A Tornado has already been in the ground in the Michigan portion of this area.

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 062011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062010
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-062215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 062010Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms are possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has been gradually
intensifying along a warm front in far southwestern Lower MI this
afternoon, with additional deepening cumulus extending
west-southwestward across northern IN into northeastern IL. Here,
lower 60s dewpoints and diurnal heating has yielded a corridor of
weak surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of widespread
clouds. Despite the weak buoyancy, strong deep-layer wind field
(sampled by regional VWP) is yielding an elongated hodograph with
enhanced low-level curvature. This environment may promote some
storm organization this afternoon, including small clusters and
brief/transient supercell structures. Locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado risk will accompany the stronger storms that
evolve. The overall severe risk may remain too isolated for a watch,
though trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42008798 41978736 42018679 42298611 42508548 42508505
42368463 41968443 41648459 41328490 41088542 40918596
40738680 40658733 40658787 40678834 40898879 41138907
41638905 41948858 42008798

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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