ACUS02 KWNS 240459
SWODY2
SPC AC 240457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing
line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New
England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of
an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within
the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the
Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also
forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the
Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley,
and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard,
mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it
still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east
of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across
North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late
Friday through Friday night.

Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable
MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains
by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a
number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations
downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at
the present time.

In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of
the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken
and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through
central Great Plains.

...New England into northern Mid Atlantic...
Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm
coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south
the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer
is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However,
the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the
northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least
scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with
the digging mid-level trough.

Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly
steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting
ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer
CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly
flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the
environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps
including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward
propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially
damaging wind gusts.

Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being
maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe
probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period.

...North Dakota...
The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective
perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday
night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is
generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might
become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a
northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air
around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to
moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with
thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening
cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection.

...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley...
Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high
plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains
through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered
vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind
gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet
clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient
to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

..Kerr.. 07/24/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250602
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the
Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to widely scattered severe
storms may also occur from the Northern Rockies, central High
Plains, and northern Plains.

...Dakotas...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow will exist near the Canadian
border and should extend into parts of North Dakota. A modest
surface trough/low will likely be situated in parts of the western
Dakotas with a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the
east of this feature. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE appear probable along
with 35-45 kts of effective shear. Beneath the upper ridge, forcing
for ascent will not be strong. Capping may be enough to hinder storm development--a scenario suggested by the ECMWF. However, there does
appear to be a weak perturbation emanating from the central Rockies
that could promote storm development near the surface trough/low, as
suggested by the NAM/GFS. Should this occur, organized supercells
would be possible early in the convective cycle. Large hail and
severe gusts would be the expected hazards. Large
temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and weak low-level shear
would likely promote outflow dominance and potential for upscale
growth. This would mean a transition to a broader threat of severe winds.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
A convectively induced MCV is expected to be moving into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This activity is
generally expected to be sub-severe given limited buoyancy. Ahead of
this feature, as well as along the outflow boundary this activity
leaves behind, strong heating of a moist airmass will support MLCAPE
in excess of 3000 J/kg in parts of central Illinois. Farther east,
MLCAPE may be near 2000-2500 J/kg. Shear will generally be weak away
from the MCV/surface boundary, but 30-35 kts of effective shear
along the boundary appears possible. Marginally organized storms
will have some potential to produce damaging downburst winds. The
main uncertainties are the track of the MCV and where the outflow
will be during the afternoon. The general trend in guidance has been
for the more favorable environment to be farther south and
probabilities have been adjusted to reflect this.

...Central High Plains...
Strong heating near the surface trough and aid from a shortwave
trough moving through the Four Corners should allow isolated storm
development by late afternoon. A modest increase in shear across the
surface trough/terrain will also occur. With large
temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, isolated severe winds
would be possible. A cluster or two could evolve out of this
activity, but where this will occur is uncertain.

...Northern Rockies...
Stronger mid-level flow will exist across this region.
Moisture/buoyancy will be limited, especially with westward extent.
However, widely scattered to scattered convection will likely
develop within the terrain and move northeastward. How far northeast
the strongest activity progresses is not clear given capping in
parts of central/eastern Montana. However, strong to marginally
severe gusts appear possible with this activity given the deeply
mixed boundary layer.

..Wendt.. 07/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the
Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and New England region.

...Dakotas into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection
within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress
into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of
this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors
for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest
this activity will most likely move through northern parts of
Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could
occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds
into Arrowhead.

To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface
trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity.
This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the
Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is
forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE).
The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear.
Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will
be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a
mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength
and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be
favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the
above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor
of greatest risk.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these
regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears
probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating
and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern
New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though
shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In
the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be
able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some
clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear.
Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a
threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if
confidence increases in where clustering will occur.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270557
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the
Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the
crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level
winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and
portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front
will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A
surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e
boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota
Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the
northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge.

...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley...
While the forecast remains complex and there are still some
uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in
storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South
Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west
of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and
subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm
development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as
mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is
still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in
southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater
buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend.
The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given
the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area,
Marginal risk probabilities will remain.

Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms
will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will
likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief
supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would
bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some
larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the
front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the
convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and
move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible
should this occur.

...Montana into western Dakotas...
Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies.
Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the
terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is
possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts
farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed
boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated
marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms.

