FOUS11 KWBC 090734
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026

...Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies... Day 1...

A shortwave trough crossing the area will be positioned atop the
interior Northwest to start the period, and then translate rapidly
eastward through D1. This feature will likely shear out into the
westerlies as it advects into the High Plains in response to rapid
ridging building in its wake, but there has been a subtle trend of
increased amplitude of this feature tonight. This shortwave will
work effectively with an intensifying upper jet streak to overlap
mid-level height falls with LFQ diffluence, leading to sufficient
ascent to produce a wave of low pressure along a cold front south
of the region.

Additionally, this jet streak will result in increasing mid-level frontogenesis, especially within the 700-500mb layer, which will
produce impressive omega directly into the DGZ. Although ascent
will be temporally modest, cross-sections indicate a high threat
for CSI within any snow bands that develop, and this could (30-60%
chance) produce 1-2"/hr snowfall rates. The heaviest snowfall is
likely in the terrain of the Absarokas and near Yellowstone NP due
to upslope enhancement, but anywhere across southern MT and
northern WY could see bands of heavy snowfall which will accumulate
rapidly despite marginal thermals in the low- levels. The high-res
guidance has trended upward significantly, as have many of the
globals, so confidence has increased in significant snowfall
accumulations, which is now reflected by WPC probabilities that
indicate a high risk (>70% chance) for at least 4 inches, with more
than 12 inches possible in the higher terrain including the Lewis
Range and Tetons.

...Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies... Days 2-3...

A closed mid-level low will approach central California from the
west on Tuesday before slowly filling into an open, positively
tilted trough Wednesday as secondary vorticity energy digs towards
Baja. This slow evolution will result in pronounced S/SW flow
aloft, which will combine with a strengthening jet streak to spread
moisture onshore CA and then expand eastward towards the Central
Rockies by late Wednesday. This prolonged, albeit relatively
modest, moisture plume/IVT will bring much needed precip to the
Great Basin and central Rockies through midweek.

Snow levels will be at or just below 7000ft along the Sierra Nevada
on Tuesday in the onshore flow, dropping to around 6000ft Tuesday
night under height falls. Great Basin/Rockies snow levels will
generally remain 6000-7000ft through midweek.

2-day snow probabilities from WPC suggest a near certainty (>90%)
of at least 8 inches across much of the Sierra with locally as much
as 2 feet possible (30% chance) in the higher Sierra. Additional
snowfall totals exceeding 8 inches are possible (50-70%) for parts
of the Uintas, Colorado Rockies, and northern CA ranges.

...Northern Great Lakes and Northeast... Days 1-3...

A closed mid-level low will elongate and track from the Northern
Great Lakes to across New England mid-week, exiting to the Gulf of
Maine by Thursday morning. This upper feature will be accompanied
by an extended vorticity lobe on its south side, helping to produce
strong ascent through height falls/PVA across the region. As this
develops, pronounced warm air advection (WAA) will develop to its
south as a surface low /clipper type/ races southeast beneath the
upper trough. This will produce two rounds of ascent: first with
the intensifying WAA south of the surface low, and then second with post-clipper CAA/upslope flow.

While the ascent within the WAA will be impressive, it will also be
of short duration, generally 6-12 hours, so although snowfall rates
will likely be intense (50-70% chance of 1+"/hr), the total
snowfall accumulations will be tempered as reflected by WPC
probabilities that are around 30% for 4+ inches across the U.P. of
MI D1, and then 30-70% on D2 for Upstate NY and northern/central
New England. Despite that, some more significant snowfall
accumulations are likely across the Tug Hill Plateau, the
Adirondacks, and the Greens where a combination of CAA for lake
effect snow (in the Tug Hill) and upslope snow (Adirondacks and
Greens) will lengthen the duration of accumulating snowfall. In
these areas, locally more than 8 inches of snow is possible
(10-30%, highest across the Tug Hill Plateau).

Finally, as the closed low moves into the Gulf of Maine, a surface
low will deepen offshore in response. While direct impacts from
this surface low are not expected to be significant, the guidance
is hinting at a lingering inverted trough pivoting back across
coastal Maine Wednesday. These inverted troughs can sometimes lead
to sneaky-heavy snowfall accumulations, so although current WPC
probabilities are around 50-70% for 4+ inches of snow, this will
need to be monitored for any upticks as the event gets closer.


Weiss


$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 100716
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026

...Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies... Days 1-3...

Mid-level low over the Pacific will gradually pivot eastward
towards northern CA through Wednesday, lingering across the state
as it slowly fills. Immediately downstream of this feature, a
subtropical jet streak will intensify, especially late this evening
into Wednesday morning, reaching towards 150 kts as it pivots over
central CA. This upper jet will provide favorable LFQ diffluence
overlapping the most significant height falls for pronounced
synoptic ascent, while additionally transporting Pacific moisture
onshore CA before spreading into the Great Basin and Central
Rockies. The evolution of this synoptic pattern suggests that SW
flow downstream of the primary trough axis will support prolonged
moisture advection, which is reflected by IVT probabilities from
both the GEFS and ECENS exceeding 90% for 250 kg/m/s for around 24
today into Wednesday. This moisture will be wrung out by the
significant deep layer ascent (aided by upslope flow especially
across the Sierra) to produce heavy snowfall above generally
6000-7000 ft, with the most intense snowfall rates (2+"/hr
according to the WPC prototype snowband tool) occurring across the
Sierra tonight into Wednesday. WPC probabilities across the Sierra
are high (>70%, 2-day totals) for more than 12 inches in the high
SIerra, but widespread 8+ inches is likely (>70%) for the breadth
of the Sierra and into parts of the northern California terrain.

As the system continues eastward and the upper jet strengthens
over the Great Basin to central Rockies, moisture will continue to
funnel from the sub-tropics into the Four Corners region on
southwesterly flow. Snow levels will waver around 6000-7000ft with
modest amounts expected in an area that has seen very little snow
this season. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are

50% above 7000ft or so in UT and 8000ft in WY, highest over the

Uintas and Wind Rivers/Tetons. Snow will linger longest over the
CO Rockies through Thursday as the moisture plume stalls there as a
result of a second shortwave trailing the lead system, maintaining
SW flow through the end of this period. WPC probabilities for at
least 8 inches are high for 8+ inches across much of the highest
terrain of the Colorado Rockies, with a local maximum above 12
inches expected across the Park Range.

...Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast... Days 1-2...

A clipper-type low will dig southeast from Ontario through New
England today, exiting into the Gulf of Maine late tonight. This
clipper will be driven primarily by a closed, but weakening, mid-
level low tracking atop it, with elongated vorticity to its south
producing additional ascent. As this upper low shifts off New
England, it will interact with an occlusion well off the coast,
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the Atlantic. This
synoptic evolution will result in 3 areas of moderate to heavy snowfall:

1) Pronounced warm-air-advection (WAA) developing south of the
clipper will surge northeast atop a warm front across the Mid-
Atlantic and into the Northeast. This will create an expanding
shield of precipitation, and although some light mixed
rain/snow/freezing rain is expected over the northern Mid-Atlantic,
much of this precipitation should fall as snow across New England
and Upstate New York. The snow that occurs will likely be heavy at
times within a WAA band, likely exceeding 1"/hr (60-90% chance),
with the short temporal duration limiting the total snowfall.
Still, impactful snow is likely this evening and tonight spreading
from west to east.

2) Post-clipper cold-air-advection (CAA) will become impressive in
the wake of the low. This will create increasing lake effect snow
(LES) despite significant ice cover now over the Great Lakes, as
well as intensifying upslope snow into the terrain of the
Adirondacks and Greens. Very dry air beneath the subsidence
inversion will impinge into the DGZ from above during this time, so
that will act to limit snowfall intensity within the upslope
regime, but additional accumulations are likely. LES will also be
somewhat modest, and focused east of Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill
and then southeast towards the Finger Lakes region, as well as far
SW NY east of Lake Erie.

WPC probabilities for 2+ inches of snow are high (>70%) for much
of northern Upstate NY, as well as central/northern New England.
However, the more substantial snowfall is likely in the higher
elevations where WPC probabilities suggest a high risk (>70%) for
at least 4 inches in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, with
locally as much as 8 inches possible. For the LES areas, WPC
probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for least 4 inches. For the
freezing rain, a swath of moderate probabilities (>50%) exists for
0.01+" of ice from the Finger Lakes through the Poconos and into
southern New England and Long Island. Although amounts should be
less than 0.1"

3) Finally, as the surface low deepens rapidly offshore and near
Nova Scotia Wednesday, the guidance continues to suggest a
lingering inverted trough will pivot near the coast of Maine. Where
this occurs, additional ascent will be locally impressive, leading
to the potential for several inches of additional snowfall. These
inverted troughs can sometimes lead to sneaky-heavy snowfall
accumulations, so while WPC probabilities are moderate for 6+
inches (50-70%), locally higher totals are possible as reflected by
significant spread in the WSE plumes along the coast of Maine.

Weiss


$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 110625
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast...
Day 1...

The strong clipper-type low will continue to push east off the New
England coast as the driving shortwave aloft races to the
southeast. The vorticity accompanying this shortwave will help
develop secondary low pressure along a triple point well offshore
(near Nova Scotia), with this secondary low deepening as it pulls
away. Although this low should be well too far east to bring any
direct impacts to the Northeast, the guidance continues to indicate
an inverted trough will pivot cyclonically around the low, bringing
enhanced ascent to the coast of Maine, resulting in bands of heavy
snow. Some uncertainty continues with the exact placement of these
bands, but the high-res is quite agreeable in their occurrence.
This suggests that while WPC probabilities for 4+ inches are just
30-50% across primarily the Downeast coast of Maine, some locally
higher totals are probable as reflected by pronounced spread in the
WSE plumes.

Additionally, in the wake of this clipper, increasing CAA
atop the Great Lakes, despite significant ice cover, will result in
periods of lake effect snow, primarily E/SE of Lake Ontario with
some lighter snowfall east of Lake Erie which is mostly ice
covered. WPC probabilities for this LES are high (>70%) for 4+
inches for the western Adirondacks, Tug Hill Plateau, Finger Lakes
region, and northern Chautauqua Ridge. The greatest accumulations,
which may exceed 8 inches (30% chance) are across the Tug Hill.


...Sierra Nevada to the Central/Southern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A closed mid-level low positioned along the coast of northern CA
will generally fill in place as the accompanying longwave trough
elongates back to the southwest as secondary vorticity energy
rotates through the base ot approach southern CA and Baja by Friday
morning. This stalled evolution will result in a resurgence of an
upper level jet streak to sharpen downstream of this trough axis,
and while the secondary jet streak tonight into Thursday won't be
as powerful as the lead jet, it will maintain moisture advection
and broad LFQ diffluent ascent from CA into the Central Rockies.
The overlap of this jet streak with broad but persistent SW mid-
level flow also downstream of the primary trough axis will surge
moisture eastward as far as CO as reflected by NAEFS IVT
percentiles surging to above the 99th percentile in CO, with
prolonged anomalies above the 90th percentile back into the Great
Basin.

This plume of moisture will be primarily shed eastward within a WAA
plume, so snow levels will be generally 6000-7000 ft, lowering
slowly as the trough axis pivots eastward, but this will likely be
accompanied by rapid drying and a resulting cutoff of
precipitation. For this reason, the heaviest snowfall accumulations
are likely to be above 7000 ft (as high as 8000 ft in CO), with a
wane in precipitation expected as snow levels fall. WPC
probabilities D1 are high for at least 6 inches of snow in the high
Sierra, the Uintas/Wasatch, the Tetons/Wind Rivers, and parts of
the CO Rockies including the Park Range. D2 probabilities compress
and fall rapidly, leading to just residual elevated probabilities
above 30% for 4+ inches in the CO Rockies.


