ACUS01 KWNS 031924
SWODY1
SPC AC 031922

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/

...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.

...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040042
SWODY1
SPC AC 040040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.

...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.

Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.

..Thornton.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040600
SWODY1
SPC AC 040558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms
with large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today,
deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing
across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern
Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow
will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of
California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas,
with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of
strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into
portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.

...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to
strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a
region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western
Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the
cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates
will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind,
primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms
develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may
increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments
may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though
there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details
become clearer.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into
the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more
limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat.
However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support
downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.

...South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline
across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and
behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the
dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon.
Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The
low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding.
It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and
produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal
for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
However, a few members do have development further north across
northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary
risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.

...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041934
SWODY1
SPC AC 041933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track. Only minor changes
were made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest trends in observations and high resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 05/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/

...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.

...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050054
SWODY1
SPC AC 050052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible from eastern Kansas into the
portions of the Ohio Valley this evening into tonight. A
conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail
extends into portions of southern Plains through the remainder of
the evening.

...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys....

Widely scattered, strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening
along and ahead of a progressive cold front from southern lower MI
into northern IL and far southeast IA with visible satellite
indicating additional storm attempts into portions of northern MO. A
separate area of thunderstorms is ongoing within the open warm
sector east of St. Louis where hail up two inches in diameter has
been reported. In the absence of more substantial boundary-layer
moisture content, 00z observed soundings revealed the presence of
steep low/mid-level lapse rates are largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the accompanying kinematic
environment features a vertically veering wind profile with around
40 kt of effective bulk shear magnitudes and modestly strong
low-level shear (effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2).

Current thinking is that ongoing storms will remain capable of
isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
for the next few hours as increasing moisture content along a
nocturnal low-level jet offsets cooling in the boundary layer. The
threat should tend to diminish overnight as the boundary layer
gradually stabilizes.

For additional information on near-term details, see MCDs 640 and
641.


...Eastern Kansas into western Missouri...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have persisted this
evening across portions of western into central KS, aided by a weak
mid-level impulse moving through the central High Plains. A number
of high-resolution models suggest that activity will intensify later
this evening into tonight as it drifts east of the I-35 corridor and
encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in place across eastern
KS into western MO. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance
moisture transport into the growing complex of storms with large
hail being the primary hazard initially. With time, the models
suggest upscale growth into one or more forward-propagating clusters
with an increased risk for damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050537
SWODY1
SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to
evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on
Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will
overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem
with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting
through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low
currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting
through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners
region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream
from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid
South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast
Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK
Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move
into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the
Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south
Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by
afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the
MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through
eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front
trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through
the Red River Valley.

...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western
Tennessee...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO
into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the
area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower
and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in
central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud
forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds
and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the
potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air
mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will
support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings
indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such,
eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution
models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along
the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately
east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm
development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface
low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during
the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the
anticipated weak forcing for ascent. Large hail will be the
predominant severe-weather hazard initially. A few tornadoes appear
possible across portions of northern AR, potentially into western TN
from late afternoon through the evening association with any
sustained supercells. Here, the presence of a 35-40 kt low-level jet
will yield effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 amidst a moist/low-LCL
environment. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at
which point damaging winds would become a growing concern.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Moisture advection occurring along a southwesterly low-level jet
will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s within the pre-frontal
warm sector on Tuesday. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be particularly steep, the moisture increase combined
with daytime heating and the resultant steepening of low-level lapse
rates will result in MLCAPE of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg. Increasing
height falls aloft and convergence/lift along the cold front are
expected to support surface-based storm development by early
afternoon within the destabilizing air mass across portions of
upstate NY. The storms will quickly overspread northern portions of
VT, NH, and ME during the afternoon into early evening.

The 00z high-resolution models indicate the potential for transient
supercell and bowing structures, which appears reasonable given the
presence of a relatively strong, deep-layer wind field. In that
scenario, isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some
marginally severe hail appear possible. The tornado threat will be
conditional on sufficient instability to support more sustained
supercell structures. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained;
however, if it becomes apparent that stronger instability will
develop than is currently anticipated, an upgraded to level 2/Slight
Risk may become necessary.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051632
SWODY1
SPC AC 051631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks.

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.

Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051948
SWODY1
SPC AC 051946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across
northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow
warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer
remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent
18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb
compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts
some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR;
however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res
WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in
thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR
and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later
tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and
embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will
likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy
and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5%
wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 05/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks.

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.

Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north
Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Discussion...
Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one
near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and
another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface
with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the
targets of interest for severe storm development this evening.

...Arkansas...
A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the
cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature,
likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL
LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in
surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place
across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests
that additional development will be likely through the evening. The
shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given
strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become
surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface
objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern
Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development
along the front will become more linear and support an increase in
damaging wind potential.

...North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas...
Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas
metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface
boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop
across this region potential for large hail will be possible.

Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near
the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for
large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this
evening.

..Thornton.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060551
SWODY1
SPC AC 060549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.

...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports
supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...
A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061627
SWODY1
SPC AC 061625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and
central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk
into the late evening/overnight.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities
across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in
the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic
shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX
into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z
RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through
late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to
erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in
regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat
through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains
highest across southern MS where convection originating in central
LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment
(where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to
undercutting by the cold front later this evening.

..Moore.. 05/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070059
SWODY1
SPC AC 070057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast.
Supercells ongoing across central and southern parts of Mississippi
and Alabama into western Georgia will remain capable of all
severe-weather hazards for the next few hours. Upscale growth into
storm clusters and/or bowing line segments is expected overnight
with mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk focused from
southern Mississippi into central Georgia.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...

Early-evening surface analysis placed a convectively augmented cold
front from northern GA through central MS into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. The air mass ahead of the front is very moist, characterized
by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s from LA into MS and AL with MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear resides across the warm
sector with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 60-70+ kt. This
parameter space has supported the development of multiple supercells
ahead of the front from southern MS into west-central AL, amidst
additional strong to severe storms. The southern MS supercells have
a history of producing tornadoes, and based on the 00z LIX sounding
and regional VWP data, are in a zone of enhanced low-level shear
with effective SRH of 300-350 m2/2. For additional information on
these storms, see MCDs 658 and 659.

Convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that the ongoing, semi-discrete storms will gradually grow upscale into clusters
and/or bowing line segments tonight along the southeastward-moving
cold front, with the most intense storms being focused along the
low-level jet axis from southern MS through central and southern AL
into central GA. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will become
the predominant hazards with that storm-mode transition.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...

Visible satellite indicates multiple attempts at storm initiation
recently along the high terrain of northwest Mexico, to the
southwest of Eagle Pass, TX. Convection-allowing model data suggest
that isolated, strong to severe storms will become increasingly
possible after about 05z in the same general vicinity with that
activity potentially crossing the Rio Grande into deep South TX.
Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally favor supercell storm modes with a risk for large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be
maintained due to uncertainty in storm coverage.

..Mead.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070533
SWODY1
SPC AC 070532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...

Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa
vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing
through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present
across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern
evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on
Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the
base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from
the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western
Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf
Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,
with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries
serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.

...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a
west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern
AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a
warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level
jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist
boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing
into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.
That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates.

The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong
near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the
instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is
forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the
morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during
the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast
through the level 2/Slight Risk area.

Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to
generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will
be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts
with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the
cold front from late morning into afternoon.


...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...

There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm
development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the
location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based
soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a
stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment
with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't
expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for
supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect
to remain confined to the morning hours.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...
Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.

...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071950
SWODY1
SPC AC 071948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across
portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the
Carolinas.

...20z Update...
MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL
Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection
migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream
18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates
and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this
reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed,
though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two
will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push
southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the
Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into
the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting
modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly
sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end
wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable
of damaging winds.

Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar
weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger
updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by
regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with
nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent
CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail
probabilities.

..Moore.. 05/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.

...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080036
SWODY1
SPC AC 080035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...MT/WY...

Forcing for ascent attendant to a short-wave trough moving southeast
through the region has fostered widely scattered thunderstorms from
portions of northwest MT into central WY as of 00z. Moisture is
limited, but the presence of steep lapse rates (ref. 00z RIW
sounding) may be sufficient to support briefly strong storms capable
of gusty winds and/or small hail for the next couple of hours.

...Carolinas...

A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts
of southern and central NC along a cold front settling south through
the area. Weakening, low-level lapse rates and resultant instability
should limit any severe-weather threat as the convection continues
east tonight.

...LA...

A few thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity of the
surface front in far southeast LA amidst a moist low-level air mass.
The 00z LIX sounding located to the immediate north of the front
sampled MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg for parcels lifted from around 1
KM. Moreover, deep-layer shear remains strong (effective bulk shear
of 60 kt), which would conditionally support some storm
organization. Current thinking is that nebulous forcing for ascent
and poor low/mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit updraft vigor
in an otherwise seemingly favorable, severe-storm environment. As
such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included for this
forecast.

