ACUS11 KWNS 202209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202208=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi into northern/central
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 202208Z - 210015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for a few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, will continue spreading
eastward across central Mississippi into north/central Alabama into
tonight. One or more watches will likely be issued for parts of the
area within an hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, including a
couple discrete supercells and organized clusters, are tracking
eastward across northwest/west-central MS -- focused ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front moving across the region.
Over the next several hours, this activity will continue spreading east-southeastward along/ahead of the front into central MS and
eventually northern/central AL. Given an increasingly large
component of front-parallel deep-layer shear with time, there may be
a gradual tendency for storms to grow upscale into a semi-continuous
line. Nevertheless, around 50 kt of effective shear and upwards of
200 m2/s2 effective SRH (beneath a focused low-level jet) will
promote embedded supercells -- given strong pre-convective
instability. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will
all be possible. One or more watches will likely be issued for parts
of the area within an hour or two.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ixmtV-5LKyg3BFVYhRoSbGeMHavdkVNqHw8TItHdfYw-15oTnNquP8jgVEuEUx_GBCQIvTTn= _rFMSH6Tc3jzhMDLN0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32989086 33548972 34158800 34238722 34188656 34118610
33848577 33488565 33108570 32768588 32488637 32258714
32058824 31728978 31639025 31619080 31719124 32239134
32709121 32989086=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)