ACUS11 KWNS 162210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162210=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Illinois into far
southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

Valid 162210Z - 162315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized swath of damaging to severe gusts may occur
over the next few hours, with peak gusts in the 65-75 mph range
possible.

DISCUSSION...Transient supercells have recently shown upscale growth
trends, leading to MCS development, with multiple 60+ mph estimated
gusts noted over the past hour. Ahead of this MCS resides a
convective outflow boundary left behind by previous multicells.
Should the MCS further organize, it is likely that the MCS would
traverse this boundary, ingesting localized vorticity and
potentially developing mesovortices. If this scenario occurs, a
focused swath of strong to severe gusts may occur, with gusts
peaking in the 65-75 mph range.

..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gNi0-iLi9Sq5XsTQpzQA8Fr5aJfWQJY89a1kQtiWqS4mpAtCwFSAzTpHZtXsplXRvVVlOl9Z= GcOXyx_iRZE9UzPWZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38888856 38678748 38468655 38358641 38228634 38118639
38058655 37978686 37978710 38058766 38118821 38208860
38288884 38888856=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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