ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the southern and central
Plains this evening, as a shortwave trough continues to move across
the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the trough
in parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening. Additional storms will be
possible tonight across the Florida Peninsula, and over parts of the Intermountain West, ahead of a shortwave trough near the West Coast.
No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental
U.S.

..Broyles.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 030556
SWODY1
SPC AC 030554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West/Central and Northern Rockies...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will be in place today across much of
the western U.S., as a trough moves into the Intermountain West. At
the surface, a low will deepen across western Utah. Surface
dewpoints in many areas to the east and north of the low will be in
the mid 30s and mid 40s F. As surface temperatures warm today,
pockets of weak instability will develop from eastern Utah and
western Colorado northward into western Wyoming and eastern Idaho.
As large-scale ascent increases due to the approaching trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this
instability corridor. RAP forecast soundings near the areas of
strongest instability have substantial speed shear in the low to
mid-levels with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels.
This could be conducive for isolated severe wind gusts with
multicells that develop during the late afternoon and evening. In
addition, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to be -12C to -15C which
could support a marginal hail threat. The severe threat could
continue into the overnight period as a band of strong large-scale
ascent moves from west to east across the region.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.

...Intermountain West into the Central/Northern Rockies...
A well-defined, slightly positively tilted shortwave trough is
currently progressing through northern/central CA. Eastward
progression is expected to continue throughout the day, with the
shortwave forecast reach western UT by early Saturday morning with a
more neutral tilt. Strong mid-level flow will extend throughout the
base of this shortwave, spreading from central/southern CA into the
central Intermountain West as the wave moves eastward. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will precede this wave as well,
contributing to isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout much
of the Great Basin into the western Slopes. Strong daytime heating
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support buoyancy
throughout much of this region, although the relatively scant
low-level moisture will keep the overall buoyancy modest. Even with
the modest buoyancy, high-based storms combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could still result in a few strong surface gusts.
Greatest chance for a few gust will be later this afternoon/early
evening from northern into east-central UT. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of hail are possible this evening and tonight,
particularly across northern/eastern UT and vicinity.

...Elsewhere...
A broad and weak upper low will remain centered over the central
Gulf Coast, with lift associated with this system contributing to
thunderstorms within the moist airmass in place along the Gulf Coast
and FL. Southern extent of a cold front moving across Ontario will
glance Upper MI and northern Lower MI, contributing to isolated
storms. A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible across Mid
MS Valley amid strong heating, moderate low-level moisture, and
modest low-level convergence. In each of these areas, limited shear
should keep the severe potential low.

An extensive low-level jet is anticipated from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley tonight. A few elevated
thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and northwestern MN
tonight, but warm mid-level temperatures should mitigate the overall
severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031632
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

...Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

..Guyer/Gleason.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the MRGL risk was extended slightly
westward into far northeastern NV, driven by 5-percent wind
probabilities. Despite limited moisture/buoyancy, strengthening
large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
and steepening deep-layer lapse rates amid strong low/mid-level flow
could support a couple strong convectively enhanced wind gusts. See
the previous discussion below for more details.

..Weinman.. 10/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025/

...Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040026
SWODY1
SPC AC 040024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across much of the Rockies
and Great Basin. Isolated storms are also expected across portions
of the Gulf Coast and upper Great Lakes region.

...01z Update...

High level diffluent flow has overspread much of the Great Basin
into the central Rockies early this evening, just ahead of a
pronounced upper Low located over western NV/southern CA. Despite
meager instability, isolated frontal convection should be common
ahead of the upper trough tonight. While some of this activity could
generate gusts at times, current expectations are that the severe
risk is too low to warrant probabilities.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible tonight along the
central/western Gulf Coast and near the international border with
Canada from the upper Red River Valley into the U.P. of MI. This
activity is also expected to remain below severe levels.

..Darrow.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040528
SWODY1
SPC AC 040527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...

Upper low over southern NV will begin to eject northeast over the
next few hours, advancing into UT by 12z then open up as a
progressive short-wave trough over WY/CO by early evening. This
feature will move into the eastern Dakotas overnight as 500mb speed
max intensifies and translates toward the upper Red River Valley by
05/12z. At the surface, synoptic front is expected to move very
little, extending from southeast MB-eastern ND-southeast WY.

While strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across the high
Plains into southeast SD, instability should remain weak despite
steep 0-3km lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms should develop ahead
of the short wave across southeast WY/NE Panhandle into western SD,
but forecast soundings suggest hail will struggle to be more than
marginally severe. Some gust potential exists where lapse rates are
steep. More concentrated robust updrafts are expected along the cool
side of the boundary from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN
during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the
most buoyant parcels will be rooted near 850mb where MUCAPE could
exceed 1500 J/kg. This post-frontal convection will be aided by a
strengthening LLJ which should encourage some organization,
especially given the approaching short wave. This activity will be
focused mostly after sunset and hail could exceed 1 inch in the
strongest elevated updrafts.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WY...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows an upper low moving into western UT
within broadly cyclonic upper flow from the western CONUS into
northern/central Plains. This upper low is forecast to devolve into
an open wave while continuing northeastward within the broad
troughing, reaching the northern Plains by early tomorrow morning.
Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout the
eastern periphery of this wave, spreading eastward from the central
Rockies and across the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows lower pressure across the Plains ahead
of the upper low. A cold front was also analyzed from southeast
Manitoba southwestward across the central Dakotas and southern WY to
another low in southwest WY. Pressure gradient between these lower
pressures over the Plains and the high over the Mid-Atlantic will
support gusty southerly winds across the Plains and Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Even with this moderate southerly flow, low-level moisture
along and ahead of the cold front will remain modest, offset by
strong boundary-layer heating and resultant mixing. This should keep
much of the northern and central Plains free of thunderstorms
throughout the day.

Some daytime thunderstorms are likely across the central Rockies,
closer to the upper low and stronger large-scale ascent. These
storms are expected to progress northeastward towards a warmer and
more mixed airmass over southeast WY/northeast CO/NE Panhandle
during the late afternoon/early evening. A few stronger gusts are
possible as these ongoing storms interact with the deeply mixed
boundary layer over the area. The cold front will be near this
region as well, with some gust enhancement possible due to frontal
circulations as well.

Later into the evening, a strengthening low-level jet and resulting
warm-air advection will aid in thunderstorm development north of the
front, most likely from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN.
Cooling mid-level temperatures will help support moderate buoyancy
with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in
place as well, with the resulting environmental conditions
supportive of occasional updrafts capable of producing hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms that develop from the central Rockies/High Plains into
the northern Plains late this afternoon into tonight.

...Central Rockies/High Plains into the Northern Plains...
An upper trough/low with attendant strong south-southwesterly
mid-level jet will advance eastward today from the Great Basin
across the central Rockies/High Plains, eventually reaching the
northern Plains late tonight. At the surface, a cold front extends
from the Dakotas southwestward to eastern WY/north-central CO. This
front should serve as a focus for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Recent observations
and 12Z observed soundings along/ahead of the front show limited
low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s
to 50s. Even with filtered diurnal heating through this afternoon,
instability is forecast to remain rather weak as low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen with deep boundary layer mixing. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to
overspread the central High Plains by mid to late afternoon, where
up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible.

Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from the central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains
this afternoon and evening in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This may support an organized cluster or two, capable
of producing mainly isolated strong to severe gusts. The greatest
severe wind potential still appears focused across parts of
southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, where the Slight
Risk has been maintained with no changes. Other thunderstorms may
eventually form this evening/overnight across parts of the northern
Plains and northwest MN as low-level warm advection gradually
strengthens in tandem with an increasing southerly low-level jet.
This activity should tend to remain elevated along/north of the cold
front. But, given sufficient MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear
forecast, the more robust cores may be capable of producing isolated
severe hail/wind.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms that develop from the central Rockies/High Plains into
the northern Plains late this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The MRGL risk in MN was expanded slightly
southward based on the latest positioning of the surface front (per
19Z surface analysis). Marginally severe hail accompanying elevated
overnight thunderstorms will be the primary concern here.

Elsewhere, a northeastward extension of the SLGT risk into southern
SD was considered, where middle/upper 50s dewpoints will contribute
to slightly larger buoyancy along the surface boundary. While a
localized uptick in thunderstorm intensity is possible here tonight
(as depicted by some high-resolution guidance), confidence in this
scenario is too low for the upgrade -- especially considering the
late timing/nocturnally cooling boundary layer.

See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Weinman.. 10/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025/

...Central Rockies/High Plains into the Northern Plains...
An upper trough/low with attendant strong south-southwesterly
mid-level jet will advance eastward today from the Great Basin
across the central Rockies/High Plains, eventually reaching the
northern Plains late tonight. At the surface, a cold front extends
from the Dakotas southwestward to eastern WY/north-central CO. This
front should serve as a focus for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Recent observations
and 12Z observed soundings along/ahead of the front show limited
low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s
to 50s. Even with filtered diurnal heating through this afternoon,
instability is forecast to remain rather weak as low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen with deep boundary layer mixing. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is expected to
overspread the central High Plains by mid to late afternoon, where
up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible.

Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from the central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains
this afternoon and evening in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. This may support an organized cluster or two, capable
of producing mainly isolated strong to severe gusts. The greatest
severe wind potential still appears focused across parts of
southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle, where the Slight
Risk has been maintained with no changes. Other thunderstorms may
eventually form this evening/overnight across parts of the northern
Plains and northwest MN as low-level warm advection gradually
strengthens in tandem with an increasing southerly low-level jet.
This activity should tend to remain elevated along/north of the cold
front. But, given sufficient MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear
forecast, the more robust cores may be capable of producing isolated
severe hail/wind.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 050032
SWODY1
SPC AC 050030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail remain possible across the central
and northern Plains tonight.

...01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across the High
Plains from western SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. In response, a
broken band of convection has matured along this corridor. Over the
next several hours, 500mb speed max should intensify and translate
across the central High Plains into the upper Red River region by
the end of the period. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a
marked increase in LLJ as this speed max/midlevel height falls shift downstream. VAD winds support this with 45kt 1km flow currently
noted across central NE into eastern SD. With time low-level warm
advection should encourage elevated convection along the cool side
of the boundary across the northern Plains. This activity could
produce hail as large as 1-1.5 inches in the strongest updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 050536
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...

Notable short-wave trough, currently located over eastern WY/CO,
will eject into the upper Red River Valley by the start of the day1
period, then advance into northwest ON by early evening. This
evolution will result in weak height rises across much of the
Rockies into the central High Plains, though seasonally strong
southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across KS at peak heating. In
the wake of the ejecting short wave, surface pressures will rise
across the northern/central High Plains which will force a sharp
cold front into southeast NE-central/southwestern KS by 06/00z.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating across
the southern High Plains into southwest KS, immediately ahead of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit steep low-level lapse rates

9 C/km in the 0-3km layer) and convective temperatures should be

breached by 22-23z. Isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the
boundary, and frontal lift may also contribute to some elevated
convection by late evening/overnight hours. While instability is not
expected to be that significant, strong deep-layer shear and an
increasing LLJ during the evening favor some organizational
potential along the frontal zone. Hail/wind are the primary
concerns.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is
embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the
western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the
Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border
vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across
eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and
northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making
steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding
this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the
upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with
these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will
remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still,
thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front
from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited
buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by
the progressive front.

