ACUS02 KWNS 040535
SWODY2
SPC AC 040533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be
possible.

...Northeast...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041743
SWODY2
SPC AC 041741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main
threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail,
damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A weakening upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec with a
leading speed max moving quickly out of the Great Lakes region.
Behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the
northern Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will move
across the lower Great Lakes during the day, extending southwestward
across the Ozarks and into eastern OK where a surface low is
forecast.

Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the
southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow
aloft expanding across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley.
Minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm
advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture
toward the Ozarks.

...Northeast TX into western TN...
A low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern
TX into eastern OK and western AR during the afternoon, with the
main synoptic boundary slowing over northern AR. Models indicate
early day storms are likely over southeast MO, northeast AR and into
western KY and TN, dissipating by midday. This activity may
reinforce the effective frontal position into AR, where air mass
recovery will occur.

By late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near
the surface trough from AR into northeast TX. Given robust moisture
with upper 60s F dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective
SRH maximized over AR, tornadoes will also be possible. The
combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced
cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream
outflow/enhanced zone of SRH, a strong tornado is conditionally
possible.

...NY into ME...
Strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s F
dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the day, beneath
midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. Storms are forecast to develop
after 18Z from western into northern NY, with storms moving rapidly northeastward across VT/NH and into ME. Forecast soundings indicate
40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed
boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures
capable of damaging gusts. The strongest cells may contain hail as
well. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2
effective SRH depicted across northern areas, though veering
low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that
potential somewhat.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050509
SWODY2
SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of
the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to
northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper
Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected
to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX
into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent
into parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians...

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of
the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually
weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into
the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least
some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level
shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given
aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the
southern Appalachians.

...TX to MS/AL...

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization
is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime
heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible
in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly
flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as
early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to
develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly
transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to
the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model
guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near
northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged,
favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector
supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong
tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse
rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for
large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime
hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS
and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern
Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and
hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS
Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of
discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests
convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the
western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the
Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the
conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051746
SWODY2
SPC AC 051745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from
Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from
Texas into Georgia.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN
Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of
the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as
the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the
Appalachians late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into
northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it.
Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s
F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX
into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into
western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels.

The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist
air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms
beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and
overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear
likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS.

...Eastern TX across much of the Southeast...
Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA,
possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat
cannot be ruled out at that time.

The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after
21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells
may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer
combined with strong mid and high level flow should support
supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe
risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly
low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of
damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front
late as storms become more numerous.

Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging
gusts are also likely near the front.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC...

Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist
across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the
southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning.
This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving
off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just
off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary
layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s,
supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.

Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at
the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead
of this activity and the front, intensification of morning
convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and
linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow,
isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear
in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could
also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected
to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061715
SWODY2
SPC AC 061713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated
large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle
Rio Grand Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on
Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley
and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push
south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front
stalling near the central Gulf Coast.

To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern
Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at
the surface but elevated instability in place.

...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front
Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the
Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into
central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind
gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as
SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level
winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in
the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.

...Middle Rio Grande Vicinity...
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection
above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm
development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of
the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail
potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated
instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer
conditionally favor hail.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070520
SWODY2
SPC AC 070518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave
upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys
through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX
coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will
lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return
across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the
OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.

...KS/OK/MO/AR...

Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast
soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support
MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,
isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is
stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening
low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe
wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and
eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of
MO/AR.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe
potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and
cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across
portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest
shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating
warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms
are not expected.

It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe
potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave
trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing
within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the
higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande
in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.
However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at
this time.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071727
SWODY2
SPC AC 071725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday
through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks,
lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large
hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
With an upper low forecast to remain over Hudson Bay, a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward Friday
across much of the northern/central Plains into the upper/mid MS
Valley. Shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward
across the southern Plains into the Ozarks ahead of a
southeastward-moving surface cold front. An initially separate
mid-level low over northern Mexico Friday morning should devlove
into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into
TX through Friday evening. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the
period across TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast
states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low
forecast to develop over northwest TX by early Friday evening. A
surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across
west TX towards the Big Bend is forecast to gradually sharpen
through the day.

...Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas...
Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of
the cold front by Friday afternoon, the presence of modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should
contribute to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor
along/near the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern OK into
the MO Ozarks by late Friday afternoon. With moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest
cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds
through Friday evening as they track east-southeastward before
eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Confidence in
a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low
for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the
limited moisture/instability forecast.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should form by late Friday afternoon/early evening
across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast Mexico, as
large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough
overspreads this area. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in
place across south-central TX along/south of a warm front. While
some MLCIN will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that
moderate to locally strong MUCAPE coupled with around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the
potential for supercells. While some uncertainty remains regarding
how may supercells may develop eastward from Mexico into
south-central TX, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5%
hail/wind probabilities and a Marginal Risk.

Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central
TX in between the surface cold front in OK and the upper low/trough
in northern Mexico. Daytime heating should help erode MLCIN
along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central
TX, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas.
Still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained
surface-based convection will occur Friday afternoon/evening
along/east of the dryline in TX. Even so, have expanded the Marginal
Risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if
convection initiates.

Farther east into the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states, some
guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day
mainly along/north of the remnant front. This activity will likely
be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level
warm advection. Sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear may
support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated
severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Other strong to severe
convection may form Friday afternoon along the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze in northeast/east-central FL. The potential for additional
robust convection Friday night into early Saturday morning across
the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley remains unclear. But, some chance
for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an
isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight
hours.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080603
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along
parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, cyclonically-oriented northwest flow will be in place
over the central U.S. on Saturday. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains by
early Saturday evening. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level
moisture advection is forecast ahead of a cold front moving through
the central Plains. A dryline should be located near a triple point
and surface low extending southward into northwest Texas. By late
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across most of
Oklahoma and north Texas with moderate instability in place.
Low-level convergence will likely become maximized near the triple
point in southwest Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma, which
should enable convective initiation. Multiple storms are expected to
develop and move south-southeastward across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas.

The most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast over
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP
forecasts soundings at 00Z east of the dryline near Altus have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This suggests that supercell development with large
hail will be possible. At the surface, temperature-dewpoint spreads
are forecast to be around 25 degrees F. This will result in
high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat could persist into the early to mid evening, as convection
moves south-southeastward into northwest Texas.

...Gulf Coast Region...
West-southwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Saturday along the
Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through south
Texas Saturday afternoon and into the Gulf Saturday evening. Another
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast. Warm-advection related storms are forecast to move southeastward
from southern Mississippi and southern Georgia into northern Florida
during the day. These storms could be associated with a marginal
wind-damage threat. Further west across the central and western Gulf
Coast, onshore flow should result in convection along coastal
convergence boundaries during the afternoon. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast for isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081732
SWODY2
SPC AC 081730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may
develop across parts of the southern/central Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat is also forecast
along much of the Gulf Coast, portions of the Great Lakes, and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern states, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the
central High Plains by Saturday evening. Modest/shallow low-level
moisture should advance northward from TX/OK into the central High
Plains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Initially
high-based convection should form across southeast WY/northeast CO
Saturday afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward in a
weakly unstable but well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated severe gusts
should be the main threat with this activity, but some hail could
also occur with the stronger cores given cold mid-level temperatures
and strong deep-layer shear.

Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across the eastern TX Panhandle
through the day, with a surface dryline extending southward from
this low across west TX. Most guidance suggests moderate to locally
strong instability will develop to the east of the dryline across
western OK and vicinity through peak heating, with minimal MLCIN
present. However, overall large-scale forcing will remain
weak/nebulous, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough across
the central High Plains through Saturday evening. Still, at least
isolated convective initiation appears plausible along/near the
dryline and surface triple point. Any convection which forms and can
be sustained through the evening would tend to become supercellular
and pose a threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds.

There is also some signal for a convective cluster to spread
southeastward from KS into OK late Saturday evening through early
Sunday morning. If this occurs, then a continued threat for isolated severe/damaging winds and hail may persist through the end of the
period. Accordingly, the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern
Plains have been adjusted based on these latest guidance trends.

...Coastal/South Texas into the Southeast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period across parts of the lower MS Valley and Central
Gulf Coast states along/near a stalled surface front. Given
sufficiently strong westerly mid-level flow and related deep-layer
shear to support updraft organization, this convection may pose an
isolated hail/damaging wind threat as it moves generally
east-southeastward through Saturday afternoon into a gradually
destabilizing airmass.

Farther west, a southern-stream mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move eastward across coastal/south TX through the day.
The presence of a rich/moist low-level airmass beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates amid strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally support a severe threat with any cells that can
persist/develop. This potential remains somewhat unclear, as better
forcing aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will
tend to shift eastward over the western Gulf through the day. Still,
at least isolated large hail and damaging winds could occur, which
supports expanding the Marginal Risk into parts of south TX.

