ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is expected to remain low on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify across the Rockies
and into parts of the Plains on Tuesday. A low amplitude trough will
persist in the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a
cold front will continue southward through the central Plains into
the southern Plains.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely develop to the south and
west of the surface boundary. However, mid-level flow and effective
shear will be rather weak. In general, given weak overall forcing,
isolated to widely scattered storms are expected. Some of these
storms could be stronger and produce strong wind gusts.
Predictability of where this will occur is too low to warrant severe probabilities.

Modestly moist upslope flow into the Front Range could promote
isolated storm development. Shear should be somewhat stronger in
eastern Colorado. Confidence in storm coverage (given the
intensifying ridge aloft) and storms being able to move off the
terrain remains low, however.

..Wendt.. 08/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180714
SWODY3
SPC AC 180713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge
moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the
nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated
over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest
convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern
Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday
afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale
ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be
favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is
expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective
potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the
continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181931
SWODY3
SPC AC 181930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ND
AND FAR NORTHEAST MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night
across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana.

...Northern ND and far northeast MT...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress across the
Northwest on Wednesday into the northern High Plains and southern
Canadian Prairies Wednesday night. This should be accompanied by an
initially pronounced upper-level jet streak that should weaken late
as it impinges on the northern Great Plains ridge. Stronger
large-scale ascent may largely remain north of the international
border until early morning Thursday. NCEP guidance suggests
convection will be sparse before this timeframe with appreciable
MLCIN. Non-NCEP guidance suggests potential for evening storms along
the surface trough/developing front. Consensus indicates a confined low-probability severe hail/wind threat is warranted, with spatial
details becoming likely to become clearer in later cycles.

...NC Outer Banks...
12Z guidance continues a westward trend to the track of Hurricane
Erin. As NHC noted a larger-than-average surrounding wind field, low-probability tornado potential may overspread the Outer Banks as
early as Wednesday evening with potential for outer convective band
formation. However, adequate low-level SRH/hodograph curvature for a
tornado risk seems likely to be displaced until Wednesday night. Any
earlier arrival/farther westward track could warrant a level 1-MRGL
risk highlight in later cycles.

...South-Central States...
A somewhat similar setup to D2 will be displaced southward on D3
with scattered to numerous pulse-type storms expected during the
afternoon to early evening. However, the convectively modified
surface cold front should become more nebulous and mid-level
northerlies will remain weak. In addition, the buoyancy plume should
have variable pockets of weak to strong MLCAPE, especially in the
wake of extensive convection on D2. Will defer to later cycles for
possible microburst/localized damaging wind highlight(s).

..Grams.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
northern Plains on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across
Saskatchewan on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward
into the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a north-to-south axis
of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon across parts of the
eastern South Dakotas. During the late afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the front, from
far northwestern Minnesota into the eastern South Dakota. NAM
forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear mostly in the 35 to 45 knot range. This is due to directional
shear in the boundary-layer and westerly flow in the mid-levels.
This could support a potential for supercells, if modes end up as
discrete. Supercells would be capable of hail and isolated severe
gusts. There is some uncertainty as to the location of the maximum
threat, which will depend on the timing of the front and
distribution of low-level moisture and instability. An upgrade in
category could be necessary if the models continue to show a more
favorable scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191901
SWODY3
SPC AC 191900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and
hail possible.

...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the
Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level
westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops
east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a
somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place,
supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent
with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during
the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this
activity.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200728
SWODY3
SPC AC 200727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern Great Lakes to the Central High Plains...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to dig
southeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday. A surface low is forecast to
move across northwest Ontario, as a trailing cold front continues
southeastward across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
A secondary cold front is forecast to move across the northern
Plains and northern MN, with a much drier airmass expected behind
this secondary front.

As the mid/upper-level trough digs into the region during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible from Upper MI into parts of
WI/IA/southeast MN and eastern NE. Relatively weak midlevel lapse
rates may tend to limit updraft intensity to some extent, but
moderate MLCAPE and 25-35 kt of effective shear within the
west-northwesterly flow regime may support some storm organization,
with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

Farther west, strong to locally severe storms may develop within a
post-frontal regime across parts of eastern WY/CO and the NE
Panhandle. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates could support
isolated hail with the strongest storms, with localized strong gusts
also possible.

...Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of AZ on
Friday, within a similar regime to D2/Thursday. Locally gusty winds
will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some
potential for outflows to spread into the lower elevations. Trends
will be monitored regarding the potential for a greater coverage of
damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201921
SWODY3
SPC AC 201920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/Central High Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper cyclone over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough
will develop southeast across portions of the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday. At the surface, a
cold front will develop south/southeast across the region. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place near and ahead of the
front. A narrow corridor of 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast ahead
of the front from the WY/CO High Plains eastward across parts of NE
and northeast into southern MN and northern/central WI.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon across portions of WI/MN and the U.P. of MI.
closer to the surface low over Ontario. Vertical shear is expected
to remain modest, with stronger shear likely trailing the cold
front. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates where stronger
heating occurs could support sporadic strong to severe gusts.

Additional storms are expected to develop in the post-frontal
upslope regime across parts of eastern WY and northeast CO during
the late afternoon/evening. This activity may eventually become a
forward propagating cluster across NE during the nighttime hours as
the surface cold front develops southward toward the KS border.
Forecast soundings indicated sufficient deep shear and
elongated/straight hodographs will be present amid steep midlevel
lapse rates. Isolated large hail may be possible initially, with an
increasing chance for isolated damaging gusts if sufficient
clustering can occur further east into NE and vicinity.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210730
SWODY3
SPC AC 210729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears low on Saturday.

...Parts of the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into the south-central
Plains...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually amplify across the north-central and eastern CONUS Saturday. A cold front will continue
moving southeastward across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest into
the south-central Plains. Midlevel lapse rates along/ahead of the
front will generally be weak, but low-level moisture will be
sufficient for moderate buoyancy by afternoon. The strongest
deep-layer flow/shear will located across parts of the central Great
Lakes, but the convective signal in most guidance is rather sparse
across this area, likely due to limited frontal convergence and very
dry air aloft. The 00Z NAM is a notable outlier, depicting both a
much slower front, and more substantial development along/ahead of
the front during the afternoon and evening. Severe probabilities may
eventually be needed if trends end up supporting more robust
convection along/ahead of the front across the Midwest and Great
Lakes.

Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered storms will be
possible across parts of the Ozarks and south-central Plains. While
a strong storm or two will be possible in this area, relatively weak
deep-layer flow/shear and generally modest instability may tend to
limit organized severe potential.

...CO Front Range and adjacent parts of the High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of the
CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains Saturday. While wind
profiles will remain favorable for organized convection, with
modestly elongated hodographs within the post-frontal regime,
guidance generally depicts weaker midlevel lapse rates compared to
previous days, especially across the High Plains. There may be a
tendency for storms to remain confined to the higher terrain for
much of the period, with uncertain severe potential. However, a
marginal supercell or two with hail potential cannot be ruled out,
and severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of
this region, if trends support sufficient destabilization.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211913
SWODY3
SPC AC 211912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential currently appears low on Saturday.

...Central High Plains into Lower MI vicinity...

The upper cyclone over Ontario will deepen modestly but mostly
remain stationary, while an attendant shortwave trough deepens
across the Midwest on Saturday. Stronger westerly flow will be in
place across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as a surface cold front
develops east/southeast across MI and much of the MS/OH Valleys and
portions of the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass will be
in place ahead of the cold front, with pockets of modest
destabilization expected from the central High Plains into the Lower
MI Vicinity. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates and poor frontal
convergence will limit thunderstorm coverage, but a few storms could
develop across Lower MI and perhaps parts of IN/OH. Gusty winds
could accompany these storms, but overall severe potential appears
low.

Additional thunderstorms also will develop over higher terrain in
parts of southeast WY into eastern CO, southward toward the Raton
Mesa vicinity, and perhaps eastward into northern OK near the
frontal boundary. The best chance for a strong storm or two appears
to be over eastern CO in the post-frontal upslope regime where
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE will be present amid supercell wind profiles
and steep lapse rates. Modest warming near 700 mb may suppress
updraft intensity, especially amid weak large-scale ascent. If a
stronger storm can be maintained off of the higher terrain, strong
gusts and hail could occur. However, confidence in this scenario is
low, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220719
SWODY3
SPC AC 220718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much
of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave
mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to
develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and
northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale
ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in
the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the
central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM
forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis
have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to
60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat,
with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late
afternoon into early evening.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221919
SWODY3
SPC AC 221918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central High Plains...

