ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

...Discussion...
There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output
concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within
the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In
general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale
mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific
coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained
downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,
and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians
vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical
ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an
influence across parts of the Southeast.

A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations,
within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest,
may be in the process of progressing into and across the central
Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at
the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably
accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to
continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as
the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across
the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region
later Thursday through Thursday night.

Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing
toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive
deepening Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the
south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually
overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level
moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio
Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the
various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to
severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early
afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level
cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.

The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution
Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may
initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east
of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to
develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east
central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of
central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.

Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally
characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on
the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath
40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may
promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few
tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to
support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before
convection wanes late Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040658
SWODY2
SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.

...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central Iowa...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060655
SWODY2
SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.

...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 080615
SWODY2
SPC AC 080613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km.

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)