...Southern AZ/NM into TX...

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible overnight from southern parts
of AZ and NM into western and southern TX, near and ahead of a
mid-level low drifting east across Sonora and Chihuahua, Mexico.

..Mead.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SWODY1
SPC AC 080542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis...

An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern
Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains
on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over
the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken
Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level
flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere,
a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the
start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open
wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream,
short-wave trough will progress south through the central into
southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the
southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into
central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal
trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX
Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front.

Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the
Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement
into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western
extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast
to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday,
allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is
expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday
night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough
moving into the TN Valley.


...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks...

Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of
the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That
process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep,
mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the
potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the
Ozarks.

Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are
expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early
afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with
subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across
southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon.

Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along
and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of
effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less
than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively
steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected
to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the
initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper,
well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is
expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest
low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level
shear toward 00z across northeast Ok into southeast KS, where some
tornado risk could evolve. Otherwise, there is a consistent signal
across a number of convection-allowing models that the initial
storms will grow upscale into a forward-propagating QLCS that tracks
south through central and southern OK into at least north TX Friday
evening into Friday night. A transition to more of a damaging wind
threat is expected with that storm-mode evolution.


...East Texas to north Florida...

Late-evening water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity lobe pivoting
through the southeastern periphery of the northern Mexico upper low.
That disturbance is expected to progress into south-central TX
Friday morning, with a downstream belt of low-level warm advection
fostering scattered storms from late morning through the afternoon
from the upper TX coast to north FL. Additional storms may also
develop from the vicinity of the front south along the east-coast
sea breeze in the northeast FL Peninsula.

Much of the thunderstorm activity from the upper TX coast into
southern parts of LA, MS, and AL is likely to be slightly elevated
to the north of the stalled front off the coast. RAP and NAM-based
forecast soundings indicate the presence of a moist environment with
MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be weak, which may tend to limit updraft strength and
storm organization, despite the presence of 40-50 kt effective bulk
shear. As such, a level 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained with the expectation of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
storms closer to the coast, which could become rooted in a moist and
modestly sheared boundary layer.

Farther to the east across north FL, afternoon storms are expected
to be surface-based in the vicinity of the front and east-coast sea
breeze. Model soundings depict a very moist environment with tall,
relatively skinny CAPE profiles with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The
presence of 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will be more than
sufficient to support some supercell structures capable of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

An additional round of mainly elevated thunderstorms appears
possible Friday night across portions of the lower-MS Valley with an
attendant risk for isolated, large hail and/or locally strong wind
gusts.

...South-central Texas...

Forcing for ascent associated with the lead vorticity maximum
mentioned in the previous section may contribute to the development
of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the mid/lower Rio
Grande Valley into south-central TX from late morning into
afternoon. However, relatively strong capping evident in RAP-based
soundings cast uncertainty on eventual storm coverage, and as such,
a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained. The overall environment
will support supercell storm modes with an attendant risk for large
to very large hail and locally strong wind gusts, given storm
initiation and sustenance.

..Mead/Halbert.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081627
SWODY1
SPC AC 081626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 082000
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.

...20z Update...
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res guidance.


...Northern FL and southern AL/GA...
5% wind and hail probabilities were both expanded across the FL Panhandle/northern FL into adjacent portions of southern AL and GA
ahead of a persistent strong thunderstorms. This cell has shown
signs of period intensification to severe levels, and a downstream
18z JAX sounding sampled adequate buoyancy within a MUCAPE gradient
for storm maintenance, as well as very strong (57 knot) effective
bulk shear that may support additional periods of intensification
through late afternoon (see MCD #671 for additional details).

...Southern MS/AL...
Minor expansions of the 5% hail/wind contours were made across
portions of southern MS and southwest AL. Elevated convection
developing across northern LA will likely spread east/southeast
during the 09-12 UTC period, and may pose a risk of large hail and
perhaps damaging gusts. While clustered storm modes will likely
modulate the overall severe threat, sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer
wind shear should be in place to support a few stronger cells.

...Oklahoma...
The early stages of convective initiation are well underway across north-central OK with a more expansive cumulus field noted across
northwest OK ahead of a cold front (see MCD # 670 for additional
short-term details). Recent high-res solutions (notably recent runs
of the HRRR) compare reasonably well these convective trends and to
a recent 19 UTC OUN RAOB. This lends reasonably high confidence in
the evolution of the severe hail and wind threat across central to north/northeast OK through mid-evening. Although the greatest severe
risk will likely materialize along and north of the I-44 corridor
over the next several hours, the somewhat marginal thermodynamic
environment and widely scattered convective signal in guidance
sufficiently limited confidence for higher risk (namely 30% hail) probabilities. However, slight expansions of the 5% and Intensity
Level 1 hail contours were made to account for recent observed
trends.

..Moore.. 05/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/

...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090054
SWODY1
SPC AC 090053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and
eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas,
and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.

...OK into north TX...

As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded
supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in
OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN
sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with
around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to
continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity
potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the
predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more
conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For
additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675.


...ArkLaTex to north Florida...

As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far
south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air
mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling
around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the
instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours.

Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine
River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per
regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will
increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the
ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough
passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving
into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday.
Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with
time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a
moistening boundary layer returning north through the region.
Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather
coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds appearing possible.


...South TX...

A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this
evening will continue east tonight with downstream height
falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX.
Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually
increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico,
and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms
could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT
sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL,
which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the
region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090541
SWODY1
SPC AC 090539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies through the forecast period. A number of
embedded vorticity maxima moving through that large-scale pattern
will potentially aid in strong to severe storm development. The
first of which will track from the northern Rockies into the central
High Plains by Saturday evening. A stronger disturbance will be
attended by mid/upper-level jet streaks while progressing through
the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional, weaker disturbances
will traverse the Gulf Coast states and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes
disturbance will sweep east across that region during the day with
the trailing extension of the front advancing south into central
High Plains. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along
the front in northwest KS Saturday afternoon with a pre-frontal
trough/dryline extending south from the low through the eastern
OK/TX Panhandles into west-central TX. Elsewhere, a front stretching
from south TX through the shelf waters of the northern Gulf into
north FL as of late evening will attempt to lift north as a warm
front. The advance of the boundary across the central and eastern
Gulf Coast may be impeded by early-day thunderstorms moving through
those areas.


...Western and Central Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...

The cold front that has pushed into the southern Plains this evening
is expected to wash out with initially modest moisture return
expected ahead of the trough/dryline with dewpoints increasing
through the 50s Saturday afternoon over the far eastern OK/TX
Panhandles into western OK. The moisture increase combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an initially narrow
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon.

While large-scale forcing for ascent will remain negligible through
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle, strong heating west of the
dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it are expected
to yield isolated to widely scattered, high-based storms by late
afternoon into early evening. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will
support supercell storm modes with large to very large hail being
the predominant hazard.

Considerable strengthening of the low-level jet is forecast across
western and central OK Saturday evening, which will enhance
low-level shear and the influx of greater, boundary-layer moisture
content. There is some model variability in the degree of evening
moistening that occurs, with the RAP remaining notably drier than
the NAM. Should the NAM scenario be closer to correct, tornado
potential would increase during the evening with any sustained
supercells from western into central OK. An 5% unconditional
probability and conditional-intensity group 1 have been added to
account for that possibility.


...Gulf Coast...

Clusters of thunderstorms or a quasi-linear MCS is expected to be
ongoing at 12z Saturday over the lower MS Valley, aided by a
low-level warm/moist advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest
that activity may be slightly elevated atop a shallow, near-surface
inversion and rooted within a moist environment with MUCAPE upwards
of 1500 J/kg. The 00z convection-allowing models suggest that
activity will continue south/southeast and potentially become more surface-based across the central and eastern Gulf Coast from late
morning into afternoon. Generally weak low/mid-level lapse rates are
expected to limit updraft intensity, despite the presence of 40-50
kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, the potential will exist for
marginally severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts,
especially if a cold pool can organize.


...Great Lakes...

The pre-frontal air mass is not expected to be overly moist on
Saturday with dewpoints largely in the upper 40s to low 50s.
However, steepening low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield
a modestly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of around 500
J/kg. The destabilization process will coincide with gradually
veering low-level winds, which will tend to limit the magnitude of
low-level and deep-layer shear.

Forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough mentioned
in the synopsis coupled with convergence/lift along the front are
expected to foster a broken band of thunderstorms initially across
eastern lower MI by early afternoon. Additional storms are expected
to form farther south along the front in northern OH with the
convective band rapidly moving east into portions of western NY and
northwest PA by late afternoon or early evening. Cold temperatures
aloft will favor isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail.
Locally strong wind gusts will also be possible during the afternoon
and early evening hours.


...Central Wyoming into southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas...

Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave
trough moving out of the northern Rockies will overspread a
steep-lapse-rate, but limited-moisture environment Saturday
afternoon, fostering the development of widely scattered, high-based
storms. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will
support some storm organization with the potential for isolated
occurrences of large hail and locally damaging winds during the
afternoon and evening hours.


...Mid-Atlantic States...

A couple weak disturbances traversing the lower Great Lakes and
central Appalachians are expected to contribute an area of showers
across portions of PA and southern NY into New England Saturday
morning into early afternoon. Weak destabilization on the southern
fringe of that cloud canopy may support isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoon from the DE River Valley into parts
of MD amidst a weakly unstable environment with MLCAPE of only a few
hundred J/kg. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be relatively
strong, and the potential will exist for isolated severe weather, on
the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain
surface-based thunderstorms.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091205
SWODY1
SPC AC 091203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Plains...
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states
and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states. The
cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled
over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day
today. Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will
climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of
moderate CAPE by late afternoon. Strong heating along/behind a
diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm
development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail.
Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather
sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will
be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could
support the risk of a tornado or two.

Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western
NE/KS.

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of
LA/MS/AL. This activity will persist through the day and spread
eastward. Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit
the overall severe threat. But nevertheless a few storms may
occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and
hail.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic...
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today,
while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the
lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to
support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and
spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening. Gusty winds and
small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail
possible.

A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA
into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms. CAM solutions suggest the storms
that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be
sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust
or two through early evening.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091632
SWODY1
SPC AC 091630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.

Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.

...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 092000
SWODY1
SPC AC 091958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains,
Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of
Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy
across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per
recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along
the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as
the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged
HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph
gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening
hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential
may materialize.

...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida...
Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across
northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective
trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary
pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in
recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL,
convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to
maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and
poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding.
Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across
northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy
will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle...
Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western
OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into
the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along
the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge
slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and
guidance.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details.

..Moore.. 05/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.

Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.

...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100057
SWODY1
SPC AC 100055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.

...Oklahoma and North Texas...

As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.

Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.


...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...

As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.


...Central High Plains...

A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.


...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...

Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

..Mead.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100534
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress
northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong,
cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On
the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water
vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle
disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features
are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday
afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the
region.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes
southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern
High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the
day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may
occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over
northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic.
Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and
any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains
into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.


...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley...

Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe)
are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK,
with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front
across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite
boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north
Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is
expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian
Basin into the Edwards Plateau region.

A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector
characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with
eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg.
Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast
from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML
plume.

The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent
(see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by
mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over
west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear
will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with
decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the
warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large
to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the
vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm
initiation.

By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal
across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central
TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday
morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry,
mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold
pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75
mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The
damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time
Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually
stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150
m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to
limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS.

Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution
and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain.
Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of
AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into
parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe
storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the
front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail
will also be possible.


...Central NM into far West Texas...

Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely
scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep,
low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500
J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong
to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.


...FL Peninsula...

Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms
appear possible along the front stalled across the northern
Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The
presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg
will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging
wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101157
SWODY1
SPC AC 101156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this
afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
digging southeastward across CO. This feature will emerge into the
Plains this morning and track into OK/TX by this afternoon. Large
scale ascent ahead of this trough has led to multiple clusters of
thunderstorms overnight across OK and north TX, reinforcing
cooler/stable air down into north-central TX. While some recovery
of the air mass is expected, the primary surface boundary will
likely extend across north TX by early afternoon. Strong heating to
its south, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid
level lapse rates will yield strongly unstable CAPE (MLCAPE ~2500
J/kg) from the Abilene area south/eastward.

Thunderstorm development will occur first along/north of the primary
boundary and the organizing surface low over west TX. Initial
storms will likely be supercells capable of very large hail and a
few damaging wind gusts. Model solutions are consistent in
developing a large bowing cluster of storms that tracks across
north-central TX through the evening. These storms will pose a risk
of more widespread damaging wind and hail potential across the ENH
risk area. Activity is expected to weaken overnight as it
approaches the TX middle Gulf Coast.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101638

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102000
SWODY1
SPC AC 101958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The
convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to
surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance.
Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately
north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000
J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH
categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a
southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on
the expected 20 UTC frontal position.

Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the
Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight.
This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the
eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent
ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind
and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address
this potential.

Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have
transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun
weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new
convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the
south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s
along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be
minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms
through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional
short-term details.

..Moore.. 05/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110031
SWODY1
SPC AC 110030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts
of central Texas.

...Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas...

As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell
gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over
McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell
complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four
inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis
indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with
estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't
particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate
sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the
degree of instability.

Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned
above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a
broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder
of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of
75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very
large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or
two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should
diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow
dominant system.

The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late
tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep
South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the
boundary layer.

..Mead.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110543
SWODY1
SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

Within the base of broader-scale troughing over eastern North
America, a lead short-wave trough will progress from the TN Valley
through the Carolinas on Monday, in tandem with a mid-level jet
streak. Farther to the southwest, a vorticity maximum over western
TX as of late evening is expected to progress east through the
Sabine River Valley to along the central Gulf Coast Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Elsewhere, a strong short-wave trough and
attending mid/upper-level wind maxima will crest the western U.S.
ridge axis along the International Border before turning more
southeast into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will settle south through the lower MS
Valley and Southeast with low pressure developing along the boundary
over coastal SC or far southeast NC by early afternoon. Elsewhere,
an area of low pressure will track east-southeast through southern
parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba with an associated cold front
sweeping southeast through the northern High Plains. A trough will
precede the cold front with that feature shifting east into the
central Dakotas by early evening.


...Coastal Carolinas into the eastern Florida Peninsula...

Latest model guidance is suggestive that surface-based thunderstorm
development may occur as early a mid to late morning along or ahead
of the cold front from the SC piedmont into the coastal plain as
forcing for ascent increases downstream from the approaching
short-wave trough. Subsequent storm development is also expected
farther northeast along the front into southeast NC by late morning
into early afternoon.

Even with the relatively early storm development, forecast soundings
indicate the presence of a moderately unstable warm sector with
MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will steadily increase
with the arrival mid-level jet streak, such that some transient
supercell structures may evolve, especially in the vicinity of the
weak surface low. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated
occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail into mid
afternoon before moving offshore. Generally weak low-level shear
should limit tornado potential.

Additional strong to marginally severe storms appear possible along
the cold front, as well as the Atlantic Coast sea breeze from
southeast GA southward into the Fl Peninsula. The combination of a
moist and moderately unstable air mass (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg)
with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some
storm organization with an attendant risk for damaging, wet
microbursts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.


...Central Gulf Coast...

Increased forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough
moving into the Sabine River Valley is expected to contribute to an
increase thunderstorm development Monday afternoon across southern
parts of LA and MS, potentially into southwest AL. A moist and
moderately unstable air mass will coincide with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, with the 00z convection-allowing models
suggesting some potential for cold pool organization along the
coast. The primary hazard is expected to be locally damaging outflow
winds.


...Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...

A plume of steep, mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) will
overspread the northern Plains Monday, downstream from the
approaching short-wave trough. The boundary-layer ahead of the
pre-frontal trough will remain rather dry with dewpoints in the 30s
to perhaps low/mid 40s, which in turn will limit MLCAPE to 200-300
J/kg. Strong, diurnal heating in the vicinity of the surface trough
coupled with increasing height falls aloft may be sufficient to
support isolated, high-based thunderstorms by late afternoon into
early evening with the potential for locally strong wind gusts.
Thunderstorms may tend to increase in areal coverage later Monday
evening into Monday night across the upper MS Valley, aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. By that time, the
convection is likely to be elevated and capable of small hail.

No wind/hail probabilities will be assigned to the area at this
time. However, model trends will be monitored for greater air mass destabilization, which could warrant 5% probabilities and a level
1/Marginal Risk.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111215
SWODY1
SPC AC 111213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS ITO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida
Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western
ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are
embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH
Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively
generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes
the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through
the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and
adjacent southern Saskatchewan.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border
vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the
Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep
South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern
Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from
this low across eastern into south-central MT.

...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC...
Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently
ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity.
A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms
over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear
could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late
this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC.
Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few
more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD...
Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late
this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will
develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential
for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak
and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft
capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation
is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning
producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with
any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf
mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected
to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger
shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of
the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving
frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant
to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely.
Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer
shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary
risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts
capable of wind damage are possible as well.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111948
SWODY1
SPC AC 111946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...AND
THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this afternoon along the Carolina and Florida Atlantic
coasts as well as portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
The previous outlook largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Risk probabilities were removed across eastern GA
where latest satellite imagery shows limited vertical development
within a broad cumulus field, likely owing to poor ascent given very
weak low-level convergence along a diffuse frontal zone. Latest
HRRR/RRFS guidance depicts negligible convective signals across this
region through tonight, suggesting the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low. Severe wind probabilities were similarly
trimmed across portions of southern LA where cold outflow associated
with a residual MCV over the northern Gulf is spreading northward.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warming into the low 80s within
a moist air mass may still support convection sufficiently deep for
a localized downburst concern (see MCD #706). Elsewhere, the
previous forecast (below) remains on track.