...Southern Rockies...
Day 3...

The same secondary shortwave responsible for elongating the trough
over CA/Great Basin D2 will shed eastward Friday morning, moving
across southern CA/Baja Norte before closing off once again near
the Four Corners Friday evening. This evolution will promote
downstream ascent through impressive height falls paired with
modest jet streak amplification, leading to widespread deep layer
lift spreading into the Four Corners and southern Rockies Friday
into Saturday. The antecedent thermal structure will be modest for
snowfall (snow levels 8000-9000 ft), but increasing ascent within
a moistening column will expand precipitation and allow for snow,
which could be heavy, especially in the higher terrain of the
Sangre de Cristos, White Mountains, and San Juans, with some
dynamic cooling of the column possible later D3 as some deformation
develops across northern NM. Still a lot of uncertainty in the
exact evolution, but at this time WPC probabilities indicate a
moderate to high risk (50-90% chance) for at least 4 inches in the
higher terrain.


The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Weiss


$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 120819
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...Central & Southern Rockies... Days 1-2...

A broad upper-level trough west of Baja California is funneling
anomalous moisture into the Four Corners region today with modest
500-700mb Q-vector convergence over the central Rockies. The lack
of a continental polar (cP) airmass is keeping periods of snow
confined to elevations above 8,000ft in the Wasatch and CO Rockie
today and into Thursday night. A brief lull in the snowfall occurs
Thursday night, but heavier snowfall returns to the Central and
Southern Rockies on Friday as the aforementioned upper trough
moves east towards AZ. 700-500mb height falls, 500mb PVA, and PWs
above the 90th climatological percentile will support mountain
snow as far south as the Gila Mountains to as far east as the
Sangre De Cristo range. Similar to Thursday's snowfall, the lack of
a reasonably cold airmass will keep snow levels above 7,000ft,
with the heavier snowfall totals residing above 8,000ft. The
increased upper-level synoptic-scale forcing will improve snowfall
rates in the higher terrain compared to Thursday. 48-hour WPC
probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall
totals >4" in the Wasatch, the AZ Gila Mountains, and the CO/NM
Rockies, with the higher confidence in snowfall >4" being above
9,000ft. In the peaks of the CO Rockies and Gila Mountains, there
are some low chance probabilities (<30%) for snowfall totals >8"
through Saturday morning.

...Northern New York... Days 2-3...

A progressive 500mb vorticity max over Ontario Friday afternoon
will provide sufficient upper-level ascent atop a low-level warm
front driven by a narrow sliver of 850mb WAA. Guidance is coming
into better agreement on a period of moderate snow, potentially
falling heavily at times, along the shores of Lake Ontario on east
into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks Friday night. Mean flow out of
the NW with residual 700-300mb moisture will support lingering
periods of snow into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks into Saturday
morning before tapering off by Saturday afternoon. Most snowfall is
likely to range between a coating-3" for much of northern New
York, although the Tug Hill and Adirondacks do show low chances
(<20%) for localized amounts >4" through Saturday morning.

...Washington Cascades & Northern Rockies... Days 2-3...

An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will dive south just
off the coast of British Columbia and direct a plume of rich
Pacific moisture at the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon and
through Saturday morning. A passing cold front and height falls in
advance of the encroaching upper trough will cause snow levels to
drop as low as 2,000ft in the Olympics and Cascades. Elevations in
the WA Cascades above 4,000ft sport the better chances for snowfall
amounts surpassing 6", while most elevations below 3,000ft range
between a coating-3". WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes are between 30-50%. The
plume of Pacific moisture spills eastward into the Northern Rockies
with the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, and Lewis Ranges most likely to
receive measurable snowfall starting Friday evening and continuing
throughout the day Saturday. Similar to the Cascades, most snowfall
totals will be minor (coating-3"), although some localized totals

6" in the peaks of the Bitterroots and Lewis Range are possible.

The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than 10 percent.

Mullinax

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 130819
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026

...Central & Southern Rockies... Days 1-1.5...

A broad upper-level trough lifting northeastward over Baja
California will continue to funnel anomalous moisture into the
Four Corners region today with 500-700mb Q-vector convergence over
the central and southern Rockies. The lack of a continental polar
(cP) airmass is keeping periods of snow confined to elevations
above 8,000ft throughout the Four Corners' mountain ranges today
and into early Saturday morning. 700-500mb height falls, 500mb PVA,
and PWs above the 90th climatological percentile will support
mountain snow as far south as the Gila Mountains to as far east as
the Sangre De Cristo range. The increased upper-level synoptic-
scale forcing will improve snowfall rates in the higher terrain
with >1"/hr rates at times. 48-hour WPC probabilities show
modertae-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" in the
AZ Gila Mountains and the CO/NM Rockies, with the higher
confidence in snowfall >6" being above 9,000ft. In the peaks of
the CO Rockies and Gila Mountains, there are some low chance
probabilities (<30%) for snowfall totals >8" through Saturday morning.

...Northern New York... Day 1...

A progressive 500mb vorticity max over Ontario Friday afternoon
will provide sufficient upper-level ascent atop a low-level warm
front driven by a narrow sliver of 850mb WAA. Guidance is coming
into better agreement on a period of moderate snow, potentially
falling heavily at times, along the shores of Lake Ontario on east
into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks Friday night. Mean flow out of
the NW with residual 700-300mb moisture will support lingering
periods of snow into the Tug Hill and Adirondacks into early
Saturday morning before tapering off by midday. Most snowfall is
likely to range between a coating-3" for much of northern New York,
although the Tug Hill features low chances (<20%) for localized
amounts >4" through Saturday morning.

...Cascades & Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will dive south just
off the coast of British Columbia and direct a plume of rich
Pacific moisture at the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and
into Saturday. A passing cold front and height falls in advance of
the encroaching upper trough will cause snow levels to drop as low
as 2,000ft in the Olympics and Cascades. Elevations in the WA
Cascades above 4,000ft sport the better chances for snowfall
amounts surpassing 6", while most elevations below 3,000ft range
between a coating-3". WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes are between 40-60%. The
plume of Pacific moisture spills eastward into the Northern Rockies
with the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, and Lewis Ranges most likely to
receive measurable snowfall starting Friday evening and continuing
throughout the day Saturday. The Northern Rockies will remain
downstream of a robust 250mb jet streak and steady 500mb PVA
advection through Sunday as well, keeping snow in the forecast
through the weekend's conclusion. Similar to the Cascades, most
snowfall totals will be minor (coating-3") at the lower elevations.
For the more remote elevations above 5,000ft in the Bitterroots and
Lewis Range, 2-hour WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) for snowfall totals >8" with totals surpassing 12" above
6,000ft in the Lewis Range. Meanwhile, as the passing cold front
will sinks southward over the OR Cascades, snow levels will remain
around 4,000ft with most heavy snowfall staying in the more
remote/volcanic peaks.

...California... Days 2.5-3...

A potent closed 500mb low west of CA will emanate healthy 500mb PVA
over the Golden State as early as Sunday afternoon with diffluent
flow at the nose of a strengthening 500mb jet streak. Increasing 850-300mb moisture ahead of the trough steadily increases over northern CA
with periods of mountain snow unfolding in the Siskiyou/Shasta. The
500mb low by Sunday night is a robust one, highlighted by 500mb
heights per ECMWF that are below the 1st climatological percentile.
Ahead of the upper low, a 500-750 kg/m/s IVT will direct
subtropical East Pacific moisture northward into the Sierra Nevada
by early Monday morning with snow levels down to 5,000ft. Sunday
night into early Monday morning marks the beginning of a multi-day
barrage of heavy mountain snow throughout much of the Golden State
with heavy snow eventually starting to accumulate during the day
Monday as far south as the Transverse and Peninsula Ranges down to
5,000ft. See WPC's extended range discussion for more information,
but it is worth noting WPC's WSSI-P shows moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for Major impacts in the central and southern Sierra
Nevada on Presidents' Day that then jump to >70% for all of the
Sierra Nevada above 6,000ft by Tuesday. Residents and those
traveling through passes in California next week should monitor
the forecast closely in the coming days.

...Central Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic... Day 3...

...High confidence in a moisture-latent storm system, low
confidence in precipitation-type from the Appalachians to the I-95 corridor...

A sharp 500mb trough tracking through the Lower MS Valley early
Sunday morning will tap into ample Gulf moisture and direct it
northeast into the southern and central Appalachians. In addition,
a strong >140kt jet streak southeast of the MA Capes is placing its
diffluent right-entrance region over the Mid-Atlantic, providing
excellent upper-level divergence aloft. Guidance is in good
agreement on a rather strong surface low (sub 1000mb low) tracking
across northern MS/AL that, according to the ECMWF, is highly
anomalous, with the aforementioned pressure being below the 1st
climatological percentile. The integrated vapor transport (IVT)
over the Southeast tops 750 kg/m/s, exceeding the 97.5
climatological percentile, and results in moderate-to-heavy
precipitation moving into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday morning and
through Sunday evening.

While there is no shortage of moisture at this system's disposal,
the cold airmass in advance of the storm is quite marginal. Despite
the presence of high pressure over New England, the temperature
regime associated with this high pressure is not particularly cold
at all. Using a combination of GEFS/EPS percentiles, 10th
percentile temperatures in northern MD are 32-34F, with 50th
percentile values in the mid 30s. Meanwhile, dew points are likely
to range between the upper 20s and low 30s. The resulting wet-bulb
temperatures at the surface tend to hover around or slightly above
freezing in central Appalachians, northern VA, northern MD, and the
DelMarVa Peninsula. With temperatures in the surface-850mb layer
being isothermal along the 0C isotherm to even 1-2C above freezing,
the potential for snowfall will be heavily dependent upon
elevation and dynamic cooling via strong vertical velocities and
heavy precipitation rates. This system is very much more of a
March-like storm system, where mesoscale banding and elevation are
the primary methods for which accumulating snow would occur.

WPC probabilities are not overly impressed at this time with <30%
chances for over 1" of snowfall in the central Appalachians and
northern Mid-Atlantic. Given the lack of a thermally-supportive
boundary layer via marginal wet-bulb temperatures, it will prove
difficult to support a widespread snow event. However, as the event
encroaches upon the hi-res CAMs guidance window, confidence in
whether a narrow swath of measurable snow from the central
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor will come into
better focus. For now, residents in the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic should, at minimum, expect a dreary/wet Sunday with
the potential for some snow mixing in over elevated terrain.

The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than 10 percent.

Mullinax

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 140832
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...Cascades... Days 1 & 3...

A broad upper-level troughing pattern off the Pacific NW coast
will continue to supply lingering low-mid level moisture that
allows for light snow through this morning. Snow levels will drop
to as low as 2000-3000ft today and into Saturday evening, bringing
snow to many of the passes over the WA Cascades. Following a lull
in snowfall Saturday night and into Sunday, another surge of
moisture will be supplied by a strengthening 500mb closed-low west
of British Columbia. Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb PVA
will be paired with an influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture to
produce periods of snow. Snow levels will plummet to as low as
800ft around the WA Cascades, while 2000 ft snow levels in the OR
Cascades will be more common. While these snow levels are getting
quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will
remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft
72-hour WPC probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass.
Given the long duration but lack of heavy hourly rates, WSSI-P
shows the chances for Minor Impacts are generally on the low side
(20-40%) with Monday having the best chances for some slick travel
conditions at pass level.

