937
FXUS64 KMRX 091149
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
649 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs mainly in
the 50s and 60s in the Tennessee Valley through Thursday.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday, then
again late in the week with rain being the predominant
precipitation type.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A ridge is building into the Central and eastern U.S. today. At the
surface, high pressure is over the East Coast bringing southerly low
level flow to the region. Temperatures will be much warmer this week
with highs mainly in the 50s but Tuesday will be the warmest day
with highs in the 60s in the northern and central TN Valley and
highs in the lower 70s in the southern Valley. Dry weather will be
in place until the next system approaches Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a low near the Great Lakes brings a cold front through
the region. All rain is expected with this system and instability
will be too low for thunder.

Drying out for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Near normal temps
are expected through the weekend. Rain chances return for the
weekend as a low slowly moves through the Southeast. Precip type
will be all rain except for the possibility of some flakes in the
higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR with dry conditions through Tuesday morning. Varying mid to
high clouds. Ridging building in, along with SFC high pressure
shifting east, will flip the wind direction out of the S to SW
during the afternoon at CHA and TYS. Lighter winds tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 46 73 51 / 0 0 0 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 68 46 / 0 0 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 59 41 68 44 / 0 0 10 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

557
FXUS64 KMRX 092327
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Warmer temperatures this week with highs mainly in the 50s and
60s in the Tennessee Valley. Highs Tuesday will be around 15
degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday, then
again late in the week with rain being the predominant
precipitation type.

- Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and
Sunday. Currently looking like an advisory event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A flat upper ridge will be the main flow pattern for much of the
week with a series of jet streaks producing periods of rain. Next
weekends upper trough will of the strongest systems. Due to the
higher heights all week and predominant southern stream effecting
the region, temperatures will be on the mild side with highs mainly
in the 50s and 60s. Currently, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day
with highs 15+ degrees above normal.

For Tonight, surface ridging will remain across the region with
mostly clear sky until around daybreak. This will allow for good
radiational cooling.

For Tuesday, increasing isentropic lift as west to southwest
boundary layer jet increases. Increasing cloud cover is expected
with unseasonably mild temperatures. Highs will be 15+ degrees
above normal.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a frontal boundary will
move across the area supported by a northern stream jet across the
upper Ohio valley and southern stream jet over the lower Mississippi
valley. Broad upper divergence will support the fronto-genetic
forcing along this boundary. HREF/REFS and latest deterministic
models produce around 1/4 inch of QPF.

For Wednesday and much of Thursday, surface ridging and continued
dominance of southern stream will produce dry and mild conditions.

For late Thursday and Friday, models in disagreement on the
potential of showers with another wave that quickly move across the
lower Ohio/Tennessee valleys. Otherwise, continued mild conditions.

For this weekend, a much strong upper trough will move into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Increasing isentropic
lift as 850mb jet increases to 30-40 knots for Saturday and Saturday
night. Stronger jet forcing also possible as well. More significant
QPF is possible even though downsloping expected across the northern
and central Tennessee valley.

Also, the increase in the boundary layer jet will likely produce a
mountain wave high wind event for Saturday night and Sunday.

Drier conditions return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will continue through the night and
into the early morning hours. After sunrise, some mid to even
lower level clouds will move into the region, especially around
CHA. VFR was maintained, but MVFR can't be completely ruled out.
Also, southwesterly winds will strengthen through the day with
gusts of 20 kts possible at TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 73 51 63 / 0 0 70 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 69 46 57 / 0 0 80 30
Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 45 57 / 0 10 80 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 61 41 51 / 0 10 80 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

478
FXUS64 KMRX 100700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Warmer temperatures this week with highs mainly in the 50s and
60s in the Tennessee Valley. Highs Tuesday will be around 15
degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday, then
again late in the week with rain being the predominant
precipitation type.

- Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A mild SW low level flow will develop today as a low pressure system
crosses the Great Lakes, and a high pressure system is located near
FL. Channeling of the SW winds up the TN Valley could create some
gusty conditions this afternoon. The stronger warm advection today
will bring high temps well above normal, mainly in the 60s with some
low 70s around Chattanooga. The approach of a cold front will bring
increasing cloud through the day, with a chance of rain arriving
around midnight. Forcing isn't strong with the nearly zonal
mid/upper flow, and is mostly associated with isentropic lift
through the low levels. Thus, QPF will likely be light, around a
tenth to a quarter inch in most spots.

Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, but not dramatically
so as the midlevel pattern remains fairly flat and nearly zonal.
Mostly dry weather will continue through Friday, then the next
chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream shortwave
trough traverses the southern Conus. This could be a fairly dynamic
system with a strong southerly flow ahead of it, suggesting a
potential for mountain waves in the Saturday night time frame. If
the system develops as a closed low as depicted by the GFS, rain
chance will linger into Sunday.

Dry and mild conditions return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Calm this morning with relatively clear skies or high cloud cover.
Clouds build in and lower later in the day with possible MVFR at
TYS and TRI towards the latter part of the TAF and at CHA later
this morning. SWly gusts around 20KT possible at TYS this
afternoon. Rain from a cold front nears TRI towards the last
couple hours of the TAF period. PROB30 added, as well as depiction
of a chance of LLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 51 63 35 / 0 80 50 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 47 57 30 / 0 90 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 67 46 57 30 / 0 90 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 42 51 25 / 0 80 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

628
FXUS64 KMRX 102354
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

-Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday as a cold
front moves through

-Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and
Sunday.

-Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of rain
possible for many.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Currently a warm day even with the increasing clouds across the
region with most locations well above seasonal high temperatures by
mid day. Likely to be the warmest day of the calendar year so far
with some locations expected to see 70 degrees for the first time
this year. The temperature rise is being aided by the combination of
a low pressure system off to our northeast, and mid level ridging
building into our south helping to draw up warm air quickly out of
the southwest.

We'll see a change in the pattern a bit on Wednesday as a front
dives down out of the north being trailed behind the surface low
continuing to move off to our northeast. Rain chances move in
overnight, but with this being a more continental air mass it will
be fairly dry with less than a quarter inch of precipitation
expected for all locations outside of the mountains with their
orographically enhanced rainfall. Temperatures on Wednesday will
drop about 10+ degrees compared to today and yet another 5 or so
degrees by Thursday.

The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream
shortwave trough moves through the southern CONUS. This could be a
fairly dynamic system with a strong southerly flow ahead of it,
suggesting a potential for mountain waves in the Saturday night time
frame. Still some uncertainty with when the precipitation will begin
ahead of the main system, but increasing confidence for a rainy end
to the weekend with current QPF forecast calling for most locations
to get around 1 inch or more of rainfall, which is needed with
worsening drought conditions across much of the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

A period of MVFR ceilings with a low chance for IFR conditions is
likely overnight as a passing cold front brings light rainfall to
the region. Low end LLWS event of 35 to 40 knots at 2k feet. Most
hazardous conditions will likely be ending around 12-15z, with VFR
conditions returning thereafter, and a stout northerly wind taking
over post front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 63 35 56 / 90 70 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 57 30 51 / 100 50 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 57 30 51 / 90 40 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 52 25 46 / 90 20 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

887
FXUS64 KMRX 111159
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Rain tonight exits Wednesday morning as a cold front moves
through.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of
rain possible for many.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Radar has been showing precip over Middle and East TN for several
hours, falling from a midlevel cloud deck, but nothing appears to
have been reaching the ground, at least at the obs sites.
Measurable precip for our area will come with the showers that
are currently across KY, moving SE, associated with a surface cold
front. The precip will move through between 2 AM and 10 AM, with
most spots receiving around a tenth of an inch but a bit more in
the mountains due to orographically enhanced rainfall. Model
soundings show a little elevated instability, but not enough to
warrant a mention of TS. High temperatures today will drop about
10-15 degrees compared to today, and yet another 5 or so degrees
by Thursday as cold advection persists in a NW flow pattern.

The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday a a southern stream
shortwave trough moves through the southern CONUS. Models have been
shifting in their depictions of this system, with the ECMWF now
showing an open wave instead of the closed low it showed yesterday
evening, suggesting a less dynamic system and a weaker wind field
ahead of it. The mountain wave potential that had been mentioned in
previous discussions and the HWO is trending down with the ECMWF
solution, and the GFS doesn't show a particularly impressive
southerly flow. Still some uncertainty with when the precipitation
will begin ahead of the main system, but increasing confidence for a
rainy end to the weekend with current QPF forecast calling for most
locations to get around 1 inch or more of rainfall, which is needed
with worsening drought conditions across much of the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Showers this morning with isolated to scattered TYS and north and
heavier showers down south near CHA. MVFR to IFR CIG and VSBY due
to rain, will persist until mid to late morning. Clearing will
generally occur from north to south. Winds will eventually be out
of the north if they haven't changed already. Further clearing
this afternoon and evening with calm conditions expected
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 34 56 37 / 80 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 29 50 31 / 60 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 57 29 51 32 / 40 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 25 46 25 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

997
FXUS64 KMRX 112323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Dry through at least Friday.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of
rain possible for many.

- Dry and warmer to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

We start the period in northwest flow aloft between upper level
ridging to our west and a trough off to our east, and this will
persist over the next couple of days. We will be dry with
temperatures not too far off normal for this time of year through
Friday night.

The next chance of rain arrives by late on Saturday as a southern
stream shortwave trough moves across the southern CONUS. Models
have been struggling with the details of this system, both with
how strong the wave and its associated surface low will be and
exactly how far south it will track. Depending on these details,
there still is some potential for at least wind advisory level
mountain wave winds in the usual mountain and foothill areas
Saturday night into Sunday, but for now given the uncertainty will
keep the current low probability wording in the HWO. What is more
certain is that we will see rain moving in sometime late Saturday
or Saturday night and continuing Sunday. Thermal profiles suggest
all the precipitation will fall as rain. Latest NBM probability
data shows around a 40% to 70% chance across our area of rainfall
exceeding 1 inch by the time the rain ends Sunday night with the
higher probabilities south and west. The rainfall is needed at
this point given the worsening drought conditions across much of
the southeast.

Upper ridging is forecast to build in for the early part of next
week, with mainly dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR and dry conditions expected with light northerly winds
continuing. High cirrus likely to continue streaming overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 56 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 50 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 30 51 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

102
FXUS64 KMRX 121140
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Dry through at least Friday.

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of
rain possible for many.

- Dry and warmer to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A NW flow pattern will continue today, with 850 mb cold advection
continuing. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but a warmup
will be on tap for the rest of the week as advection turns neutral
to positive ahead of a building ridge. By Saturday, highs will be in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. One change of note to the NBM will be to
lower daytime dewpoints, which were much too high yesterday as the
model does not adequately account for boundary layer mixing and
drying.

The next chance of rain arrives by late on Saturday as the ridge
exits and a southern stream shortwave trough moves across the
southern CONUS. Models have been struggling with the details of this
system, both with how strong the wave and its associated surface low
will be and exactly how far south it will track. Strong mountain
winds cannot be ruled out, but the southern track of the low is not
conducive to an impactful mountain wave wind event. Confidence is
higher that we will see rain moving in sometime late Saturday or
Saturday evening, continuing through Sunday. Thermal profiles
suggest all the precipitation will fall as rain, with some weak
instability in southern sections suggesting a low chance of
thunderstorms on Sunday. Latest NBM probability data shows around
a 30% to 60% chance across our area of rainfall exceeding 1 inch
by the time the rain ends Sunday night, with the highest
probabilities south and west.

A large high pressure ridge will cross the Gulf and Southeast
next week, providing dry and mild conditions through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR and dry under high pressure can be expected through the TAF
period. SKC this morning at some sites may see mid to high clouds
later in the day. Nly to NEly light winds. Calm conditions for
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 52 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 24 50 27 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

457
FXUS64 KMRX 122348
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Widespread rain expected to end the weekend with over 1" of rain
possible for some.

- Dry and warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light winds out of the northwest and mostly clear skies continue
today helping to keep temperatures cool behind the front. Today will
likely have to coldest high temperatures of the week with a slight
warming ahead of our next incoming system. That system will be a
surface low moving through the southeastern United States and
eventually off the east coast into the Atlantic.

Confidence is increasing that we will see rain moving in sometime
Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, and continuing through
Sunday. Temperatures will remain warm enough that we'll see all
rainfall across the region, and cannot completely rule out a few
rumbles of thunder across southeast Tennessee with the steeper lapse
rates in the mid/upper levels. Unfortunately storm total QPF amounts
are the least confident part of the forecast with the scattered
nature of storms and some uncertainty on when precipitation will
come to an end on Sunday. At this point fairly high confidence we'll
see at least half an inch of rain, but probabilistic model data is
much more up in the air on who might see over 1 inch of rainfall.

A large high pressure ridge will cross the Gulf and Southeast next
week, providing dry and mild conditions through Thursday, with
temperature remaining well above freezing and highs in the 60/70's
for most Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds and
mid to high level clouds expected to be the primary weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 60 35 63 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 31 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 50 27 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

531
FXUS64 KMRX 131108
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday with 40 to
50% chance for an inch or more of rainfall.

- Dry and warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Not too many changes this morning with the weather forecast. Mild
weather through this weekend becoming warmer next week as our well
earned thaw continues. A weak upper low will undercut Tennessee over
the weekend, with rain likely to hold off on Saturday until light
rain chances begin sneaking in Saturday night thanks to the leading
isentropic lift ahead of the low. Dry low level air should hold rain
at bay, but anything that falls Saturday evening would be light. The
vast bulk of the rain will fall on Sunday, with a 50% chance for
over an inch of rain. Looking through the various deterministic
guidance has different swaths of an inch of rain, north vs south vs
western portions of the area. This is the best shot of rain through
the next 7 days, and with severe drought, it is very much needed.
Not seeing any significant mountain wind flow, though there may be
some breezy winds on the Plateau Saturday night into Sunday morning,
in spite of poor mixing.

Once the low moves out very early on Monday, a dry pattern sets up
with a warming airmass thanks to higher upper heights setting up
over the broader Mid South region. A couple of weak systems traverse
the Eastern US over the course of next week, but only a weak cyclone
late week next week carries low rain chances for us. Otherwise the
warming trend will bring widespread 60s and 70s Tuesday and after.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light northeasterly winds and limited cloud cover at or above
10,000 feet are expected through most of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 35 62 48 / 0 0 0 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 31 60 45 / 0 0 0 70
Oak Ridge, TN 55 32 59 45 / 0 0 0 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 28 57 41 / 0 0 0 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

495
FXUS64 KMRX 132319
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High
confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50%
chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the
northern plateau area.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper low will eject eastward from central Texas Saturday
afternoon and evening, moving to central Georgia by Sunday
evening. Ahead of this system, widespread rainfall is expected to
spread across the forecast area and the southern Appalachian
region in general, late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There
remains some uncertainty in the expected rainfall amounts but
there is pretty high confidence in seeing at least 0.50" across
much of the CWA, with even a 50-60 percent chance of seeing 1" of
rain or more primarily north of I-40 and west of I-75. This is
much needed given the ongoing drought conditions across the
region, and the introduction of some D3 drought categories in our
southern TN counties this week.

Additionally, a belt of stronger H85 winds will extend north into
the southern Appalachians Saturday night through roughly midday
Sunday. Cross sections show some downward motions in the lee of
the TN mountains, but there's no strong cross-mountain pressure
gradients in place. As such, it doesn't seem like any wind
headlines are warranted right now. It will be breezy in the
foothills, and even the southern plateau areas, but right now it
doesn't appear that we'll get that downward acceleration like we
would in a true mountain wave wind event and that the speeds will
be low enough to preclude putting up any headlines at the moment.

Otherwise, this system moves off the southeast coastline by
sunrise Monday morning, giving way to persistent ridging that
builds over the Tennessee valley and deep south through at least
the first half of next week. Indications are we'll see dry
conditions through much of next week to be honest. And temperatures
will respond in kind, climbing to 8-10 degrees above normal by
Tue/Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Will see VFR conditions for the period. Winds will generally be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 61 47 58 / 0 10 80 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 59 44 53 / 0 10 80 100
Oak Ridge, TN 32 58 44 53 / 0 10 80 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 57 40 50 / 0 0 70 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

017
FXUS64 KMRX 141123
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High
confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50%
chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the
northern plateau area.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A weak upper low will be traversing from west to east across the
Southeastern US over the next 48 hours, bringing much needed
rainfall to drought-stricken areas. As far as rainfall, the best
odds of an inch reside across the northern Plateau and north side of
Knoxville at the moment. There's been some indications in the model
guidance of a gradient in rainfall rates, with lower rates closer to
the Georgia border near the core of the low, and higher rates
further north where the best dynamical support will reside. So there
may be winners and losers versus overall magnitude of the rainfall.
Those with outdoor plans on Sunday should still pack a poncho or
consider alternate plans.

Long range REFS and HREF indicate a period of gusts up to 40 mph in
the southern TN mountains for a brief spell Sunday morning as flow
aloft increases to 30 knots. Better wind support resides to the
west, but strong inversions should keep surface gusts down outside
of the high terrain. For now will opt against a wind advisory, just
because the overall support is pretty meager.

