ACUS11 KWNS 302142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302142=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-302345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302142Z - 302345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk for strong to severe wind will be possible
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is noted near Lubbock,TX in
the region of the surface trough. Cumulus extends across the Texas
Panhandle within plume of moisture characterized by low to mid 60s
dew points. Modest northwesterly flow extends along the northern
portion of the Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Thus
far, where thunderstorms have developed, shear profiles remain weak
with little in the way of organization. Should development occur
further north near the belt of enhanced northwesterly flow, as
indicated in some CAM guidance, stronger storms may be possible with
potential for strong to severe winds. Confidence is low overall in
organized development occurring and thus a watch is unlikely.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_od3BLBAa1A3Hobhdr6zYqz0ZNotRb46ofaP6JeFU9_TSatSL4bNhXK_60Ba2vGf8amdR9dJu= mOsYFLhTzFcThFDiSI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33370295 34040261 35190168 36230070 36230026 36099992
35909987 34689953 34189978 33580057 33430146 33320206
33300254 33370295=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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