...California... Days 2-3...

...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the
California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into next week...

A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct
copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden
State" starting Sunday. The first upper low west of California will
kickoff this multi-day heavy snow event on Sunday with snow falling
in the higher terrain of the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon
Mountains. By Sunday night the upper low approaches, causing
heights to fall over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct
subtropical moisture at the state. Monday marks the beginning of
heavy snowfall along the Sierra Nevada with snow levels will
generally ranging from 4500ft to 6000ft from north to south
initially, then fall below 3000ft across northern CA as the other
potent Pacific trough approaches from the northwest. In both cases,
the state will be placed ahead of a pair of 500mb jet streaks that
will generate excellent upper-level divergence aloft, along with a
barrage of Pacific moisture and strong topographically-enhanced
snowfall rates. Heavy snowfall is expected as far south as the
Transverse Ranges above 6,000ft with WPC probabilities showing
moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals >8" in the peaks of
the San Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains.

California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will
come down fast and furious on Monday and continue into Tuesday.
Through the end of this discussion's timeframe (12Z Tues), multiple
feet of snow will have fallen above 6,000ft along the Sierra
Nevada. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >24" of
snow having fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Tuesday and more snow
still to come. The WSSI-P depicts a highly impactful snow event
along the Sierra Nevada with high chances (>70%) for Major Impacts
above 6,00ft, including the I-80 pass. In fact, for the higher
elevations above 8,000ft, the WSSI-P shows moderate chances (>50%)
for Extreme Impacts, suggesting the potential for significant
impacts to infrastructure. Travel will be dangerous to impossible
in the Sierra Nevada into Tuesday. Note that there are also high
chances (>70%) for Minor Impacts for I-5 around Mount Shasta,
signifying potential travel delays for I-5 in the more elevated
terrain of northern CA.

...Intermountain West... Days 1-3...

Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West
Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many
ranges across the Intermountain West this weekend and into early
next week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy
moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the
taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The
heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,
Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains whee 72-hour WPC probabilities
show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >8".
Localized amounts ranging between 12-24" are most likely to occur
along the remote reaches of the Lewis Range and peaks of the Blue
Mountains. Farther south, most accumulations in the Great Basin,
the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim, and CO/NM Rockies will be on the
lighter side. The peaks around Zion Nat'l Park on north along the
Wasatch sport moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals

4". Otherwise, most mountain ranges are likely to see 1-4" of

snowfall, with additional snowfall still to come on Tuesday.

...Northeast... Day 2...

The last 24 hours have seen some model guidance (GFS/ECMWF)
gradually creep north with the precipitation shield. This is due to
the approaching 500mb shortwave over western PA coming in
stronger, thus leading to healthier PVA aloft and more 250mb jet
streak enhancement aloft. While boundary layer temperatures along
I-95 south of Philadelphia remain quite marginal on Sunday,
elevated terrain north and west of the Delaware River are likely to
have better chances to see wet snow Sunday afternoon. As the upper
trough in the Carolinas spawns low pressure over the NC Outer
Banks Sunday evening, 850-700mb WAA to the north of the low will
support narrow banding of snow from eastern PA and northern NJ to
the NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southern New England. There
remains notable spread in model guidance in the position of this
band, but trends in not only the GFS/ECMWF guidance but also their
AI counterparts are showing additional support for a ribbon of
light snow. WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys on
east to Long Island, but probabilities for >2" of snowfall are
<20%, showing that most totals are minor and likely to range
between a coating-2". There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours.

The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Mullinax

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 150732
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026

...Cascades & Olympics... Days 2-3...

On Monday, a strengthening 500mb closed-low west of British
Columbia will slide south and just off the coast through Tuesday.
Sharp height falls and excellent 500mb PVA, combined with an
influx of 850-300mb mean-layer moisture and upslope enhancement,
will produce periods of snow over the Olympics and Cascades. Snow
levels will plummet to as low as 800ft around the WA Cascades and
Olympics, while 2000ft snow levels in the OR Cascades will be more
common. In fact, some of OR's coastal range could see snow to
elevations as low as 1,000ft. While these snow levels are getting
quite low, snowfall totals below 2,000ft in the WA/OR Cascades will
remain light. The heaviest snowfall will reside above 3,000ft
where 72-hour WPC probabilities remain in the moderate range
(40-60%) for additional snowfall totals >4" for both Snoqualmie
Pass and Stevens Pass. Given the long duration but lack of heavy
hourly rates, WSSI-P shows the chances for Minor Impacts are
generally on the low side (20-40%). Impacts are most likely to be a
combination of snow covered roads and reduced visibilities.

...California... Days 2-3...

...Multiple days of heavy and disruptive snowfall to affect the
California mountain ranges beginning Sunday and continuing into next week...

A pair of potent Pacific storm systems will work together to direct
copious amounts of moisture at the mountain ranges of the "Golden
State" beginning today and lasting into the middle of the upcoming
week. A broad positively-tilted upper level troughing pattern off
the Pacific NW coast will supply low-mid level moisture that
allows for light snow through tonight into the higher terrain of
the Siskiyou, Shasta, and Salmon Mountains. The heaviest snowfall
through Sunday are likely to reside above 5,000ft where 1-2 feet of
new snow accumulation are possible at the higher elevations
through Sunday night.

By Sunday night, the upper low approaches, causing mid-to-upper
level heights to fall over CA and the strengthening IVT to direct
subtropical moisture at the state. The state will be placed ahead
of a 500mb jet streak that will generate excellent upper- level
divergence aloft, along with a barrage of Pacific moisture and
strong topographically-enhanced snowfall rates. Monday marks the
beginning of heavy snowfall along the Sierra Nevada with snow
levels initially starting out around 6,000ft from north to south
initially, then falling to as low as 3,000ft by Monday night.
Farther north, snow level will dip below 3,000ft across northern CA
as the other potent Pacific trough approaches from the northwest.
Snowfall rates between 1-2"/hr will be common with some instances
of >3"/hr snowfall rates in the central and southern Sierra
Nevada. Heavy snow is also expected in the Transverse Ranges above 6,000ft.

By Tuesday, another round of heavy snow is expected across just
about all of the CA mountain ranges as a second, strong upper
level low dives south along the West Coast, enhancing onshore flow
and supplying additional moisture on the southern and eastern
flanks of the upper low. Snow levels will fall to around 1,000 ft
in far northern California (including the northern coastal range),
around 2,500ft in the Sierra Nevada, and just below 5,000 ft into
the Transverse Ranges with snow continuing to fall across the
state's mountain ranges into Wednesday.

California's mountain ranges welcome the snow, although it will
come down fast and furious both Monday and Tuesday. Through the
end of this discussion's timeframe (12Z Wed), multiple feet of
snow will have fallen above 5,000ft along the Sierra Nevada. WPC
probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >30" of snow having
fallen along the I-80 pass by 12Z Wednesday and more snow still to
come. The WSSI shows a large swath of Extreme Impacts (Substantial
disruptions to daily life; extremely dangerous travel or impossible
driving conditions, extensive closures) for elevations generally
above 6,000ft, although some Extreme impacts as low as 5,000ft are
possible. Major to locally Extreme impacts are showing up in the
peaks of the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountains, with mostly Moderate-to-Major Impacts (increasingly more disruptive to travel
jumping from Moderate to Major). Note that there are also Minor to
locally Moderate Impacts along I-5 around Mount Shasta, signifying
potential travel delays for I-5 in the more elevated terrain of northern CA.

...Intermountain West... Days 1-3...

Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West
Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many
ranges across the Intermountain West today and into the upcoming
week. With a lack of a frigid airmass ahead of this healthy
moisture source, snow will largely be confined to many of the
taller mountain peaks that sorely need beneficial snowpack. The
heaviest snowfall will reside in the Bitterroots, the Lewis Range,
Sawtooth, and the Blue Mountains where Farther south, most
accumulations in the Great Basin, the Wasatch, Uinta, Mogollon Rim,
and CO/NM Rockies will be on the lighter side. The peaks around
Zion Nat'l Park on north along the Wasatch sport moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >4". Otherwise, most mountain
ranges are likely to see 1-4" of snowfall through Monday.

On Tuesday, the highly anomalous upper-low off the Pacific NW coast
will help to usher the initial upper low over southern CA east into
the Intermountain West, causing widespread height falls and a
larger footprint of Pacific moisture to track through the Rockies.
Snow levels will lower to the valley floors in western Mt and
northern ID, with some light snow possible even in the Salt Lake
City area. Still, the lack of a frigid airmass at the surface will
keep the bulk of the heavy snow in the mountains with ranges such
as the Wasatch, Bear River, Tetons, Uinta, and Wind River seeing
locally heavy snowfall along their peaks. Many of the CO ROckies
will also receive snowfall, but the heavier amounts >8" will be
confined to elevations above 9,000ft.

72-hour WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall
totals >8" for most of the Intermountain West's ranges, but the
locally heavier total's (>12") are most likely to occur in the
peaks of the Lewis Range, the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, Blue, Bear
River, Wasatch, and Uinta.

...Upper Midwest & Great Lakes... Day 3...

By 12Z Tuesday, the remnant yet vigorous trough that was originally
over southern CA late Monday will race across the Rockies and
project excellent 500mb PVA over the northern High Plains. The
ECMWF SATs shows a roaring 150kt 200mb jet streak (wind speeds
topping the 99.5 climatological percentile) over the Southwest will
place its divergent left-exit region over the Great Plains. With
the aid of lee-side downsloping and low-level WAA across the
Plains, an exceptionally deep surface low will form over southern
MT that reaches as low as 980mb Tuesday morning, or MSLP values
that are below the 1st climatological percentile. As WAA ahead of
the warm front reaches across the Upper Midwest, strong isentropic
ascent will ensue as the warm/moist air runs into a colder/drier
air-mass over northern ND and northern MN. Precipitation initially
starting as rain Tuesday afternoon will changeover to snow over
northeast MT, northern ND, and as far east as the MN Arrowhead
Tuesday night. Meanwhile, from northern MN and northern WI to the
northern tier of Michigan's Mitten, the overrunning setup would
favor a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain Tuesday night and
into Wednesday morning. WPC probabilities show low chances (10-30%)
for pockets of over one-tenth of an inch of ice accretion in parts
of northern WI and MI.

There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the storm track, as
well as when the transition to snow would occur. Snow beneath the
strengthening TROWAL over northeast MT and northern ND would
perhaps not only support heavy snow, but the impressive strength of
the cyclone itself would foster blowing snow on its northern and
western flanks.In terms of snowfall, the MN Arrowhead sports low-
to-moderate chances (30-50%) for >4" of snowfall through 12Z Wed.
Most of far northeast MT, northern ND, and northern MN have
moderate chances (40-60%) for >2" of snowfall, but this is an area
where any minor change in duration or placement in the deformation
axis could result in notable changes to the snowfall forecast.
Regardless, the pressure gradient will be tight enough to where all
of these areas have moderate chances (40-60%) for Minor Impacts
(per WSSI-P) due to some combination of snowfall amounts of blowing
snow through early Wednesday morning.

...Northeast... Day 1...

The airmass in the northern Mid-Atlantic and latest guidance
continues to favor areas farther north from southeast PA across
the Delaware River and into NJ and as far east as Long Island for
light snowfall. WPC probabilities show low-to moderate chances
(30-50%) for snowfall totals >1" from the Delaware and Lehigh
Valleys on east to Long Island, but probabilities for >2" of
snowfall are <30%, indicating that most totals are minor and
likely to range between a coating-2" from southeast PA (with
elevation) on east through northern NJ and across the NYC metro.
Snow should peak in intensity Sunday night and conclude by Monday morning.