..Moore.. 05/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western
ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are
embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH
Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively
generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes
the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through
the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and
adjacent southern Saskatchewan.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border
vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the
Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep
South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern
Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from
this low across eastern into south-central MT.

...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC...
Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently
ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity.
A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms
over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear
could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late
this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC.
Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few
more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD...
Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late
this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will
develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential
for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak
and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft
capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation
is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning
producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with
any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf
mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected
to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger
shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of
the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving
frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant
to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely.
Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer
shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary
risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts
capable of wind damage are possible as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120052
SWODY1
SPC AC 120050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a midlevel trough will continue eastward from the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley tonight. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
eastward across northern ND -- in the vicinity of an eastward-moving
surface trough/front. Despite limited buoyancy, a deeply mixed
boundary layer could favor a couple strong wind gusts before the
boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes. See MCD #707 for more
details. Farther east, a strong low-level jet and related warm
advection preceding the midlevel trough will promote isolated
elevated thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley into the upper
Midwest overnight. Weak instability will preclude severe storms.

...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms will spread/develop eastward along an
west/east-oriented diffuse cold front extending from the central
Gulf Coast into northern FL tonight. This activity will remain north
of the moderately unstable air mass over the Gulf. Across parts of
the eastern and southern FL Peninsula, a few thunderstorms will
continue through around 03Z along lingering outflow boundaries.
While locally strong gusts and small hail are possible, the overall
severe threat appears low.

..Weinman/Worster.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the
Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late
this afternoon and early evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
A front will settle southward today in advance of a low-latitude
shortwave trough crossing the northeast Gulf. A moist and
potentially unstable environment will exist during the afternoon,
especially across the central Peninsula where MLCAPE could exceed
1500 J/kg, although early day clouds and convection near/south of
the front leads to some uncertainty regarding destabilization
details. Regardless, storms should steadily increase in coverage and
intensity through late morning into the afternoon, initially across
the north-central Peninsula, maximizing toward the east coast,
although additional storms may move inland from the Gulf.
Strengthening mid/high-level winds will support upwards of 30-40 kt
effective shear and fairly long/semi-straight hodographs, which
could yield some transient supercell structures pending sufficient destabilization. Damaging winds and hail will be possible at least
on an isolated basis, and a tornado could occur as well,
particularly near the effective front. A greater confidence in
destabilization and the possibility of more sustained
storms/supercells could warrant a Slight Risk upgrade.

...Wisconsin/Lake Michigan to south-central Plains...
A shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward
and amplify toward the Upper Great Lakes through this evening, with
a cold front moving southeastward across these regions. Low-level
moisture will be limited near/ahead of the front, but advection may
be sufficient to counteract mixing to allow surface dewpoints to
reach the 50s F by late afternoon/early evening.

In tandem with the strongest forcing for ascent, and in vicinity of
the surface low/front, isolated to widely scattered development is
initially expected, and most probable, late in the afternoon/early
evening across eastern Wisconsin, with additional storms possible
farther southwest near the front across Illinois/Missouri and
potentially into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. Where storms develop/sustain, steep lapse rates and strong west-northwesterly
flow aloft could yield some severe storms capable of hail/damaging
wind.

...Western Oregon/southern Washington...
A few stronger storms with gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail could
develop late in the afternoon and evening regionally in advance an
upper-level trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Strengthening deep-layer winds and steepening lapse rates could
plausibly yield some stronger storms, although the potential for sustained/organized severe storms is currently expected to remain
low.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121200
SWODY1
SPC AC 121159

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early
evening.

...KS to WI...
A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.

...FL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early
evening.

...Florida...
A very moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula today, with
surface observations showing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is at or above 1500 J/kg for much of
the peninsula already. A shortwave trough is currently moving into
the central Gulf Coast vicinity, with continued
eastward/southeastward progress expected throughout the day. The
prevailing buoyancy coupled with ascent attendant to this wave will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Low-level flow is
generally weak, but the shift from low-level easterly winds to
moderate southwesterly aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. Some increased shear is possible in the vicinity of
the east-coast sea-breeze, with the strongest storms anticipated
near this boundary as a result. The overall expectation is for some
organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail, particularly across the east-central portions
of the peninsula.

...Upper Midwest through the Mid MO Valley into southeast
KS/northeast OK...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Great Lakes.
Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over
the northern MN/WI border vicinity, with an attendant cold front
extending back southwestward through northwest IA,
southeast/south-central NE, and far northwest KS. A modest
pre-frontal trough is in place just ahead of this cold front. The
shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward, while the cold
front progresses eastward/southeastward. Northern portion of this
front (closer to the surface low and parent shortwave) will make
notably more eastward/southeastward progress than the
southern/western portion, which will move more gradually
southeastward.

Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the front, but
with mid 50s dewpoints currently in central OK, the extent and
quality of this moisture will likely be somewhat limited. Filtered
heating and mixing could also reduce dewpoints. Even so, dewpoints
will likely still reach at least the mid 40s across southern WI,
gradually increasing into the mid 50s across southeast KS/southwest MO/northeast OK. This is expected to be enough moisture to support a
narrow corridor of modest buoyancy. Strongest ascent will be near
the surface low and shortwave trough across the Upper/Mid MS Valley,
supporting higher storm coverage than areas farther southwest. A few
high-based storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail are
possible.

Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected, particularly
from west-central IL into southeast KS. Thunderstorm chances across
much of this area appear low enough to remove severe probabilities.
The only exception is over the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity.
Here, greater low to mid-level moisture could still support a storm
or two. Shear is strong enough to support hail with any storms that
mature.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121955
SWODY1
SPC AC 121954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula
today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great
Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

...20z Update Great Lakes...
Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold core of an upper-level
trough beginning to impinging on modest low-level moisture south of
a stalled front near the MI/WI border. While moisture and resulting
buoyancy remain very limited (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE), steep mid-level
lapse rates and continued heating should support enough
destabilization for a few storms this afternoon and evening. Hail is
possible, especially with any storms elevated above the surface
given fairly strong mid-level flow. Have adjusted 5% hail
probabilities northward toward the warm front across the MI/WI
border.

...FL...
Numerous storms are ongoing this afternoon south of an east-west
oriented baroclinic zone across the FL Peninsula. To the south, the
environment remains moderately unstable and sheared, which has
supported a few organized clusters and supercells so far. Hail,
damaging winds, and a brief tornado remain possible with the
strongest storms as the boundary is forecast to sag southward
through tonight. Have removed severe probabilities and trimmed
thunder behind the boundary where the air mass has stabilized.

Otherwise, the prior outlooks remains valid with only minor
adjustments. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026/

...Florida...
A very moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula today, with
surface observations showing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is at or above 1500 J/kg for much of
the peninsula already. A shortwave trough is currently moving into
the central Gulf Coast vicinity, with continued
eastward/southeastward progress expected throughout the day. The
prevailing buoyancy coupled with ascent attendant to this wave will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Low-level flow is
generally weak, but the shift from low-level easterly winds to
moderate southwesterly aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer
vertical shear. Some increased shear is possible in the vicinity of
the east-coast sea-breeze, with the strongest storms anticipated
near this boundary as a result. The overall expectation is for some
organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail, particularly across the east-central portions
of the peninsula.

...Upper Midwest through the Mid MO Valley into southeast
KS/northeast OK...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Great Lakes.
Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over
the northern MN/WI border vicinity, with an attendant cold front
extending back southwestward through northwest IA,
southeast/south-central NE, and far northwest KS. A modest
pre-frontal trough is in place just ahead of this cold front. The
shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward, while the cold
front progresses eastward/southeastward. Northern portion of this
front (closer to the surface low and parent shortwave) will make
notably more eastward/southeastward progress than the
southern/western portion, which will move more gradually
southeastward.

Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the front, but
with mid 50s dewpoints currently in central OK, the extent and
quality of this moisture will likely be somewhat limited. Filtered
heating and mixing could also reduce dewpoints. Even so, dewpoints
will likely still reach at least the mid 40s across southern WI,
gradually increasing into the mid 50s across southeast KS/southwest MO/northeast OK. This is expected to be enough moisture to support a
narrow corridor of modest buoyancy. Strongest ascent will be near
the surface low and shortwave trough across the Upper/Mid MS Valley,
supporting higher storm coverage than areas farther southwest. A few
high-based storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail are
possible.

Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected, particularly
from west-central IL into southeast KS. Thunderstorm chances across
much of this area appear low enough to remove severe probabilities.
The only exception is over the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity.
Here, greater low to mid-level moisture could still support a storm
or two. Shear is strong enough to support hail with any storms that
mature.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130056
SWODY1
SPC AC 130054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely this evening and overnight. However,
thunderstorms remain possible across Florida, the Great Lakes, and
the Pacific Northwest.

