ACUS03 KWNS 031932
SWODY3
SPC AC 031931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.

...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.

Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040620
SWODY3
SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041913
SWODY3
SPC AC 041912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.

...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.

For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050641
SWODY3
SPC AC 050640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Gulf coast to SC...

A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the
central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and
some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the
progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.

There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support
at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing
near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification
into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong
deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and
linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of
damaging wind.

...South TX...

Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on
cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the
front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX
where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong
instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.
However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward
across the region during the morning and maintains capping through
the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051915
SWODY3
SPC AC 051914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid
Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from
the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late
afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much
of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e
plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid
progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with
veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few
strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the
front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong
deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may
counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional
late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in
nature.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060624
SWODY3
SPC AC 060623

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.

...TX...

A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061932
SWODY3
SPC AC 061931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS
Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio
Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.

At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.

To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward
toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070634
SWODY3
SPC AC 070633

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.

...KS/OK...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.

The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High
Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains,
with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across
north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based
convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into
western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.

A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle,
southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability
should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how
far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will
advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat
for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear
for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a
bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential
surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible
cluster/MCS Saturday evening.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday
morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity
may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through
Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based
thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the
front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or
more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging
winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated
severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection
across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse
rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas
into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
Sunday afternoon.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX
northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf
Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected
on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to
the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas...
At mid-levels, heights will fall across the Southeast on Monday, as
a trough progresses eastward into the Atlantic coastal states. At
the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
Southeast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place
inland across the central Gulf Coast and northeastward into much of
Georgia, South Carolina and far southern North Carolina. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday along
and ahead of the front, and near coastal convergence zones. Steep
low-level lapse rates and deep low-level moisture will be favorable
for isolated severe gusts associated with multicells that develop in
the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091906
SWODY3
SPC AC 091905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast Monday afternoon...
A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf
early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection.
Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday
afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday
night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will
progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next
digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley.
Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along
the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur
Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface
heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of
midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be
possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula.

...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night...
Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel
trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a
ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface
front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday
afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be
for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN
and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel
moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel
lapse rates.

..Thompson.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western
Illinois.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley.
Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm
during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the
front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan
out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday
afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation.
Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the
instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At
this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning
instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb
near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an
axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and
some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.

... Overview ...

The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.

At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.


... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...

Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.

Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.


... Central and South Florida ...

A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.


... Interior Pacific Northwest ...

A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will
contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the
instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal
severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become
steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111909
SWODY3
SPC AC 111908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians as well as portions of western and
central Montana.

... Overview ...

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will persist on
Wednesday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies, an amplified ridge across the central US, and an amplified
longwave trough across the East. Embedded within the eastern
longwave trough, a shortwave trough will quickly pivot through the
basal region of the longwave trough, taking on a negative tilt as it
approaches the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the forecast period.


At the surface, a low across Lower Michigan will move east across
the Great Lakes into northern New York and weaken as a new low
develops farther south along the front across the Mid-Atlantic
Region. As the initial low moves east, a surface front will also
move east across the Ohio Valley and approach the Mid-Atlantic
region by the end of the forecast period. Farther west, ahead of the
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies, lee
troughing will develop across the High Plains, with low-level
moisture beginning to return northward into the Central Plains.


... Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians ...

A dry airmass will be in place across the region at the start of the
forecast period in the wake of a cool, dry anticyclone from the day
before. As the anticyclone moves east off the Atlantic Coast, modest
moisture advection will develop during the late morning into early
afternoon. The 20260511/12Z guidance suite shows varying solutions
regarding the depth and quality of the moisture return, with surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper-40Fs in the drier solutions to
perhaps 60F in the more moist solutions.

The depth and quality of the low level moisture will have an impact
on the resulting degree of instability and thunderstorm
potential/coverage. That said, the degree of forcing along the
surface front should support at least a few thunderstorms despite
instability generally around 500-1000 J/kg or less. The overall
kinematic profiles would support strong, gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that can sustain itself.


