FOUS30 KWBC 090816
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The 09/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests
that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold
front advancing inland across central and southern CA later on
Tuesday night has the potential to bring several inches of rain to
portions of the Transverse Range. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF
still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s
which looks to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse
Range. This may foster some heavier orographically focused rainfall
during the latter part of the period. Deterministic guidance
suggests as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow
into the terrain coupled with the front may support isolated
heavier totals closer to 3 inches. Held off on introducing a
Marginal Risk area for now but an upgrade may still be
needed...especially given some of the runoff sensitivities with
burn scars and the sloped terrain.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

With the plume of moisture propagating eastward fairly quickly and
away from areas which received rain on Tuesday...no need to
introduce a Marginal risk area at this time.

Bann

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 100811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Transverse Range of Southern California...
The 10/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests
that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold
front advancing inland across central and southern CA later
tonight/early Wednesday morning. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF
still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes with the event. Any
concern for excessive rainfall arise during a fairly small window
when the moisture plume becomes oriented normal to the axis of the
Transverse Range. One to 2 inches of rainfall shown by the
GFS/ECMWF could be closer to 3 inches in spots where orographic
upslope contributes additional lift. The signals of that happening
for a long enough duration for problems to develop remain low...so
held off on introducing a Marginal Risk area again. Even so...an
upgrade may still be needed especially given some of the runoff
sensitivities with burn scars and the sloped terrain.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 110809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions
of the Southern Plains on Friday...

A southern stream shortwave should be making its way into portions
of the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. Precipitation is expected
to develop and spread quickly into the south-central states from
Friday into early Saturday morning. Given antecedent
conditions...rainfall from this system should generally be
beneficial. There is uncertainty with respect to how much the
southern stream shortwave phases with the northern stream as it
moves across the southern half of the country and there are still
some signals for there to be window of opportunity for training of
cells in a region with above moisture anomalies. As such...the
Marginal risk area was fairly broad to capture the range of
solutions shown by the suite of 00Z guidance.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 120831 CCA
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions
of the Southern Plains on Friday...

Moist southerly flow from the Gulf will begin to increase across
the Southern Plains during the day Friday and especially into the evening/overnight hours as a southern-stream upper-trough
approaches the region from the Southwest. This will help to
reinforce a frontal boundary left from prior shortwave(s) passage
with a roughly west or west-southwesterly axis from the western
Ozarks through Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. The late arrival
of an appreciable combination of increasing low level winds along
the boundary and height falls from the approaching upper-trough
should limit any storm development until after 00Z. The lack of
particularly notable moisture (surface dewpoints less than 60)
given that this will be day one of return flow as well as the onset
of night will lead to limited/elevated instability, with the
chance that development could also be mostly north of the quasi-
stationary boundary. Additionally, antecedent conditions are rather
dry suggesting initial rainfall would be mostly beneficial.
Nevertheless, model guidance has been consistent in depicting the
potential of locally heavy bouts of rainfall in the 2-2.5" range
which, if realized, could lead to some isolated flooding concerns
particularly for urban areas.

Putnam


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the ArkLaTex
to Mid-South Saturday...

The upper-trough will fully emerge over the Southern Plains on
Saturday and progress eastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley
by Sunday morning. Consolidating/deepening surface low pressure
will sweep eastward in tandem with an expected track based on the
latest model guidance from the Red River Valley east-northeast
through the Ozarks and into the Mid-South, with an eastward
extending warm front and trailing cold front. A strengthening low
level jet with an additional day of moist southerly return flow
from the Gulf will help to better prime the warm sector with
dewpoints into the 60s and some rather modest but relatively higher
instability in the 500 J/KG range.

Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in
vicinity of the low and eastward along the warm front, roughly in
the western Ozarks vicinity, with the potential for some lingering
isolated flooding concerns. More potent thunderstorms capable of
locally heavy rainfall are expected to develop with daytime heating
southwest along the trailing cold front through the ArkLaTex and
into eastern Texas. Increasing wind fields aloft, deep-layer flow
roughly parallel to the boundary, and eastward progression of the
cold front will likely lead to a line of numerous, potentially
organized thunderstorms with training potential, increasing the
likelihood of some locally heavy totals. Additional storms may
develop ahead of the surface low track in vicinity of the warm
front helping to prime soils and increase totals. However, the
front is expected to remain progressive, which will keep an upper
limit on rainfall totals, particularly with southern extent. A
Slight Risk has been maintained from the ArkLaTex northeast into
the Mid-South roughly following the expected low track. While
antecedent conditions are generally dry, a consensus of model
guidance supports areal average rainfall in the 1.5-2" range, with
locally heavier totals of 3-4", which could still lead to some
scattered instances of flash flooding. The latest 00Z model
guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall is more likely on
the southeastern side of the Slight Risk, but have avoided any
significant adjustments for now, especially outside of the hi-res window.

Putnam
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 130825
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions
of the Southern Plains today...

A deep upper-level trough will advance eastward across the
Southwest today. Diffluence and vorticity will spread over the
Southern Plains tonight, where showers and thunderstorms are
expected to proliferate along surface boundaries stemming from an
area of surface low pressure. Instability will be modest 500-700
J/Kg, but moisture will be quite anomalous, (PWATs 4-5 stndv & 99th
percentile) due to the arrival of subtropical Pacific moisture. A
mitigating factor will be that antecedent conditions are mostly dry
(moderate to severe drought + low RSM) especially on the western
end of the risk area.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall from the ArkLaTex
to Mid-South on Saturday..

A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system
will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the
subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce
scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys.

The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was
depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf
footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and
thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift
into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops
within the warm sector to the south.

A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this
evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and
strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.
PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from
eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight
risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly
more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current
slight risk area depict.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026

...There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Sunday...

The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
(central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were
expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased
signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro,
Canadian and GEFS ensemble members.

Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and
central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination
with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern
California on by day 4.

Kebede
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 140843
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE MID-SOUTH...

A positively tilted upper trough will pivot across the Southern
Plains, while a low pressure system develops at the surface today.
Mid-level diffluence will shed lobes of vorticity over parts of
the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley,
providing ample forcing for convection to develop. Thus, showers
and thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage this afternoon
starting over north-central Texas, into central Oklahoma and
spreading eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The
associated surface wave should strengthen into a rather anomalous
mid-latitude cyclone by tonight, which is when a line of convection
may initiate over east Texas and begin to propagate east across
the central Gulf Coast.

Instability will be most robust (250-750 J/Kg) over east Texas,
southern Arkansas and Louisiana through tonight. 1-2" PWATs will be
2-3 stndv above average and could produce 0.25"-0.75"/hr rates
with higher rates possible within linear convective bands moving
through east Texas and within any potential training/backbuilding
convection that occurs along a surface front draped over Arkansas.
Guidance is hinting at potential for slow moving cells to generate
an isolated flash flood threat over portions of Missouri this afternoon.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...

The marginal risk area from yesterday's issuance remains mostly
the same, with the only change being an expansion northward in
Virginia. The potent low pressure system that will bring heavy
rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley today will continue to
spread moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
Sunday afternoon into evening in the Southeast, along the same
cold front responsible for potential linear convection over the
central Gulf Coast today.

MLCAPE will be modest at around 250-500 J/Kg, while PWATs hover
between 1-1.75" over the Southeast. Phasing of this southern stream
system with a northern stream one emerging from the Ohio Valley
could enhance precip. coverage over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon
into tonight.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A slight risk was introduced, in coordination with local offices,
across parts of the central and southern California Coast. A closed
mid-level low will weaken while shedding lobes of vorticity over
the West Coast on Monday. An upper-level jet streak (100-140 kts)
will gradually increase in intensity throughout the day as it sags
south from central to southern California. A surface wave will
develop and spread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the
central to southern coastal ranges below 6500-5000ft Monday
morning and into the early evening.

PWATs in the 0.5"-0.9" range within a relatively buoyant
atmosphere (100-200 J/Kg) and a 30-40 kt low level jet, could
support efficient rain rates especially within any convection that
develops. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

Kebede
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 150840
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...

A closed mid-level low will cut across the Southeast and into the
Atlantic today. A squall line propagating through the Central Gulf
Coast this morning will weaken into more of a QLCS as it
progresses through the Southeast this afternoon. Severe
thunderstorm are possible over portions of Alabama, Georgia and
Florida, where instability will be the greatest (300-600 J/Kg
MUCAPE). That combined with PWATs in the 1-2" range and a 30-40kt
LLJ could generating efficient rain rates capable of producing
isolated flash flooding. Relatively dry soils and the progressive
nature of the QLCS mitigate the flash flood threat in the Southeast.