This convective evolution should temper the overall severe
potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow
near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over
western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest
buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts
capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 051952
SWODY1
SPC AC 051950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor southward expansion of
the MRGL risk area into the OK/TX Panhandles. Here, the latest
surface observations indicate middle 50s dewpoints ahead of the
front, which should support sufficient surface-based buoyancy for an isolated/brief strong-severe storm risk -- given 30-40 kt of
effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ. Marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary concerns with
any sustained storms this evening. Elsewhere, the forecast remains
on track. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over
portions of the central and southern Plains this evening.

...Midwest into the central and southern Plains...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad and elongated upper trough
over much of the central CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave
trough over the northern Plains will advance northeastward while a
secondary vort max continues eastward over the central Rockies.
Ascent from these features and a southwesterly mid-level jet will
overspread a northeast to southwest oriented surface cold front from
MN to eastern CO. Modest surface moisture and prior diurnal heating
along the front have allowed weak surface-based destabilization,
supporting scattered storm development early this evening.

As convection continues developing, an isolated severe storm risk is
expected given 35-45 kt of effective shear and a nocturnally
strengthening LLJ along the front. A few initial supercell
structures are likely given the strong flow aloft. With time,
anafrontal forcing and increasing storm coverage should transition
ongoing storms toward a more linear mode. This will favor some
initial severe hail and isolated severe gusts as the primary
concerns before storms weaken overnight.

Farther north across the Midwest, an occasional strong/severe storm
will remain possible this evening. Despite stronger synoptic ascent
closer to the shortwave trough, lingering cloud cover and limited
moisture have stymied available buoyancy. This should limit storm
intensity, though isolated strong gusts remain possible tonight as
linear convection should gradually mature along the front.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, a broad upper trough will continue eastward
across southern Canada and the northern US while a weak
positive-tilt perturbation will move eastward over the Rockies and
northern Plains within a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the
surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will move
slowly east/southeastward, supporting scattered thunderstorms from
the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. While a few stronger storms
are possible, minimal overlap of stronger buoyancy and vertical
shear will largely preclude organized severe potential today and
tonight.

...Southern High Plains...
As the cold front continues south across the central and southern
Plains, low-level easterly flow will increase over portions of
eastern NM and west TX/OK. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating of
the modestly moist air mass should result in weak destabilization
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) through the afternoon. This could support
scattered thunderstorms (a couple of which may briefly be stronger)
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. With 30 kt of
deep-layer shear overspreading the area, multi-cell clusters capable
of occasional strong outflow gusts are the primary risk. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates, modest forcing for ascent and limited
buoyancy suggest low storm coverage and limited potential for a more
widespread and organized severe risk.

...Midwest to the central Plains...
Along the cold front/surface trough, weak forcing ahead of an
embedded shortwave perturbation within broad southwesterly flow
aloft should support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon from
the central Plains to the Midwest. Surface heating along with modest
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will support modest buoyancy of 500 to
1000 J/kg, surface based ahead of the front and elevated
along/behind it. A few stronger storms with damaging gust potential
are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
oriented along the boundary. These storms may continue after dark
into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust potential. However, the
lack of more robust destabilization should limit storm
organization/intensity.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 061239
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the
vicinity of a cold front that extends from the TX Panhandle
northeastward through eastern Upper MI. This cold front is forecast
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs move within the upper troughing that extends from
the Canadian Prairies southwestward off the central/southern CA
coast. Moderate southwesterlies will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the upper troughing, although much of this stronger
flow will remain displaced north of the cold front.

Given the presence of moderate pre-frontal low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints generally in the low 60s), showers and occasional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it continues eastward/southeastward today. However, overall buoyancy will be
tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. Two areas along the frontal
zone, northern IL into Lower MI and eastern NM/TX Panhandle, do
appear to have a higher potential for a few stronger storms.

...Northern IL into Lower MI...
Surface dewpoints in the low 60s, temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) are expected
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Lift along
the front, along with additional ascent provided by a low-amplitude
embedded shortwave trough, will interact with this buoyancy to
support thunderstorm development along the cold front as it
progresses eastward across the region. Moderate shear will also be
in place, with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector a bit
more orthogonal to the front than areas farther south. As such,
there is greater potential for thunderstorms to remain within the
warm sector longer. As such, a few stronger storms with damaging
gust potential are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of
effective shear oriented along the boundary. These storms may
continue after dark into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust
potential. Even so, minimal buoyancy should limit the overall severe
threat.

...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating and mixing will contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the cold front by the late afternoon. This destabilization will likely lead to thunderstorm development along
the front, but the overall buoyancy will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, high
storm bases and 30 kt of deep-layer shear could result in a few
stronger gusts. Overall potential and coverage is currently expected
to be too low to merit introducing any severe probabilities.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 061557
SWODY1
SPC AC 061555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

..Hart/Barnes.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
No major changes have been made to the outlook. Storm coverage is
expected to increase from late afternoon into the evening from the
southern High Plains into the central Plains, and across parts of
the Midwest/Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a
couple strong storms with gusty winds from northern IL into Lower
MI, but generally weak buoyancy and lapse rates are still expected
to limit the severe threat. Transient storm organization will be
possible across parts of south-central/southeast KS and also across
eastern NM, but generally weak to modest buoyancy will tend to limit
storm intensity. See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 10/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 070113
SWODY1
SPC AC 070112

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated potential for strong thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of east-central New Mexico early this evening. No appreciable
severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is evident over the
northern Plains, extending southwestward into the Intermountain
West. Ahead of this feature within southwesterly mid-level flow,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of
the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, where a strong
storm will be possible. This potential is expected to diminish over
the next hour or two. Thunderstorms will also be possible this
evening from the south-central U.S. northeastward into the Great
Lakes region and Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible in parts of the central Gulf Coast states and across the
southern and central Florida Peninsula. No appreciable severe threat
is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 070536
SWODY1
SPC AC 070535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place today
from the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. Heights
will gradually rise over the southern Rockies today, as a shortwave
ridge moves across the region. At the surface, upslope easterly
winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, with surface
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F over much of southern and central New
Mexico. In west-central New Mexico, along the western edge of this
low-level moisture, a north-to-south axis of instability is forecast
to develop in the late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form
within this corridor of instability, with a relatively small cluster
moving eastern into central New Mexico during the late afternoon and
early evening.

RAP forecast soundings in the late afternoon to the west of
Albuquerque have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 40
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast between 7 and 7.5 C/km
with 500 mb temperatures of -10 to -11C. This should be favorable
for hail with the stronger rotating cells that develop near the
instability axis. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer may also
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. However, the
rising mid-level heights will be a limiting factor, and for that
reason any severe threat is expected to remain marginal.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 071255
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over southern Lower MI,
with a cold front extending back southwestward into northwest TX
before arcing more westward through the TX South Plains into
southeast NM. High pressure will continue to settle southward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day, helping to
push the cold front farther southward/southeastward. By 00Z, this
cold front will likely extend from western NY southwestward into
southwest TX then westward across the TX Trans Pecos and
northwestward into south-central NM.

A seasonally moist airmass precedes this cold front, with ascent
along this frontal zone, as well as pre-frontal warm-air advection,
supporting the currently ongoing showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front from the central Plains into the Mid MS and OH
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front will
likely continue throughout the day, but poor lapse rates will
keeping buoyancy low and tempering storm strength. Aside from NM
(discussed below), best chance for a few stronger storms is over north-central/northeast OH into western PA where deep-layer shear
will be a bit more orthogonal to the front.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
Upslope easterly/southeasterly surface winds are anticipated across
much of central and southern NM along the southern and western
periphery of a stalling cold front. Strong heating of this modestly
moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft will support
airmass destabilization and limited buoyancy. Upslope flow and
orographic effects combined with a very modest shortwave trough
progressing along the northern periphery of a building ridge should
provide enough lift for thunderstorm initiation. Wind profiles
featuring low-level southerlies veering to moderate
west-southwesterlies aloft should be strong enough to result in a
few stronger, more organized storms capable of large hail. Given the
high storm bases, a strong downburst or two is possible as well.
However, rising mid-level heights and modest buoyancy will likely
limit storm duration, keeping the overall severe threat marginal.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 071605
SWODY1
SPC AC 071604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 080056
SWODY1
SPC AC 080055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and perhaps some severe wind gusts remain
possible this evening across parts of central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over eastern
Canada extending southward into the northeastern US. Trailing this
feature, largely zonal mid-level flow is ongoing over the central
US, with a surface cold front moving south across the Plains and
Midwest. To the west, a weak subtropical wave and jet were noted
over part of AZ and NM over the western portions of the stalling
cold front. Weak upslope flow was supporting isolated thunderstorms
over parts of NM and the southern High Plains this evening.

...Central NM...
Weak ascent beneath the western shortwave and subtropical jet has
allowed for isolated convection to develop within weak upslope flow
along a backdoor cold front over central NM. While buoyancy is
limited, (500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) from the 18z ABQ RAOB, it should
remain sufficient to support stronger updrafts for a couple of hours
this evening. 35-45 kt of bulk shear will favor some organization
with a few supercell structures noted. While lapse rates are not
overly steep, shear and buoyancy are favorable for some hail.
Isolated severe gusts are also possible where low-level lapse rates
are steeper. Convective intensity should gradually wane over the
next 1-3 hours as the storms move slowly eastward into a cooler air
mass and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer begins.

..Lyons.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery depicts extensive upper ridging from
the southern Plains into the Canadian Prairies, with a pair of
shortwave troughs flanking this ridging. The eastern shortwave
trough extends from the Hudson Bay southwestward through the OH
Valley while the western shortwave extends from central British
Columbia to off the Pacific Northwest coast. The eastern trough will
remain progressive today, taking it off the Northeast coast by this
evening. The western trough will deepen into a notable upper low
while remaining just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The upper
ridging between these two systems will expand
northward/northeastward and cover much of the CONUS by early
Thursday morning.