Once the upper low quickly exits to the coast, upper ridge heights
will begin building in once more, with the H85 ridge anchored over
the southeastern coast, and anomalous February warmth will follow
for midweek. Late week there's indications a surface low will cross
the heartland to the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front down towards
us. For now there's just low chances of rainfall, likely due to
timing differences.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Cloud cover will increase at or above 10,000 feet AGL with
generally southerly to southwesterly winds by the afternoon.
Overnight, winds at the surface will weaken, but winds a few
thousand feet AGL will increase. LLWS is possible by the end of
the TAF period but was left out for the time being. Also, rain
chances will increase south to north heading into Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 47 57 47 / 10 80 100 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 30
Oak Ridge, TN 59 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 49 40 / 0 70 100 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

491
FXUS64 KMRX 142313
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
613 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Widespread rain expected tonight through Sunday. High confidence
in widespread +0.50" totals.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for the East Tennessee mountains
and foothills for early morning Sunday through early afternoon
Sunday with downslope wind enhancement likely.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Currently a ridge is over the Southeast and high pressure is
centered near the NC/SC Coast. Tonight a surface low will move
through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low is supported by a
strong trough embedded in the longwave ridge. Rain chances increase
after midnight tonight as a warm front approaches. By morning,
widespread steady rain will move in as the low tracks through the
Southeast. Instability will be low enough that thunder is very
unlikely. Rain will continue most of the day Sunday before tapering
off in the evening hours. Forecast rain totals will be half an inch
to one inch across the region. The best chance for more than one
inch of rain will be in the northern Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Precipitable water values will be around 1 to 1.2 inches which is
above the 90th percentile for Feb 15.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the East Tennessee Mountains and
foothills for early morning Sunday through early afternoon Sunday.
NBM winds are way too low. A 850 mb jet is moving into the region.
HREF has 850mb winds around 40 to 45 knots from the south or
southeast. With a wind direction favorable for downslope wind
enhancement, gusts of 50 mph or maybe even higher can be expected
in downslope wind prone spots.

Sunday night through midweek will be dry and much warmer as ridging
and high pressure dominate the pattern. By Wednesday, the ridge
breaks down with nearly zonal flow or weak ridging in the upper
levels through Friday or Saturday. Low rain chances return late in
the workweek possibly into the weekend as chances increase for a
system to develop. Highs next week will be much warmer in the 60s
and lower 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Will see rain moving in later tonight and continuing through much
of the day. Conditions will deteriorate to at least MVFR, and IFR
conditions will be likely at CHA and possible at both TYS and TRI
late in the period. Winds will generally be light. Looks marginal
for LLWS at CHA for a period tonight, but not a strong enough
signal to warrant inclusion at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 59 45 67 / 70 100 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 54 43 63 / 70 100 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 45 52 42 64 / 80 100 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 50 39 61 / 80 100 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

872
FXUS64 KMRX 151122
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Widespread rain expected through this evening. High confidence
in widespread +0.50" totals, 1 inch most likely in northern TN
counties.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the East Tennessee
mountains and foothills for early this morning through early
afternoon for strong gusty winds.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week. Next rain chances appear
Thursday and onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Light rain falling aloft has been steadily eroding the surface dry
air the last several hours and is now beginning to reach the surface
over much of the region. Rain will continue to overspread early this
morning, with steady rain expected for most for much of today. Half
inch of rain is expected for nearly everyone, with an inch of
rainfall most likely along and north of the I-40 corridor. This
won't entirely erase our rain deficits, but should provide a break
from the worsening drought. Near zero CAPE present, so not expecting
any lightning today.

A very marginal mountain wind event will be taking place this
morning through the early afternoon. HREF mean gusts are in the 40
to 50 mph range, courtesy of 35 to 40 knots of low crossing the
mountains. No changes to the advisory. Think the southern Smokies
have the best chances to see the strongest gusts.

Once the upper low quickly exits to the coast, upper ridge heights
will begin building in once more, with the H85 ridge anchored over
the southeastern coast, and anomalous February warmth will follow
for midweek. Over the western US a strong subtropical jet will bury
itself into the Southern Rockies this week. Disturbances in the
broader flow over the northwestern US will eventually bring the next
one or two systems to our area with rain during the latter portions
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

As rain continues to spread into the area, aviation conditions
will deteriorate from south to north. CHA is the most likely to
see IFR prevailing through the day with all sites having TEMPO
groups for at least some periods of IFR. Winds have also increased
a few thousand feet AGL, leading to potentially marginal LLWS
through the morning. Rain will gradually diminish by the evening
hours, but some lingering fog can be expected overnight. MVFR is
forecast to be the prevailing category at all of the sites
overnight, but IFR still remains possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 45 67 44 / 100 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 42 63 41 / 100 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 51 41 63 41 / 100 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 38 61 35 / 100 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

011
FXUS64 KMRX 152332
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
632 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Rain ending this evening.

- Dry and significantly warmer this coming week. Next rain
chances appear Thursday and onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Widespread rain will continue through at least early afternoon
across the region as a low moves through AL/GA. Storm Total Precip
across the region already has some pockets of 1 to 1.5 inches mainly
in the Cumberland Plateau and Southern Tennessee Valley. By mid
afternoon, rain will become more light and showery, this is already
occurring in the southern half of the region. Rain will end
completely this evening as the trough and surface low approach the
Southeast Coast.

The Wind Advisory in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills will
be allowed to expire at 2 PM EST. Winds are already starting to
decrease at the few wind towers available there. Winds are also
coming down on the VAD wind profile radar product. Wind gusts above
40 mph were observed at a few of the more wind prone spots but those
higher gusts may not have been as widespread as forecast.

Sunday night through midweek will be dry and much warmer as ridging
and high pressure dominate the pattern. By Wednesday, the ridge
breaks down with nearly zonal flow or weak ridging in the upper
levels through Friday or Saturday. Low rain chances return Thursday, increasing Friday into Saturday as chances increase for a system to
develop. Highs this workweek will be much warmer in the 60s and
lower 70s in the Tennessee Valley. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees
above normal with the warmest days expected to be Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Rain exiting, but MVFR/IFR (or lower) conditions will linger into
the night with improvement to VFR likely occurring first at CHA
overnight and then at TYS and TRI in the early morning. Winds will
generally be from the north and northeast around 10 kts or less.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 66 43 69 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 62 40 67 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 41 63 40 65 / 20 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 60 35 64 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

934
FXUS64 KMRX 161106
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
606 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Mild turning to outright warm weather during the work week.

- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night
and onwards into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A low stratus deck is hanging over much of the wider region early
this morning, most of Wise County had been in fog for a few hours
but fog currently appears to be very patchy across the wider area.

With the upper trough quickly exiting off the Eastern Seaboard this
morning, upper ridge heights are building in once more, with the H85
ridge will be in passing over the southeastern coast, and we will
bask in another round of mild to outright warm temperatures for
mid February. Over the western US a strong subtropical jet will
bury itself into the Southern Rockies this week and eventually
emerge into the Ohio River basin. Disturbances in the broader
flow over the northwestern US will eventually bring the next one
or two systems to our area with rain during the latter portions of
the work week. There's a couple periods of marginally strong H85
flow this week, Wednesday and Friday. Mountains and foothills may
see a few periods of stronger winds, though again it's fairly
marginal (especially given the continued southwesterly flow all
week).

Late in next weekend is increasing signs from both the deterministic
and ensemble guidance of at least one strong cold front. There would
be some potential of upslope mountain snow should the depictions in
the guidance come to fruition. It is still Febrrruary after all!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Conditions have improved back to VFR at CHA and TYS with TRI still
remaining MVFR. Currently, CHA and TYS are likely to remain VFR
with TRI improving to VFR by mid-morning. Winds will also be from
more of a northeasterly direction at 10 kts or less. Overnight,
mostly clear conditions will continue with winds becoming more
southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 43 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 38 67 53 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 62 38 65 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

214
FXUS64 KMRX 162312
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Mild today, turning to outright warm weather during the week.

- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night
and onwards into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Clear skies and surface high pressure building in will present
prime radiational conditions tonight. The question is, will it be
enough for fog development. There could be some locally dense fog
that develops tonight. And it would likely favor the central and
northern valley locales, though it's not out of the possibility
elsewhere. Confidence in it occurring is not very high though, due
to mixed signals in guidance, so I decided to leave it out of the
forecast for the moment.

Looking ahead, a strong subtropical jet will develop over the
desert southwest tonight into Tuesday, extending into the central
CONUS through late this week. Downstream we'll see persistent,
strong southwesterly H85 flow resulting in well above normal
temperatures, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s in the low
elevations tomorrow then climbing into the upper 60s to possibly
low 70s by later this week. There is a shortwave that will eject
from the desert southwest into the central plains Tue night into
Wed, which would drag a front into our region by Thursday,
followed by another system on Friday. Deterministic guidance is
mixed on our rain chances during this time, with some favoring more northern/drier tracks, and others a more southern/wetter track. The
pattern would suggest we'll have several chances for rainfall
between Wednesday night and the end of the forecast period, given
the persistent southwesterly H85 flow and resulting above normal
PWATs in conjunction with frontal boundaries nearby or moving
through the region. This would be much needed given the ongoing
drought conditions.

Lastly, it looks like there will be a couple periods of decent
H85 flow this week (Wednesday and Friday). Mountains and foothills
may see a few periods of stronger winds, though it's fairly
marginal given the lack of strong cross-mountain pressure gradient
and strict southwesterly direction. Additionally, late next
weekend there remain signs from both deterministic and ensemble
guidance of a potentially strong cold front passage. There would
be some potential of upslope mountain snow should the depictions
in the guidance come to fruition. We'll monitor for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Possible fog development tonight (especially TYS and TRI) and
possible MVFR level cigs at CHA during the day tomorrow are areas
of concern, but right now both the fog and lower cigs look like
low probability outcomes so will not include either in the TAFs.
Will include scattered 3 kft clouds at CHA for tomorrow, but all
sites will have a VFR forecast for the period. Winds will
generally be light/calm overnight then become south to southwest
at less than 10kts during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 69 55 69 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 67 53 65 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 39 64 53 64 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 64 43 62 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

286
FXUS64 KMRX 171131
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
631 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Much warmer weather this week.

- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night
and onwards into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low confidence in fog development this morning but some patchy fog
cannot be ruled out in valley areas. In the upper levels, a ridge is
centered over the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure
is over the Southeast. Dry weather is expected Tuesday with
increasing clouds and very low rain chances moving into the region
by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the ridge breaks down with
flow becoming nearly zonal. At the surface, a low kicks out of the
Rockies moving into the Midwest by Thursday. Rain chances start to
increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a warm or
stationary front may be lingering across or near the region. The
best chance of rain will be Thursday night or Friday morning as a
cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great
Lakes. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles cannot be ruled
out.

Some stronger winds will be possible in the mountains and foothills
Wednesday and again Thursday/Friday as 850 mb winds increase but it
looks like gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria.
Temperatures will be much warmer this week with highs mainly in the
60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the
70s for most of the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may
have better upper level support. Should be drying out by Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday and Monday with
highs mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Winds will increase from the southwest throughout the day,
especially at CHA and TYS. Clouds around 3,000 feet AGL will
increase at CHA through the day with even more coverage heading
into tonight. MVFR ceilings were included at CHA for late tonight
into Wednesday morning. For the other sites, cloud cover will be
limited below 15,000 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 54 68 58 / 0 0 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 54 65 58 / 0 0 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 66 54 64 57 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 44 62 53 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

847
FXUS64 KMRX 172354
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Rain chance returns Wednesday night and continues through the
weekend, generally light rain amounts expected.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

A high pressure ridge across the Southeast is providing another
beautiful day in East TN with above normal temperatures. Tonight,
the mid/upper ridge will shift to our east, and clouds will increase
as an upper jet streak and shortwave trough move N-NE across the MS
River. Low level moisture increases as well tonight as the SW flow
brings isentropic lift. This moisture layer is quite shallow in
model soundings, confined mainly below 850 mb, and remains so
through Wednesday. Measurable precip is not likely, although
there could be a few sprinkles here and there. Winds will become
gusty Wednesday afternoon as SW 40-50 kt 850 mb winds increase and
mix down to the surface. Mountains may approach Wind Advisory
criteria, but are more likely to stay below in most populated
elevations, according to the NBM.

Rain chances increase late Wednesday night and Thursday with a
little more forcing and instability associated with a weak
trough/vort max. QPF should be very light as moisture remains below
700 mb, but there could be a enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms. Better rain chances come on Thursday night/Friday
with a surface cold frontal passage. Again, there could be gusty SW
winds ahead of the front on Thursday afternoon, and QPF appears
light due to its shallow moisture, weak instability, and a rather
flat SW flow aloft.

A closed low sitting over the Great Lakes will spin off a shortave
trough that rotates from central Canada toward the OH/TN Valley
region over the weekend. This will likely result in colder
temperatures returning to the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light winds at CHA/TRI tonight, with winds remaining around 10kts
for TYS. Low-level clouds gradually build west to east overnight
into Wednesday. MVFR cigs expected at CHA early morning, mid to
late morning at TYS, and tomorrow afternoon at TRI. Best chance to
have a few light showers around the region will be tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Have included VCSH at TRI/TYS during this time.
It is possible very light precip will be around CHA in the
morning, however, confidence to low to include at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 68 59 77 / 0 10 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 58 74 / 0 10 50 50
Oak Ridge, TN 53 64 57 72 / 0 10 60 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 62 53 69 / 0 10 50 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

316
FXUS64 KMRX 181133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Rain chance returns Wednesday night and continues through the
weekend, generally light rain amounts expected.

- Cold temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

In the upper levels, the ridge over the Southeast breaks down today
becoming nearly zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure over the
Southeast is weak. Rain chances are very low this afternoon. Rain
chances start to increase Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
as a vort max moves through the region. A few rumbles of thunder
will be possible but not likely with dew points remaining below 60
degrees. By Thursday morning, a surface low will move into KS/MO
with a warm front well to our north over IL/IN/OH and a cold front
over OK/TX. Rain chances will be low Thursday afternoon/evening. The
best chance of rain will be Thursday night into Friday morning as
the cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great
Lakes. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles cannot be ruled
out.

Some stronger winds will be likely in the mountains and foothills
through noon Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning as 850 mb winds increase but it looks like gusts will likely
remain below advisory criteria at most locations. The higher
mountain peaks of GSMNP may get some gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range
through Wednesday morning but those higher gusts are not expected to
be widespread enough for a Wind Advisory.

Warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly in the 60s.
Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s in
the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may
have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday as a trough moves
through. There is a chance for some light snow accumulations in the
higher elevations "horseshoe" on the backside of the system on
Sunday but accumulation look very low at this time. Temperatures
will be much colder Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Breezy conditions have already begun at TYS with increasing winds
at CHA and then TRI by noon or so. MVFR ceilings are still
expected to move in south to north through the day but at a slower
rate than previously forecast. CHA will likely remain VFR until
late morning with TYS and TRI remaining VFR until at least early
afternoon. Off and on showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are
also anticipated this evening and overnight. The greatest chance
for impact are at TYS, but MVFR is expected to be in place
regardless.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 59 77 60 / 10 30 20 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 59 74 60 / 20 50 40 80
Oak Ridge, TN 63 57 72 58 / 20 60 40 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 53 71 55 / 20 60 50 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

531
FXUS64 KMRX 182333
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Multiple chances for rain to end the week and into the weekend
with an incoming front.

- Colder, sub-freezing temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Currently another cloudy day with some breezy southwest winds
keeping temperatures warm. Some light radar returns present across
Middle TN and the Cumberland Plateau, which is producing a drizzle
in spots. These will try and make it further into the eastern
Tennessee Valley, but more precipitation coverage looks to hold off
until later tonight when a mid level vort max helps enhance synoptic
level forcing, especially areas north of Interstate 40.

Cloudy and warm conditions continue through Thursday and into Friday
ahead of the main front. Expect on/off scattered to isolated showers
on Thursday and into Friday, primarily north of Interstate 40.
Widespread showers (and even thunderstorms) are expected when the
front finally moves through, which is looking more and more likely
to occur early late Thursday into early Friday morning. Enough
instability in the atmosphere that people could hear their first
rumble of thunder overnight. But expect primarily rain with this
FROPA.

Light rain chances continue over the weekend as the front stalls out
to our south with drizzle possible on Saturday into Sunday, but no
significant accumulations are expected.

Next week we will get much colder with a trough digging south
through the Great Lakes region allowing for very cold Canadian
airmass to move into the region. The highest peaks of the northern
plateau and Appalachian mountains could see a transition from rain
to snow on Sunday as the system ejects out of the region.
Accumulations are expected to be light, generally below 1" for all
but the peaks of the mountains. Overnight temperatures will dip
below freezing by Monday morning, and the coldest night of the week
will be Tuesday morning seeing lows in the 20's to upper teens.

