ACUS48 KWNS 170855
SWOD48
SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
On Wednesday, a mid-level ridge will likely be in place across the
northern Plains. At the surface, a front is forecast to be located
over the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. Moderate instability is
expected to develop to the south of the front, and over parts of the north-central states. In areas where storms are expected, deep-layer
shear should be weak, suggesting a severe threat is unlikely.

On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave trough and an associated cold
front are forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. An
axis of moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front. This
combined with moderate deep-layer shear could be enough for an
isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly over
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

The front and its associated shortwave trough are forecast to move
into the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Friday.
Moderate instability appears likely to develop ahead of the front
during the afternoon. Along and near the instability axis, the
greatest potential for thunderstorm development could occur in the
central Plains within northwest mid-level flow. An isolated severe
threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to remain
over the Great Lakes region. Ahead of the trough, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop in the central Appalachians,
where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear could be sufficient for an
isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon as
low-level lapse rates become steep.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 180854
SWOD48
SPC AC 180852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will
likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern
Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop
during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated
severe threat possible.

On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the
upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of
instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential
is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective
coverage.

On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes
region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated
storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible
in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale
ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated
cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm
development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in
the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper
Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the
front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period,
suggesting any severe threat will remain localized.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 190850
SWOD48
SPC AC 190849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
On Friday, a mid-level shortwave trough and an associated cold front
is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley. An axis of
moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the
front from the western Great Lakes southwestward into the mid
Missouri Valley. Due to limited large-scale ascent, convective
coverage near the instability axis is expected to be very isolated.
A marginal risk will be possible with cells that develop close
enough to the instability axis.

On Saturday, the front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes
region, extending southward into the central Plains. Instability
will again develop ahead of the front, but convective initiation
should remain isolated due to a lack of large-scale ascent. The area
with the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be
over the central Great Lakes ahead of a shortwave trough.

The shortwave trough is forecast to amplify over the Great Lakes
region on Sunday, as the cold front advances through the lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Instability will increase during the day
ahead of the front over the central Appalachians with scattered
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear
should be strong enough for an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly
in areas where instability is stronger.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
A cold front is forecast to advance towards the Eastern Seaboard on
Monday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon
ahead of the front from New England southward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Although moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, instability should
remain weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. Although uncertainty is substantial at this extended range, the models keep a
relatively dry post-frontal airmass over much of the central and
eastern U.S on Tuesday. Along the southern periphery of this
airmass, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the southern
Plains and Ark-La-Tex Tuesday afternoon. However, weak instability
is expected to limit severe threat potential.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 200804
SWOD48
SPC AC 200803

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday - D6/Monday...
On D4/Saturday, a seasonably strong cold front will move across
parts of the south-central Great Plains into the mid MS Valley and
southern Great Lakes region, as a deep mid/upper-level trough
becomes established over much of the central/eastern CONUS. Somewhat
favorable deep-layer flow/shear could support strong to locally
severe storms along the front, though generally modest instability
may tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. Strong storms
may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the
central High Plains.

The cold front will make further south/east progress on D5/Sunday,
and locally strong storms may develop from parts of the Northeast
into the central/southern Appalachians. Generally weak instability
may tend to limit coverage of the organized severe threat. Strong
storms may also develop again within a post-frontal regime across
parts of the central/southern High Plains.

The cold front may tend to slow down by D6/Monday across parts of
the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though guidance begins to diverge
regarding the evolution of the deep upper trough and potential for
surface low development off of the Mid Atlantic coast. Some
potential for strong storms could again evolve along the front, from
parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic.

...D7/Tuesday - D8/Wednesday...
While predictability continues to wane regarding the details,
extended-range guidance generally depicts persistence of the eastern
CONUS upper trough into the middle of next week, though it may begin
to shift eastward with time. In the wake of the cold frontal
passage, an expansive surface ridge is forecast to maintain
generally stable conditions for most areas east of the Rockies,
resulting in limited potential for organized severe storms.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 210811
SWOD48
SPC AC 210809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday - D5/Monday...
A cold front that moves into the eastern CONUS on Sunday may tend to
slow down, as a reinforcing shortwave moves through the base of a
deep mid/upper-level trough covering the region. Scattered storms
will be possible from the Northeast into the central/southern
Appalachians on D4/Sunday, though with only modest instability and
deep-layer shear forecast to be in place, any severe potential may
remain isolated. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear is generally
forecast to overspread parts of the Northeast/New England on
D5/Monday, though with generally weak instability expected, severe
potential is uncertain.

Scattered storms will also be possible on Sunday and Monday across
the CO Front Range vicinity into the central High Plains, within a
persistent post-frontal regime. While details are uncertain, strong
to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially if any
organized clustering can develop and emerge into parts of the High
Plains.

