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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 20 06:08:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200607
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200607=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...southeast
    Illinois...southwest Indiana...and western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 200607Z - 200730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Wind damage and QLCS tornado threat may persist east of
    Tornado Watch 298. An extension in space of the existing watch or a
    new watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move east across
    Missouri this morning. This MCS has a history of producing sporadic
    wind damage along with transient to slightly longer lived low-level circulations/QLCS tornadoes.

    The environment along the path of the MCS Monday evening was
    unstable and highly sheared. SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment
    ahead of the MCS remains highly sheared -- 40-50 knots effective
    deep-layer shear -- and remains unstable -- with mixed-layer CAPE
    between 1000-2000 J/kg. SPC Mesoanalysis also shows that this region
    is a relative minimum in convective inhibition, which would support
    a continued wind threat/QLCS tornado threat.

    Either a local extension of Tornado Watch 298 or a new watch will
    likely be needed within the next hour.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BwvK21r2tiD2kyMmqaq7jVdRef-WbmP98Cy72pjIWVgcS8ViTUG7RymsuIZWw_6x-JZPnrSm= Djeg467aF73vx0I10w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 36638986 38259047 39128961 39168804 38768717 37658669
    36738695 36638986=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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