'll stay well north. Currently, QPF totals
much lighter compared to today's system, with again, favorability
for the northern parts of the forecast area.

Much cooler temperatures again Thursday and into Friday morning,
where it appears 40s for lows just don't want to leave us quite yet.
Only a very short lived dip, because we will turn a hard corner
going into the weekend. The locked in troughing will finally shift
east and be replaced by ridging from the west. Low 90s are possible
for the southern valley next Sunday. True southwesterly flow will
also return, where dew points may even crack into the 60s. Hot and
humid may actually finally arrive. Above average temperatures
expected to continue a week beyond the forecast, according to the
CPC. As far as precipitation is concerned, mostly dry weather can be
expected the end of the week and into the weekend with possible
outside chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers are spreading across the northern half of the area
this morning, affecting TYS and TRI in the next few hours, and
exiting around 18Z. TYS should stay mainly VFR with the light
rain, but a brief drop to MVFR vis cannot be ruled out. TRI will
likely have some heavier showers that produce MVFR vis/cigs for a
few hours this morning. CHA is expected to stay dry. Winds will
be from a N direction today behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 52 79 57 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 48 77 55 / 60 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 47 77 53 / 60 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 43 73 49 / 90 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

449
FXUS64 KMRX 111830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Colder tonight, with some patchy fog expected across areas that
received rainfall earlier today.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential
round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas. Gusty
winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through
the day are also expected.

- The heat gets turned up this weekend/early next week with upper
80s to low 90 degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Colder tonight. Clearing conditions may lead to patchy fog,
especially across areas that received measurable rainfall.

A pleasant day is expected on Tuesday with drier air in place, sunny
skies, and near normal temps.

Our next shot at rain, and perhaps a few storms, arrives on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. QPF is still expected to be on the
lighter side and continues to favor our northern areas. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms in place just to our north/northeast
and east in portions of WV/VA. There will be plenty of shear but
little to no instability. Current LREF joint-probs show around a 30
to 50% chance to see a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE and at least
30kts of bulk shear. Much higher probs are in place to our
north/northeast and east, which is where the current day 3 marginal
exists. It's not out of the question that a few strong storms clip
our most northern areas but the risk is quite low as of now. Stay
tuned. Additionally, due to the increase in the 850mb jet, wind
gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the highest peaks
of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also
expected across valley locations.


Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers have pushed east of the area. Forecasting VFR
through the period at our TAF sites but some of our other sites
are currently reporting MVFR conditions. It's not out of the
question that TRI sees a brief period of MVFR this afternoon but
not confident enough to include in TAFS. Additionally, some patchy
fog is expected tonight, but will omit fog from TAFS for now due
to low confidence in coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 80 58 82 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 74 50 74 / 0 0 10 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

437
FXUS64 KMRX 121019 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Cool start today, with patchy morning fog possible. Otherwise
sunny and pleasant.

- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with chances for
light rain highest north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty winds across
the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through the day are also
expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives next weekend. Highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be pleasant, with dry conditions across the board and
plenty of sun thanks to surface high pressure and some slight height
rises aloft. Despite the cool start to the day, temperatures will
rebound into the 70s for low elevation areas and possibly near 80
for the southern TN valley.

The next shortwave will drop out of the midwest and into the Ohio
valley tonight into Wednesday, with the cold front moving through
the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain
chances ramp up during the day Wednesday, but primarily north of the
I-40 corridor which is closer to the stronger upper support to our
north. Lesser rain chances exist in the south. Regardless, QPF with
this event will be quite light, with well less than 0.10" expected.
There remains an outside chance of a stronger storm impacting our
far northern areas on Wednesday. Ensemble data continues to show
joint probabilities in the 30-50 percent range for at least 300 J/kg
worth of instability along with 30kt of shear for Wed afternoon and
evening. However, the odds of seeing strong to severe storms on Wed
seem pretty low overall. Additionally, H85 winds increase Wed which
should be sufficient for some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
for the highest peaks of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph
gusts are also expected across valley locations.

Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast this period, with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 82 54 / 0 0 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 55 79 51 / 0 0 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 55 79 49 / 0 0 50 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 74 45 / 0 0 60 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

228
FXUS64 KMRX 121840
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, on Wednesday. Low
confidence, but a few strong storms possible across northeast TN
into southwest VA. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the
east TN mountains are also expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives this coming
weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the
valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected overnight, with
most areas in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow, a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few storms are expected
to develop along and just ahead of the front. Though the risk is
low, there is still the potential to see a few strong storms across
northeast TN into southwest VA. The marginal risk for severe storms
has shifted south and now include these aforementioned areas. The
main driver for this marginal risk is still primarily due to the
shear that will be in place with 40 to 50kts of bulk shear. The
main limiting factor continues to be instability. Like the LREF in
previous days, the HREF retains the roughly 40 to 60% probs of
seeing at least 500 J/kg CAPE. The driver of this lower
instability are the dewpoints, models generally show dewpoints in
the lower 50s. It's hard to get severe weather with dewpoints
this low. If we do see any strong stronger storms, isolated
damaging winds is the primary hazard.

Aside from the showers and storms, winds across the east TN
mountains still look breezy/gusty with this system. Wind gusts from
20 to 30 mph are expected across the higher elevations during the
afternoon and possibly up to 40 mph Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected
across valley locations.


We see a brief cooldown on Thursday behind the front, but with
plenty of dry air and sunshine returning. Thursday night will be a
tad chilly again with lows back down into the low to mid 40s for
most areas.


Temperatures ramp up this coming weekend and into early next week as
ridging returns. Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s look likely by
Sunday through early next week. There are still some chances for
showers and storms in the forecast on Saturday but models have
shifted the precip a little further north due to the strength of the
ridge. We may end up with a situation where our northern areas see
some precip but we are dry across the southern TN Valley.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds expected during
the near term but southwesterly winds pickup toward the end of the
period and will continue into Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 82 53 76 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 49 72 / 0 40 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 55 79 48 72 / 0 40 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 74 45 67 / 0 70 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

007
FXUS64 KMRX 131034 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, this afternoon and
evening from a cold front. Low confidence on if any storms can
become strong across northeast TN into southwest VA. Damaging winds
the primary threat.

- Summer-like temperatures arrive this weekend, persisting into
next week, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A cold front is expected to arrive this afternoon and evening. Areas
with possibly the best accumulation from this system will be the
north and east. Very southern reaches of the valley and plateau may
miss out this round. Perhaps a heavier storm may provide a bit more
QPF than what the forecast shows, but amounts are generally a
quarter of an inch or less. SPC places some of SW Virginia and a
little part of NE Tennessee within the marginal risk for later
today. The primary hazard will be gusty winds. A point forecast
sounding in the middle of the SW Virginia counties around 18Z
outputs a marginal severe threat with a bit over 40KT westerly bulk
shear and CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Dew points rising into
the low to mid 50s with convergence along the front, and topographic
forcing, will lead to some storm development. Steepening lapse rates
may also contribute to the damaging wind potential. Gusty day-time
winds in the valley and over higher elevations can be expected today
as well.

Much cooler tomorrow into Friday morning with highs in the 60s and
70s and lows Friday morning returning to the 40s, with possible
upper 30s across the highest terrain. An outside chance of frost
possible for the coldest spots of the Southern Appalachians.

Thereafter, cold mornings may just become a thing of the past when
the heat switch gets flipped for this weekend and into next week.
Stout ridging expanding into Canada will be shifting eastward. Flow
becomes flattened but not before another amplification of the ridge
early next week. The warming trend begins Friday afternoon, but the
80s and 90s begin Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation chances the
rest of the forecast period following today's front, will generally
be low. A shortwave Saturday may bring some low-end shower and storm
chances. Our next frontal system appears it won't be until the
middle of next week, just outside of this forecast period.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Broken clouds today will remain at VFR levels for the majority of
the day, but a line of showers will cross the area this
afternoon/evening. A PROB30 will mention these showers with MVFR
vis, and TS at TRI. Winds will be gusty at TYS and TRI today, from
the SW, then shift to W-NW in the evening behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 53 75 48 / 10 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 49 72 45 / 40 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 78 49 72 44 / 40 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 45 67 41 / 60 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

613
FXUS64 KMRX 131821
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
221 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Will see a few showers and possibly thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Still low confidence on if any storms can
become strong to severe mainly northeast TN into southwest VA,
but if so damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Big warm up for the weekend into early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms expected to
arrive by next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through this
afternoon/early evening along with a few showers and possibly
thunderstorms. Convective energy continues to look quite limited
but given the significant shear and a brief uptick in DCAPE, if
any stronger storms are able to develop there continues to be a
marginal threat of damaging winds especially across portions of SW
VA and NE TN.

Cooler and drier air will push in behind the front for Thursday and
Thursday night. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 40s
for most folks, but a few may see upper 30s.

Upper level ridging will build in Friday, setting the stage for a
strong warm up. Temperatures by the weekend into early next week
will be well above normal, and high temperatures will flirt with 90
across portions of the valley during the Sunday through Tuesday time
frame. It looks mostly dry for Friday through early next week. Weak
short wave energy does slide by to our north and this may bring a
few showers or storms Saturday mainly northern areas, although
models continue to trend drier for our area.

The next front is forecast to be approaching by the end of the
period although timing is quite uncertain that far out. With the
expected approach of the front, chances for showers and storms will
increase a bit for Tuesday and more significantly for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 74 47 81 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 45 78 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 49 71 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 66 41 74 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

687
FXUS64 KMRX 141037 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Warm up for the weekend into early next week with
highs around 10 degrees above normal.

- Dry airmass for Thursday and Friday will produce low afternoon
relative humidity.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrive next
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Cold front has pushed through most of the region with drier airmass
moving into the southern Appalachians.

For Thursday, dry northwest winds around the back side of a deep
upper trough over the eastern seaboard will produce mostly sunny sky.
Pressure gradients will remain fairly tight so northerly winds
gusting up to 20 mph. The dry airmass will produce low afternoon
relative humidity in the upper 20s and 30s.

For Friday, the upper flow will become more zonal with heights and temperatures moderating. Moderating temperatures and continued dry
airmass with surface ridging over the area will produce low
afternoon relative humidity in the 20s.

Ensemble cluster analysis are in agreement with a deepending upper
trough across the Great Basin into the high plains. This trough will strengthen the upper ridge over the southeast United States into the Appalachians allowing for a warm up into the weekend and early next
week. Continued surface ridging into across the southeast will keep
Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and unseasonably warm
conditions are anticipated for Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be around 10 degrees above normal.

For Tuesday through Thursday, upper flow becomes more west southwest
and surface ridge weakens allowing for greater moisture return. A
series of short-waves/jet streaks will move along the upper flow to
produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence is low in coverage but expect greatest probability across
the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period, with winds around 10 kt today.
CHA may have some gusts near 20 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 47 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 45 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 71 44 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 41 74 50 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

075
FXUS64 KMRX 141822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Chilly tonight,then a warming trend with very warm conditions
by Sunday through early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

We start the period with an upper trough centered to our east and
a ridge to our west. After a cool afternoon today, tonight will
see temperatures dip into the lower to mid 40s in most locations
and a few spots may see lows in the upper 30s. Friday will be a
bit warmer with highs not far from seasonal normals. Also,
relative humidity values will be quite low Friday afternoon.


Upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS through the weekend
and into early next week bringing a significant warm up for our
area, and continued surface ridging across the southeast will keep
Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and very warm conditions
are anticipated for Saturday through Tuesday. High temperatures will
make a run at 90 degrees across much of the valley during the Sunday
through Tuesday time frame, and may reach or exceed 90 in some
locations. There may be enough moisture return by Tuesday for a few
showers or storms in the afternoon, especially over the terrain.

By Wednesday and Thursday models show the upper ridge weakening and
moisture increasing over the region. While the details are uncertain
that far out models generally show some short wave energy moving
through and a weak cold front sagging slowly toward the area from
the north and northwest, leading to an increase in coverage of
showers and storms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Possible fog development toward sunrise especially TRI is the only
concern, but right now the probability of restricted visibility
looks too low to warrant inclusion. Will have a VFR forecast for
the period all sites. Winds will be north and northwest around
10kts to start, then will generally be light after sunset this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 80 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 78 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 43 78 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

429
FXUS64 KMRX 150551
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
151 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- A warming trend with very warm conditions Sunday through early
next week. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Main weather feature for Friday into early next week will be a
building upper ridge over the southeast United States.

For Friday and Saturday, surface ridging over the southeast United
and southern Appalachians will keep moisture return limited. The dry
airmass and warmer temperatures will produce low afternoon relative
humidity in the 20s and lower 30s today and 30s for Saturday.

For Sunday, surface ridging weakens allowing for return of some
boundary layer moisture into the southern Appalachians.
Deterministic GFS is quite bullish for diurnal terrain convection
but ensembles say differently. Given the drought conditions, low
confidence of convection returning and will follow the drier
ensemble solutions.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper ridge builds more into the southern
Appalachians helping to suppress convective development and
producing unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a good deal of uncertainty as upper
ridge weakens due to a series of short-waves/jet streaks moving
across the mid-section of the nation into the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley. A frontal boundary will move into the Tennessee valley. Some
of the models keep this boundary over the area maintaining a
continued chance of convection, while the ECMWF shows the front
moving south of the area by Thursday. Ensembles keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms going for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Potentially some fog early this morning near KTRI, with current
observations very close to saturation already. Uncertain on fog
formation though, so left it as a MVFR TEMPO and will metwatch.
Otherwise VFR TAFs with generally light winds underneath high
pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 78 53 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 50 82 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

952
FXUS64 KMRX 151831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- A warming trend is expected with highs rising well into the 80s
to around 90 by Sunday into early next week.

- The next widespread chances for showers and storms returns by
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Currently this afternoon, a trough/closed low is located to our
northeast with high pressure centered over the southeast. This
will promote a continuation of dry conditions with recent height
rises allowing for the beginning of a warming trend. On Saturday,
the Bermuda High will strengthen to our east, leading to
increasing southerly flow and highs reaching well into the 80s
across the region. Rain chances approach from the north due to the
jet over the Great Lakes, but our region still looks to stay dry.
By Sunday, ridging will increase across the eastern U.S. ahead of
deepening troughing in the Rockies and a developing surface low.
This will lead to further height rises and temperatures likely
approaching 90 degrees for most valley locations. With some
increase in moisture, isolated diurnal convection is possible
along the mountains, but most places are likely to remain dry.

By Monday, the system to the northwest will advance into the
Great Plains, leading to a further increase in southerly flow for
the eastern U.S. 500mb heights will reach 5,880 to 5,900 meters,
typical of July. This makes the case for most of the region to
reach or exceed the 90-degree mark. By Tuesday, the Great Plains
system will track up into Canada with a frontal boundary setting
up to the west. As this frontal boundary approaches later in the
week, rain chances will increase locally. Currently, the
environment looks to be typical of the summer with limited shear
and marginal instability. At a minimum, hopefully much needed rain
is received by some, but drought is likely to worsen with the heat
beforehand.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Limited cloud cover and southerly to southwesterly winds are
expected for the rest of the day. Overnight, winds will become
light and variable with cloud cover increasing around 10,000 to
15,000 feet AGL. Fog is currently not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 86 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 54 85 60 89 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

578
FXUS64 KMRX 160719
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
319 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- Unseasonably very warm temperatures are in the offing for this weekend
through early next week. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal especially for Sunday through Tuesday.

- The next widespread chance for showers and storms returns for
mid-week next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Main weather feature for this weekend into early next week will be
an upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. Main impact will be unseasonably very warm
temperatures especially for Sunday through Tuesday. Highs will be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

Deterministic GFS continues to show scattered convection across the
terrain features for Sunday. Due to continued surface ridging into
the southeast United States and drought conditions, moisture return
will be slow and feel NBM dewpoints/RH are too high. Given the
expected drier environment GFS QPF is likely way overdone. Ensemble
QPF also shows a drier bias with the storms Sunday. Overall, dry
conditions will prevail through Tuesday.

A deeper upper trough will move into the mid-section of the nation
by Wednesday helping to flatten the upper ridge over the region. A
frontal boundary will also approach the Tennessee valley by late in
the day Wednesday. These features will help to increase chances of
showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Ensemble mean CAPE suggest values of 1000-1500 but shear is quite
limited. Overall, instability parameters and shear do not look
favorable for severe storms.

For Thursday and Friday, the coverage of showers and storms will be
dependent on how fast frontal boundary pulls south of the region.
Currently, ensemble shows this boundary slowly pulling southward
keeping scattered coverage of convection. Instability will be
limited with values of 500 or less.

Overall QPF amounts for mid to late next week is between 0.25 and
0.5 inch which will do limited help with ongoing drought
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR and dry weather to continue the next 24 hours. Fog is not
expected early this morning. A few gusts to 15 knots this
afternoon at TYS under southwest flow. Otherwise winds will
generally be light and follow normal diurnal trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 62 90 65 / 0 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 61 90 65 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 60 89 63 / 0 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 87 60 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

393
FXUS64 KMRX 161831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- Very warm temperatures are expected the rest of this weekend into
this upcoming week. Many places will reach near 90 degrees Sunday
through Tuesday.

- More widespread chances for showers and storms return Wednesday
through Friday with temperatures back closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Currently this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with
embedded shortwaves aloft and troughing over the Rockies. The upper
jet is over the Great Lakes with the Bermuda High strengthening to
our east. This has promoted increasing southerly flow and the
continuation of dry and warmer temperatures. With better moisture
and upper-level flow, convection will continue to our north but
remaining dry in our area. On Sunday, troughing to the west will
advance through the Rockies, leading to increasing ridging in the
eastern U.S. 500mb heights will rise to 5,860m, near the normals for
summer, pushing high temperatures near 90 across many places.

On Monday, troughing will eject out of the Rockies with an initial
surface low tracking up into Canada. This will soon be followed by a
secondary low that tracks into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. As
moisture remains limited in our area, most places will stay dry on
both days, outside of isolated diurnal convection along the higher
terrain. The continued southerly flow and height rises will keep
temperatures near 90 degrees for many areas.

More widespread rain chances return by Wednesday as the front
associated with the secondary low approaches from the northwest, in
addition to moisture advection. With the front indicated to linger
around the region, off and on showers and storms will continue
through the end of the week. There is uncertainty as to how far
south the front will progress, which would impact the coverage and
overall rain totals. But, hopefully this pattern can provide desperately-needed rain with the environment not supportive of
anything too organized in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions and southwesterly winds are expected for the rest
of the day. Winds will become light and variable overnight with
some high clouds and no fog expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 90 65 89 / 0 10 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 60 89 63 89 / 0 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

343
FXUS64 KMRX 170620
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
220 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- Very warm temperatures are expected the rest of this weekend
into this upcoming week. Many places will reach near 90 degrees
Sunday through Tuesday.

- More widespread chances for showers and storms return Wednesday
through Friday with temperatures back closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Main weather feature for Sunday into early next week will be an
upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern
Appalachians. Main impact will be unseasonably very warm
temperatures especially for Sunday through Tuesday. Highs will be 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

For Sunday, HREF and deterministic models are coming into agreement
with a mid-level wave and increased 700-850mb winds rotating
northward from Georgia into east Tennessee/southern Appalachians.
HREF shows PWs increasing with CAPES of 1000-1500 in the afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
by late afternoon/evening especially across the higher elevations
and near the Georgia state-line. Airmass will be charactered by high
cloud base with decent mid-level dry air and lapse rate. These
features may produce isolated strong/gusty winds. HREF also denotes
the possibility of strong winds with the stronger storms. Low
confidence but possible.

This wave moves out of the area Sunday evening with upper ridge with associated subsidence for Monday and Tuesday. Very warm and
mostly dry conditions. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

For Wednesday, the upper ridge weakens over the region with a weak
frontal boundary approaching the area late. Boundary layer flow
becomes more southerly pulling slightly deeper moisture into the
region. Scattered showers and storms may accompany the incoming
front. Instability remains marginal with CAPES of 1000 with limited
shear. At this time, strong to severe storms are not anticipated.

For Thursday through Saturday, a series of short-wave ejects
northeast from Texas/mid-Mississippi valley into the Ohio/Tennessee
valleys. Deeper moisture combined with these waves and possible
frontal boundary near the area will produce periods of scattered
showers and storms. Low confidence on timing of convection. Ensemble
QPF suggests between 0.6-1.2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR and primarily dry conditions are likely today. There's a low
chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the afternoon
and into the early evening hours, PROB30s were added to TYS and
CHA to account for this scenario. Winds will remain generally
light, with a few gusts to 15 knots again at TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 65 89 67 / 10 10 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 65 90 66 / 10 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 89 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 60 90 61 / 0 0 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

982
FXUS64 KMRX 171828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- Isolated storms are possible this evening, especially in southern
areas. Strong winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter are possible,
but coverage is expected to be limited.

- Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next week.

- High temperatures will rise well into the 80s to around 90
degrees for many today through Tuesday, followed by moderation
of temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Currently this afternoon, broad ridging is in place across the
eastern U.S. ahead of deepening troughing over the Rockies. The
Bermuda High continues to strengthen in the Atlantic, leading to
increased southerly flow and temperatures rising near the 90-degree
mark. With moisture advection compared to yesterday, there is a low-
end chance for diurnal convection, especially in the south. While
there's virtually 0 shear, mid-level lapse rates are at or above 7
C/km with MLCAPE rising above 1,000 J/kg. The main question is about initiation, which could end up being very minimal per some of the
CAMs. Any storms would pose a marginal wind and hail threat in this environment. On Monday, troughing to the northwest will lift as it
ejects into the northern Great Plains with a developing surface low
tracking towards the Great Lakes. Locally, 500mb heights will
surpass 5,880m, which is at or above normals for July. Similarly hot temperatures can be expected with slightly less moisture leading to
even lower chances for diurnal storms.