...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...
While typical model spread is noted by Days 6-8, guidance generally
depicts relatively limited severe potential into the middle of next
week, as an expansive surface ridge suppresses richer low-level
moisture to parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas. Some guidance shows
potential for recovery by D8/Thursday across parts of the
southern/central Plains, but deep-layer flow is generally forecast
to remain weak to modest across the region.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 220848
SWOD48
SPC AC 220846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across
much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is
expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be
possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also
expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains
within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will
likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast
to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the
Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be
possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in
the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western
periphery of the post-frontal airmass.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over
the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure
moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered
thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High
Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 230838
SWOD48
SPC AC 230836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on
Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across
much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may
develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts
of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place
across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate
instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where
scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite
of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak,
suggesting any severe threat will be marginal.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain
in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the
nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over
parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will
be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively
weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting
that any severe threat will remain localized.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 240840
SWOD48
SPC AC 240838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
On Wednesday, a large-scale cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to
remain over the north-central and northeastern U.S., as a mid-level
ridge remains over the southern and central Rockies. Low-level
moisture return is forecast over the southern and central Plains,
where an axis of instability should set up from west Texas into
eastern Colorado by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
from near the instability axis eastward across Kansas from late
afternoon into the evening. Weak instability should keep any severe
potential localized.

On Thursday, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop
by afternoon across east Texas and eastern Oklahoma. As a mid-level
shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region, isolated
scattered thunderstorms will be possible over much eastern Oklahoma
extending eastward into the Ozarks. Instability and deep-layer shear
should be enough for a marginal severe threat in these areas. This
potential is forecast to shift southward into southeast Texas on
Friday, as a cold front advances toward the Gulf Coast.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level ridge is forecast over the
western U.S., as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central
and eastern U.S. An axis of instability may develop over parts of
the southern and central High Plains each afternoon, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Any severe threat associated with
the storms is expected to be localized.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 250854
SWOD48
SPC AC 250853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in
place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central
Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the
Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red
River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe
threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any
threat.

The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states
on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front
from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat
could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear
is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe
threat marginal.

Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast
across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late
afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on
Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the
southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and
deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe
threat both on Friday and Saturday.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this
feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High
Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer
shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting
factor concerning any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 260749
SWOD48
SPC AC 260747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic this weekend as weak
upper ridging builds into the central U.S. and an upper-low meanders
over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough will then develop and
gradually amplify over the Upper MS Valley through early next week.
A surface cold front will sag southward through the day on Day
4/Friday across portions of the southern Plains into the Lower MS
Valley, where rich moisture and appreciable instability will be in
place to support a threat for at least scattered strong
thunderstorms. By the weekend into early next week, surface lee
troughing across the Plains will encourage the northwestward
advection of low-level moisture beneath modest lapse rates,
resulting in marginal to moderate instability across the High Plains
Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday. Southeasterly 850 mb winds, overspread by northwesterly flow at 500 mb, may encourage enough wind shear to
support isolated severe storms along the central High Plains
Saturday-Tuesday.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 270752
SWOD48
SPC AC 270751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the
U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into
early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains
states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to
support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any
severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a
positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada
into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a
progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool,
stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the
MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could
occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day
8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing
of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at
this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 280751
SWOD48
SPC AC 280750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughs will impinge on the West and East Coasts while upper
ridging dominates the Interior West early next week, before a
mid-level trough develops and rapidly amplifies across the eastern
half of the CONUS through the middle of next week. Through the early
part of the week, surface lee troughing, amid weaker deep-layer flow
fields, will support meandering moisture across the central U.S.,
accompanied by thunderstorm chances. As the aforementioned mid-level
trough amplifies, a strong surface cold front will sweep across the
Plains and MS Valley region during the middle of the week, promoting
cool and stable conditions. Given the strength of the cold front, it
is plausible that thunderstorm development should occur given strong
low-level convergence. However, medium-range guidance does not
depict a strong signal of overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind
shear ahead of the cold front, suggesting that if severe potential
exists, the predictability of this potential is too low to warrant probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 290834
SWOD48
SPC AC 290833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the
CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough
amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through
the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development
is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to
sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days
5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will
usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the
end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely
anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms
could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8
(Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and
magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for
the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 300846
SWOD48
SPC AC 300844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the
eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a
surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East
Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the
surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while
impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F
may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger
vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag
the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding
severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook.
Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms
with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds)
may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday.
By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of
moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability,
which may foster isolated severe potential.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 310851
SWOD48
SPC AC 310849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains
states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the
East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will
precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms
over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may
develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern
Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the
cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main
limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for
deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front.
Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still
support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the
Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture
return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next
weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader
cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough
favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated
severe risk.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 010817
SWOD48
SPC AC 010816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A pronounced mid-level trough will gradually advance eastward across
the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week into this
weekend, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations expected to
pivot around the upper trough. The upper trough and associated
impulses will reinforce surface high pressure and cooler air across
much of the U.S. between the Mississippi River and Appalachians
through the extended forecast period. The surface cold front will
encounter seasonably rich low-level moisture while encroaching on
the Eastern Seaboard, prompting the development of at least
scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, the best chance for strong
storms, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe threat, will be
along the central and northern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic
within the Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) time frame.

Meanwhile, as surface high pressure builds over the OH/TN Valley
regions, and the Interior West, seasonal moisture return is expected
across parts of the southern Plains due to surface lee troughing.
The aforementioned impulses pivoting around the broader scale upper
trough may graze the southern Plains, perhaps promoting enough
vertical wind shear atop a moist low-level airmass to support
isolated severe thunderstorms Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday).

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS48 KWNS 020835
SWOD48
SPC AC 020834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast
late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the
weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS
early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among
medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a
surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across
the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm
potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated.
Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River
Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains
states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along
with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week,
with severe potential currently appearing low.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)