A deeper layer moisture profile over the Mid-Atlantic
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys may produce higher areal totals today,
but the rates are more likely to be lower than in the Southeast due
to less CAPE. That being said, some upslope enhancement is possible
over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, where soils are
fairly saturated/susceptible to flash flooding. HREF probabilities
seem to support the higher areal qpf footprint found in the CAMS
over the Mid-Atlantic today.

...California...

A deep low pressure system will slowly glide down the California
coastline today, while the mid-level shortwave associated with it
weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorms
could produce instances of flash flooding, particularly over urban
areas, burn scars and saturated soils beginning this afternoon.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western
United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap
subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th
percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper
level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could
support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250
J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates.
Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur)
and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding.

Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24
hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding),
especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS
and CMCE are well over 50%.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the
California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of
weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall at this time.

Kebede
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 160819
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A mid to upper-level trough will propagate into the West Coast,
while a surface wave does the same this afternoon. Showers and
scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread south from the
central California coast this morning down to SoCal tonight. The
most impactful rainfall will likely occur between late morning and
early evening. A combination of favorable upper and LLJ dynamics
(120+ kts upper, 40-50 kts 850 mb respectively) within a
relatively moist (0.75-1" PWATs representing the 90th percentile)
and an unstable environment (100-300 J/Kg MLCAPE) will likely
produce efficient rain rates this afternoon, especially over parts
of the Central CA Coast down through the San Rafael Mountains and
northern Los Angeles metro.

HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate over a 25% chance of
exceeding 2" in 24 hours by Tuesday morning across much of the
aforementioned areas, with some embedded signals for 5"+ within
upslope areas of the Transverse Ranges and Santa Lucia Range. Burn
scars, urbanized and upslope areas will be especially susceptible
to runoff. Progressive storm motion will mitigate flash flood risk.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on
Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast.
Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a
marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San
Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so
upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow
where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall
will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that
occurs within the marginal risk area.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026

...THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 170829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A mid-level disturbance centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast
will shift south and east into California today. At the surface, a
cold front will propagate through the Great Basin and arrive in
the Intermountain West by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the north/central
California Coast to SoCal this evening.

Instability will be modest, between 50-150 J/Kg MUCAPE, between
00z-12z tonight, which coincides with when the mid-level vort max will
be directly overhead. Precipitable water values in the 0.5-0.75"
range won't be very anomalous (1-2 stndv), however isolated pockets
of efficient rain rates around 1" are possible within areas of
higher instability and PWATs. Upslope enhancement along the Central
California and Transverse ranges could lead to higher totals in
those areas. Lower snow levels on the backside of Monday's cold
frontal passage will see most of the higher mountain peaks realize
higher QPF in the form of snow.

Antecedent conditions from Monday's rainfall will make soils and
burn scars susceptible to runoff today. Urban areas will continue
to be vulnerable. HREF neighborhood probabilities show a strong
signal for at least 1 inch within much of the current marginal risk area.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 190824
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...Southern California...
A strong mid-level shortwave will bring an increase in rainfall to
southern CA this morning into the afternoon. This is a quick moving
system that will not have a lot of moisture to work with. Plenty
of cold air aloft though, which will allow for upwards of a couple
hundred J/kg of CAPE and some localized heavier rainfall rates.
The quick cell motions and limited moisture will keep rainfall
totals generally under 1", possibly as high as ~1.5" in favored
upslope areas. Hourly rainfall should peak in the 0.25"-0.5" range,
although very localized amounts over 0.5" are probable. Overall,
we would not expect these totals or rates to result in a
significant flood risk. Given high soil moisture from rainfall
earlier this week, this additional rainfall could be enough to
result in localized minor flood impacts.

...OH valley into central Appalachians...
Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms may result in
a localized flood risk today into tonight across portions of
eastern KY, southern OH and into WV and southwest PA. WAA this
morning into this afternoon will result in an uptick in convection
across this corridor, with the cold frontal passage tonight accompanied
by additional showers and thunderstorms. By late tonight much of
this region could be looking at 1-2" of rainfall, with localized
totals potentially getting into the 2-3" range.

The 06z HRRR and 00z Gem Reg are in good agreement on this
axis of heavier rainfall, with the 00z ECMWF and AIFS in the same
ballpark as well. Not really sure why the 00z ARW, ARW2, 3km NAM
are so sparse with convection and light with rainfall totals. Their
evolution is not supported by the favorable mesoscale and large
scale pattern, and so prefer leaning towards the wetter non- ncep
guidance and recent HRRR runs. Based on forecast instability and
recent HRRR output, hourly rainfall could locally approach and
exceed 1" across this corridor both with the WAA convection and
cold frontal activity. NASA SPoRT soil moisture analysis shows
above average soil saturation across this region as well. So,
while not expecting widespread or significant flood impacts, the
combination of total rainfall locally exceeding 2", hourly rainfall
approaching 1", and high soil saturation...suggests that at least
some minor runoff concerns could evolve today into tonight.

An axis of stronger convection may materialize farther northwest
of the Marginal risk across portions of IL/IN/OH. While heavier
short term rates are likely here, the current expectation is that
activity will be more progressive and thus the higher rates more
short lived. Soil conditions are also considerably drier across
this corridor, and so we will not include this region in the
Marginal risk for now.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 200802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

An axis of heavier rainfall is probable Saturday across portions of
southern to central AL/GA into southern SC. Plenty of instability
is forecast and some west to east training of convection is a
possibility. With that said, the overall system is progressive, and
even if we are able to get localized swaths of 2-3" of rain the
FFGs across this region are higher than that. Thus at this point
think the risk of flash flooding remains below 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Rainfall totals from the NBM and most ensemble systems have been
trending down through 12z Monday across northwest CA into
southwest OR. This is due to farther north and west IVT axis and
more of a south to north orientation just offshore or right along
the coast. Much of this region has seen well below average rainfall
over the past month, and soil saturation and streamflows are below
average. The combination of the dry antecedent conditions and a
downward QPF trend warranted the removal of the inherited Marginal
risk area. Instead rainfall Sunday into Sunday night is more likely
to help prime the region for some possible flood impacts Monday
into Tuesday as a stronger plume of moisture moves onshore.

Chenard
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 210730
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

An axis of heavier rainfall associated with fast-moving but
training showers and thunderstorms across portions of central
Alabama and Georgia into southern South Carolina could locally
produce rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. These showers and
storms may train to some extent. Ultimately despite the potential
for storm total rainfall in some of these areas to exceed 2 inches,
FFGs across this region remain very high due to recent dry weather.
The risk of flash flooding still remains below 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

An atmospheric river (A.R.) of moisture directly out of the
tropics will take aim at much of the West Coast on Monday. A pair
of lows will help direct that rainfall from as far south as 10N and
aim it from southwest to northeast at northern California, western
Oregon, and portions of southern Washington. While the tropical
connection will be there, the lows off the coast will be rather
weak and generally meandering. Thus, while rainfall rates may
exceed 1/2 inch per hour at times, totals are unlikely to cause
more than isolated flash flooding since upslope and forcing will be
somewhat lacking. The inherited Marginal Risk is essentially
unchanged, other than removing a portion of the Washington Cascades
where snow is likely to be the dominant precipitation-type. The
A.R. should very slowly drift south down the coast, so the flooding
threat due to heavy rain should ease with time into Washington,
while increasing into California.

Wegman
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 220800
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A deep positively tilted trough extends from around Vancouver
Island southwest down past the Hawaiian Islands at the start of the
period 12Z Monday. This trough extending that far south will draw
deep tropical warmth and moisture and rapidly draw it northeastward
into the Pacific Northwest on a 170 kt southwesterly jet. At the
surface, a low west of Vancouver Island will track southwestward
and merge with a weaker, smaller low. This will allow an impulse of
tropical moisture departing from the Hawaiian Islands to track into
the Oregon and Washington coasts by Monday night as a weak surface low
develops within the moisture plume.

Rain associated with the onshore flow will impact mainly the
Washington and Oregon coasts during the day Monday, gradually
sinking south in response to the approaching impulse of moisture
from the tropics. The low and associated heavy rain moves into the
coast near the OR/CA border Monday night. Since its track is
somewhat parallel to the coast, a rather small percentage of the
moisture will penetrate into the interior, so the coastal mountains
are likely to take the lion's share of the associated rain. The
warmth moving into the coast will allow snow levels across much of
Northern California to rise above 8,000 ft Monday night around the
OR/CA border, and above 10,000 ft further south towards the Bay
Area and Sacramento. This will initiate the snowmelt process across
all of the coastal Ranges and Sierra Nevada Mountains. The
inherited Marginal Risk remains unchanged for this area as recent
cold and snow has kept stream and creek levels at low levels. Thus,
the rain and snowmelt will begin to contribute to stream rises but
flooding should remain rather isolated as much of the rain gets
absorbed into the snowpack.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...

