ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west, cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.

...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.

While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)