Recent surface analysis placed an extensive cold front from central
ME southwestward into central MS before arcing more westward into
southwest TX and then back northwestward through central NM. Eastern
portion of this front will remain progressive today, moving quickly
off the Northeast coast over the next few hours. The central portion
of the front will also make steady southeastward/southward progress
into more of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. Modest buoyancy
ahead of the front will support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Southeast. Meager buoyancy should keep the
severe threat low, although some lingering mid-level flow could
allow for a few transient multicells capable of strong outflow
gusts.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible for the Lower MS Valley
into South TX but limited convergence along the front and warm
mid-level temperatures should keep coverage low. Higher thunderstorm
chances exist farther west into NM/AZ, where another day of
low-level upslope flow is anticipated on the western periphery of
the stalled cold front. Strong heating will destabilize the airmass,
with isolated to scattered thunderstorm expected this afternoon.
Modest vertical shear (20-30kt) may support a few more robust
multicell storms capable of occasional damaging gusts and small hail
given steeper low and-level lapse rates and around 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 080557
SWODY1
SPC AC 080555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast
will steadily move offshore this morning as it intensifies. Enhanced
flow aloft behind and south of the trough will linger over portions
of the southern Appalachians and the Southeast. In the wake of the
departing trough, mid-level ridging is forecast to build rapidly
over the central parts of the CONUS east of another intensifying
upper low over the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will
move offshore over southern New England and the Mid Atlantic early.
The same front will then move into portions of the Southeast and the
Southwest slowing and aiding in thunderstorm development this
afternoon into tonight.

...Mid Atlantic and southern New England...
Early this morning, strong ascent ahead of the deepening upper
trough will likely support a narrow low-topped convective band along
the advancing cold front and surface low across southern New England
the northern Mid Atlantic States. Area model soundings show very
weak buoyancy around 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE. While buoyancy and
lapse rate will be poor, low and mid-level wind fields will be
fairly strong beneath the mid-level jet. Thus while little lightning
is expected owing to the shallow convection, downward momentum
transport of this stronger flow aloft could result in isolated
damaging gusts in reaching the surface before the convective line
moves offshore by late morning. However, the meager buoyancy lends
low confidence in any sustained severe threat.

...Southeast...
To the south, the western fringes of the upper trough may provide
enough lift to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
along the cold front from AL/GA into the Carolinas and southern VA.
Diurnal heating amid upper 60s and low 70s F dewpoints should
support weak destabilization. Some lingering mid-level flow could
allow for a few transient multicells capable of strong outflow
gusts. However, with only modest ascent, low storm coverage is
expected. This along with poor mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy
suggest any severe threat is likely to be brief.

...Southwest...
Along the western fringes of the stalled cold front, low-level
upslope flow is expected across portions of western NM and northeast
AZ. Strong surface heating and the passing influence of the
deepening Pacific low will support scattered thunderstorms today
into tonight. While vertical shear will not be overly strong (20-30
kt), a few more robust multicell storms could support occasional
damaging gusts and small hail given steeper low and-level lapse
rates and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

..Lyons/Squitieri.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 071941
SWODY1
SPC AC 071940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025/

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 081548
SWODY1
SPC AC 081547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough is currently over the Great Lakes region. This
trough will move into New England tonight as a broad upper ridge
becomes established over much of the central/southern CONUS.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest
states, south TX, and much of the southeastern US. There might be a
strong storm or two with gusty winds or hail in west-central NM this
afternoon, but in general the convective activity is expected to
remain below severe limits.

..Hart/Grams.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 081942
SWODY1
SPC AC 081941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough is currently over the Great Lakes region. This
trough will move into New England tonight as a broad upper ridge
becomes established over much of the central/southern CONUS.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest
states, south TX, and much of the southeastern US. There might be a
strong storm or two with gusty winds or hail in west-central NM this
afternoon, but in general the convective activity is expected to
remain below severe limits.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 090034
SWODY1
SPC AC 090032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Dominant upper ridge remains anchored over the southern Plains early
this evening. This flow regime continues to favor a few minor
disturbances, and seasonally high PW values, advancing around the
periphery from northern Mexico into the Four Corners region. One
such feature appears partly responsible for ongoing scattered
convection across eastern AZ into northern NM. Some risk for
lightning continues across this region as 00z soundings from
TUS/FGZ/ABQ all exhibited fairly steep lapse rates with adequate
buoyancy for thunderstorms.

Downstream across the southeastern U.S., progressive upper trough is
advancing off the Middle Atlantic Coast early this evening.
Associated surface front has advanced to coastal NC/SC, extending
into the FL Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be noted along
this boundary early this evening and then shift offshore with the
wind shift.

..Darrow.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 090545
SWODY1
SPC AC 090543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for
robust organized thunderstorms today; although, several areas of
concentrated convection are expected.

Upper ridge is forecast to continue across the southern High Plains
through the day1 period as a strong low holds off the Oregon Coast.
Modest southwesterly flow will encourage higher PW air mass across
the southwestern U.S. into the Four Corners region where modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lighting within deeper convective updrafts.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across south FL in
association with a low-latitude midlevel trough that will drift
slowly north through the period. High-PW air mass and poor lapse
rates appear supportive of potentially heavy rain, rather than
severe storms, within broader easterly low-level flow.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop within northwesterly
high-level diffluent flow ahead of a digging trough. Weak
instability should develop ahead of a surface front, and elevated
convection appears possible during the latter half of the period
from the upper Great Lakes into eastern Kansas.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 091248
SWODY1
SPC AC 091247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Much of the central and eastern CONUS will remain under the
influence of expansive surface ridging centered over eastern
Ontario. This should keep the majority of the region free of deep
convection. A few exceptions exist, including south of a cold front
that currently extends across southern AL and southern GA. This cold
front, coupled with ascent from a weak shortwave trough forecast to
move into the Southeast this afternoon evening, amid a high-PW air
mass will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms today
and this evening from southern AL/GA across the FL Panhandle.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible from the
Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest tonight. Here, seasonally
moist low-levels and moderately low/mid-level southwesterlies will
help support warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms within the
warm sector ahead of a modest cold front. Highest coverage across
this region will likely occur from northeast KS into
northwest/north-central MO and south-central IA. In both of these
areas, poor lapse rates and related weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential.

Persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging centered
over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will continue
to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with Tropical
Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
severity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 091610
SWODY1
SPC AC 091608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Upper ridging will be prevalent over the Rockies/Plains, with
surface high pressure over the Midwest and much of the East. While
severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms will occur across the
coastal Southeast, and across the Upper Midwest and portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley tonight near/ahead of an advancing
front.

In the West, persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging
centered over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will
continue to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with
Tropical Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
intensity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 091929
SWODY1
SPC AC 091927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Outlook...
Only minor changes were made to introduce thunder across southern
Wyoming in response to trends. Otherwise, no changes are needed to
the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 10/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025/

...Discussion...
Upper ridging will be prevalent over the Rockies/Plains, with
surface high pressure over the Midwest and much of the East. While
severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms will occur across the
coastal Southeast, and across the Upper Midwest and portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley tonight near/ahead of an advancing
front.

In the West, persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging
centered over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will
continue to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with
Tropical Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
intensity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 100053
SWODY1
SPC AC 100051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge over the southern High Plains remains favorable for
higher PW air mass to advect across the southwestern U.S. into the
southern Great Basin. 00z soundings from this region support this
with modestly steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms, especially from the higher terrain of northern AZ
into central UT. Lighting may be noted with the stronger updrafts
well into the overnight hours.

Low-level warm advection is expected to aid thunderstorm development
later tonight across the lower MO Valley. High-level diffluent flow
aloft is expected to increase ahead of a digging upper trough and
this should encourage elevated convective development immediately
ahead of a cold front. Forecast buoyancy appears inadequate for
severe development.

..Darrow.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 100522
SWODY1
SPC AC 100520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible today.

...Western U.S...

Strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to
advance inland during the latter half of the period. As this occurs,
dominant upper ridge over the southern High Plains will be
suppressed south into northeast Mexico as broad midlevel height
falls spread across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance
continues to favor moist trajectories across western Mexico into the
southern Great Basin/Four Corners. As a result, seasonally high PW
values will remain entrenched across this region and this will limit
lapse rates within a weak-modest instability environment. As the
upper trough advances east, midlevel flow will strengthen across the
lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin such that vertical shear
profiles may become supportive of a few weak supercells, per 23z
forecast sounding at LAS (30kt 0-6km shear). Poor-weak lapse rates
and weak low-level shear are not particularly conducive for
organized severe, thus will maintain less than 5% severe probs
during the day1 period.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are expected within a poor lapse
rate environment across much of the FL Peninsula, and across
portions of the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes region in
association with a digging upper trough. Severe is not expected in
either of these areas due to weak instability.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 101233
SWODY1
SPC AC 101232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture present over southern AZ and the Lower CO
River Valley this morning will spread northward today as an upper
trough/low moves slowly inland along the West Coast. Across the
Great Basin, lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain fairly modest,
and daytime heating will likely be hindered to some extent by
mid/high-level cloudiness. Still, at least weak instability should
develop by late afternoon, which combined with increasing mid-level
flow with the approach of the upper trough/low may support a strong thunderstorm or two. However, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include any hail/wind probabilities across the
southern Great Basin and vicinity with this update.

Elsewhere, ongoing elevated thunderstorms aided by a westerly
low-level jet may persist through the morning over MO and IL before
eventually weakening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also
occur today across parts of the FL Peninsula/Keys, Great Lakes, and
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Across all these regions, the
forecast combination of instability and shear appears inadequate for
organized severe convection.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity this afternoon into evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity the remainder of this afternoon into the evening.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Mid-level
moisture will continue to advect across northern Mexico and the
Southwest through tonight. Modest heating and destabilization should
support a couple of stronger storms across NV, northwest AZ and
western UT. On the fringes of strong southwesterly flow aloft,
transient storm organization is possible with the strongest cells
capable of damaging gusts. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the
thunder line. See the previous discussion below.

..Lyons.. 10/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will linger across portions of the western
U.S. and the southern Florida Peninsula.

...01z Update...

Upper low off the Oregon Coast will advance inland later tonight.
This will maintain favorably moist trajectories across the lower CO
River Valley into the Great Basin. Seasonally high PW values are
noted across this region which has stunted lapse rates, but an axis
of modest instability continues from southeast CA-southern
NV-western UT. This corridor remains modestly sheared through 6km,
but storms have struggled to produce severe, partly due to somewhat
poor lapse rates. Even so, this corridor should remain convectively
active tonight and a brief wind gust can not be ruled out with the
most robust updrafts.

Across south Florida, isolated-scattered thunderstorms will
concentrate near the southern tip of the peninsula in conjunction
with a northward-drifting upper trough. However, the majority of
lightning will likely remain just offshore.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 110551
SWODY1
SPC AC 110549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. A
brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the Outer Banks of
North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin Region...

Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a notable upper low off the
OR Coast shifting east in line with latest model guidance.
Associated upper trough will advance inland by sunrise and into the
northern inter mountain/Great Basin by 12/00z as stronger midlevel
flow rotates through the base of the trough into UT. During the
latter half of the period an intensifying 500mb jet will eject
across northwest CO into southern WY as the trough becomes negative
tilted.