... 01Z Update ...

All Level 1/Marginal Risks are removed with this update.

... Great Lakes Region ...

Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes
in association with a strong midlevel low moving across the region.
MUCAPE peaked earlier this afternoon around 500 J/kg and has been
decreasing with the loss of peak heating and should continue
overnight. Thus, despite a favorable vertical shear environment, the
lack of appreciable instability should preclude severe development
overnight.

Additional forced convection along the advancing cold front cannot
be ruled out across portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
However, the lack of appreciable buoyancy precludes the need for
severe probabilities.


... Florida ...

Ongoing thunderstorms across the eastern Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Peninsula should continue this evening. Given the
uncapped, tropical-like environment, additional thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out overnight. However, with the midlevel wave continuing
to weaken across northern Florida/southern Georgia overnight,
vertical shear profiles should also continue to weaken and limit any
severe potential.


... Central Plains ...

Convergence along the front has been unable to break through the cap
this afternoon. With the loss of diurnal heating boundary layer
stabilization should limit the potential for surface-based
convection and any severe potential. Although elevated showers may
develop overnight across southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma,
southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas, decreasing instability
should limit even lightning potential.


... Pacific Northwest ...

As a vigorous midlevel trough approaches the Pacific Northwest this
evening it will take on an increasingly negative tilt. Strong
deep-layer ascent and increasing midlevel moisture should be
sufficient for at least a couple of isolated thunderstorms to
develop. Although forecast soundings indicate a dry sub-cloud layer
beneath midlevel instability and strong tropospheric flow, the
overall thunderstorm coverage should remain too low for
unconditional wind probabilities to be introduced.

..Marsh.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130609
SWODY1
SPC AC 130608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN UTAH
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts are the primary hazard.

... Synopsis ...

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will exist across
the US on Wednesday. A vigorous shortwave trough will move east
across the northern Rockies as a Mexico-to-Canada midlevel ridge
moves into the central US. Downstream from the ridge, an amplified
trough will deepen further, developing into a closed low over the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region.


... Portions of the Great Basin and the Central and Northern Rockies
...

As the potent midlevel shortwave trough moves across the northern
Rockies an attendant 80-90 knot midlevel jet streak will overspread
northern portions of the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. At the same time, a cold front will push east across the
region leading to scattered convection by mid-to-late afternoon.
Forecast soundings continue to exhibit inverted-V thermodynamic
profiles and increasing cloud-layer shear. The result will be fast
moving storms capable of transporting momentum downward to the
surface. Additionally, the dry sub-cloud layer will support the
potential for some dry microburst potential.


... Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians ...

A surface low will move east from Lower Michigan toward northern New
York, dragging a cold front eastward across the Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians before ending up near the Atlantic Coast.
Toward the end of the forecast period, the northern New York surface
low will redevelop farther southeast along the front near the
Atlantic Coast.

Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should rise into
low-to-mid-50Fs contributing to weak instability with diurnal
heating. Thunderstorms should develop across the area during the
afternoon along the front, with additional thunderstorms possible
across terrain favored areas across the central Appalachians.
Sufficient vertical shear beneath a 50 knot midlevel jet and modest
low-level lapse rates would support a marginal wind threat.


... Texas Panhandle into the High Plains of Southern Colorado ...

Strong diurnal heating beneath the midlevel ridge may be sufficient
for convective inhibition to erode and isolated thunderstorms to
develop across terrain favored areas. Very steep lapse rates will
support a hail and wind threat.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131153
SWODY1
SPC AC 131151

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...
A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...
A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind
gusts.

...TX Panhandle...
A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131622
SWODY1
SPC AC 131620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and
evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.

At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.

Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.

...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.

Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.

...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 132000
SWODY1
SPC AC 131959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain
possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon
and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track.
Thunder and severe probabilities were trimmed over the OH Valley to
account for the passage of a broken squall line. Thunder
probabilities were also trimmed over portions of eastern KS and
immediate surrounding areas, as confidence for organized elevated
convection along the easternmost edge of a low-level WAA regime
continues to decrease.

..Squitieri.. 05/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/

...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.

At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.

Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.

...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.

Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.

...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140050
SWODY1
SPC AC 140048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts remain possible primarily over Montana
this evening. Isolated strong storms may linger from Virginia into
southeast Pennsylvania with gusty winds.

...MT...
A shortwave trough and surface cold front will continue to push east
across MT this evening, with severe wind potential persisting. A
leading line of storms is moving into northeast MT, with small hail
along with gusty winds. To the west, other strong convection was
noted near the cold front, with sporadic fast-moving cells. Very
strong outflow moving across south-central MT has also resulted in
measured gusts over 70 kt.

For more information, see mesoscale discussion
#0716.

...VA into PA...
A line of thunderstorms continues to push rapidly east into
southeast PA, into central MD and across northern VA. Though
instability is limited, this convection is supported by the
progressive upper trough. Several stations have reported wind gusts
in the 30-40 kt range, but 00Z soundings suggest a cooling boundary
layer this evening should limit severe potential.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140508
SWODY1
SPC AC 140506

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
height falls extending into the Central Plains.

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

...KS...
An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
over 2.00" diameter may occur.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141202
SWODY1
SPC AC 141200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

...KS...
An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...West TX/OK...
The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141623
SWODY1
SPC AC 141621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.

Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.

...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141957
SWODY1
SPC AC 141955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.

...20z Update central Plains and mid MS Valley...
Isolated convection may develop across portions of central KS late
this afternoon/evening northeast of the effective triple point.
Low-level moisture continues to rapidly advect northward across
central KS but deep mixing will likely limit the extent of the more
robust 60s F dewpoints. With moderate forecast MLCAPE (1500-2000
J/kg) amid veering wind profiles, isolated, high-based supercells
remain possible, mainly with a large hail and damaging wind risk.
Additional storms are also possible later tonight at the terminus of
a forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet across far eastern KS into MO. It
remains unclear if these storms will be robustly organized, but some
risk for hail and damaging winds may exist. Wind and hail
probabilities were expanded slightly eastward to capture this
threat.

...Southern and central High Plains...
High-based showers and a few thunderstorms have begun developing and
should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon. Weak buoyancy
(500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop a very deep mixed layer is evident on 12
and 18z area RAOBs supporting the risk for damaging/severe gusts. A
few stronger high-based storms could also produce marginally severe
hail across parts of western KS where buoyancy is somewhat better.
See MCD#718 for additional short term information.

..Lyons.. 05/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026/

...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.

Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.

...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150046
SWODY1
SPC AC 150044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts remain possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into northwest Texas.

...Northwest TX into KS and MO...
Scattered high-based storms persist from northwest TX into far
western OK and southern KS, with locally severe gusts. This activity
should generally wane this evening as inhibition increases. Farther
north into eastern KS, new cells have finally developed near the
weak wind shift and within the moist axis where dewpoints are near
60 F. Steep lapse rates aloft as well as deep layer shear near 40 kt
and an increasing low-level jet will favor cells producing hail over
1.00" diameter and locally strong gusts this evening. Area 00Z
soundings show that inhibition will increase over the next several
hours and may render most storms elevated. However, hail potential
may persist. Overnight, additional storms remain likely over
northern MO and into western IL in the warm advection zone as the
weak upper wave moves across the area. Marginal hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible.

..Jewell.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150601
SWODY1
SPC AC 150600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely
from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind
gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into
Wisconsin and western Illinois.

...Synopsis...
Moderate westerly winds aloft will exist across the northern tier of
states today, with several waves from the Pacific Northwest to the
Great Lakes. The feature of interest will move across the Dakotas
and toward the upper MS Valley late in the day, aiding storm
development and severity from NE into WI. To the south, a weak
shortwave trough will move out of NM and into TX, with mid and high
level flow enhancement along with modest cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop from southwest KS into the
TX Panhandle, with a front extending into NE, southern MN, and into
northern WI. Increasing southerly winds during the afternoon and
evening will bring 60s F dewpoints northward toward these
boundaries, with scattered severe storms likely late in the day and
centered near Iowa.

Farther south, very steep lapse rates and a subtle upper trough
should again result in widely scattered high-based storms producing
severe gusts over the southern High Plains.

...IA into eastern NE and northeast KS...
Southerly winds and daytime heating will support moderate
instability this afternoon near a surface trough which will extend
from eastern NE into southern MN and northern WI. Dewpoints are
expected to reach into the lower 60s F, and perhaps approach 65 F
during the early evening. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will be
cool, resulting in steep lapse rates and robust CAPE profiles.

Storms are most likely to initiate during the late afternoon near
the IA/SD border, and extending northeastward into WI and perhaps
the central MI Upper Peninsula. Large hail will be possible with the
initial cells, supported by 60 kt deep-layer shear. Hail to 2.00"
diameter will be possible even into WI.

