ACUS11 KWNS 200342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200342=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri...Central and Northern
Arkansas...Western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 297...298...

Valid 200342Z - 200545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 297, 298 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
central and northern Arkansas into parts of eastern Missouri and
southwest Illinois. A severe threat may develop over parts of
eastern Arkansas. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the east
of WW 297.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
to severe storms, located from central and northern Arkansas
northward into southeast Missouri. Other severe storms are located
in the vicinity of St Louis. Ahead of the line, moderate instability
is analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
located across eastern and central Arkansas, with the nose of the
jet in southeast Missouri. This is creating strong low-level shear,
which is sampled by the Little Rock WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2. This suggests that a tornado
threat will continue late this evening, with the threat maximized
with rotating cells embedded in or ahead of the line. The potential
for wind damage will be concentrated along the more intense parts of
the line. The severe threat will increase as the line moves eastward
into eastern Arkansas, where watch issuance may be needed.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cUVRA5lYGL_Pk46LCCsfrZ9jNaWLTycdoVMB12nK-GOz2cOIFB3wQm_8Cv6GvuocPnIi8DE3= 2FFAH3gZhHhejtGEpk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 34419338 34309273 34359183 34589111 35229043 36138977
37748917 38648909 39198953 39299038 39179094 39019118
38809137 38379149 37929170 37169193 36589223 35759294
35069376 34699380 34419338=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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