ACUS11 KWNS 202239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202238=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...

Valid 202238Z - 210015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.

SUMMARY...Several ongoing severe storms are moving into an
increasingly favorable environment for tornadoes across northern
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete supercells are tracking eastward
across parts of northwest/west-central MS. Ahead of these storms, a
35-kt low-level jet (sampled by area VWPs) is contributing to ample
low-level clockwise hodograph curvature with around 200 m2/s2
effective SRH. Given warm/moist surface-based inflow and this
enhanced streamwise vorticity, the ongoing storms may intensify as
they continue eastward -- with an increasing tornado risk. Large
hail and locally damaging winds will also be a concern.

..Weinman.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46TMqYfQFprYS-w_5oSANjHfU2kP_78RqykUtqxOqm0skERJOvkYSvzU-TE1nL1R_wQzlVKZ3= BapdNLcXBaSwkSD6Zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33249113 34288996 34538945 34538915 34428884 34208873
33278969 33019032 33029069 33099102 33249113=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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