Farther south into IA, the deeper theta-e plume and increasing
low-level jet will enhance the severe wind risk, with an MCS
expected to develop and move east/southeast across the region.
Damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph are expected. Additional
clusters of severe storms are expected from southeast NE into
northeast KS as well, firmly within the low-level theta-e plume with
maximally deepened moist layer to 700 mb. Shear will not be as
strong, but the initial development is expected to be robust with
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest KS into western Texas...
Strong heating will yield very deep mixed layers near and south of
the Panhandles surface low, while midlevel temperatures remain cool
enough to support instability despite very low dewpoints. Meanwhile,
the aforementioned shortwave trough will enhance lift late in the
day. The result will be scattered high-based thunderstorms, with
severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts over 70 mph may occur.
Cells that develop into southwest TX may contain marginal hail as
well, with elongated hodographs in the mid to upper levels.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151250
SWODY1
SPC AC 151248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and
large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening
across much of Iowa and vicinity. Isolated to scattered severe hail
and damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of
the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Generally zonal/westerly mid-level flow will persist over the
northern tier of the U.S. today, with an upper trough/low moving
slowly eastward over central Canada. At the surface, the primary low
will remain in northern Ontario, with a trailing cold front
extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central
Plains. A secondary surface low will likely exist over southwest
KS/northwest OK by peak afternoon heating. A dryline will extend
southward from this low across much of the southern High Plains.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along
the cold front/surface trough from eastern NE into IA to be delayed
until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as
large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave
trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually
overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist
advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability across this
region by early evening. While low-level winds are forecast to
remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow will support
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale
growth this evening across IA supports a risk for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a
localized basis given the expectation for an organized cluster and
ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur this evening as
low-level shear gradually increases with a strengthening low-level
jet. Some adjustments have been made to the Slight and Enhanced Risk
areas based on latest observational trends and short-term guidance.
Namely, the Slight Risk has been extended northward into parts of
southeast MN/southwest WI, where some risk for hail-producing
supercells should exist along/ahead of the front. The Enhanced Risk
has also been expanded to include more of western IA, as multiple
supercells may form and eventually congeal into one or more bowing
clusters through the evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Robust daytime heating will yield a very well-mixed/deep boundary
layer near/south of the secondary surface low over southwest KS and
vicinity. Mid-level temperatures will remain cool enough to support
at least weak instability, even with modest low-level
moisture/surface dewpoints. A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving
from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late in the day. This should support the
development of high-based thunderstorms, with occasional strong to
severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur
given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around
500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest TX may contain marginal
hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151631
SWODY1
SPC AC 151629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and
large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening
centered across much of Iowa. Isolated to scattered severe hail and
damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of the
southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest including Iowa...
A cyclonically influenced moderately strong belt of westerlies will
exist over the northern Plains to Upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes. The primary surface low will remain in northern Ontario, with
a trailing cold front extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains. A secondary surface low will exist across
southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma around peak afternoon
heating, with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low
across much of the southern High Plains.

Continued expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along
the cold front/surface trough from eastern Nebraska into Iowa to be
delayed until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as
large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave
trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually
overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist
advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability (2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) across this region by early evening. While low-level winds
are forecast to remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow
will support sufficient (35-50 kt) deep-layer shear for updraft
organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale
growth this evening across Iowa with an increasing potential for
scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75
mph on a localized basis given the expectation for an organized
cluster and ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur
this evening as low-level shear gradually increases with a
strengthening low-level jet.

...Southern High Plains...
While clouds linger at midday, particularly with southward extent
across west/southwest Texas, robust daytime heating will yield a
very well-mixed/deep boundary layer near/south of the secondary
surface low over southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Mid-level
temperatures will remain cool enough to support at least weak
instability, even with modest low-level moisture/surface dewpoints.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving from the southern Rockies
into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late
in the day. This should support the development of high-based
thunderstorms, with occasional strong to severe wind gusts expected.
Latest short-term guidance suggests a more probable zone of thunderstorm-related gust potential may focus across the Texas South
Plains and Low Rolling Plains. Isolated gusts of 70+ mph may occur
given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around
500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest Texas may also contain
some hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

..Guyer/Moore.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and
large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening
centered across much of Iowa. Isolated to scattered severe hail and
damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of the
southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...20z Update Central Plains...
Several areas of thunderstorm development are expected this
afternoon and evening across the central Plains and Midwest.
Moderate instability beneath 40+ kt of mid-level flow will promote a
mixed mode of supercells and eventually linear clusters. Hail (some
2+ inches) along with damaging gusts appear likely with the more
robust supercells initially along the cold front across NE/northern
KS, and farther north along the warm front into southern MN.
Eventual upscale growth into one or more linear clusters should
favor an increase in the threat for damaging gust and a couple
tornadoes over parts of IA, IL and southern WI this evening.

...Eastern NM/CO and the TX/OK Panhandles...
Initial high-based shower and thunderstorm development is underway
coincident with very strong heating and the arrival of a weak
upper-level shortwave trough atop the well-mixed air mass west of
the dryline. With mixing depths of 4-5 km below modest buoyancy,
strong to severe gusts are possible with these showers and
thunderstorms across the southern High Plains. Wind probabilities
were shifted slightly west. See MCDs #723 and #724 for short term
information.

..Lyons.. 05/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026/

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest including Iowa...
A cyclonically influenced moderately strong belt of westerlies will
exist over the northern Plains to Upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes. The primary surface low will remain in northern Ontario, with
a trailing cold front extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains. A secondary surface low will exist across
southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma around peak afternoon
heating, with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low
across much of the southern High Plains.

Continued expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along
the cold front/surface trough from eastern Nebraska into Iowa to be
delayed until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as
large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave
trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually
overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist
advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability (2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) across this region by early evening. While low-level winds
are forecast to remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow
will support sufficient (35-50 kt) deep-layer shear for updraft
organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale
growth this evening across Iowa with an increasing potential for
scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75
mph on a localized basis given the expectation for an organized
cluster and ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur
this evening as low-level shear gradually increases with a
strengthening low-level jet.

...Southern High Plains...
While clouds linger at midday, particularly with southward extent
across west/southwest Texas, robust daytime heating will yield a
very well-mixed/deep boundary layer near/south of the secondary
surface low over southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Mid-level
temperatures will remain cool enough to support at least weak
instability, even with modest low-level moisture/surface dewpoints.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving from the southern Rockies
into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late
in the day. This should support the development of high-based
thunderstorms, with occasional strong to severe wind gusts expected.
Latest short-term guidance suggests a more probable zone of thunderstorm-related gust potential may focus across the Texas South
Plains and Low Rolling Plains. Isolated gusts of 70+ mph may occur
given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around
500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest Texas may also contain
some hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160100
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large
hail remain likely this evening centered over Iowa. Isolated to
scattered severe gusts also remain possible over a broader area from
parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...IA and southern WI into northeast KS/northern MO...
Several clusters of severe storms are currently ongoing across
western into northern IA, with other cells into southeast MN. All
this is occurring near and ahead of a cold front associated with the
glancing upper wave to the north. Moderate instability has developed
as lower 60s F dewpoints spread into the area, and effective
deep-layer shear near 50 kt will continue to support organization
into an MCS as outflows aggregate. Until then, large damaging hail
will also be possible. More isolated activity also extends into far
southeast NE, with other failed attempts at initiation toward far
northern KS. The increasing southwest low-level jet this evening may
support additional development later this evening as the 00Z TOP
sounding remains moist and unstable.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0729 and #0730.

...Western TX...western OK...southwest KS...
Scattered high-based storms continue to produce locally severe gusts
from parts of western TX into western OK. While capping will
increase this evening, a few more hours of damaging wind threat
appear likely with the activity moving into northwest TX. Additional
isolated activity may also develop anywhere from western OK into
southwest KS as moisture wraps around the surface low and lapse
rates remain steep.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160537
SWODY1
SPC AC 160535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will
also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will develop over the western states today, with
increasing southwest winds aloft late in the day and overnight
across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Preceding the western
trough, a progressive shortwave will move from the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast, allowing temporary height rises across the upper
Midwest/MS Valley. Behind this wave, high pressure will bring stable
conditions into the northern Plains.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the central High
Plains, with a trough extending from eastern WY into western TX.
Meanwhile, a stalled front will be situated across northeast CO into
northern KS and toward IA/northern IL, with easterly winds across NE
and IA. A moist air mass will reside south of this boundary, with
60s F dewpoints prevalent. Backed winds will help bring this
moisture westward toward northeast CO and western NE by late
afternoon as 850 mb winds increase toward evening. Shear profiles
will thus become increasingly favorable from late afternoon through
evening for supercells, with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps
a couple tornadoes from CO into western NE/KS.

East of there, another concentration of strong to severe storms is
expected from eastern NE into IA, northern MO and northeast KS near
the boundary.

