ACUS01 KWNS 151245
SWODY1
SPC AC 151243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much
of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.
Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the
northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing
moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold
front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across
central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.

The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a
notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which
has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant
buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually
increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to
mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear
due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the
greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning
late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity
moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.
The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few
mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 041302
SWODY1
SPC AC 041300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor
satellite imagery this morning over the central High Plains will
move eastward towards the Mid MS Valley by tonight. As this occurs,
a narrow swath of around 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will
overspread parts of the southern Plains to lower OH Valley.
Large-scale ascent should remain modest with this system, resulting
in only a weak surface low developing northeastward along a
quasi-stationary surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of
the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing
into generally the low to mid 60s. This increasing moisture beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should
support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow
corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability
should develop across north-central into central TX where stronger
daytime heating is expected.

Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest in closer proximity to
the mid-level jet and surface front from eastern OK into AR,
southern MO, and the lower OH Valley. Effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection across these areas.
However, convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad
ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the
surface front. Additionally, ongoing elevated convection this
morning across the northern OK/southeast KS vicinity and related
cloudiness may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream. Farther south into north/central TX, weaker deep-layer
shear may limit updraft organization to some extent.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists today and tonight. An
isolated hail threat should persist with ongoing elevated convection
this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and
southern IL. By this afternoon, surface-based thunderstorm
development should occur closer to the surface front. A mix of
supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging
winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates
can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not
forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km
SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any
sustained supercells/clusters near the surface boundary.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 041628
SWODY1
SPC AC 041626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks
and Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a
tornado or two are possible.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
Well in advance of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin, a
low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough over the
south-central High Plains will continue east-northeastward over the
Lower Missouri Valley through tonight. A base-embedded modestly
increasing belt of southwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt) will
maximize from northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas across the Ozarks,
in general proximity to a weak surface low/frontal zone across the
region where deep-layer/low-level shear are expected to be maximized.

South of the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints
climbing into generally the low to mid 60s F. While cloud cover may
remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector, this increasing
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime
heating should support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater
instability should develop across north-central into central Texas
where stronger daytime heating is expected, although
deep-layer/low-level shear will be notably weaker, while still
sufficient for relatively isolated severe storms.

Across most of the Slight Risk area, effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection regionally, although
convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent
within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the surface
front. Additionally, ongoing mostly elevated convection this morning
across northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and southern
Illinois may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream, with outflow/existing convection contributing to modal
complexity later today.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists through tonight. An
isolated and/or occasional hail threat may persist with ongoing
elevated convection from southern Missouri into southern
Indiana/northern Kentucky. Surface-based thunderstorm development
should otherwise become more probable across the Ozarks into
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface front/surface low and
modifying outflow. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk
for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible where steepened
low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating. Although
low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, there should
be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of
tornadoes with any sustained supercells/clusters, particularly
across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 070603
SWODY1
SPC AC 070602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into
the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast
from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend
southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into
southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north
across VA and into western NY and PA during the day.

Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from
TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS
Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the
Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far
north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley
into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the
greatest relative severe potential there.

...OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV...
Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with
increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest
surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support
afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward
into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be
accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few
supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in
combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor
wind damage.

...TX into the Lower MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of
the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated
instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead
of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production
with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection
forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided
by modest southwest winds in the lower few km.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 091236
SWODY1
SPC AC 091234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South
through the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly
flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California
Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the
southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading
eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave.

Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in
place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid
60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through
east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to
advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely
in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the
increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the
embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy
will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and
Mid-South through much the Southeast.

...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast...
A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK
into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern
TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western
portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to
mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm
cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the
Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this
early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional
information for this early morning activity.

Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm
cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale
into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern
AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant,
with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the
resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the
afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable
of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity
is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining
favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited
by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level
flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a low-probability tornado threat.

...Southern AZ...
A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end
of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ
within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north
across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy,
suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels.
Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest,
most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121233
SWODY1
SPC AC 121232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Strong wind
gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...

Early-morning satellite imagery shows phased shortwave troughs
within the broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the
southern shortwave progressing through the Southeast and the
northern shortwave moving into the Middle OH Valley. A convective
line, aided by ascent attendant to the southern shortwave, continues
to progress eastward/northeastward across GA and the FL Panhandle. A
warm, moist, and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line,
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s across the Carolinas to the low 70s across northern
FL. Expectation is for this line to persist as it continues eastward/northeastward, with perhaps some slowing of the southern
portion of the line as it becomes displaced south of the better
forcing for ascent. Central portion of this line nearest the
strongest forcing will likely have the deepest updrafts for the next
several hours before progressing northeastward of the better
moisture and buoyancy as it moves across NC. Robust low to mid-level
flow will remain in place, supporting the potential for damaging
gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains...

Intense mid-level flow (i.e. 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread
southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon, in tandem
with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the
region. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south
of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection
is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning.
This convection could augment the already strong
westerly/northwesterly flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Significant wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)