ACUS02 KWNS 090529
SWODY2
SPC AC 090527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly
low-level flow across the western Gulf will support
warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave
trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor
destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing
large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms.

Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel
moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA,
particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough
spreads inland.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 120613
SWODY2
SPC AC 120612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.

...Texas and Oklahoma...

A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from
southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through
the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern
Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low
development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary
layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.
Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across
western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid
moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization
is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE
values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into central OK.

Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With
temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial
convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become
elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly
flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization. Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel
lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk
with convection over western TX into far southwest OK, though a
couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are surface-based.

Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast
extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.
A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the
nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse
rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 130559
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains
into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central
into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of a prominent
building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level
trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through
Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis.

Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue
building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern
California through much of the Four Corners states. Guidance
indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive
across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of
larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard.
However, there remains notable spread among the various model output
concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the
lower Mississippi Valley through this period.

Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to
support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but
this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern
Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast
to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...

It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation
will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central
U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for
appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf
boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F
surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma. At least
somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red
River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level
overcast. However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a
70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend
toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary
contributor to destabilization. Based on forecast soundings, most
unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated
near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates,
particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+
J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become
supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe hail, at least initially. Aided by favorable large-scale
forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger
convection to consolidate and organize across central toward
southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening. As this
occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of
the question. Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near
surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could
become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Sunday afternoon into
early evening across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern
Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple
of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.

...Discussion...
Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, it still
appears that a prominent blocking ridge centered over the
mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification
toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the
Aleutians in mid/upper levels through this period. As
this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs
near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level
trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is
forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast. It
appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the
base of this feature will support modest renewed surface
cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain
offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through
12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest.

Downstream, it appears that flow across the Rockies into the
western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments
within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.
In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden
eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi
Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing
into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Sunday night.

Spread persists within/among the various model output concerning
this troughing. In general, guidance suggests that an embedded
mid-level cyclonic circulation and associated surface cyclone will
tend to weaken by the time it progresses offshore by late Sunday
night. However, at least some guidance, including the NAM and Rapid
Refresh, appear to maintain a stronger mid-level perturbation across
the eastern Gulf Coast states through the day Sunday.

...Eastern Gulf States...
Questions remain concerning the extent to which thermodynamic
profiles may be conducive to continuing severe weather potential, in association with an initial line of convection which may be in the
process of spreading into Alabama and offshore of the southeastern
Louisiana coast at the outset of the period. Moist adiabatic or
more stable near surface lapse rates and weak CAPE, particularly
inland of coastal areas, still seem likely to limit the risk for
severe hail, damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes at least into
early afternoon, as activity progresses eastward.

Through mid to late afternoon, it is appearing increasingly probable
that a belt of 40-50+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in
the 850-700 mb layer will overspread the northern Florida/southern
Georgia vicinity. As this occurs, forecast soundings from the
latest Rapid Refresh and NAM suggest that this may be accompanied by
rapidly moistening and destabilizing thermodynamic profiles rooted
within the boundary layer, coincident with low-level hodographs
becoming rather large and clockwise curved, in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear. It appears that this environment may
contribute to a re-intensification of the convective line, with
embedded supercells and perhaps preceded by discrete supercell
development. As this activity tends to propagate eastward toward
the coast into early evening, it may be accompanied by damaging wind
gusts and a risk for tornadoes, including potential for a strong
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 150559
SWODY2
SPC AC 150557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas,
mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and
perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at
least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in
prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a
blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude
Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave
perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while
digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest
coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially
significant downstream trough inland across California and much of
the Great Basin by late Monday night.

As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop
farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming
centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern
Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate
that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting
northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great
Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric
cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin,
in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly
deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and
southern Atlantic Seaboard.

It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing
will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed
maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California
through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may
be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by
the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco
Bay vicinity during the day Monday.

...Southern California coast...
Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening,
along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may
gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support
deepening convective development while spreading inland across
coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los
Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning.
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,

thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm
development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind
profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb
level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse
Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may
become conducive to the development of supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Central Valley...
There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but
at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and
perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may
contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization
and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the
environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 160556
SWODY2
SPC AC 160554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone
will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to
continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas
to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley
through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of
amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S.
Pacific Coast.

Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the
southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio
Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing
pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night.
Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing
accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a
broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50
kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the
central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.

To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather
modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid
40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great
Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley,
beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much
of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer
modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through
this period and beyond.