A gradual warming trend can be expected to start for the middle of
the week, bringing temperatures back up to seasonal normals.
However, another cold front can be expected late next week which
looks to drop temperatures back down as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Predominant MVFR conditions are expected through the first two-
thirds of the TAF cycle. Light sprinkle/DZ is on-going and will
continue for the next few hours. Slightly higher probabilities of
on and off rain showers are expected as a vorticity max swings
through the region overnight. Rain chances will taper off late
morning, with MVFR cigs expected to scatter and/or lift around
15-18Z Thursday. Another afternoon of gusty southwest winds is
expected for TYS as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 76 61 74 / 40 20 90 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 73 60 70 / 70 50 90 30
Oak Ridge, TN 58 71 59 70 / 70 50 90 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 69 56 66 / 80 70 70 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

681
FXUS64 KMRX 191135
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
635 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Multiple chances for rain to end the week and into the weekend
with an incoming front.

- Colder, sub-freezing temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow is over the region and a
closed low will move through the Great Lakes Friday. At the surface,
high pressure over the Southeast is retreating as a low moves out of
the Rockies and into the Midwest Thursday morning. Rain showers have
developed in the northern half of the region over the last couple of
hours. Shower activity will continue through Thursday morning as a
vort max moves through the region. Thunder potential is low with dew
points remaining below 60 degrees in the northern half of the region
where the strongest forcing will be. By Thursday evening, the
surface low will be near IA/IL/MO with a warm front over IN/OH and a
cold front along the Mississippi River. Rain chances will be low
Thursday afternoon/early evening. The best chance of rain will be
Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front moves through.
The parent low will be over the Great Lakes and vertically stacked
with the upper low by the time the cold front moves through Friday
morning. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles will be possible
with dew points briefly reaching 60 degrees in most of the Tennessee
Valley.

Strong winds will be likely areawide from Thursday afternoon to at
least Friday morning with gusts up to 30 mph likely at times. Winds
will be even higher in the mountains and foothills Thursday evening
through Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase to 45 knots. Gusts
up to 50 or 55 mph will be possible in wind prone spots. A Wind
Advisory will be issued soon for the mountains and foothills.

Warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with highs mainly
in the 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into
the 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday night, another system is likely to bring rain. This one
may have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday in most
locations as a trough moves through. There is a chance for some
light snow accumulations in the higher elevations "horseshoe" on the
backside of the system on Sunday/Sunday night but accumulations look
very low at this time, less than one inch. No accumulation is
expected in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will be much colder
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Fog has developed at TRI with LIFR remaining likely for the next
couple of hours. CHA and TYS will also still see continued showers
and MVFR conditions with showers lingering into the afternoon at
TRI. CHA and TYS are expected to return back to VFR during the
afternoon with TRI likely remaining MVFR through much of the day.
Heading into tonight, LLWS will become a focus as winds 2,000 feet
AGL and above increase to 40 kts or more. At this time, LLWS was
only added into TRI as breezy southwesterly surface winds are
expected at the other two sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 60 73 49 / 30 80 20 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 59 69 46 / 60 90 20 40
Oak Ridge, TN 72 58 68 45 / 50 80 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 56 66 41 / 70 80 30 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

863
FXUS64 KMRX 191908
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
208 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Line of frontal showers, maybe a thunderstorm early tomorrow
morning. Cannot rule out strong gusty winds, but severe is
highly unlikely.

- Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm through Saturday, cold Sunday
into early next week, and then likely mild again late next
week.

- Cold front early on Sunday likely to induce horseshoe pattern
snowfall in northern high terrain, with potential for lower
elevation snow flurries. Higher uncertainty in exact amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Finally have some decent clearing underway across much of the area,
with Chattanooga indeed able to stay on pace for highs today. Tri-
cities have been lagging, but if they can see some sunshine they may
make a final inning rally.

Tonight a cold front will sweep the region, not particularly
strong thermal gradient wise. The H85 flow aloft however is
strong ahead of the front, 45 to 50 knots, hence the wind
advisory. Think the advisory is another marginal case, with Cove
Mountain likely peaking into the mid range 40s, most other
locations around 40 mph. The other risk potential is the tricky
one of deciding if the surface inversion overnight is strong and
stable enough to keep any shower downdrafts at bay. If the
inversion and poor thermodynamics works out, then we'll just have
a line of showers criss-cross the whole region early morning, and
then a nice day thereafter. But there's some potential given the
high shear/maybe enough CAPE for gusty winds near severe criteria
to be transported to the surface.

We remain in an active pattern into the weekend and early next week
when the upper trough digs in and a couple of embedded shortwaves
come diving into the Eastern US. A very sharp cold front will swing
through on Sunday, sending temperatures back down into winter.
There's still pretty decent spread for how long we can maintain
strong northwest flow on the backside between Sunday and late
Monday, with a wide range of accumulation potential in higher
elevations. For now stuck with the larger ensemble means, which
are on the lower end of the distribution.

Heading into next Tuesday and beyond, temperatures are likely to
moderate once more as the upper trough swings out, higher heights
build in, and a milder airmass moves in from the west. More rain
chances on the horizon by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Messy period still ongoing with light showers north of TYS.
Showers should steadily wind down over next couple of hours.
Another bout of rain associated with cold front likely early
morning. Ahead of the rain a period of LLWS is possible,
especially at KTRI where a surface inversion is most likely.
Cannot rule out fog at KTRI overnight. Once front clears the area
between 11z and 15z, rapid improvement to VFR is expected area
wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 60 71 49 / 30 80 20 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 59 68 46 / 70 90 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 70 57 68 45 / 60 90 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 55 65 42 / 80 80 40 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

921
FXUS64 KMRX 201127
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

-Line of showers with potential for a few embedded rumbles of
thunder move across the region early this morning. Severe weather
is unlikely, but some strong wind gusts between 30-40mph will be
possible.

-Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm conditions through
Saturday, cold Sunday and Monday, and then likely mild again for
mid week.

-Cold front early Sunday likely to induce northwest flow snowfall
pattern through Sunday night. Light snowfall accumulations
possible in higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and
southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation flurries.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

In the upper levels, a broad ridge lays atop the southeastern CONUS
as a shortwave trough begins to dig through the upper mid-west. The
shortwave will guide a surface cold front, currently within western
Tennessee, through the CWA early this morning. A quick moving line
of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected just ahead
of the front. Timing will generally be between 08-12Z. With a strong southwesterly LLJ near 50kts, a high shear / low CAPE environment
will be in place. Most high resolution model derived soundings
depict a few hundred J/Kg of MUCAPE with effective shear near 50kts
and 0-1km shear near 40kts.

Overall, the nocturnal timing of this activity will really hinder
severe potential, though it is possible some strong winds between 30-
40mph get transported to the surface with the most efficient
showers/storms. Additionally, the LLJ will continue promote strong
winds in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. No
changes have been made to the Wind Advisory aside from refreshing
wording.

Shower and storm activity quickly departs this morning, leading way
to a dry late morning and afternoon. Winds will be breezy in the
post-FROPA environment, however, the weaker nature of the shortwave
and front will allow for winds to remain WSWly. As such, above
normal temperatures are expected once again. A southern stream
shortwave will translate towards the southern Appalachians Friday evening/night, bringing additional rain chances. Storm chances will
be even lower during this period as the LLJ will be weaker and
displaced to our south, keeping instability little to none. Drier
conditions return late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Yet another trough is expected Saturday night. However, this will
bring a pattern shift as this trough will be strong enough to shift
upper riding over the Atlantic. Some light and low impact
precipitation is expected early Sunday. For most places this will be
rain, but some light snow is expected in higher elevations of the
mountains and southwest Virginia. The very warm temperatures in
place ahead of this system will help to limit initial accumulations.

As a surface low strengthens off the Atlantic coast Sunday night, reinforcement of northwest flow will promote additional snow in the
higher terrain. Most medium and long range models are in agreement
this will be a lower end event with accumulations between a dusting
to two inches. The deterministic GFS holds higher totals, but seems
to be an outlier due it being slower to kick the surface low over
the Atlantic and also having a more amplified low. Overall, the
RRFS, NAM12, ECMWF, and Canadian all seem to be in pretty decent
agreement.

Monday will be much colder with most valley locations seeing high
temperatures in the 30s. We then dry out with moderating
temperatures into the mid-week. Precip chances look to make a return
at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

The showers are exiting, but gusty winds from the southwest and
west can be expected during the day especially at TYS and TRI.
Some light rain will likely move back in late in the period mainly
CHA and TYS. Will include VCSH both TYS and CHA with a prob30
MVFR cig/vsby light rain group. Just VCSH for now at TRI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 49 66 36 / 10 60 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 47 60 36 / 10 50 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 67 45 61 34 / 0 40 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 43 57 35 / 30 20 20 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

985
FXUS64 KMRX 202318 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

-Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm conditions through Saturday,
cold Sunday and Monday, and then likely mild again for mid week.

-Quick shot of light snow Sunday morning, then a break Sunday
afternoon. Then northwest flow snowfall Sunday night into Monday.
Light snowfall accumulations possible in the higher elevations of
the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential
for low elevation flurries.

-Gusty winds Sunday through Monday for all locations. Gusts to 40
mph in the mountains and 20 to 30 mph in the valley.

-Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of the
southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Additional showers spread into the area overnight from south to
north. A few rumbles of thunder are possible due to some very minor
amounts of elevated instability. No impacts expected. We see a brief
break in the rain Saturday afternoon before additional precip moves
back in Saturday night into Sunday. Rain changes to snow late
Saturday night into Sunday morning before precip exits east by late
Sunday morning. The mountains of southwest VA, northeast TN, and the
east TN mountains may see some light snow accumulations, generally
less than 0.5 inches. 1 to 3 inches are possible across our highest elevations, above 5000 to 6000 feet. The lower elevations of southwest VA
and northeast TN will see some snow flying around as well but little
to no accumulation is expected. Minor travel impacts possible across
the aforementioned higher elevations Sunday morning.

We see a break in the precip Sunday afternoon before additional
moisture wraps into the area around the backside of an east coast
system. This is when northwest flow becomes firmly established
across the area. Sunday night through Monday expect additional light
snowfall accumulations across the same mountainous locations as
previously mentioned. During this timeframe, an additional 1 to 2
inches of snowfall is possible, with isolated higher amounts across
the highest elevations. Some lower elevation locations across
southwest VA and northeast TN may see a dusting to a few tenths of
an inch. NBM POPs and QPF during this timeframe were/are way too low
for this type of event. Minor travel impacts expected during this
timeframe across the higher elevations.

Additionally, gusty winds will also be in place Sunday through
Monday for all locations. Roughly 30kts of 850mb flow out of the
northwest will translate to wind gusts to around 40 mph across the
higher elevations. Good mixing at the surface, as indicated by the
inverted v soundings, mean valley locations will see gusty winds as
well, generally between 20 to 30 mph.

Because of the colder air moving in, and gusty winds, Wind Chills in
the single digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday
across the higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and
southwest NC mountains.

We dry out on Tuesday and milder temperatures return. The warming
trend continues thereafter but so do increasing chances of rain and
storms from Wednesday and beyond. The best chances for widespread
rainfall look to occur between Thursday and Thursday night, where
another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is possible across our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Gusty wind are tapering off with sunset. Overnight, rain will
begin to fall from a midlevel cloud deck, not impacting TAF sites
until lat in the night as low levels moisten. Even then expect low
VFR cigs and 6SM vis, with CHA being a possible exception to have
MVFR vis/cigs. Precip should exit by noon, with cigs remaining
broken at low VFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 66 34 47 / 70 20 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 61 35 42 / 50 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 45 62 34 42 / 40 20 40 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 58 34 39 / 30 20 60 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

879
FXUS64 KMRX 211121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Rain is expected through through the morning hours with the best
chance for a few rumbles of thunder across portions of southeast
TN and southwest NC. Afternoon will be mostly dry, with light
rain precipitation returning tonight.

- Quick shot of light snow Sunday morning, then a break Sunday
afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall Sunday night through Monday
evening. Light accumulations expected in the East TN Mountains
and southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation
flurries at times.

- Gusty winds Sunday through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected
for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in the
mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of southwest
VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A shortwave traversing mean flow aloft will continue to promote
rain showers through the overnight. A few rumbles of thunder
cannot be totally ruled out with very minimal elevated
instability, but no significant impacts are expected as shear is
also limited with a weak LLJ displaced just to our south. Best
chance for a few rumbles of thunder will be in the southern valley
and southwest NC. Rain will gradually come to an end through the
morning, with a mostly dry afternoon expected.

A more prominent trough digs into the Ohio Valley as a cold front
approaches the region later this evening and tonight. Precipitation
chances will return as mostly rain to begin. As temperatures begin
to fall early Sunday morning, a transition to snow is expected to
bring light accumulations in the East Tennessee mountains and
southwest Virginia. SW VA and E TN Mtns elevations 2kft or less
would can expected a dusting to just a few tenths during this time.
Mtn elevations above 2kft could see up to two inches, with isolated
higher totals at the tallest peaks +5kft. A few flurries cannot be
ruled out in lower elevations of NE TN Valley and the Cumberland
Plateau but accumulation seems unlikely due to warmer grounds.

Moisture becomes very limited with mostly dry conditions for a brief
period late morning and afternoon Sunday. A reinforcing disturbance
and deepening of the sfc low along the East Coast will allow for a
resurgence of low-level moisture and amplified NW flow Sunday night
into Monday. Additional snowfall accumulations are expected in
northwest flow snowfall locations through Monday evening. This will
be the most likely time to see totals up to 2 inches in portions of
southwest VA, with locally higher totals in the most favored ridge
tops. Portions of the northern Plateau and northeast TN could also
see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. An additional 1 to 3
inches could be possible in the east TN mountains.

Overall, snowfall totals for southwest Virginia will trend up to 2
inches with locally higher totals for the event. East TN mountain
locations can expect 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals near
5 inches at the very highest peaks. Portions of NE TN valley and
Cumberland Plateau could see a dusting to a few tenths.
Additionally, gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. With below
normal temperatures in place, wind Chills in the single digits to
below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the higher
elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

Snow tapers off Monday night with drier conditions and warming trend
expected into the mid-week. Next chances for rain will be Wednesday
night into Thursday with it currently looking to trend drier by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Showers will exit early this morning, but will make a return
during the night. Mainly VFR conditions for much of the period all
sites, with MVFR conditions likely late in the period especially
TYS and TRI as the showers move in. Winds will generally be
light, but will increase from the north and northwest late in the
period to around 10 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 34 46 24 / 30 30 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 34 41 25 / 30 40 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 61 33 41 24 / 20 40 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 34 38 23 / 20 60 40 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

130
FXUS64 KMRX 212330 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN
mountains and portions of southwest VA for two separate rounds of
snow.

- Quick shot of light snow tonight into Sunday morning, then a break
Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall Sunday night through
Monday evening. Light to moderate accumulations expected in the East
TN mountains and light accumulations for the southwest VA mountains,
with potential for low elevations snow showers/flurries at times.

- Gusty winds Sunday through Monday. Gusts to around 30 mph expected
for all valley locations with gusts near 40 mph possible in the
mountains of East TN.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of southwest
VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Two rounds of winter weather expected between tonight and Monday
across southwest VA, northeast TN, and the East TN mountains. A
Winter Weather Advisory in in effect from midnight tonight through
midnight Monday night.

Precipitation spreads into the area tonight along the leading edge
of an incoming trough. Rain changes to snow around midnight across
the east TN and southwest VA mountains. Then, the rain/snow line
moves down in elevation toward sunrise with snow showers/flurries
across the lower elevations. The bulk of the precipitation moves
east of our area by 10 AM with this first wave. Elevations above
4000 feet across the east TN mountains are expected to see 1 to 3
inches of snow during this time. Lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches
expected between 2500 and 4000 feet. The highest elevations of
southwest VA may see 1 to 2 inches. A dusting to a few tenths of an
inch of snow are also possible across valley locations across
northeast TN and southwest VA. Minor travel impacts are probable
across the highest elevations during these times.

We see a brief break in precip Sunday afternoon before the northwest
flow snow machine cranks up Sunday night through Monday. An
additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected during this time above
4000 feet across the East TN mountains and 1 to 2 inches between
2500 and 4000 feet. For southwest VA mountains, another 1 to 2
inches. Minor travel impacts are likely at times across the highest
elevations and probable across the low to middle elevations.
Accumulations from trace amounts to a few tenths of an inch are
possible across the valley locations of southwest VA and into
northeast TN. Little to no impacts expected for valley locations.

The two periods of expected winter weather allowed for a long
duration Winter Weather headline. The advisory is in effect from
midnight tonight until midnight Monday night. This long duration was
done in order to simply things, instead of ending an advisory Sunday
afternoon and having to reissue a new one for Sunday night.

Additionally, we are still expecting gusty winds areawide Sunday and
Monday. The highest peaks of the East TN mountains will gust to
around 40 mph at times, and valley locations across the rest of our
area will see gusts from 20 to 30 mph. With below normal
temperatures in place, and gusty winds, wind Chills in the single
digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the
higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC
mountains.