In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold
front may serve as a focus for convective development during the
early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a
primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a
more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this
particular outcome to increase severe probabilities.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South...
There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters
associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest.
Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights
will be withheld at this juncture.

..Wendt.. 07/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...
The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current
guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have
been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently,
there has been limited signal for development this far east during
Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now.

In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This
surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited
mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures
aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the
afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the
low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some
development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited
model support for this.

The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over
the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this
development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it
will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering
inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind
probabilities will be withheld this outlook.

...Montana into the central High Plains...
Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations.
Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered
to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be
around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after
initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from
the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly.
Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations
which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity...
Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on
Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry
over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the
overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as
these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass
in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will
need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe
probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 281726
SWODY2
SPC AC 281724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from
portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat
complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located
over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front
will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI
Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday
period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this
is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the
east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries,
with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from
northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast
KS.

Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas,
boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid
50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by
afternoon.

...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA...

This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger
mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and
low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during
the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the
surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support
effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial
supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more
line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east
across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity.
Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated
hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution.

...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the
moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience
better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to
points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY
indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be
possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep
midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft,
in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells
producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from
eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into
southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more
isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for
marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region,
steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe
wind gusts.

..ND...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave
impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy
will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer
moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm
temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong
mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight
hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated
marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290557
SWODY2
SPC AC 290555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi
Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England,
and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central High Plains Vicinity...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across
southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of
this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid
moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe
wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary
question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively
isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear
likely, greater probabilities may be needed.

...Midwest...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from
northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into
the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to
strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should
allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual
outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat
will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be
steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of
favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with
questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time.

...Northeast...
Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with
moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will
overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong
mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may
permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail.
Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating
will be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and
storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central
CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift
southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow
overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend
from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse
rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample
shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and
intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the
Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the
potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse
rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy
within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for
isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will
also support some damaging wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the
Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the
mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early
afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early
afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind
gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early
evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and
high moisture content (2+" PWAT).

..Bentley.. 07/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 310602
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the
central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly
stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the
Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the
northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic
by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build
southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to
near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday.

...Southeast...
Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on
Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong
instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support
the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early
afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the
higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for
strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during
the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger
flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more
organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail
will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and
very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will
also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by
forecast soundings.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 311718
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible
throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on
Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the
strongest storms.

...High Plains...

An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on
Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest
westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse
rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor
of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western
SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support
thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical
shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and
vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few
supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in
steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts
also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in
subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area.

...Southeast...

An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast
on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and
much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a
very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC
into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is
expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC
into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+
inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are
possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the
southeast NC/SC coastal plain.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010545
SWODY2
SPC AC 010543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong
storms are possible across parts of the Southeast.

...High Plains...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be
northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate
instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this
moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during
the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of
the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High
Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening.

Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability
will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest
Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening
have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From
the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry
adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30
degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a
potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short
multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail
will be possible with rotating cells.

...Southeast...
A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on
Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s
F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level
convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As
surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across
southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse
rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated
damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 021727
SWODY2
SPC AC 021726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains.
Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern
Oregon during the afternoon.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally
favorable environment for supercells is expected during the
afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within
Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located
Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be
weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is
possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing
in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could
provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the
afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the
High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon
with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave
trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of
35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely
should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a
tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary)
would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between
two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to
uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of
early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer.
These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities.

...Central High Plains...
A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature
into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the
higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater
surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are
possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface
boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be
weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist
with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the
strongest storms isolated.

...Oregon...
Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the
afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of
the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be
present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain
and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear
segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to
marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm
cores.

..Wendt.. 08/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030805
SWODY2
SPC AC 030804

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and
central High Plains.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow
remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the
front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These
storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving
eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across
much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s
and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak
instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability,
forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40
knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The
stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts
will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have
some organization.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as
a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the
surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with
dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas
northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast
to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from
western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As
destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm
development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level
convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will
support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be
possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steep.

..Broyles.. 08/03/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern
Plains on Tuesday.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on
Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the
day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a
moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains.
By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is
forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western
Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist
sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western
South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to
the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation
expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should
spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern
North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe
threat appears likely.

Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern
South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in
the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells
that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a
larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid
evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However,
severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with
southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent.

Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward
into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible
during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the
combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less
favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any
severe threat localized.

