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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0737

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 16 20:20:33 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 162020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162020=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-162145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0737
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

    Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162020Z - 162145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is becoming more probable along a
    residual outflow boundary in Missouri and along a stalled front in
    Iowa. A watch may be needed by 21-22z.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals a gradual
    increase/deepening of cumulus along a residual outflow boundary in
    northern MO, along a stalled front in IA, and in the open warm
    sector into northeast KS. Farther east, slightly elevated
    convection has shown recent signs of intensification to the cool
    side of the outflow across north central MO. Continued surface
    heating along and south-through-west of these boundaries will
    continue to weaken inhibition (relatively weak MLCIN modifying the
    18z TOP sounding for 90/64 F), and thunderstorm development will
    become more probable. The backed low-level flow to the immediate
    cool side of the boundaries will augment vertical shear and support
    supercells capable of producing very large hail, wind damage, and a
    couple of tornadoes.

    ..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Oeg0HSDzKHM_oNUfyjGE5AP-n07hB4ETkIwB9XjvX7g_i8qGpljVjbcAkCd8rDKIrgZbpDse= uc9GbjlIbgO1bhmMXY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40079295 39759276 39339291 39239323 39509384 40069453
    40339500 40439552 40729569 40989553 41229457 41169408
    41039375 40449327 40079295=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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