By Tuesday, the cold front associated with the Great Lakes low will
begin to advance towards the Ohio River Valley with the pattern
locally remaining similarly hot and dry. By Wednesday, however, the
front will move through the Ohio River Valley with better moisture
advection out ahead. This will lead to a widespread increase in
chances for showers and storms. Thursday and Friday, the front will
move towards the region before getting pulled back northward into
the weekend. This will keep rain chances elevated for the rest of
the period. At this time, there is still no strong indication of an environment supportive of organized or severe storms, which is also
shown in the CIPS analogs. Isolated stronger storms will be possible
as in most summer convection days. Overall coverage is uncertain
this far out, but hopefully many places see rainfall as Knoxville
and Chattanooga continue to be at the lowest year-to-date rainfall
since 2007.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Isolated storms are possible by early evening, mainly around CHA
and TYS. A TEMPO was included at CHA due to better chances with
VCTS at TYS. It is very possible that storms stay away from both
sites. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will gradually diminish
through the evening with cloud cover generally around 5,000 to
10,000 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 88 66 89 / 10 20 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 66 90 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 89 64 88 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 90 61 88 / 10 20 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

402
FXUS64 KMRX 180619
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

- Very warm temperatures are expected early this week with highs 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from
Thursday through the weekend especially across the higher
elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Main weather feature for Monday and Tuesday will remain an upper
ridge over the southeast United States into the southern
Appalachians. Main impact will be mostly dry and unseasonably very
warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

For Wednesday, ensemble cluster analysis shows a short-wave trough
moving across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. This wave will
begin to weaken the upper ridge over the region and allow a frontal
boundary to approach the area. Surface ridging will also weaken
across the southeast United States allowing for slightly better
moisture return. Lower heights and better PWs will allow for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially over the
Plateau counties. Instability with remain marginal with CAPES of
1000-1500, mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less with little to
no shear. At this time severe storms are not anticipated.

For Thursday, frontal boundary remains near the region with PWs of
1.5-1.7 inches so moisture returns over the area. Instability and
shear remain limited with little to no severe threat, but fairly
good coverage of showers and storms with much needed rainfall.
QPF for Wednesday through Thursday will range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch.

For Friday, frontal boundary lifts north as an upper trough/jet
moves northeast into the mid-west and Ohio valley producing pressure
falls there. The increase in southerly boundary jet will pull
frontal boundary north. Plenty of moisture and instability remains
so scattered showers and thunderstorms developing into the afternoon especially across the terrain features.

For Saturday and Sunday, the southern Appalachians will remain with
plenty of moisture and afternoon instability with upper ridge
building back into the region. More typical warm and muggy
conditions are expected.

Ensemble QPF and WPC depicts from 1 to 1.5 inches across much of the
area from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

A brief period of LLWS to start this TAF period as strong winds
aloft are occurring. Winds are expected to weaken before daybreak.
VFR and dry weather expected today, a few southwesterly wind gusts
to 15 knots Knoxville and south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 66 89 66 / 20 0 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 89 64 88 64 / 10 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 61 88 62 / 20 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

692
FXUS64 KMRX 182259
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

- Very warm temperatures for Tuesday with highs 10 to 15 degrees
above nromal.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from
Thursday through the weekend especially across the higher
elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

Main weather feature through Tuesday night will remain an upper
ridge over the southeast United States into the southern
Appalachians. Main impact will be mostly dry and unseasonably very
warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Near
record highs anticipated.

For Wednesday, ensemble cluster analysis shows a short-wave trough
moved east of Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. This wave will
weaken the upper ridge over the region and allow a frontal boundary
to approach the area. Lower heights and better PWs will allow for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially over the
Plateau counties. Instability with remain marginal with CAPES of
1000-1500, mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less with little to
no shear. At this time severe storms are not anticipated.

For Thursday, frontal boundary remains near the region with PWs of
1.5-1.7 inches so moisture returns over the area. Depending where
frontal resides (GFS suggests across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia) that is where the highest chances of convection
will be. Instability and shear remain limited with little to no
severe threat, but fairly good coverage of showers and storms with
much needed rainfall. QPF for Wednesday through Thursday will range
from 0.10 to 0.50 inch.

For Friday, frontal boundary lifts north as an upper trough/jet
moves northeast into the mid-west and Ohio valley producing pressure
falls there. The increase in southerly boundary jet will pull
frontal boundary north. Plenty of moisture and instability remains
so scattered showers and thunderstorms developing into the afternoon especially across the terrain features.

For Saturday through Monday, the southern Appalachians will remain
with plenty of moisture and afternoon instability with an upper
trough across the southern Plains. This upper trough will slowly
move toward the Tennessee valley. Ensembles and deterministic models
show better instability with possible short-waves ejecting out the
trough across the region. There is a greater threat of stronger
afternoon storms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will
become light overnight, then south and southwest around 10kts or
less during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 68 88 / 0 10 10 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 90 68 88 / 0 0 0 30
Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 65 86 / 0 0 10 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

210
FXUS64 KMRX 190634
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- Very warm temperatures Today and Wednesday with highs roughly 10
to 15 degrees above normal.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday, with
continued chances each day into the weekend, especially across
the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Mostly dry today, NBM has no POPS, but can't rule out a few isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms. Otherwise, very warm with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Near record highs at TYS and TRI.


On Wednesday, models still show a short-wave trough pushing the
ridge east and opening the door for a frontal passage. Showers and
storms will increase in coverage in response to the lower heights
and higher moisture. Highest POPs will be across the east TN
mountains and Cumberland plateau. REFS and LREF instability probs
show high odds that CAPE values will be less than 1000 J/kg. Combine
this with mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less and little to
no shear, severe storms are not expected.

On Thursday the frontal boundary lifts north and back into the area
and provides focus for more showers and storms. The highest POPs
will reside along the frontal boundary. It's hard to say exactly
where it will be within our area. Instability and shear once again
remain limited, so no severe threat for Thursday either.

For Friday, ridging returns and the frontal boundary lifts north
into KY. However, plenty of moisture and instability remains so
scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected.

No real changes during the weekend into early next week period. We
will continue to have an unsettled pattern in place with an
environment conducive to daily showers and storms. Overall, the
severe threat remains low during this time due to lack of shear.

QPF through the period will be very hit or miss. Some areas may see
several inches of rain over the next 7 days while some see far less.
This is due to the scattered nature of the convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR and dry weather expected. An isolated shower or storm is
possible, but like yesterday, coverage will be too minimal for
inclusion. Otherwise generally light winds, a gust to 15 knots is
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 89 66 / 10 0 70 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 50 30
Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 50 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

233
FXUS64 KMRX 191732
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
132 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- Very warm temperatures continue for Wednesday with highs roughly
10 degrees above normal.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms return for Wednesday,
with continued high rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Scattered to isolated showers have popped up this afternoon across
Middle TN, but so far the cap has suppressed convective development
in our area. Some of the activity to our west could reach our
Plateau counties in the next few hours, but coverage should remain
isolated. Can't rule out a few short-lived pop-up showers in our
mountain zones along the TN/NC border.

Convective activity will be greater on Wednesday as the Gulf opens
up a bit more and provides some moisture around 850 mb. We will
still have a dry layer above that, which will limit coverage and
development through dry air entrainment. Shear appear quite weak
too, so convection should be short-lived, and the severe threat
looks low. Areas along and west of I-75 should have the greatest
chance of showers/storms tomorrow, as convection is likely to
develop in the Cumberland Plateau with a slow NE movement.

PW values jump into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range on Thursday as a 850
mb low moves into northern MS/AL, opening the Gulf for deep and
persistent moisture advection. A boundary will extend from the low
across the Plateau into SW VA, acting as a focus for convergence and convective development. PoPs will be categorical across the entire
area, with a chance of thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be
lacking for any organized severe threat, although some gusty
downburts winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday as another low
pressure system crosses AR and lifts the aforementioned boundary
farther north into KY. High PW values in an uncapped environment
will again lead to categorical PoPs across the area in the
afternoon. CAPE and shear appear a bit higher on Friday, mainly in
our southern sections where clouds may scatter enough to enhance
afternoon heating, so we will need to keep an eye on the potential
for some severe storms as we get closer to Friday.

A deep SW flow persists through the weekend and early next week,
with broad troughing over the central US. Disturbances ejecting from
this broad trough will bring several rounds of enhanced rain chances
through early next week, but the timing of these disturbances
remains higly uncertain. Overall, the pattern favors continued high
rain chances each day. The primary impacts will be lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds this afternoon
at TYS will be in the 10-15 kt range, then drop to around 5 kt near
sunset. Some gusty winds and showers/storms are possible tomorrow
afternoon, but only near the very end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 89 66 86 / 0 60 40 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 66 84 / 0 40 20 90
Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 64 84 / 0 50 30 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 88 63 82 / 0 30 60 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

227
FXUS64 KMRX 200558
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
158 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue today with highs roughly 10
degrees above normal.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and into the
weekend. A few strong storms are possible today, and perhaps
Friday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Coverage of showers and storms will be greater today due to an
increase in forcing thanks to a weak shortwave and frontal boundary
moving into the area. HREF mean CAPE values are around 500 to 800
J/kg for most of the area. SPC Day 1 Outlook has a marginal risk
in place for northeast TN and our southwest VA counties. This
appears warranted as there will be some low-end 0-6km bulk shear
across these areas; HREF means generally yield around 20 kts. For
this reason, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the
late afternoon/evening hours. The main threats will be small hail
and isolated damaging wind gusts.

Models still showing an increase in PW values, around 1.6 to 1.8
inches, on Thursday. Widespread to numerous showers and storms are
expected areawide through the day. Due to the moisture increase,
some locally to moderate to heavy downpours are expected. The severe
threat is lower than Wednesday though due to an absence of shear.

A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday. In addition,
an area of low pressure will be moving northeast from the lower
Mississippi River Valley and into Missouri. This will allow for
showers and storms across the region. LREF means show low/moderate
instability and low-end 0-6km bulk shear across much of the area. If
this occurs, a few strong to severe storms will be possible
areawide.

Shower and storm chances continue over the weekend and into early
next week as we remain in a southwest flow pattern. With an upper
trough to our northwest, and high pressure to our southeast, several disturbances will move thorugh the southwest flow and across our
region. The environment will continue to be moist and unstable and
will support continued chances for showers and storms each day. The
primary impacts during this timeframe lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

QPF through the next 7 days will widely vary across our area. Some
areas will receive several inches of rain and other areas much less.
Areas that see repeated showers and storms over numerous days will
see the most rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

An unsettled weather pattern begins today. Scattered showers and
TS possible, primarily in the late afternoon into early evening
hours, PROB30s cover the more probable timeframe. Cannot rule out
activity overnight late in the period, though thunder is less
likely. A few gusty winds up to 20 knots outside of any TS,
primarily at TYS. Outside of storms, VFR skies expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 86 66 / 60 40 80 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 84 66 / 40 20 90 50
Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 84 64 / 50 30 90 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 63 82 61 / 30 60 100 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

893
FXUS64 KMRX 201944 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
344 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 343 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, with continued
high rain chances through the first half of next week.

