ACUS11 KWNS 201849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201848=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-202045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Northern Alabama...middle Tennessee...and
south-central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201848Z - 202045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream of WW 303 is expected in the
next hour or so as T-storms spread from northern MS and western TN
into northern AL, middle TN, and southern KY.

DISCUSSION...Sustained convective initiation is well underway across
central AR to northern MS/western TN as thunderstorms develop along
a cold front and within the open warm sector due to modest low-level
warm air advection. This activity is expected to intensify through
late afternoon and will gradually spread east. Storm-track
projections suggest that the eastern most storms across northern
MS/western TN should exit WW 303 by around 20 UTC and spread across
much of northern AL and middle TN through 00 UTC. Much of northern
AL was glanced by early-morning/early-afternoon convection, but the
region largely remains supportive of deep convection with buoyancy characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Further north across
northern middle TN into southern KY, a residual cold pool associated
with a late-morning QLCS has significantly limited buoyancy for the
time being. However, 30-35 knot southwesterly flow between 925-850
mb will advect warm/moist air into the region and promote
destabilization through late afternoon. (Warm advection is already
noted on the KOHX VWP between 0-2 km.) Deep-layer wind shear across
the region should increase through late afternoon as a mid-level jet
approaches the region and maintains the potential for severe
convection, which will likely be a combination of organized lines
and supercells.

Watch issuance is expected in the next hour or so to address this
concern, though earlier watch issuance is possible if open warm
sector convection can develop across northern AL and pose a severe
threat in the short-term.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3hmJZELo1r_EANfkDHuXlTiD-6s3hsp8-Kn1lQSoPNsTH0j2-rUadiy2n2wFMgyQYO_jzhyZ= 7iZsGipLZ5jnoaLmSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
JAN...

LAT...LON 33728825 34928796 36778803 37058803 37198777 37308666
37258613 37118588 36698575 34848558 34108574 33738608
33468667 33398732 33418786 33548814 33728825=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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