A deep positively tilted trough that extends from Vancouver Island
southwest through the Hawaiian Islands will remain the primary
steering mechanism for an atmospheric river from the tropics and
into Oregon. This moisture will be aided by a 150 kt southwesterly
jet. This jet and the downstream ridging over the Southwest will
flatten out as the trough cuts off into an upper low well north and
east of Hawaii. This will cut off the feed of tropical moisture
into the West Coast by Tuesday night. Thus, the period of heaviest
rains will be primarily during the day Tuesday. A surface low
Tuesday morning will be near where the coast meets with the CA/OR
border. Since the rain associated with the low has origins in the
tropics, associated elevated instability, anomalous warmth and
moisture will all move into northern California. Snow levels will
rise to over 8,000 ft over much of northern California, and over
9,000 ft across much of the northern Sierra Nevada. This will
result in occasionally heavy rain associated with elevated
convection that quickly tracks northeastward into northern
California. Rainfall rates could exceed 3/4 inches per hour at times.

Meanwhile recent abundant heavy snow from abnormally low snow
levels will be replaced with this tropical moisture and warmth. The
now very high snow levels will initiate the snow melting process.
When the heavy rain moves in over that snow pack, expect initial
absorption of the rain by the snow pack Tuesday morning, but as
more rain moves in Tuesday afternoon, it's likely that areas of
less deep snowpack, such as the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and
the Shasta, Siskiyou, and Salmon Ranges will all see rapid runoff
occur, sending local streams, creeks, and rivers rising very
quickly. This will be the combined result of both heavy rain and
fast snow melt. Given the expected rapid rises from both small
creeks to large rivers, flash flooding is likely to be a bit more
widespread. Thus, a Slight Risk upgrade has been hoisted for the
Sierra Nevada foothills, where the heaviest rains are expected due
to the greatest magnitude of upslope. However, heavy rains into the
other Northern California ranges may necessitate an expansion of
the Slight Risk with future updates.

Wegman
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 230803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A deep positively tilted trough extending from British Columbia
southwest towards the Hawaiian Islands will be flanked on its
southeast side with a 170 kt southwesterly jet. This jet will be
aimed at western Washington State for the first half of the day on
Monday. Meanwhile, a weakening surface low embedded within that
trough will help direct an atmospheric river (A.R.) which extends
from the tropics east of Hawaii northeast into the West Coast. As
the jet streak reorients, a surface low will develop along that
plume, locally enhancing rainfall rates into southern Oregon and
northern California Monday night. Meanwhile, snow levels will rise
to above 8,000 ft. The combination of locally heavy rain as the low
and its associated cold front move ashore and snowmelt through the
coastal mountains from northern California through southern
Washington will likely raise local stream, creek, and river levels
such that isolated flash flooding is possible, especially in any
more flood-prone areas. The inherited Marginal Risk was mostly
unchanged, but a slower southward progression did require some
trimming of the inherited Marginal Risk area north out of the Bay
Area, as it no longer looks like meaningful rain will reach that
far south during this period.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...

Few changes were needed to the inherited risk areas across northern
California. The cold front associated with a low that will move
inland and dissipate into Oregon will keep a steady stream of
subtropical Pacific moisture moving into northern California for
much of the day Tuesday. The rain will be aided, in part, by the
persistent 150 kt jet, aimed at southwestern Oregon. The rain
shield looks to stay more over northern California and not get
quite as far south into the southern Sierras, so the inherited
Slight and Marginal Risks were trimmed on their south sides. A few
other notable changes were somewhat of a decrease in total rainfall
expected, due in part to the expectation of less elevated
convection than previous forecasts. However, given the recent
multiple feet of snow that fell into the northern Sierras over the
past week or two, there is plenty of snow to melt as snow levels on
Tuesday remain between 8,000 and 9,000 feet across all of the
northern Sierras. Thus, while confidence in Slight Risk level
impacts occurring has decreased a bit, there still remains enough
to maintain the Slight across the northern Sierra Nevada and their
adjacent foothills. The rain will continue pushing south but
rapidly diminish in intensity Tuesday night. This combined with
falling snow levels by Wednesday will end the flash flooding
threat, though river levels will likely remain elevated through late week.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 240803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...

Very few changes were needed to the overall risk areas across
California and extreme southwest Oregon. Steady moderate rain is
ongoing from northern California through Oregon and southern
Washington. An area of surface low pressure that is at the leading
edge of a plume of moisture originating from the tropics will move
ashore in Oregon later today. The trailing cold front will guide
the tropical moisture into northern California, leading to multiple
hours of steady rain into the northern Coast Ranges, the Klamath
Ranges, and the northern Sierra Nevada.

The plume of moisture moving into northern California has also
brought with it much warmer air. Snow levels have risen to between
8,000 and 10,000 ft; 8,000 closer to the OR border and 10,000 near
I-80. These much higher snow levels moving over the mountains that
have multiple feet of new snow on them from the storms the past
few weeks is leading to accelerated snow melt. As the rain that has
already begun in this area falls on the snow pack, much of it will
be absorbed. However, after multiple hours of rain through the day,
expect more of it to convert to runoff as combined snow melt and
rainfall. Thus, instances of flash flooding, particularly in the
Slight Risk area of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and
adjacent foothills to increase into this afternoon and tonight.
Rain will come to an end late tonight, but the flooding could
continue beyond that. Somewhat lesser rainfall amounts are expected
into the northern coastal ranges. There is also significantly less
snowpack in the coast ranges, so there will be less snow to melt
and turn into runoff. For these reasons, the Marginal Risk remains in place.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Southeast...

The Marginal Risk across much of the Southeast was dropped with
this update. The progressive pattern, good northwesterly flow
behind the front, very limited instability, drier than average
soils, and high FFGs will all work against the development of flash
flooding across the Southeast on Thursday. RRFS and the global
models suggest a line of storms may develop across Tennessee and
then sweep south across the Southeast. A line of storms aligned
orthogonal to the movement of the line rarely, if ever, results in
flooding. While it's possible for a pair of storms to train over
the same areas at either end of the line, it seems unlikely that
will occur over a particularly flood-sensitive area. The flood
threat is likely less than 5 percent.

Wegman
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 010645
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA...

A mid/upper wave initially over the Intermountain West/Central
Rockies will make eastward progress throughout the forecast period,
fostering surface cyclogenesis in the general vicinity of southern Kansas/Oklahoma. As this occurs, an expansive warm/moist advection
regime will become established across much of the Mississippi/Lower
Ohio River Valleys and Missouri Ozarks. A warm front will become
established in the general vicinity of the I-70 corridor across
central Illinois, providing a focus for areas of repeating
rainfall/convection supported by westerly steering flow aloft
parallel to the front. A few areas of 1-2 inches of rainfall are
possible. Main uncertainties/mitigating factors for excessive
rainfall involve 1) extremely dry antecedent conditions in most
areas, with soil moistures quite low for the time of year, 2)
uncertainly in location of the warm front and associated precip
axis (GFS north, EURO/UKMET farther south), and lack of surface-
based instability for deep convection. Marginal Risk area has been
maintained for this outlook from the prior D4 ERO, though uncertainties/mitigating factors have led to a substantial
shrinking of this risk from the prior forecast.

Cook
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 020812
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

Models remain consistent in developing an axis of precipitation
along a warm front extending generally from southeastern Kansas
eastward along the Ohio River Valley. Models do vary, however, with
specific location of this front. Areas of 0.5-1.5 inch of rainfall
are expected within the Marginal Risk area, with a few spots
exceeding 2 inches possible. The nature of the front (parallel to
westerly steering flow aloft) will enable some training, and if
deeper convection can organize (as suggested by the ECMWF), locally
higher amounts may be observed. Antecedent dry conditions continue
to remain a limiting factor for flash flood potential as much of
the region has very high soils and is in drought. A few issues with
runoff are possible - with potetial maximized in the Marginal Risk
area during the 00Z-12Z Wed 4 Mar forecast period.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Low-level warm advection will intensify across the southern Plains
and Ozarks as a mid-level wave approaches the central Plains
(while taking a neutral tilt) throughout the forecast period. As
this occurs, low-level cyclogenesis and strengthing of a surface
cold front over eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will foster areas of deep
convection that should migrate northeastward across the Marginal
Risk area. Models suggest that initial convection should
materialize as scattered clusters within the broader warm conveyor
from north Texas into Missouri, with a gradual congealing into a forward-propagating complex late in the period. Specific spatial
details regarding this evolution are unclear, but areas of 2-3.5
inches of rainfall appear to be likely where cells can repeat/merge
on a localized basis. Soil moistures/antecedent conditions are
quite dry, however, casting some doubt on the runoff potential
across the region. Nevertheless, varied/locally sensitive terrain
(especially in the Ozarks) and heavy rainfall suggests at least
isolated runoff issues can be expected. Depending of specific
convective evolution, a Slight Risk may be needed in portions of
Missouri in later outlooks.