Snow tapers off Monday night with drier conditions and warming trend
expected into the mid-week. Next chances for rain will be Wednesday
night into Thursday with it currently looking to trend drier by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Ceilings lower tonight as precip spreads in from southwest to
northeast. MVFR ceilings are forecast for all sites. VFR
conditions return around sunrise for CHA and TYS but remain
through the period at TRI. Additionally, gusty west to northwest
winds of around 25kts are forecast tonight and through the end of
the period at CHA and by late tomorrow morning at TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 44 24 39 / 20 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 40 24 35 / 40 10 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 32 40 23 36 / 40 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 37 22 31 / 50 50 60 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST
Monday night for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky
Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST
Monday night for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

317
FXUS64 KMRX 221121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN mountains
and portions of southwest VA for two separate rounds of snow.

- Quick bout of light snow this morning, then a break late
morning and afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall this evening
through Monday evening. Light to moderate accumulations expected
in the East TN Mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential
for low elevation flurries at times.

- Gusty winds through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for
valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in highest peaks
of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
tonight through Monday across the higher elevations of the
southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Drier with a gradual warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A cold front is progressing across the forecast area this morning
with light radar returns. Valley locations will be predominantly
light rain through the early morning, but any lingering light
precipitation in northeastern valley locations around daybreak could
be falling as light snow or flurries for a brief period. Snow
showers in higher elevations through the morning may bring a dusting
to 2 inches of snow in the higher peaks of the East Tennessee
mountains. Portions of southwest VA in the Winter Weather Advisory
could see a dusting up to an inch.

That being said, latest RAP and NAM data suggest RH in the lowest
portions of the DGZ to be insufficient for good dendrite production
over the next 12 hours. This will help limit snowfall efficiency. Additionally, Mt LeConte and Newfound Gap COOP observations show
about 5 or 6 days of high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s
with afternoon sunshine to help warm the grounds. This could
ultimately lead to melting of some initial snowfall as well. These
two reasonings admittedly lead to lower confidence in the morning accumulations in that they may be over done.

After a brief drier period late morning and afternoon, a reinforcing
shortwave translating through the base of the upper level trough
will amplify deep nwly flow and increase moisture in the DGZ Sunday
evening. A prolonged period of northwest flow snowfall will continue
Sunday evening though Monday evening. This is the most likely time
frame for snow accumulations to bring impacts. Overall event to
snowfall amounts will generally be 1 to 4 inches between below 4kft,
between 4 to 7 inches at and above 4kft. Isolated amounts greater
than 7 inches will be possible at the highest peaks. For southwest
VA, most likely totals are between 1 to 4 inches. Isolated totals
between 3 to 5 inches at the highest peaks and ridges. Some valley
locations in far NE TN and SW VA could see a dusting to a few tenths
of an inch.

In addition to the snowfall, cold and breezy conditions are expected
Sunday through Monday night. Most places will see wind gusts up to
30mph, with high elevations of the mountains seeing closer to 40mph.
The cold ambient temperatures and strong winds will also promote
single digit wind chills in southwest VA and the TN mtns, with the
highest elevations of the mtns expected to see sub-zero wind chills.

Last of the NWFS will taper off late Monday and mostly dry
conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be overnight
Wednesday into Thursday as a upper trough digs into the Ozarks and
Ohio Valley region. Dry and warm under the influence of high
pressure for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

CHA will likely remain VFR for the period. May be some brief MVFR
cigs to start at TRI, but both TYS and TRI will likely be VFR for
much of today. Tonight will likely see MVFR conditions again at
TRI along with a few snow showers or flurries, and perhaps at TYS
at least briefly. Will just include the MVFR cigs at TYS in a
prob30 snow flurry group for now. Winds will be gusty from the
west and northwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 23 39 22 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 23 36 20 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 23 37 20 / 0 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 22 31 19 / 30 40 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

117
FXUS64 KMRX 222314 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the far East TN
mountains and portions of southwest VA through Monday night.
Please refer to the Winter Weather Advisory product for more
details.

- Outside of the advisory area, snow showers or flurries are
expected for the Plateau, northeast Tennessee, rest of southwest
Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. Snow accumulations of a
dusting to 1 inch across southwest VA/northeast TN expected.
Since temperatures have been pretty mild recently, accumulations
will be mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces.

- Gusty winds through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for
valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in highest peaks
of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
tonight through Monday across the higher elevations of the
southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong system moves across the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians Thursday. Strong winds and widespread showers are
currently associated with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Currently, widespread snow showers are moving across southwest
Virginia into northeast Tennessee. Initially the airmass is dry
but will quickly saturate. Area observations and webcams show
snowfall across much of this area with limited accumulations.

Deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nations will
cyclonic flow over the Ohio and eastern Tennessee valley into the
central and southern Appalachians. Strong northwest boundary layer
flow with 850mb winds of 25-30 knots will produce good orographic
light into the southwest VA/far east Tennessee mountains through
Monday evening.

HREF snow accumulations look overdone but do expect up to 6-8
inches across the highest elevations, such as Roane Mountain and
Smoky Mountains. Snowfall of 2 to 5 inches will be common.

For the lower elevations of northeast TN/southwest VA and
Plateau, occasional snow showers or flurries are expected. Snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch possible. Due to recently warm
temperatures, snow accumulations will mainly be across elevated
and grassy surfaces for tonight and Monday.

Besides the snow, strong west to northwest winds will produce
wind chills across the higher peaks as low as 5 to 10 below zero.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper trough moves east with upper flow
becoming more zonal allowing for moderating temperatures and dry
conditions.

For late Wednesday night and especially Thursday, a strong upper
jet moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys produing divergence
aloft over the region. This divergence strengthens the frontal
genetic forcing along an incoming frontal boundary during the
afternoon Thursday. Boundary layer winds are quite strong with the
850mb jet of 60-70 knots. Ensemble CAPE is quite limited even
though shear is high. Will need to monitor for possible strong
winds before and along line of showers.

This system moves quickly east with zonal upper flow returning
along with mild conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Gusty winds will impact all sites through the period. Snow showers
will impact TRI, mainly in the first 6 hours of the TAF as a brief
snow shower may reduce vis/cigs to MVFR. These on/off snow showers
may persist through the night, but will mention as a PROB30 until
06Z for now. MVFR cigs are expected to linger at TRI overnight,
then lift to VFR tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 39 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 36 20 47 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 22 36 21 46 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 32 19 42 / 40 30 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for
Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

215
FXUS64 KMRX 231121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN
mountains and southwest VA through tonight. Please refer to the
Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- For lower level valley locations, a dusting to a few tenths of
an inch. Isolated amounts near an inch possible in the event of
consecutive moderate to heavy snow bands.

- Gusty winds through the evening. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph
expected for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in
highest peaks of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong system moves across the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians Thursday. Strong winds and widespread showers are
possible with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

The forecast for the on-going snow remains in decent shape,
albeit, snow had been slower to start accumulating in the Smoky
Mtns. Latest obs from the Newfound Gap station now shows about 1
1/4" snow depth. As mentioned in the evening update, an SPS was
issued for portions of northeast Tennessee and an Advisory
expanded to the remainder of southwest Virginia based on evening
radar trends. Will just touch up the wording and numbers here this
morning but no additional changes at this time.

Snow will gradually taper off as moisture availability wanes
tonight. Drier conditions with a gradual warming trend can be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A vort max will move
through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night. An associated LLJ
and strengthening pressure gradient will bring breezy winds Tuesday
night into Wednesday. H85 flow is more westerly so this does not
look to be a downslope event.

Next chances for rain return Wednesday night with increasing
isentropic lift ahead of a trough diving into the south central US.
This will drive a front through the area Thursday. Another amplified
LLJ is expected, this time with a more southwesterly orientation.
Despite little to no instability in soundings, this will be worth
watching for strong to isolated damaging winds as the high shear
environment could transport strong winds aloft when the main axis of
frontal forcing swings across the region. Drier conditions return
late week and through much of the weekend.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Snow showers and flurries to start at TYS and TRI, and will
include prob30 MVFR groups at both. Otherwise a VFR forecast for
the period. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest
through today, then will begin to diminish late.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Some light snow showers/flurries around to start especially TRI.
Will include a prob30 MVFR vsby/cig group at TRI for several hours
this morning with these snow showers. Otherwise, will have a VFR
forecast for the period all sites. Winds will be gusty from the
west and northwest today, then will diminish tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 23 52 39 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 20 47 39 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 20 46 37 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 20 41 33 / 20 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

549
FXUS64 KMRX 232321 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the far East TN mountains
and southwest VA through this evening. Please refer to the
Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong west to southwest winds possible Wednesdasy and Thursday
especially across the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Radar and area observations continue to show a good deal of snow
showers or flurries across much of east Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. Cyclonic around a deep upper low off the northeast
United States is keeping a good deal of low stratus cloud cover
across the area. Cold air will continue to squeeze out the
moisture producing light snow or flurries through at least this
evening.

Reported snow accumulations across the advisory area has ranged
from 1 to 4 inches with the highest peaks up to 6 inches.
Additional snowfall of 1/2 to 1 inch possible across the advisory
area.

As typically the case with strong cyclonic flow, stratu-cu
overcast is slow to erode. Definitely slower than NBM. A gradual
erosion of the clouds from southwest to northeast is expected
overnight.

For Tuesday, low clouds will be replaced by increasing high and
mid-level clouds. Deep upper low moves east with flow making the
transition to more zonal. This will allow for moderation of
temperatures.

For Wednesday through Thursday, fast zonal flow will allow for a
series of jet streaks to increase the boundary west to southwest
flow. The 850mb jet increases to 50 knots for Wednesday producing
increasing isentropic lift increasing the coverage of showers by
late in the day. By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, jet
dynamics strengthens with good divergence aloft. Increasing
fronto-genetic forcing and isentropic lift will producing
widespread showers. Ensemble analysis shows little to no
instability so thunder chances are low. Also, ensemble QPF shows a
60-70 percent probability of 24 hour rainfall of 1 inch so much
needed rainfall is expected with this system.

Besides the rain, windy conditions are expected across the higher
elevations for Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, drier flow aloft with weak surface
ridging will produce mild and dry conditions.

For Sunday and Monday, a series of jet streaks will once again
increase the moisture transport back north into the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. Increasing chances of showers are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Expecting VFR conditions at all sites through the period, although
there is a low chance of MVFR cigs at TRI overnight, mainly
06-12Z. The probability appears to low to mention in the TAF at
this time, and will amend as needed. Cloud cover will become
scattered late tonight or tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish
in the next hour or two, and will shift to a SW direction
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 47 39 56 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 20 46 37 56 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 42 33 52 / 10 0 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

634
FXUS64 KMRX 241111
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Light snow in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia is
winding down, ending entirely before morning.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday night across the higher elevations of the
southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong southwest or westerly winds possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday especially across the higher elevations.

- High rain chances Wednesday night through Thursday as another
system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Some light snow can be seen on radar this evening in Southwest
Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Recent accumulations reported are
very light. HREF one hour snowfall has this snow tapering off
shortly after midnight, ending entirely before morning. Lows will be
in the upper teens and lower 20s this morning in the Tennessee
Valley despite lingering clouds. Wind Chills in the single digits to
below zero are expected through Monday night across the higher
elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

In the upper levels, the deep trough over the East Coast is moving
out to sea slowly. Northwest flow will continue as a trough moves
into the Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is
over the Southeast today. A low is moving into the Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the
region Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance for rain will be
Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary lingers.
Temps will be warm enough for an all rain event. Although some light
snow will be possible in Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast
Tennessee as the boundary first approaches early Wednesday morning
but no accumulation is expected.

Strong southwest winds possible Tuesday night and Wednesday
especially across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds
increasing Tuesday night peaking in the early morning hours around
50 knots. Winds will become more westerly as the higher winds move
in, so downsloping may be minimal. Cloud cover will keep stronger
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20
to 25 mph still seem possible there. In the higher elevations of the
East Tennessee Mountains a Wind Advisory may be issued later on.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures.
The weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak troughing
aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this
weekend with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Any lingering low VFR clouds will clear out early followed by an
increase in high clouds, with VFR conditions expected to continue
for the period. The winds at 2kft will be strengthening overnight
and will likely result in LLWS at CHA and TRI late, but at TYS
the southwest surface winds are expected to increase enough
overnight to keep it below LLWS criteria.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 39 60 51 / 0 0 10 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 39 57 48 / 0 10 20 70
Oak Ridge, TN 45 37 57 47 / 0 10 20 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 32 52 42 / 0 20 20 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

935
FXUS64 KMRX 242352
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected later today through Thursday,
especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday with
most places receiving between 1 and 2 inches.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with
troughing to our east. Another shortwave/low pressure system is
moving across the northern extent of the Great Lakes region with
high pressure receding to our south. The increase in MSLP gradient
and broad southwesterly 850mb flow. This will lead to increasingly
breezy conditions across the region with high pressure promoting
subsidence and low afternoon RH's. By this evening into the
overnight period, the 40 to 50 kt 850mb jet will be to our west with
a tightening MSLP gradient. This will make for continued breezy
conditions overnight, especially across the higher elevations closer
to the 850mb level. While downsloping is not expected in this setup,
synoptic flow of over 40 kts will be more than sufficient for gusts
near to above 40 mph across the higher elevations. Based on the high-
res data, there is reasonably high confidence for a Wind Advisory in
the Smokies starting late this evening. On Wednesday, the flow will
become more westerly with increasing moisture arriving from the
southwest. This will lead to a return of precipitation chances,
especially later in the day. The thermal profile suggests
temperatures to be above freezing near and below 850mb, keeping
precipitation as all rain. The profile will also be cool enough to
keep instability to our south. Ultimately, Wednesday night through
Thursday will provide some much needed rain to the region with the
ongoing drought. With the expected moisture and duration of
rainfall, most places are likely to see between 1 and 2 inches.

By Friday, drier weather will return as high pressure builds back in
from the north and west. A similar overall pattern will continue
through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Height
rises will help temperatures rise back well into the 60s with some
lower 70s in southern portions of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Increased cloudiness and southwesterly winds expected through the
overnight hours. A LLJ will increase out of the WSW during the
overnight as well. LLWS in place at CHA and TRI. Gusty winds
primarily at the SFC at TYS, will most likely prevent a LLWS set-
up there. TAF lines for beyond 18z added to reflect CIG to MVFR
levels, and the probability of precipitation. Rain will be the
predominate precipitation type, given warmer temperatures
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 51 66 / 0 20 80 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 47 61 / 10 40 90 80
Oak Ridge, TN 38 55 47 60 / 10 40 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 42 56 / 20 40 80 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

174
FXUS64 KMRX 251120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through this afternoon
especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide this evening through Thursday with
most places expected to receive between half an inch and 1.5
inches of rain.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S.
Northwest flow will continue as a shortwave moves into the
Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure is over
the Southeast as a low is moving through Ontario and Quebec to
the north Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the
region Wednesday night through Thursday. The best chance for rain
will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary
lingers. Forecast rainfall totals are half an inch to 1.5 inches
with widespread rain expected. Temps will be warm enough for an
all rain event. Although some light snow will be possible in
Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast Tennessee as the boundary
first approaches early Wednesday morning but no accumulation is
expected.

Strong southwest winds are expected through Wednesday especially
across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds increasing and
peaking in the early morning hours around 50 knots. Winds will
become more westerly as the higher winds move in, so downsloping
will be minimal. Advisory level winds (40+ mph gusts) are likely on
the tallest peaks so mainly GSMNP. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for the Smokies through late morning. Cloud cover will keep stronger
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20
to 25 mph still seem possible there through Wednesday afternoon.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures.
Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak
troughing aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer
this weekend with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for
next week but another chance for rain looks likely with mild temps
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR to start all sites. Will continue LLWS briefly to start at
CHA and TRI due to fairly light surface winds and wind magnitudes
around 45 kts near 2,000 feet AGL. LLWS not included for TYS due
to stronger surface winds. Winds will become gusty from the
southwest all sites today. Will see rain and lower cigs/vsby
moving in today and continuing into tonight, with conditions
deteriorating to at least MVFR all sites and likely to IFR (or
lower) at both TYS and TRI. May see LLWS again late in the period
mainly at CHA, but right now it looks too borderline to include
that far out.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 51 65 46 / 30 80 90 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 47 60 43 / 40 90 90 40
Oak Ridge, TN 55 47 60 41 / 30 90 80 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 43 55 39 / 30 90 80 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

167
FXUS64 KMRX 252359
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Widespread rain will move in this evening and continue through
Thursday morning. Most places will see at least 1 inch with some
locations along and near Interstate 40 possibly seeing 2 inches or
more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Currently, broad troughing is centered to our north and east with a
surface low tracking across Canada. A frontal boundary also extends
to our northwest. By this evening, the front will approach the
region with moisture increasing from the southwest. This will lead
to a return of rain chances, which will continue through Thursday
morning. As the front becomes almost exactly lined up with
Interstate 40, repeated rainfall is expected along these areas. This
is further enhanced by mean flow being in a similar direction. CAMs
show the possibility of over 2 inches in some locations. With up to
100 J/kg of elevated instability, isolated storms could increase
totals as well. Localized flooding is possible in some low-lying or
urban areas, but with persistent drought and the need for rainfall,
this threat is limited overall. Rain chances will decrease through
the day on Thursday as the front drifts further south and east.

