ACUS11 KWNS 202252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202251=20
INZ000-ILZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east-central Illinois and west-central
Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 202251Z - 202345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely peaking now (as of 2245Z),
and should lessen with northeastward extent over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of producing tornadoes (and
a couple upstream cells) are tracking eastward toward the cool side
of a warm front, though they are still in a very localized corridor
of surface-based instability and 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH.
Therefore, the tornado threat is likely peaking now with this
activity, before it moves to the cool/stable side of the boundary.

..Weinman.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gobNgwzP8o71fsHgosdUf29QXWcxX4oe7ziNpNjLHlM19Ydt_F2-hgGQYub3ju-DuvJd4I42= s5aHadmaADbL06pqYs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40068795 40368811 40608783 40688744 40558723 39998677
39708696 39718730 40068795=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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