- Organized severe storms appear unlikely during this forecast
period, but the primary threats with storms each day will be
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Convection has gotten off to an early start today in an
increasingly moist air mass, developing in Middle TN and the
Plateau, which is an area of higher surface CAPE values around
1500 J/kg and surface confluence. There is little to no shear to
help sustain or organize these storms, so they will mainly be
driven by outflow boundaries, terrain, and convergence zones.
Expect that coverage will increase in the central and southern TN
Valley over the next few hours. The main hazards will be lightning
and some locally heavy rainfall that could cause minor flooding
issues.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to persist through the
night due to the moisture rich environment, the presence of a
midlevel shortwave trough, and some upper divergence. A front in the
OH Valley region today will move southward and be near our northwest
border by Thursday morning. This will act as a focus for convergence
and convective development Thursday. PoPs will be categorical across
the entire area, with a chance of thunderstorms. Instability and
shear will be lacking for any organized severe threat, although some
gusty downburts winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

A strengthening southerly flow ahead of a low over AR lifts the
aforementioned boundary northward on Friday, putting our area into
the warm sector in the afternoon. LREF joint probabilities of CAPE >
1000 J/kg and shear > 25 kt are around 30% across the area, and near
40% in our southern sections where clouds may scatter enough to
enhance afternoon heating. A few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out for Friday, but the chance remains low.

A deep SW flow persists through the weekend and early next week,
with broad troughing over the central US. Disturbances ejecting from
this broad trough will bring several rounds of enhanced rain chances
through early next week, but the timing of these disturbances
remains higly uncertain. Overall, the pattern favors continued high
rain chances each day. The primary impacts will be lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. QPF through the next 7 days will vary widely
across our area, depending on which areas see repeated showers and
storms over numerous days. Generally speaking, 1-3" of rain is
forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Showers and storms will be near CHA over the next few hours, and may
bring TS with MVFR/ vis/cigs. This activity may spread toward TYS
later in the evening, and potentially to TRI later in the night.
With a moist boundary layer, low clouds at MVFR levels are expected
to form and persist into tomorrow morning, but this may be dependent
on whether showers pass over the terminals this evening. Confidence
of this happening is high at CHA, medium at TYS, and low at TRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 83 65 83 / 70 60 90 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 81 64 82 / 70 90 50 90
Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 63 81 / 70 80 60 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 61 80 / 70 90 50 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

797
FXUS64 KMRX 210642
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- Scattered showers, and a few storms, continue through the night
and into the late morning hours. The risk of severe weather is
little to none.

- Chances for showers and storms continue into early next
week.

- Organized severe storms appear unlikely during this forecast
period, but the primary threats with storms each day will be
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Scattered showers and a few storms will remain across the area
through the night and into the late morning hours. The risk of
severe weather is little to none due to the decrease in instability
across the area. The main impacts overnight with any thunderstorm
will be locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds.

Scattered showers and storms then continue from morning through
the afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave moves across the area.
No severe weather is expected today due to poor lapse rates, and
only modest instability due to an increase in cloud cover, along
with weak shear. Locally heavy rainfall is possible though as PW
values remain elevated at 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Any area that sees
repeated rounds of heavy showers could see some minor flooding
issue.

Frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday and provides focus for
more showers and storms through the day. Shear will be a little
better across the area, and if we can get some breaks in the clouds,
then instability will be as well. SPC only has us outlooked in
general thunder as of now but if the ingredients come together we
could see a few strong to severe storms, but chances are low as of
now.

Showers and storm chances remain in place through the weekend and
into early next week as A deep SW flow persists across the
region. This will set the stage for several disturbances to
move across our region within this SW flow pattern. No notable signs
of any severe threat at the moment but we will continue to
monitor as we approach the weekend timeframe. As we have been
advertising, QPF through the next 7 days will vary widely
across our area, depending on which areas see repeated showers and
storms over numerous days. Generally speaking, 1-3" of rain is
forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Current radar depicts weakening showers moving northward in
southern Tennessee. This trend should continue in the next few
hours. Patchy fog is possible, but very low confidence. A few
showers are possible this morning, though confidence is very low
on coverage and impacts. Otherwise, the most probable time of the
next round of SHRA and TS is this afternoon and evening. Any VIS
or CIG impacts are likely to occur during those storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 65 81 66 / 90 80 90 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 65 82 65 / 100 60 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 78 63 80 63 / 100 70 100 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 61 79 61 / 90 50 90 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

959
FXUS64 KMRX 211902
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
302 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers with some scattered thunderstorms
today through Saturday. The primary threats with storms each
day will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty
winds.

- A wet weather pattern persists through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Showers through the rest of the afternoon and evening will
generally be scattered, with a decreasing trend expected after
sunset as a shortwave trough exits the area. We will still have a
surface boundary lingering nearby, so some low rain chances will
continue through the night. Very little lightning has been
observed so far this afternoon, likely due to the overcast cloud
cover and weak lapse rates aloft.

Models are showing a shortwave trough lifting NE from LA/MS/AL
tomorrow morning, which increases lift across our area starting
around 12Z. A 850 mb jet near 40 kt develops during the day, and
MLCAPE values reach near 800 J/kg in our southern sections in the
afternoon. This may allow for some storms to produce gusty winds
with stronger downbursts, potentially near severe levels. SPC has
included our western half in a Marginal Risk the latest Day 2
Severe Outlook, with winds being the main hazard. Locally heavy
rain may also be a threat given the high moisture content through
the column. Saturday looks pretty similar to Friday, with a
second shortwave trough coming over the region in the afternoon,
leading to occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms through
the day.

Another potential weather impact on Friday and Saturday is gusty
mountain wave winds. A surface CAD ridge east of the mountains
will develop, enhancing the pressure gradient in the NC/TN border
mountains as a couple low pressure areas track from West TN to the
OH Valley. Winds may approach Advisory levels in wind-prone
locations of the mountains and foothills Friday through Saturday.

For Sunday through Thursday, a wet pattern will continue as we
will maintain a deep S to SW flow. Timing of showers and storms
will depend on disturbances in the flow and surface boundaries in
the area, which are difficult to resolve at this time. High PoPs
with low chances of thunderstorms appear to be warranted in this
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

A complex weather pattern this period will mean a low confidence
forecast. Rounds of showers will pass over the terminals through
this evening, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions at times. Showers
should generally decrease through the night, with MVFR cigs
developing late in the night. Additional rounds of showers are
possible tomorrow morning, although details of timing are highly
uncertain at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 78 64 80 / 80 90 90 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 79 64 80 / 60 90 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 62 78 62 79 / 70 90 90 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 77 60 78 / 60 80 90 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

554
FXUS64 KMRX 220545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers with some scattered thunderstorms
through Saturday. The primary threats with storms both Friday and
Saturday will be strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

-Gusty winds in the some of the higher elevations and foothills
Friday and especially Friday night.

- A wet weather pattern persists through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

South to southwest flow aloft will continue to bring Gulf moisture
into our area as we move into the weekend. The weak frontal
boundary just to our north and west will vacillate but will be slow
to make much progress through Saturday. In addition, weak short wave
impulses will move across the area Friday and again Saturday. Given
the abundance of moisture available, we will see multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The low level jet will increase enough
for shear to be a concern both days but especially Friday. The
severe threat will be contingent on if enough convective energy is
able to develop, and the timing and coverage of precipitation during
the day could inhibit diurnal heating although confidence in these
details is still lacking. For now, HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE values
exceed 1000 J/kg over much of the southwestern two thirds of our
area Friday, and the marginal risk of severe storms with damaging
winds the primary threat for Friday remains. A few strong to
marginally severe storms may occur Saturday as well with strong
winds again the primary threat. In addition, heavy rainfall may
cause localized flooding especially if repeated heavy downpours
occur over any given location.

The pressure gradient will increase across the NC/TN border Friday
and Friday night as surface ridging noses down east of the mountains
and surface low pressure tracks by to our west. Models generally
show southerly low level winds increasing across the mountains with
850mb winds reaching the 25 to 40 kt range for a brief time tonight.
Mountain wave enhancement of the winds will likely bring gusty winds
to the usual higher elevation and foothill locations of the E TN
mountain. It still looks marginal for a wind advisory so none will
be issued as yet, but it will bear watching especially for Friday
night.

For Sunday through Thursday, a wet pattern will continue as the deep
S to SW flow remains over the region. Timing of showers and storms
will depend on disturbances in the flow and surface boundaries in
the area, which are difficult to resolve at this time. High PoPs
with low to moderate chances of thunderstorms appear to be warranted
in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Waves of showers and storms will move through the region
throughout this TAF cycle. CIGs will start to lower soon,
remaining low tomorrow. MVFR CIGs are expected through the
overnight hours at TYS and CHA. IFR CIGs are expected through the
overnight hours at TRI. IFR CIGs are likely in the morning hours
at CHA. Some fog may develop late tonight at TRI but confidence is
low. The best chance for thunder at all sites will be tomorrow
afternoon and evening but thunder will be possible anytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 64 80 64 / 90 90 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 64 80 64 / 90 90 100 50
Oak Ridge, TN 78 62 79 62 / 90 90 90 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 60 78 61 / 80 90 100 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

366
FXUS64 KMRX 221905
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Primary
concerns are locally heavy downpours, strong to damaging winds,
and the potential for a few brief and weak tornadoes.

- Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains
and adjacent foothills tonight.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day though the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

The upper level pattern consists of a longwave trough over western
portions of the CONUS and ridging over the southeast. An impulse is
currently traversing mean flow atop the northern Gulf states and
into the Tennessee Valley. A sfc warm front is also draped through
the eastern TN Valley and wrapping back westward toward Memphis,
where an area of surface low pressure is developing. This pattern
has continued to promote numerous showers and storms across the
region. Convective activity will increase in coverage for our county
warning area as the upper shortwave translates across this
afternoon and evening.

Latest RAP and HRRR soundings depict around 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
as a southwesterly LLJ near 40kts promotes effective shear near 25-
30kts. Overall, this setup is conducive for the potential of a few
strong to severe storms. Winds will be the primary threat, however,
sfc-1km shear between 15 to 20kts and 0-3km CAPE around 150-180J/kg
mean that a few weak and brief tornados are also in the realm of possibility... especially if any semi-discrete cells can develop.
Isolated instances of flash flooding could also be possible as a few
locations have had enough rainfall in the short-term that 1hr FFG
has fallen to 1.3-1.5 inches, but overall not strong enough of a
threat to warrant any sort of watch. These threats will exist
through about 10pm this evening.