By Friday, high pressure will build back into the region, leading to
drier conditions. Another surface low will track far to our north
into Saturday, leading to more southerly flow and warmer
temperatures. This pattern remains largely the same on Sunday, but a
strong Arctic High will come into our view over the northern U.S.
Locally, a frontal boundary ahead of this Arctic High will promote
another return of precip chances by early next week. Currently, the
profiles suggest temperatures remaining high enough in our area to
keep everything as mainly rain with colder air staying to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Deteriorating weather conditions expected in the coming hours with
the arrival of rainfall and lowering CIG. CIG and VSBY as low
as IFR with possible periods of LIFR during the overnight and
early morning hours. Inherited LLWS at CHA kept beginning at 06z.
Rain forecast to move out of the region of all terminals by early
afternoon, although CIG may only improve to as best as MVFR
levels to finish out the TAF period. SWly winds will eventually
becoming more N-NEly with variable magnitude following the front's
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 65 48 69 / 90 80 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 60 45 64 / 100 80 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 43 66 / 100 70 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 55 39 61 / 100 70 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

187
FXUS64 KMRX 261125
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Widespread rain will continue through at least the morning
hours as a stationary boundary lingers. Most places will see at
least 1 inch with some locations along and near Interstate 40
possibly seeing 2 inches or more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, a stationary boundary across the region Wednesday night
through Thursday will bring moderate to heavy rain at times.
Stratiform rain has been intensifying on radar over the past couple
of hours along and north of I-40. Moderate to heavy rain is upstream
in Middle Tennessee moving east along and north of I-40. Rain will
continue overnight as a stationary boundary lingers over the region.
Rain will become more widespread overnight but the highest rain
totals are expected along the I-40 corridor and northward, where up
to 2 inches will be possible by midday Thursday. PWAT values are
high around 1 inch through the morning hours, which is above the
90th percentile (0.77in according to sounding climatology). Some
minor flooding issues like ponding on roadways and low lying areas
cannot be ruled out. Thunder potential is low but the best chance is
south of I-40. Rain will start to move out during the afternoon
hours on Thursday.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a slight drop in dew points Friday but not colder
temperatures. Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal
flow or weak troughing aloft with high pressure near the surface.
Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this weekend
with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for next week
but another chance for rain looks likely (best chance on Monday)
with mild temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Will see rain and MVFR/IFR conditions continue all sites through
the morning, with the rain ending by early afternoon followed by
gradual improvement in conditions. May see VFR conditions by late
in the day. Fog will be possible late especially TYS and TRI, but
confidence in the details is low and will just include MVFR vsby
both sites for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 45 68 44 / 90 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 64 41 / 90 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 61 42 65 40 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 37 61 38 / 90 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

459
FXUS64 KMRX 262343
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rainfall had mostly moved out of the forecast area this afternoon,
though some lingering showers were still ongoing over the TN
mountains and from the far southern TN valley eastward into our
NC counties. Expect dry conditions area wide by 3-4 PM this
afternoon, which will then last through the weekend before the
next chance of rain arrives Sunday night into early next week.

For tonight, some uncertainty exists with respect to how much
clearing we'll see, and subsequently whether any fog or low cloud
development will take place. Lack of notable air mass change
suggests we will see both, and the forecast and temperatures
reflect that. Despite broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and
TN valley, we'll see a notable warming trend over the weekend
with temperatures pushing 10-15 degrees above normal.

The next chance of rain is late Sunday night into Monday as a weak
southern stream disturbance slides east from the Ozarks, along or
just north of the KY/TN border. This is a quick hitting system
with no chances of severe storms or heavy rains to speak of. For
the mid to latter parts of next week the upper pattern becomes
more amplified, with a western trough and shortwaves ejecting
northeast from the southern plains into the Ohio valley roughly
speaking. Locally, I think there's fairly high uncertainty as to
our rain chances, and certainly our chances for any heavy rains or
thunderstorm activity, during this time. As noted, some guidance
takes the Sun night/Mon disturbance eastward through Kentucky or
even the southern Ohio valley area while others slide it east
along the TN/KY line. The southern path opens the door for maybe a
stalled frontal boundary over our area Tue into the mid week time
frame before the upper pattern amplifies and we wind up in firmly
on the dry side of an open warm sector. This would mean chances
for rain lasting Monday into mid week before drying out. Either
way we'll be significantly warmer than normal as heights begin to
build over the southeast, but the more northern track Sun/Mon
just means we'd likely be dry for much of next week and warmer
still.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rain has moved out of the region but some low clouds will linger
overnight. Fog is also a possibility especially near TYS and TRI.
Fog may be dense at TRI but confidence is low with low clouds
expected to linger. MVFR conditions are likely at TYS and TRI
through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 68 43 72 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 63 40 68 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

912
FXUS64 KMRX 271107 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
607 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Chance of rain across the extreme southern part of the forecast
area this morning.

- Dry and mild conditions return today, lasting through the
weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

- Well above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A chance of rain exists across the southern fringe of the
forecast area this morning, as a frontal boundary continues moving
away. Any thunderstorm activity should remain well to the south
out of our area. Once past that, dry conditions under developing
high pressure will move in for the weekend. Saturday looks
warmest out of the weekend, with valley temperatures ranging from
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Increasing cloud cover Sunday will drop
temperatures some, especially across the north. A weak system
moves in across the north, providing the cloudier conditions.

Rain chances return during the week next week, with repeated
shortwave activity moving west to east across the middle of the
country. A potentially stronger system moves in around the end of
the forecast period, under a stronger shortwave trough. Though we
are a ways out for specifics on next week's precipitation,
something we can be the most assured of are much warmer
temperatures. The forecast period may round out with mid to
possibly, upper 70s for the valley. This would be in the
neighborhood of 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Predominant VFR conditions are expected today. TRI has MVFR cigs
this morning, which should lift and clear out by noon as drier air
moves in and mixes through the boundary layer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

806
FXUS64 KMRX 272329
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.

- Rain chances return the first of the week, with slight chances
persisting thereafter.

- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20
degrees above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Not much to talk about over the next 7 days. Dry and mild conditions
are expected through the weekend. A dry cold front is expected to
come through on Sunday, NBM currently has no POPs, but we will
see an increase in clouds. Temps on Monday will be slightly cooler
behind the front, but still mild, and rain chances begin to
increase as a weak disturbance moves through zonal flow and across
our area. Slight chance to chance POPs hang around through
Tuesday as this disturbance slowly pushes east. The higher POPs
are north of I-40 with lesser POPs south of I-40.

Wednesday through Friday, temperatures ramp up as ridging
strengthens across the southeast. High temps will generally be in
the 70s with the southern TN Valley possibly hitting 80 degrees by
Friday. NBM keeps some POPs in place during this time to account
for a potential system coming through during this timeframe.

Overall, no hazardous weather is expected at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Guidance still indicates patchy fog is likely in the valley
tonight under mainly clear skies and light winds. Added a TEMPO to
KTYS to mirror the fog potential with still low confidence at KCHA
for fog potential. Otherwise light winds and little clouds next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

370
FXUS64 KMRX 281104 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
604 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.

- Rain chances return the first of the week, with at least slight
chances persisting thereafter.

- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20
degrees above normal by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A gorgeous start to the weekend yesterday will continue into
today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures a few degrees
warmer. Mid to upper 60s will be common with a few readings in the
lower 70s. A rather weak frontal boundary will move through
Sunday. However, precipitation will primarily remain to the north,
with possible low end chances of rain for far northern reaches of
the forecast area. Temperatures a touch cooler, with the greatest difference/noticeable change across the north, where the cold
front will have already crossed at peak heating of the day.

Rain chances for the rest of the area return during the week next
week, with repeated shortwave activity moving west to east across
the middle of the country. A potentially more pronounced system
moves in towards the latter part of the week, under a stronger
shortwave trough. Monday onward will at least present a slight
chance of precipitation each day through the end of the forecast
period.

Though we are a ways out for specifics on next week's
precipitation, something we're the most assured of are much
warmer temperatures to come. The forecast period may round out
with mid to possibly, upper 70s for the valley. 80 degrees may
even sneak in there somewhere, especially for the southern valley.
This would be in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

No aviation impacts are expected this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 69 44 68 41 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

120
FXUS64 KMRX 282322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Rain chances return the first of the week, mainly north of I-40.

- Warming trend next week with high temps 15 to 20 degrees above
normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Pleasant weekend weather continues today and tomorrow with plenty of
sun, mostly clear skies, and light winds in place. Very weak
frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the Tennessee
Valley. This will make a push southward heading into next week. A
weak disturbance will ride north of this boundary within the broader
troughing in the mid/upper levels. This will bring our next chance
of precipitation to the region. Current location of the better
synoptic energy is north of Interstate 40, but even these locations
aren't expected to see too much precipitation. Northeast TN into
southwest VA could see a couple of tenths of precipitation on
Monday, but with the weak energy in this system still expecting all
rain, and no thunderstorms.

Biggest weather story of next week will be the rapid warming with
highs possibly eclipsing the 80 degree mark in southeast TN on
Friday. There will be a battle ground next week between the strong
ridge over the southeast and a few low pressure systems moving out
of the west. Currently looks like this will result in lots of rain
over the Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley, but
worth keeping an eye on because if these systems shift eastward
we'll get more chances for rain. So while we have precipitation
chances increasing over the weekend, at this time, it looks to be
more showery instead of widespread rain further to our west.

However we do feel much more confident on the warm temperatures for
the end of the week as the ridge strengthens. The specific
temperatures can and likely will change as we get closer, but as of
right now the forecast is within a handful of degrees of record
highs in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR TAFs area wide through the period, with dry weather expected.
Ceilings in the north, including KTRI, will be lowering through
the period as a weak system approaches and passes, but currently
expected to remain VFR. Winds tomorrow may have an isolated gust
to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 74 47 67 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 69 45 62 / 10 10 20 30
Oak Ridge, TN 45 69 44 60 / 10 10 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 63 38 54 / 0 10 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

636
FXUS64 KMRX 011108 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Slight chance of rain nearest the Kentucky border today, then
increasing for tomorrow but mainly north of I-40.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures approaching
20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

The weekend will end with another dry day for most. A cold front
moving through later today will build cloud cover over the area
and bring an outside chance of rain primarily to southwest
Virginia. Near Knoxville and south may see temperatures a bit
warmer today compared to yesterday. Because of the incoming front
and clouds, locations to the north may end up being a bit cooler,
in comparison.

For tomorrow, chances of rain will increase almost everywhere with
a system expected to develop over the Plains and move east. Those
with the best chance of seeing precipitation will be around I-40
and north. It's possibly some higher elevation locations see a mix
of rain and snow, but not expecting any wintery impacts. We should
generally be on the warm side of the developing cold air wedge
east of the mountains.

Tuesday we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and ridging
builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to remain
locked to north with possibly dry weather continuing into
Wednesday. By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave
trough moves in to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are
growing differences in model output, but this could bring a
stronger system to the area with widespread rain possible.
Thereafter, Friday and into the beginning of the weekend continues
an unsettled weather trend.

Tuesday until the end of the forecast period, will continue a
warming trend across the area. By the end of the week and
beginning of the weekend, low 80s are possible for valley
locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees
yet for early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

No aviation impacts this period. Midlevel clouds will be broken to
scattered through the day, with a wind shift to north late in the
afternoon as a front moves across the area. Winds will remain
less than 10 kt, and clouds will remain at VFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 50 69 52 / 0 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 46 64 49 / 0 30 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 70 45 62 50 / 0 30 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 40 54 43 / 10 10 50 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

177
FXUS64 KMRX 012341
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, Monday morning through late
afternoon.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Mostly zonal flow in place to start the period. A weak shortwave
moves through the flow and brings some rain showers into our area
tomorrow morning through afternoon. Most of the precip should be
north of I-40, with the best chances across northeast TN and into
southwest VA. A few light rain showers possible south of I-40 but
only slight chance POPs.

Tuesday through Thursday features mostly dry conditions across the
area along with warming temperatures as a ridge of high pressure
strengthens across the southeastern U.S. There are some slight
chance POPs in place on Thursday due to a weakening frontal
boundary moving into the area. Additionally, record high temps are
currently forecast at CHA and TYS on Thursday.

Model consensus shows the ridge breaking down by the weekend. This
will pave the way for an approaching system to make a push through
the area, bringing higher chances of more widespread rainfall. Storm
total QPF from Friday night through Sunday night shows roughly 0.5
to 0.75 inches across the area.

Overall, no hazardous weather expected at this time.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Low level dry air will be attempting to keep lower ceilings and
incoming rain tomorrow at bay, though light rain is likely at TRI
before moving away to the north. Sprinkles possible at TYS, with
rain less certain. Dry south of KTYS. Cannot rule out IFR
ceilings at TRI briefly associated with the rain during otherwise
MVFR conditions. A return to VFR at KTRI is likely before the end
of the period. Winds will remain generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 70 51 71 / 30 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 64 48 71 / 40 50 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 46 62 49 70 / 50 50 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 55 43 66 / 30 70 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

678
FXUS64 KMRX 021117 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
617 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, this morning into the
afternoon hours.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

A chance for rain will increase later this morning and into the
afternoon, as a system that developed over the Plains heads
eastward. Riding along a boundary to our south, the system will
send the heaviest precipitation just north of us. From
approximately I-40 and north, anywhere from a few hundredths to up
to around a quarter of an inch of rainfall can be expected. Cold
air damming is also expected to develop east of the mountains,
causing changing precipitation type and much colder surface
temperatures, but we should be just enough on the warmer side of
things, that the precipitation should remain mostly rain. WSSI
depicts this with all winter storm impacts from about southern WV
and north. Temperatures will be cooler today under cloudier
skies.

Tomorrow we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave trough moves in
to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are growing
differences in model output, but this could bring a stronger
system to the area with much better chances for rain. Thereafter,
Friday and into the weekend continues an unsettled weather pattern.
Sometime during the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much
stronger frontal system will develop eventually impacting our
region. We'll have to monitor this system and possible the priors
closely, as we heat up this week increasing our instability. Dew
points will be pushing into the 60s this weekend. SPC is already
highlighting Day 6 well west of our area as having a 15% chance of
severe weather.

On the brighter (warmer?) side of things, especially for those
that love warmer temperatures, tomorrow until the end of the
forecast period will begin another warming trend across the area.
By the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, low 80s are
possible for valley locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't
even average 60 degrees yet for early March, so we'll be seeing
temperatures around 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures appear
will cool off some on Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Midlevel clouds will be broken to overcast through the TAF period.
Some light rain is possible at TRI and TYS through the day, but
predominant VFR conditions are expected with the light precip.
Cigs may lower to low end VFR in the last 6 hours of this period.
Some strong winds aloft tonight may warrant the addition of LLWS
with later TAF issuances, but it seems too marginal to mention now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 52 71 52 / 20 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 49 71 49 / 50 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 65 50 70 50 / 60 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 45 67 44 / 80 20 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

763
FXUS64 KMRX 022337
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, continuing through the
afternoon.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Scattered light rain showers continue to traverse across the area
today brining with it mainly drizzle. We'll see a bit of a lull in
activity early in the afternoon before another band moves through
brining additional light rain. Cold‑air damming is expected to
develop east of the mountains, which may influence precipitation
type and surface temperatures, but conditions should remain warm
enough for precipitation to fall mainly as rain. Today will be the
"coldest" day of the forecast under these clouds with highs reaching
60's for many.

Drying begins the following day as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds aloft. The axis of precipitation is expected to stay
locked to the north, with dry weather continuing into Wednesday. By
Thursday, a more pronounced shortwave trough moves across the Ohio
Valley. Model differences are increasing, but this feature could
bring a stronger system with higher rain chances. An unsettled
pattern continues into Friday and the weekend. At some point during
the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much stronger frontal system
is expected to develop and eventually impact the region. This
system, along with the preceding ones, will need to be monitored
closely as warming temperatures increase instability. Dew points are
forecast to rise into the 60s over the weekend, which means if the
system moves further east we could see a chance for increased
thunderstorm activity.

The most "exciting" part of the forecast is trying to determine if
we'll break high temperature records... A warming trend begins after
the midweek drying period and continues through the end of the
forecast. By late week and into the weekend, valley locations may
reach the low 80s. For perspective, Knoxville’s average high for
early March is still below 60 degrees, meaning temperatures could
run about 20 degrees above normal. A cooldown appears likely by
Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri‑Cities Oak Ridge
03‑05 80 (1955) 78 (2022) 77 (2022) 78 (1955)
03‑06 82 (1956) 79 (2022) 79 (2022) 81 (1956)
03‑07 82 (2000) 80 (1983) 79 (1956) 80 (1956)
03‑08 81 (2000) 78 (1974) 78 (2000) 79 (2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Light rain showers are still crossing the mid-section of Tennessee
right now, so kept a mention in for rain at TYS and vicinity for
CHA. TAFs are mainly VFR, with the exception at KCHA, where
influence from low ceilings in Georgia are forecast to bring a
period of MVFR conditions to Chattanooga. A few southerly gusts
15 to 20 knots tomorrow afternoon as mixing tries to re-establish
before evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 72 52 79 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 72 50 78 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 50 71 51 76 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 68 46 73 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

993
FXUS64 KMRX 031112 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Showers exiting, but a slight chance possible later today
nearest the Kentucky and West Virginia border.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Light showers exiting to the north at this time. Most locations
yesterday only recorded a few hundredths of an inch, with some in
the tenth to two tenths range.

