ACUS11 KWNS 161913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161913=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern portions of Illinois and Indiana...much of
central and western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161913Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this
afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected capable of damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado. A watch is possible
and convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...An MCV was located over southern IL at 19z, and this
feature is expected to continue moving east across the discussion
area this afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary extended east-west
from far southern IL into northern KY and southern IN. Isolated
thunderstorm development was noted over far southern IL, and
deepening cumulus clouds were noted in the vicinity of the Ohio
River as heating/reduction of CINH takes place.=20

Despite areas of cloud cover, filtered heating will contribute to
moderate MLCAPE with values of 1500 to locally in excess of 2000
J/kg expected. Slightly stronger mid-level flow east of the MCV
will contribute to 30-40 kts of southwesterly deep-layer shear,
supportive of organized storms including supercells. Thunderstorms
should continue to develop/increase in coverage over the next few
hours, with a risk for damaging gusts and large hail. With time,
small linear/bowing segments may develop, along with more focused
wind damage potential.

The potential for a tornado is non zero, and will exist primarily
with any more discrete storm in the vicinity of the weakening
outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be locally maximized.=20

Convective trends are being monitored, and watch issuance is
possible by 20-21z.

..Bunting/Mosier.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pZuI8VK1IR06p1FqwDgpEhNSsRkC1mGnuhGD1FF4ldMY9YRhAXZnW0BqjTWu5gtXhzokZ82_= 1XuK93PkH_wYRi5lZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38558900 38828811 38778618 38798458 38598378 38088341
37478372 37178468 37128531 37128589 37128630 37098682
37058718 36898761 36938791 37068837 37518919 38078939
38558900=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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