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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0897

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 20 04:41:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200440
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200440=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-200645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0897
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1140 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 200440Z - 200645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat may increase across parts of southeast
    Oklahoma and northeast Texas. The primary threat will be hail and
    isolated wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, convection has developed near the
    Red River to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.
    Additionally, an isolated cell has developed further north in
    southeast Oklahoma. These storms are located along an axis of
    low-level moisture and instability, where surface dewpoints are from
    the upper 60s to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be
    from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. These storms are being supported by warm
    advection, associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Short-term
    model forecasts suggest that storm coverage will expand in coverage,
    as a nearly continuous line develops and moves eastward across
    southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Hail and isolated wind
    damage will be the primary threats with these storms over the next
    couple of hours.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oPJ8TYEReRVo93Ows0ZMK8zIImdUnXOfOGxVjf8gt3gzqKzBuZtkvxN7KM6sem3jYXJcAFQV= Cw6NHfiIT-ALbzwj0A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32599698 32599558 32919489 33669457 34249459 34869504
    35019557 35029628 34669688 33759745 33189774 32839764
    32599698=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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