Mullinax
$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 200912
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

...West Coast... Days 2/3...

Cold core low shifts south from the Gulf of Alaska today, stalling
well off the WA/OR coast Saturday into next week. Pacific moisture
(not too anomalous with PW below 1") streams inland over the
entirety of the Pacific Northwest Friday night/Saturday then again
Sunday through at least Monday. Snow levels rise to 3000 to 4000ft
Saturday morning, then 5000 to 6000ft (4000ft in Washington)
Sunday. Both Days 2 and 3 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% for the
Cascades and Shasta/Siskiyou. Most of the heavy snow will occur
above the major mountain passes.

...Southern Rockies... Day 1...

Trough axis pushing into southwest Utah this morning shifts across
the southern Rockies today and Kansas this evening. Pacific
moisture streaming ahead of this trough will bring welcome mountain
snow to western slopes of CO ranges today with the San Juans and
Elk mtns most impacted. Day 1 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% there
and 40-70% in the Park Range, Sangre de Cristos, and other western CO ranges.

...Upper Midwest... Days 1-2...

Mid-level low over eastern IA will shift across southern MI today
as a separate low over the Boundary Waters of MN shifting
northwest. Heavy snow bands over central/eastern IA and western WI
will continue to pivot north to south up over the U.P. where lake
enhanced snow lingers through tonight. Day 1 (after 12Z) snow
probs for >8" are 40-70% for the Keweenaw Peninsula through the Huron Mtns.

...Northeast... Day 1...

Mid-level low shifting over lower Michigan today will track across
NY and southern New England tonight. Surface low development occurs
downstream this evening, crossing the 70/40 Benchmark this evening.
Warm air advection precip pushing into central PA will continue to
lift over NY and New England through this evening.

Warm nose progression pushes into Mass today, but with wintry mix
south from there and heavy snow north. Day 1 snow probs for >8" are
40-80% for the Adirondacks, Greens, and southern NH. Day 1 ice
probs for >0.1" are 40-60% for the Catskills, Mohawk Valley,
Litchfield Hills into the Berkshires with some sleet along the
northern extent of this freezing rain zone.

...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Day 3...

*** Nor'easter develops off Mid-Atlantic Coast late Sunday with
impacts in the Northeast through Monday ***

Complex phasing is expected to result in coastal low development
off the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday with rapid intensification
as it shifts northeast Sunday night/Monday. Guidance is somewhat
coming into consensus with a surface low track east of where the
GFS and west of where the EC have been. The preferred track remains
with the EC-AIFS which the 00Z run did nudge south a bit for Sunday
night. The extent of the precip shield will be critical to heavy
snow banding on the NW/W side of the low. Non-uniform precip shield
depiction from guidance such as the EC is likely given the complex
interaction of mid-level and low level low centers. The Day 3 snow
probs for >6" are 40-60% for central MD through southeast PA,
southern NJ and much of the Delmarva Peninsula. The rapid low
development and approach of rather strong surface high pressure
to Ontario will lead to a sprawling wind field over the eastern
U.S. which will enhance snow impacts under heavy TROWAL bands.
Please stay tuned for further details.

The greater confidence is for upslope snow on the central
Appalachians in NW flow on the back side of the system Sunday
night. Great Lakes moisture encounters the topographical lift with
Day 3 snow probs for >6" 40-80% above about 1500ft to the Allegheny
Front in WV and far western MD.

Jackson

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 240800
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026

...Northern and Central Rockies... Days 1-2...

Positively tilted trough off the WA/OR coast spins off a cutoff low
halfway to Hawaii tonight. South of the trough axis is an
atmospheric river flowing into northern CA and OR. Snow levels over
the OR Cascades exceed 7000ft, which is not really impactful.
However, this ample moisture overspreads central ID/western MY
where snow levels are 5000-6000ft and over western WY where snow
levels rise from 6000 to 7000ft which is impactful. Day 1 snow
probs for >8" across this terrain is over 50% and is 50-80% for

24" over the Tetons and Wind Rivers.

The snow focus shifts south down the Rockies into northern CO
Wednesday, but it's transient in a powerful westerly jet and
ridging off the coast (but east of the cutoff low) redirects
Pacific moisture to keep it offshore, cutting drastically on the
precip rates (which is unfortunate for CO and their snow drought).
Day 2 snow probs for >8" are 30-50% for the Wind Rivers/Tetons, and
40-70% in the Park Range, western slopes of the Front Range, and
down through ranges in central CO. Precip cuts off entirely over CO
Wednesday night.

...Washington Cascades... Days 2/3...

Ridging offshore from the low halfway to Hawaii allows the next
wave to shift south into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday night. Broad
cyclonic flow brings north Pacific moisture into WA Wednesday night
through THursday night. Snow levels around 2500ft allow moderate
snowfall at pass level. Day 2/2 snow probs for >6" are both 30-60%
in the northern WA Cascades.

...Great Lakes and Northeast... Days 1/2...

An Alberta Clipper will shift ESE from northern MN through the U.P.
of MI today, the L.P. tonight, before crossing the Northeast
Wednesday. Warm air advection ahead of the surface low will be
into an Arctic airmass with plenty of DGZ available for snow
crystal growth. Moderate to heavy snow rates of 1-2"/hr from Lake
Michigan enhancement can be expected in the east-central U.P.
where Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 50-70%. Brief LES trails the
clipper tonight off Lake Superior, then spreading across the Great
Lakes Wednesday. Day 1.5 snow probs for >6" are 30-50% in the
Keweenaw Peninsula and eastern U.P. north shore, around 80% in the
Tug Hill, and 30-60% off Lake Erie across the hills in southwest
NY state. Elsewhere in the Northeast, expect 1-2" of synoptic snow.

...Northern Plains through Midwest and Mid-Atlantic... Days 2/3...

The next clipper crosses the northern Plains Wednesday, pushing
across the Midwest Wednesday night, and the northern Mid-Atlantic.
The GFS still remains the farthest north/strongest physical
deterministic guidance with this clipper, though the 00Z EC-AIFS is
in somewhat agreement with the GFS Day 3 over the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Overall the trend has been south and
less wintry. As of now the only snow probs >4" with this clipper
are over the Northeast where 00Z guidance is generally less keen on
having any precip.

Only light icing potential is present with either of the two clippers.

Jackson

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 250733
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026

...Great Lakes to New England... Day 1...

A clipper low shifts from Ontario to Quebec today before weakening
tonight. Post-frontal lake effect snow (LES) will continue in WNWly
flow from Lake Superior into this evening while banding off Lake
Ontario into the Tug Hill develops this afternoon and persists
through tonight. Day 1 WPC snow probabilities for >4" are 40-60% in
the north shore of the eastern U.P. and in the Tug Hill.

Warm air advection ahead of the low will continue to provide
moisture for the cold front to lift and bring light to moderate
snow to higher elevations. Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 30-60% in the
Greens, Whites, and along the central Maine coast.

The next clipper on Thursday continues a south trend, with
consensuskeeping snow away from areas impacted by this past
weekend blizzard.

...North-Central Rockies... Day 1...

Last portion of an atmospheric river shifts inland across the Great
Basin and over the WY/northern CO Rockies today before tapering off
tonight as ridging off the West Coast cuts off the Pacific
moisture influx. The declining moisture feed allows mainly moderate
precip rates with snow levels around 7000ft in WY and around
9000ft in northern CO that drops to around 7000ft by this evening
before precip tapers off. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 40-80% in this terrain.

...Cascades across the Northern Rockies onto the Northern Plains... Days 1-3...

Ridging off the West Coast today draws troughing from a low over
the Gulf of Alaska south into northwest WA today through Friday
morning where snow levels linger around 2000ft. Surface high
pressure shifts into northern Alberta late Friday and directs
frontal convergence and banded snow over eastern MT and the
Dakotas Friday night. Days 1-2 PWPF for >6" are 50-80% both days
over the north WA Cascades. Then the Day 3 PWPF for >6" is 50-80%
in Glacier NP terrain and for >4" is 20-40% over eastern MT, though
there is potential on 4" in the banding extending through the
Dakotas, just not confidence on the placement of the band -
somewhere near the ND/SD border is a reasonable consensus now.

Little to no ice accumulation is forecast Days 1-3.

Jackson

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 251922
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 00Z Sun Mar 01 2026

...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1...

A clipper type low will track from Ontario to Quebec tonight
before weakening. This will trail a potent cold front in its wake,
and guidance has increased the potential for some convective snow
showers and snow squalls along this front as it crosses from
Upstate NY into New England by 12Z Thursday. Although snowfall
accumulations along this front are likely to be minimal, briefly
heavy snow rates and gusty winds within any snow squalls could
create dangerous travel due extremely restricted visibility and
snow covered roads.

Along this front, a secondary wave of low pressure is expected to
develop across the Tennessee Valley, with warm air advection
isentropically ascending the front to produce precipitation from
the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states, and maybe clipping
far southern New England. While the guidance has trended farther
south, there is still a threat for at least a period of light snow
across this area Thursday, but snowfall accumulations are expected
to be minimal as reflected by WPC probabilities for 1" less than
10% except in the higher terrain of West Virginia.


...Cascades across the Northern Rockies onto the Northern Plains...
Days 1-3...

A series of waves emanating from an increasingly sheared mid-level
low over the Gulf of Alaska will quickly flatten ridging over the
West Coast and direct fast northwesterly flow across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Rockies and the northern Plains through the end
of the week into the start of the weekend. While moisture
anomalies are modest at best, the fast flow interacting with
terrain and snow levels around 2000ft will support snow from the
northern WA Cascades to the high country of northwestern MT. WPC
probabilities for >6" remain high (>70%) through early Day 3 before
diminishing late.

A surface low and its attendant cold front will develop in the lee
of the Canadian Rockies before scooting south and eastward across
southern Canada through the period. In its wake, a strong surface
high will descend southward to along the U.S./Canada border and
enhance the frontal zone as it stalls across the northern Plains. A
strong gradient between higher mid/upper heights to the south and
lower heights to the north will support a strong 150 kt 250 mb jet
streak draped across northeast MT and the Dakotas. Strong forcing
for ascent underneath the right entrance region of this jet coupled
with intense frontogenesis will likely lead to banded snowfall.
WPC probabilities for snowfall >2" are moderate (40-70%) for
portions of northeast MT, with low probabilities (10-40%) for >4".
Farther east, probabilities for >2" are low (20-40%) for parts of
southwest ND and northwest SD, with probabilities of >4" at less than 10%.


Little to no ice accumulation is forecast Days 1-3.


Weiss/Miller


$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 260801
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026

...Cascades & Northern Rockies... Days 1-2...

Strong westerly upper flow across the Northwest overtop a stout
western U.S. ridge allows for persistent moisture flux into
favorable western upslope terrain of the WA Cascades and northern
Rockies until flow turns more northwesterly and drier by Saturday.
Snow levels are forecast to remain around 2000-3000ft across the
region before dropping below 2000ft across northwest MT on Saturday
as a strong cold front dives southward and increases precipitation
on Day 2. WPC probabilities for at least 8" of snow are 70-90%
above about 4000ft in the northern WA Cascades and the Lewis
Range/Glacier National Park region of northwest MT.

...Northern Plains... Days 2-3...