Today we'll continue to dry out as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
It is possible, however, that light precipitation falls in
locations closest to the KY and WV borders today as additional
moisture moves west to east. By around Thursday, a fairly
pronounced shortwave trough moves in to our north across the Ohio
Valley. Model consensus now shows we may miss most of the
precipitation from this system, as the low center tracks from MO
to MI to western PA and NY.

Thereafter, Friday and into early next week could be an active
weather pattern. The SE ridge will become suppressed by longwave
troughing with shortwaves cycling through. Sometime during the
weekend, possibly around late Saturday to Sunday, a frontal system
will develop eventually impacting our region. This will cool off
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. With how warm we'll be and
increasing humidity, we'll have to closely monitor this weekend
for potential thunderstorm activity. Dew points will be pushing
into the 60s this weekend, raising our instability. SPC is already
highlighting some of the weekend well west of our area as having
a 15% chance of severe weather.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week, will be increasing warmth
and humidity into the weekend. Today will begin another warming
trend, with low 80s possible for many valley locations by the end
of the week. Mid 80s aren't totally off of the table either.
Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees yet for
early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20 degrees
above normal.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR cigs at CHA will lift in the early afternoon with boundary
layer mixing. An increase in wind gusts will also occur in the
afternoon at CHA and TYS. Gusts will drop off in the evening.
Clouds are expected to increase again tonight, but likely at VFR
levels.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 53 78 56 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 50 77 55 / 10 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 51 76 56 / 10 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 46 72 49 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

120
FXUS64 KMRX 032343 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week
and into early next week, along with the return of a few
thunderstorms.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mostly dry conditions with a significant warming trend expected
through Friday. This is the result of strengthening high pressure off
the southeast coast.

Precipitation chances begin to increase Friday, and especially into
the weekend, as an approaching system flattens the ridge. The
frontal boundary looks like it may stall across the region
through Tuesday, keeping chances of precip in place. Record high
temps are currently forecast on Saturday but less confidence
compared to the Thursday and Friday records. This is due to the
anticipated increase in clouds and precip chances. In addition to
rain, Saturday through Tuesday will also feature slight chance for thunderstorms as well. Nothing really stands out at the moment
for any potential severe threat.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Persistent southwesterly low level flow will bring in low clouds
later on this evening and overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to
MVFR levels at KCHA after midnight, but guidance is pretty firmly
showing that KTYS and KTRI will remain VFR. Trended the TAFs
accordingly. Would expect all sites to return to VFR levels by
mid-morning tomorrow. Winds are forecast to remain below 10kt but
I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts into the low to mid
teens based on how deep mixing will be tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 51 75 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 71 49 77 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

018
FXUS64 KMRX 041114 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected later this week and through
the weekend.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend into early next
week. The threat for severe storms stay well to our north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Currently, a weak shortwave is moving over the Great Plains with
ridging in the east out ahead of it. A weak surface low will develop
and progress to the northeast into the Great Lakes towards Thursday.
Locally, this will just produce continued southerly flow with most
forcing or moisture staying to our north. Other than low-end chances
in the north, the region can expect to stay dry. Another, more
dynamic system will develop further north and west, due to a deeper,
more negatively tilted trough and stronger jet. Much of the better
forcing and dynamics will stay well to our north and west with
sufficient moisture for a return of rain to our area through the
weekend, especially on Saturday. With the upper and low-level jet
staying north, overall shear will remain around 25 kts or less with instability generally around 500 to 1,000 J/kg. This will certainly
support some chances for storms but with minimal threat for anything
strong or severe. The threat for mountain wave winds is limited
within both systems as the flow will be below 40 kts and also
possibly parallel to the terrain itself.

Aside from the showers and storms, broad southerly flow and height
rises will push temperatures to near or above record high values
late in the week and through the weekend. Record highs are listed
below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

Models are indicating another deep trough to our northwest early
next week, likely producing severe weather chances somewhere in the
central U.S. However, the result for our area will be additional
chances for rain and southerly flow keeping temperatures well above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR cigs have spread into all sites. Cigs will return to VFR in
the late morning to early afternoon. Cigs may return late in the
period at CHA and TYS, mainly at low VFR levels. Potential for
fog at TRI tonight if clouds do not spread in there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 57 81 58 / 0 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 55 80 58 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 78 57 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 50 76 54 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

843
FXUS64 KMRX 042356 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Very warm for the period, with high temperatures near or
exceeding daily records at times.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend. The chance
of severe storms still looks low at this time.

- Another significant round of showers and possible thunderstorms
may arrive by the end of the period Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy
skirting by to our northwest may brush our northwestern fringe
counties with a a shower later today or Thursday, but overall it
will be dry and warm across the area. High temperatures Thursday
are expected to be near or even exceed the daily record highs for
the date. The very warm theme is expected to continue for much of
the forecast period, with record highs looking to be under threat
Friday and Saturday and possibly again early in the work week,
although the amount of cloud cover and precipitation
coverage/timing will matter. Record highs are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

As for precipitation, moisture will be increasing and there may be
enough weak instability for isolated to scattered weak convection on
Friday, although most locations will stay precipitation free. A more significant chance for precipitation will arrive during the weekend
as a stronger short wave moves across the Great Lakes region and
briefly flattens the upper ridge. A weakening cold front will
advance toward our area from the northwest, but is unlikely to push
all the way through our area before retreating north. The better
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. LREF data suggests only around a 10 to 20%
chance of seeing at least 500 J/kg SBCAPE and 30+kts of 0-500mb bulk
shear together, so right now severe chances still look low. However,
we will have to monitor how this system unfolds for possible
increases in the severe threat.

How quickly the front moves back to our north will affect the amount
of precipitation coverage for Monday into Tuesday, but the NBM keeps
a chance for showers around both days. Models are indicating there
may be a more dynamic system approaching by the end of the period on Wednesday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
This system will bear watching, but is still much too far out to
have any confidence in the timing or details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at all
sites, with two caveats. Lack of pattern change and continued
moist southerly low level flow leads me to believe there's a
possibility more MVFR CIGS develop tonight despite guidance not
being as bullish. Confidence is low so will stick with SCT020-030
bases at all sites for now. The other caveat is that some
guidance does develop some fog at KTRI tonight. Kept a few hours
of 4SM in the TAF due to some high res guidance showing fog
development, and low temps being below crossover temps tonight,
but high clouds may limit development. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will be a bit gusty tomorrow as well,
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 81 58 83 / 0 10 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 79 58 82 / 0 10 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 53 78 58 81 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 75 54 78 / 0 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

749
FXUS64 KMRX 051111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- High temperatures near or above daily records are expected today
through most of the period.

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend
with the best coverage being on Saturday. Chances for strong to
severe storms still remain limited in our area.

- Another dynamic system is expected early to mid next week with
chances for showers and storms again. This system will be worth
watching.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, a weak system/shortwave is tracking to our northwest with
showers and storms ongoing. Locally, this has just led to southerly
flow and continually milder temperatures. This system will track off
to the east with moisture sufficient for low-end rain chances in the
north later today and into the evening. But the bigger story will be continuation of the recent warming trend as southerly flow and
height rises are expected. By Friday, a deeper trough and stronger
low will be noted over the Great Plains with continued southerly
flow and height rises across the region. Moisture and instability
will be sufficient for isolated to maybe scattered showers and
storms on Friday. But Saturday is when better coverage is expected
as divergence from the upper jet approaches from the north. Overall,
the latest data suggests MLCAPE to be around 500 to 1,000 J/kg but
with shear of 30 kts or less. This could support an isolated
stronger storm, but the overall forcing and 850mb flow remain
notably weaker than places to the north. Unseasonably warm
temperatures remain a big focus with Saturday potentially limiting
daytime heating due to shower and storm coverage.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

By Sunday, the boundary associated with the system to the north will
move into the region, keeping chances for showers and storms in the
area but likely focused further south. This will also moderate
temperatures down from the more abnormal highs of the previous days.
Heading into next week, another trough will deepen and track to our
north and west, leading to another increase in temperatures,
followed by a return of showers and storms. Currently, the better
forcing and dynamics still remain to our north and west but not as
far away as with the first system. There may be a slightly higher
chance of strong or severe storms, but model guidance is highly
uncertain at this time. The boundary will be pulled back further
north ahead of the system, but it remains uncertain how quickly the
front will be pulled north. Regardless, more record high
temperatures are likely on these days:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through this TAF period. Winds will
increase and become gusty at TYS this afternoon, possibly at TRI
and CHA as well but confidence is lower at those sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 58 83 63 / 10 10 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 53 79 57 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

551
FXUS64 KMRX 052350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Very warm for much of the period, with high temperatures
approaching or exceeding daily records at times over the next
several days.

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend
with the best coverage being late Saturday into Saturday night.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible but the chance
for severe storms still looks limited in our area.

- Another, possibly more dynamic, system is expected by mid week
with additional showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy is
skirting by to our northwest today and a few spots will see a
shower, but most locations will stay dry and it will be warm
across the area. The temperature at TRI is already near the record
high for this date as of 1 PM EST. The very warm theme is
expected to continue for much of the forecast period, with record
highs looking to be under threat Friday and Saturday and possibly
again during the Monday through Wednesday period, although the
amount of cloud cover and precipitation coverage/timing will
matter. Record highs for the warmer days are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

As for precipitation, moisture will be gradually increasing and
models suggest there will be enough instability for isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms on Friday, although most
locations will stay precipitation free. A more significant chance
for precipitation will arrive during the weekend as a stronger short
wave moves across the Great Lakes region and flattens the upper
ridge. A weakening cold front will advance toward our area from the
northwest and will push into our area Saturday night. The better
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Latest model soundings generally show
MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and effective shear less than 30kts as
the convection moves in. While a few storms may become strong to
severe late Saturday or Saturday night with damaging winds the
primary threat, the overall chance for severe storms still looks to
be on the low side. However, we will have to monitor how this system
unfolds for possible increases in the severe threat.

With the front in no hurry to exit our area Sunday, additional
showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected especially south
and east closer to the boundary which will likely stall just to our
southeast Sunday night. Not much drying will occur for early in the
week, and the NBM keeps scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
around both days. Models are indicating there may be a more dynamic
system approaching near the end of the period Wednesday into
Thursday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
This system will bear watching for the possibility of strong to
severe storms, but models are not in good agreement and it is still
much too far out to have any confidence in the timing or details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions should prevail overnight, but persistent southerly
moist flow may bring some MVFR CIGS to KCHA towards daybreak. Not
confident enough in the occurrence to include in the TAFs at this
time so will just stick with a mention of SCT020. Otherwise, some
SCT SHRA should develop towards midday or early afternoon.
Uncertainties about coverage before 00z tomorrow evening remain,
so have limited it to just VCSH at KCHA and KTRI for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 83 63 / 10 0 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 56 81 62 / 20 10 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 56 81 62 / 20 10 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 53 78 56 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

309
FXUS64 KMRX 060546
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected today and Saturday and then
again early to mid next week.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this
weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Showers and storms will return early to mid next week with
limited severe chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, a shortwave is moving away from our area to the northeast
with a deepening trough noted across the Rockies. Locally, ridging
remains in place, continuing the record warmth seen in recent days.
As this trough ejects into the Great Plains, a deepening surface low
will track into the upper Mississippi River Valley and eventually
into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Out ahead of this system, ridging
and southerly flow will continue to push temperatures higher, with
many seeing values in the 80s on Friday and Saturday, on par with
records:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

Aside from record heat, the focus will be on increasing rain chances
as moisture returns to the region, albeit still limited on Friday.
By Saturday, however, moisture will be more expansive and coincident
with the cold front associated with the low approaching the Ohio
River Valley. The better forcing and instability remain to our
southwest and also to our north, but guidance continues to suggest
MLCAPE reaching 500 to 1,000 J/kg area-wide and with deep-layer
shear potentially reaching 35 kts. The latest trend also shows less
coverage during the day on Saturday with a potential line arriving
later in the afternoon or after sunset. The lessened daytime
coverage will allow better heating, but if a line arrives later,
instability will be more limited. The latest trends and depicted
storm mode continue to suggest marginal severe potential, focused on
damaging winds. However, this will remain highly dependent on timing
and overall instabilty. By Sunday, this frontal boundary ends up
stalling along or just north of our northern border, keeping chances
for showers and storms elevated through the day. This will also
moderate temperatures back below record values.

By Monday, troughing will flatten out more, leading to a return of
more zonal flow to our area. The frontal boundary will also be
pulled back northward, increasing southerly flow and allowing for
another rise in temperatures back into record territory:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the southern
Plains with its downstream jet merging with flow to the north. This
will also produce another deepening surface low that follows a track
similar to the first one. The boundary pulled north will gradually
track towards our area, leading to another increase in showers and
storms. As with the first system, the better upper support remains
to the north and west, but the front may be sufficient for another
chance of strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be
worth keeping an eye on, but there is currently no notable risk in
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

An isolated shower or two is possible tomorrow late afternoon into
the evening hours, but not confident in impacts directly over the
terminals, so maintaining prior shift forecast as persistence. VFR
is expected to prevail otherwise, though there's a low probability
for MVFR CIGs near KCHA around daybreak. Winds will be light,
though a gust to 15 knots is conceivable during the afternoon,
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 82 61 / 30 30 60 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 62 81 61 / 20 20 60 80
Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 80 60 / 20 20 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 79 58 / 20 10 60 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

938
FXUS64 KMRX 062355
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures may be exceeded today and Saturday and
will be approached or exceeded again early to mid next week.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this
weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Showers and storms chances will increase again by mid week with
severe chances currently looking low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. There is enough instability around
today for isolated showers and storms, but most locations will be
dry for the remainder of today. After records were broken yesterday,
record highs are again likely exceeded today. The very warm theme
is expected to continue for much of the period into mid week,
with record highs looking to be under threat again Saturday and
likely to be approached or exceeded again during the Monday
through Wednesday period, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Record
highs for the warmer days are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

A better chance for showers and storms will arrive later Saturday
into Saturday night as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes
region which flattens the upper ridge, and a weak cold front pushes
southeast into our area. Guidance overall continues to suggest
MLCAPE values will generally be reaching the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
area wide and with deep-layer shear reaching 25 to 35 kts ahead of
the convection that moves in late Saturday or early Saturday night,
although a nighttime arrival would allow CAPE values to trend lower
before onset. CAMS generally tend to support the idea of a weakening
line moving in sometime late Saturday or early Saturday night well
out ahead of the front followed by additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms later in the night albeit with less convective energy
to work with, and right now the threat of severe storms still looks
marginal with damaging winds the primary threat as the initial line
moves in. However, this still has time to change based on timing and
how much instabilty will actually be available.

The weak frontal boundary will still be making slow progress
southeastward over our area Sunday, keeping chances for showers and
storms elevated. This will also moderate temperatures back below
record values for Sunday. Some drying may be working in at least to northwestern counties by the end of the day as the front edges to
our southeast.

Monday looks drier especially north, although proximity to the
stalled front will keep chances for showers and storms a bit higher
south. By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the
southern Plains and will eventually track across the Gulf states
Wednesday and Thursday. The stationary front to our southeast will
move back north Tuesday, then a cold front will move through our
area sometime around the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame. The
better upper support looks to stay off to our north and west, but
the forcing with the front may be sufficient for another chance of
strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be worth
keeping an eye on, but uncertainty is still high on the details with
this system that far out.

Friday currently looks drier and mild behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

There is a chance for MVFR CIGs tomorrow morning at CHA, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Isolated showers on radar are
dissipating. We may have to watch for some low level wind shear in
the early morning hours. Southwesterly winds will increase well
after daybreak tomorrow morning especially at TYS. Late tomorrow
afternoon, a line of showers and storms will approach from the
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 61 74 / 30 60 80 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 81 60 71 / 10 60 90 70
Oak Ridge, TN 62 79 60 70 / 10 60 80 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 79 59 66 / 10 50 90 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

234
FXUS64 KMRX 071151
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A line of showers and storms is expected to move through the
area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible, especially in western areas.

- Off and on chances for showers and storms continue Sunday
through Wednesday with Wednesday evening having the best chance
for storms.