PW values are seasonally high across northern Mexico into the CO
Plateau as a dominant downstream upper ridge maintains favorable
deep layer south-southwesterly trajectories across this portion of
the U.S. While profiles are quite moist across this region, lapse
rates are necessarily weak and this will limit buoyancy ahead of the
trough. Even so, a strongly forced frontal zone will surge across
the interior west to a position along the ID/WY border, arcing
southwest across central UT into southern NV by late afternoon.
Scattered convection should easily develop ahead of the upper
trough, and a few robust updrafts could attain weak supercell
characteristics, the strongest of which may generate some hail/wind.


Southern influence of stronger midlevel flow will extend into
central AZ by peak heating. While temperatures are not forecast to
be that warm, favorably upslope flow into the Mogollon Rim may
encourage a few robust updrafts at this lower latitude. Strong
deep-layer shear suggests the most robust updrafts could exhibit
rotation. Have extended MRGL Risk into this region to account for a
few supercells. Isolated damaging winds are the primary concern
across AZ.

...NC Outer Banks...

Slow-moving upper trough over the FL Peninsula will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the Carolina Coast during the latter half
of the period. This feature may approach the southern NC Coast by
12/12z which will prove favorable for lower 70s surface dew points
to advect inland as easterly low-level flow strengthens after 06z.
While lapse rates will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is
expected with 70s dew points - more than adequate for lightning
discharge with deeper updrafts. Forecast shear profiles suggest at
least a low risk for a brief tornado and gusty winds with any
supercells that form in this environment.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts may occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will
advance inland today across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At
the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these
areas through the period, while becoming less well defined into the
Southwest. A broad fetch of tropical moisture emanating from the
eastern Pacific will continue to stream northward ahead of the upper
trough, with rich low/mid-level moisture expected across parts of
the Southwest and southern Great Basin. Ongoing cloudiness and
precipitation across eastern UT/western CO into AZ will hinder
daytime heating to some extent. Greater instability should develop
on the periphery of the morning precipitation, namely across parts
of western/central UT and central/southern AZ. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (locally greater across UT) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. The
only appreciable change to the Marginal Risk with this update was to
expand it southward into more of central/southern AZ where somewhat
greater heating/instability is forecast to occur/develop later
today.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A slow-moving upper trough/low over the Southeast will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the coast of the Carolinas during the
latter half of the period. This feature may approach the NC Coast
early Sunday morning, which will prove favorable for upper 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints to advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. Ample forecast
low-level and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and
gusty winds with any supercell that can form in this environment and
move inland across the Outer Banks/coastal NC.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough will overspread
the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon and
evening. This should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms
initially developing over the higher terrain to move northeastward
across parts of southern/eastern MT. Low-level moisture should
remain fairly limited across this area, and lapse rates aloft are
forecast to be modest. This should hinder the degree of instability
which can develop. Still, enhanced mid-level flow may still support
some threat for strong/gusty winds with any convection that
persists. The overall severe threat appears too isolated to include
low wind probabilities at this time, although trends will be
monitored.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 111631
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 111955
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Daytime
heating is underway after morning cloud cover with cu development
evident across the high terrain in northern Arizona and much of
Utah. Convection is likely to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon with approaching large scale ascent. The marginally
unstable air mass and strong deep layer shear should support a few
stronger storms capable of a few instances of hail and gusty winds.

The Marginal risk continues across coastal North Carolina/Outer
Banks in anticipation of the surface low/warm front approaching
later this evening. Guidance continues to indicate a few rotating
storms may approach the coast by late evening/early morning with
potential for a tornado or gusty winds.

..Thornton.. 10/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025/

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...01z Update...

Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.

Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado can be expected.

..Darrow.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 120524
SWODY1
SPC AC 120522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible today.

...Southwestern U.S...

Large-scale upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over
northeast Mexico into TX through the day1 period as a strong upper
low digs south along the Pacific Northwest Coast. This flow regime
will ensure modest-strong southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest a favorably moist trajectory across northwest Mexico into
AZ. Seasonally high PW air mass will hold near the international
border, but forecast soundings also suggest lapse rates should
remain poor - though sufficient for at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by
afternoon. With minimal CINH, convective temperatures will easily be
breached and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should readily
develop. While a few storms may exhibit some weak rotation at times,
current thinking is this environment is not particularly conducive
for more than sub-marginal wind gusts with the most robust
convection.

...Elsewhere...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the upper MS Valley in
advance of a strong short-wave trough, and along/near the Atlantic
Coast in association with a cyclone that is lifting north, just
offshore. Poor instability across these regions do not support
severe thunderstorms.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 121201
SWODY1
SPC AC 121200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds the main threats.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the
northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over
much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture
will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations.
Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly
modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon
with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen
with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and
spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With
favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of
these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and/or gusty winds.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 121624
SWODY1
SPC AC 121623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 121947
SWODY1
SPC AC 121946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Latest GOES visible imagery and surface observations show an outflow
boundary - emanating from decaying convection over central AZ -
drifting southward into south-central AZ where temperatures continue
to warm into the 80s with MLCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg.
Although forcing for ascent across the region remains fairly
nebulous, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary
remains plausible through the evening hours. Regional VWPs continue
to sample 35-45 knot winds between 5-6 km AGL, which may support
some degree of storm organization/longevity and a localized severe
hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 10/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 130031
SWODY1
SPC AC 130030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Onset of nocturnal cooling will lead to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS over the next few hours. Latest lightning
data supports this with a decrease in thunderstorm activity as
buoyancy weakens. Modest instability lingers across the lower
deserts of the Southwest where roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted
along the international border of southwest AZ, but meager
instability is noted elsewhere. Even so, thunderstorms are weakening
across southern AZ, and 00z sounding from TUS was not particularly
impressive with only 6 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This yielded
around 600 J/kg MLCAPE, and further weakening is expected over the
next few hours. While gusty winds may accompany the most robust
convection early this evening, severe threat appears too low to
warrant probabilities overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 130519
SWODY1
SPC AC 130518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwestern U.S...

Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
levels.

Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
lapse rates/modest buoyancy.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 131237
SWODY1
SPC AC 131236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four
Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight
along parts of south-central coastal California.

...Coastal California...
An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning
will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant
strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and
overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should
support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected
to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow
aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast
late this evening and overnight.

...Southwest into Far West Texas...
Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging
centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture
with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the
Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal
heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon,
with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again
initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four
Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft
organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the
more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this
afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico
into portions of far west TX.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 131546
SWODY1
SPC AC 131545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
COASTAL CALIFORNIA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

..Hart/Moore.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 131947
SWODY1
SPC AC 131945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...20Z Update...

...AZ...
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the
afternoon/evening and overnight. This flow, coupled with modest
mid-level moisture and buoyancy will promote a continued threat for
isolated strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be capable of hail
and/or gusty winds. MCD #2144 was recently issued to address this
isolated severe potential.

...Coastal Central/Southern CA...
The deep upper low currently just off the northern CA coast will
continue to progress southward tonight, ending the period just off
the central CA coast. A strong mid-level jet max will rotate around
this low as it progresses southward, spreading eastward into
southern CA late tonight/early tomorrow. A strong frontal band is
anticipated along the leading edge of the ascent associated with
this speed max. Current guidance places this band near the coast
around 05Z/06Z before then moving inland over the next few hours.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate predominantly shallow convection
within and ahead of this frontal band, although a few lightning
flash are possible (most likely within the frontal band itself).
Additionally, the combination of modest buoyancy and strong
deep-layer vertical shear could result in rotation within any more
persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado. Even so, the modest and shallow buoyancy
should keep updrafts transient, and any rotation within those
updrafts short lived, keeping the overall severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 140031
SWODY1
SPC AC 140030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...01z Update...

Strong upper low is currently located off the northern CA Coast,
just southwest of EKA. This feature is moving south as a 100+kt
500mb jet digs along the back side of this trough. Later tonight,
left exit region of the jet max will approach the southern CA Coast
and this should encourage low-topped convection along the cold
front. Forecast soundings suggest only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE can
be expected in advance of the front as lapse rates will only be on
the order of 6 C/km. Strong 0-6km shear favors the potential for
updraft organization, thus low severe probabilities for wind, and
perhaps a brief weak tornado will continue overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 140533
SWODY1
SPC AC 140531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
possible across parts of the southern Rockies from late afternoon
into the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible this morning through midday along the southern California
coast.

...Southern CA and the Southern Rockies...

Upper low continues digging south just off the CA coast, in line
with latest model guidance. As midlevel speed max rounds the base of
the trough early in the period the upper low will advance inland,
then shift into the Great Basin by 15/12z. Weak frontal convection
has developed ahead of this feature along the cold front. While most
updrafts are too shallow to generate lightning, some risk for
isolated thunderstorms is expected as the front surges inland at the
start of the period. Left-exit region of the speed max should aid
this activity, and some risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
weak tornado can be expected with this frontal convection.
Convective threat will decrease quickly across the lower CO River
Valley.

Downstream, upper anticyclone is stubbornly holding across the
southern Plains into northeast Mexico. This feature will ensure
favorable trajectories for maintaining seasonally high PW values
across northern Mexico into the southern Rockies. While this higher
moisture content necessitates weaker lapse rates across this region,
CINH will remain low and even modest boundary-layer heating will
lead to adequate instability for robust updrafts. Forecast soundings
exhibit 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 70s to near 80F. Additionally,
deep-layer shear should support the potential for organized
updrafts, and a few supercells will likely evolve. At this time will
maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with this activity, but later
outlooks could reflect higher probabilities if confidence increases
regarding the coverage/intensity of convection.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through midday for portions of
coastal southern California.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the
Southwest, as upper ridging is maintained over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley and as an upper trough/low progresses inland
over CA and the Great Basin. A fetch of low/mid-level moisture will
continue streaming northward from northern Mexico into parts of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through the period. Large-scale
forcing will remain nebulous across these areas, but orographic lift
and filtered daytime heating should encourage isolated to scattered
convective development across parts of NM this afternoon. With
moderate to strong deep-layer shear and weak instability expected,
the stronger updrafts may acquire some organization and marginal
supercell characteristics. Isolated hail and gusty winds appear
possible with this activity as it spreads generally northeastward
through the early evening before weakening.

...Coastal Southern California...
A low-topped line of convective showers will continue to advance east-southeastward this morning across parts of coastal southern CA
as an upper trough/low advances inland over central CA. Strong
mid-level westerly flow will accompany this convective line, and
locally gusty winds remain possible for a few more hours this
morning. However, meager instability will likely continue to hinder
the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 141601
SWODY1
SPC AC 141600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through early afternoon for portions
of coastal southern California.

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 141948
SWODY1
SPC AC 141947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening.

