ACUS11 KWNS 191751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191750=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-191945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into far eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191750Z - 191945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along and ahead of the dryline is anticipated by mid-afternoon across eastern Kansas. Thunderstorms
will quickly become severe given a very unstable and strongly
sheared environment as they spread east into Missouri. Additional
thunderstorms moving out of northeast Oklahoma will pose a severe
threat for southwest Missouri in the coming hours. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery shows slowly clearing skies and the
gradual decay of stable waves across eastern KS, indicating steady
erosion of MLCIN that was sampled in the 12 UTC TOP sounding.
Modifying this sounding based on current temperatures/dewpoints
within the clearing warm sector suggests only around -50 J/kg MLCIN
remains, with further reduction expected as daytime heating
continues and large-scale ascent overspreads the region with the
arrival of the upper-level trough from the west. Recent HRRR
solutions hint that thunderstorm development along and ahead of the
dryline is likely between 19-21 UTC, but temperatures are currently
a few degrees warmer than what guidance depicts, suggesting an
earlier initiation time is possible. Highly unstable conditions
(MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear associated with
the mid-level jet streak (0-6 km shear on the order of 50-60 knots)
will promote rapid storm intensification and organization into
supercells with all hazards possible, including very large hail (2-3
inches in diameter), and potentially strong tornadoes.=20

Additionally, strong/severe thunderstorms ongoing across eastern OK
are expected to spread northeast into southwest MO by mid-afternoon.
A favorable convective environment already in place across western
MO will maintain the severe threat. Watch issuance is expected as
soon as thunderstorm development is imminent and/or as convection
approaches the northeast edge of WW 292.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ocayVSbpEh2z-W1McDyag8ir0nozndTlD6zUiDxiNwUAJSe_vG1J3uRAgHmrLzs_cN-bFvlZ= r6z3O6HUed5aU8Kc1w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37089714 37379723 39739714 39939708 40069683 40139525
40099496 39969473 39739457 37649375 37309370 36949386
36839417 36909469 36959687 37089714=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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