861
FXUS64 KMRX 261120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today through the weekend. Near
record temperatures possible in Chattanooga.

- Low rain chances today and tonight in northern sections, with better
chances Sunday night and Monday with a strong cold front.

- Strong gusty winds expected across higher elevations Sunday
night and Monday.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week.&&

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025


Light showers are currently noted on radar just outside of our area
in southern WV and SW VA. These showers are associated with a back
door cold front and weak isentropic lift. Moisture is quite shallow
and remains so through today and tonight, so as the front remains
nearly stationary near our northern counties during that time, some
light on/off showers will be possible in parts of SW VA and NE TN.

A ridge will be building over the southern half of the United States
today and through the rest of the weekend. This ridge will produce
unusual warmth for late December with highs around 20 degrees above
normal. Near Record highs are possible across the Chattanooga area
Saturday and Sunday.

An upper trough will cross the Great Lakes early next week. A strong
300mb jet of 160-165 kts digs into the Ohio valley and central
Appalachians on the southern side of this trough, producing a good
deal of jet dynamics and frontogenetic forcing, producing a strong
cold front that crosses the area late Sunday night and Monday
morning. Precip in the form of rain showers will peak Monday morning
with the frontal passage, followed by strong cold advection through
the day that will lead to falling temperatures during the daylight
hours. Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds especially
for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need for the
higher elevations ahead and and near the time of the frontal passage.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Will mainly see a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions all sites during the
period, although the exact details are still low confidence.
Winds will increase from the southwest to around 10 kts with some
higher gusts especially TYS during the day before decreasing
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 59 75 60 / 10 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 59 72 57 / 20 20 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 68 57 71 56 / 20 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 55 67 50 / 40 50 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

344
FXUS64 KMRX 262358
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend. Near record
temperatures possible in Chattanooga.

- Low rain chances today and tonight in northern sections, with better
chances Sunday night and Monday with a strong cold front.

- Strong gusty winds expected across higher elevations and
foothills Sunday night and Monday.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Guidance and most of the CAMs have widespread light showers in
East and Middle Tennessee but nothing has developed on radar so it
appears to be overdone. HRRR seems to be handling it best with
light showers this evening mainly north of I-40. I reduced the
POPs some especially before midnight. The surface front is
currently well upstream in Western Kentucky. A minor shortwave is
expected to move through the pattern this evening and I still
think we may get some light showers mainly north of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Widespread cloud cover and light rain showers or sprinkles
continue this afternoon across the region ahead of a subtle
shortwave. This is resulting in southwest low- level flow near
the surface within broad upper-level W-NW flow. This warm, moist
boundary layer airmass and weak isentropic lift across the region
will keep us cloudy through the evening and overnight hours.
Precipitation chances remain low, and what precipitation does
occur, will be very light rain of a trace to a few hundredths of
an inch.

This shortwave moves east of the region on Saturday with shortwave
ridging aloft and at the surface. Dry conditions are expected with
continued much above normal, warm conditions. Near record high
temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday with the
anomalous ridging across the area.

By Sunday afternoon, a strong shortwave will amplify longwave
troughing across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a strong
surface low pressure system moving northeast across the Great
Lakes. A trailing cold front will move southeastward and move
across the forecast area on Monday. Ahead of this system, strong
winds are expected across the higher elevations and foothills. The
850mb LLJ will be SW at 50 to 60 kt, but with a weaker pressure
gradient across the mountains, mountain wave winds are not
currently forecast to be significant. However, strong gradient
winds are still expected across the region and the higher
elevations where a wind advisory or high wind watch may be needed
in future updates for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Breezy conditions are expected area-wide.

Precipitation totals have been trending down with this system as
the primary upper jet dynamics continue to shift north towards the
Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS. Most of our forcing for lift will
be directly along the cold front with a relatively narrow band of
rainfall expected. Behind the cold front, NW flow will result in
some orographic precipitation and NW flow snowfall across the
higher elevations of the mountains. Snow accumulation across the
higher terrain is forecast to be light and limited.

High pressure and much colder air arrives next week with near
normal and below normal temperatures expected. Temperatures will
be back to what we normally see in late December and early January
with this cold, dry airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Winds are starting to subside. CIGs are already starting to lower
to MVFR. Rain showers are expected to develop over the next few
hours mainly near TRI. CIGs will be mostly MVFR tonight through
mid morning. CHA may see some patchy fog briefly around or
shortly after sunrise. VFR will return by mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 74 60 73 / 10 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 71 55 73 / 20 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 56 69 55 70 / 10 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 66 47 67 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

298
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today and Sunday with near record
temperatures possible at Chattanooga.