... West-central Montana into Central Montana ...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the area
during the forecast period. Despite very dry low levels initially,
increasing midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates may support a few
hundred joules per kilogram of MUCAPE during the late afternoon and
evening. As strong deep-layer ascent overspreads this environment a
few high-based thunderstorms may develop before the low-levels
moisten. Strong midlevel flow and a dry sub-cloud layer will support
at least a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts. One potential
negative for damaging wind gusts will be widespread cloud cover
associated with the increasing midlevel moisture that inhibits
destabilization. However, even in this scenario, gradient winds will
still pose a threat for damaging winds with any forced convection.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120701
SWODY3
SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas
and far southern Nebraska.

...North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave
trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the
southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take
place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F
over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas.
Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by
afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In
addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping
inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening,
large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to
weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take
place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could
be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over
the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts
will likely be the primary severe hazards.

...Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS
Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the
CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking
poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance
suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow
tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An
elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap
through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable
airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale
ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to
erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor
supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe
gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering
can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east
towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast
to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday
night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering
risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing
an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys...
Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri
Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest...
Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in
medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the
positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of
storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or
MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold
front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central
Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued
low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will
likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While
displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper
trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to
support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be
behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms.

Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline
and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening
with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the
northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary
upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb),
suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential.
Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters
that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into
western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern
stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture
depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds
could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across
the central and southern Plains.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140739
SWODY3
SPC AC 140738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development is expected.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells.

At this point, the greatest potential for a significant large hail
and a strong tornado threat is forecast from central and northern
Kansas into far southern Nebraska. However, there is some
uncertainty concerning the exact scenario that will place out.
During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective
cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141929
SWODY3
SPC AC 141928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the
western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly
mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central
Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough
through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and
central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the
Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a
diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an
embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains
late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote
thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone
across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline
across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as
along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley
regions.

...Central Plains...
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the
central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective
initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the
surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely
exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast
guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could
pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale
growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms
propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly
good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective
environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central
NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best
convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were
adjusted northward to reflect this trend.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective
development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest
TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow
through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and
considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation.
While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range
CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection.
Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will
likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30
knots of effective bulk shear.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east
towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of
low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some
degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently,
isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across
central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the
order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and
effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal
zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for
severe hail and wind.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...
A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151930
SWODY3
SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
The primary midlevel trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday
morning will progress to the Four Corners by Monday morning. A
subtle, lead shortwave trough (now over northern CA) will eject
northeastward during the day from NM to western KS/central NE, and
it will reach MN by early Monday. A weak reflection of the initial
lee cyclone will likewise move north-northeastward across NE to MN,
along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The boundary layer will
consist mostly of roughly mid 60s dewpoints east of the dryline and
south of the warm front Sunday, while the fully modified (maritime
tropical) air mass will return to TX through Sunday night.

...NE to MN...
The elevated remnants of overnight convection across NE/IA, and an
associated MCV, should move northeastward toward the upper MS Valley
and weaken. In the wake of the early convection, surface heating in
cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and storm
development will become probable by Sunday afternoon/evening along
the stalled front in NE, in advance of the weak surface cyclone and subtle/ejecting midlevel trough. Mesoscale details are fairly
uncertain this far in advance. Still, the forecast environment
appears favorable for initial supercells with very large hail and
tornadoes, and some increase in the threat for damaging winds as
convection grows upscale along the front and spreads northeastward
into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday
night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandle dryline...
A relatively warm elevated mixed layer and no obvious forcing for
ascent both suggest that storm initiation will rely on sufficiently
deep mixing along the dryline, and that storm formation is very much
in question. If a storm or two forms late afternoon/evening before
the dryline retreats overnight, there be a conditional threat for
supercells with large hail.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160737
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low
will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western
Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central
Kansas.

...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...
A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes
Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners
Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of
the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast
across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period.
As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath
enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will
spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the
Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the
afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low
into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected
across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA,
where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.

...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...

Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline
and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day
2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles
are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while
also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to
strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also
increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph
curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop
within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4
inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible.

With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold
front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime
hours.

...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI...

Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing
convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI
Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place.
Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass
recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into
parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could
result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads
east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind
and hail risk appears possible.

...OK/TX...

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail will exist.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170732
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the
Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk
for primarily damaging wind and hail.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest
and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level
trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes
through the period.

...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward
the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This
may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail.
Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially
capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the
cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for
damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front
through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result,
probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely
scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon
across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better
mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support
potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate
instability ahead of the front.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171912
SWODY3
SPC AC 171911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold
front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the
southern Plains.

