ACUS01 KWNS 101258
SWODY1
SPC AC 101256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
12 UTC surface observations depict a southward advancing cold front
draped from the upper Great Lakes region into the southern Plains.
Aloft, an upper wave is forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes
region in response to the southward push of an arctic air mass
behind the front, while a low-amplitude upper disturbance over
northern Mexico migrates eastward along the Gulf coast. Along the
West Coast, cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough will overspread central CA through tonight.

...Big Bend region of TX and portions of the OH Valley...
The combination of increasing ascent along the front and ahead of
the upper waves should promote increasing showers from the OH Valley southwestward into the Big Bend region of TX. While buoyancy
profiles will remain fairly modest along and ahead of the frontal
zone due to warm mid-level temperatures (as noted in 12 UTC RAOBs), temperatures aloft should be sufficiently cold for isolated
thunderstorms. A few recent CAM solutions hint at the potential for
loosely organized convection across portions of eastern KY into WV
where deep-layer shear will be fairly strong (around 40 knots) in
proximity to an intensifying upper jet. However, meager buoyancy
will likely modulate updraft intensities.

...California...
Persistent lightning has been noted in GOES GLM data off the CA
coast under the approaching upper-level trough. The 12 UTC OAK RAOB
also sampled cool mid-level temperatures near -20 C just below 500
mb. With further cooling/moistening aloft expected with the eastward translation of the upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear
likely after 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 02/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 111246
SWODY1
SPC AC 111244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...
A stationary mid-level low near San Francisco Bay will maintain
cyclonic flow from the eastern Pacific through CA and into the Great
Basin. The associated mid-level cold pocket (-24 to -26 deg C) will
combine with limited diurnal heating to contribute to pockets of
weak, intermittent destabilization. Low-topped convection may yield
some lightning flashes with the stronger updrafts. However, overall
weak and fleeting buoyancy will limit storm vigor and preclude a
severe risk.

Elsewhere, a cold front will continue pushing southeast across the
Southeast states and reach the Carolina coast later today.
West-to-east moving showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon before ceasing by this evening.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 131246
SWODY1
SPC AC 131245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the
west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by
early Saturday morning. Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb
flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the
Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward
into western/central OK. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12
UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the
development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually
moistens/heats today. Forecast soundings shows strong to very
strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm organization.

Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest
periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this
afternoon. As the upper trough approaches the region this evening
into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor
of convection is expected. One or more clusters will likely evolve
into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an
eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold
pools. One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the
Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper
large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.
A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind
potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more
linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight
will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms
capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS
during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 141258
SWODY1
SPC AC 141256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening
upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern
Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio
Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold
advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to
the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through
tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s)
continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a
warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley.
Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will
promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it
shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A
frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will
promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this
afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight.

...Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi...
Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast
through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within
the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior
overnight convection. With time, this activity will become
increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000
J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered
daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height
falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete
cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The
potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should
increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far
east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper
wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid
eastward surge of the front.

...Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas...
Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest
OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface
front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with
daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to
-6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind
the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective
showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this afternoon.

..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over
the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA
through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense
cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose
east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this
afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.

In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will
migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and
subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.
An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow
convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front.
Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead
of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts.
Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few
stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the
broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before
this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it
dissipates by early evening.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the
immediate coast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper
Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

...Western States/Coastal California...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle
south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a
strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California
late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold
temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While
gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm
potential is currently expected to remain low.

...Upper Midwest...
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late
afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop
generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward
Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring
mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an
eastward-accelerating cold front.

Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while
capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few
thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern
Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind
gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong
deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise
become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond
across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough
to support severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 211301
SWODY1
SPC AC 211300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central
Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia
during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the
immediate cool side of a front that is draped
west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may
further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm
mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level
lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the
storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating
cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation
toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This
scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into
late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama
into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a
broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the front.

Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless,
long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL,
will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support
organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and
possibly a couple of splitting supercells.

Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary
hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively
limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk,
areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia
will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/21/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 251949
SWODY1
SPC AC 251948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made - namely a slight northward expansion of 5% wind
probabilities to better align with developing convection across
west/southwest NE. Although this convection is fairly weak, severe
wind gusts have been observed across far western NE within the past
hour associated with convectively-augmented downward mixing of
strong flow aloft. The potential for additional severe gusts should
continue through the next several hours downstream. See the previous
discussion below and MCD #118.