Farther northeast (into Indiana and Ohio), the D3 forecast period
will mark a second consecutive day of potential 1 inch rainfall
along/near a surface warm front across the region. Overall
instability profiles remain marginal, but with wetting soils, a
gradual increase in excessive runoff potential may necessitate a
Marginal Risk area in later outlooks.

Cook
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 030830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

Models have solidified their agreement in an axis of 1-2 inch
rainfall totals generally from northeastern Missouri eastward
through southern Ohio. These totals will coincide with an east-west
oriented front across the region, with point forecast soundings
suggesting fairly fast cellular motions and minimal surface-based
instability. The main contributor for flash flood potential with
this axis is repeating/training rainfall, though dry antecedent
conditions remain a mitigating factor for a larger-scale flash
flood risk. One exception to this is West Virginia - soil
moistures are relatively wet there compared to points west.
Rainfall totals may be somewhat lighter there too though (0.5-1.5
inches), also keeping any flash flood potential isolated.

Cook


Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

Minimal changes are made to the inherited outlook. At the mid-
levels, an approaching trough will reach the central Plains during
the forecast period. As this occurs, strengthening, confluent low-
level flow from north Texas into the Missouri Ozarks will aid in
moisture transport and eventually deep convective development
especially during the afternoon/evening hours. That convective
development will migrate from southwest to northeast within the
aforementioned warm conveyor, with areas of training/repeating
possible along with local rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches
through 12Z Thursday. The collocation of these rainfall totals with varied/sensitive terrain over southwest Missouri/northwest Arkansas
suggests that higher probabilities and a Slight Risk may need to be
introduced at some point. Lingering concerns regarding antecedent
conditions (very dry soils) and eventual convective evolution
(models exhibiting a slight westward trend over the past 24 hours)
gives pause on introducing an upgrade at this time, however.
Current trends suggest that the greatest risk of flash flooding
will exist along an axis from Fayetteville, AR to Rolla, MO,
though this axis may change between now and Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Farther northeast, areas of rain (approaching 1-1.5 inch total in
spots) will develop from southern Illinois eastward through West
Virginia in similar locations that are expected to receive 1-2
inches of rain during the D1 forecast period (Tuesday into Tuesday
night). Soils should continue to moisten during this period, with
isolated instances of flash flooding remaining possible.

Cook


Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Models are in general agreement that longwave trough will deepen
across the Intermountain West, spreading southwesterly flow aloft
over a large part of the Great Plains. Meanwhile, low-level
moisture advection will aid in an airmass characterized by 1.25-1.5
inch PW values along and just east of a dryline generally extending
from near Goodland to near Amarillo. Models depict scattered
convection developing amid supercellular wind fields Thursday
afternoon, with a mix of cells and linear segments possible along
parts of the dryline. Local cell mergers may result in a couple
spots of 2-3 inch rainfall totals in this regime, though the
overall footprint of heavier rainfall should be too small to even
delineate a Marginal Risk area at this timeframe. Antecedent dry conditions/drought are also mitigating factors for flash flood
potential. This scenario will need to be monitored for any
potential increase in convective coverage that might necessitate a
Marginal in later outlooks.

Cook
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 040802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...

Upper air pattern from the Central Rockies to the Ohio Valley
remains relatively amplified with a deep shortwave trough analyzed
across CO, slowly ejecting out into the Front Range this evening.
At the surface, a weak surface reflection remains parked over
southwest MO with a trailing cold front analyzed back through OK
into the TX Panhandle. Expected evolution of the entire pattern
will yield a slow-moving cold frontal approach across the Southern
Plains with sights downstream on the Mid and Lower-Mississippi
Valley area as we move into the front half of D1. Defined confluent
flow within a persistent axis of diffluence across E TX into the
Mississippi Valley will allow for a continuation of convective
pulses to develop and propagate northeast along the trailing front
with a multi-wave complex of thunderstorms expected to impact areas
from north TX up through eastern OK, northwest AR, eventually
through southern MO. Relative instability remains modest, at best
ahead of the trough axis with general theta_E favored environment
located along and south of the cold front bisecting the above areas.

PWAT anomalies between 2-3 deviations above normal will enhance
heavy rain prospects within any cell maturation with a broad axis
of at least light to moderate rain likely ongoing from later this
morning, carrying through the afternoon. A brief period of
generally lighter rainfall is anticipated prior to sunset, however,
expectation is for round two to develop with the advent of the
budding 850mb LLJ positioned southeast of the surface low as it
finally begins to migrate east-northeast from southern MO. The
multi-wave precip forecast will allow for priming of the dry soils
currently in place across the Ozarks with forecasts of 3-5" totals
being projected via the latest CAMs in areas hit multiple times by
the waves. Widespread 1-2" are forecast surrounding with the
"bullseye" of precip aligned from far eastern OK up through
northwest AR into southern MO with the heaviest likely occurring
over the rugged terrain of the Ozarks between AR and MO. 00z HREF
neighborhood probs for >3" of rainfall are running between 40-80%
over the above zone with low-end probs (15-30%) for >5" across
southern MO, south of I-44. This seems to have a good consensus
when assessing the more conservative EAS probs with modest
probabilities (35-60%) for at least 2" running just east of
Springfield to just west of I-55.

Despite those drier antecedent conditions, longevity in the threat
for heavy rainfall given the dual-wave structure of the precip
field will allow for isolated to scattered flash flood prospects.
In coordination with the Springfield, MO and Little Rock, AR WFO's,
a SLGT risk ERO was introduced in the latest update encompassing
through areas from far eastern OK up through northwest AR into southern MO.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Pattern across the western half of the CONUS becomes highly
amplified as a potent upper trough migrate east off the Pacific
with sights downstream on the Rockies and eventually the Southern
and Central Plains as we move into the end of the week and beyond.
There's still some discrepancy on exactly where the heaviest precip
will arise as the meridional component of the upper levels will
certainly open the door for any areas across the Southern Plains
to Mississippi Valley to experience scattered to widespread heavy
rainfall prospects with the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley likely the most susceptible to more prolific convective
modes. Given the positioning of central and east TX up through the
ArkLaTex within a persistent diffluent upper level regime and the
best instability maximum located within the fresh Gulf moisture
advection pattern thanks to prevailing south to southeast flow,
there is a growing concern for heavy rainfall to initiate and move
overhead in these general areas. This threat extends further
northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley as noted via precip
footprint off the latest ensemble blends, including the NBM and
bias-corrected ensemble. Deterministic is all over the place with
regards to specifics, however, and with the period outside CAMs
windows, it's a bit too early for a SLGT risk proposition with
still some time to discern details as we move closer. The MRGL risk
inherited was maintained, but expectation for an upgrade is
relatively high given the nature of the setup.

Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 041600
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

16Z Update...

Changes for this update include south and eastward expansions of
the Slight Risk over the Ozarks to account for a generally heavier
convective footprint over eastern OK up across much of northwest AR
and southern MO. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
across these areas over the next 12 to 18 hours will likely prime
the otherwise dry soils sufficiently to increase the threat for
runoff problems and some isolated to potentially scattered areas of
flash flooding. Increasing CAPE and rather anomalous PWs pooling up
along a strong frontal zone working in tandem with ejecting
shortwave energy should favor relatively organized convective
clusters. The activity later today and tonight will be capable of
locally training over the same area given favorable deep layer
steering flow aligning with the frontal placement. Still thinking
locally 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals which is in good agreement with
the 12Z HREF probabilistic output.

An area to closely watch for this evening/overnight will also be
parts of central and northern TX (including the DFW metropolitan
area) as there are several 12Z CAM solutions (ARW/ARW2, HRRR and
RRFS) showing relatively slow-moving and rather discreet pockets of
convection with high rainfall rates in close proximity to the cold
front settling down across this region. Antecedent conditions are
dry, but the high rainfall rates, and slower cell-motions may
foster locally several inches of rain which certainly would drive a
threat for at least isolated flash flooding concerns and especially
if they manifest into a more urbanized environment. As such, the
Marginal Risk has been broadened down into these ares of central
and northern TX.

