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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0894

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 20 01:58:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200158=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-200400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0894
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

    Areas affected...Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

    Valid 200158Z - 200400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue for a couple more
    hours across northwest Missouri. An isolated wind damage and tornado
    threat will be possible in the short-term.

    DISCUSSION...A well-developed bowing line segment is currently
    moving eastward across far northwest Missouri. The line is being
    supported by warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with a
    shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. The RAP shows a 40
    to 45 knot low-level jet in northwest Missouri, which is helping to
    maintain a severe threat. Ahead of the line at the surface,
    dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F, and temperatures are in the
    mid 60s to lower 70s F. This should be sufficient for an isolated
    severe threat over the next 1 to 2 hours. Wind damage and a tornado
    threat will exist with this bowing line segment. However, as the
    line moves eastward into a cooler and more stable airmass across
    north-central Missouri, the severe threat with the line is expected
    to downtrend.

    ..Broyles.. 05/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BdHFNvKj1i7h5lX8-CHoVcknDmnD2SorRyNw07bagYwIXAaXvJT2Aq6ruGH6OhVi8p5DpT25= V34p9DWARk73fgwEpY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38669441 38659306 39029238 39889230 40319266 40469379
    40399460 39989507 39609516 39109507 38669441=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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