While we may not stay completely dry, the focus during the overnight
period will transition to strong gusty winds in the mountains and
adjacent foothills as the low-level jet swings across the southern Appalachians. Have decided to hoist a Wind Advisory from Blount
through Unicoi as HREF probabilities of wind gusts GTE to 40mph have
increased to around 50-70%.

Some additional scattered activity is expected as weak impulses
continue to traverse mean flow Saturday, however, shear and
instability profiles will be even less favorable for strong to
severe storms. Ultimately, this pattern will continue for much of
the period as daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast through Friday. Timing and strength of convection is very
uncertain as it will depended on how exactly the small disturbances
evolve with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Showers and storms will move into the region later this afternoon
through the evening hours with the most significant impacts likely
to be at CHA and TYS where low MVFR is expected. TRI's reductions
will be later into the evening and potentially not as significant
as the other two sites. Overnight, rain coverage will decrease
with MVFR likely to linger at CHA. Another impact will be LLWS due
to winds around 2,000 feet AGL reaching or exceeding 30 kts. This
is most noted at CHA and TYS, so LLWS was introduced. This will
decrease after sunrise with another increase in rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 64 83 / 80 80 60 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 63 83 / 90 80 70 80
Oak Ridge, TN 63 79 61 83 / 90 80 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 80 60 83 / 80 100 60 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

928
FXUS64 KMRX 230603
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
203 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

-Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains
and adjacent foothills through early this morning. A Wind Advisory
is still in effect.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
forecast period.

-Warm and muggy conditions with no relief in sight until possibly
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm, muggy, and the unsettled pattern will continue through much of
the forecast period. No real substantial chances to the synoptic
pattern until possibly next weekend. A frontal boundary will be
draped across the region or either to the north or south of us for
the coming days.

An increasing LLJ throughout the day yesterday was one of the main
drivers for the severe weather experienced. It is also the main
driver for the gusty winds currently being recorded over the higher
terrain at this time. It isn't as strong as what we could typically
see in the winter with a stout wedge setup on the other side of the
mountains. But just enough low level southerly to SSE flow over the
mountains is creating around 45 mph gusts. Camp Creek has gusted as
high as 50 mph, but gusts can mainly be expected to remain in the 40
mph range through early this morning. The LLJ is expected to move
off to the north and essentially dampen our severe weather threat
for later today.

For later today severe weather-wise, not expecting any storms to get
as strong. The low level shear will be nearly absent. The SPC has
yet to put out the Day 1 Outlook at the time of this discussion, but
we're not expecting them to extend the MRGL from the Carolina's into
our area. General thunderstorms seem valid. All the other parameters
observed on a forecast sounding would be indicative of short lived
cells capable of gusts, lightning, and heavy rain resulting in
localized flooding. PWs above 1.5", dews in the 70s, CAPEs above
1000, and frontal boundarys nearby, will support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms today and pretty much the entire
holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain the same, outside of a
shower bringing temps down temporarily, in the coming days.

We may transition into a different weather pattern next weekend just
outside of the forecast period, when what appears to be troughing
trying to sink down from the north and east, sending upper heights
downward. Interestingly enough, the CPC beyond the forecast out to
early June, hints at temperatures near normal with perhaps just
below normal to the SE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

CIGs are mostly VFR across the region but will likely lower to
MVFR in the early morning hours. Scattered showers are expected to
develop early this morning and continue through at least the
afternoon hours. Isolated thunder is also possible mainly in the afternoon/evening hours. VFR conditions will likely return outside
of heavy showers tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 64 83 65 / 80 60 80 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 63 83 64 / 80 70 80 70
Oak Ridge, TN 79 61 83 63 / 80 70 80 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 60 83 61 / 100 60 80 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

381
FXUS64 KMRX 231853
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
forecast period.

- Conditions will also be muggy with no relief in sight until
possibly next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

General synoptic pattern will consist of ridging over the
southeastern CONUS and troughing atop the western through the
weekend. A quasi-stationary boundary will continue to lift north and
east along with the associated precip shield that has brought fairly widespread rains today. A line of showers with the occasional
embedded thunderstorm can be noted across middle Tennessee per this discussion. Some additional isolated to scattered activity is
expected to pop up this afternoon, but the bulk of this will remain
along and west of I-75 where a better MLCAPE gradient exists due
greater time for destabilization post soaking rains. Locally gusty
winds possible with any moderate to heavy downpours but severe
weather unlikely.

Additional impulse traversing mean flow aloft will continue to
promote periods of showers and storms possible Sunday. Latest CAMs
admittedly struggle with pin-pointing an exact area and time, but
ultimately the afternoon and evening hours will experience the
greatest probabilities. Though, the better chances for some
morning precip will be along the southern plateau and valley.
General thunderstorm type activity seems to be the most likely
scenario given a lack of shear with no standout LLJ present, and
poor mid-level lapse rates south of 6C/km. MLCAPEs near 1000 J/kg
and PWAT values near 1.5-1.7"(near daily max per KBNA sounding
climatology) in latest HRRR soundings suggest some locally gusty
winds will be possible associated with precip loading in the
strongest convection.

As we head into the new work week, the upper-level flow begins to
shape into an omega-block pattern. Additional disturbances
traversing mean flow aloft and continued anomalous PWAT values
will further promote daily chances of showers and storms
throughout the forecast period. While temperatures will be
seasonable, the high dewpoints will lead to a muggy and sticky
feeling airmass for the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Predominant showers will continue at TRI for a few more hours
this afternoon. A few spotty showers or isolated storm may pop up
near TYS or CHA, though, confidence in this is low so only
included brief PROB30s at this time. Conditions will be largely
VFR outside of any heavier precipitation. MVFR cigs are expected
to develop at CHA overnight, there is potential some additional
precipitation occurs with this but have left as VCSH due to lower
confidence at this time. HREF probabilities of MVFR cigs at
TRI/TYS generally remain 10% or less tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 82 65 82 / 70 80 60 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 64 82 / 50 70 40 90
Oak Ridge, TN 62 82 63 81 / 70 70 60 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 83 60 82 / 20 80 50 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

243
FXUS64 KMRX 240536
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Gusty winds across portions of the East Tennessee mountains and
adjacent foothills for the remainder of tonight.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until
possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Gusty winds over some of the higher elevations and foothills of the
E TN mountains will continue through the remainder of the night as
mountain wave enhancement of the winds is occurring. These winds are
expected to decrease around sunrise. The wind advisory for these
areas will continue through 7 AM.

We stay in a wet pattern for much of the period. The weak frontal
boundary to our north and northwest will meander a bit but not make
much progress over the next several days, and deep south and
southwest flow aloft will keep plenty of Gulf moisture feeding into
our area.

Another weak impulse aloft will bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms Sunday, although exact timing of peak coverage is
still uncertain. Models show PWAT values near 1.5-1.8"(near daily
max of KBNA sounding climatology) Sunday, and shear generally looks
limited while mid level lapse rates are less than 6C/km. Rain rates
should be high but the severe threat looks low with Sunday's
convection. However, depending on how much instability develops
(which will be impacted by the timing/coverage of precipitation), we
may see a few storms bring strong wind gusts in addition to very
heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding.

As we move into the work week, we will continue to see rounds of
showers and storms with timing influenced by additional weak
impulses in the upper flow, but with afternoons expected to see the
highest chances overall. Localized flooding will be a concern for
any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain given
the abundant moisture. While temperatures will be seasonable, the
high dewpoints will lead to a humid and sticky feeling airmass for
the period as well.

Some models are hinting that the front could push to our south late
in the period with drier air moving into our area by Friday or
Saturday. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now,
and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms again
both days, albeit with PoPs trending a bit lower by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Currently, VFR conditions are across the region. MVFR CIGs are
possible in the early morning hours before lifting by late
morning. Multiple rounds of mostly showers with isolated storms
are expected. Best chance for thunder will be in the
afternoon/evening hours but it is hard to narrow down the
timeframe and will be hit and miss. There is a chance for fog at
TRI this morning but confidence is somewhat low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 65 82 66 / 80 60 90 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 82 65 / 70 40 90 80
Oak Ridge, TN 82 63 81 64 / 70 60 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 60 82 61 / 80 50 80 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

747
FXUS64 KMRX 241907
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected this
afternoon. Isolated flooding and gusty winds are the primary
concerns with the strongest activity.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until
possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

H3 ridging is in place over the southeastern CONUS, with an upper
low having developed over the southern plains. This setup continues
to promote enhanced diffluence aloft among an airmass with highly
anomalous moisture availability. Latest mesoscale analysis suggest
PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is well into the 90th
percentile per sounding climatology for KBNA. With an MCV expected
to work north/northeast this afternoon and evening, have decided to
introduce a short-fused Flash Flood Watch. Latest 12Z suite and
hourly runs of CAMs all generally have some variation of swaths of 2
to 4 inch rainfall totals... locations more so isolated and
variable. With 1hr FFGs ranging from 1.8 to as low as 1.2 inches,
and 3 hr FFGs largely 1.5-2.0 inches, isolated flash flooding will
be conditional on training areas of moderate to heavy precipitation.
Overall, the highest confidence of isolated flash flooding is for
areas south of I-40 and along and west of I-75. It is also possible
to see some locally gusty winds under the strongest convection.

Bulk of the rain gradually wanes southwest to northeast tonight,
with the potential for some breezy winds in the mountains as slight enhancement to roughly 25-30kts is expected in the southerly H85
flow. Best chance for some lingering morning Memorial Day showers
will be in the far northeast. A vort max will promote development of additional showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening as upper
diffluence and anomalous PWAT values remain in place. Some
additional isolated flooding issues may arise during this time as
well, but confidence is a little lower as the CAMs have not been in
the greatest agreement on how well activity holds together or how
great the coverage is. This is why the Flash Flood Watch was not
carried through tomorrow evening, allowing us to keep monitoring and
assessing new data as it comes through.

Overall, no significant change is expected in the synoptic pattern
as we head into the mid-week. Daily chances of showers and storms
will continue, and that may come with some flooding concerns
partially conditional on how exactly the previous days activity pans
out. There is also no standout threat for any strong to severe
storms, but with such anomalous PWAT content, heaviest downpours can
also lead to locally gusty winds due to precip loading.

Some models are hinting that a front could push to our south late in
the period, with drier air moving into our area sometime next
weekend. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now
and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms
again both days, albeit, PoPs trending a bit lower by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Unsettled pattern continues with additional showers and storms
moving into the area this afternoon and evening. Maintain
predominant MVFR conditions at KCHA based on latest sfc obs and
radar trends, but there may be a period where they transition to
low VFR for a few before returning to MVFR again tomorrow
morning. Different from previous nights, HREF probs of MVFR or
cigs increase to the 40-70% range for TYS/TRI Monday morning, so
have included a transition to MVFR conditions at those sites as
well. There will be the potential to have some fog or br develop
due to saturated PBL tonight, but due to expected cloud cover,
confidence not high enough to include a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 78 65 81 / 70 90 70 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 78 64 81 / 90 80 70 90
Oak Ridge, TN 63 77 63 80 / 80 80 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 77 61 81 / 80 80 80 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

435
FXUS64 KMRX 250551
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
151 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Another round of showers and storms for Monday into Monday night.
A few storms may have gusty winds, and torrential downpours may
cause flooding in some locations.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the
forecast period.