...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable
of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal
areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still
appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,
and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to
reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in
later outlooks for this period.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears
that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region
late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest
forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe
hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps
not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be
monitored in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for
thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday
through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to
remain generally weak.

...Discussion...
Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning
short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic
regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi
Valley by Wednesday.

In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface
troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to
undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It
is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing
for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain
sufficient strength to support continuing convective development
capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower
Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. This seems likely to
remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little
risk for severe weather before diminishing.

Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada,
as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast.
Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that
boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak
destabilization supportive of convective development across the
eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming
during the day. It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that
some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning,
particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above
freezing. However, this probably will remain very sparse in
coverage. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally
sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger
near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south
of San Francisco Bay.

It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the
West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado
Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through
Wednesday night. However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer,
across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain
a pronounced westerly component through the period. Modest inland
moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer
appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi
Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of
low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic. It is possible that a weak
mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm
advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm
development Wednesday night. But, probabilities appear near or
below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the
present time.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is
possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and
Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of
thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf
Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose
at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but
generally sub-severe wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
through this period. This is likely to include a significant short
wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly
along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging
is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant
larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing
strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the
Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally
forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south
of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and
downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and
northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may
maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower
Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated
occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.

It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be
slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and
east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps
undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The
trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the
Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the
strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in
advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of
Friday into Friday evening.

...Gulf Coast States...
While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave
trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side
of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for
increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and
continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model
output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi,
Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become
rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings
indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist
layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic
profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence
of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts
appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes
overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 200630
SWODY2
SPC AC 200628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast
period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on
Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and
approaching northern stream trough.

A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North
Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to
sea by Sunday morning.

Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should
persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and
surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal
heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing
segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear
present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany
any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during
the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity
to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish
during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 210632
SWODY2
SPC AC 210631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.

... Discussion ...

A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio
Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast
during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New
England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal
waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong
large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough.
The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase
overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative
tilt and large-scale ascent increases further.

As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm
conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist
Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale
ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level
temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a
few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts
northward along the coast.

Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold
front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in
the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow
ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the
southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast
soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will
limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated
lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 240651
SWODY2
SPC AC 240649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the
central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific
Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday.
At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within
a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight
near the Red River.

Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue
moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs
across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by
Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep
convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector.
However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow
throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic
ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and
a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday
night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.

Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the
aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central
Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may
yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 250634
SWODY2
SPC AC 250632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to
weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during
the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across
central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an
elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a
residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly
southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the
front appears weak.

... Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast ...

Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps
as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid
50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest
instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach
1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a
notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and
east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but
much weaker capping inversion.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and
ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should
be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature
of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is
notably weaker than previous model runs -- continuing the trend
started yesterday.

Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support
organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective
elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager
low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more
robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 260651
SWODY2
SPC AC 260650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

... Discussion ...

A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.

... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...

Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.

Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.

... Florida Peninsula ...

South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 270658
SWODY2
SPC AC 270656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.

...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 280639
SWODY2
SPC AC 280638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

...DISCUSSION...
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on
Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a
quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central
Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into
the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from
southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 010635
SWODY2
SPC AC 010634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great
Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become
quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the
top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will
result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the
evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from
northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern
edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will
be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into
northern Missouri.

Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the
vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the
central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south
Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 020658
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 070606
SWODY2
SPC AC 070604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Carolinas into southeast VA...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and
across the Northeast by Sunday evening. Another weaker shortwave
impulse will move across the TN Valley during the afternoon before
emerging over VA/NC by early Monday. A belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern extent of
a warm sector across southeast VA into NC/SC. Modest surface
troughing is forecast across the Piedmont, but low-level convergence
is expected to remain weak. A surface front will not move much
through afternoon, but with time will begin to develop
south/southeast across the region during the evening.

Modest midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoint in the 60s will
foster weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorm development is
expected during the afternoon into evening ahead of the surface
boundary. While low-level flow will remain weak, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase rapidly, leading to around 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes (somewhat higher across southeast VA/far northeast
NC). A couple of organized cells could develop and pose a risk for
locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas
northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop
east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream
shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad
swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these
areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley
(80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A
dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central
TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast
near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through
Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will
develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the
afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in
place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The
strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS
Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at
least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward
extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg
will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main
concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities
across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection
during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the
broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and
greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer
southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a
broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of
southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If
enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of
convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.

Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line
of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning.
Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but
still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are
forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging
cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast
guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the
line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will
develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However,
confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends,
outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130510
SWODY2
SPC AC 130508

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints.

...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.

...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)