ACUS11 KWNS 201943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201942=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-202145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...parts of ern Kentucky...ern
Tennessee...southwestern Virginia and southwestern West Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 302...

Valid 201942Z - 202145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 302 continues.

SUMMARY...The line of storms overspreading the region could still
intensify and organize further during the next couple of hours,
accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface
gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...The narrow linear convective system has maintained
generally modest intensity as it continues to advance into/across
the Cumberland and southern Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Due to the
strength of the upper flow/shear, there has been little in the way
of trailing anvil precipitation develop, and the elongated
convectively generated surface cold pool remains modest to weak in
strength. However, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear,
objective analysis indicates the potential for continuing updraft
inflow of moist boundary-layer air, characterized by CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg, into the crest of the higher terrain. This could
still promote further intensification and organization during the
next few hours.=20=20

Where it is intersected by the line of storms, the quasi-stationary
to warm frontal zone, north of Jackson KY toward the Charleston WV
area, may still provide one possible focus for an evolving meso-beta
scale cyclonic circulation, with increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts and/or a tornado.

..Kerr.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-id8YbcGL3HbOX9AFtnmh2D5UMCq60VN7b2JgaEakZM_ykFXLTTQuk9H3JO9Uuq7cITfjI5-5= 1Up58XlRk-kdBaZj5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 37908321 38178292 38278166 37618127 36838151 36208251
35968368 36428344 37208312 37908321=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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