ACUS11 KWNS 190121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190120=20
TXZ000-190215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

Valid 190120Z - 190215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues, though it is
unclear how far east the risk will spread.

DISCUSSION...A well-established supercell with a history of
producing tornadoes and very large hail continues across parts of
north-central TX. This storm is still in a very favorable
environment -- characterized by 270-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per nearby
VWP data) and strong surface-based instability. Given this
environment and the ongoing strong mesocyclone, the tornado,
large-hail, and damaging-wind threat continues. It is unclear how
long this supercell will maintain its current intensity with
eastward extent, as it gradually encounters increasing inhibition
(sampled by FWD 00Z sounding). However, the aforementioned strong
mesocyclone and large storm-size may allow it to persist -- with an accompanying all-hazards risk.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9TkakiX7hfHYFyNSKb2WZ8r9ldAsSoFwvBusXoh__GFwW4P-4hXQp1y6oD5anISeR9rxd8DDa= X46DRCN8xtM1tQzvGo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON 32609836 32839820 33059740 32969698 32639696 32399710
32319748 32289793 32369827 32609836=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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