Northwesterly mid/upper flow will be in place across the High Plains
on Sunday on the back side of the large-scale upper trough over the
eastern U.S. A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to move across
the central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. At the same time,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a narrow corridor of modest
boundary layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F) across parts of
eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values within this corridor. As a result,
thunderstorms are likely to develop over higher terrain during the
afternoon and could spread southeast into the moist axis.

Some uncertainty exists with regards to early-day convection and
cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures may remain rather cool and could
hamper stronger destabilization. However, if storms can develop and
become sustained off the higher terrain, vertical shear will be
sufficient for organized cells. Elongated forecast hodographs and
cool 500 mb temperatures indicate hail could occur with any stronger
sustained cells. If stronger heating/boundary layer mixing can
occur, gusty winds also may accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 08/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230658
SWODY3
SPC AC 230658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms across the continental U.S. on
Monday and Monday night appears to be low.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain over much of the
eastern half of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a large area of
high pressure will settle in across the north-central U.S., as a
relative cool and dry airmass remains in place from the eastern Gulf
Coast states northward into the Great Lakes. A front is forecast to
move through New England, along which isolated thunderstorm
development is expected during the day. Instability near the front
should remain weak, and the potential for severe storms appears low.


In the central U.S., northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place
on Monday. A slow-moving front is forecast over the southern High
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon
near the front from south-central Colorado into the northern Texas
Panhandle. Along and near the front, instability is expected to
remain weak, suggesting the severe potential should remain low.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not
expected Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231928
SWODY3
SPC AC 231927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area
of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday.
West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four
Corners states into western TX.

At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in
relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and
eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated
thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into
the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into
central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and
marginally unstable air mass.

Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb
flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front.
Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity
into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit
severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel
moisture persist.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240702
SWODY3
SPC AC 240701

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will remain over the eastern
U.S., as northwest flow continues over much of the central U.S. and
a ridge remains over the Rockies. At the surface, a large area of
high pressure will remain anchored over central and eastern U.S.
Along the southern and western periphery of this post-frontal
airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from
the Rockies into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. No
severe threat is expected across the continental United States
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241317
SWODY3
SPC AC 241316

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will remain over the eastern
U.S., as northwest flow continues over much of the central U.S. and
a ridge remains over the Rockies. At the surface, a large area of
high pressure will remain anchored over central and eastern U.S.
Along the southern and western periphery of this post-frontal
airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from
the Rockies into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. No
severe threat is expected across the continental United States
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241928
SWODY3
SPC AC 241927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS
on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley
to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from
northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early
in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher
dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely
given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft.

Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the
Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful,
and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining.

..Jewell.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250716
SWODY3
SPC AC 250714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over
much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave
ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the
mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this
post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the
southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely
to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the
returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest
Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this
instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern
Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may
be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251913
SWODY3
SPC AC 251912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. on Wednesday. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled
out over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin late in the day, and over
eastern Colorado.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will exit the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Wednesday
with a secondary wave developing later in the period into the Upper
and Middle MS Valley and Great Lakes. Behind the initial trough,
high pressure will already be in place over the OH Valley, which
will limit destabilization ahead of the secondary system. However, a
narrow plume of low-level moisture with 50s F dewpoints will result
in a marginally unstable environment across the upper MS Valley by
late afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear
of 20-30 kt may result in a few cells capable of mainly
small/non-severe hail.

Southwest of this region, east/southeast surface winds will persist
over the central plains, as a weak surface trough develops over
eastern CO. The moist easterly flow toward the Front Range may
result in a few stronger cells, perhaps with hail potential. Lapse
rates aloft will not be very steep beneath the weak upper ridge, nor
will shear be very favorable. However, at least small hail may occur
locally during the late afternoon for a short time near peak
heating.

..Jewell.. 08/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260725
SWODY3
SPC AC 260724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS while an upper
ridge remains in place across the Southwest on Thursday. Multiple
mid-level perturbations will rotate around the broader upper trough,
promoting enough lift to support thunderstorms across portions of
the Great Lakes. Multiple rounds of south-southeastward progressing thunderstorms are also likely across the southern Plains into the
Southeast along a frontal boundary through the day. Rich low-level
moisture and associated ample buoyancy will precede the southern
Plains storms during the afternoon, which may promote strong storm
potential given modest wind shear.

