ACUS11 KWNS 160529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160529=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-160700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 207...

Valid 160529Z - 160700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 207
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will persist for one to 2 more
hours across southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment persists across southern
Wisconsin where a recent 61 mph measured wind gust was recorded by a
trained spotter and a 72 mph wind gust was measured by a home
weather station. This bow will move into a increasingly stable
airmass as it continues east where low to mid 50s dewpoints are
present. Despite the weakening instability, some damaging wind
threat could persist to the Lake Michigan shore given the 50 knot
southwesterly low-level jet on the MKX VWP.=20

Despite strong low-level directional and speed shear, expect the
tornado threat to remain low given the 250-350 J/kg MLCIN (per SPC
mesoanalysis and HRRR forecast soundings ahead of the bow).

..Bentley.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-pssGnY956T24VJv0nOvYtqTgsvyZUiKj4Xo6LQFLiZS12G85Lbp8k9ry7HylCrfWNtx2OCtz= _2GPOzFXgdlFn7htrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42399049 42529033 42729026 43049023 43259006 43308970
43348879 43238805 42988784 42428791 42278845 42348985
42399049=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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