ACUS01 KWNS 251255
SWODY1
SPC AC 251253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across
much of North Dakota.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will
move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward
across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions
ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These
storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early
evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions
will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak
lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid
in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters
appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model
guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward.
However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity
will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally
damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will
hopefully help better focus this threat area.

...KS/MO...
A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a
convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of
the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening.
Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the
southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe
threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
the main concern.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311238
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail
producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.

...High Plains...
A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US,
with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal
moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of
afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells
will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain
before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical
shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient
for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and
far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south
of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to
moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of
the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with
locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern.

...ID/Western MT...
A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV
lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be
capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311953
SWODY1
SPC AC 311951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other
severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends. Low-end/5% risk
probabilities were expanded slightly across portions of the northern
Rockies where recent observed dewpoint depressions and short-range
forecast soundings show low-level thermodynamic environments
favorable for strong/severe downburst winds and GOES imagery shows
deepening convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See
the previous discussion below and MCDs #1853 and #1854 for
additional details.

..Moore.. 07/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/

...Mid Atlantic Region...
Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a
swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an
extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing
17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in
temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to
the east of the Fall Line.

An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to
progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual
southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid
afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of
the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt
upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form
of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures.
Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered
50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe
concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening.

...High Plains...
No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave
ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into
the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data
depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and
northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and
along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm
development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk
of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading
onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this
region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient
supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two
may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears
most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A
gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring
severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm
coverage and outflow increases during the evening.

...ID/Western MT...
A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward
through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent
attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations
will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late
afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will
promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts
(60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges.

...AR/LA...
Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity
of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very
moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few
stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and
pockets of wind damage.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091249
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple severe/damaging wind swaths should occur today centered on
parts of Iowa, northwest Illinois, Wisconsin, and the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Large to very large hail will be possible
across parts of eastern Colorado and vicinity this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest into the Missouri Valley...
A small but intense bowing cluster has produced numerous severe
gusts/damage reports (some 75+ mph) in a narrow corridor early this
morning across south-central NE to western IA. This convection
should continue east-northeastward across parts of central/northern
IA through the rest of the morning, with an enhanced southwesterly
low-level jet providing ample moist inflow. A very unstable airmass
remains in place ahead of a cold front across this area, with MUCAPE
around 3000-3500 J/kg. This large reservoir of buoyancy should
continue to support a severe/damaging wind threat with this cluster
into parts of central/northern IA for at least the next few hours.
See Mesoscale Discussion 1911 for more details on the short-term
severe threat associated with this bowing complex.

Additional thunderstorms have developed along/near the cold front
across a broader portion of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
It still appears probable that multiple swaths of severe/damaging
winds may occur through the afternoon and evening across parts of
these regions as the airmass ahead of these thunderstorms gradually destabilizes. With rich low-level moisture already in place, strong
to extreme instability should once again develop by this afternoon.
While stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will tend
to lag the cold front, they should still be sufficient to support
organized convection, mainly linear clusters. Some adjustments have
been made to the Slight Risk to account for the ongoing severe
thunderstorms in IA, as well as additional activity forecast to
occur through the afternoon and evening. The potential for
additional robust convective development tonight across parts of the
MO Valley remains unclear as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
once again. Regardless, have maintained severe probabilities across
southeast NE and vicinity for this possibility.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A cold front should become nearly stationary by this afternoon
across the south-central High Plains. A favorable low-level,
post-frontal regime for severe convection is expected to develop
across eastern CO by late afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear
will likely support scattered supercells capable of large to very
large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two
mainly this afternoon into the evening. Across the southern High
Plains, high-based convection may again develop across parts of
eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. This activity could pose a
isolated threat for severe gusts given a very well-mixed boundary layer.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161958
SWODY1
SPC AC 161957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT OVER PART OF SD...AND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into
tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into the Midwest
and Great Lakes regions.

...20Z Update...
The prior forecast reasoning remains valid. Severe probabilities
were reduced in parts of northern/central Wisconsin where prior
convection has stabilized the boundary layer. Elsewhere, only minor
changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on
current observational trends. See the previous discussion as well as
MCDs 1965/1966 for additional information.

..Wendt.. 08/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025/

...Upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes
Region...
An expansive MCS continues to move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, with a well-defined MCV evident in radar imagery over the
central WI/MN border vicinity. This MCS has continued to gradually
weaken throughout the morning, but a few strong updrafts persist
along its southeastern periphery over central WI. This portion of
the MCS is on the far northeastern periphery of the plume of steeper
mid-level lapse rates that extends from the northern/central High
Plains across the central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. This
plume is observable in the 12Z sounding from DVN and ILX, which
sampled 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.8 and 7.2 deg C per km,
respectively. Dewpoints downstream across southern WI, northern IL,
and northern IN are in the low 70s, with upper 60s dewpoints also
covering much of southern Lower MI. The combination of ample
low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in
strong to very strong buoyancy to the south of the MCS from the
MN/IA border into northern/central IL.

Given the lack of a well-defined surface boundary and negligible
large-scale ascent, additional thunderstorm development will be
associated with outflow from with the MCS, which results in greater-than-average uncertainty for the Day 1 period. Ample
moisture and buoyancy downstream of the leading edge of the MCS
suggests the greater severe potential this afternoon/evening will
likely be associated with redevelopment/reintensification of the
MCS. Additionally, even if reintensification does not occur along
the leading edge of the MCS this afternoon, most guidance suggests redevelopment does eventually occur this evening along the southern
periphery of the MCV circulation as it moves into northern/central
WI. Increased severe-wind probabilities (i.e. 15%) were introduced
with this outlook to cover both of these potential scenarios. A
small 15% hail probability was introduce to cover potential for
later evening storms atop the outflow as well.

Storms are possible into northern IN and the Lower MI this afternoon
and evening as well, but the lower buoyancy should temper the
overall coverage and magnitude in these areas.

...SD and Vicinity...
A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently moving
through western CO/western WY, and will continue northeastward into
eastern WY/western Dakotas by this evening. Similar to yesterday,
high-based storms will develop ahead of the approaching shortwave
and intensify as they move eastward into a progressively more
moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD. Upscale growth into
another nocturnal MCS is forecast by most guidance, with the MCS
tracking northeastward across western/central SD tonight. Strong to
severe gusts are possible with this potential MCS across much of western/central SD.

$$
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