A surface low and its attendant cold front will develop in the lee
of the Canadian Rockies before scooting south and eastward across
southern Canada through the period. In its wake, a strong surface
high (nearing 1040 mb) will descend southward to along the
U.S./Canada border and enhance the frontal zone as it stalls across
the northern Plains. A strong gradient between higher mid/upper
heights to the south and lower heights to the north will support a
strong 150 kt 250 mb jet streak draped across northeast MT and the
Dakotas. Strong forcing for ascent underneath the right entrance
region of this jet coupled with intense 850-700mb frontogenesis,
per model cross-sections, will likely lead to WNW-ESE oriented
banded snowfall between Saturday morning in the northern High
Plains and potentially lingering Saturday evening into parts of
southern WI/northern IL. Additionally, a wide DGZ (SREF
probabilities >30% for at least 100 mb) will likely lead to above
climatology SLRs wherever forcing can squeeze out the limited
moisture available in the atmosphere. These potential snowbands
will likely be fairly narrow and therefore, not properly identified
or washed out within ensemble probabilistic guidance given the
large spread in the location of these bands. Still, WPC
probabilities for >4" are low (10-40%) for parts of
northern/eastern MT, southern ND and northern SD. Probabilities for

2" are much higher and have increased to 50-70% across southern

ND, northeast SD and southeast MN.

The probability of significant ice accumulation is less

Snell


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 270817
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026

...Northwest Montana... Day 1...

Continued strong westerly mid and upper level flow across the
Northwest will direct modest moisture into the upslope terrain of
the WA Cascades and northern Rockies today before flow turns more
northwesterly and drier by Saturday. Snow levels are forecast to
remain around 2000-3000ft across the region before dropping below
2000ft across northwest MT on Saturday as a strong cold front dives
southward and increases precipitation late tonight, while
precipitation coverage drops throughout today across the far
northern WA Cascades. WPC probabilities for at least 8" of snow
remain moderate (50-70%) above about 4000ft in the Lewis
Range/Glacier National Park region of northwest MT.

...Northern Plains... Days 1-2...

A cold front will dive out of Canada and sink rapidly southward
Friday, reaching the Central Plains by tonight. As this front
continues south, a modest 700mb trough will dive E/SE along the
front, pushing modest WAA atop the boundary and into the Northern
Plains beginning Friday evening in the High Plains of Montana and
then continuing E/SE through the Upper Midwest by Saturday evening.
This will result in modest 295K isentropic ascent into near-
normal PWs to support expanding precipitation. This precipitation
will likely manifest as a narrow channel with moderate to heavy
snow rates as a dynamic jet structure arcs overhead enhancing the
700-600mb fgen to provide lift directly into the deepening DGZ.
This should create a narrow band of snow translating along its long
axis, leading to a long duration of moderate snowfall rates from
eastern MT through southern WI before weakening as it ejects
eastward Saturday night.

There remains some latitudinal spread in guidance regarding the
location of this band, but CAMs and recent global guidance
highlight a maximum localized corridor of 4-8" is possible. This
WAA fgen scenario usually tends to favor more northern solutions,
but that is highly dependent on the tightening thermal gradient
and overall amplitude should the higher-end scenario occur. Recent
short-term HRRR trends are for a more amplified western U.S. ridge,
which is why the 06z HRRR (and even 06z NAM) trended north and
heavier with its snowfall axis. Given the spread and very narrow
snow band, ensemble probabilistic guidance remains quite low, but
the strong fgen collocated with SLRs around 20:1 support a high-
end snowband potential. WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%
chance) for at least 2 inches of snow from southwest ND to southern
WI, with locally higher amounts above 4 inches possible (10-30%),
highest across the Dakotas and southern Minnesota. Should guidance
come into better agreement regarding placement of this snowband,
expect these probabilities to increase.

...Central Plains into the Midwest... Day 3...

Broad ridging over the West is progged to become suppressed
somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave emerges from the Pacific and
races quickly over the top of this ridge. As this shortwave moves
into the Central Plains Sunday morning, it will move atop the low-
level baroclinic zone accompanying a surface cold front to produce
a wave of low pressure and accompanying increased ascent. Most of
this lift will be produced via isentropic upglide, especially along
the 290-295K surfaces, with the driving WAA pushing a warm nose
northward atop the cold dome to the north. While there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty into both northward latitudinal advance
of precipitation, as well as timing of the heaviest rates, there is
increasing confidence in a swath of mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain
spreading from the Central Plains into the Midwest late Sunday
into early Monday. Although adjustments in the forecast are likely,
current WPC probabilities indicate a 20-40% chance for at least 2
inches of snow from southern IA and northern MO to central/northern
IL, with light freezing rain possible just to the south of the
heaviest snowfall. Current freezing rain probabilities for
exceeding 0.1" are low (<10%) across northeast KS.

Snell
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 280725
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

...Northern High Plains, Great Lakes, & Northeast... Days 1-2...

A narrow but intense corridor of moderate to heavy snow will track
rapidly east-southeast from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes
today. The heaviest snow late this morning will center from
southeastern North Dakota-northeastern South Dakota into southern
Minnesota, where strong low-mid-level frontogenesis and favorable
upper jet forcing will likely support a brief period of rates
exceeding 1"/hr. While this will be a fast-moving system, the
thermal profile remains cold throughout the column, supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios and a fluffy snow that will accumulate
quickly. WPC probabilities indicate that additional accumulations
(after 12Z) of 2-4" are likely from southeastern North Dakota-
northeastern South Dakota through southern Minnesota into southern
Wisconsin today. Embedded within this axis is an area of 30 percent probabilities for amounts over 4" centered over southern Minnesota.

As the system moves across the Great Lakes on Sunday, forcing is
expected to weaken and the band is forecast to become disorganized,
with a diminishing threat for heavy accumulations downstream.

...Central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic... Days 2-3...

The synoptic setup will be driven by a southern stream shortwave
trough ejecting from the Pacific, suppressing a downstream ridge
centered over the Southwest on Saturday before tracking into the
Central Plains on Sunday. This upper-feature will be guided by
northern stream jet streak, steering the energy toward the Mid-
Atlantic while simultaneously pushing a surface cold front south
into the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Amplifying low level
winds will tap Gulf moisture, supporting deepening moisture and a
broadening precipitation shield developing well north of the
boundary. A northward-surging warm nose will favor a transition to
a wintry mix along the northern edge of the precipitation shield
from eastern Nebraska-Kansas through the mid Mississippi into the
Ohio valleys Sunday into early Monday, while a persistent surface
high-pressure wedge will support a similar mix of precipitation
types over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Monday
into early Tuesday.

For most of these areas, WPC probabilities for measurable ice
(0.01") max out in the 30-50 percent range. A notable exception
are the central Appalachians, where probabilities reach 70 percent
along the West Virginia Allegheny Mountains by early Tuesday, with
some 30 percent probabilities for accumulations over 0.10" there
as well. Probabilities suggest that snow accumulations will remain
an inch or less for most impacted areas. The latest run only shows parts
of northern Missouri and isolated parts of the West Virginia
mountains with probabilities greater than 50 percent for amounts
over an inch.

Pereira

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 010656
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...Central Plains to the Tennessee Valley...
Days 1-2...

Migrating shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies through the Central
Plains to Ohio Valley will lead to a period of mixed precipitation
from KS/NE, east into the Ohio Valley. Initial wave of precip will
form across the Central Plains with a degradation of the lower
boundary layer over time as a marginal warm-nose protrudes the
layer between 925-700mb leading to a band of snow on the northern
periphery of the SLP center with more of a light sleet/freezing
rain signature along and north of I-70 from Northeast KS through
MO. Freezing rain accretion of 0.01-0.05" will be most common
across this area with WPC probs of >0.01" running between 30-60%
over the aforementioned corridor, but well below 10% for >0.1"
meaning limited chances for more considerable impacts.

Further east into the Ohio Valley, western edge of the strong
surface ridge pressing Arctic air into the region will lead to a
touch better isentropic ascent pattern as the slowly maturing SLP
migrating east will allow for a better 850mb jet nosing up into
the very cold boundary layer present across the OHV with the
southern fringes of freezing to sub-freezing air located along the
KY/TN border. Fairly high probs (40-70%) for at least 0.01" are
located across the northern half of KY with the best chance for
~0.05-0.1" located north of I-64. Snowfall of 1-2" are relatively
low across portions of OH/IN with probs for >1" only between 10-30%
over the central and southern portions of each state.

...Mid-Atlantic to Northeast...
Day 2-3...

There has been very little deviation in the forecasted pattern
expected with the next disturbance to impact the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeastern CONUS. An amplifying mid- level trough ejecting out
of the Great Basin will track steadily eastward Monday night
through Tuesday, leading to a surface low formation that will
track along a wavering warm front/stationary front draped eastward
through the Mid-Atlantic. As this low moves east in conjunction
with its parent trough, downstream height rises will occur through
intensifying WAA, with the resulting overrunning/upglide leading to
an expansion of precipitation from the Mid-Atlantic/Central
Appalachians into the Northeast/New England, especially as PWs
surge to above the 90th climatological percentile according to
NAEFS. With Canadian high pressure quickly retreating to the E/NE
ahead of this system, the warm nose accompanying the WAA will be
unobstructed, and this will likely result in a rapid transition
from snow at precip onset, to a mix of sleet/freezing rain, and
eventually rain, even as far north as southern New England. Before
that transition, some impactful winter weather is likely through
briefly heavy snow (although accumulations should be modest) and
the icy sleet/freezing rain combination which will lead to some
satisfactory ice accumulations in the higher elevations of the
Central Appalachians and neighboring valleys where CAD signatures
remain prevalent through Tuesday morning. WPC probabilities for
snow indicate a low-end risk (20-50%) of at least 2 inches of snow
across the higher elevations of the Adirondak's, Green and White
Mountains of VT/NH. For ice, there is a moderate risk (40-80%
chance) of at least 0.1" from the Central Appalachians into the
Laurel Highlands of PA, with locally as much as 0.25" possible.

...Central Rockies to Pacific Northwest...
Days 2-3...

A potent shortwave ejecting out of the Pacific will translate
eastward into the Great Basin and then Four Corners states by
Tuesday morning. This shortwave trough is forecast to close off
across the Inter-Mountain west between UT/CO, helping to initiate
cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies as ascent becomes maximized
in the LFQ of a subtropical jet streak arcing towards the Central
Plains. As this low strengthens, increased moisture funneling
northward from the Gulf will track NW into CO/WY/UT as the
accompanying theta-e ridge rotates cyclonically around the low.
This will create significant snowfall accumulations, generally
above 7000 ft, across the Uintas, Tetons, Wind Rivers, and CO
Rockies, including the Park Range and northern Front Range. In
these areas, WPC probabilities of more than 4 inches of snow reach
50-80%, with locally up to 10 inches possible in isolated locations.

By D3, a second potent trough will enter the Pacific coast with
a solid mid-level moisture advection pattern into the Pacific
Northwest. This will allow for snowfall to occur across the
Northern Cascades with snow levels generally primed between
4000-4500ft AGL leading to mainly heavier snowfall totals above the
passes with the maxima focused >6500ft elevation. This will lead to
WPC probs of more than 60% for >4" focused within the higher
elevations of the Northern Cascades and Olympics.

Weiss/Kleebauer

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 020703
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...Ohio and Tennessee Valley's... Day 1...

