ACUS11 KWNS 162347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162346=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-170115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 210...

Valid 162346Z - 170115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms should continue to pose a threat for severe
wind/hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes (over northern MO) over
at least the next few hours. Hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of 2+ inch hail
continue to progress east-southeastward along a quasi-stationary
baroclinic boundary over southern IA into northern MO. Along the
moist side of the boundary, 68 F surface dewpoints are contributing
to over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and given a well-mixed boundary layer with
minimal MLCINH, supercell structures should persist with a severe
hail/wind threat. Low-level shear seems weak overall, which may be
why tornado potential has not proven robust (with only one brief
tornado reported in IA). Questions also remain regarding how much
more 2+ inch diameter hail will occur given an increase in frequent
storm interactions.=20

Nonetheless, given ample instability in place, any supercell
structures that can remain discrete and/or dominant will continue to
pose a severe wind/hail risk, and 2+ inch diameter hail or a couple
of tornadoes are possible. The best chance for significant severe
hail and/or tornadoes will exist with supercells over northern MO,
which are dominant, discrete, and are in closer proximity to the
most unstable airmass.

..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ovWQgKsWCECWM1XaWEVGR5-M5xSbDBzy4fdNW1A6usKSC6a4CCpZ2OpV8IJpOywpBR_BkP1z= YX4EZy_GSfX81QVUt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41209519 41159391 41069341 40859296 40559257 40019233
39769265 39689309 39709353 40009414 40399473 40679508
40939530 41209519=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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