ACUS11 KWNS 212202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212201=20
OHZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Areas affected...Central/northern OH and Lake Erie

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212201Z - 220000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite scant low-level moisture, low-topped convection
with occasional lightning as developed from eastern MI into parts of
OH, aided by cold midlevel temperatures (near/below -25 C at 500
mb). These showers and embedded storms will spread eastward into
early evening, in conjunction with a low-amplitude midlevel
shortwave trough and surface trough/cold front. Steep low-level
lapse rates and increasing flow in the lowest 1-2 km will support
gusty winds in association with this convection. One gust to 62 mph
was measured near Lima, OH (KAOH) at 2045 UTC, with more recent
gusts of 45-50 mph noted at other sites across western OH. Gusts of
45-60 mph will remain possible into early evening as this convection
spreads across central/northern OH and Lake Erie, before increasing
low-level stability results in a diminishing threat.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RKSNqWD2G2SPeBK5oJbiBfwpEpMrHC4F2WJNReUJv-Nzk-ZwjOhcZq8nNo0c2Y0o_uBAFuDt= MVTXMP-0vCyM_QNqnw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41618336 42018209 42288130 42298080 42138058 41798058
41218063 40658104 40218163 39858251 39748325 39808412
40538385 41618336=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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