ACUS02 KWNS 270639
SWODY2
SPC AC 270637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.

Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.

The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 070702
SWODY2
SPC AC 070700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS Valley...

A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.

With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.

Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 200612
SWODY2
SPC AC 200610

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday.
An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough
will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on
Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified
Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a
southward sagging cold front. This will support minor
destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into
LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be
sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday
afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 240715
SWODY2
SPC AC 240713

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)