...Southern Plains...
An MCS may be ongoing across portions of the Southern Plains at the
start of the period, leaving an outflow boundary in its wake. South
of the outflow boundary, robust surface heating will take place,
supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid low 70s F
dewpoints. Despite poor (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, the
rich low-level moisture may support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest
veering and strengthening of the flow with height will result in 35
kts of effective bulk shear. The development of multicells and/or
the southwestward back-building of an older MCS is anticipated by
mid to late afternoon, with strong thunderstorms possible. The main
uncertainty at this point is the placement and movement of the
outflow boundary, which will directly influence where any isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur. As such, Category 1/Marginal risk
probabilities have been withheld given placement uncertainties,
though severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261915
SWODY3
SPC AC 261914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...

An MCS is likely to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of
KS/OK/AR. This activity will likely diminish as it develops
southeast toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. A composite
outflow/surface cold front will then spread south/southwest across
OK/the Panhandles/eastern NM by mid-afternoon, though forecast
guidance varies on the exact location of the surface boundary. Near
the boundary, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. While
midlevel lapse rates are expected to be relatively weak, rich
boundary layer moisture should support a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in the vicinity of the Red River. Low-level winds are
expected to remain light, but vertically veering profiles will
support around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitude. Where strong
heating can occur ahead of the boundary, isolated strong storms
could develop during the afternoon/evening. Locally strong gusts are
possible with this activity.

At this time, uncertainty in the evolution of the surface boundary
and coverage of thunderstorms precludes severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270715
SWODY3
SPC AC 270714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River
Valley to the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper
ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As
surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and
Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level
moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating,
thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across
central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by
storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the
higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level
flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level
lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong
thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine
River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail
should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre
thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings),
suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe
probabilities introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271902
SWODY3
SPC AC 271901

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains on Friday.

...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest
northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest
TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf
Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across
TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to
remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating
will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast
TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in
the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period
from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification
may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops
southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime
will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE,
southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong
daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster
MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles
will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated
thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty
winds and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280713
SWODY3
SPC AC 280712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern High Plains on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will eject into the Atlantic from New England as
upper ridging remains in place over the Rockies, and a mid-level
trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest coastline on Saturday. A
broad northwesterly upper-flow regime will become established over
the central U.S., with surface lee troughing encouraging warm and
moist low-level upslope flow along the central and southern High
Plains. During the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop
over the higher terrain of eastern CO/NM and advance eastward during
the evening hours. Buoyancy does not look particularly strong, and
vertical wind shear should be modest at best. Nonetheless, a few
strong storms may develop over eastern CO/NM into western KS to the
TX Panhandle. The stronger storms may produce wind gusts and hail
approaching severe limits. However, the sparse nature of the severe
threat, and uncertainties regarding where the best buoyancy/shear
will overlap, preclude severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281850
SWODY3
SPC AC 281849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern High Plains on
Saturday.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper level northwest flow regime will persist on Saturday, with
a large-scale upper trough remaining over the eastern U.S. while
ridging builds over the West. South/southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain 60s F dewpoints across eastern CO/western KS southward
into eastern NM and western TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across the High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain by
mid-afternoon and spread east/southeast into better boundary layer
moisture and more favorable instability. Vertical shear will remain
modest, but vertically veering profiles will support 20-30 kt
effective shear. Elongated forecast hodographs suggest small hail
will be possible within this environment, while steep low-level
lapse rates support stronger downdrafts and locally gusty winds.
Severe probabilities could be need for parts of the region in
subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a more concentrated
corridor of marginal severe potential.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290711
SWODY3
SPC AC 290711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific
Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across
most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist
across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place
to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus
shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather
weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind
and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too
sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291907
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be
centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward
across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but
modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the
Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a
couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce
locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs
ahead of the surface boundary.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over
the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across
the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be
commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well
areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over
the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source
for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across
the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the
Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A
couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be
ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low
to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301917
SWODY3
SPC AC 301916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Monday.

...Synopsis...
A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains
and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West
on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface
high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East
Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much
of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the
central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over
the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms.

...Southern Plains...
Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow
from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass
casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still,
some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest
buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these
thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or
MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will
likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain
below 5%.

..Lyons.. 08/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310731
SWODY3
SPC AC 310730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern
U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance
consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough
rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting
around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front
will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday.
Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to
meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS
Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface
cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse
rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts.
Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot
be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level
perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support
multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of
severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311930
SWODY3
SPC AC 311929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday,
though severe potential is uncertain.

