ACUS01 KWNS 261154
SWODY1
SPC AC 261153

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern
Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and
across the central High Plains and much of Montana.

...Northern Plains...
Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and
associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature
tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling
aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and
moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered
high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move
into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely
grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized
severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for
this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across
eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the
main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two.

...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region...
A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will
result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL
into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid
conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts
of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon
thunderstorms possible.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271139
SWODY1
SPC AC 271138

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great
Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of
the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern
North Carolina.

...Northern MN This Morning...
A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the
Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind
gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening
on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense
cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing
vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging
winds or hail for awhile this morning.

...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across
ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an
associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will
result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values
of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the
development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late
afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and
perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After
that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main
concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into
central WI.

...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from
parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level
lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will
limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be
capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds.

...MT...
Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of
central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to
inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late
afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291204
SWODY1
SPC AC 291203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the
central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa.
Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over
western areas.

...CO/NE/IA...
Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US,
with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the
southern Rockies. Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO
will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms
off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will
be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and
winds aloft. Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty
winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively
more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an
organized MCS across NE/western IA. This activity may persist well
into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...WY/MT...
Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the
Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies. This will lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT
and northern WY. Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong
daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with
sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization.
Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds. As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a
greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop
through the evening.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 010601
SWODY1
SPC AC 010559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least
isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and
surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia.

...High Plains vicinity...
Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the
central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and
evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to
transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region,
and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg)
expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level
flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt.

Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain,
and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to
move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible
initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time,
which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe
gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening.

A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO,
where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of
severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High
Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat
greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated
coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will
also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will
relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong
storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the
northern Rockies.

...Carolinas into Georgia...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the
eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a
cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the
Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift
will move southward ahead of the primary front.

Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW
(greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential
for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in
some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas
of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of
the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and
placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities
may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused
corridor of wind-damage potential.

...Northeast TX vicinity...
Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from
central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests
a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX,
associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be
quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed
for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related
enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection
later today.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021954
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central
and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats.

...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions
appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as
thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along
a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details).
These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to
suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will
undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours
with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show
disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more
predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will
be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where
the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher
wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and
into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight.
An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from
the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the
Great Basin and into KS.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range
this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional
storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone
draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High
Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25
to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing
by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W
parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support
supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the
convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary
hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist
for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level
southerly flow increases.

It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening
with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into
the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts
will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm
morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread.

...Northern High Plains...
Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is
forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern
MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be
potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph).

...Southeast...
Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and
ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm
development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL
Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse,
multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may
yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets
of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening.

...Northern Great Basin...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV
border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and
mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC
period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a
risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041258
SWODY1
SPC AC 041256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and
tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Early morning surface analysis shows upper 50s dewpoints in place
across eastern CO, western KS, and western NE, with slightly lower
dewpoints across the NE Panhandle. Moist, southerly low-level flow
will help increase dewpoints across the region throughout the day,
likely resulting in upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints during the
afternoon despite strong heating and boundary-layer mixing. This
should result in a strongly buoyant but minimally capped airmass
across the region by the late afternoon. Additionally, low-level
southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels,
resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an
overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing
mechanism for convective initiation is uncertain.

Upper ridging that currently extends from the Southwest into the
northern High Plains is expected to persist throughout the day, with
heights likely rising across the central High Plains. A shortwave
trough currently moving through the Great Basin is expected to move
within the northern periphery of this ridging, reaching the central
Rockies by this afternoon. Even so, given that heights are forecast
to rise across the central High Plains, the downstream influence of
this wave into the central High Plains will likely be minimal. This
overall lack of larger scale ascent leads to uncertainty regarding
storm coverage since more mesoscale factors, such as low-level
convergence along the lee troughing and weak low-level upslope flow,
will be the mechanisms for convective initiation. High-resolution
guidance offers varied storm coverage, with more recent HRRR runs
(i.e. 06-08Z) keeping the area largely free of storms versus earlier
runs (i.e. 00Z) which show scattered coverage. However, these drier
and less convective HRRR runs appear to be outliers compared to all
the other available guidance, and the general expectation is that
low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hill
vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation.

As mentioned previously, the overall environment supports supercells
capable of large to very large hail and strong gusts. Any supercells
that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend
towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt
low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these
clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where
damaging winds will be possible.