Weak shortwave traversing through generally zonal flow from the
Central Plains to the Southern Appalachians will create a period of
modest ascent across the region. Current WV satellite and radar
composite shows the disturbance situated over the mid-Mississippi
Valley this evening moving due east with sights generally along the
central Ohio River Valley. Low-level baroclinicity along a cold
front stalled across the Lower Tennessee Valley will allow for
maintenance of surface low pressure in conjunction with the mid-
level shortwave, tracking eastward along the front allowing for an
enhancement of precipitation in the confines of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley's, respectively. Despite the weak nature of this
surface low, downstream warm and moist advection will intensify on
850mb winds surging out of the Gulf, transporting moisture and a
warm nose northward, with increasing isentropic upglide leading to
an expansion of precipitation from the Mississippi River to points
east with the northern periphery of the precip field delegated to
the expected winter p-types. The column will remain marginally
supportive of winter weather, however, thanks to the warm nose
protruding the lower confines of the boundary layer meaning the
swath of snow or freezing rain will be relatively narrow,
especially south-central IL through southern OH. Total snowfall is
expected to be minimal at less than 2". However, WPC probabilities
indicate a 50-90% chance of at least 0.01" of ice, with some
locally higher totals approaching 0.1" for southern Ohio around the
proximity of Cincinnati and points north away from the immediate
Ohio River basin as noted via lower probs (10-25%) for the 0.1" threshold.

...Mid-Atlantic to Northeast... Day 1-2...

Mid-level trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley will advance
downstream into the Ohio Valley with an attendant surface low
migrating east along a stalled frontal boundary located over the
Lower Tennessee Valley as of early this morning. As this low moves
east in conjunction with its parent trough, downstream height
rises will occur through intensifying WAA, with the resulting overrunning/upglide leading to an expansion of precipitation from
the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians into the Northeast/New
England, especially as PWs surge to above the 90th climatological
percentile according to NAEFS. With Canadian high pressure quickly
retreating to the E/NE ahead of this system, the warm nose
accompanying the WAA will be able to surge quickly northeast, and
this will likely result in a rapid transition from snow at precip
onset, to a mix of sleet/freezing rain, and eventually rain, even
as far north as southern New England. Before that transition, some
impactful winter weather is likely through briefly heavy snow
(although accumulations should be modest) and the icy
sleet/freezing rain combination which will lead to some impactful
ice accumulations in the higher elevations of the Central
Appalachians and neighboring valleys where CAD signatures remain
prevalent through Tuesday morning.

WPC probabilities for snow exceeding 2" each day exceed 30% only in
a few isolated areas, the higher Central Appalachians D1, the
Greens and Berkshires on D2, and coastal/Downeast Maine on D2-2.5.
Total snowfall may reach 4" in a few of these areas, mainly in
elevations above 4000ft MSL.

The icing is expected to be more impactful, especially in the
Central Appalachians, where the probability for at least 0.1" of
ice exceeds 50-90% in the higher elevations of the Alleghenies,
the Blue Ridge of VA, and into the Laurel Highlands of PA. Latest
probs for >= 0.25" have come up towards 30-50% within a narrow
corridor along the spine of the Central Appalachians of east-
central WV, mainly as you move south of the Canaan Valley along the
eastern Continental Divide. More widespread icing exceeding 0.01"
is expected from far NW NC through southern New England, including
the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. through New York City where
the Tuesday commutes could be impacted by light icing and mixed
precipitation. Highest probabilities for >0.01" of ice accretion
will be found generally northwest of the fall line, especially as
you west of the Blue Ridge and Susquehanna Valley in PA.

...Central Rockies... Days 1-2...

A potent closed low emerging from the Pacific has begun to push
ashore this evening over Northern California with an expectation
of continuing eastward across the Great Basin today, eventually
ejecting into the Central Rockies by Tuesday morning. Although
this feature is now progged to weaken as it translates eastward, it
will still maintain sufficient amplitude to drive robust height
falls/PVA into the Central Rockies, which when combined with a
modest (90-100kt) jet streak placed favorably into the Central
Plains, will result in lee cyclogenesis Monday evening. This low
will deepen at least marginally as it advects E/SE into Tuesday,
while downstream moisture from the Gulf gets wrapped cyclonically
into the system to create anomalous PWs as high as the 97th
climatological percentile. The combination of synoptic ascent with
upslope enhancement north/northwest of the surface low will create
areas of heavy snow, especially above 7000 ft in the Uintas,
Tetons, Wind Rivers, Laramie Range, and across much of the CO
Rockies including the Park and Front Ranges. In these areas, WPC
probabilities are high (50-80%) for at least 4" D1 in NW WY,
expanding to include the terrain of UT and CO on D2. Locally as
much as 10" of snow is possible in the higher terrain.

...Pacific Northwest... Day 2-3...

An amplifying shortwave trough currently positioned over the Gulf
of Alaska will gradually advect southeastward, coming onshore
Wednesday morning. As this shortwave moves onshore, it will produce
impressive height falls which will overlap with the RRQ of a
meridionally strengthening jet streak (downstream of the primary
trough axis) to drive pronounced deep layer lift into the
Northwestern CONUS. At the same time, confluent flow immediately
ahead of the mid-level trough will gradually back to be more SW,
pumping elevated IVT onshore to provide the moisture needed for
heavy precipitation. Global deterministic and their ensembles are
starting to converge on a relatively modest IVt advection regime
~250 kg/ms, aligning with the ECENS outputs that have been
consistent within this range for the past few days. This scenario
should result in periods of heavy snow, especially in the
Olympics, Cascades, and Northern Rockies, with snow levels falling
steadily from around 5000 ft to 4000 ft beneath the upper trough
and a corresponding cold front. WPC probabilities D3 are high

70%) for at least 4" of snow along the spine of the Cascades of

OR and WA, the highest terrain of the Olympics, and parts of
OR/ID/MT from the Blue Mountains through the Sawtooth Region and
into the far Northern Rockies near Glacier NP.

Weiss/Kleebauer
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 030719
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Days 1 & 3...

The general synoptic pattern is unchanged from the previous
forecast. Weak shortwave trajectory from the Mid Atlantic will
motion northeastward off the the coast of Southern New England
with moisture carried poleward in the process. 1041mb surface
ridge positioned off Cape Cod will lead to a shift in the low-level
flow by morning to a more easterly orientation with a nosing low-
level jet around 850mb allowing a warm air protrusion into the
boundary layer as we push through D1. Cold air will slowly retreat
northward with snow/ice across the Northeast changing to rain, even
as far north as Southern New England. Areas north of I-90 will hold
on to cold air the longest with snow/ice the primary p-types
through the event. Best ascent will be fixed to the southeast,
however, so totals for freezing rain and snow will be relatively
modest, at best leading to some minor to bordering moderate impacts
where ice accretion approaches 0.1" or greater. Low pressure will
eventually carry the system off the coast by early Wednesday
leading to an end of the impact from this disturbance.

Snow amounts will generally be light, especially in the Northern Mid-
Atlantic. From around I-90 northward, WPC probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow are low (10-40%) as most amounts should be
in the 1-3" range. Higher elevations of the Green and White
mountains show the highest chance for at least 4 inches of snow.
The freezing rain footprint will extend from the WV Panhandle into
the Allegheny front, northward along the I-81 corridor and as far
west as the I-79 corridor northward to about I-90 and eastward to
about I-95. Freezing rain accumulations will be highest where the
cold air holds on longest near the highest QPF, which is forecast
to be over the central Appalachians and highlands of west-central
PA. WPC probabilities for at least 0.10" icing are between 30-60% over west-central PA up towards the NY state line with lower probs <20%
for parts of the Catskills and Berkshires.

By D3, a potent mid-level shortwave will eject east-northeast out
of the Midwest, aiming sights at Upstate NY through New England by
the end of the period. A trailing axis of confluence over Atlantic
Canada with a strong 1038+ mb surface ridge migrating east out of
Central Canada will set the stage for a stout low-level CAD
signature within the valley's of New England leading to a
heightened threat for freezing rain as the boundary layer between
925-700mb will be too warm, promoting liquid hydrometeors. Shallow
but impressive CAD will lead to a transient light to moderate
freezing rain between 00-12z Friday with WPC probabilities for

0.1" already signaling 10-40% potential across the

Hudson/Champlain Valley's along the NY/VT border, as well as
through the southern Green mountains and neighboring Berkshires.

...Central Rockies... Day 1...

Current WV satellite and UA analysis shows a very distinct closed
upper reflection located over the southern reaches of the Tetons
with snowfall occurring over the Wasatch over into the WY ranges
and the northwestern portion of CO. This threat will carry through
the morning with snowfall likely to breach 4" across portions of
the Central Rockies including the Medicine Bow range located over
northern CO and southern WY. Probs continue to come in between
40-70% for those areas of additional snowfall >4" leading to totals
likely to push 10+" through the storms life cycle. System will
exit the second half of the forecast leading to an end to the
threat as we move into the evening hours.

...Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies... Days 2-3...

A deepening system in the Gulf of Alaska will move southeastward
through today, bringing a surge of moisture into the Pacific
Northwest ahead of a cold front. Moisture levels and IVT anomalies
will be modest, and snow levels will start around 5000-6000ft
before falling post- FROPA to around 4000ft Wednesday then to near
3000ft Thursday as precipitation becomes much lighter. Snow will
spread eastward to the Northern Rockies (northern ID to
northwestern MT) early Wednesday then to the Great Basin late
Wednesday into Thursday as the upper trough moves into southwestern
OR. Snow could be heavy at times near/above pass level as snow
levels fall across the Cascades tomorrow night. By the end of the
forecast period, the upper trough may deepen into a closed low over southwestern UT with snow spreading into the Uintas and Wasatch as
well as western WY ranges, continuing into the medium range.

WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are highest over
the WA/OR Cascades for D2, generally above 4000-5000ft. Plowable
snow (at least a couple inches) is likely (>80% chance) around
Snoqualmie Pass. To the east, WPC probabilities for at least 8
inches of snow are >50% above 5000-6000ft or so over the Blue
Mountains, central ID ranges, western MT, UT mountains, and
northern NV.

Fracasso/Kleebauer

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 040749
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026

...Northeast... Day 2...

A potent mid-level shortwave (currently over the Rockies) will
eject east-northeast out of the Midwest and weaken as it rides the
quasi-zonal flow into the Northeast. A trailing axis of confluence
over Atlantic Canada with a strong 1038+ mb surface ridge migrating
east out of Central Canada will set the stage for a mixed ptype
event as cold air remains entrenched over areas along and north of
I-90. Cold air damming, aided by a cold front from the Great Lakes
to Nova Scotia, will favor freezing rain as the precipitation mode
though some light snow is possible over New Hampshire into
southwestern Maine, which will be fully into the colder airmass.
Precipitation starting Thursday evening will continue through
Friday as the shortwave and associated weak area of surface low
pressure races eastward into the Atlantic. WPC probabilities for
at least 0.10 inch icing are moderate (40-70%) over the southern
Green Mountains and Berkshires as well as across southern New
Hampshire (Monadnocks) into the Worcester Hills. Probabilities for
at least 0.25 inch icing is highest (20-40%) over the southern
Greens and Berkshires. Lighter icing (>0.01") is probable for much
of the Adirondacks and Catskills across Vermont and New Hampshire
into northern CT/RI.

...Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Rockies... Days 1-3...

