ACUS11 KWNS 202034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202033=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas to the Tennessee River Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...305...

Valid 202033Z - 202230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303, 305 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and tornadoes continues across
watches 303 and 305, though the potential for widespread damaging
winds is expected to increase over the next 2-3 hours across for
parts of northwest TN and far southwest KY. The greatest
hail/tornado threat will likely be focused across southeast AR into
northeast MS and parts of middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue to mature across eastern
AR with more isolated to scattered coverage across northern MS into western/middle TN. Convective coverage/close storm proximity has
resulted in destructive interactions of the past hour across
northeast AR, and recent velocity imagery from KNQA shows signs of consolidating outflow across northeast AR. This suggests that the
early stages of upscale growth is occurring and may promote an
increasing damaging/severe wind threat downstream into parts of
western TN and west/southwest KY. Strong low-level shear sampled by
the KQNA VWP hints that even with this storm mode transition,
embedded circulations will be possible as the line becomes more
organized.=20

Further east and south, more isolated to scattered storm coverage
has yielded more discrete supercells. Large hail up to golf ball
size has already been reported, and with a very buoyant and strongly
sheared environment still in place downstream, very large hail will
remain a concern for far southeast AR, northern MS, and parts of
middle TN. Recent WoFS guidance suggests hail sizes between 2 to 2.5
inches will be possible with these cells over the next couple of
hours. These discrete storms are beginning to display organized
mesocyclones and will continue to migrate across a warm sector with
STP values between 2-3, suggesting that the tornado threat
(including the potential for a strong tornado) is likely increasing
with these cells.

..Moore.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GGRO-AfcVBx1jmAwBFv0wyUSpmpBGnLl2Avp44WLjFrVR-TEHdaa7mFAJGKXQ5Zmqq5wrA2k= wbERl-8WKC1ZWNu3BE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34088855 33428979 33209028 33019114 33049165 33079194
33359194 33829166 34439133 35379044 35948999 36658954
37048932 37318833 37278790 37158752 36998732 36608724
35678728 34978759 34568788 34348822 34088855=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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