...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana...
Shortwave trough currently moving through southern OR is forecast to
continue northeastward through the northern Rockies today and
tonight, while becoming increasingly negatively tilted. Ascent
attendant to this wave will interact with a modest buoyant airmass
from central ID into central MT, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Initially more cellular storms are
expected across the higher terrain of central ID and western MT with
eventual cold pool amalgamation resulting in one or two
eastward/northeastward progressing clusters across central and
eastern MT. Some hail is possible with the more cellular storms, but
damaging gusts appear to be the greater severe risk. Sufficient
severe storm coverage is anticipated across central and eastern MT
to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated
thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast
CO/northeast NM. The thermodynamic environment here will be similar
to areas farther north, with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
40-50 kt of effective shear anticipated. A supercell mode is
expected initially with any storms that mature, with large hail,
damaging gusts, and a brief tornado possible. Storm maintenance into
the OK/TX Panhandles is possible, particularly given the
strengthening low-level jet.

...Central/Southeast Texas...
A decaying MCS continues to push southward/southeastward across
central TX at 35 kt. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible
with this system over the next hour or two, but warming cloud tops
and lowering echo tops suggest this system will continue to weaken.
Additional storm development is possible along the western portion
of the outflow, but low-level stability should mitigate updraft strength.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large
hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this
evening.

...Northern Plains...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the
low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse
rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning,
perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists
and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a
damaging gust or two.

Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in
an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD
eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and
sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave
trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level
convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should
both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this
afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for
supercells with the initial development, with large hail and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow
may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level
shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern
across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level
temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts.

One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern
periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based
as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends
and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern
ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible
within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger
gusts as well.

A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level
westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a
east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible
with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level
stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential
with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA,
and southwest MN.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight
across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Scattered
damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
An extensive MCS which produced numerous severe wind gusts across ND
earlier this morning has recently weakened across northern MN. While
occasional strong to locally damaging gusts may still occur in the
short term, this convection should continue weakening through the
rest of the morning as it moves into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. In the wake of this activity, an upper trough/low will
continue advancing eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains
towards the Upper Midwest through the period. At the surface, a weak
low over central SD this morning should develop northeastward to
northern MN by this evening, while a trailing cold front advances
southward across the northern/central High Plains.

Outflow from the morning convection may act as a pseudo warm front
and focus for renewed intense thunderstorm development later today
across parts of central/northern MN. The southern extent and
location of this boundary by this evening remains somewhat
uncertain. Even so, a rather moist and strongly to extremely
unstable airmass will be present east of the cold front and south of
the outflow boundary by late this afternoon across the upper MS
Valley. It still appears probable that additional surface-based
convection may develop by late afternoon/early evening across
eastern ND/northwest MN and vicinity as large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough/low overspreads the warm sector.

While stronger flow aloft may tend to lag the surface cold front to
some extent, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear to
support organized updrafts, including supercells with some large
hail threat. Given a large degree of boundary-parallel flow aloft, a
quick linear transition should occur this evening, with a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds. A narrow window for a couple of
tornadoes may exist across parts of MN, mainly this evening
along/near the residual outflow boundary where effective SRH may
become locally enhanced with a gradual strengthening of a southerly
low-level jet. Otherwise, the threat for damaging winds may continue
through tonight across parts of the upper MS Valley so long as any
MCS that develops can remain surface based. Given the potential
effects of the ongoing morning convection, confidence in a corridor
of more concentrated wind potential remains too low to include
greater severe probabilities with this update.

...High Plains...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/north of a cold front
in the western Dakotas. This activity may pose an isolated hail
threat given ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear. The potential
for additional thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across the
central High Plains either along or behind the front in a low-level
upslope flow regime remains unclear. A conditional risk for
supercells with associated large hail threat is still apparent, but
overall coverage of intense convection may remain quite isolated.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, high-based convection
is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed
boundary layer. Deep-layer flow and related shear will generally
remain weak, but outflow-driven clusters may still be capable of
localized severe gusts.

...Northern Lower Michigan...
Similar to yesterday, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern Lower MI
and vicinity, along the northeast periphery of the substantial
reservoir of instability over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some
updraft organization, with a threat for occasional hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101236
SWODY1
SPC AC 101234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may
also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes.

...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of
eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV.
While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past
few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification
through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts
of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per
early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating
should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate
instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and
vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing
cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging
winds may occur if it develops and can persist.

Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are
occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an
isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to
diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually
weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as
daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak
across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still
occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should
result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the
central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep
mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again
overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This
will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in
tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over
the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak
mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO
moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts
is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with
associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High
Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft,
and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for
severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this
evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across
parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and
northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing
this potential.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats.

...20z Update Front Range...
Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher
terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough
shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon.
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will
support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale
growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into
parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther
north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will
continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools
deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less
than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts
of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover
the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info.

..Lyons.. 08/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

...CO/KS...
Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead
of this trough will aid in the development of scattered
thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon,
with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample
low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS
to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft
for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an
increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening.
A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant
outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK.

...MO/IL/WI...
A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast
IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit
overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds
could occur with the strongest cells.