..Moore.. 02/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/

...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 261256
SWODY1
SPC AC 261255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the
ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon
through early/mid-evening.

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft is expected as trough amplification
occurs with a shortwave trough spreading southeastward across the
south-central Plains, toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex this evening, and
the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. A plume of relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates will similarly advect southeastward atop
a modestly moist air mass to the south of a southward-spreading
front regionally. While southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL
will be modest-strength and tend to weaken over time, strong
mid/high-level winds will yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting
the potential for severe storms including some supercells as storms
develop and intensify through mid/late afternoon. Severe hail is
expected to be the primary hazard.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/26/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 271232
SWODY1
SPC AC 271230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Southeast...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance
southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall
across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While
diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the
front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development
of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level
convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this
afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates
aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 281253
SWODY1
SPC AC 281252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central
FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue
to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually
offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL
Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.
This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500
mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid
afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and
mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level
winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.
Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur
with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses
offshore by this evening.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 011232
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.

...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.

...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for isolated/sustained convection is apparent.

...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being
aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain
sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A
belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained
today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as
low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks
and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the
southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the
surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be
suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the
afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout
low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline
intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become
minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a
low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track
northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated
hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing
large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of
elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 072039
SWODY1
SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081238
SWODY1
SPC AC 081236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave
trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO
Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern
Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to
remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly
northeastward and moving off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening.

At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from
northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist
along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and
another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front
are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem
with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of
this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast,
as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front
will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but
thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early
evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm
coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and
weak low to mid-level flow.

...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast
VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina
coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this
morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints
spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will
likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the
central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon.
Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level
lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate
shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in
a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level
lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more
organized and persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 111242
SWODY1
SPC AC 111241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from
the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning,
with an upper low moving through TX in the southern stream and a
shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains
within the northern stream. Both of these systems are forecast to
progress quickly eastward amid modest phasing and trend towards a
more confluent, single-stream pattern by early tomorrow morning.

Currently a broad region of moderate to strong low/mid-level flow
extends from TX northeastward into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec.
The strongest low-level flow with this broad region is over the
Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, where 850 mb flow is around 50 to 60 kt. Thunderstorms are currently clustered over two areas within this
broader region, IL and OH, and farther south from east TX into the
Arklatex. The greatest severe thunderstorm potential is expected to
concentrate downstream of the areas today, with damaging gusts as
the primary severe hazards.

...Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic...
Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from
west-central IN southwestward into southern IL. This line is
progressing quickly east-northeastward and has produced several
strong gusts (i.e. 40-45 kt) thus far. Regional radar imagery also
depicts a MCV moving into southern IL. Mesoscale ascent attendant to
this MCV could be aiding in the development of the convective line
as well as the more cellular storms to its south. General
expectation is for this convective line to continue quickly
northeastward across the Ohio Valley, with the robust low-level flow
support in the potential strong to severe gusts as well as a few
line-embedded tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the
Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.

This ongoing line is well ahead of a shortwave trough moving through
the northern/central Plains, and strong low-level moisture advection
will likely result in airmass recovery in its wake ahead of the
shortwave. As a result, a second round of thunderstorms is
anticipated as the shortwave and its associated cold front moves
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Despite
airmass recovery, the overall buoyancy will likely be tempered by
widespread clouds and muted diurnal heating. Even so, the
combination of modest buoyancy with robust shear will still support
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong gusts are
the primary risk, but line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well.
Any mature discrete development ahead of the front would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.

...East Texas through the Southeast...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a
broad area of precipitation from east TX into southern AR, supported
by modest buoyancy and strong vertical shear downstream of a
shortwave moving through west TX. As mentioned in recently issued
MCD 211, some weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted
in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear remains favorable, and
seasonably rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate
buoyancy. The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in
the short term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable
of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.

A more substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is
expected later this afternoon, in response to increased ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This additional
development will likely begin in a more cellular mode over east TX
before progressing eastward and becoming more linear with time. All
hazards are possible with this more cellular activity, including
tornadoes. Southwesterly flow aloft should strengthen ahead of the
shortwave throughout the evening and overnight, leading to increased organization and strength of the convective line. As such, the
threat for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will persist
throughout the night across the Gulf Coast states.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)