A Slight Risk has been introduced across portions of the OH Valley
including southern IN, southern OH, far northern WV and a small
part of northwest WV where locally a combination of additional
rounds of heavy rain (1 to 2+ inches) coupled with wet antecedent
conditions from recent rainfall will foster greater runoff
concerns. Already many areas this morning have lingering runoff
problems from last night's 1 to 3 inches of rain that fell, so the
additional rains will strongly contribute to elevated streamflows
and runoff concerns.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

Upper air pattern from the Central Rockies to the Ohio Valley
remains relatively amplified with a deep shortwave trough analyzed
across CO, slowly ejecting out into the Front Range this evening.
At the surface, a weak surface reflection remains parked over
southwest MO with a trailing cold front analyzed back through OK
into the TX Panhandle. Expected evolution of the entire pattern
will yield a slow-moving cold frontal approach across the Southern
Plains with sights downstream on the Mid and Lower-Mississippi
Valley area as we move into the front half of D1. Defined confluent
flow within a persistent axis of diffluence across E TX into the
Mississippi Valley will allow for a continuation of convective
pulses to develop and propagate northeast along the trailing front
with a multi-wave complex of thunderstorms expected to impact areas
from north TX up through eastern OK, northwest AR, eventually
through southern MO. Relative instability remains modest, at best
ahead of the trough axis with general theta_E favored environment
located along and south of the cold front bisecting the above areas.

PWAT anomalies between 2-3 deviations above normal will enhance
heavy rain prospects within any cell maturation with a broad axis
of at least light to moderate rain likely ongoing from later this
morning, carrying through the afternoon. A brief period of
generally lighter rainfall is anticipated prior to sunset, however,
expectation is for round two to develop with the advent of the
budding 850mb LLJ positioned southeast of the surface low as it
finally begins to migrate east-northeast from southern MO. The
multi-wave precip forecast will allow for priming of the dry soils
currently in place across the Ozarks with forecasts of 3-5" totals
being projected via the latest CAMs in areas hit multiple times by
the waves. Widespread 1-2" are forecast surrounding with the
"bullseye" of precip aligned from far eastern OK up through
northwest AR into southern MO with the heaviest likely occurring
over the rugged terrain of the Ozarks between AR and MO. 00z HREF
neighborhood probs for >3" of rainfall are running between 40-80%
over the above zone with low-end probs (15-30%) for >5" across
southern MO, south of I-44. This seems to have a good consensus
when assessing the more conservative EAS probs with modest
probabilities (35-60%) for at least 2" running just east of
Springfield to just west of I-55.

Despite those drier antecedent conditions, longevity in the threat
for heavy rainfall given the dual-wave structure of the precip
field will allow for isolated to scattered flash flood prospects.
In coordination with the Springfield, MO and Little Rock, AR WFO's,
a SLGT risk ERO was introduced in the latest update encompassing
through areas from far eastern OK up through northwest AR into southern MO.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Pattern across the western half of the CONUS becomes highly
amplified as a potent upper trough migrate east off the Pacific
with sights downstream on the Rockies and eventually the Southern
and Central Plains as we move into the end of the week and beyond.
There's still some discrepancy on exactly where the heaviest precip
will arise as the meridional component of the upper levels will
certainly open the door for any areas across the Southern Plains
to Mississippi Valley to experience scattered to widespread heavy
rainfall prospects with the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley likely the most susceptible to more prolific convective
modes. Given the positioning of central and east TX up through the
ArkLaTex within a persistent diffluent upper level regime and the
best instability maximum located within the fresh Gulf moisture
advection pattern thanks to prevailing south to southeast flow,
there is a growing concern for heavy rainfall to initiate and move
overhead in these general areas. This threat extends further
northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley as noted via precip
footprint off the latest ensemble blends, including the NBM and
bias-corrected ensemble. Deterministic is all over the place with
regards to specifics, however, and with the period outside CAMs
windows, it's a bit too early for a SLGT risk proposition with
still some time to discern details as we move closer. The MRGL risk
inherited was maintained, but expectation for an upgrade is
relatively high given the nature of the setup.

Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 051246
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 1245Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

13z Update: We sent a quick update to expand the Marginal risk
into southeast OK. Ongoing convection is exhibiting some
training/backbuilding characteristics this morning. This activity
is not being handled well by the high res guidance, but with
recent cloud top cooling, upstream instability, and wind fields
favorable for backbuilding...it seems probable that this convection
will persist for at least a few more hours resulting in a
localized flash flood risk.

Chenard

...Ohio River Valley...

Potent mid-level shortwave propagation over the Central Plains will
continue over the course of this evening into D1 with a core axis
of diffluence centered over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys in
the beginning of the period. Multiple vorticity maxima will eject
northeast out of the Ozarks area with a stationary front at the
surface bisecting areas from North TX up through the Ohio River
Basin. Moisture transport with the setup is pretty much aligned
parallel to the mean flow leading to more organized convective
clusters propagating along the front, disseminating some relatively
solid QPF output from Dallas up through the north-central Ohio
Valley. Models are in agreement on the shortwave propagation out of
the Ozarks this evening to migrate northeast with an eventual
secondary wave of heavy precip impacting areas along the Ohio River
Basin, including as far west at the confluence of the
Ohio/Mississippi Rivers and points east-northeast along the Ohio
River bordering KY/IL/IN/OH. Multi-day rainfall output will place
areas of IN/OH within another period of rainfall which is already
causing issues for places south of I-70 in both states.

Heaviest rainfall is progged to occur to the southwest with the
signal via the latest 00z HREF really emphasizing the corridor at
the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio rivers up through the
KY/IL/IN border, much of which falling between the 12-21z time
frame today. Neighborhood probs for >2" are between 40-60% over the aforementioned area with a few deterministic CAMs producing
between 3-5" over the time frame. Considering the nature of the
overlap of heavy rainfall occurring tonight and then again in the
morning/early afternoon, there was enough of a signal to add a MRGL
risk for the region in question.

...Southern Plains...

Stationary boundary across TX will lift north during the morning
and afternoon period today with a quick theta_E advection regime
taking shape across much of the Southern Plains. Upstream trough
axis pushing through the west will help to re-amplify the flow
across the South-Central U.S. with a low pressure center forming
across the Front Range with a trailing dryline maturing across the
western TX Panhandle up down through southwest TX. Increasing
ascent within the diffluent axis downstream of the longwave trough, ample instability located downstream of the dryline, and increased bulk
shear profiles will promote a favorable instance of convective
development and maintenance of present updrafts. NAEFS PWAT
percentile forecast is pushing the 99th percentile via
climatological norms across the region from the Red River, north
through the western half of OK into southern KS by late this
afternoon and beyond. This is a testament to the anticipated
proliferation of convective cells within the favorable environment,
each of which will be capable of heavy rain cores with hourly rates
pushing 2-3"/hr at peak intensity as noted via some of the latest
CAMs. Despite this area signifying higher FFG's due to a dearth of precipitation lately, this setup is conducive for stronger
convection as noted via the SPC's Slight Risk outlook for severe
weather focused within that area downstream of the dryline. A low-
end scenario for flash flooding is the forecast for this particular
domain just given the deep moist favorability, as well as the
organized convective pattern likely to exhibit some pretty hefty
rainfall in localized areas as the cells migrate to the east and
northeast. A MRGL risk was added for the region encompassing North
TX up through western OK into southern KS.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCLUDING THE ARKLATEX...

...ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...

Highly amplified pattern across the western CONUS will shift
eastward over the course of the end of the week and weekend leaving
a broad axis of convective development downstream over the Southern
Plains up into the Midwest to the Mississippi Valley. Guidance is
beginning to come into agreement on the area located from northeast
TX up through the ArkLaTex to the western half of the Lower
Mississippi Valley a focal point for heavy, organized convection
capable of flash flood concerns. Instability and moisture presence
will not be limited in this synoptic evolution with a robust
meridional push of favorable theta_E's thanks to a funneling of
Gulf moisture poleward downstream of the mean trough. Slow-moving
cold front across the Central and Southern Plains will pick up
speed by the end of the forecast period with a defined warm sector
situated from the eastern half of TX up through the Missouri Valley
with PWAT anomalies pushing 2-3 standard deviations above normal
for the time frame. Ensemble bias corrected QPF is now pushing over
2" across the ArkLaTex with the convergence signal strongest over
the three-state region as the nocturnal LLJ is forecast to nose
into the area promoting the most favorable axis for organized
convection and eventual cell mergers after sunset. CAMs are still a
bit out of range for this threat, however the signals are already
creeping into the end of their temporal ranges with some already
showing 2" of precip with more to come across this area of the
CONUS. This setup is bordering textbook for these kinds of
convective evolutions and impacts which lends enough favor to
upgrade the previous MRGL risk inheritance to a SLGT risk for the
highlighted zones. This setup is one to monitor as short term
convective trends could adjust the risk positioning further west
thanks to the overall amplified evolution.

