ACUS03 KWNS 040846
SWODY3
SPC AC 040845

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line segment.

...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS03 KWNS 130727
SWODY3
SPC AC 130726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.

...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday morning.

Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.

Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.

The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)