ACUS11 KWNS 182021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182021=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...much of western Oklahoma...southwest
Kansas...extreme eastern Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 182021Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very
large hail are forecast from late afternoon into the evening from
parts of northwest Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. EF3+ tornadoes
may occur.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery clearly outline
the unstable warm sector, situated between a dryline from southeast
CO into the eastern TX Panhandle, and a warm front/retreating
outflow draped across northern OK into south-central KS. The air
mass has become very unstable, and will continue to develop
northward. This air mass is coincident with an already strongly
sheared environment with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. These
low-level shear values will increase markedly later today and during
the evening as the low level jet increases with effective SRH of
300-400 m2/s2 common.

While very cool air and clouds currently exist over northern OK into south-central KS, a strengthening low-level jet will likely yield
clearing later in the evening, which may allow the tornado threat to
expand farther eastward.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5b1dLKecTYyJmP6L-vQHvoJ26nDPnkzW2cjWi7OPhEwiGCB68Pby5G9g4pwsvsr2RAWKexk9t= dxldJDzgSZVbu6hLqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36550068 37090105 37990176 38200176 38680094 38760012
38589951 38059874 37129807 35549775 34719805 34419924
34559967 34700005 34930029 35840049 36550068=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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