...20z Update...
The primary adjustment for this update was the removal of risk
probabilities across coastal southern CA. Latest surface
observations continue to sample winds associated with a shallow
convective frontal band of a similar magnitude to regional gradient
winds (generally gusting between 35-45 mph). Warming cloud-top
temperatures and a diminishing inland warm sector (where observed
temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than depicted by
recent guidance) suggest any lingering severe potential will likely
diminish further through the afternoon. That said, a waterspout or
two remains possible in the near-term (next 1-2 hours) as the band
approaches the coast due to strong wind shear through the lowest few kilometers. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track; see
the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 150059
SWODY1
SPC AC 150058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this evening.

...Discussion...
The 00Z ABQ RAOB showed a moderately favorable severe environment
with around 700 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 60 knots of effective shear.
Forcing is somewhat nebulous and has resulted in isolated convection
up to this point (limited to northern New Mexico around 01Z). While
the boundary layer will continue to cool and stabilize, some
mid-level cooling/moistening may result in increasing elevated
instability by 04-05Z. Given the strong wind profile, any storms
which develop could pose some isolated hail/wind threat for a few
hours late this evening into the early overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 150548
SWODY1
SPC AC 150546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible today across parts of the
southern/central Rockies into the High Plains this evening into the
overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few marginally
severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large western CONUS trough, seen on water vapor imagery across
southern California early this morning, will shift slowly east
through the period. A mid-level jet streak on the southern periphery
of this trough will shift east across the central Rockies. This will
result in strong lee troughing across eastern Colorado this evening
and into tonight. As this lee cyclone deepens, a warm front will
sharpen across the central Plains.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
As the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado today, low-level
flow will strengthen. As this occurs, low-level southerly flow will
result in moistening conditions across New Mexico and into Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
Dakota. 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this
region (perhaps somewhat delayed across northern New Mexico where
morning cloudcover may be present. While instability will be mostly
weak, strong effective shear (45 to 50 knots per RAP forecast
soundings) will support storm organization (including the potential
for supercells) with any stronger updrafts which develop. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and the aforementioned thermodynamic and
kinematic factors will support isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level turning across
portions of northern New Mexico which may support an isolated
tornado threat.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 151238
SWODY1
SPC AC 151236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the Sierras and western Great
Basin will advance eastward towards the Rockies through the period.
An attendant 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will also shift
from the Southwest/Four Corners to the southern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today. As large-scale ascent associated with
these features overspreads this region, a surface lee cyclone is
forecast to deepen over north-central/northeast CO by this evening.
Low-level moisture through the Rio Grande Valley in NM and central
High Plains is expected to remain fairly limited, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s. Still, daytime heating and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates (mainly over the central High
Plains) should support the development of weak instability this
afternoon.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies by early afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. This activity should move
generally northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support isolated
supercells with a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional severe
winds may also occur. With time this evening, these thunderstorms
will move northward and cross a front forecast to be draped across
southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Give sufficient MUCAPE forecast
north of the front, a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the central Plains may support a continued threat for
isolated severe hail as this convection becomes elevated into parts
of eastern WY/western SD. Overall, confidence in a more concentrated
area of severe hail potential remains too low for increased
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 151605
SWODY1
SPC AC 151603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

..Leitman/Moore.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Overall, weak thermodynamics
will likely limit the coverage of more intense storms. Marginally
greater surface moisture is noted near the Palmer Divide. This could
be a local corridor where a stronger, marginal supercell could
evolve later this afternoon. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 10/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 160043
SWODY1
SPC AC 160042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...01Z Update...

...Southern/Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the region, downstream of
a deep upper low moving across the Great Basin. Despite the loss of
daytime heating and much of the surface-based buoyancy,
thunderstorms will likely persist throughout the evening and tonight
amid cool mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse
rates. Moderate vertical shear will persist throughout the evening
and overnight as well, with the resulting combination of buoyancy
and shear sufficient for a few supercells and an isolated severe
risk.

Additional information about this area is available in MCD #2148.

..Mosier.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broad upper troughing over the western CONUS will move gradually
eastward today as an embedded upper low progresses northeastward
from eastern UT through the western Dakotas. Moderate to strong
mid-level flow will extend through the eastern periphery of this
low, spreading from southern/central Rockies northeastward through
the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Primary surface low associated with this system will also track
northeastward, beginning the period over the western NE/SD border
vicinity and likely ending the period occluded over the
north-central ND/south-central MB vicinity. This progression will
push a cold front eastward across the Dakotas and western NE, and
southeastward across northeast/east-central CO, and far northwest
KS.

The cold front is forecast to move through western NE, northeast CO,
and far northwest KS around peak heating. Low-level moisture will be
modest (i.e. dewpoints generally in the low 50s), but strong
boundary-layer mixing will result in steep low-level lapse rates and temperatures in upper 70s/low 80s. These conditions should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy, despite the limited low-level
moisture. Thunderstorms are expected near the front as a combination
of large-scale forcing for ascent and lift along the front interact
with the modest buoyancy.

Moderate to strong (i.e. 50 to 60 kt) effective bulk shear is
expected to be in place, supporting the potential for some more
organized storms. Hail is the primary severe risk, but a few strong
gusts are possible as well. Southerly to perhaps even southeasterly
surface winds will result in some low-level curvature near the front
in northeast CO, northwest KS, and southwest NE, to east/northeast
of a secondary surface low over eastern CO. A low-probability
tornado threat will result, but front-parallel shear suggests a
mostly linear mode as well as tendency for undercutting by the cold
front. As such, any tornado threat should remain low.

Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwesterly
low-level jet. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small hail at times as activity develops ahead
of the approaching upper low.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 161242
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across the central
High Plains with this update. Within broad upper-level troughing
encompassing much of the western CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough
will eject northeastward today from the central Rockies to the
northern Plains. The primary surface low associated with this
feature will likewise develop northward across the Dakotas through
the day, eventually reaching the ND/MB border late tonight. A cold
front will continue advancing east-southeastward over the
northern/central Plains, with surface lee troughing extending
southward from this front over the central High Plains of eastern
CO/western KS and vicinity. Secondary surface low development is
also forecast across this area. Low-level moisture ahead of the lee
trough/cold front will likely remain rather limited. But, generally
50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor by late afternoon/early evening across parts of western/central NE into
eastern CO/western KS along/near the front.

Daytime heating of this airmass should support weak destabilization
and eventual thunderstorm development as MLCIN gradually erodes. A
modest uptick in a southerly low-level jet may also aid thunderstorm development through the evening. Any convection which forms along
the front may become supercellular given around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear forecast. But, this activity should be undercut
fairly quickly by the cold front and become elevated. Isolated large
hail appears to be the main threat, but an occasional severe gust
may also occur with any thunderstorms that can remain surface based.
A brief window may also exist early this evening for a tornado as
low-level shear increases, before convection becomes mainly
elevated.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 161602
SWODY1
SPC AC 161601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 161947
SWODY1
SPC AC 161945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...20Z Update...
Only minor updates were made to the general thunderstorm forecast.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 170044
SWODY1
SPC AC 170042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment remains in
place this evening across a narrow zone from far east-central CO
into northwest KS and southwest NE, generally to the east-northeast
of a surface low across eastern CO, and along/south of a
southward-sagging cold front. Within this zone, MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt is supporting supercell
potential, though the longevity of the remaining threat will be
limited by nocturnally increasing MLCINH. The threat for isolated
severe hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado may persist until
around 02-03 UTC. See MCD 2149 for more information.

..Dean.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 170522
SWODY1
SPC AC 170520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts
will be possible this evening through the overnight period from the
southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
near the base of this trough is forecast to amplify by late in the
period across the southern Rockies. Farther northwest, an upstream
shortwave trough and vigorous mid/upper-level jet will dig
southeastward across the northern Rockies late tonight.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit diurnal storm potential, but isolated strong-storm development
cannot be ruled out by early evening. An increase in primarily
elevated convection is expected from mid/late evening onward, in
response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and eventual
approach of the southern Rockies shortwave trough.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late in the period will support potential for at least
transient storm organization tonight, though guidance continues to
vary regarding the coverage and intensity of overnight elevated
convection. Isolated large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms into early Saturday
morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 171253
SWODY1
SPC AC 171251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
trough near the base of the larger-scale trough is forecast to
amplify as it moves across the Desert Southwest and into the
southern High Plains.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit storm coverage/intensity through the early evening. An
increase in primarily elevated convection is expected from mid/late
evening onward in association with a strengthening low-level jet.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late tonight will support increasing potential for some
updraft organization. The primary hazards with the stronger storms
will be an isolated risk for large hail and localized severe gusts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 171554
SWODY1
SPC AC 171552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 171952
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 180058
SWODY1
SPC AC 180056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening into late tonight from the southern and
central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central/southern Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) is in
place this evening from parts of the southern Plains northeastward
into the lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest, along/ahead of a weak,
slow-moving cold front. An increase in storm coverage is expected
this evening from eastern KS into northern MO and parts of the Upper
Midwest, as a mid/upper-level trough moves across the region and a
low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. Effective shear of 40+ kt
will support potential for organized convection, though storm
intensity will tend to be limited by generally weak midlevel lapse
rates. Isolated hail and localized damaging gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms, especially from eastern KS into
western/northern MO, where instability will be greater compared to
areas farther northeast.

Farther south, storm coverage is expected to increase late tonight
across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS, in response to
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the southern
Rockies. Some cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates
will maintain moderate MUCAPE through the night, while effective
shear will remain sufficient for occasional storm organization. The
strongest storms late tonight may become capable of producing
isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 180602
SWODY1
SPC AC 180600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight
across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may
occur.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the central/northern Plains later today. In response to this system, a
shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains will eject
quickly east-northeastward during the day toward the ArkLaTex. The
combination of these systems will eventually result in development
of a deep and progressive trough becoming established over the MS
Valley by early Sunday morning. As this occurs, a surface low will
develop along a cold front across the south-central Plains. This
surface low will deepen and move northeastward through the period,
eventually reaching Lower MI by 12Z Sunday morning.

...Eastern TX/OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley...
Convection will likely increase in coverage and intensity from
southern MO into eastern OK/TX from late morning onward, as the
ejecting shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy
and strengthening deep-layer shear will support organized convection
that will spread eastward through the afternoon. Initial supercell
development could pose a threat for a hail and locally damaging
wind, along with some tornado potential. Increasing ascent will tend
to favor eventual storm clustering and possible QLCS development
with time, resulting in a continued damaging-wind threat, along with
some embedded brief tornado potential.

Guidance generally depicts a local buoyancy minimum across eastern
AR into western TN by late afternoon, which could cause some
weakening as storms move into this area. However, a notable increase
in the low-level jet may support some reintensification of storms
during the evening near and east of the lower MS Valley. A continued
threat for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes may
persist overnight near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity.


...Parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Early-day convection across parts of the southern Great Lakes
vicinity could produce locally gusty winds, through weak instability
may tend to limit organized severe potential with the morning
storms. Additional storms may develop during the afternoon within a
favorably sheared environment, with a strongly forced line becoming
possible later this evening/overnight as the surface low deepens and
moves northeastward. The magnitude of the severe threat may be
limited by scant instability, but strong ascent and strong
deep-layer flow/shear will support some potential for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 181247
SWODY1
SPC AC 181246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the central/northern Plains later today. Water-vapor imagery this
morning shows a potent shortwave trough over the southern High
Plains and this feature will quickly move toward the ArkLaTex by
early evening. The combination of these systems will eventually
result in development of a deep and progressive trough becoming
established over the MS Valley by early Sunday morning. Morning
surface analysis places a low over northern OK and frontal zone
extending northeast. The low will develop northeast during the
period and eventually reach Lower MI by early Sunday morning.

...Eastern TX/OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley...
Morning radar/satellite imagery shows the initial shower/storm
development over western MO/eastern KS into parts of west TX. This
activity will likely increase in coverage and intensity from
southern MO into eastern OK/TX through midday, as the ejecting
shortwave trough approaches the region. A plume of 60s deg F
surface dewpoints and some diurnal destabilization will lead to
moderate buoyancy by afternoon. As storms gradually develop,
strengthening deep-layer shear will support storm organization.
Some initial supercell development could pose a threat for hail with
some tornado/damaging wind potential also perhaps accompanying this
activity. Increasing ascent and upscale growth into convective
bands/lines will favor a continued risk for damaging gusts and
possibly some embedded brief tornado potential.

Prior forecast thinking of reduced buoyancy centered over eastern
AR/western TN may result in storms weakening as they move into this
area. However, a notable increase in the low-level jet may support
some reintensification of storms during the evening near and east of
the lower MS Valley towards evening and into tonight. A continued
threat for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes may
persist overnight near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Latest model guidance generally shows scattered storms developing
later this afternoon coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Initial storm development over the MO/IL/western KY vicinity will
tend to grow upscale into a forced thunderstorm band later this evening/overnight as forcing for ascent increases and overspreads
the region from the west. The magnitude of the severe threat may be
limited by scant instability, but strong ascent and strong
deep-layer flow/shear will support some potential for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 181619
SWODY1
SPC AC 181617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A southern stream shortwave trough will eject quickly
east-northeastward from TX/OK to AR/MO, prior to phasing with an
amplifying northern stream trough by tonight across the mid MS
Valley. Downstream from the phasing troughs, a deepening surface
cyclone will develop northeastward tonight from the mid MS Valley to
Lower MI, as a trailing cold front surges southeastward from the
Plains into the mid-lower MS Valley.

...TX/OK today into the MS/OH Valleys through early Sunday...
Regional 12z soundings revealed a plume of 7.5-8 C/km midlevel lapse
rates (FWD-OUN-LMN) atop low-level dewpoints in the 60s, which is
already contributing to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg)
as of mid morning. As continued forcing for ascent with the lead
shortwave trough overspreads the moisture/buoyancy plume, ongoing
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon from southern MO/IL to eastern OK/western AR and
north/northeast TX. Initial storms will be in the form of
clusters/short line segments with upscale growth into a more
extensive squall line expected by later this afternoon/evening.

Buoyancy will increase some in the moisture plume through the
afternoon with surface heating in cloud breaks, and deep-layer
vertical shear will increase with the approach of the ejecting
midlevel trough. Thus, the stronger embedded cells will have the
potential to produce large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter) along
with an increase in the threat for wind damage as convection becomes
more linear. The tornado threat is a bit more uncertain given the
early/messy start to convection this morning, and since low-level
shear will not be strong this afternoon in the warm sector as a
result of primary cyclogenesis not occurring until tonight from IL
into lower MI (north of the richer low-level moisture). Still, a
couple of tornadoes may occur with embedded circulations. There
will be the potential for more discrete supercells and a few
tornadoes ahead of the larger-scale line of storms from far east TX
into LA/southern AR and MS overnight where boundary-layer dewpoints
exceed 70 F and low-level shear increases.

Though buoyancy will be weak, rapidly strengthening wind fields
overnight and forcing for ascent along the synoptic cold front could
support a low-topped line of convection with the potential for wind
damage and possible a couple of embedded tornadoes from the OH
Valley into southeast Lower MI ~06-12z.

..Thompson/Supinie.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 181951
SWODY1
SPC AC 181949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon
into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes
and hail may occur.

...20Z Update...
Given the progression of the shortwave trough in the southern
Plains, severe probabilities have been removed behind ongoing
convection from parts of northeast Texas into western Arkansas and
southwest Missouri. The 18Z soundings from Shreveport and Little
Rock show modest mid-level lapse rates and low-level shear. The wind
profile is expected to improve somewhat later this afternoon into
the early evening. Discrete showers and thunderstorms are steadily
increasing in intensity in the ArkLaTex region. As this activity
move north and east over the next several hours, it will pose a
locally higher tornado threat so long as storm mode remains
favorable. Additional forecast details can be found in the previous
forecast below. Other short-term details are in MCD 2152.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025/

...Synopsis...
A southern stream shortwave trough will eject quickly
east-northeastward from TX/OK to AR/MO, prior to phasing with an
amplifying northern stream trough by tonight across the mid MS
Valley. Downstream from the phasing troughs, a deepening surface
cyclone will develop northeastward tonight from the mid MS Valley to
Lower MI, as a trailing cold front surges southeastward from the
Plains into the mid-lower MS Valley.

...TX/OK today into the MS/OH Valleys through early Sunday...
Regional 12z soundings revealed a plume of 7.5-8 C/km midlevel lapse
rates (FWD-OUN-LMN) atop low-level dewpoints in the 60s, which is
already contributing to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg)
as of mid morning. As continued forcing for ascent with the lead
shortwave trough overspreads the moisture/buoyancy plume, ongoing
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon from southern MO/IL to eastern OK/western AR and
north/northeast TX. Initial storms will be in the form of
clusters/short line segments with upscale growth into a more
extensive squall line expected by later this afternoon/evening.

Buoyancy will increase some in the moisture plume through the
afternoon with surface heating in cloud breaks, and deep-layer
vertical shear will increase with the approach of the ejecting
midlevel trough. Thus, the stronger embedded cells will have the
potential to produce large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter) along
with an increase in the threat for wind damage as convection becomes
more linear. The tornado threat is a bit more uncertain given the
early/messy start to convection this morning, and since low-level
shear will not be strong this afternoon in the warm sector as a
result of primary cyclogenesis not occurring until tonight from IL
into lower MI (north of the richer low-level moisture). Still, a
couple of tornadoes may occur with embedded circulations. There
will be the potential for more discrete supercells and a few
tornadoes ahead of the larger-scale line of storms from far east TX
into LA/southern AR and MS overnight where boundary-layer dewpoints
exceed 70 F and low-level shear increases.

Though buoyancy will be weak, rapidly strengthening wind fields
overnight and forcing for ascent along the synoptic cold front could
support a low-topped line of convection with the potential for wind
damage and possible a couple of embedded tornadoes from the OH
Valley into southeast Lower MI ~06-12z.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 190102
SWODY1
SPC AC 190100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible this
evening into late tonight across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi
into parts of western Alabama. Some potential for locally damaging
wind and a couple brief tornadoes may also continue into parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...ArkLaMiss into parts of AL/TN and the FL Panhandle...
Widespread strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening
across the ArkLaMiss region, in advance of an ejecting
mid/upper-level shortwave trough that is approaching the lower/mid
MS Valley. Buoyancy will remain rather modest, but strengthening
deep-layer flow fields will continue to support organized convection
as storms move eastward across LA/MS into parts of TN/AL and the FL
Panhandle. Continued storm clustering and possible QLCS development
will support potential for scattered damaging winds this evening
into the overnight hours. Increasing low-level shear and
boundary-layer moisture will also result in some supercell and QLCS
tornado potential, especially from northern LA into MS, where the
richest boundary-layer moisture (with dewpoints near/above 70 F)
will reside.

...Ohio Valley vicinity...
As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough begins to phase with
the shortwave approaching the MS Valley, a surface low is forecast
to deepen as it moves northeastward toward Lower MI, accompanied by
a substantial increase in low/midlevel flow fields. As this occurs,
some increase in convective organization will be possible as ongoing
convection moves northeastward across parts of the OH Valley into
Lower MI. Increasingly scant instability may tend to limit the
magnitude of the severe threat, but some potential for locally
damaging wind and a brief tornado may continue through the late
evening. There is also some potential for a band of low-topped
convection with gusty winds to develop along a surging cold front
prior to the end of the forecast period.

...Parts of central/eastern OK...
A few strong to severe storms have developed this evening across
parts of central/eastern OK along a southeastward-moving cold front.
Increasing CINH and decreasing instability with time will lead to an
eventual weakening trend, but very isolated hail and strong gusts
cannot be ruled out through around 02Z.

..Dean.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 190602
SWODY1
SPC AC 190600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND ALSO NEAR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late tonight, localized
wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be possible from the
northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New England.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt
as it moves eastward from the MS Valley into the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast. A surface low initially over Lower MI will move
north-northeastward toward Hudson Bay, with secondary low
development expected in the upper Great Lakes vicinity late in the
period. A cold front will surge southeastward through parts of the
Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...South AL into the FL Panhandle and southwest GA...
Strong to locally severe storms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period across parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle.
Rich boundary-layer moisture, sufficient buoyancy, and initially
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for
locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. As large-scale
ascent lifts away from the region with time, a general weakening
trend is currently expected from late morning into the afternoon.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the central Appalachians into the
Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will be strong, with 40-50
kt in the 850-700 mb layer. A band of low-topped convection
(potentially with little or no lightning) will likely develop along
the eastward-moving cold front, and may become capable of producing convectively enhanced strong/damaging gusts within this strong-flow
regime.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 191237
SWODY1
SPC AC 191235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from
south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Localized wind damage will be possible later today from upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late
tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be
possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New
England.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful mid- to
upper-level trough from western Ontario southward to the central
Gulf Coast. This upper feature will attain a negative tilt as it
moves towards the Eastern Seaboard tonight. A cyclone analyzed this
morning over Lake Huron will move north-northeastward toward Hudson
Bay, while a trailing cold front will push east-southeastward
through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
An ongoing band of convection will continue to move eastward across
the northeast Gulf Coast as the airmass attempts to slowly
destabilize ahead of it. The latest surface observations confine
the richer moisture to the immediate coastal counties (i.e., beaches
and bays) of the FL Panhandle, where upper 60s to low 70s deg F
dewpoints reside. Relatively poor lapse rates will limit updraft
vigor and the overall coverage/intensity of strong to locally severe
storm activity. Nonetheless, the moist low levels in the presence
of moderate speed shear in the surface-2km layer will perhaps
support an isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado and/or a
damaging gust. This activity will likely weaken towards midday as
large-scale ascent focuses farther north and away from the region.