...Midwest...

Amplified pattern to the west will impact the north-central CONUS,
as well as the wavy stationary front over the Central Plains and
Mississippi Valley will lift rapidly to the north as a warm front,
allowing for a steady increase in regional buoyancy and deep
moisture presence. Upper pattern out west will evolve into a setup
that splits the main shortwave in two, ejecting a piece of the
mid-level vortmax rapidly to the northeast leading to lee
cyclogenesis over western KS, lifting to the northeast. The
combination of increasing shear and ascent at both the surface and
aloft will allow for a heavy convective conglomeration to
materialize over the Missouri River Valley and points east with
sights on the Midwest with a centroid over IA/Southern WI/Northwest
IL. The good news is the setup is progged to be moving quickly, so
any impacts will be short but locally intense. Localized flash
flood prospects are forecast for the above areas as the convective
pattern will promote rates between 1-2"/hr at peak intensity,
enough to approach, and/or eclipse the lower end of the FFG
thresholds in place. The previous MRGL risk was maintained as a
result with only minor adjustments made to the east and northeast
fringes to the risk area.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

As the longwave pattern across the western half of the CONUS
materializes and the surface reflections make their headway to the east/northeast, the cold front trailing the primary low moving
into the Great Lakes will continue its progress through the
Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley losing latitude as it
propagates to the southeast. As the low moves further away and the
setup begins to lose upper level favor, the cold front is expected
to "fan out" as it approaches the Gulf coast leading to convective
alignment along and just ahead of the front to slow its progression
with the mean flow becoming a bit more parallel to the frontal
alignment. Moisture and instability will be plentiful with the
environment primed from a rich Gulf moisture advection regime that
will take place the previous 48 hrs. Models are in agreement on an
axis of heavy QPF located from TX to points northeast over portions
of AR/LA/western TN/northwest MS. There will likely be an area of
3+" of precip as noted via modest NBM probs for the threshold
(10-30%) and 90th percentile QPF output pushing over 3" for part of
east TX into northern LA with widespread 2+" outputs surrounding.

This setup is notorious for conditions to prime and favor areas
further southeast just due to the better instability maxima and
deeper moisture layer ahead of the front naturally positioned
closer to the Gulf coast. Pending forward propagation speed of the
cold front, heavy rainfall could very well make a push towards the
I-10 corridor down by Houston to Lake Charles, but the jury is
still out for those areas. Higher confidence in heavy rainfall is
just north of there with the areas of the Piney Woods in east TX up
through I-20 into LA as the main targets at this juncture. High
FFG's will likely thwart considerable flood prospects, as well as
the setup promoting at least steady convective progress to lower
training concerns. That still doesn't mean those concerns would
alleviate at least scattered flash flood concerns, but there's
still more time to assess location specifics before interjecting an
upgrade at this time. For now, a broad MRGL risk was maintained,
but the threat will warrant some consideration of an upgrade as we
move closer in time and get into the CAMs temporal window(s).

Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 061600
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCLUDING THE ARKLATEX...

...16Z Update...
Minor adjustments overall made to the overnight forecast thinking.
Based on the 12Z HREF suite, the inhereted Slight Risk was
extended slightly northward into the Missouri Ozarks which
partially overlaps with an area of recent heavy rainfall.
Otherwise, the Marginal Risk in the Ohio Valley was removed as both
the HREF and RRFS suggest the threat of exceeding an inch of rain
(around the 1 HR FFG for the area) is below 5%.

Asherman

...Previous Discussion...

...ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...

Highly amplified pattern across the western United States will
shift eastward today and tonight setting up a broad axis of
convective development downstream over the Southern Plains up into
the Midwest to the Mississippi Valley. Instability and moisture
being drawn northward from the Gulf gets in place ahead of an
approaching cold front that provides a focus for another round of
storm later today and tonight with heavy rainfall expected in a
well defined warm sector situated from the eastern half of Texas
into the Missouri Valley where precipitable water anomalies
pushing 2 or 3 standard deviations above normal for the time frame
should be in place. Ensemble bias corrected QPF from 06/00 remained
over 2 inches across the ArkLaTex with the convergence signal
strongest over the three-state region as the nocturnal Low Level
Jet is forecast to nose into the area promoting the most favorable
axis for organized convection and eventual cell mergers after
sunset. The previously issued Slight Risk was maintained with only
minor adjustments based on latest model guidance.

...Midwest...

Amplified pattern to the west will have impacts on the evolution
and related threat of excessive rainfall over the Upper Midwest as
a wavy boundary to the south lifts to the north as a warm front
later today and tonight. The combination of vertical wind shear and
the approach upper level shortwave will result in a deepening
surface low over Kansas later today which draws increasing moisture
and instability into the Upper Midwest later today and
tonight....resulting in convection capable of producing heavy
rainfall over the Missouri River Valley and points east. Any risk
for excessive rainfall should be offset a bit by quick storm
motion. 00Z HREF and RRFS both ramp up the probability for 1 inch
of accumulation early in the Day 1 period which moves off to the
northeast and dissipates this morning...followed by redevelopment
this evening in central and northeast Iowa. Provided an apron
around this area to account for uncertainty in where the convection
redevelops. As a result...the previous Marginal risk was largely
maintained with only minor adjustments.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

The previously issued Slight risk across portions of Texas into
Mississippi was maintained given a consistent signal in the
numerical guidance of a corridor of heavy rainfall. The actual
extent and magnitude of the flash flood risk remains a bit
uncertain relating to how quickly activity propagates off to the
south and east. Some guidance supports a rather quick southward
propagation of convection, which could keep the flash flood risk
more isolated in nature. However, the 06/00Z guidance from both the
HREF and RRFS still maintain be an opportunity for some along axis
training even with some southward propagation. The HREF probability
was notably more aggressive with its neighborhood probabilities for
1 inch per hour rate than was the RRFS...especially at the start
of the Day 2 period but eventually converge on similar values on
Saturday afternoon. At that point the RRFS begins to increase
probabilities of 1 and 2 inch probabilities ahead of the front as
it sags southward (after the last forecast hour from the HREF). Thus
think there is enough going for this event to justify maintaining a
broad Slight risk with this update.

A Marginal risk was also extended as far north as western NY.
Plenty of moisture will advect northward along this corridor, with
as much as 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE as well. Thus while areal
averaged rainfall is not that impressive, there will be an
opportunity for locally heavy rates. With saturated conditions
over portions of the OH Valley, and some snow pack and frozen
ground over NY...these higher rates could be enough to locally
result in excess runoff and minor flood concerns.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

Deep moisture...instability and the risk of excessive rainfall
should be confined to a shrinking area as a cold front makes its
way southward on Sunday. Model guidance showed a corresponding
decrease in QPF and spaghetti plots from the SREF and the GEFS
maintaining a few members with probabilities of 2 inches in the 24
hour period ending at 12Z Monday from eastern Texas eastward. This
reflected a downward trend in the deterministic QPF. During the
latter half of the period...Gulf moisture starts to return
northward over southwestern Texas later in the period...so made a
westward expansion of the Marginal risk area.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 070830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Maintained the Slight risk area from the Southern Plains into the
Lower Mississippi Valley and the Upper Texas coast...with an
expansion that effectively brought the Slight Risk area to the
Upper Texas coast and nearby Louisiana given the 07/00Z HREF and
RRFS probabilities for 24 hour rainfall 2-inch and 3-inch
thresholds. There were even a few neighborhood probabilities
exceeding 10 percent at the 5 inch threshold. Of course the actual
extent and magnitude of the flash flood risk remains a bit
uncertain relating to how quickly activity propagates off to the
south and east. Some guidance supports a rather quick southward
propagation of convection, which could keep the flash flood risk
more isolated in nature. The HREF guidance tended to side with the
faster solution and the RRFS was slower and was more aggressive
with its probabilities for 1- and 2-inch per hour rates. At this
point...tended to favor the HREF guidance and associated models
although can not entirely rule out the faster solutions.