...Great Lakes and vicinity...
An ejecting midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley early in the
period will begin to phase with the northern stream while moving
eastward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will
move across southern ON/QC, as a trailing cold front progresses
southeastward across the OH/middle MS Valleys and into the southern
Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period along the cold front from northwest TX and OK to the middle
MS Valley and the vicinity of Lake MI. The stronger low-midlevel
flow will be confined to the area closer to the Great Lakes, where
some diurnal destabilization could allow an uptick in threat for
wind damage and isolated large hail.

...Lower OH Valley into the southern Plains...
Farther southwest, flow aloft will be weaker and convection will be
tied to the slowing front and/or convective outflows from D2
convection persisting into D3. Moderate to strong buoyancy (greater
to the west into TX) is expected just ahead of the front, which
combined with the relatively weak wind profiles, will favor
multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional
wind damage and isolated large hail through the afternoon. There
will be some potential for an isolated supercell or two to move off
the Serranias del Burro into TX where large CAPE will coincide with
the cyclonic side of the subtropical jet and at least marginally
sufficient vertical shear. Otherwise, the pattern will transition
overnight to a weak warm advection regime atop the cool air mass,
where elevated storms could produce large hail from northwest TX
into southern OK.

..Thompson.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180725
SWODY3
SPC AC 180724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms
within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will
also pose a risk for large hail.

...Discussion...
The mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will continue to lift
northward into Canada D3/Wednesday. A cold front will extend from
the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the
lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas. Near
the front across the Mid-Atlantic, sufficient deep layer shear and
MLCAPE will be in place to support a few organized storms, with
potential for damaging winds and large hail which supports inclusion
of a Marginal Risk.

Further south across western Texas, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop south of the front within the upslope flow
regime across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Though deep
layer shear will be generally weak, moderate instability and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of large
hail and severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181914
SWODY3
SPC AC 181913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the
southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks will
progress from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, with
a modest enhancement to the westerly, mid-level flow as far south as
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a
short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners region will weaken
while moving into confluent, mid-level flow over the central and
southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeast through New England and the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, with
an upslope regime becoming established over the southern High
Plains.


...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop
ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, along the immediate southern
fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer
shear. The generally weak warm-sector shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates are expected to limit the potential for a more robust
severe-weather threat. However, the presence of steep low-level
lapse rates will support locally strong up/downdrafts capable of
isolated occurrences of damaging winds during the afternoon and
early-evening hours.


...Southern High Plains into southwest Texas...

Surface ridging initially over the southern High Plains Wednesday
morning is forecast to weaken through the day with a narrow wedge of
50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints from the Edwards Plateau
into southeast NM, to the south of a weakening surface front. The
moisture will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to
support a corridor of moderate, surface-based instability by
afternoon. A broader envelope of moderate, elevated instability is
expected to develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday
afternoon into night, to the north of the front.

Low-level upslope flow into the high terrain of NM and southwest TX
will be augmented by the glancing influence of the short-wave trough
to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. The primary hazard will be sporadic large-hail
occurrences. Additional, elevated thunderstorms are expected to
develop Wednesday afternoon into evening across the TX South Plains
into west-central TX, within a strengthening warm-advection regime.
While deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker than locations to west/southwest, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will
support vigorous updrafts capable of isolated, large hail
occurrences.

..Mead.. 05/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190724
SWODY3
SPC AC 190723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the
northern Rockies, portions of the southern Florida peninsula, and
from the southern Plains to portions of the Southeast on Thursday.
Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A few thunderstorms will be possible near the upper low across
Montana. Limited moisture and weak instability will limit the severe
risk in this region.

A stationary front will extend from far southern Texas into the
Mississippi Valley and northward to the Carolinas. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected along and south of the front across the
Southeast and mid Atlantic. Additional afternoon thunderstorms will
develop across the southern Florida peninsula with the sea breeze
circulation. Storms will likely be sub severe, given weak flow/shear
for organization across these regions.

Across the southern High Plains, widely scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected near the front and across portions of the high
terrain from western Texas into eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado. Moisture will become more limited with northern extent in
New Mexico and Colorado, with dew points in the low 50s. A few
stronger storms may produce instances of strong winds and small
hail. Overall, the stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced
from the better moisture leading to low confidence in a more
organized severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$

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