Elsewhere, a broad fetch of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb winds will
maintain a moist air mass across the lower to middle MS Valley and
across the OH Valley. Here, pockets of stronger instability will
support scattered strong storms during the afternoon.

...Central Plains...
Storms are likely to form near the Front Range after 21Z, with
activity developing eastward into NE and KS. A few supercells appear
likely with time, producing damaging hail and severe wind gusts.
Westerly winds aloft atop the deep low-level easterlies will
elongate hodographs with over 50 kt effective shear, while SRH
values favor supercells and severe bows through evening.

Farther east, strong instability will develop near the east-west
boundary, with scattered severe storms developing around 21Z. Some
of these storms may produce hail over 2.00" diameter as lapse rates
aloft will remain steep, and with ample moisture.

Additional isolated activity is possible along the dryline from
southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Here,
shear will be weak but a narrow zone of uncapped air mass with a
backing dryline may support isolated storms with locally severe hail
or wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161249
SWODY1
SPC AC 161248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should
occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains
into Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western
CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level
flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate
mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move
eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day,
while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm
sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains
this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern
CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western
CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater
low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a
convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great
Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary
across the southern/central High Plains.

...Central High Plains to Iowa...
High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher
terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a
more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level
moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the
north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective
coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads
eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and
evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer
shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a
threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance
continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and
spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern
NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe
winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains
apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient
downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest
expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the
potential of a slightly larger cluster.

A separate area of robust convective development should also occur
farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity
along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may
persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all
suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be
in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly
mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient
deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large
to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the
first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm
mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some
increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more
organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through
the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear
possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This
potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed
low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely
being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a
west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly
limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and
marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with
this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of
this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon.
One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm
development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for
scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado
or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced
across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has
become apparent in short-term guidance.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161632
SWODY1
SPC AC 161630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should
occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains
into Iowa.

...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm
front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low
over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill
while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO
today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across
the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the
Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and
north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will
favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early
evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts
resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some
tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost
supercells that persist through the early evening when a
strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs
considerably.

Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster,
with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and
spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern
NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the
organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of
the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced
Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more
of southeast NE.

A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east
this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where
the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance
places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is
some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO.
Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this
afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and
persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very
large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a
messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt
updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused
along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may
locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an
attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering
occurs.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale
features will dominate the severe potential across the region today.
One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO.
This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in
mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating
and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could
result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from
north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent
attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this
boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this
afternoon.

The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level
southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with
effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for
updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely
support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early
mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a
more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated
hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards
more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level
flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a
boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk.


...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 05/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 162001
SWODY1
SPC AC 161959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain
likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains
into Iowa.

...20z Update OH valley/Midwest...
Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample
heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F
surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely
across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening.
Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix
of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some
hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger
linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established.
See MCD#735 for short term information.

...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley...
Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this
afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to
the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this
afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough
and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong
destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support
supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid
MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any
sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into
northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow
boundary intersects with the stalled front.

Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime
across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this
afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and
shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail,
damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and
southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more
clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along
and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See
MCD#736 for more information.

...Southern Plains...
A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along
the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the
eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger
deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level
mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).
Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for
damaging gusts and hail remains possible.

..Lyons.. 05/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/

...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm
front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low
over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill
while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO
today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across
the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the
Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and
north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will
favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early
evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts
resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some
tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost
supercells that persist through the early evening when a
strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs
considerably.

Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster,
with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and
spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern
NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the
organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of
the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced
Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more
of southeast NE.

A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east
this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where
the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance
places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is
some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO.
Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this
afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and
persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very
large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a
messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt
updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused
along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may
locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an
attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering
occurs.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale
features will dominate the severe potential across the region today.
One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO.
This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in
mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating
and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could
result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from
north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent
attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this
boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this
afternoon.

The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level
southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with
effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for
updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely
support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early
mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a
more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated
hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards
more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level
flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a
boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk.


...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170103
SWODY1
SPC AC 170100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a couple tornadoes remain
possible tonight, especially across southern Nebraska and northern
Kansas.

...01z Update - Central Plains/Missouri Valley...
Primary scenario this evening will be an upscale-growing/organizing
cluster of storms across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. A
bit more spatial room has been given (southward adjusted) across
northern Kansas (mostly north of I-70) for what may still be a
post-01z increasing damaging wind potential, including
significant-caliber wind gusts across northern Kansas and far
southern Nebraska, aside from a lingering broad regional potential
for some large hail as well. Measured 85 mph gusts have recently
been reported near Colby, Kansas.

..Guyer.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170612
SWODY1
SPC AC 170610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the
central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail
and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear
clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by
evening.

...Colorado/Central Plains to Upper Midwest...
An active severe-weather day is expected regionally. A consequential late-evening/overnight MCS and related outflow across
Nebraska/northern Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Missouri will
likely be a lingering factor for later today. For one, this includes
some southeastward regional adjustment in severe probabilities
across areas such as eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast
Kansas/far northwest Missouri.

One or more embedded disturbances will emerge this afternoon from
the central Rockies amid increasingly prevalent cyclonic flow aloft
in advance of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. Lee
cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a
northward advection of moisture, and post-MCS-related air mass
recovery across eastern portions of Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa
through late afternoon in association with a warm front, and ahead
of a southeast-progressing cold front across the north-central High
Plains.

Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast
Colorado into southwest Nebraska within a low-level upslope flow
regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. These storms
will be capable of large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong
vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs.

By late afternoon/early evening, quickly intensifying deep
convection is expected farther east within the warm sector and near
and east/northeast of a surface triple point across parts of eastern
Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa, initially
including intense supercells capable of very large hail and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Backed low-level winds
within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to
increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs.
While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly
due to capping as well as the advancing cold front resulting in
upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of
producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail, with a
somewhat longer duration for more discrete storms with southward
extent across eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas.

With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop
near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level
jet significantly increases during the evening. An attendant risk of
severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will
diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases.

...Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas...
While there are some uncertainties related to capping, particularly
with southward extent, at least isolated high-based convection is
expected regionally late in the afternoon, particularly for the
Kansas and western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle portion of the
dryline. Given very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, moderate
instability, and supercell-supportive wind profiles, large to very
large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Northern Illinois and Wisconsin to Lower Michigan...
While the influences of the early morning MCS across the Corn Belt
are not certain, potentially including lingering cloud cover, there
is some potential for at least isolated strong/severe storm
development near the northward-shifting warm front. This could
potentially include a few supercells and related hazards through the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast/Florida Peninsula...
On the western periphery of the western Atlantic anticyclone,
diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the
southern Appalachians across Georgia and interior/western Florida
Peninsula. Thermodynamic environment should be supportive of
strong/locally severe storms capable of wind damage/downbursts, and
possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171252
SWODY1
SPC AC 171250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible
initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads
to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further
amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave
trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through
the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level
flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the
Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to
advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low
over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop
northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A
dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late
afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A
warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into
southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is
forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the
northern/central Plains through the period.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO
this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity
will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to
very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z,
additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the
cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly
destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far
north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing
convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA.

Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any
convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon,
as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat
will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain
surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late
afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds
should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing
clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind
threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN
where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS
tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the
cluster.

Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the
dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale
ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated
high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK.
Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for
large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a
40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong
tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can
persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into
a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front
overtakes the dryline.

...Great Lakes/Lower Michigan...
Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated
with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA
this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward
today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late
afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level
wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the
surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across
these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is
possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with
sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower
MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring.

...Southeast...
On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus
from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL
Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a
favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse
rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable
of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent
of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent
over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated
thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across
parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a
persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then
isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
strong MUCAPE forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a
weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this
morning over OH may support isolated convective development this
afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall
environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger
cores that may develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171631
SWODY1
SPC AC 171629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible
initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads
to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

...Synopsis...
12Z soundings across the central and southern Plains reveal steep
mid-level lapse rates (8.8 deg C per km at OUN, SGF, and TOP) atop
returning low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios of 15.4 and
13.1 g/kg at OUN and FWD, respectively). An MCV, from overnight
storms across the Plains, is progressing into northern IL/southern
MN. 12Z DVN sounding sampled a corridor of 50 kt at the base of this
MCV.

Morning surface analysis reveals an intricate surface pattern across
the High Plains/Plains, with multiple lows within the lee troughing
that extends from eastern MT through the central High Plains, a pair
of warm fronts, and a residual outflow boundary across NE. The
deepest surface low is over the far southern CO/KS border vicinity,
with a warm front extending east-northeastward, roughly along the 70
deg F isotherm. A dryline also extends southward from this low into
far west TX. Another low is in place farther north over western NE.
Another warm front, this one along a sharp gradient in low-level
moisture, extends northeastward from this low into far southeast SD
before arcing more eastward across far southern MN and continuing
across from southern WI into central Lower MI. The aforementioned
outflow also extends eastward from this low across central NE.