A mature system in the Gulf of Alaska weakening early this morning
will shunt a southern mid- level trough into the Pac NW today,
carrying a potent cold front ashore. A surge of modest moisture
and IVT, coupled with snow levels initially around 5000-6000ft,
will limit impacts. However, post- FROPA, snow levels will fall to
around 4000ft today then to near 3000ft Thursday as precipitation
becomes much lighter. Snow will spread eastward to the Northern
Rockies (northern ID to northwestern MT) early this morning then
to the Great Basin late this afternoon into Thursday as the upper
trough moves into southwestern OR. Snow could be heavy at times
near/above pass level as snow levels fall across the Cascades
today and then again tomorrow evening as the upper trough moves
through WA/OR. On Thursday, the trough will dig into Utah which
will enhance snowfall into the Uintas, WY ranges, and into the CO
Rockies, favoring upslope regions with ranges oriented
perpendicular to the northwesterly flow. Snow levels will continue
to fall across the region, initially around 7000ft in WY/CO late
Thursday but dropping to below 5000ft early Friday. This may
bring some lighter snow to areas east of the Front Range and High
Plains, including from eastern CO and southeast WY to western NE
and central SD.

WPC days 1-2 probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50%
over the WA/OR Cascades, generally above 4000-5000ft. Plowable snow
(at least a few inches) is likely (>95% chance) around Snoqualmie
Pass. To the east, WPC probabilities through day 3 for at least 8
inches of snow are >50% above 5000-6000ft or so over the Blue
Mountains, central ID ranges, western/southwestern MT, northern NV
ranges, Uintas/Wasatch, and into the Wind River, Laramie, Park
Range, and Medicine Bow ranges. Maximum snowfall amounts of 1 to 2
feet can be expected in the highest peaks of these mountain ranges.

...Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Day 3...

More uncertainty regarding QPF and ptype exists throughout
the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on day 3 (12z Fri.
to 12z Sat.) as this system ejects eastward. Although less likely
at the moment, should a stronger shortwave eject northeastward
across the Plains on Friday and spawn a deeper surface low along
the advancing cold front, a band of heavy snow is possible.
However, the GFS remains alone in this higher end scenario.
Current WPC probabilities for at least 2 inches of snow are low
(20-40%) from western NE to northern MN.

Snell/Fracasso

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 050857
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026

...Northeast... Days 1/2...

Shortwave low over IA early this morning will further weaken into a
trough as it shifts to the eastern Great Lakes today and over
central New England tonight. A 1040mb high over Quebec retains a
wedge of cold air over New England through the Hudson Valley. Warm
air advection ahead of the low overruns the cold setting up mixed
precip and some all snow well into the cold sector. Snow probs are
quite limited, generally around 20% for >2" over southern NH and
far southern Maine which depends on how far precip can shift into
the dry high. Otherwise, it's ice glaze potential from the
Catskills, Berkshires into the Litchfield Hills and over the
Worcester Hills where Day 1 probs for >0.25" are 20-60%. Plenty of
precip occurs with this system, so it will come down to surface
temperatures and efficiency of freezing rain with rate and wind
factoring in. As of now the potential for 0.5" ice is limited to
the Berkshires where the PWPF is around 10%.

...Cascades through the Rockies... Days 1-2...

A trough over Nevada this morning will dig down to AZ today and
promote lee-side sfc cyclogenesis over eastern CO tonight. In the
meantime, broad upper troughing over the northeast Pacific with low
pressure over central AK will direct a plume of Pacific moisture
across the NW on northwesterly flow.

Areas east of the trough axis will see moderate precip rates today with
lower snow levels around 4000ft over the UT/eastern ID ranges up
through western MT and western WY ranges. Onshore flow and snow
levels around 3500ft brings snow to the WA Cascades today. Day 1
PWPF >6" are 50-90% in southwest MT ranges and 40-80% from
northwest MT through the UT Ranges and up through the Bighorns in WY.

The central Rockies get the focus late tonight through Friday with
the lee-side low bringing some Pacific and west Gulf moisture back
over the CO Rockies. Day 2 PWPF for >6" are 40-80% over most of the
CO and southern WY Rockies which will be quite welcome. The snow
focus shifts to the Plains by late Friday night.

...Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Days 2/3...

A trough over Nevada this morning will dig down to AZ today,
promote lee-side sfc cyclogenesis over eastern CO tonight that
tracks over Iowa and Wisconsin Friday and northern Michigan early
Saturday. The strength of this low is the main point of uncertainty
with deeper solutions from the GFS and AiGFS (and now somewhat the
00Z CMC) develop a TROWAL band from western Nebraska through MN
while weaker solutions like the EC have only minor fgen banding on
the back side. WPC QPF favors decent fgen banding which would set
up some overrunning and a swath of wintry mix along with snow
banding. Day 2 PWPF for >4" are limited by the model variance with 20%
in western Neb and 5% in central SD. However, probs for >2" are 10%
or higher from western Neb through northern MN. Given the banding
potential and motion along banding orientation, some heavy snow is
possible in narrow swaths west of the low track.


Jackson


$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 060905
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026


...Rockies, Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Days 1-2...

Full-latitude trough with the axis approaching the Four Corners
early this morning will continue to promote lee-side cyclogenesis
from the southern High Plains up through western/central KS and
eastern Neb/western Iowa today. Pacific and western Gulf moisture
wrapping around the lee-side low will continue across the CO
Rockies which are under the trough today with snow levels dropping
to around 5000ft. Day 1 snow probs for >6" additional snow after
12Z are 40-90% across the CO Rockies and the higher ranges through
central WY.

Those low snow levels will allow snow accumulation on the central
High Plains this afternoon west of the low track. Decent TROWAL
development from the strengthening low will allow fgen bands of
snow to form, first over the Denver metro, then extending northeast
from there across western Neb up into SD today. 00Z HREF mean snow
rate reaches 1"/hr over the Palmer Divide this afternoon and over
the eastern edge of the Neb Panhandle this evening.
Filling/weakening of the low then brings down the banded snow
threat for eastern SD and southern MN overnight. However,
redevelopment as the low approaches Lake Superior brings about
renewed banded snow threats to the northern WI/MN border, far
northern WI, and the western U.P. late tonight into Saturday. Day 2
snow probs for >2" are limited to around the Porcupine Mtns into
the Keweenaw Peninsula.

Mixed precip is expected near the low track today with Day 1 PWPF
for >0.1" ice 20-40% over southwestern to central MN.


...Northeast...
Days 1/2...

Shortwave trough over lower Upstate NY early this morning shifts
off Cape Cod by midday with ongoing freezing rain NW of Boston
lingering this morning. WAA ahead of the low crossing northern MI
tonight brings light precip to northern New England late tonight
into Saturday. Residual cold surface air brings a freezing rain
threat to the White Mtns of NH through western/northern Maine. Day
1.5 PWPF for >0.1" is 40-70% through this region.


...WA Cascades...
Day 3...

Powerful shortwave trough rounding a southern AK low directs
elevated Pacific moisture through WA on Sunday. Snow levels rise on
the WA Cascades to around 5000ft Saturday night before dropping to
around 4000ft Sunday under height falls. Day 3 PWPF for >6" snow is
40-80% above Snoqualmie Pass level on the northern WA Cascades.


Jackson



$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 070853
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...Upper Midwest... Day 1...

Surface low center tracks northeast from WI early this morning
across northern MI through midday. Strung out comma head fgen
banding over southern MN lifts northeast across northern WI and the
western U.P. this morning. Right entrance jet dynamics aid lift and
allow snow rates around 0.5"/hr per 00Z HREF around 12Z in the
Bayfield area of WI and along the western U.P. shore/Porcupine
Mtns. Snow lifts northeast of the Keweenaw Peninsula by noon.

...New Hampshire and Maine... Day 1...

Warm air advection rain ahead of a trough is currently entering
western NY. This shifts to the White Mtns of NH and Maine later
this morning where subfreezing temps persist inland from the coast
as high pressure continues to retreat over Atlantic Canada. Day 1
PWPF for >0.1" are 20-30% in the interior terrain of Maine and the
White Mtns of NH.

...Washington to Northern Rockies... Days 2-3...

A trough shifts over the Gulf of Alaska today before digging south
down the BC coast through Monday. A tight baroclinic zone
accompanies this trough with a powerful onshore jet and enhanced
moisture that pushes into Washington early Sunday. Snow levels
around 6000ft in the moisture surge Sunday morning steadily
decrease through Sunday night, reaching around 500ft by 12Z
Monday. Will need to monitor precip likelihood for the Seattle
metro given Olympic shadowing in the westerly flow, but there is a
chance for snow down near sea level particularly (from a thermal
perspective) Monday night.

Otherwise it's terrain based snowfall late Sunday night through
most if not all of next week. This streams east across NW MT where
snow levels will be 1000ft or less starting Monday. Day 2 snow
probs for >6" are 50-90% for the WA Cascades and the Lewis Range in
Glacier NP. These probs expand down to Mt Hood for Day 3 and well
below pass level on the WA Cascades. The axis shifts south a bit
inland with Day 3 snow probs for >6" over the Bitterroots and
northern Absarokas in the 30-60% range.

Jackson

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

FOUS11 KWBC 080849
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026

...Pacific Northwest Through The Northern Rockies...

Days 1-3...

Deep mid-level low drifts southeast over the Gulf of Alaska today
through Monday with the trough south of it digging across
Washington with a strengthening zonal jet before stalling/lifting
north through midweek. Snow levels over the WA Cascades drop
through Monday morning from the current 6000ft to near sea level
Monday/Monday night. The first slug of moisture from this system is
currently pushing down the south end of Vancouver Island with
higher elevation 1"/hr snow rates over the north WA Cascades per
the 00Z HREF. Then renewed precip arrives this evening when snow
levels dip below 3000ft/Snoqualmie Pass level and reach 1000ft or
less by 12Z Mon. Onshore flow and precip persist pretty much
through the rest of this week in western WA. Will need to continue
to monitor Puget Sound convergence banding Monday night when snow
levels approach sea level for accumulating snow potential in the
greater Seattle metro. Otherwise, it's upslope based snow for the
WA Cascades with and inland axis shifting south down the MT Rockies
this afternoon through Monday with snow levels in the moderate
precip rates generally 4000-6000ft. Day 1 snow probs for >6" are
around 50% near Snoqualmie Pass and 50-80% in the higher NW MT
Ranges including the Lewis and Bitterroots. Day 2 snow probs for

8" are 60% near Snoqualmie Pass and 30-50% in the northern/Red

Lodge Absarokas. Day 3 snow probs for >8" are 85% near Snoqualmie
Pass and 30-60% in the Bighorns of northern WY.

The prolonged duration of moderate to heavy snow for the WA
Cascades at low snow levels through midweek will be quite remarkable.


...Northern Great Lakes...

Day 3...

A reinforcing trough rounding the Gulf of Alaska low today digs
across WA late Monday where it begins to draw the cutoff low
currently off the northern Baja Peninsula toward Texas. The sheared
southern stream remnant trough and the northern stream trough from
WA approach each other Tuesday night over the south-central Plains,
promoting strong inverted troughing downstream across the Midwest.
North of this trough axis will be overrunning precip with a
transition from a wintry mix to snow. These defined ptype changes
will need to be closely monitored as accumulating ice and snow are
likely. Day 3 snow probs for >4" are 40% in the MN Arrowhead and
30% in the western coastal U.P. South of this swath is the risk for
freezing rain with probs for >0.1" currently 10-30% over the
eastern U.P. and northern L.P. Since the low will track along/near
the axis of the inverted trough, duration of wintry precip over the
northern Great Lakes will persist into/through Wednesday, so stay
tuned for updated location and magnitude forecasts for snow and ice.


Jackson


$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS11 KWBC 090910
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026

...Pacific Northwest Through The Northern Rockies...

Days 1-3...

