ACUS11 KWNS 200002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200002=20
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 200002Z - 200130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated risk of marginally severe hail and locally
damaging wind gusts will persist for a couple hours. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated cellular convection is evolving in the
vicinity of a warm front draped across the TN Valley, where earlier
heating of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints)
contributed to moderate surface-based instability. An
elongated/straight hodograph (around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear)
sampled by regional VWP may support marginal/brief splitting
supercell structures -- capable of producing marginally severe hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. However, with shortwave ridging
across the area and loss of daytime heating, the overall severe risk
should remain too isolated/limited for a watch.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5zJ0I6gYk4JM2OPZgzgC5WpWFt8Wd9IZaMyLbXuIZSg3_jSMx9eHXTPVh7L2F24sZ9kQM0eep= bsr2ZjWapoCDyRzrbs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON 34358448 34678563 35298680 36018776 36428791 36778771
36978730 36918670 36258573 35698465 35148374 34848363
34358396 34358448=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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