All of these boundaries will likely influence the severe potential
today, combining with an emerging upper trough and moderate to
strong instability, to support an expansive and complex scenario
today.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Expectation is for the northern warm front mentioned in the synopsis
to continue northward throughout the day while as cold front sweeps southeastward across SD and NE. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated as the cold front interacts with the returning low-level
moisture. Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000
J/kg) will support robust thunderstorms from southeast SD through
south-central NE, potentially as far south as central KS. This
activity along the front will become linear quickly with damaging
gusts as the primary risk. Some cell-in-line structures could
support large to very large hail, particularity early in the
convective cycle.

Within this larger area of severe wind and hail potential, two areas
appear to have a greater tornado threat. One is from
northeast/east-central NE into far southeast SD. Here, the influence
of a residual outflow boundary could support more discrete
development ahead of the front. Any discrete development in the warm
sector would likely be supercellular and capable of all hazards,
including very large hail (over 2.5") and a strong tornado. The
other area is where the convective line interacts with the warm
front amid a strengthening low-level jet, likely far northern IA/far
southern MN. Here, increased low-level shear coupled with
augmentation from interaction with the front could result in
significant severe gusts as well as lined-embedded QLCS tornadoes.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development still appears likely across northeastern CO
this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity
will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to
very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. Just how far
east/northeast (into central NE) thunderstorms remains strong is a
question of timing. Earlier storms could interact with the front as
it moves through NE, potential leading to persistence or
reintensification. However, later timing would take these storms
into central NE behind the cold front. Steep mid-level lapse rates
in place could still support these storms for a few hours, but the
overall intensity will likely gradually decrease.

...Southern WI into Lower MI...
An MCV is current progressing into northern IL/southern MN. Modest
buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will support isolated
elevated thunderstorms capable of small hail and locally strong wind
gusts through early afternoon. This MCV is expected to continue
northeastward into Lower MI, potentially interacting with a warm
front moving north across the region this afternoon. 12Z DVN
sounding sampled enhanced mid-level flow with this MCV, which could
result in enough shear to support organized convection along and
near the warm front later this afternoon/evening. Strong multicells
and an isolated supercell or two could occur, with an attendant risk
for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado.

...South-Central KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK...
Some guidance continues to show at least isolated high-based
convection developing by late afternoon across parts of
north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK.
Any thunderstorms which can be sustained would likely be
supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including large to
very large hail and tornadoes. Increasing low-level shear after 00Z
supports a conditional risk for a strong tornado.

-- No changes to these areas from the earlier 13Z Outlook --

...Southeast...
On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus
from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL
Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a
favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse
rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable
of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent
of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent
over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated
thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across
parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in
persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then
isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
strong MUCAPE forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a
weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this
morning over OH may support isolated convective development this
afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall
environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger
cores that may develop.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172003
SWODY1
SPC AC 172002

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible
initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads
to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

...20z Update portions of the northern MO Valley and Midwest...
Earlier elevated convection across southern SD has gradually
strengthened into a broader convective complex ahead of the cold
front this afternoon. Current expectations are for this cluster, and
additional supercells to evolve near the synoptic warm front near
the SD/NE/IA and MN borders this afternoon/evening. Strongly backed
low-level flow will support a tornado risk with a mixed convective
mode before upscale growth into an MCS/bowing cluster this evening.
Thereafter, a significant damaging wind threat with a few embedded
tornadoes may evolve along the warm frontal corridor across northern
IA and southern MN tonight. Damaging wind probabilities have been
increased ahead of this cluster.

Farther south, a CIG2 tornado area was considered across eastern NE
and west-central IA given the presence of STP 4-7 possibly
overlapping with discrete supercells. However, numerous storms are
expected ahead of the cold front with expected interactions casting
uncertainty on the longevity of the more discrete storms.
Regardless, a volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment (RAP
ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) could support the threat for a higher-end
tornado this evening across southeastern NE and southwestern IA
should supercells remain more discrete.

...Southern OK and North TX...
Modest ascent from a subtropical jet over portions of TX could
support isolated thunderstorm development in the Red River Vicinity
to central TX this evening. A broadly unstable environment with 70s
F surface dewpoints of sufficient bulk shear for supercells could
support some hail or damaging wind risk with any convection able to
develop. Confidence in this scenario remains very low.

...Central High Plains...
Air mass destabilization is ongoing in the post-frontal upslope flow
regime across the central High Plains. Supercells remain likely with
large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Eventually one or
more clusters may evolve and spread eastward with an increased risk
for damaging gusts tonight. Higher probabilities were shifted
southward slightly to better align with the observed cold frontal
position.

Else where the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous
discussion.

..Lyons.. 05/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
12Z soundings across the central and southern Plains reveal steep
mid-level lapse rates (8.8 deg C per km at OUN, SGF, and TOP) atop
returning low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios of 15.4 and
13.1 g/kg at OUN and FWD, respectively). An MCV, from overnight
storms across the Plains, is progressing into northern IL/southern
MN. 12Z DVN sounding sampled a corridor of 50 kt at the base of this
MCV.

Morning surface analysis reveals an intricate surface pattern across
the High Plains/Plains, with multiple lows within the lee troughing
that extends from eastern MT through the central High Plains, a pair
of warm fronts, and a residual outflow boundary across NE. The
deepest surface low is over the far southern CO/KS border vicinity,
with a warm front extending east-northeastward, roughly along the 70
deg F isotherm. A dryline also extends southward from this low into
far west TX. Another low is in place farther north over western NE.
Another warm front, this one along a sharp gradient in low-level
moisture, extends northeastward from this low into far southeast SD
before arcing more eastward across far southern MN and continuing
across from southern WI into central Lower MI. The aforementioned
outflow also extends eastward from this low across central NE.

All of these boundaries will likely influence the severe potential
today, combining with an emerging upper trough and moderate to
strong instability, to support an expansive and complex scenario
today.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Expectation is for the northern warm front mentioned in the synopsis
to continue northward throughout the day while as cold front sweeps southeastward across SD and NE. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated as the cold front interacts with the returning low-level
moisture. Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000
J/kg) will support robust thunderstorms from southeast SD through
south-central NE, potentially as far south as central KS. This
activity along the front will become linear quickly with damaging
gusts as the primary risk. Some cell-in-line structures could
support large to very large hail, particularity early in the
convective cycle.

Within this larger area of severe wind and hail potential, two areas
appear to have a greater tornado threat. One is from
northeast/east-central NE into far southeast SD. Here, the influence
of a residual outflow boundary could support more discrete
development ahead of the front. Any discrete development in the warm
sector would likely be supercellular and capable of all hazards,
including very large hail (over 2.5") and a strong tornado. The
other area is where the convective line interacts with the warm
front amid a strengthening low-level jet, likely far northern IA/far
southern MN. Here, increased low-level shear coupled with
augmentation from interaction with the front could result in
significant severe gusts as well as lined-embedded QLCS tornadoes.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development still appears likely across northeastern CO
this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity
will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to
very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. Just how far
east/northeast (into central NE) thunderstorms remains strong is a
question of timing. Earlier storms could interact with the front as
it moves through NE, potential leading to persistence or
reintensification. However, later timing would take these storms
into central NE behind the cold front. Steep mid-level lapse rates
in place could still support these storms for a few hours, but the
overall intensity will likely gradually decrease.

...Southern WI into Lower MI...
An MCV is current progressing into northern IL/southern MN. Modest
buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will support isolated
elevated thunderstorms capable of small hail and locally strong wind
gusts through early afternoon. This MCV is expected to continue
northeastward into Lower MI, potentially interacting with a warm
front moving north across the region this afternoon. 12Z DVN
sounding sampled enhanced mid-level flow with this MCV, which could
result in enough shear to support organized convection along and
near the warm front later this afternoon/evening. Strong multicells
and an isolated supercell or two could occur, with an attendant risk
for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado.

...South-Central KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK...
Some guidance continues to show at least isolated high-based
convection developing by late afternoon across parts of
north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK.
Any thunderstorms which can be sustained would likely be
supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including large to
very large hail and tornadoes. Increasing low-level shear after 00Z
supports a conditional risk for a strong tornado.

-- No changes to these areas from the earlier 13Z Outlook --

...Southeast...
On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus
from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL
Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a
favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse
rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable
of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent
of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent
over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated
thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across
parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in
persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then
isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
strong MUCAPE forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a
weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this
morning over OH may support isolated convective development this
afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall
environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger
cores that may develop.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180109
SWODY1
SPC AC 180107

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas
into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern
Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for
damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks
regionally.

...Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to
grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening.
However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue
with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near
the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther
south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern
peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas.
Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with
dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest
2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as
supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and Springfield, Missouri.

..Guyer.. 05/18/2026

$$

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