ACUS11 KWNS 200621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200621=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas...northeast Texas...and northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 200621Z - 200715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of wind and hail continue to move
east this morning. As they approach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 299, a new watch or extension in space/time of Tornado Watch
297 will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across southeast Oklahoma and
northern Texas where the airmass has either recovered a bit from
earlier convection (southeast OK) or was largely not impacted
(northern Texas).

The environment ahead of these storms remains strongly sheared and
buoyant with effective-layer shear greater than 50 knots and
most-unstable CAPE ranging from 2000 J/kg across portions of Texas
to around 500 J/kg along the I40 corridor in west-central Arkansas.

Given the ongoing organization of the thunderstorms and a favorable
downstream environment, the potential for severe hail and wind gusts
should exist east of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299. Either
a new watch or extension in space/time of Tornado Watch 297 will
likely be needed in the next hour.

..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!63wzGh5IXf6dEAX85Udd33pd68TIWToauRnePKeJherWg8yr3fe992jir4t95UqYScZDi0Zhf= mLcplw3H34NR8hgx7A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33919626 35009599 35409483 35379307 34869218 33509233
32389366 31969544 31909699 32589784 33479706 33919626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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