ACUS11 KWNS 201734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201734=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee and
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201734Z - 201930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming
hours across central to eastern Arkansas. Storms will intensify as
they spread east towards the MS River, and will pose a threat for
all hazards. Watch issuance is expected as initiation becomes
imminent.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery shows slow vertical development of
agitated cumulus along and ahead of a cold front across southern to
central AR with at least one deeper convective tower exhibiting
occasional lightning. This comes amid steady destabilization of a
residual cold pool ahead of the front where temperatures are warming
into the upper 70s and low 80s and MLCAPE climbs into the 2000-2500
J/kg range. Gradual elimination of lingering inhibition will likely
lead to steady growth/intensification of convection through
mid-afternoon. A 60-65 knot mid-level jet will promote storm
organization, though it remains somewhat unclear exactly when
convection will become sufficiently deep to realize the sheared
environment and pose a severe threat. However, by late afternoon
thunderstorms will likely reach sufficient intensity and
organization to produce severe winds, large hail and tornadoes
(including the potential for 2-3 inch hail, and strong tornadoes
with more discrete cells). Latest guidance suggests this is most
probable along the MS River across eastern AR into adjacent portions
of TN and northwest MS. Watch issuance is expected as soon as
convection begins to show signs of steady deepening/intensification.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6EEAcW2bK0JhVNUg0FmYP7Di7UEJy0pr4cwE-8j1GDqc3Ly25v8pwhYcQ_Fk68dTjRlqdK0JS= 4KuyKkXx1tGvBi3spE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33429278 35909202 36259188 36469136 36488932 36328912
35908912 35588913 33678984 33319001 33169021 33029065
33039272 33159279 33429278=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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