...Eastern OH into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
vicinity...
Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day
along/ahead of the cold front from the upper OH Valley/central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will
be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Recent
convection-allowing model guidance agrees in showing a developing
low-topped convective band initially over eastern OH spreading into
western PA coincident with weak instability. Have correspondingly
adjusted the western bound of the wind risk to account for this
model trend.

Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become
sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest
increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between
06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging
wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along
the front into early Monday morning.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 191624
SWODY1
SPC AC 191623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce
occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado,
this afternoon into the Appalachians and tonight into the
Mid-Atlantic. The isolated severe-storm threat along the northeast
Gulf coast will diminish by mid-late afternoon.

...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight...
A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress
from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early
Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of
occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front
continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and
reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow
band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the
front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the
surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning
flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit
region of the jet across central KY/middle TN.

Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the
depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge
separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some
potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow
and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this
afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians,
and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon...
The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of
the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a
weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is
expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland
destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening
southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe
threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this
afternoon.

...WA coast today...
A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep
low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped
thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast,
and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or
so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm
organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to
warrant the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Thompson/Supinie.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 191958
SWODY1
SPC AC 191956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce
occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado,
through the remainder of this afternoon into the Appalachians and
tonight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...20Z Update...
Given the increasing lack of large-scale support and the weakening
trend of convection near the west-central coast of Florida, severe probabilities have been removed from the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend.

A shallow band of convection continues north and eastward from the
upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The strongest
mid-level ascent will continue into the Mid-Atlantic this evening.
Despite minimal buoyancy, strong low/mid-level winds will support
sporadic damaging wind gust potential.

..Wendt.. 10/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025/

...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight...
A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress
from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early
Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of
occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front
continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and
reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow
band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the
front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the
surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning
flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit
region of the jet across central KY/middle TN.

Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the
depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge
separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some
potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow
and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this
afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians,
and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon...
The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of
the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a
weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is
expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland
destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening
southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe
threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this
afternoon.

...WA coast today...
A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep
low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped
thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast,
and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or
so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm
organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to
warrant the introduction of severe probabilities.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Low-topped convection, with minimal to no lightning flashes, may
produce isolated strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak
tornado across the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough
advancing across the OH/TN Valley region. 100kt 500mb speed max is
forecast to translate across NC to near the southern NJ coast by
20/12z as 180dm height falls overspread the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
Strongly forced convective line is currently observed along the cold
front, arcing from central PA-central VA-western NC. This line will
surge off the Mid-Atlantic coast after midnight along with the risk
for gusty winds. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited modest 0-3km lapse
rates, but negligible instability and a strongly sheared
environment. Lightning may struggle to develop with this low-topped
convection, but some risk for damaging winds remains, along with
perhaps a brief/weak tornado.

..Darrow.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 200527
SWODY1
SPC AC 200525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storm risk is low today.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not look particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS today. Even so, one notable trough
will eject across New England and this feature is expected to aid a
narrow band of frontal convection within a strongly sheared
environment. Early this morning, lower-mid 50s surface dew points
had spread across much of southern and coastal New England.
Boundary-layer moisture should gradually increase through sunrise
ahead of the cold front such that weak instability is expected to
evolve within a poor lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings
suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, but surface-based parcels will
struggle to be buoyant except right near the wind shift. With 180dm
height falls expected ahead of the trough, a forced line of
low-topped convection is expected. At this time it appears
instability will be a bit too low to warrant a meaningful risk of
severe wind with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 201254
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm risk is low today.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level
trough quickly moving east-northeast across the Lower Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic states. This upper feature will move into New
England later today. A band of showers and low-topped convection
are located east of a front forecast to push east through much of
the Northeast through the late afternoon. A moist airmass with weak instability was sampled by the 12 UTC ALB and OKX raobs (500-750
J/kg MUCAPE). However, current observations and short-term model
guidance suggest a very limited spatiotemporal window for deeper
convection to develop this morning. Although the risk for localized
strong gusts cannot be ruled out, a meaningful risk of severe wind
appears too low with this activity.

Across southern Florida, trailing cold front will stall across the
southern Peninsula. This boundary may serve as the focus for weak
convection as PW values remain seasonally high with adequate
buoyancy for deep updrafts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 201617
SWODY1
SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm risk is low today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
traversing the CONUS: a sharp, well-defined wave moving across the
Northeast and a lower-amplitude, more broad wave progressing through
the northern High Plains/northern Plains. The majority of the CONUS
is characterized by dry and stable conditions as high pressure
follows in the wake of a strong cold front associated with the
Northeast shortwave trough. The only exception is across New England
and far southern FL, which remain ahead of the cold front. The cold
front is expected to continue eastward/northeastward through New
England today, while becoming increasingly occluded as the
associated surface low tracks more northerly. A band of showers is
ongoing across New England now, but scant buoyancy across the region
has kept storms shallow thus far. A few instances of lightning are
still possible within this band as well as a few stronger,
convective augmented gusts. However, the overall severe probability
should remain too low to introduce an outlook area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in south FL as well,
but weak shear should preclude any severe threat.

Two other areas could see isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening and overnight, both associated with the western
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon/evening across southeast MT and adjacent northeast WY and
western SD amid strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Aa instance or two of small hail is possible as well.
Farther southeast, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight into
early tomorrow morning from the Arklatex into northwest MS as the
cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. These
storms should be post-frontal with very limited severe potential.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental
U.S.

No change is made to this outlook from the previous outlook.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
traversing the CONUS: a sharp, well-defined wave moving across the
Northeast and a lower-amplitude, more broad wave progressing through
the northern High Plains/northern Plains. The majority of the CONUS
is characterized by dry and stable conditions as high pressure
follows in the wake of a strong cold front associated with the
Northeast shortwave trough. The only exception is across New England
and far southern FL, which remain ahead of the cold front. The cold
front is expected to continue eastward/northeastward through New
England today, while becoming increasingly occluded as the
associated surface low tracks more northerly. A band of showers is
ongoing across New England now, but scant buoyancy across the region
has kept storms shallow thus far. A few instances of lightning are
still possible within this band as well as a few stronger,
convective augmented gusts. However, the overall severe probability
should remain too low to introduce an outlook area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in south FL as well,
but weak shear should preclude any severe threat.

Two other areas could see isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening and overnight, both associated with the western
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon/evening across southeast MT and adjacent northeast WY and
western SD amid strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Aa instance or two of small hail is possible as well.
Farther southeast, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight into
early tomorrow morning from the Arklatex into northwest MS as the
cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. These
storms should be post-frontal with very limited severe potential.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 210029
SWODY1
SPC AC 210027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will increase later tonight across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not expected.

...01z Update...

Nocturnal cooling is contributing to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS early this evening. 00z soundings support
this with only meager instability observed at UNR within a steep
low-level lapse rate environment. South FL soundings continue to
exhibit modest buoyancy but lightning trends are definitively down.
This trend is expected to continue over the next few hours.

Later tonight, elevated instability will increase across the lower
MS Valley. Weak convection is expected to develop across this region along/ahead of a surging frontal zone. Forecast soundings do not
appear particularly favorable for large hail and severe
probabilities will not be introduced.

..Darrow.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 210535
SWODY1
SPC AC 210533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions. Organized severe
threat appears low today.

...Discussion...

Strong upper trough will dig into the central Great Lakes region by
late afternoon as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates across southern
IL into central KY. 180m 12hr height falls will overspread much of
the Great Lakes region with substantial falls expected as far south
as the TN Valley. Latest model guidance suggests notable
boundary-layer heating will occur across southern IL/IN into
southern Lower MI by mid day, just ahead of a surging cold front.
This will contribute to steep 0-3km lapse rates and weak instability
as convective temperatures are breached by 19z ahead of the wind
shift. Forecast soundings support this with a few hundred J/kg
SBCAPE by early afternoon as 500mb temperatures cool below -24C.
Isolated thunderstorms should develop within a strongly forced
environment then spread downstream ahead of the progressive trough.
With surface dew points expected to mix into the upper 30s there is
some concern this activity could generate gusty winds; however, mean
wind in the boundary layer should remain around 30kt and this may
prove too weak to warrant more than sub-severe mixing/downdrafts.

Isolated thunderstorms, a few possibly strong, are also expected
along the trailing boundary across the lower MS Valley. While
large-scale forcing will be limited at lower latitudes, instability
will be considerably greater, though deep-layer shear will not be
strong. Current thinking is convection should remain sub severe with
the possibility for gusty winds.

Elsewhere - scattered convection should once again develop across
the southern FL Peninsula today, and perhaps across southern New
England very late in the period as LLJ strengthens into this part of
the country.

..Darrow/Moore.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over a portion of the southern Great Lakes.

...Southern Great Lakes...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper vorticity maximum
over western IA will quickly rotate through the base of a
larger-scale trough/mid-level low centered over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This upper feature is forecast to move across
the southern Great Lakes during the afternoon as a belt of intense
mid- to high-level flow arcs from the north-central Plains through
the MS/OH Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic states. The mid-level
cold pocket (-24 to -27 deg C at 500 mb) will overspread a boundary
layer with surface temperatures rising into the lower 60s
immediately ahead of a cold front. Latest RAP/NAM/HRRR model
guidance shows a plume of 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 9 deg C/km
protruding northeast from IN into northwest OH as widely scattered
convection develops during the early to mid afternoon. As this
shallow convection matures, strong to locally severe gusts (50-65
mph) are possible for a few hours before this activity weakens by
the early evening as it spreads across the Lake Erie vicinity.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of
northwest Gulf Coast states into the southern Appalachians, and late
tonight over portions of southern New England.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over parts of the southern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor loop and upper-air data indicate a midlevel low
tracking east-southeastward over the upper Midwest -- accompanied by
cold 500-mb temperatures (around -28C). This feature will continue
eastward across the Great Lakes through the period, while a cold
front moves from the Upper OH Valley to the Atlantic Coast. Within
the base of the midlevel low, an embedded vorticitiy maximum will
move across the Lower Great Lakes through the afternoon, while a
related surface front/wind shift overspreads IN, OH, and Lower MI.

...Southern Great Lakes...
In the wake of a weakening band of showers along the departing front
over the upper OH Valley, mostly clear skies will promote
boundary-layer heating/steepening low-level lapse rates (shallow
inverted-V profiles) beneath the midlevel cold pocket -- yielding
marginal destabilization across parts of northern OH and southeast
Lower MI. As widely scattered convection along the secondary surface
front/wind shift spreads/develops into this environment, a modest
uptick in updraft intensity is possible this afternoon. Given strong
deep-layer flow flanking the midlevel low, isolated strong-locally
severe convectively enhanced wind gusts (45-60 mph) will be possible
during the late afternoon into early evening time frame. Small hail
will also be possible with any shallow cellular convection.