...Great Lakes...
A strong mid/upper-level jet embedded within the larger-scale upper
troughing centered over eastern Canada will overspread the southern
Great Lakes on Saturday. Although low-level moisture will remain
limited ahead of a cold front, daytime heating should aid in
steepening low-level lapse rates by early Saturday afternoon, with
weak MLCAPE forecast to develop. A broken band of thunderstorms
should form and pose some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps hail
given 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. This convection will likely
weaken through the evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass
with eastward extent into the upper OH Valley and Appalachians.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday
afternoon across parts of southeast PA into MD/DE/NJ, where a weakly
unstable but strongly sheared environment should support some
updraft organization. Overall instability appears marginal to
support supercells, but hail and damaging winds could occur with the
strongest cores as they move quickly eastward and off the Atlantic
Coast by Saturday evening.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090601
SWODY2
SPC AC 090600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust
appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and
central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and
severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of
west-central, central and north Texas.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
southeastward into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southward across an area from west and north
Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 65 to 70 F range, which will
contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based
convective initiation is expected around midday, as surface warming
takes place and low-level convergence increases near the front.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop, with a
large complex of storms moving southeastward across north and
central Texas during the afternoon.

South of the front over much of the southern Plains, model forecasts
increase MLCAPE into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Also,
850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km
ahead of the front. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40
knot range, will be favorable for semi-discrete supercells with
large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible in areas that destabilize the most, particularly across
parts of west-central and north-central Texas. In addition, 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, exceeding 9 C/km in
some areas. As cells increase in coverage and merge during the mid
to late afternoon, MCS development will be possible. The very steep
low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage threat. If a cold
pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat would likely increase
during the late afternoon, and wind gusts above 70 mph would be
possible.

Further east-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely
spaced. The environment will be characterized by moderate deep-layer
shear and sufficient instability for a severe threat. Damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.

...Southeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place on Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Surface dewpoints will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
limited, convergence boundaries appear likely to develop inland from
the coastal areas during the afternoon. Storms that can form along
these favored zones may have potential for isolated severe wind
gusts, mainly due to precipitation loading.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe
outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.

...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night...
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain
ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies
will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the
wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave
over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward
across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in
the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the
overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the
day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least
isolated wind damage and large hail.

Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday
afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern
extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated
convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by
early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as
surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath
an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km.
Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with
modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering
convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat
discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell
potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large
hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with
upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will
likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.


...FL Sunday afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support
sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more
probable zone for development will be skewed to the central
peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the
low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be the main threats.

..Thompson.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100544
SWODY2
SPC AC 100542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on
Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid
60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass.
Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and
along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during
the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts,
mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be
possible in areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

... Overview ...

As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.


... Southeast US ...

Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.

Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the
surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold
front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the
afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an
instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central
Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6
km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates
are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This
environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and
steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest
into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a
locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN INDIANA AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin. Additional storms
capable of damaging winds will be possible across the eastern
Florida peninsula.

... Overview ...

The midlevel pattern will further amplify on Tuesday with a
negatively tilted tough moving onshore in the Pacific northwest.
This trough will aid the amplification of a downstream ridge over
the Rockies, and the amplification of this ridge will support the
subsequent downstream amplification of a trough over the eastern US.
Embedded within the eastern US trough, a closed midlevel low will
migrate southeast from Canada at the start of the period to being
over the Upper Great Lakes by the end. At the same time, a weak
midlevel vorticity maximum will weaken as it moves east across the
northern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula as it is absorbed into
the larger scale longwave trough.

At the surface, a remnant cold front will continue slowly sagging
south across the Florida Peninsula as a weak low/associated MCS
moves across the state from west to east. Farther north and west,
another low will move east from the Northern Plains across central
Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. As this occurs, strengthening
lower-tropospheric northerly flow across the central US will push a
cold front south across the central US.


... Southeast Kansas/Northern Oklahoma into Southern Wisconsin and
Northwest Indiana ...

Southerly low-level flow will attempt to transport Gulf moisture
northward into the Central Plains northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes during the morning and early afternoon. This will occur along
the western periphery of an eastern US anticyclone and ahead of
south/southeast moving cold front. Atop this moisture return,
large-scale subsidence associated with the eastern portions of the
midlevel ridge across the Rockies will support warming lower
tropospheric temperatures. These warm low level temperatures will
provide a cap across the central US which should inhibit
thunderstorm development for much of the day and promote
uninterrupted northward moisture advection. The result will be
surface dewpoints rising into perhaps the low 50Fs as far north as
southern Wisconsin by early afternoon.