A Marginal risk surrounding the Slight Risk area extended north and
east as far as western New York. There should be plenty of moisture
advectiving northward along this corridor, with as much as
500-1000 j/kg. Thus while areal averaged rainfall is not that
impressive, there will be an opportunity for locally heavy rates.
With saturated conditions over portions of the Ohio Valley, and
some snow pack and frozen ground over New York...any enhanced
rainfall rates could be enough to result in isolated/locally excess
runoff and minor flood concerns.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

Deep moisture...instability and the risk of excessive rainfall
should be confined to a shrinking area south of an approaching
cold front on Sunday. Model guidance showed a corresponding
decrease in QPF and spaghetti plots from the SREF and the GEFS
maintaining a few members kept neighborhood probabilities of 1 inch
or greater confined from Louisiana into Georgia with greatest
clustering from southern Mississippi into central and southern
Alabama with QPF spaghetti plots showing few members at 2 inch
amounts in 24 hours from either the SREF ir GEFS. In this portion
of the Marginal risk...there was good agreement between WPC and the
CSU machine learning first-guess ERO. The WPC Marginal Risk area
extended west along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast if
deference to the HREF and RRFS runs which lingered some 1+ in per
hour rainfall along the coast and even some 2 inch per 6 hour
lingering through at least 08/18Z. In addition...Gulf moisture
starts to return northward over southwestern Texas later in the
period...also supporting a westward expansion.

Bann


Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...

The front which had been moving from west to east in the Day 1 and
Day 2 period will slow its forward motion and become oriented along
a west to east axis on Monday and the start to inch northward
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is a wide range of
solutions in where convection could fire along that boundary which
limits confidence. However...confidence is higher in the occurrence
of showers and thunderstorms occurring rather than details of where
that could happen given precipitable water values approaching 1.75
inches ready to to be lifted isentropically above the front as low
level flow becomes southerly. The area should become better focused
in subsequent outlooks.


Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS30 KWBC 072322
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


Mainly due to convective progression, there has been a significant
shrinking in both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas. The
mesoscale guidance most suggests that heavy rain issues from 01z
onward lie from the Upper TX Coast eastward towards Mobile. The
degree of moisture, instability, and effective bulk shear available
near and equatorward of a cold front continues to support the
potential for hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4".

While not depicted as a separate Slight Risk, mainly because it's
out in Brush Country, portions of interior South TX have a chance
in the very near term for heavy rainfall as well. Although they are
included in the Marginal Risk category, it's a higher end Marginal
Risk in that area. Overall, much of the rainfall expected is
beneficial, relieving long term drought conditions. The intensity
of organized convection and where storms can train and/or merge
would threaten urban areas most.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

2100 UTC update:

No changes made to the previous marginal risk area across the Gulf
coast region.

Oravec

Previous discussion:

Deep moisture...instability and the risk of excessive rainfall
should be confined to a shrinking area south of an approaching
cold front on Sunday. Model guidance showed a corresponding
decrease in QPF and spaghetti plots from the SREF and the GEFS
maintaining a few members kept neighborhood probabilities of 1 inch
or greater confined from Louisiana into Georgia with greatest
clustering from southern Mississippi into central and southern
Alabama with QPF spaghetti plots showing few members at 2 inch
amounts in 24 hours from either the SREF ir GEFS. In this portion
of the Marginal risk...there was good agreement between WPC and the
CSU machine learning first-guess ERO. The WPC Marginal Risk area
extended west along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast if
deference to the HREF and RRFS runs which lingered some 1+ in per
hour rainfall along the coast and even some 2 inch per 6 hour
lingering through at least 08/18Z. In addition...Gulf moisture
starts to return northward over southwestern Texas later in the
period...also supporting a westward expansion.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY...

2100 UTC update:

Only some minor changes made to the marginal risk area from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Upper Tennessee Valley. Changes
made were to cover the latest qpf spread for locally heavy precip
totals day 3 across these regions.

Oravec

Previous discussion:

The front which had been moving from west to east in the Day 1 and
Day 2 period will slow its forward motion and become oriented along
a west to east axis on Monday and the start to inch northward
Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is a wide range of
solutions in where convection could fire along that boundary which
limits confidence. However...confidence is higher in the occurrence
of showers and thunderstorms occurring rather than details of where
that could happen given precipitable water values approaching 1.75
inches ready to to be lifted isentropically above the front as low
level flow becomes southerly. The area should become better focused
in subsequent outlooks.


Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 090822
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY & SOUTHEAST...

Model agreement has started to increase QPF-wise and the present
Marginal Risk area was adjusted to fit the broad pattern of
potentially heavy rainfall advertised by the 09/00Z runs of both
the HREF and REFS guidance. Precipitable water values approaching
1.75" return somewhat northward as low level flow begins to back
and accelerate in the lower levels. It appears that enough
moisture, instability, and effective bulk shear will be present
near the lower level section of a frontal zone for hourly amounts
to approach or even exceed 2 inches. Flash flood guidance has
lowered due to heavy rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night/early
Sunday morning to partially saturated soils. However, the
mesoscale guidance signal for 3"+ is low enough at the present time
to remain in the Marginal Risk category as any flash flooding
impacts appear no better than isolated to widely scattered.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

Gulf moisture gets drawn northward over parts of the central U.S.
from Texas into the Upper Mississippi Valley and southern Great
Lakes region in response to circulation around an upper level low
over the Southwest U.S.. This moisture will encounter a southward
moving cold front from the Upper Midwest and an area of low
pressure along the front over Kansas or Nebraska on Tuesday. This
combination should result in convection being capable of producing
some heavy rainfall rates that results in run off or flooding
concern across the southern & central Plains and somewhere in the
neighborhood of the Midwest and/or Ohio Valley. The better
instability...and higher rainfall rates...look to be over the
southern part of the outlook area given better instability and due
to increasingly diffluent flow aloft as the Southwestern U.S. upper
low approaches. Farther north...the concern for excessive rainfall
comes from stronger synoptic scale forcing due to the approach of
an amplifying trough in the northern stream.

Based on increasing numerical guidance agreement from the
09/00Z runs...felt confident enough to separate the one Slight
risk area from yesterday's Day 2 outlook into two Slight risk areas today.

Some places within each Slight Risk received heavy to excessive
rainfall in the past few days which has added to soil saturation
across portions of the Midwest, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Not enough confidence yet to expand the area
deeper into the Midwest/Ohio Valley due to the lack of any notable mid-
level capping but the possibility remains.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...Southern US...
Maintained a Marginal Risk area over portions of the southern
states as an upper low propagates eastward on Wednesday. The upper
level support for heavy rainfall should be waning with time as the
upper low undergoes slow weakening and filling. Even so...enough
low level moisture will be in place as mid-level lapse rates
steepen and increases instability at the time of maximum heating.

...Pacific Northwest...
Persistent on-shore flow of deep moisture into parts of coastal
Washington and northern Oregon should result in occasional moderate rainfall...mainly in the west face of the coastal ranges. Amounts
on the order of 2.5 inches to 3.5 inches in 24 hours is forecast
which could result in isolated flooding ot run off problems in
areas of poor drainage.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 100822
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

The signal for potentially two heavy precip axes persists in the
guidance..in the very favorable coupled jet entrance/exit regions
expected between the southern stream closed low moving into the
Southern Plains and the northern stream jet across Mid Mississippi
Valley and the Midwest region.

Gulf moisture gets drawn northward over parts of the central U.S.
from Texas into the central portion of the Mid-Mississippi Valley
during the day. There has been a trend in the model guidance over
the past 24 hours for the core of the higher precipitable water
values to get shunted more eastward than northeastward...resulting
in lower model QPF despite the upper support and mid-level
mesoscale forcing remaining favorable. Consequently...trimmed the
Slight Risk area to cover only portions of Illinois and Indiana
where QPF exceeded an inch and which overlapped areas that
experienced moderate to heavy rainfall a few days ago and have
suppressed flash flood guidance.

The better instability...and associated higher rainfall
rates...still look to be over portions of Texas into southeast of
Oklahoma as flow aloft becomes increasingly difluent in response to
an approaching upper low. .Mixed layer CAPE values of 1500 to
around 2500 J per kg develop ahead of the low where precipitable
water values will have risen into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range
resulting in the potential for 1+ inch per hour rates. The axis of
model QPF and WPC deterministic QPF align well with modestly-
lowered flash flood guidance from rainfall several days ago.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN US...

