MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 192038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192038
OKZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of east central and northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

Valid 192038Z - 192245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived discrete supercell development accompanied by
potential for a couple of strong tornadoes remains possible, while
spreading across the I-40 into I-44 corridors of northeastern
Oklahoma through 5-7 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A clustering of strong to severe storms, including a
couple of sustained tornado producing supercells continues to
develop north/northeastward, within a seasonably moist and
moderately unstable warm sector, well east of the dryline. This has
been supported by a weak lead mid-level perturbation progressing
toward the Ozark Plateau.

The supercells are generally focused along/west of a strengthening
(40+ kt) 850 mb jet axis, and now within an area of stronger surface
pressure falls (including 2-3+ mb/2 hourly, evident in 20Z surface observations). As long as the supercells remain more or less
discrete, the environment remains conducive to additional tornado
development, with perhaps some increase in potential for a strong
tornado or two into early evening.

..Kerr.. 05/19/2025

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560
34959621 35199669 35559662

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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