- Conditions will also be notably humid for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

We stay in a wet pattern for much of the period. The weak frontal
boundary to our north and northwest will meander a bit but not make
much progress through mid-week, and deep south and southwest flow
aloft will keep plenty of Gulf moisture feeding into our area.

The flood watch that has been in effect will not be extended at this
time as the heavier precipitation is waning, and models suggest a
lull before activity picks up again Monday afternoon and/or Monday
evening in response to another weak impulse moving over the area and
an uptick in upper divergence. However, exact timing of peak
coverage is still uncertain. Models show PWAT values near 1.6-
1.9"inches (near daily max of KBNA sounding climatology) Monday, and
shear generally looks low while mid level lapse rates are less than
6C/km. Rain rates should be high but the severe threat looks low
with Monday's convection. However, enough instability may develop
for us to see a few storms bring strong wind gusts in addition to
very heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding.

As we move into mid-week, we will continue to see rounds of showers
and storms with timing influenced by additional weak impulses in the
flow, but with afternoons expected to see the highest chances
overall. Localized flooding will be a concern for any areas that see
repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain given the abundant
moisture. While temperatures will generally be seasonable, the high
dewpoints will lead to humid and sticky feeling conditions at least
through mid week.

Higher uncertainty for the Thursday through Sunday period as models
are not in good agreement. The frontal boundary is forecast to sag
south into or possibly through our area, then will likely stall and
nudge back north again. However, future timing and location of the
front is still highly uncertain. Depending on how far south the
front makes it, there may be a drier period especially north
sometime in the Thursday/Friday time frame. However, overall, the
NBM ensemble approach of keeping showers and storms in the forecast
our area in the Thursday through Sunday time frame looks
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Conditions are currently MVFR across the region with some pockets
of IFR. IFR CIGs are likely by early morning. Some patchy fog is
also possible. CIGs will improve to MVFR by mid morning with VFR
possible tomorrow afternoon. Showers will likely end soon near TYS
but will continue near TRI through at least the morning hours.
Tomorrow afternoon, showers are expected to be more isolated.
Activity will likely pick up after 0Z tomorrow evening. Thunder
chances are too low to include but may be added later if
confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 65 81 66 / 90 70 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 64 81 65 / 80 70 90 80
Oak Ridge, TN 77 63 80 64 / 80 70 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 61 81 62 / 80 80 90 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

139
FXUS64 KMRX 251816
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Showers and storms are expected later today and tonight. These
will be efficient rainfall producing storms, with the ability to
produce localized torrential downpours and flash flooding.
Similar conditions will exist Tuesday.

- Drier air begins to approach from the north for Thursday onward.
Current forecast maintains rain chances area wide through the
weekend, but the trends support a drier pattern, at least across
the north, as we head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

The next 48 hours will feature continued south-southwesterly flow
aloft as we remain situated between a once-closed upper low over
Texas that will open up and drift north into the mid-Mississippi
river valley, and a subtropical ridge aloft centered off the
southeast coastline. Guidance shows high PWAT air continuing to
stream north from the Gulf into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachian region during this time. They're highest today through
tonight (upwards of 1.8-1.9" depending on the guidance source you
look at), but remain above the 90th percentile even into early
Wednesday before drier air impinges on the CWA from the north due
to a deepening upper trough over the northeast CONUS and
associated northerly low and mid level flow. The latter part of
the week well be drier and slightly cooler as a result of that
deepening trough to our north.

Regarding this afternoon through tonight, regional radar imagery
this afternoon shows a couple of MCVs lifting north from the Gulf
coast. One is in central Mississippi, just west of the MS/AL state
line, while another is moving north off the Gulf coast and will
be approaching Hattiesburg in the next few hours. Guidance shows
multiple rounds of convection developing over the region out in
advance of these features, possibly interacting with a stalled
frontal boundary in place across the TN valley. Forecast soundings
show prime warm rain processes through late tonight, with skinny
CAPE profiles with meager values, high freezing levels, and high
PWATs. Surface observations upstream support this and have shown
observed 2"/hr rainfall rates with rather unimpressive looking
showers and thunderstorms in some cases. Locally current 1hr
flash flood guidance in the TN valley ranges from maybe 1.5" in
portions of the southern valley, to less than 1" in the northern
valley near the I-81 corridor. Even the 3hr FFGs are less than 2"
across the board really. So I feel confident in having the flash
flood watch out for a good chunk of our CWA through late tonight.
To be clear, the flooding threat is isolated versus widespread.
But I think it is justified given what occurred yesterday. The
main question is whether it needs to be extended to cover the
convection that is likely tomorrow in essentially the same air
mass and synoptic setup. PWATs are slightly less tomorrow, but
still above the 90th percentile for this time of year, and we'll
likely have convection associated with that trailing MCV lifting
into northern AL and the southern Cumberland plateau (or somewhere
in that general area) tomorrow morning. Will let the evening
shift make the decision on whether to extend or not, but don't be
surprised if it is.

This wet pattern continues into Wednesday, but PWATs begin to
decline by that time and both convective coverage and intensity
should follow suite.

Again, as mentioned, the latter parts of the week will see a
trough deepen across the northeast CONUS and subsequently drier
northerly flow begin to spread into the CWA. Current NBM guidance
maintains some rain chances over much of the CWA Thu onward, with
the higher chances in the south. That seems reasonable for the
time being, but deterministic guidance is already showing the
focus of rainfall chances shifting south in response to the drier
air so I wouldn't be surprised to see those PoPs come down as
time goes on...especially across the northern parts of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

The 18z TAF package is basically a persistence forecast of the
last 24 hours, with another round of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected
across East Tennessee this evening and resulting flight
categories dropping to at least MVFR levels overnight. Guidance
continues to seem too pessimistic with regards to VSBY so I kept
it limited to MVFR. Same for CIGS, although some BKN050-070 CIGS
seem plausible in the stable conditions between rounds of showers
later tonight. Not highly confident on that so have just left a
SCT007 in at KCHA and KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 79 66 82 / 90 80 80 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 65 81 / 80 70 80 90
Oak Ridge, TN 64 79 64 81 / 90 80 80 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 62 80 / 60 80 60 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount
Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-
Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-
McMinn-Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Roane-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN-West
Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

401
FXUS64 KMRX 260547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Periods of scattered rain and thunderstorms to continue. A
complete wash out is not expected, but low potential for flooding
still continues, especially as total rainfall begins to pile on.

- Rain chances remain generally elevated until this weekend, when
finally a drier airmass from the north may be able to replace
the stagnant and saturated weather pattern.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The drum beat of daily rain chances in the war against drought
continues. CAMs have another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the mid afternoon and evening hours again
today. Despite the moist airmass and another day of scattered
storms, I'm not sold on the need for another day of a large scale
flood watch here. Heavy rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were once
more isolated in nature, and while flash flooding is again possible,
the continued isolated nature of the bouts of heavy rain makes a
massive watch seem too broad an instrument. There's also no
guarantee that those who saw rain yesterday see rain again today or
tomorrow. Mean wind vectors in the atmosphere should allow for
storms to keep steady motions, and not sit and dump on any one town
for too long. There's some weak low level shear present today, with
the HRRR painting light helicity tracks across the region. Better
shear is present in Kentucky, and while we may see transient
rotation in more mature cells later, not expecting a severe threat
today.

After today, we have a few more days of high moisture just pooling
over the Mid South region, with generally light forcing dynamics
continuing. The front looks to move slightly further north into
Kentucky but generally remain stationary. By Friday the front moves
to our south, though some models (such as the Euro) keep things
stationary and close enough on our southern side through the weekend
to warrant low PoPs. Should the front make it a little further
south, as the GFS depicts, then the weekend may be drier for all.

From the weekend onwards into early June the longer range ensembles
bring about a drying out period, with the EPS mean PWAT dropping to
1" or less next week. This should give everyone an opportunity to
deal with outdoor chores, and a time for locations to dry out once
more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently VFR conditions are present across the region. MVFR
conditions are possible in the early morning hours. Patchy fog is
possible but will likely not be dense. Shower activity will
increase in the morning hours, becoming widespread in the
afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in thunderstorm
development is higher today for the afternoon/early evening hours.
Showers and storms are expected to taper off after sunset this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 66 82 66 / 80 80 90 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 65 81 65 / 70 80 90 70
Oak Ridge, TN 79 64 81 63 / 80 80 100 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 62 80 61 / 80 60 90 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 3 AM EDT early this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ early this morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Cocke Smoky
Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Jefferson-
Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

635
FXUS64 KMRX 261756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon
into the evening with isolated coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but the
trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and smaller
windows of storms as we head into the back half of the week.

- Temperatures remain moderate all week, but will feel muggy with
dew points in the 60's to 70's through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Another afternoon of expected showers and eventually some
thunderstorms can be expected today as the overall synoptic pattern
remains largely unchanged with high pressure over the Atlantic and a meandering trough/low across the southern plains. As of this writing
the afternoon storms have been sluggish to fire off, likely due to
the increased cloud coverage. Still expect storms to develop and
increase in coverage, but many more people should stay fairly dry
today compared to the last few afternoon/evenings.

Tomorrow expect a similar story with a mostly dry morning and
increasing storm activity in the afternoon/evening. Due to the more
isolated coverage of the storms the flooding risk should be lower
than it was over the weekend. Still could see a slow moving storm
develop over a urban area causing quick flooding, but most locations
should be able to handle the isolated storms over the next several
days.

Pattern stays fairly moist and moderately active with regards to
storms through much of the week. Coverage might decrease even
further Friday into Saturday as the stalled frontal boundary looks
to get a shove to the south as we head into the weekend and we could
be sitting on the drier northern side of the boundary. However if
the front doesn't move far enough south then we could see an uptick
in rain coverage over the weekend. Omega block pattern looks to try
and break down over the weekend, but deterministic models are doing
a poor job trying to handle what happens on the eastern side of the
block. We could see a trough/low dive down through the southeast,
but that's pretty atypical synoptically this time of year so am not
quite ready to bite off on that solution yet.

