AWUS01 KWNH 191321
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-191918-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
920 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia/far southern DelMarVa Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191318Z - 191918Z

Summary...A focused areas of nearly stationary convection has
produced spots of 2.5-5 inch rainfall totals across the far
southern DelMarVa Peninsula this morning. Additional totals of
3-5 inches cannot be ruled out. Localized/isolated inundation is
expected through at least 19Z.

Discussion...Slow-moving convection has evolved across the
southern DelMarVa this morning. The storms are embedded within a
relatively focused area of low-level convergence just east of a
weak surface low near PHF/Williamsburg, with low-level easterlies
maintaining moisture/buoyancy against a more stable airmass across
much of Virginia. Weak/modest kinematics were supporting slow
cell movement, and spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS with the most dominant activity. A few flood
impacts have also been observed near the Accomack, VA area this morning.

Although the spatial extent of the flash flood threat is fairly
localized, the slow evolution of meso-to-synoptic-scale features
supporting heavy rainfall is a bit concerning. Heavy rainfall
could persist in this regime through 19Z, with additional 3-5 inch
rainfall totals possible. Models suggest that the convergence
axis/low supporting heavy rainfall will gradually migrate westward
through midday, which may temper the heavy rain threat eventually.
Local impacts are expected to continue and may worsen while heavy
rainfall persists.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38167536 37587545 36727585 37217686 37937655
38137597

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)