Active winter weather continues across the WA Cascades and northern
Rockies through this weekend with particularly low snow levels
(especially for March) persisting into Wednesday.

A powerful zonal jet south of a Gulf of Alaska low will continue to
push across the WA/OR border as it continues to intensify to
150kt+ through tonight. A tight baroclinic zone has established
over central OR to southern MT with a moisture axis pushing across
western WA with showery activity through this evening under a
passing trough axis before tapering off under brief ridging
overnight. This is the coldest portion of this storm, but precip
should be pretty localized which may limit the snow coverage around
the greater Seattle metro tonight as snow levels dip below 500ft
MSL. Day 1 snow probs for >8" are over 50% above about 2000ft on
the WA Cascades and around 30% in the Bitterroots and just south
of Glacier NP.

Snow levels then rise to 1500ft on the Cascades Tuesday as
moisture content in the onshore flow increases along with snow
rates. Day 2 snow probs for >8" are over 50% above about 2500ft on
the WA Cascades and 40% for the Red Lodge/northern Absarokas and
higher Bighorns.

The next jet streak and onshore moisture surge increase is
Wednesday, again right into western WA. Snow levels quickly rise
above 3000ft Wednesday afternoon with high precip rates. Day 3 snow
probs for >12" are over 50% above 3500ft and around 60% in the
Bitterroots and Lewis Range. At least two more days of heavy
mountain snow, so stay tuned for further details on that forecast.

...Northern Plains through the Northern Great Lakes...

Days 2-3...

A southern stream cutoff low off Baja will eject east and open into
a trough before reaching TX Tuesday night. Considerable
sub-tropical Pacific moisture will stream across Mexico and be
joined by west Gulf moisture that surges up the Plains. Meanwhile a
northern stream trough crosses the northern Rockies Tuesday with
an inverted trough developing from the southern Plains to Chicago
Tuesday night with surface low development over southeast MI early
Wednesday. The surging moisture will wrap around the surface
trough/developing low, forming a comma head and connecting fgen
band over SD to southern MN Tuesday night. North of the low track
expect swaths of wintry mix before being all snow over far northern
WI and the U.P. Confidence is rising on a dry slot extending
through this wintry mix zone which complicates the QPF in this
case. There is decent storm track and QPF coverage from the 00Z
AIGFS/EC-AIFS and GFS on heavy banded snow over the U.P. and
sufficient QPF over the wintry mix zone for concerning freezing
rain accumulations. Day 2.5 snow probs for >6" are 40% in the Huron
Mtns and 30% along the central U.P. northern shore though these do
seem a bit suppressed. Ice probs have risen despite the risk for
dry slotting with the northeast L.P. having Day 2.5 probs for

0.25" peak around 40%. Interestingly the WSSI-P moderate impact

ice has a peak around 50% in a similar area. Overall this is a
fairly progressive storm, much more so than the prolonged ice storm
last March in this area.

...Northern New England...
Days 2/3...

Surface low pressure downstream of a northern stream trough
over the Upper Midwest tracks across New York on Wednesday before
crossing northern New England Wednesday night. A warm front
downstream of the low will extend ENE into New England, and then
lift through northern Maine with strong moisture advection driving
a warm nose over residual cold air from high pressure tracking
north of Maine Tuesday night. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain spreads generally north of NY/VT and across north-central
Maine where Day 3 ice probs for >0.1" are 40-60%. Thermals likely
remain cold enough for the northern tip of Maine where Day 3 snow
probs for >6" are 40-60% in northern Aroostook Co.

Jackson

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS11 KWBC 100908
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
508 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...Cascades Through The Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

...Washington Cascades Blizzard into Thursday...

Active winter weather continues across the WA Cascades and northern
Rockies through Friday night with particularly low snow levels
(especially for March) persisting through tonight.

A reinforcing shortwave trough rides a 150kt zonal jet positioned
south of a Gulf of Alaska low across the WA/OR border today. Low
snow levels (500ft or below) persist this morning over western WA
under the trough with snow levels rising to 1500ft this afternoon
as heights rise after the trough axis passage. Onshore flow
persists today with the next atmospheric river approaching tonight
with rates becoming moderate overnight with increasing winds. Day
1 PWPF for >8" is around 60% at Snoqualmie Pass and over 40% above
about 2000ft on the WA and northern OR Cascades as well as the Olympics.

A focused axis of 0.75 to 1" PW shifts across the western WA/OR
border Wednesday through Friday with a trough axis crossing early
Thursday. Powerful winds accompany the leadup to the trough axis
with 850mb winds of 40-60kt expected across the WA and northern OR
Cascades Wednesday night before easing into the 25kt range on
Thursday. Snow levels rise to 4000ft through Wednesday in the WAA
of the AR axis before dropping over WA into the 2000-3000ft range
late Wednesday night. Days 2/3 snow probs for >12" are quite
impressive, generally 50-80% above about 2500ft on Day 2 and 2000ft
on Day 3. Blizzard warnings are up for the WA Cascades through
Wednesday with the watch extending into Friday for this prolonged event.

This moisture axis extends inland over the northern Rockies through
this event. Snow levels rise there into the 4000-5000ft range
through Wednesday night before the moisture axis shifts south a bit
Thursday. Day 2 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% for the Bitterroots
through the Lewis Range before focusing on the Bitterroots,
Anaconda Range and southern Lewis Range on Day 3.

...Northern Plains through the Northern Great Lakes... Days 1-2..

Broad troughing over the northern tier of the CONUS focuses onto a
more defined northern stream trough over the northern Rockies today
which sweeps across the northern Plains tonight, the Upper Midwest
Wednesday, and the Great Lakes Wednesday night. A sinewy band of
moderate snow over north-central MN, northern WI, and the western
U.P. is from fgen on the leading edge of a developing inverted
trough developing downstream of the forming trough axis. An
additional factor in the developing storm is a cutoff low currently
over the Sea of Cortez that ejects to TX through tonight. This
reinforces the downstream inverted trough and promotes surface low
pressure development over IL tonight. Broad cyclonic flow develops
tonight with fgen snow banding over the north-central Plains
through central MN up through northern WI and the western U.P.
pivoting down to eastern Neb. Dry slotting is well defined now in
guidance south of the snow and north of the surface low. Mixed
precip will develop through this zone over central WI and
especially northern L.P. of MI. Day 1.5 snow probs for >4" are over
40% from northern WI through the north shore of the eastern U.P.
with embedded 60% probs for >8" in the Huron Mtns. Day 1.5 probs
for >0.25" are 40-60% in the northern U.P. east of I-75.

...Far Northeast... Days 2-3...

Potent northern stream shortwave lifting steadily eastward from the
Central Plains will cross into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thursday
while amplifying. Downstream of this trough amplification, a
meridionally arcing jet streak will favorably influence ascent
through the right entrance region to help strengthen a surface low
tracking from lower Michigan through Ontario, before tracking north
of Maine late Wednesday night. Downstream of this system, moisture
advection will intensify from the Gulf, driven by potent 850mb
WAA, which will additionally surge the surface warm front
northward. The combination of the deep layer ascent with the
resulting fgen (as a result of the WAA) will create heavy
precipitation along the international border with Canada and then
into northern Maine. Precipitation will likely start as snow across
northern Maine, but everywhere else, and then later in the period
across northern Maine, a mix of sleet and freezing rain, eventually
becoming rain, is expected, as the warm nose surges northward. Day
2 ice probs for >0.25" are 30-50% in interior north-central Maine
with Day 2 snow probs for >6" limited to northern Aroostook Co.

Some LES can be expected in the wake of this low off Lake Ontario
late Thursday.

...Northern Plains to Northern Great Lakes... Day 3...

The potent shortwave trough axis crossing northern WA early
Thursday really amplifies over the northern Plains Thursday before
rapidly developing into a major low pressure system over the Upper
Midwest Thursday night. This progressive system will be on the
leading edge of a 150kt WNWly jet. A strong wind field and heavy
snow bands will develop with this low. Day 3 snow probs for >6" are
30-60% over northeast ND and across northern WI, much of the U.P.,
and the North Shore of MN. This coming on the heels of the
low tonight into Wednesday will make for a notable late-season
impact to the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes.

Jackson

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

FOUS11 KWBC 110909
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
509 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026

...Cascades Through The Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

...Washington Cascades Blizzard into Thursday...

Active winter weather continues across the WA Cascades and northern
Rockies through Friday night with heavy precip and high winds
especially tonight.

A focused axis of 0.75 to 1" PW shifts across the western WA/OR
border through Friday night with a trough axis crossing tonight.
Powerful winds accompany the leadup to the trough axis with 850mb
winds of 40-60kt expected across the WA and northern OR Cascades
tonight before easing into the 25kt range on Thursday. Snow levels
currently in the 2000-3000ft range rise to around 5000ft this
afternoon in the WAA of the AR axis before dropping over WA into
the 2000-3000ft range late tonight as noted within the negative
temperature advection regime focused between 850-700mb. This will
be quite the snow event for the higher elevations of the WA
Cascades and the higher northern ID/northwestern MT ranges. Days
1-3 each have snow probs for >24" above 40% in the Cascades and 30%
in those ID/MT ranges (with only a little wobble in the axis south
on Day 2 before returning north for Day 3). Snow probs for >12" at
Snoqualmie Pass are 70% on Day 1, 95% on Day 2, and 70% again for
Day 3. Major impacts are expected across the WA Cascades, the
Bitterroots, western MT ranges and on Day 2 for northwestern WY ranges.

...Northern Great Lakes and Far Northeast... Day 1..

Northern stream trough over the Upper Midwest with southern stream
low over west Texas shift east to the Great Lakes/Southeast through
tonight. The surface low over northern IL rapidly develops as it
shifts across southern MI this morning and Quebec tonight. Banding
around the elongated 850mb low over WI/MI is continuing over the
U.P. with a separate area of light to moderate snow in central Neb.
This axis pivots more N-S through this morning before lifting into
Canada. Day 1 snow probs for >6" additional after 12Z are 50% in
the Huron Mtns and 20-40% in the eastern U.P. and far northern
Aroostook Co Maine.

Meanwhile WAA ahead of the low shifts across the eastern U.S. with
sufficient lingering cold over interior north- central Maine into
Coos Co NH where Day 1 ice probs for >0.1" are 40-80%. Ongoing ice
over the northern L.P. lingers this morning with 20% probs for an
additional 0.1" after 12Z in a swath of the northeastern part of the state.

...Northern Plains through Northern Great Lakes into Northeast... Days 2/3...

The potent shortwave trough axis crossing northern WA Wednesday
night on a 150kt potent WNWly jet really amplifies over the
northern Plains Thursday afternoon, producing a mature surface low
that crosses the northern Great Lakes Thursday night and pushes up
the St. Lawrence on Friday before reaching northern Maine Friday
night. A strong wind field and heavy snow bands will develop with
this low, though there remains some uncertainty with the track. The
EC-AIFS and CMC are farther south with a Day 2 QPF axis focused
just south of Duluth, while the GFS and NAM have the axis north
from Duluth. A compromised solution in between (WPC QPF actually
favors the south solution) is pretty close to the AIGEFS axis with
more magnitude. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are 40% over northern MN
with Day 2.5 probs 40-80% from the North Shore of MN, far northern
WI, and all of the U.P. and the northern L.P. This track then
continues east with Day 3 probs for >6" 40-60% over the Tug Hill
and southern Adirondacks. Unlike the previous system, this one is
much more simple with rain/snow and not a wintry mix. However, the
deep low will create quite a wind field with localized blizzard
conditions possible in spite of the North Woods' friction.


Jackson


$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)