As diurnal heating warms this modified Gulf airmass, MUCAPE values
will struggle to increase to around 1250 J/kg across the southern
Central Plains to around 250 J/kg across Wisconsin owing to poor
lapse rates from the warm low-to-midlevel temperatures. That said,
at least isolated thunderstorms should develop across northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin to the south of the surface low, where
surface convergence is greatest along the advancing front. As the
eastern US midlevel trough amplifies, the associated midlevel jet
will strengthen during the afternoon and evening across the Central
Plains. This kinematic profile will support at least a marginal wind
threat with any sustained thunderstorm.

To the south and west, slightly better low level moisture will
support greater instability, but warmer temperatures aloft and
weakening surface convergence will potentially limit thunderstorm
coverage. However, a marginal wind and hail threat will be possible
with any sustained thunderstorm.


... Eastern Florida Peninsula ...

Numerous thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening
associated with the aforementioned sagging front and midlevel wave
moving across the region. High precipitable water values, long
hodographs within the cloud layer, and tall, skinny buoyancy
profiles will support the potential for a couple of wet damaging
downbursts with the strongest cores.


... Interior Oregon ...

During the late afternoon and overnight a vigorous, negatively
tilted midlevel trough will move into the area. Although low levels
will remain very dry, increasing midlevel moisture and midlevel
instability may be sufficient for a couple of thunderstorms. A very
dry sub-cloud layer and strong 700-500 millibar flow may support a
couple of isolated damaging wind gusts should thunderstorms develop.
Confidence in this scenario is too low to warrant unconditional wind probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120541
SWODY2
SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121734
SWODY2
SPC AC 121733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts are the primary hazard.

...Northern Rockies and High Plains into northern Utah...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough over western OR/WA will move
east across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains as a
downstream ridge shifts east into the Upper Midwest by early
Thursday morning. An attendant 80-90 kt 500 mb speed max will
overspread ID/MT by peak heating as a cold front sweeps east across
portions of the northern Rockies into the northern parts of the
Great Basin. Forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization will
lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint
depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Increasing flow
through the cloud-bearing layer will result in relatively swift
storm motions within pre-conditioned, dry-adiabatic 0-3 km lapse
rates. Isolated to scattered storms developing over the higher
terrain will move into the lower elevations and increase in coverage
as a couple of linear clusters evolve towards early evening across
central MT, and to a lesser degree, across eastern ID. The primary
risk will be severe gusts (60-80 mph) accompanying the stronger
cores and outflow. Farther south, very deeply mixed boundary layers
evident in forecast soundings across northern UT into southern ID
will favor severe gusts with the stronger cores.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough initially over the central Great Lakes will
move east-southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic
states vicinity during the period. Strong cyclonically curved,
500-mb flow (50+ kt) will move through the base of the trough. A
surface low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold
front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will
contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during
the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead
to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms
forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to
steepen by midday/early afternoon, lending the potential for several
stronger thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk for wind damage
and localized severe gusts.

...TX Panhandle...
Despite a 500-mb ridge overhead, very strong boundary layer heating
may sufficiently erode convective inhibition and yield a couple of thunderstorms developing near the Caprock (22-00 UTC). Very steep
lapse rates will support an isolated risk for hail/wind if sustained
storms develop. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130600
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131723
SWODY2
SPC AC 131722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Prominent mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward Thursday as a flanking upper low moves
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A second upper trough, and
associated southern stream shortwave, will move out of the Rockies
and into the Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Ascent from this
trough will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the central
High Plains, south of a cold front advancing through the upper
Midwest. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the lee low will
allow destabilization and increased thunderstorm chances along a
trailing dryline from the central Plains to the southern High
Plains.

...Central KS into the MO and central MS Valley...
As the southern lee low deepens ahead of the southern stream
shortwave trough, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will
quickly return northward into central KS. Model guidance varies
considerably on the depth and quality of the low-level moisture.
However, dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F appear plausible by
late afternoon and continuing to increase into the evening. This, in combination with ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates, will
support moderate destabilization (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along the dryline/triple point. Low-level southerly flow, veering to 40-50 kt
in the mid-levels and orthogonal to the dryline will promote
supercell wind profiles.