...Southeast AZ...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening
thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a
hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131239
SWODY1
SPC AC 131238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains...
The primary upper trough will remain over western/central Canada
today, with quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow continuing over much
of the northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A
subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough over parts of ID/western MT
this morning associated with ongoing weak convection is forecast to
advance eastward towards eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas by
early this evening. Gradually warming low/mid-level temperatures and
a stout cap will likely hinder surface-based convective development
across much of the northern/central Plains until mid to late
afternoon at the earliest. Still, the modest large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching shortwave trough may be sufficient
in tandem with robust daytime heating and localized orographic
effects near the Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

Modest low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today
along/east of a surface lee trough. Initially high-based convection
across the northern/central High Plains could pose an isolated
threat for mainly severe gusts as it continues eastwards towards
greater low-level moisture and MLCAPE. The best potential for a more
focused corridor of severe winds and isolated large hail still
appears generally along/east-southeast of the Black Hills towards
central SD and perhaps north-central NE this evening into the early
overnight hours. Here, moderate instability and deep-layer shear
should overlap with a very well-mixed boundary layer, supporting a
severe wind threat with any cluster that can become established amid
a gradually strengthening low-level jet. Some uncertainty still
remains regarding this potential, however, as low/mid-level
temperatures (around 850-700 mb) are forecast to remain quite warm.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will experience the
glancing influence of upper troughing advancing eastward over
Ontario/Quebec today. A moist low-level airmass is already in place
ahead of a weak surface front extending southwestward from the Great
Lakes into the Midwest. Although lapse rates aloft will remain poor
through the afternoon, diurnal heating ahead of ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning should promote weak to locally moderate
instability from New England to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Generally
modest mid-level flow (around 15-25 kt at 500 mb) should tend to
limit deep-layer shear given weak winds at low levels. Even so,
loosely organized clusters may still pose some threat for isolated
damaging winds this afternoon and early evening as convection
spreads eastward amid a boundary layer characterized by steepened
low-level lapse rates.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141236
SWODY1
SPC AC 141234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the
northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this
morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has
remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it
could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given
weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear
whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave
trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass
across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but
capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a
conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust
thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk
across southern MN for this possibility.

Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to
generally remain along/north of the international border as they
continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong
mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation
glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly
mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this
afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the
front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints
potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early
evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid
in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon.

The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the
front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward
extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will
remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level
convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to
initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into
northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can
be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large
hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some
potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains
apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater
severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with
eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer
occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain.

Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High
Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater
instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become
capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally
severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest
deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with
southward extent.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181236
SWODY1
SPC AC 181235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail
and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern
Plains through tonight.

...IA/WI/IL...
A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this
morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for
considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of
eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm
into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft
for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current
activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today.
Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic
zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this
scenario.

...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS...
Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the
foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated
storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black
Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will
also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These
storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before
weakening.

...MO/AR...
Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and
much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures
reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep
low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest
storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 182000
SWODY1
SPC AC 181959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail
and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern
Plains through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the
passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization.
Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder
probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations.

..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/

...Mid MS Valley...
Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from
extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and
north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving
quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is
expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed
is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern
WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but
heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to
very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon.

Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it
impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest
the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across
southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow,
backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists.
Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential
for this area.

...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains...
Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the
foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated
storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black
Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest
mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging
covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough
for hail production with the initial development before these
high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with
time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant
threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening.

...MO/AR...
Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across
central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s
are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong
mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong
buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around
2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized
multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281251
SWODY1
SPC AC 281249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat,
are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to
the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the
adjacent High Plains.

...Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex...
Showers/thunderstorms are prevalent this morning across
northern/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks to the north-northeast of
a warm front. Within a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow
aloft, a shortwave trough will continue to dig southeastward from
the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks by this evening. Related
dynamical response and the early day convection will shunt the front
southward later today, with ample heating/moderate destabilization
on the southwest flank of this boundary.

While mid-level temperatures are seasonally warm (-4C at 500 mb),
and lapse rates are not that steep, severe hail and damaging wind
gusts can be expected with the more robust convection as general intensification occurs by mid/late afternoon. A few initial
supercells may occur, and some tornado risk could also exist with
convection immediately along the boundary and east of the weak
surface front. Clustering/upscale-quasi-linear growth should occur
by early evening as storms progress southeastward and continue to
pose a damaging wind risk for a time this evening.

...Eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains...
The large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably as
upper ridging will hold across the southern/central Rockies. While
mid-level flow is not that strong across Colorado, low-level upslope
flow is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development
as boundary layer heats later this afternoon. This activity will
spread southeastward with an attendant risk for isolated severe hail
and gusty winds.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/28/2025

$$
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