- Near record heat is likely Saturday and then Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Currently, troughing and a downstream jet is well to our northwest
with a surface low moving into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
This system is an open wave with its warm front along the Great
Lakes and cold front extending into the Great Plains. Initially, the
region will remain under the influence of broad ridging and
southerly flow that will promote a continuation of record heat
during the day today:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

With initially drier air, much of the area will remain dry through
the morning and into part of the afternoon. The 850mb jet, while not
as strong as to our north, will still be in excess of 30 kts and
produce a breezy day area-wide. Wind gusts to 30 mph or greater will
be common but still likely below advisory criteria. By later in the
afternoon, moisture will advect from the southwest as the front
moves into the Ohio River Valley. While flow will be fairly
unidirectional, the environment will still consist of effective
shear reaching to 35 kts and SBCAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg. Low-level
shear, driven mostly by speed, will also reach 20 kts or greater.
The latest CAMs show a QLCS arriving to the Cumberland Plateau by
about 5 PM EST and then moving through central portions of the area
within 2 hours before exiting later in the evening. This timing will
lead to lessened instability than places to the north and west but
still with enough to support the marginal severe weather risk. The
850mb jet will only be around 30 to 35 kts during this time, but the
intensity of the line could certainly produce damaging winds,
especially in western portions of the area. Small hail is possible,
but instability will be diminishing in the growth region. Regarding
tornado potential, LCL heights above 1,000m and limited directional
shear will keep the threat minimal in our area.

Behind the main line, stratiform rain or even showers are shown to
linger overnight with the frontal boundary arriving just to our
northwest by Sunday. This will keep rain chances elevated on Sunday
with instability having largely pushed off to our southeast.
Temperatures will also be moderated back below record values. By
Monday, the flow aloft will become more zonal with a closed low
moving over northern Mexico. Downstream of this closed low will be a
jet of nearly 100 kts with the left exit region, pulling the front
back northward. This will promote another increase in rain chances
by the evening. On Tuesday, the jet merges with a broad upper jet to
the north, broadening southerly flow and WAA as another system will
develop and track to the Great Lakes region. Potential record
temperatures will also come back into view:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

The frontal boundary will gradually move into the area by Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night, leading to another chance for showers
and storms. Based on the model outputs and overall timing, this
environment would be more of a higher shear / lower CAPE scenario
than with the first system. As such, an earlier timing would be more
favorable for severe chances, but the latest trends keep this
largely to our west. It will be worth watching nonetheless. The
front will move through by later in the week, leading to a return of
cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

No significant changes. Winds aloft have weakened. Tacked in a
PROB30 late in the period at TYS and TRI to account for
uncertainties in overnight rainfall. Ceilings area wide are likely
to drop to MVFR conditions late in the period. A line of TSRA this
evening is likely to bring brief significant drops in conditions
as the storms pass over the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 61 74 58 / 60 90 60 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 61 72 56 / 60 90 70 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 71 55 / 70 90 60 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 59 68 52 / 50 90 70 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

095
FXUS64 KMRX 072338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A line of showers and storms is expected to move through the
area late afternoon through the evening hours. The most likely
timing is between 5 to 10 PM EST. Isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible, especially in western areas.

- Off and on chances for showers and storms continue Sunday
through Wednesday, with Wednesday evening having the best chance
for storms, some of which could be strong.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, but the well
above normal temperatures make a return Monday through Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Forecast for record breaking daily high temperatures remains mostly
on track, particularly for central and northern areas(already
surpassed TRI). Slightly enhanced cloud cover atop the southern
valley has CHA a tad behind hourly NBM trends, and it looks
increasingly likely temps will be shy of the daily record there.

Regarding the convective activity, showers and storms are currently progressing into central KY/TN. This activity is being driven by
an outflow boundary from previous nights convection as well as
increasing mid to upper level divergence & vorticity ahead of a
shortwave trough and associated cold front further upstream.

CAMs remain in pretty good agreement that most likely timing will be
between 5 and 10 PM EST. As the convection moves through the region
a southwesterly H85 jet between 30-35kts will aid in effective bulk
shear near 35kts and 0-1km shear near 20-25kts. Latest model derived
soundings depict SBCAPE values 800-1000J/kg. Primary hazard
associated with this activity will be strong to damaging winds,
followed by small hail. While a brief spin-up cannot be totally
ruled out, the most likely location for this would be along the
Plateau where terrain influence could help overcome unfavorable LCL
heights right along the leading edge of the convection. Overall, the
most favorable locations for strong to damaging wind gusts will be
along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor as HREF mean SBCAPE
values fall rather quickly as the line progresses into the
Appalachians.

Light rain is possible at times throughout the overnight and even
into Sunday as the cold front then progresses across the region, but
no significant weather is expected during this time. Sunday temperatures
will run cooler alongside light and westerly winds.

The cooler temperatures will be short lived as we rebound to well
above normal temperatures among increasing H5 heights Monday. The
chance for showers and a few storms will return with a southern
stream shortwave Monday night into Tuesday. A brief break in
precip is expected before focus turns to a more amplified system
bringing a return for the chance of strong to potentially severe
storm activity late Wednesday. Western and central Tennessee
Valley and portions of the Cumberland Plateau are highlighted
within the Day 5 SPC Convective Outlook. A stronger LLJ (40-45kts)
will promote a chance for gusty winds across the east Tennessee
mountains and adjacent foothills as well. A drastic cooling trend
in the realm of 30 degrees is expected post FROPA Thursday. Drier
conditions expected to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of mostly showers has moved into the region. The best
chance for lightning will be near CHA over the next couple of
hours. Rain will continue through around midnight for most of the
region. Another round of showers will be possible tomorrow
afternoon. Late tonight through tomorrow morning, MVFR CIGs are
likely, possibly continuing into the afternoon hours before
clearing out late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 73 56 78 / 100 50 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 70 54 76 / 90 60 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 69 52 76 / 90 50 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 67 51 72 / 90 60 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

630
FXUS64 KMRX 080631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
131 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

- Low confidence on additional rain showers through this morning.
A few scattered showers this afternoon. Rain chances to return
Monday night into midweek.

- Then, a gradual warming trend is expected early in the workweek
to Wednesday with near record temperatures possible again.

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to Wednesday
night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but this
time period is worth watching.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently, a shortwave is to our north with the upper jet extending
to our northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary has moved past
the Ohio River Valley. Showers continue to linger behind the initial
line, and this same trend will continue as the front arrives by mid
day. Instability will remain mainly south of our area with those
locations also being where rain lingers the longest as the front
progresses. This will also help to moderate temperatures back below
record high values of recent days. By Monday, the flow aloft will
become more zonal with another system tracking along southern
Canada. Southerly flow from this system will lead to WAA and help
pull the front back northward. A closed low will also move into
northern Mexico with the left exit region of its downstream jet
leading to upper divergence and a return of rain chances Monday
night into Tuesday. This will also further increase temperatures,
especially if coverage of showers and storms is lessened.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

Later on Tuesday into Tuesday night, the closed low will merge with
a deepening trough to the north with the trough's downstream jet strengthening. This will lead to rapid deepening of a surface low as
it moves into the Great Lakes region towards Wednesday. This will be
a dynamic system with strong upper divergence and 850mb jet in
excess of 50 kts. This will likely lead to a broad warm sector and a
high shear lower CAPE environment with storms firing ahead of the
approaching cold front. For our area, the question continues to be
timing, which the latest model guidance shows to be slightly earlier
than earlier runs did. At this time, the area of potential strong to
severe convection remains broad because of this timing uncertainty.
An earlier timing would lead to greater instability and overall
severe chances in our area. Many of the top CIPS Analogs suggest the
overall track to be supportive of severe weather in our area.
Regardless, this time is one of concern for a severe weather event
in the eastern U.S. with uncertainty as to the extent of impact in
our area.

Behind the front, cooler air arrives by Thursday with even a
transition to light snow in the higher elevations, depending on how
quickly moisture moves out. High pressure will then support drier
conditions with gradual height rises leading to an increase in
temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Most of the rain has evaporated from the area, and most high
resolution guidance keep appreciable rain low for the remainder of
the night. There's potential for scattered showers tomorrow, so
included PROB30s at TYS and TRI where low confidence exists. High
probability for MVFR ceilings for much of the period, with a more
pessimistic view this TAF set. There's a chance the clouds scatter
by 00z, but low confidence on this scenario. Light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 56 78 61 / 50 10 30 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 54 76 58 / 60 10 20 50
Oak Ridge, TN 69 52 76 58 / 50 10 20 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 51 72 51 / 60 10 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

544
FXUS64 KMRX 081750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Warming trend is expected through Wednesday with near record
temperatures possible again.

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to
Wednesday night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but
this time period is worth watching.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently overcast skies and a few weak showers, mainly across the Appalachians, are present as the front makes it's way across the
region. Temperatures are not dramatically cooler behind the
boundary, but based on upstream observations and cloud coverage have
brought down high temperatures for today... Which are still several
degrees above seasonal normals. As the day continues into tonight
we'll see clouds eventually break up and we could get a short window
of some sun peaking through at the end of the day for some. With the possibility of clearing skies and light wind, we could also see some
patchy fog develop overnight, especially if the clouds clear out
more than anticipated.

This work week another rapid warm up is expected with increasing low
level winds out of the south/southwest and strengthening riding in
the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. This will rocket
temperatures back up to near record highs Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

In addition to the near record highs, this will also bring in a
moist unstable airmass ahead of our next system, currently expected
Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strengthening surface low drives
out of the plains towards the Great Lakes Region being added by a
deepening trough in the mid/upper levels. This will also induce a
fairly strong LLJ over our region. All of this will combine to bring
in what looks to be a pretty strong front and line of severe
thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley. While it's still too early to
get into the specifics of severe ingredients...Models are generally
trending towards evening/overnight timing of this system in the
eastern Tennessee Valley... An overnight event, compared to a
afternoon event can have dramatic affects on the types of severe
weather experienced. However all modes of severe weather are still
on the table at this time. This will be the day to keep an eye on
for this forecast.

Regardless of the what severe weather does or does not occur
Wednesday into Thursday everyone will experience the dramatic cool-
down for Thursday morning through Friday morning. High temperatures
will likely drop 25 or more degrees on Wednesday compared to
Thursday. One way to tell we're in spring is that this dramatic
cooldown does not last very long. After a chilly start to Friday
morning (with parts of southwest VA possibly dipping below freezing)
we warm back up into the 60's for much of the Valley, and 70's over
the weekend. So don't put up the winter jacket yet, but also don't
put away the shorts either for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Low level clouds will stick around for most of the daytime hours. We
could see some breaks, but they will be the exception rather than
the rule. If the clouds clear out overnight we should see fog move
in, but certainty is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time,
and will need to see cloud coverage later this evening. Expect
gradually improving conditions after sunrise Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 76 57 78 / 10 10 40 50
Oak Ridge, TN 51 76 57 77 / 10 10 40 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 71 50 76 / 10 10 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

421
FXUS64 KMRX 090542
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again.

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday night into Tuesday and
then again by Wednesday night. Some storms could be strong to
severe Wednesday night, especially in western portions of the
area.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Currently, a shortwave has pushed off to our east with a stationary
frontal boundary over the area. Recent light rainfall will continue
to produce patchy dense fog early this morning. Through the day,
this shortwave will lift off to the east, providing more zonal flow
aloft and drier conditions. By this evening, a closed low will move
into northern Mexico with its downstream upper jet approaching from
the southwest of our area. Upper divergence in the left-exit region
will lead to vertical ascent with the front getting pulled back
northward. This will lead to a return of rain chances overnight and
into Tuesday. The flow remains fairly weak overall, but MLCAPE of
500 to 1,000 J/kg will support convection with even some potential
for stronger storms as mid-level lapse rates are indicated reach
near 7 C/km. In addition to the showers and storms, record heat
comes back into view with daily records shown below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By later on Tuesday, focus will turn towards the northwest as the
southern jet merges with the northern jet and a deepening surface
low progresses into the Great Lakes region for Wednesday. A strong
LLJ and broad warm sector will be in place across much of the
eastern U.S. ahead of its associated cold front. This will continue
to support a broad area of potential severe weather that has been
outlined in recent days. The latest NAM shows a likely QLCS moving
through the region from midnight to the early morning hours with
some others showing an earlier timing. During this time, the NAM
struggles to show instability of more than 250 J/kg but with strong directional shear, including in the lower levels. 850mb winds are
slightly weaker than some previous model runs showed, more in the 40
to 45 kt range but still more than enough for a severe risk with
sufficient instability. As the previous outlook showed, western
portions of our area have the greater chance for severe convection
due to decreasing instability. This will continue to be worth
watching in the coming days, especially when higher resolution model
guidance is available. But at this time, there is at least some
threat for damaging winds or an isolated spin-up tornado.

The front will move through the area around or before sunrise on
Thursday, leading to a return of much colder air sufficient for a
changeover to light snow in the higher elevations. Models certainly
differ on how long moisture lingers into the day, but there's likely
enough for light accumulations in the highest places. Otherwise,
high pressure will keep the region dry to end the week. There is
another system that will track along southern Canada Friday into the
weekend. But, the result for our area will be a return of southerly
flow as dry air remains in place. Temperatures will rise back above
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Patchy dense fog is beginning to form over much of the area
currently, with medium to high probabilities of IFR to LIFR
impacts early this morning across the valley. Fog will scatter
shortly after sunrise, leading to VFR conditions. There's
potential for a MCS cluster of TS late today to move across
northern AL into GA, so included a PROB30 at CHA in case of a
northern extension of that cluster. Otherwise the TAF looks rain
free. Light winds to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 79 64 / 30 70 50 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 57 77 64 / 10 60 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 76 63 / 10 60 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 48 75 57 / 0 20 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

371
FXUS64 KMRX 091734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Cluster of thunderstorms storms could impact Chattanooga and
surrounding areas this evening

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again.

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday night into Tuesday
and then again by Wednesday night. Some storms could be strong to
severe Wednesday night, especially near the plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog was stubborn to dissipate this morning with low level clouds
helping to keep it in place, which has caused some locations to warm
up rather slowly compared to others. Looking to our west we can see
a group of thunderstorms in Arkansas which will try and make it's
way eastward through the rest of the day. Based on CAMs and surface observations the storms look likely to stay closer to the 60+ dew
point line, which should keep them mostly out of southeast
Tennessee. BUT we could see the northern edge of these storms stay
north of the state line and impact Chattanooga, and surrounding
areas around (or just after) sunset. Environment north of the state
line looks marginal for strong storms, but cannot completely rule
out a rogue wind gust over 40mph if the storms become a bit more
linear. Another round of much lighter showers and possibly
thunderstorms will once again be possible along I-40 and south on
Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By late Tuesday, attention shifts to the northwest as the southern
and northern jet streams merge and a strengthening surface low moves
into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. A robust low‑level jet and an
expansive warm sector will extend across much of the eastern U.S.
ahead of the system’s cold front. This setup continues to support
the broad severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks.

Most models suggests a QLCS sweeping through the region between
midnight and early Wednesday morning. Instability remains limited,
generally below 250 J/kg. But there will be strong directional
shear, especially in the lowest levels. Winds at 850 mb appear
around 40-45 kt, which is sufficient to support a severe threat if
adequate instability is present. The western part of the forecast
area carries the higher risk for severe convection as instability
decreases farther east, and will likely occur later in the night.
At this stage damaging winds look like the primary threat, but an
isolated brief tornado remains possible.

The cold front is expected to move through around, or shortly before
sunrise Thursday, ushering in much colder air. This should allow for
a transition to light snow in the higher elevations. Model solutions
vary on how long moisture lingers into the day, but there appears to
be enough for light accumulations in the highest terrain. Otherwise,
high pressure builds in and keeps conditions dry through the end of
the week.

Another system will track across southern Canada Friday into the
weekend, but its main impact locally will be a return to southerly
flow while dry air persists. Temperatures will climb back above
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms may impact KCHA after sunset tonight with
strong winds as the primary hazard. Another round of weaker showers
and possibly thunderstorms will move in tomorrow to impact KCHA/KTYS
but isolated nature gives low confidence on timing of impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 78 65 81 / 70 50 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 77 64 81 / 60 50 30 40
Oak Ridge, TN 60 76 64 80 / 60 50 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 75 58 79 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

819
FXUS64 KMRX 100555
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
155 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Additional showers and storms move in before sunrise, no severe
weather anticipated.

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some storms
could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland
plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday morning,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then,
another warming trend is expected through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Additional showers and storms move into the area before sunrise.
This activity is associated with a very weak disturbance within
mostly zonal flow. The best coverage will occur through mid to late
morning, then showers and storms become more isolated through the
rest of the day as drier air moves in. No severe weather is
anticipated with this activity.

On Wednesday, a robust low‑level jet and an expansive warm sector
will extend across much of the eastern U.S. ahead of an upper-level
trough and cold front. This setup continues to support the broad
severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy
winds are expected ahead of the front with most areas seeing winds
gust from 20 to 30 mph. The highest ridgetops across the east TN
mountains will see winds gust from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a QLCS sweeping through the region sometime
between Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Because of the
timing, this will help to dampen our overall severe threat as
instability will be on the weaker side, and most likely elevated.
Elevated, non-surface based, instability means no tornado risk.
However, if we do maintain some surfaced-based instability, then
there will be a low risk for an isolated, brief, tornado. This is
due to the moderate to strongly sheared environment that will be in
place. As of now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as
any stronger storm could bring higher winds down to the surface. If
we do see any stronger storms, areas west of I-75 will have the
better chances due to earlier arrival time.