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass ahead of the tail-end of the
cold front will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of east
TX into southern LA this afternoon. While moderate surface-based
buoyancy and around 25 kt of effective shear could promote a couple
strong storms along the front, warm temperatures aloft and minimal
large-scale forcing for ascent should generally limit upward
accelerations in updrafts.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible this afternoon
over parts of the southern Great Lakes.

...20Z Update...
Minimal changes were made with this update. The MRGL risk area was
trimmed behind an eastward-moving band of low-topped convection in
southeast Lower MI, where temperatures have dropped into the lower
50s. As these storms continue eastward across the remainder of far
southeast Lower MI and northern OH this afternoon, strong to locally
severe gusts (45-60 mph) will remain possible -- aided by steepened pre-convective boundary-layer lapse rates and 35-40-kt flow below 2
km AGL (per VWP data).

Farther south, the TSTM area was trimmed behind the
southeastward-moving cold front in the Southeast, and in the
southern Appalachians where convection has generally outpaced the
remaining buoyancy.

..Weinman.. 10/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025/

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor loop and upper-air data indicate a midlevel low
tracking east-southeastward over the upper Midwest -- accompanied by
cold 500-mb temperatures (around -28C). This feature will continue
eastward across the Great Lakes through the period, while a cold
front moves from the Upper OH Valley to the Atlantic Coast. Within
the base of the midlevel low, an embedded vorticitiy maximum will
move across the Lower Great Lakes through the afternoon, while a
related surface front/wind shift overspreads IN, OH, and Lower MI.

...Southern Great Lakes...
In the wake of a weakening band of showers along the departing front
over the upper OH Valley, mostly clear skies will promote
boundary-layer heating/steepening low-level lapse rates (shallow
inverted-V profiles) beneath the midlevel cold pocket -- yielding
marginal destabilization across parts of northern OH and southeast
Lower MI. As widely scattered convection along the secondary surface
front/wind shift spreads/develops into this environment, a modest
uptick in updraft intensity is possible this afternoon. Given strong
deep-layer flow flanking the midlevel low, isolated strong-locally
severe convectively enhanced wind gusts (45-60 mph) will be possible
during the late afternoon into early evening time frame. Small hail
will also be possible with any shallow cellular convection.

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass ahead of the tail-end of the
cold front will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of east
TX into southern LA this afternoon. While moderate surface-based
buoyancy and around 25 kt of effective shear could promote a couple
strong storms along the front, warm temperatures aloft and minimal
large-scale forcing for ascent should generally limit upward
accelerations in updrafts.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 220026
SWODY1
SPC AC 220025

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong midlevel height falls are spreading across the Mid-Atlantic
early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a progressive
trough advancing into the upper OH Valley and along with it
seasonally cold 500mb temperatures. This has contributed to steep
0-3km lapse rates and weak buoyancy north of the jet. However,
boundary layer cooling will negate this to a large degree over the
next few hours and convection should gradually weaken. Latest
lightning data supports this with decreasing flashes evident across
eastern OH. Even so, models appear to have underestimated buoyancy a
bit across western/northern VA as updrafts have penetrated levels
necessary for lightning. 00z sounding from IAD exhibited around 70
J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 2km AGL - just adequate for
lightning discharge. Have extended thunder probabilities into this
portion of the Mid-Atlantic to account for ongoing thunderstorms,
which should spread into southern PA over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 220517
SWODY1
SPC AC 220516

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe threat is negligible today.

...Discussion...

Dominant upper trough over the northeastern part of the CONUS will
influence much of the country east of the Rockies during the day1
period. Surface anticyclone is expected to settle into lower
latitudes which will force a front deep into the Gulf basin. As a
result, continental air mass will limit buoyancy across much of the
region.

Even so, lightning is expected with convection across portions much
of New England prior to a strong frontal passage, and over the
warmer waters of the lower Great Lakes. Another region where
lightning is expected is across portions of the southwest. A notable
upper low is approaching southern CA and this feature will advance
inland as a 500mb speed max translates across the lower CO River
Valley into AZ late in the period. PW values are not forecast to be
that high so instability will be limited ahead of the trough.
Despite the weak buoyancy, lightning is expected with the deeper
convective updrafts, initially across central CA by mid day, then
spreading east toward the Four Corners by early evening.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221251
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a pronounced upper trough/low
over the Northeast and southeast Canada, while another similar
feature moves ashore the CA coast today. In the low levels, a front
will push northeast through New England today. A several hour
window of opportunity will exist for low-topped thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the front across southern New England. The 12 UTC
OKX raob only showed around 200 J/kg MUCAPE in proximity to where
weak convection has developed this morning. Model forecast
soundings vary regarding the magnitude of instability (i.e., scant
to weak) across southern New England this morning, casting some
uncertainty on storm intensity. The scenario of a negligible risk
for severe from weak/shallow convection appears most probable with
this activity before it pushes east of the coast. Farther west over
CA and the Desert Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will intermittently occur as a lobe of ascent and adequate PW
facilitate the development of storms through early evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221629
SWODY1
SPC AC 221627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones over North
America, a more broad cyclone centered over the Great
Lakes/southeastern Ontario and another more compact cyclone farther
west just off the central/southern CA Coast. Surface analysis
reveals a pair of lows associated with the Great Lakes cyclone: an
occluded low beneath the primary cyclone over Lake Huron and another triple-point low farther east over the coast of southern ME.
Continued northeastward progression of this system, including the
coastal ME surface low, will continue to push the warm sector
farther offshore, limiting any severe potential. Lightning is still
possible within the warm-air advection showers throughout the
afternoon, with the highest coverage across Downeast ME. Isolated
lightning is also still possible across New England where continued
forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support
deeper updrafts. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible over
and in close proximity to the Lower Great Lakes, where warm lake
temperatures locally steepen the low-level lapse rates.

Farther west, the cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is
expected to progress eastward across central CA and far southern NV
during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
this cyclone from central CA into the Great Basin and AZ. Increasing
low to mid-level moisture and decreasing mid-level temperatures
downstream of this cyclone will support continued thunderstorms
downstream into the Four Corners and western NM.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...20Z Update...
The primary change made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim thunderstorm probabilities across portions of the Lower Colorado
River Basin and the Northeast, where the progression of upper
troughs are shunting scant buoyancy northeastward, away from the
aforementioned regions, reducing thunderstorm potential. Otherwise,
the previous forecast remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones over North
America, a more broad cyclone centered over the Great
Lakes/southeastern Ontario and another more compact cyclone farther
west just off the central/southern CA Coast. Surface analysis
reveals a pair of lows associated with the Great Lakes cyclone: an
occluded low beneath the primary cyclone over Lake Huron and another triple-point low farther east over the coast of southern ME.
Continued northeastward progression of this system, including the
coastal ME surface low, will continue to push the warm sector
farther offshore, limiting any severe potential. Lightning is still
possible within the warm-air advection showers throughout the
afternoon, with the highest coverage across Downeast ME. Isolated
lightning is also still possible across New England where continued
forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support
deeper updrafts. Isolated lightning flashes are also possible over
and in close proximity to the Lower Great Lakes, where warm lake
temperatures locally steepen the low-level lapse rates.

Farther west, the cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is
expected to progress eastward across central CA and far southern NV
during the period. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
this cyclone from central CA into the Great Basin and AZ. Increasing
low to mid-level moisture and decreasing mid-level temperatures
downstream of this cyclone will support continued thunderstorms
downstream into the Four Corners and western NM.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 230031
SWODY1
SPC AC 230029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, primarily across portions of
the southwestern U.S., this evening.

...01z Update...

Water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low advancing inland across
southern CA. This feature will move into northwestern AZ by 23/12z
as 500mb speed max translates across the lower CO River Valley into
eastern AZ late tonight. Along/north of this jet, cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates are proving favorable for
isolated thunderstorms. While nocturnal cooling should lead to
weaker updrafts and less lightning by late evening, a few flashes
may continue to accompany elevated convection that forms in response
to moistening midlevels ahead of the trough.

..Darrow.. 10/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 230541
SWODY1
SPC AC 230539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...

Southern CA upper low is advancing east in line with latest model
guidance. Early morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
circulation approaching the lower CO River Valley. This feature is
forecast to progress into the southern Rockies by 24/00z, and shift
slowly east during the overnight hours. As the trough moves east,
LLJ will begin to increase across the southern Great Plains,
especially during the evening when speeds should exceed 40kt across
west TX into the TX Panhandle. While lee cyclogenesis is not
expected to be particularly focused/intense, low-level warm
advection will focus across the southern Plains and an extended
convective event is expected, especially during the latter half of
the period extending into the day2 period.

Low-level trajectories are becoming a bit more favorable for Gulf
moisture to advance across south TX into the High Plains. 70s dew
points are currently noted across deep South TX while 60F dew points
are noted as far north as Kimble Count. PW values will increase
markedly over the next 24-36hr across TX into OK and this will
contribute to destabilization ahead of the approaching trough.
Models suggest a southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend
from the TX South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon.
Strongest boundary-layer heating will be just south of this wind
shift and modest 0-3km lapse rates should aid buoyancy by peak
heating as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. This boundary
will prove instrumental in convective development as midlevel flow
begins to increase ahead of the trough. Forecast soundings suggest
supercells are possible and hail is likely the primary concern.
However, as moisture increases near the boundary conditions may
become a bit more favorable for a tornado or two. Severe risk will
likely linger well into the overnight hours as the primary corridor
of deep convection will not move appreciably across the southern
Plains.

Upstream, isolated robust convection should develop within
cool/steep lapse rate environment across the southern Rockies. This
activity should be diurnally driven and some risk for marginally
severe hail/wind is possible.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 10/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 231225
SWODY1
SPC AC 231223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near the
NV/UT/AZ border and model guidance shows this feature moving east
into southern CO by late tonight. Southerly low-level flow is
forecast to gradually increase through the evening and aid in
moisture advecting northward from south-central TX (12.5 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio via the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob) into
northwest TX and southern OK. Models continue to show only weak lee cyclogenesis, but the pronounced increase of a LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection will aid in storm development and focus
severe potential late this afternoon but especially into the
evening/overnight.

A southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend from the TX
South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon. The stronger
heating and moisture increase will likely set up along and south of
the boundary. The latest forecast soundings suggest supercells
capable of a threat for large hail will be the primary risk from the
TX South Plains northeast into southwest OK during the evening.
Some enlargement of the hodograph and moistening low levels could
yield an isolated risk for a tornado, in addition to localized
severe gusts with the stronger storms. An increase in convective
coverage is expected through the late evening as the LLJ and
associated warm advection promote clustering and messy storm modes
with time, coincident with a waning overall severe threat into the
overnight.

Farther west, diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer
proximity to the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies.
An isolated risk for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with
this activity before subsiding during the evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)