...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by
the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale
ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable
boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a
cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance
continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon,
and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more
favorable instability.

There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of
the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated
convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be
needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the
primary synoptic features.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN
Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A
low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep
mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally
enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to
remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong
to support an organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 08/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over portions of the central
Plains on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen while also taken on a more neutral
tilt over the Midwest as upper ridging persists west of the Rockies
on Wednesday. The deepening mid-level trough will encourage the
continued southward progression of a surface cold front over the
central Plains into the OH Valley. Seasonal low-level moisture ahead
of the front will promote buoyancy to support thunderstorms, which
should develop with the aid of low-level frontal convergence. Since
stronger northwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the
pre-frontal airmass and support adequate vertical wind shear aloft,
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central Plains.

...Portions of the Central Plains...
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F
amid mid 60s F dewpoints, which when overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially over
eastern KS. Winds will gradually veer with height, from southwest to
northwest through the boundary layer, then increase from 20 kts
around 700 mb, to about 40 kts in the 500-300 mb layer. This profile
will support modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms that develop ahead of
the cold front will likely be mixed modal between multicells and
supercells, capable of at least isolated severe hail and wind.
Category 1/Marginal Risk severe probabilities have been introduced,
though higher probabilities may be needed if it becomes clear that
more sustained supercells can materialize over eastern KS.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011926
SWODY3
SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
into Missouri Ozarks late Wednesday afternoon into early evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Tuesday into Wednesday, models indicate little change to the
amplified large-scale pattern across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific through North America. Mid/upper troughing will be
maintained to the east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, reinforced by
one vigorous short wave trough forecast to continue digging
southeast of the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, as a
similar upstream perturbation digs southeast of the Northwest
Territories through eastern Canadian Prairies.

A surface cold front associated with the lead impulse is forecast to
continue surging southeastward through the remainder of the
Midwest/lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys and central Great
Plains, accompanied by notable further low-level drying. Seasonably
high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume
across the central Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula into
southwestern Atlantic, on the southern through southeastern
periphery of the larger-scale mid/upper troughing.

...Central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks...
Mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the region, to the
southwest of the primary digging mid-level troughing/evolving low,
remains unclear due to lingering model spread. However, models
suggest that boundary-layer moisture will remain sufficient to
support moderate potential instability beneath a pre-frontal plume
of steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.

Focusing on the southward advancing cold front, and pre-frontal
surface troughing, at least isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development appears possible by late Wednesday
afternoon. Beneath strengthening northwesterly mid-level flow, the
environment may become conducive to supercells and one or two small
organizing clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind,
before convection weakens during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 09/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020725
SWODY3
SPC AC 020724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of
thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern
CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will
pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even
more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the
Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge
eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where
seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive
band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind
shear, a few storms may be strong to severe.

...Central Appalachians...
The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into
early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the
central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor,
yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack
of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree.
Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with
height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of
the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of
mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021928
SWODY3
SPC AC 021928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the lee of
the Allegheny Mountains into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday,
accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing to the
east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies may continue to gradually
consolidate during this period, becoming centered around a notable
deepening and occluding cyclone across northern Ontario, to the west
of James Bay. Around the southwestern periphery of this feature, a
significant trailing short wave perturbation is forecast to dig
across the northern U.S. Great Plains and Midwest through lower
Great Lakes region, accompanied by a secondary surface cyclone and
reinforcing cold intrusion from the lee of the northern Rockies
through much of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley
by daybreak Friday. It appears that the occluding preceding front
will progress east/southeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, before stalling and weakening, while seasonably high
moisture content remains confined to a remnant preceding boundary
across the southwestern Atlantic into southern Florida/southeastern
Gulf Basin.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into Tennessee Valley...
Aided by modestly steepening lower tropospheric lapse rates, it
appears that residual boundary-layer moisture may become supportive
of weak to modest destabilization, within at least a narrow
pre-frontal corridor across the region during the day Thursday.
This may include CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence
of strengthening, but still modest, cyclonic west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow, including 20-40+ kt in the 850-500 mb
layer. It is possible that this environment may become conducive to
at least widely scattered strong thunderstorm development capable of
producing a few strong to potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 09/02/2025

$$

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