Higher confidence in the temperature aspect of the forecast as highs
are expected to be within 5 degrees of seasonal normals most days
for the rest of the week. Dew point values will remain elevated,
likely in the 60's to low 70's meaning that even with the moderate temperatures it will feel muggy outside, especially in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Another day of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected across the eastern Tennessee Valley. Coverage will be
isolated to scattered with 30-60 minutes of storms over an airport
possible this afternoon into the overnight hours. All storm
activity will begin to decrease in coverage after the sun sets
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 82 66 84 / 50 60 50 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 65 82 / 50 80 70 70
Oak Ridge, TN 65 81 64 82 / 50 80 60 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 80 62 81 / 50 70 90 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

855
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon
into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but
the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and
smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Rain chances to continue again today, but expecting even more
isolated rain chances thanks to weak upper and surface level
forcing. CAMs are depicting widely scattered to isolated coverage,
with the southern valley and southern portion of the mountains most
likely to see scattered convection. HRRR also depicts 20 to 30 knots
of effective shear, but overall profiles suggest severe threat is
once again very limited. A similar story will play out on Thursday,
with perhaps even more limited convective coverage. Short of any
storm falling exactly on top of our more saturated locations, flood
threat is pretty limited but not zero, depending primarily on if a
storm can quickly dump a lot of rainfall on already saturated
ground.

Friday the GFS and Euro are coming into alignment with potentially
more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the
southern half of the area. A stretched out piece of vorticity,
coupled with the entrance to a jet streak and the nearby stationary
front, may be enough to spawn a greater coverage of storms on
Friday. Beyond Friday, we'll generally be in a warm gentle ridge,
with remarkably flat temperature trends, and no clear sharp airmass
change for just a little while longer. As we head out as far as
midweek next week, a large upper trough will envelop portions of the
Eastern US. Uncertainty regarding the trough coupled with a
generally remnant moist airmass means low PoPs to cover for an
isolated storm will remain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

CIGs are mostly VFR but some low clouds are starting to develop.
MVFR CIGs will be possible by morning especially near CHA. Some
patchy fog is possible especially near TRI but dense fog is not
expected. VFR conditions will return by mid morning. Showers and
storms will be isolated to scattered mainly in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 84 66 / 50 30 50 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 82 63 / 70 70 70 10
Oak Ridge, TN 81 64 82 62 / 80 60 70 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 62 81 57 / 60 80 80 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

420
FXUS64 KMRX 271740
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
140 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon
into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but
the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and
smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Currently storms already present across much of the southern
Appalachians under clearer skies early this afternoon. This will
help fuel the continued diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms
we've experienced for numerous days now. Expect these storms to
continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening and dissipate
before midnight. We could see a few strong storms later this
afternoon across northeast TN and southwest VA closer to better
synoptic forcing and a surface boundary, but the best atmospheric
dynamics looks to stay off to our northeast. Can't rule out some
rogue storms lingering past midnight across southwest VA as well.
Forecast soundings indicate a fairly unimpressive atmosphere, but a
quick burst of wind is possible in the strongest storms this
afternoon. The orientation of these storms means they'll be generally
moving southwest to northeast and that could cause some very
localized training of storms... So we could see some additional
isolated flooding, especially in areas that received multiple rounds
of heavy rain over the past several days.

Continuing tomorrow we'll actually have a decent chance to see
suppressed thunderstorm activity as the front to our north sags
further south. Depending on how far south this boundary makes it
we'll likely keep storm activity to the south of it. Locations north
of I-40 have the best chance at staying rain free based on current
CAM runs. Saturday might see a surge back north of the storm
activity, but confidence is low at this point due to minor changes
in the atmosphere and lingering outflow boundaries likely to
influence the final location of the boundary.

Sunday into next week could bring some drying out to the region as
we sit on the southwest side of a deep trough/low meandering through
the northern portion of the United States. This slow moving system
means we'll be under generally drier northwesterly flow through much
of the atmosphere. Surface high off the Atlantic coast could still
draw up some low level moisture, but this pattern would typically
indicate less chances for rain over the end of the weekend and into
next week. In addition temperatures ever so slightly cool by a
couple of degrees for the first half of next week under this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers across the region will continue for the rest of
the evening, eventually dissipating after sunset. Multiple rounds
can be expected at each TAF site briefly bringing conditions down
to IFR or lower. Depending on how much rain occurs at an airport
we could see fog develop overnight, but low confidence at this
time until we see where rain occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 84 66 80 / 30 50 30 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 63 81 / 50 70 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 64 82 62 80 / 40 40 10 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 81 57 82 / 70 70 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

262
FXUS64 KMRX 280542
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Lower chance of showers today, mainly across southern sections.

- Rain chances persist through the weekend, but a dry weather
pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers are currently tracking southeast across the area, associated
with a pre-frontal trough that will slowly push through the area
overnight. Convergence along the trough in the moist air mass will
keep at least some isolated showers through most of the night. This
boundary will be near our southern border by sunrise, while the
trailing cold front will be entering our northern sections. Surface
dewpoints will remain in the 70s south of the front, so some
scattered to isolated showers can be expected tomorrow, mainly near
the front. A northerly flow through the low levels and some drier
air aloft will limit coverage and intensity of convection. NBM PoPs
will be cut back.

Friday looks to have pretty limited rain chances, with the best
chances in southern sections as the axis of deep moisture will be
across GA/N AL/West TN, with midlevel ridging over our area.
Forecast soundings look rather stable as well, with only weak CAPE
present in the southern half. The axis of moisture returns northward
on Saturday as PW values return to the 1.6-1.8 inch range, and a
midlevel trough moves over the area.

Sunday into next week could bring some drying out to the region as
we sit on the southwest side of a deep trough/low meandering through
the northern portion of the United States. This slow moving system
means we'll be under generally drier northwesterly flow through much
of the atmosphere. Surface high off the Atlantic coast could still
draw up some low level moisture, but this pattern would typically
indicate less chances for rain over the end of the weekend and into
next week. In addition temperatures ever so slightly cool by a
couple of degrees for the first half of next week under this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Conditions are currently VFR across the region with mostly thin,
high clouds present. Conditions are better for fog development
than the last several days. Patchy fog is likely in the early
morning hours and dense fog cannot be completely ruled out. VFR
conditions will return by mid morning. The best chance of a shower
or storm will be near CHA, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 66 81 65 / 50 10 60 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 63 82 64 / 60 0 50 60
Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 82 63 / 60 0 40 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 56 82 59 / 60 0 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

603
FXUS64 KMRX 281907
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 302 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Isolated showers and storms mainly along and south of I-40 this
afternoon.

- Rain chances persist through the weekend, but a dry weather
pattern develops next week among continued seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

As we head through the afternoon and evening a surface cold front
will continue to sink through the CWA while influence of surface
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region nudges into the
area. Some isolated to weakly scattered convection is expected along
and south of the front this afternoon, with the best coverage
south of I-40 and near the southern Cumberland Plateau. Most will
remain dry. With light northeasterly winds post FROPA, there are
no notable concerns for widespread fog overnight despite recent
rains.

Mostly dry conditions are expected for Friday morning or perhaps the
early afternoon. By Friday evening, an impulse will traverse mean
flow aloft and direct the aforementioned front back northward.
Increasing chances for additional showers and storms make a return
Friday evening/night and into Saturday as this front meanders the
area. PWAT will return to 90th percentile values and latest HRRR
soundings depict tall and skinny CAPE profiles with freezing levels
near 14kft, suggesting the potential for isolated flooding concerns
where any heavy downpours train over one location. Most likely
locations for this would be along and south of I-40.

The Sunday and Monday forecast features continued chances for
precip(30-50%), albeit, a bit more uncertain. Long range guidance is
more bullish as a trough axis moves through the region, where as the
latest NAM, which just reaches into this time period, is starting to
suggest a drier solution with shortwave ridging being more
influential. Believe there is some potential the PoP chances trend
downward during this time frame. Going into the mid-week, models are
in pretty good agreement of a typical omega-block pattern becoming
more prominent. The increased subsidence aloft will influence drier
conditions among seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Predominant VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle. A cold
front is currently moving through the forecast area, and there
will be a brief period this afternoon where a quick shower could
impact TYS and perhaps isolated lightning/thunder near CHA. Winds
will be light and out of the northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 83 66 81 / 10 40 90 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 86 66 79 / 0 30 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 62 85 65 79 / 0 20 80 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 60 80 / 0 0 20 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

208
FXUS64 KMRX 291059 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returns today, with periods of showers/storms tonight
and Saturday, some of which may produce heavy rainfall and
flooding.

- A dry weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A surface front sits south of our area, with a mid/upper level ridge
extending SE to NW across the region. Through the night, 850 mb
winds will shift from NE to S in response to an approaching low
pressure system over AR/MS. Low level moisture will be increasing
through the day, but the mid/upper ridge will keep rain chances
mainly in our southern sections. Forecast soundings show quite a
pronounced gradient of PW across the area this afternoon, from 1.9
at CHA to 1.1 at TRI. By tonight, the mid/upper ridge will have
retreated and convection should blossom as a shortwave trough moves
into the TN Valley. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient
warm cloud processes, and a surface front in the area will help
focus and sustain convective development. The main concern with this
precip will be locally heavy rainfall and training cells that could
dump 1-2 inches in an hour. The main period for this threat is
expected to be from midnight to noon Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon/evening, a closed low over New England and the Mid-
Atlantic region will rotate southward and push drier air into our
area, lowering rain chances through Sunday. The NBM's likely PoPs on
Sunday will be cut back to a chance/slight chance.

An East Coast trough and a building ridge over the MS River to Great
Lakes region will result in mainly dry conditions in East TN for
most of next week, with temperatures staying fairly close to normal.
Rain chances may return late in the week as the ridge aloft breaks
down and Gulf moisture advances northward into the lower MS region
and western TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A band of SHRA/TSRA should break out INVOF KCHA between roughly
19z-22z this afternoon, slowly moving north through late tonight.
Confidence in them affecting a terminal is highest at KCHA so have
gone with a TEMPO group there. Maintained PROB30 groups elsewhere
where confidence in coverage is a little less. The other forecast
item of note is that low-end MVFR CIGS should move north up the
TN valley after midnight tonight. TAFs will be out shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 82 65 / 40 80 80 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 79 63 / 20 70 60 10
Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 79 61 / 20 70 70 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 62 81 57 / 0 30 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

810
FXUS64 KMRX 291828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returning today with showers and a few storms tonight
into Saturday, some of which may produce very heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A nearly stationary surface front sits south of our area, with a
mid/upper level ridge extending SE to NW across the region and a
shortwave trough just to our southwest. This shortwave will lift NE
and the frontal boundary will nudge back north into our area
tonight.

Deep moisture is spreading back north into our area, and PW Values
will be around the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range for much of the area
overnight into Saturday. Cape values do not look high but the tall
skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient warm cloud processes and the possibility of high rainfall rates, and the surface boundary lifting
back into our area will act to focus and sustain convective
development as well. Localized flooding will be a concern tonight
into at least Saturday morning, especially where any training
cells develop. While flooding issues are likely to be isolated,
there is enough potential for significant flash flooding to
warrant a flash flood watch for tonight into Sunday. The highest
threat looks to be in a swath across and near the northern Plateau
across the central Valley into the central TN mountains, but
there is enough of a threat further south to include those areas
as well.

