ACUS11 KWNS 200921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200921=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...northeast Texas...northwest Louisiana...into
central/eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...

Valid 200921Z - 201015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to fluctuate in their
intensity through the morning, episodically reaching an intensity
level capable of damaging thunderstorm winds. A local extension to
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #300 was coordinated with WFO Little Rock.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters/lines of thunderstorms are exiting
northeast Texas moving into northwest Louisiana/southwest Arkansas
and across central Arkansas. The storms remain in a favorable
environment for severe (MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and effective
shear around 50 knots. As we approach the diurnal minimum in the
convective cycle, and as the storms continue to pull away from the
best large-scale forcing for ascent, the long-term trend in
thunderstorms intensity had been down. However, recent reflectivity
and velocity data from area radars has shown an uptick in intensity
across area.

The expectation is that thunderstorm updrafts will continue to
episodically pose a risk for small hail, and more likely for
damaging wind gusts for at least another couple of hours.

A local extension in space for existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#300 was coordinated with WFO Little Rock to add additional areas of
Arkansas to the watch.

..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tsCZbfIiZ9NJRQfcbEO64nL0Lwq6sJhJFb-2mnIpTUAH3jp_JDYLAdqcGIeM5X-qHKw-cPmJ= e03WH5t2Pp3CRSiSEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32629569 34459399 35639256 35599101 33999110 33739260
32619331 32629569=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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