While capping is expected to remain fairly strong, casting some
uncertainty on storm coverage, ascent from the approaching shortwave
trough along with diurnal heating should remove inhibition.
Convective development is possible near the surface low, or
originating within the more deeply mixed air mass to the west of the
dryline, by late afternoon/early evening. Large hail would be likely
initially, along with some potential for severe wind gusts given the
dry boundary layer. As these storms encounter the increasing surface
moisture, gradual intensification of a few supercells is possible.
The increase in the low-level jet after 00z could support additional development, while also increasing low-level shear. A tornado is
possible with any supercells able to remain discrete near sunset
given 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2.

Eventually, storms should congeal into a cluster and spread eastward
into MO and the mid MS Valley overnight. Some hail and damaging gust
threat remain possible into early D3/Friday.

...Southern and central High Plains...
To the west of the dryline, robust heating and deep vertical mixing
should support the development of weak instability atop a relatively
dry boundary layer. By mid afternoon, high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected from eastern CO, western KS into parts of
the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM. While buoyancy appears quite
limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
lowest 3 km will likely support stronger downdrafts with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible given
the dry sub cloud layer.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the
central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level
disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward
across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS
River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest
deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with
continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the
east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along
these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the
overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River
Valley/Midwest.

...Lower Missouri River Valley...
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across
central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions
on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped
thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central
Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection,
including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level
storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick
upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the
potential for large/very large hail.

Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and
ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly
placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective
initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends,
15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward.
Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into
portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and
elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the
overnight hours.

...Southern Plains...
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9
C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through
the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the
dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates
should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late
afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based
convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support
strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint
that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop
as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable
spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward
expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for
this potential.

To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML
will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM
solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for
isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot
mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any
deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential
for a supercell or two capable of large hail.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains...
As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends
align.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for
development is most favorable near the Red River in southern
Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains to the OH Valley...
Amplification of the pattern will occur this weekend as a midlevel
trough digs south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in the vicinity of
southeast CO. Within the warm sector of the cyclone, an influx of
mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will persist from OK/KS into
the lower MO Valley and the OH Valley. Remnants of D1 convection
could be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of MO/IL,
with the possibility of an MCV moving eastward during the day across
the OH Valley. Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible
with loosely organized clusters during the day into the OH Valley.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible during the afternoon
along the outflow-reinforced front across northern MO.

The primary severe threat is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon/evening, starting in northeast CO and spreading eastward
into NE and adjacent areas of northwest KS. Upslope flow north of
the lee cyclone and westward advection of low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate-large buoyancy
near the warm front. Storm initiation is probable by mid-late
afternoon in northeast CO, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward toward southwest NE/northwest KS. Wind profiles with long
hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing very large
hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). Low-level shear and moisture
will become sufficient for a few tornadoes as the storms move
farther east toward the CO/KS/NE border region. Upscale growth into
a cluster/MCS will also be possible Saturday evening, with an
increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts of 65-80 mph.

Farther south, thunderstorm development along the dryline is more
questionable given a warm elevated mixed layer and (at best) weak
forcing for ascent. Still, hot temperatures/deep mixing could
support isolated, high-based storms with the conditional threat for
large hail and strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...
Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161735
SWODY2
SPC AC 161734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one
or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind
damage risk.

...Synopsis...

A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot
east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early
Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected
to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced
southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High
Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the
Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.

At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into
western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across
west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will
extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon,
while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and
into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA...

A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon,
particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within
an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front.
Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected
across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the
cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large
hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and
elongated/straight hodographs.

With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east
within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD
near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle
lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning
cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area
this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for
clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass
will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region.
Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height,
will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved
low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells
will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent
and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale
growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing
strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast
NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.

With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop
near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level
jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind
gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish
with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as
instability weakens and capping increases.

...KS/OK vicinity...

A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern
Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely
inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from
west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX
Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline
and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the
northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms
develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to
midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind
profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will
be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the
dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain
confined.

...Lower MI...

Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front
lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the
region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level
moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While
low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and
increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized
updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any
surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will
likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four
Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow
moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the
Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is
expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the
vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin
at the start of the D2/Monday period.

A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado
northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be
located across central Kansas extending southward into western
Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be
common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front
into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the
afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across
central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...
Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across
central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will
exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across
central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating
and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid
to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will
yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg
extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will
erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation
expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around
20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support
organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts.
Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+
inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this
potential.