By later Saturday into Saturday night an upper low over the NE CONUS
will rotate southward and push the frontal boundary back south.
Surface high pressure building in from the north will bring drier
air into the area. Sunday looks drier, although there still may be
some convection especially south closer to the front. Sunday night
into Monday the upper trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as
additional energy dives south out of Canada. A cold front will
move south across our area Monday, along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday along with temperatures near seasonal normals. Rain chances may tick back up
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Will see showers and a few thunderstorms spreading from south to
north, but it is still questionable how much makes it to TRI
before the precipitation shifts back south. Will try to time
highest probability periods with prob30 and/or tempo groups. No
mention of thunder at TRI as probability there is lower. Also
expect cigs to drop to MVFR (and possibly lower) at CHA and TYS
for period later tonight into early Saturday. Improvement back to
VFR is likely by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 82 64 79 / 80 70 20 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 80 61 81 / 90 80 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 65 80 60 80 / 90 80 0 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 82 56 81 / 60 40 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening through
Saturday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky
Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North
Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

013
FXUS64 KMRX 301046 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Periods of showers/storms continue through Saturday morning,
some of which may produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper low spinning over Middle/West
TN, with a negatively-tilted trough extending SE across AL/GA.
This is producing upper divergence over East TN, which will
maintain convective activity through the night in a moist air mass
of PW values near 2 inches. The HRRR shows showers and storms
increasing in coverage and intensity later tonight, around 09Z in
the northern and central TN Valley, between TYS and TRI. Rain
rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible where storms move
slowly or train over the same locations. Flash flooding will
continue to be a concern, especially for areas that had heavy rain
this afternoon, such as Blount/Sevier counties and
Morgan/Scott/Campbell counties. The Flood Watch will continue.

Through Saturday morning, precip will shift southward as the large
closed low over New England moves south and establishes a NW flow
across the region. This will bring drier air into the area that will
keep dry conditions into Sunday. Chance PoPs return late Sunday with
a weak shortwave trough in the NW flow. Another disturbance in the
NW flow and a southward-moving cold front brings better rain chances
on Monday.

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday, along with temperatures near seasonal normals. Rain chances may tick back up
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Widespread SHRA/TSRA continue across East Tennessee this morning
along a stationary front that will shift south through the morning
and early afternoon hours. KTRI may already be on the northern
edge of the activity expected the rest of the day so have them out
of the rain by 15z. It will be a few hours later before rain
shifts south of KTYS, and between 20z and 00z before SHRA move
back to KCHA and points south. Categories will be a mixed back
in/around rainfall, then VFR after SHRA wrap up. Not expecting fog
or low clouds tonight due to dry northerly surface flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 66 80 64 / 70 10 40 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 82 63 / 80 10 50 60
Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 81 63 / 70 0 50 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 60 / 40 0 10 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-
McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

414
FXUS64 KMRX 301823
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
223 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish this
afternoon.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at
times Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a
few storms may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday into
Monday evening.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The flooding threat continues to decrease this afternoon as drier
air works north to south across the area and the weak frontal
boundary still over northern portions of our area slowly sags
further south. The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire on
schedule. Isolated convection may linger south into early
tonight, but for the most part tonight will be dry across the
area.

A weak impulse in the flow will bring an increase in showers and a
few storms again later Sunday into Sunday night especially near the
nearly stationary front, with the highest chances currently looking
to be across the south and central areas Sunday afternoon and then
across central areas Sunday night although these details are still
in flux. Models disagree on the details, but they generally show
the deeper moisture spreading back north with model PWAT values
reaching the 1.5 to 1.8 inches across much of the area and what
limited CAPE is available looks to be again distributed in a tall
skinny profile. Given the weak boundary still over the area to act
as a potential focus for convection and given that some areas are
already rather wet, there is a threat of very heavy rain rates and
localized flooding. This will bear watching, and will be added to
the HWO for now.

For Monday and Monday night heights will be falling as an upper
trough digs south, and a stronger cold front will drop into and then
through our area. Model CAPE values approaching or exceeding 1500
J/kg and an increase in bulk shear suggest the possibility of a few
storms becoming strong to marginally severe especially across
southern and central portions of our area on Monday or Monday
evening with damaging winds the primary threat. This threat will be
mentioned in the HWO as well.

A few showers or storms may linger especially north and east Tuesday
as additional short wave energy moves through the upper trough, then
drier and cooler air will move in and the dry conditions will then
persist at least through Friday along with a slow warming trend. By
late in the period, shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as
we move into the weekend, although model trends have been to delay
the moisture return and confidence is not high for the details that
far out.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

A few showers or thunderstorms around mainly CHA early, and will
include a tempo thunder group at CHA . Outside of any
showers/storms, conditions should generally be VFR. However, late
in the period some low VFR or MVFR cigs will move back in at CHA,
and a few showers will be around as well. Winds will generally be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 80 64 84 / 20 40 40 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 63 81 / 10 30 50 70
Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 63 82 / 10 40 50 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 60 80 / 0 0 50 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

198
FXUS64 KMRX 311056 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at times Sunday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a few storms
may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday afternoon.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A front is currently pushing south through the area, marked by a
dewpoint gradient from around 70 south to around 50 north. It will
be south of our area by sunrise, and a drier low level air mass will
be in place for most of today. A ridge building along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians will keep the eastern portions of front
across GA, but the western portions will lift northward from AL into
Middle TN and near our Plateau counties with a NW-SE orientation. As
a midlevel shortwave trough approaches, convection will likely
initiate near the front this afternoon. In the NW flow, this
activity will track across mainly our southern sections through the
evening. Surface CAPE isn't very impressive, only 500-800 J/kg, so a
severe threat is unlikely.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday afternoon in
the form of an upstream MCS. This round of convection appears to
have a potential to reach severe levels, with MLCAPE on the order of
2000 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg.
Low level winds from the NW and fairly weak do not favor adequate
SRH for a tornado threat. Wind/hail appear to be the main threats
with storms. The caveat is that there is poor agreement on how the
CAMS are depicting this activity, with the HRRR being the most
aggressive to bring it in our area, while the HiRes-ARW keeps it
farther west in Middle TN into northern AL. The FV3 has a later
arrival time than the HRRR. The wording in the HWO will be beefed up
for this potential threat.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday afternoon. Beyond that, A large blocking ridge will be over the
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

The latest high resolution guidance has a later arrival time of
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA in East Tennessee than previously forecast.
Expect convection to initiate near the Cumberland plateau between
20z-22z, then shift east into the TN valley. Still expect
coverage to be scattered enough to preclude going with more than a
PROB30 at KTYS and KCHA, with lower confidence at KTRI. Regarding
flight categories, MVFR is expected this afternoon with
approaching SHRA/TSRA. Low confidence in whether MVFR CIGS linger
overnight, so will stick with a return to VFR levels after showers
dissipate late this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 64 85 65 / 40 30 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 82 61 / 40 40 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 82 63 82 60 / 30 40 60 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 81 56 / 0 10 50 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

487
FXUS64 KMRX 311841
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected through this
evening. A low-end risk for isolated flooding remains due to recent
heavy rainfall.

- Additional storms expected on Monday, a few of which could be
strong to severe. If all things line up, the environment is
supportive of winds up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail.

- A drier weather pattern develops beyond Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A weak midlevel shortwave will allow for isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the area through this evening. Sounding
profiles show long and skinny CAPE this afternoon, efficient heavy
rain environment, but PW values aren't as high as yesterday.
However, PWs are still enough to support some moderate to locally
heavy rainfall. Combine this with the recent flooding and heavy
rains, and a low-end risk for isolated flooding will be in place
through this evening.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday
afternoon/evening in the form of an upstream MCS. As the previous
forecast mentioned, this round of convection appears to have the
potential to reach severe levels. MLCAPE values still show around
2000 J/kg, effective shear around 35 kts, and DCAPE over 1000
J/kg.

Low level winds profiles do not look supportive of a tornado threat.
Straight line wind damage up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail appear
to be the main threats with these storms. However, as the previous
forecast mentioned, CAMS are still in disagreement on where this MCS
tracks. Some are still showing it impacting portions of our area
(mainly south of I-40), while others are showing it missing us
entirely, due to the MCS being further to our west. We should
have a much better idea on timing and potential downstream
location impacts once this system has actually formed tomorrow
morning across Missouri and how it evolves thorugh the day. Stay
tuned!


On Tuesday, we still may see some scattered showers/storms across
the area due to moisture on the backside of a deep trough. Beyond
that, A large blocking ridge will be over the region, keeping dry
conditions with a warming trend for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A few showers and storms may impact CHA and TYS this afternoon and
evening but not confident enough to include TEMPO so going with
PROB30. Otherwise, mostly VFR overnight but MVFR is certainly
possible across portions of the area. It really depends on how
much convection we get this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 64 81 / 40 50 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 60 80 / 60 60 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 59 80 / 60 60 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 56 78 / 60 40 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

246
FXUS64 KMRX 010600
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Storms may bring strong gusty winds and large hail this
afternoon in southern sections, but the threat is conditional
on upstream storms moving into our area.

- After a chance of showers Tuesday, a dry weather pattern will
set up across the region during the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The main focus of this forecast period will be the threat of storms
this afternoon, associated with an upstream MCS that is expected to
develop in the Mid MS Valley later tonight. The track of the MCS is
in question, which will determine its impacts in our area in the
afternoon. CAMS are still not in great agreement on whether it will
enter our CWA or not - the FV3 and NAM-Nest keep it to our SW, while
the HRRR develops storms along its NE outflow that track across
the central and southern TN Valley. It is notable that the most
recent HRRR runs are keeping the strongest convection in West and
Middle TN/MS/AL. Confidence is low that we will get storms, but
the atmosphere will support severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail if they do happen. At CHA, MLCAPE values in NAM
soundings are around 1800 J/kg, effective shear values are around
40 kt, DCAPE values are around 1100 J/kg, and WBZ heights are
around 10 kft. Timing of this potential threat appears to be
between 18-22Z. Low level wind profiles will not support a tornado
threat. Hopefully the CAMS will come into better agreement on the
track of this MCS with later runs when it has formed.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon as a shortwave trough extending from the close low rotates
across the Appalachians. The cold temps aloft under this trough will
generate scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm.
Some small hail cannot be ruled out either, given the cold temps
aloft creating midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km and WBZ heights
around 8 kft.

For Wednesday and beyond, a large blocking ridge will be over the
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A thunderstorm complex is expected to push southeast through
TN and into northern AL/GA this afternoon and evening. There is
uncertainty in the exact track but confidence is high enough to
include a PROB30 for TSRA at both KCHA and KTYS. Chances are
higher at KCHA but will wait for better agreement in guidance
before including any TEMPO or prevailing TSRA at either site.
Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will prevail through mid morning before
lifting to VFR. Guidance also indicates that VFR will prevail
after the passing of any convection later today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 81 59 / 70 40 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 80 56 / 30 20 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 80 55 / 30 20 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 77 51 / 10 10 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)