..Broyles.. 08/04/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be
in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily
westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the
eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are
expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as
moderate to strong instability develops further to the west.
Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this
unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient.
However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due
to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a
thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the
instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary
threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated
nature of the threat.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 060603
SWODY2
SPC AC 060601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and
severe gusts will be the primary threats.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern
Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across
the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in
western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western
North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface
dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the
lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of
strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas
by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place
near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the
northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe
threat appears likely.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive,
with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A
potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in
the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An
isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is
expected to persist into the mid to late evening.

Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into
South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this
reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However,
isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level
convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could
develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and
severe gusts.

...Montana...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on
Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the
northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable
airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana,
where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500
J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into
the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms
appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to
late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the
instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place
over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the
mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe
storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late
afternoon and evening.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 080527
SWODY2
SPC AC 080525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across portions of the
central to southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move slowly eastward across southern SK and MB,
with moderate cyclonic flow aloft moving from the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. As this occurs, an upper ridge over the
eastern Great Lakes will be move toward southern QB and the
Northeast. Well south of the upper low, modest westerlies aloft will
remain over the central Rockies.

At the surface, low pressure will move from southern MB into western
ON, with a boundary stalling roughly from the upper MS Valley to KS.
Ahead of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will remain with
60s and 70s F dewpoints.

...IA into WI and surrounding areas...
The leading mid/upper speed max will move across the upper MS Valley
relatively early in the day, with midlevel drying across much of MN
into western WI. Heating will occur near the stalled front, with
robust moisture leading to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by late afternoon. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of residual/midday
storms, which could potentially overturn the air mass prematurely.
However, in general, southwest low-level flow should maintain areas
of moderate instability, with a late day increase in storm coverage
and intensity. Corridors of damaging winds appear most probable,
with substantial outflow.

...Central High Plains...
Surface winds will veer to east/southeast during the day, with 50s F
dewpoints backing west toward the Front Range. Steep lapse rates
will lead to strong instability, especially from southeast CO west/northwestward. Isolated cells capable of large hail are
forecast, with perhaps a brief tornado risk during the evening as
low-level SRH increases. Capping and uncertainty in storm coverage
currently precludes higher severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 090558
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern
Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may
occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern
areas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist
across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow
aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great
Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb
temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and
OK.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the
Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will
stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with
eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm
outflow.

Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will
be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front
and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000
J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will
be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind
gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds
increase at 850 mb.

The other area will be along the Front Range during the late
afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into
southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime
over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time,
activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts
possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 100555
SWODY2
SPC AC 100554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late
afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas
Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur
over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley...
Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains,
with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will
extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast
surface winds from KS into northwest TX early.

As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast,
with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are
likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be
uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few
longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also
produce locally severe gusts through early evening.

...ND into northern MN...
A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel
vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day.
This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough
which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for
ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath
the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells
may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 101720
SWODY2
SPC AC 101718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe
wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into
northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher
latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to
continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the
international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes,
during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one
initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the
Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes
region by late Monday night.

Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much
of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies,
between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the
Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal
zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is
likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri
Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally
continuing to weaken through the period.

Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be
maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across
much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the
north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri
Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing
cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night.

...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes...
The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just
north of the weakening front, may provide support for the
development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation
Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively
generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this
could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but
the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain
rather sparse in nature.

One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the
boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper
mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of
warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus
within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse,
within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support
for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating
thunderstorm cluster.

Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output,
suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection
over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the
lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday
night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested
by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving
cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point,
however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much
uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly
large false alarm area.

...Northern Great Plains...
A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps
the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening
southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a
corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon.
Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear,
downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the
environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development
capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong
surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe
limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening
across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota,
where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep
lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting
and evaporative cooling in downdrafts.

..Kerr.. 08/10/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 110532
SWODY2
SPC AC 110531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great
Lakes region Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with
attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through
00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result
in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas.

While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of
strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating
may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across
eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very
strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep.
However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as
cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late.

Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains
beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest
and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 120529
SWODY2
SPC AC 120528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied
by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of
central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

...Discussion...
As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern
Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a
secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level
winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of
40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD.

Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of
60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with
strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough.

Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills
and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail
risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few
severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become
a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS.
As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe
activity withing the broader zone of convection.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and
evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South
Dakota into western Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The
southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN
late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing
mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt.