The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale
ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50
kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening
flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with
broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing
low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach
250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in
combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support
an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should
discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will
be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into
southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented
somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms
near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists
for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of
the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this
scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska.
Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into
southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.

...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI...
Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of
the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some
risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that
recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with
thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying
of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning
convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY.
Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the
north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper
Midwest.

...OK/TX...
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and
strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into
southeast Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough, now approaching the northern Great
Basin, will move to near the Four Corners by Monday morning and then
eject northeastward over northwest KS/NE during the afternoon and to
the upper MS Valley by early Tuesday. This path will be along and
just northwest of a stalled baroclinic zone from the central Plains
into the upper MS Valley, such that the primary height falls and
forcing for ascent will brush the northwest side of the surface warm
sector from KS to IA. A remnant lee cyclone will persist through
the afternoon near the southwest KS/OK Panhandle border, prior to a
surge of the cold front in the immediate wake of the midlevel
trough. Downstream from the ejecting trough, surface cyclogenesis
is expected Monday night from IA into WI along a stalled front.

...KS to IA...
There are a few questions surrounding the forecast for Monday
afternoon/night. The northeast extent of the unstable warm sector
will depend on the persistence of rain-cooled air with morning
convection across IA/northern MO/northwest IL. This convection and
an associated MCV could continue eastward through the day across central/northern IL, northern IN, northwest OH and Lower MI with the
potential for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail. The
west edge of the remnant cold pool should modify by
afternoon/evening from the MO/KS/NE border area into IA, prior to
thunderstorm development along the stalled front (and immediately in
advance of glancing influence of the ejecting midlevel trough)
21-00z from central KS into southeast NE and western IA.

Rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints 68-72 F) is
spreading northward now from TX to OK and will be established in the
warm sector Monday. The moisture will reside beneath an elevated
mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates and will combine with
daytime heating to drive MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Mass response to
the ejecting wave and the typical evening ramp up of a low-level jet
will result in favorable wind profiles/hodographs for supercells
capable of producing strong-intense tornadoes and very large hail.
The duration of a semi-discrete storm mode is another question,
given the parallel orientation of the stalled front and the
deep-layer shear vectors, in combination with focused ascent. Thus,
the strong tornado threat will peak prior to upscale growth into
line segments along the front, with severe outflow gusts and
embedded circulations becoming the main concerns into Monday night.

...OK/northwest TX...
Storm development along the dryline to the south in OK/northwest TX
is more uncertain given little forcing for ascent. If storms do
form, there will be a conditional threat for tornadoes and very
large hail. A consistent forecast weakness in the flow above 500 mb
by late afternoon/evening does not appear favorable for particularly
long-lived storms if they do form. The more probable scenario
remains a back-building line of storms along the cold front with
occasional hail/wind Monday night.

..Thompson.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes Region on
D2/Tuesday with a surface low moving east across southern Ontario
and Quebec. A trailing cold front will be located from the Great
Lakes south into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
Southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing across this
boundary at the beginning of the D2/Tuesday period.

...Great Lakes Vicinity to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Some convection may be ongoing across the cold front towards the
beginning of the D2 period, with additional development likely by
the afternoon along the eastward shifting cold front. Enhanced
mid-level flow aloft and weak to moderate instability will support
organized storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated
large hail. Additional afternoon thunderstorm development may extend
into the Northeast with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains...
Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid
Mississippi Valley driven by the cold front and potential cold pool propagation. These boundaries will be the focus of
re-intensification of convection in the afternoon. Mid-level flow
aloft will be weaker across the region but sufficient shear for
organization should remain in place. A plume of more favorable
moderate to strong instability will be available across
central/northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. With afternoon
development, steep low to mid level lapse rates and moderate
instability will support potential for a few large hail reports.
With time, upscale growth will support a downstream damaging wind
risk.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181722
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley
Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an
associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great
Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the
central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough
moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.

At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains
disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through
southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing
extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and
southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries
associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for
diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.


...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England...

A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer
across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across
the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as
2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level
warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario
short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and
ahead of the synoptic cold front.

The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is
forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England,
where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible.
Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be
supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of
marginally severe hail are also possible.


...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or
ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of
the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with
southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest
that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon
across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development
anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective
outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains.
There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances
will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during
the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.


As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and
associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the
post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX
Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly
low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to
support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant
convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments
capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail
potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with
southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates
and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger
vertical shear.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe
winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

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