The upper low over the southern states will continue to translate
eastward on Wednesday. The upper support will be weakening as the
system weakens/fills with time. Model run to run consistency has
been poor and another round of changes were made this cycle. The
changes included introduction of a Slight Risk over parts of
eastern Texas and western Louisiana where model QPF exceeded two
inches. In addition...there was some overlap between locally heavy
rainfall a couple of days ago and the QPF.

...Pacific Northwest...
Persistent on-shore flow of deep moisture into parts of coastal
Washington and northern Oregon should result in occasional moderate rainfall...mainly in the west face of the coastal ranges. Amounts
on the order of 2.5 inches to 3.5 inches in 24 hours is forecast
which could result in isolated flooding ot run off problems in
areas of poor drainage.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES...

...Pacific Northwest...
On-shore flow of deep moisture into parts of coastal Washington
and northern Oregon persists into the Day 3 period that results in
occasional moderate to locally heavy rainfall continuing along the
coastal ranges. An additional 1 to 3 inches in 24 hours are
possible...which could result in isolated flooding ot run off
problems in areas of poor drainage.

Bann
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 110827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN US...

As the closed low moves across the central and eastern Texas
today...an axis of training convection should persist from the
eastern part of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. With very
strong synoptic forcing and increasing moisture transport we
should see convection expand in coverage and intensity over eastern
Texas by mid- to late-morning. During the development phase cell training/backbuilding is probable over east TX, and while
convection should grow upscale and forward propagate during the
afternoon, some west to east training is possible near the
southward dropping cold front. The inherited Slight risk was
expanded off to the south and east once again to account for model
trends into parts of Mississippi and western Alabama.

Only minor nudges were needed to the Marginal risk area across the
Ohio Valley and into western New York where rainfall rate driven
localized flash flooding is possible. Areal averaged rainfall is
only 0.5"-1.5", but given the 500-1000 j/kg and convective nature
of rainfall, the possibility of localized swaths of rainfall
exceeding 2 inches persists. This should be enough to at least
locally exceed FFG across this region. Over western NY, snow melt
and locally heavy rain may combine to result in areas of excessive runoff.

Chenard/Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

Coastal Areas of Washington into Northwest Oregon...

Only change was to nudge the Marginal risk back to the west just a
bit given the placement of heavier snowfall in the Cascades.
Despite that change...much of the shift made by the previous shift
was retained in this outlook.

On-shore flow of deep moisture into parts of coastal Washington
and northern Oregon persists into the Day 2 period...with occasional
moderate to locally heavy rainfall continuing along the coastal
ranges. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in 24 hours is
possible...which could result in isolated flooding ot run off
problems in areas of poor drainage.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

The on-shore flow which has been anchored along coastal portions
of Washington and northern Oregon will finally start to shift its
focus southward a bit from Friday into early Saturday morning. The
axis of a precipitable water plume with values of 0.75 to 1.00
inches will gradually be shifting southward into Oregon which
allows precipitation rates to weaken farther north. With the rain
moving into an area with drier antecedent condition...maintained a
Marginal Risk area.

Bann
$$
d
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 120821
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

An axis of anomalous PW and 850-700 mb moisture flux
values...1.5-2.5+ and 2 to 4+ standard deviations above the mean,
respectively, will continue to impact southern WA state into
northern Oregon from the Cascades westward to the Coast Ranges.
Hourly rainfall rates are not expected to be very impressive, at
most .10-.25"+. However, there is not expected to be a lot of
movement, overall with this anomalous onshore flow, which will
support rain for nearly all of the day 1 period in this axis.
Heaviest precip likely in the upslope of the southern WA Cascades
and far northern OR Cascades, where HREF and RRFS neighborhood
probabilities are high for 2 and 3"+ amounts day 1. Changes to the
previous outlook were to trim the marginal risk southward out of
coastal southern WA, and through the Willamette Valley to better
match the latest model qpf consensus.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

Not a lot of changes expected overall to the large scale flow
pattern off the northeast Pacific into portions of the Pacific
Northwest day 2. The ongoing atmospheric river event will continue
through much of the day 2 period, with the axis of anomalous PW
and 850-700 mb moisture flux values...1.5-2.5+ and 2 to 4+
standard deviations above the mean, respectively, again impacting
areas from southern WA state into northern Oregon from the Cascades
westward to the Coast Ranges. Similar to the day 1 period, the
hourly rainfall rates are not expected to be very impressive, at
most .10-.25"+. However, there will continue to be little overall
movement with this anomalous onshore flow axis, which will support
additional heavy rainfall amounts in the upslope of the northern
OR/southern WA Cascades and the northern OR Coast Range. Changes to
the previous outlook were to trim the marginal risk area over
southern WA and remove it from the Willamette Valley to better
match the latest model qpf consensus.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance values
is less than 5 percent.

Oravec
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 130745
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

Final day of impact from a continuous AR regime that has doused the
Pacific Northwest with several inches of precipitation the last
72+ hours. Continued fetch off the Pacific will maintain its
composition for another period with a slow shift south in the
primary moisture advection regime as the approach of a final, yet
potent shortwave helps press against the prevailing height field
situated across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. A
modest 600-800 kg/ms IVT signature has been persistent within a
zone oriented from Olympia down towards the WA/OR border.
Expectation is for the IVT advection pattern to pivot south to
include more of northwest OR extending inland into the southern WA
and northern OR Cascades leading to an extended moderate
precipitation band through Friday into early Saturday.

Current rates are still subject to be focused between 0.25-0.5"/hr
at peak intensity with perhaps a few localized areas within the
upslope regions of the Cascades to breach closer to 0.6-0.75/hr at
times. This alone falls below the FFG criteria for the region,
however its the longevity and recent priming that would tip the
scales towards a low-end flash flood scenario, especially within
the confines of any urbanized zones. Downsloping into the
Willamette Valley should cause a regional min with this setup
leading to lower probabilities of any flood concerns in the
shadowed zone. City of Portland remains right on edge of persistent
rain bands and waves of moderate rainfall with the heaviest likely
to focus closer to Astoria and over into the adjacent Cascades
thanks to the upslope component. D1 QPF indicates the sharp
delineation in the split maxima with Portland proper right on the
edge of the higher totals. Considering a solid run-to-run
continuity across guidance the past 24-36 hours, there wasn't
really any reason to deviate from the previous MRGL risk
inheritance as 2-4" of rainfall with local maxima of 6" possible in
the Cascades are enough to warrant at least a low-end risk.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance values
is less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance values
is less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 131550
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Mar 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

16Z Update...

Generally no change to the previous thinking concerning the long-
duration atmospheric river impacting the Pacific Northwest.
However, we did proceed with adding a second Marginal Risk area to
portions of southeast WA, northeast OR and west-central ID to
account for heavy rains persisting at some of the lower elevations
across these areas since the inland core of stronger IVT
magnitudes continue to impact this region. Antecedent conditions
across these areas have become increasingly sensitive with the
rainfall of the past couple days, and given high streamflows, the
additional rains here may encourage some localized flooding concerns.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

Final day of impact from a continuous AR regime that has doused the
Pacific Northwest with several inches of precipitation the last
72+ hours. Continued fetch off the Pacific will maintain its
composition for another period with a slow shift south in the
primary moisture advection regime as the approach of a final, yet
potent shortwave helps press against the prevailing height field
situated across the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia. A
modest 600-800 kg/ms IVT signature has been persistent within a
zone oriented from Olympia down towards the WA/OR border.
Expectation is for the IVT advection pattern to pivot south to
include more of northwest OR extending inland into the southern WA
and northern OR Cascades leading to an extended moderate
precipitation band through Friday into early Saturday.

Current rates are still subject to be focused between 0.25-0.5"/hr
at peak intensity with perhaps a few localized areas within the
upslope regions of the Cascades to breach closer to 0.6-0.75/hr at
times. This alone falls below the FFG criteria for the region,
however its the longevity and recent priming that would tip the
scales towards a low-end flash flood scenario, especially within
the confines of any urbanized zones. Downsloping into the
Willamette Valley should cause a regional min with this setup
leading to lower probabilities of any flood concerns in the
shadowed zone. City of Portland remains right on edge of persistent
rain bands and waves of moderate rainfall with the heaviest likely
to focus closer to Astoria and over into the adjacent Cascades
thanks to the upslope component. D1 QPF indicates the sharp
delineation in the split maxima with Portland proper right on the
edge of the higher totals. Considering a solid run-to-run
continuity across guidance the past 24-36 hours, there wasn't
really any reason to deviate from the previous MRGL risk
inheritance as 2-4" of rainfall with local maxima of 6" possible in
the Cascades are enough to warrant at least a low-end risk.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance values
is less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance values
is less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)