At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD
during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm
plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the
front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50
kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet
increases to 30-40 kt.

Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over
central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress
across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as
storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur.
Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail
over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE
will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with
brief hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140541
SWODY2
SPC AC 140539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis......
An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday,
with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough
departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to
lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin.

At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD
border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large
area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE
as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring
moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY.

...Eastern SD into MN and western WI...
Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm
advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This
regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust
potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores
producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the
initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area.

...Black Hills and Vicinity...
Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as
winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s
dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt
midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight
hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While
storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025
$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening Sunday from the Upper Midwest to the northern
High Plains. Isolated damaging winds are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across the Northeast and New England.

...Upper Midwest...
Decaying convective swaths will likely be ongoing at 12Z Sunday,
centered on the eastern Dakotas to southern MN. The eastern lobe of
this morning activity will aid in strengthening the quasi-stationary
baroclinic zone, as differential boundary-layer heating occurs
across it through the day. Presence of mid to upper ridging
emanating north-northeast from the southern Great Plains anticyclone
will remain a limiting factor to more robust severe potential.
Still, drifting MCVs across the Dakotas in a modest southwesterly
flow regime in conjunction with large buoyancy in the warm-moist
sector should aid in scattered late-afternoon thunderstorm
development. This appears most probable in the eastern SD to
southwest MN vicinity, with isolated coverage trailing into central
NE. A mix of isolated severe hail/wind initially should transition
to mainly sporadic strong to severe gusts through the evening as
slow-moving clusters/MCSs develop. A brief tornado is also possible
with any transient supercell structures near the front.

...Northern High Plains...
Primary severe potential should emanate out of late afternoon
convection initiating off the higher terrain of southern MT and
separately in the Black Hills vicinity. A modest combination of
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent suggests mainly a strong to
isolated severe threat should be expected as high-based convection
spreads northeast across eastern MT. The presence of weak
surface/low-level should modulate the eastern extent of severe
potential on Sunday evening.

...Northeast/New England...
A shortwave trough will progress across the St. Lawrence Valley
towards the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England through
Sunday afternoon. A cold front will push southeastward through the
day with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected along
it during the afternoon. Buoyancy appears likely to be weak and will
remain a limiting factor to more robust severe potential. More
favorable deep-layer shear will exist in New England where localized
damaging winds and small hail should be favored. Farther southwest,
multicell clustering should be dominant with isolated damaging winds
from sporadic strong gusts.

..Grams.. 08/16/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170536
SWODY2
SPC AC 170534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Monday over parts of the central and northern
Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great
Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, a ridge will build over the northern Plains on
Monday, as flow over much of the north-central U.S. remains from the west-northwest. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be in
place over much of the central and eastern Dakotas. Along the
southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability
will likely develop by afternoon from parts of eastern Montana
southeastward into Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will likely remain
limited over much of the region, helping to keep convective
development isolated. Although deep-layer shear should remain below
35 knots in most areas, low to mid-level lapse rates will be steep.
This could be enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly in the
late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon. To the east
of the trough, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
from central Iowa eastward into northern Illinois. The greatest
convective coverage is expected to develop further to the north
across parts of Wisconsin, where instability will be weaker but
deep-layer shear will be greater. The combination of instability and
deep-layer shear across Wisconsin could be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat during the late afternoon and early evening. This
threat, along with a potential for hail could extend southwestward
into central Iowa where strong instability is forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180555
SWODY2
SPC AC 180553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will build northward across the central Rockies
and northern High Plains on Tuesday, as a subtle shortwave trough
moves through the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys,
extending westward into the southern Plains. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, low-level convergence near the front will be
favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
Limited large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer shear will be
unfavorable for severe storms. Further northwest into the
north-central states, moderate instability will be possible by
Tuesday afternoon, mainly in the Dakotas. However, a severe threat
is not expected due to limited large-scale ascent, minimal low-level convergence, and weak deep-layer shear. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190541
SWODY2
SPC AC 190539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late
afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far
northeast Montana.

...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana...
A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four
Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day.
Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central
North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front
in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms
possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota.
Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200557
SWODY2
SPC AC 200556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop Thursday into
Thursday night over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota, with severe
gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains into parts of MN...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to evolve into a
deep-layer cyclone as it moves eastward across parts of the Canadian
Prairies on Thursday. A trailing cold front will move through the
Dakotas and northwest MN, with a weak frontal wave potentially
developing across SD. Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass
will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization by late
afternoon.