We clear out Thursday afternoon behind the cold front. High
temperatures are only expected to be in the lower to upper 50s, but
this is only around 5 degrees below normal. It will feel much colder
though due to our recent warm spell. Before precip exits, we could
still see a few light snow showers early Thursday morning across the
east TN and southwest VA mountains. Little to no accumulation is
expected along with no impacts.

We see a nice rebound in temps on Friday due to southerly return
flow, temps will be back above normal with highs in the low to upper
60s. Temperatures continue to warm through the weekend with temps
climbing back into the 70s. Then, another deep trough looks to
approach late weekend into early next week, brining more widespread
rainfall to the area. Temperatures will then drop back down to
around normal behind this next cold front.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few scattered showers appear likely in a few hours across the
southern two thirds of East Tennessee. Thunder is possible, but
not confident on where and how much to include explicitly in the
TAFs. Activity should diminish later this morning. IFR is
possible at KCHA this morning, as high clouds depart and low
clouds form in the wake of earlier rain. CIGs should be improving
into the late afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 64 81 46 / 60 20 20 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 64 81 44 / 50 30 20 100
Oak Ridge, TN 75 64 80 43 / 50 30 30 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 59 79 42 / 40 20 30 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

721
FXUS64 KMRX 101822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Warm through Wednesday with near record high temperatures
again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some
storms could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland
plateau.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday
or Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few showers are around this afternoon and there still could be
a few rumbles of thunder, although most locations will be dry this
afternoon. The very warm conditions continue today and tomorrow.
Some records will likely be approached or exceeded Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures for Wednesday:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

A weak impulse combined with modest lingering elevated instability
may brush mainly our northern and western half with a few showers
and thunderstorms overnight. On Wednesday, a robust low‑level jet
and an expansive warm sector will extend across the region ahead of
an approaching upper-level trough and cold front. This setup
continues to support the low end severe weather potential for our
area highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy winds are expected ahead
of the front with most areas seeing winds gust at least into the 20
to 30 mph range, with some spots including the higher east TN
mountains gusting from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a weakening QLCS sweeping through the region
sometime during Wednesday evening into Thursday night. With the
timing likely near or after sunset, this will help to dampen our
overall severe threat as instability will be on the weaker side.
Latest model data suggests MLCAPE values will be limited (generally
in the 250 to 500 J/kg range) ahead of the front. Shear will be
sufficient to suggests a low end tornado concern which will be
dependent on instability, so if we do maintain enough surfaced-based instability then there will be a low risk for a brief tornado. As of
now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as any stronger
storms could bring higher winds down to the surface. If we do see
any severe storms, areas west of I-75 will have the better chances
due to earlier arrival time/more available CAPE.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the
front. High temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change,
topping out in the 50s in most valley locations.

The cooldown will be brief as the surface high slides to our east
and low level flow again turns more southerly Friday. Highs Friday
will generally be in the 60s across the valley. The warming trend
will then continue into the weekend with highs in the 70s common
both days.

While the details are still uncertain that far out, models indicate
another deep trough and a stronger cold front will be moving in
sometime around Sunday night with another round of showers and
storms. This system will bear watching for possible mountain wave
winds depending on the low level jet orientation as well as the
potential for severe storms. Deep layer shear will likely be
significant but of course right now there are questions about how
much instability will be present (which will also depend partially
on timing). Current LREF data suggests a very low chance (around 10%
to 20%) of 30+ kts of deep layer shear combining with 500+ J/kg of
CAPE ahead of the front, but of course CAPE is often underforecast
this far out.

Drier and sharply colder air will push in behind this front for
Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures below normal to end out the
forecast period.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The low clouds will be lifting this afternoon, although a shower
may still affect the terminals especially TRI and TYS over the
next several hours. Additional showers will be around later
tonight/early Wed, especially TRI, with possible MVFR conditions.
MVFR level cigs look likely to be predominant at CHA for several
hours late tonight into early Wednesday as well. Winds will begin
to pick up and become gusty from the south and southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 45 58 / 20 20 100 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 80 43 53 / 30 20 100 20
Oak Ridge, TN 64 79 42 55 / 30 20 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 40 50 / 20 20 100 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

135
FXUS64 KMRX 110606
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
206 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high
temperatures areawide.

- Showers and storms this evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe, especially near the Cumberland Plateau. A conditional
low-end tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another warming
trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Mostly quiet through the rest of the night and into late morning.
However, a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Though
hazardous weather is not anticipated, if we do see any activity there is
a low chance that a storm could become strong enough to produce small
hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Confidence on storm development and
any hazards occurring are low. Latest HRRR isn't too excited, the
18Z RRFS showed some activity across northeast TN after sunrise but
the 00Z run backed off the intensity.

Near record to record high temps are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front along with breezy winds areawide. Valley
winds will gusts between 20 and 30 mph and the highest ridgetops
across the east TN mountains will see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Below
are the record high temps for today's date.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)


The main story however will be on a line of showers and storms that
moves into the area this evening. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe as the approach and move into our area from out of
middle TN. The better chances for any severe weather continues to be
west of I-75, closer to the Cumberland Plateau as this is where
instability will be highest. Instability, and thus resultant
strength of storms, are expected to weaken as we get further into
the evening/overnight hours. CAMs are in decent agreement on arrival
time and generally show storms moving onto the Cumberland Plateau
sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM EDT. 00Z HRRR sounding indicate there
will be surface based instability as storms first arrive, then
transitioning to elevated instability shortly thereafter. If this
occurs, we will have a short window where a low-end tornado threat
will be in place due to the moderately to strongly sheared
environment. In addition to favorable shear, 3CAPE values of over
100 J/kg are also supportive of a tornado environment. After storms
become elevated, the main threat will shift to a damaging wind
threat. Latest SPC day 2 outlook keeps most of our area in a 2% risk
for a tornado, with no intensity notated in their new intensity
categories. This means that if a tornado were to occur it would most
likely be on the weaker side. Any severe threat will subside after
midnight, with mainly showers expected thorugh the rest of night.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the
front. Very little to no snow accumulation is expected. High
temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, topping out in
the 50s in most valley locations.

Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday and into the weekend as see a
southerly return flow. Then, a deep upper trough and cold front move
into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing another round of
widespread rain and some storms. This system may also bring high
winds across the mountains. The severe threat remains low at this
point but we will continue to watch. Drier and sharply colder air
will push in behind this front for Monday and Tuesday, with
temperatures below normal to end out the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Main headline for the next 24 hours is the arrival of a line of
thunderstorms and rain late in the period, most likely entering
the valley at and after 00z. Still some uncertainty on overall
timing and intensity of the line, but further degradations in
conditions than shown are possible. Storms will have the potential
for severe wind gusts & small hail. Before storm arrival,
strengthening winds aloft will yield gusty S to SW winds at the
surface, with peak gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 45 58 38 / 20 100 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 43 53 34 / 20 100 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 42 55 35 / 20 100 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 40 50 30 / 20 100 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

418
FXUS64 KMRX 111723
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high
temperatures areawide.

- Storms this evening...Storms could be strong to severe,
especially near the Cumberland plateau. A conditional low-end
tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently another warm day ahead of the approaching strong front
moving east near the Mississippi river. Ahead of this front we're
getting strong ridging and winds out of the south/southwest
helping to drive temperatures well above normal. Depending on when
the front arrives we could see near record temperatures again
today.

These warm temperatures, in addition to a strengthening LLJ along
the front, will combine to bring a threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Current
guidance is indicating that the line of storms from the west will
move onto the Plateau between 4-7pm and continuing through the
evening then weakening and/or moving east of the mountains by around
midnight EDT. Area with the best environment to see severe
thunderstorms will be along the plateau and westward right as the
storms are moving in this evening. CAMs are indicating we'll see a
good amount of surface based CAPE right at the front end of the
event if storms are able to move in a bit quicker, possibly around
1,000+ J/kg at the peak in southeast TN. This does not last more
than a couple of hours as the evening turns to night and we
transition to more elevated instability, and at the same time it
really drops off. This combined with a LLJ of 40+ knots will be the
main driving factors behind the chance for severe thunderstorms.
Still believe the primary threat is damaging straight line winds of
60+ mph, primarily along the Cumberland plateau and western edge of
the Valley while there is still daylight and before the instability
drops off. If storms are able to maintain their strength/structure
into the central and eastern portion of the valley the LLJ will
still be present and the wind threat will persist. While the threat
for tornadoes is very low, the 30 knots of 0-1km shear, low level
CAPE being present (for a time), and LCLs around or possibly below
1km indicate that the threat is present. Most CAMs do not indicate
notable updraft helicity in the eastern Tennessee Valley, but the
environment suggests that an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled
out... If the line of storms is able to move in faster than forecast
the severe threat increases, but if it holds up even just a couple
of hours slower, then the tornado threat (and overall severe threat)
looks to decrease. Will need to be aware of the weather this evening
for sure.

After the storms and front moves through we'll see a quick drop in temperatures on the backside, enough to possibly produce a brief
window of snow, especially in the higher elevations early Thursday
morning before sunrise. With the warm surface temperatures the past
several days and the dry air moving in quickly behind the system,
it's going to be hard to see any accumulations outside of the peaks
of the mountains and ridge-lines. High temperatures will be a bit
below normal for a change, topping out in the 50s in most valley
locations.

Temperatures quickly warm back up Friday and into the weekend as we
see southerly return flow... But not for long as a deep upper trough
and cold front move into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing
another round of widespread rain and some storms. This system may
also bring high winds across the mountains. The severe threat
remains low at this point but we will continue to watch. Drier and significantly colder air will push in behind this front for Monday
and Tuesday, with sub-freezing temperatures area-wide Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening,
quickly dropping flight conditions once the onset hits. Medium to
high confidence on the timing, but lower confidence on the exact
observations once it moves through. Expect rain to persist for
hours after the initial line, with lower flight categories through
most of the night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Brief MVFR this morning at KTRI should return to VFR in the next
two hours. Breezy conditions on tap today, with peak gusts to 25
knots, 30 knots at KTYS. Best timing estimate still holding for a
line of leading TS this evening, followed by stratiform rain
through the end of the period. Brief periods of IFR possible
during initial TS followed by MVFR conditions during the steady
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 57 37 66 / 100 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 53 34 64 / 100 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 54 34 63 / 100 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 49 29 61 / 100 50 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

430
FXUS64 KMRX 120549
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Light snow accumulation probable across highest ridgetops East
TN and southwest VA mountains later this morning. Brief
changeover to snow also expected for some valley locations.

- Much colder today, warming trend Friday into the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday
or Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing
temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The severe threat ended several hours ago and light to moderate rain
showers will persist across the area through the rest of the night,
along with continued breezy winds. The main story over the next few
hours will be the surge of colder air that moves in later this
morning, transitioning rain showers over to snow across the east TN
and southwest VA mountains. Some valley locations, along with the
northern Cumberland Plateau, will likely see a changeover as well.
NAM soundings show this occurring between 09 and 12Z. This aligns
very well with the latest HRRR hourly precip-type output.

Valley locations east of I-75 and north of I-40 will have the better
chances to see this brief window of snow. However, these areas are
not expected to see any accumulation due to the recent warm spell
and thus warmer ground temps. The highest elevations across the east
TN mountains may see 1 to 2 inches, while isolated 0.5 to 1 inch
amounts are possible across the mid elevations. Isolated 0.5 to 1
inch amounts are also possible across the mountains of southwest VA.
Lower elevations across southwest VA and extreme NETN may see a
dusting. Latest NBM probs for greater than 0.5 inches of snow across
the East TN and southwest VA mountains ranges between 60 to 70%.
Models show the precip exiting east around 10 AM EDT. The window for
snow will be brief, but once the changeover occurs, moderate snow
rates are expected across some areas, and perhaps even some heavy
rates as well. Areas that see the moderate, to possible heavy snow
rates, will see reduced visibilities.

Skies will clear this afternoon, but with lower elevation high temps
only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The mountains will stay in the 30s
and 40s but with wind chills in the teens due to the continued
gusty winds.

Dry weather and a warming trend is expected Friday through Sunday,
with highs back in the low to mid 70s. Then, more widespread rain
and possible storms roll in Sunday night into Monday ahead of
another cold front and deep upper trough. Some storms could be
strong, depending on how much instability is in place. We will
continue to keep an eye on this system as it approaches.
Additionally, depending on the strength and alignment of the LLJ, a
mountain wave event is possible Sunday into Monday morning across
the East TN mountains and foothills.

Much colder air is expected Monday and Tuesday behind the cold
front. Overnight lows will be in the 20s on Monday and Tuesday
night. High temps in the low to mid 40s are expected on Tuesday. We
warm back up into the 50s on Wednesday as the deep trough lifts off
to our northeast and high pressure begins to nose back in from the
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Band of steady rain to continue to move through the region
overnight tonight, front seems a little late to arrive versus
earlier TAFs so pushed out the wind pivot a couple hours. Rain
should be ending around 12z for KCHA and KTYS, rain to changeover
to snow at KTRI and end around 15z. Clouds are forecast to depart
not long after and result in rapid improvement to VFR. Gusty
northerly winds will weaken by or after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 37 66 41 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 34 64 40 / 30 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 34 63 40 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 29 61 36 / 50 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

489
FXUS64 KMRX 121726
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Cooler today, warming trend Friday into the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing temperatures

- Cold temperatures for the first part of next week, getting back
to near normal for the second half.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Currently a chilly day out there with temperatures in the 30 or 40's
with a brisk north/northwest wind. Clouds have almost completely
cleared out, and the sun will battle against the northerly winds and
we'll likely end up around 5 degrees below seasonal normals today. Temperatures trend upward tomorrow through Sunday with surface high
and increasing heights in the mid levels.

We take a dramatic turn back towards winter Sunday into Monday as a
strong trough and surface low swing through the Ohio Valley. This
will bring with it widespread rain and behind the front we will get
much colder. We may see temperatures drop fast enough that if this
is an overnight frontal passage we could see a brief switchover to
snow on the backside of the precipitation behind the front. Still a
bit of a ways out, but as of right now light accumulations may be
possible in the horseshoe of the Appalachians, southwest VA, over
into the northern Cumberland Plateau.

Cold temperatures stick around for the first half of the week with
lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning likely dropping well below
freezing. So anyone who got ambitious to start a garden early this
year will need to keep these cold temperatures in mind next week.
Slow warming trend will finally begin on the second half of the week
getting back to seasonal normals on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Clouds continue to exit the region and we should be SKC in within
the first couple of hours of the TAFs. Breezy conditions will
continue until the inversion sets up overnight when winds should
become much calmer. During the day tomorrow expect winds to pick
back up, but less gusty compared to today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Morning rain to mixed precipitation and changeover to snow north
of Knoxville will end over the next 2-3 hours or so as the shield
of precipitation steadily moves eastward. Clouds will scatter not
long after. VFR skies thereafter with winds steadily weakening,
winds tonight will be calm under clear to mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 63 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 34 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

060
FXUS64 KMRX 130554
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Gusty SW winds today through the TN Valley.

- A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night/Monday
morning; potential impacts are gusty mountain wave winds and strong showers/storms.

- Very cold temperatures behind the front for the first part of next
week, approaching record lows Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A strong low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and high
pressure across the Deep South today will produce gusty SW winds up
the TN Valley. The NAM shows winds at the top of the boundary layer
of 30-40 kt, so surface gusts of 30+ mph are possible at times,
particularly in the central TN Valley where SW winds tend to get
channeled through the valley. After the winds subside near sunset,
quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the week with surface
high pressure across the OH/TN Valley region and a nearly zonal
mid/upper level flow. Temperatures will trend warmer through the
weekend as the high shifts off the Atlantic coastline and the upper
flow amplifies as a trough digs into the Plains.

The approaching shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt as
it moves toward the MS Valley, resulting in a strong cold front and
a rapidly deepening low over the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system,
a tight pressure gradient will develop across the Appalachians on
Sunday. The setup appears to indicate the potential for a low end
mountain wave wind event, with a S-SE LLJ of 40-50 kt indicated by
the models Sunday night. A convective line is likely to cross the
area Sunday night. The lack of instability with the overnight timing
will be a limiting factor for the potential for severe storms, but
the strong winds aloft could pose threat of near severe wind gusts
in the highly dynamic environment.

Temperatures will likely be falling through the day on Monday as the
cold front sweeps through in the morning. The upper trough
transitions to a closed low and bring a potent shot of cold air from
central Canada into the region. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning
will drop well into the 20s, which will be within a couple degrees
of record lows at some locations. Sub-zero wind chills will be
possible in the mountains. Very cold temperatures continue through
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some moderation on Wednesday as the
upper trough axis shifts east of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low level wind shear will be a concern early morning through mid
morning. By mid to late morning, southwesterly winds will become
gusty especially near TYS and TRI. Winds will subside around
sunset tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 41 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 63 39 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 36 66 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)