An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated remnant
convection is expected to move across MB/ND and northern MN early in
the day. In the wake of this shortwave, large-scale ascent is
expected to be generally weak until later Thursday night, resulting
in uncertainty regarding afternoon/evening storm development.
Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front, and
potentially near the weak surface low across SD. An increase in
storm coverage is expected late Thursday night, as somewhat stronger
midlevel height falls and upper-level difluence overspread the
region.

The strongest mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the
front, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization, including conditional supercell potential. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained with this outlook, but greater
severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on trends
regarding storm coverage and timing from parts of the Dakotas into
northwest MN.

Other strong storms may develop Thursday night across parts of the
northern High Plains, within a favorably sheared post-frontal
regime. Severe probabilities may eventually need to be expanded
westward, if confidence increases in a favored post-frontal
corridor.

...Coastal NC...
The center of Hurricane Erin is forecast by NHC to remain well
offshore of coastal NC on Thursday as it begins moving
northeastward. However, the western periphery of Erin's large wind
field will result in rather strong deep-layer northerly flow across
the Outer Banks and vicinity. If modest diurnal heating can occur,
then showers and possibly a few weak storms may develop during the
afternoon, though it is uncertain if any such development would be
sufficiently vigorous to support convectively augmented gusts.

...Parts of the Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians vicinity Thursday afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, but northerly low-midlevel
flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, and the
organized severe threat appears low, but localized tree damage could
accompany these storms during the afternoon and early evening.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening
across parts of AZ, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated
strong gusts could accompany these storms. With an amplified
upper-level ridge anchored near the Four Corners, midlevel flow will
generally be easterly across central/southern AZ. The easterly
steering flow and a very hot and well-mixed environment could
support a threat of strong outflow gusts into the lower elevations,
though it is uncertain if storm coverage will be sufficient for
larger-scale outflow development and more than very isolated
damaging-wind potential.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/central High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant surface low is forecast to
move eastward across parts of MB and northwest ON Friday. An
outflow-influenced surface boundary may drift southeastward across
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest during the day, while a
strong trailing cold front begins to move across the Dakotas and
northern MN.

The greatest relative confidence in diurnal storm development is
within the post-frontal regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively elongated
hodographs will support potential for strong to potential severe
storm development, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated hail
and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest cells. While
uncertain, there is some potential for storm clustering during the
evening, which could result in some severe potential spreading into
parts of western NE and perhaps northwest KS Friday night.

Farther east, confidence is low regarding the details of convective
evolution from central/eastern NE/SD into the Upper Midwest. In
general, a zone of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
(locally higher), is expected to develop by afternoon near/north of
the leading surface boundary, and ahead of the trailing cold front.
Gradually strengthening midlevel flow is forecast to provide
modestly favorable effective shear (25-35 kt).

There may be some potential for early-day convection to intensify as
it moves through a destabilizing environment during the afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be
possible during the afternoon/evening within the zone of favorable moisture/instability, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and
isolated hail.

...Arizona...
Similar to D1/Thursday, scattered storm development will be possible
Friday afternoon across higher terrain areas of AZ, with easterly
flow potentially steering storms (or at least their remnant
outflows) into the lower deserts with time. Isolated damaging wind
cannot be ruled out with this activity, given the presence of a hot
and well-mixed environment, though it remains uncertain if more
substantial storm clustering and outflow consolidation will evolve
during the evening.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday or Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward through the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward
across the mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible near the front. Instability is expected to remain
weak along and ahead of the front, which should keep any severe
potential low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230617
SWODY2
SPC AC 230615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
on Monday and Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of
the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure will remain in place from the Great
Plains eastward to the Appalachians. Along this southern periphery
of this airmass, post-frontal storms will be possible across parts
of the central High Plains and southern Plains Monday afternoon.
Within this airmass, any instability that develops is forecast to
remain weak, suggesting that the potential for severe storms is low.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not
expected Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250541
SWODY2
SPC AC 250540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern
U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the
central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to
be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as
surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will
also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In
these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting
the severe potential will be limited.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.

...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly
mid-level flow regime will become established across the central
U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued
low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse
will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a
lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and
southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger
storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by
a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing
too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010551
SWODY2
SPC AC 010550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern
Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the
central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow
(Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will
quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper
MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge
southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which
may be severe.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist
airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon.
Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly
curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk
shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and
perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage
to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances
of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

$$
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