- Widespread rain will accompany a strong cold front late Sunday
night and Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday night and Monday
especially across the higher elevations.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
early next week. Wind chills near zero are expected across the
higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Currently, weak isentropic lift is producing isolated sprinkles or
light showers across east Kentucky and southwest Virginia. This
activity will diminish by daybreak. REFS shows some higher
probabilities of fog mainly across the Plateau, western sections
of the Tennessee valley and higher elevations.

Main weather story will remain broad upper ridge across the southern
half of the United States with anomaly high heights producing
unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs and Lows around 20-25 degrees
above normal.

For today, HREF and deterministic show a drier airmass moving
northwest from the Carolinas into the region allowing for more
sunshine. The increase in daytime heating will allow for warmer
temperatures with highs in the 70s most locations. Near record highs
are expected at Chattanooga.

For tonight, boundary layer moisture returns with sky cover becoming
mostly cloudy but remaining dry.

For Sunday, increasing isentropic lift and deeper moisture return
may produce widely scattered showers. A digging upper trough over
the mid-section of the nation will begin to tighten the pressure
gradients across the Tennessee valley with brisk southwest winds of
10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper trough will dig into the
eastern United States with a strong 300mb jet of 150-155 kts over
the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. The jet dynamics will
produce a good deal of jet dynamics and frontogenetic forcing as the
strong front quickly crosses the area from 3 am to 7 am Monday.

Widespread rain showers will accompany the frontal passage followed
by strong cold advection through the day that will lead to falling temperatures during the daylight hours. Due to timing of the front
made some modifications to NBM temperature curve lowering quickly
into the 30s and 40s.

LREF shows most locations only receiving 0.20 inch of precipitation
during the event.

Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds area-wide but
especially for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need
for the higher elevations ahead and and near the time of the frontal
passage. However, LREF shows winds elsewhere likely gusting over 30-
35 mph during the frontal passage.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Still some MVFR cigs around early, but will trend to VFR
conditions for the bulk of the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 61 74 44 / 0 10 10 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 73 42 / 0 10 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 71 56 71 40 / 0 0 20 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 48 67 43 / 0 0 10 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

662
FXUS64 KMRX 272340
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Unseasonably warm weather today and Sunday with record high
temperatures possible at Chattanooga.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations Sunday night.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and highs in
the 30s on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Aloft, a large high pressure ridge is located over FL and the
eastern Gulf region today, providing midlevel subsidence over the
Southeast. In the low levels, a surface high over NY/PA is building
southward, bringing low level drying to the southern Appalachians
and East TN. Morning clouds and fog have mostly lifted, leaving
mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures that will peak in the
70s for most locations. Near record highs are expected at
Chattanooga. Tonight, we should see some increasing boundary layer
moisture and isentropic lift, with sky cover becoming mostly cloudy
but remaining too shallow for any precip.

On Sunday, a digging upper trough and surface cold front over the
northern and central MS Valley will begin to tighten the pressure
gradients across the Tennessee Valley, with southwest winds of 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Warm temperatures will continue in this
pattern, with Chattanooga likely to break the record high of 73,
especially if the expected morning cloud cover can adequately
lift/scatter.

On Sunday night and Monday, an upper trough will dig into the
eastern United States with a strong 300 mb jet over the Ohio valley
and central Appalachians. The jet dynamics will produce a good deal
of QG and frontogenetic forcing as the strong front quickly crosses
the area between 3 am to 7 am Monday. The main impacts will be the
strong gradient winds ahead of and along the frontal passage,
especially in the mountains where gusts near 50 mph will be
possible. It's not a mountain wave setup, given the SW direction, so
it looks more like a Wind Advisory scenario. Outside of the
mountains, gusts are likely to be in the 25-35 mph range.

Widespread rain showers will accompany the frontal passage followed
by strong cold advection through Monday, causing falling
temperatures during the daylight hours. There is not much of a
window for snowfall as dry air aloft quickly builds in to end any
precip chances before temperatures get cold enough. Can't rule out
some trace snow amounts in the higher elevations of the northern
Plateau, SW VA, and East TN mountains.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday,
but with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal as a
longwave trough persists off the Atlantic coast.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

CIGs will lower to MVFR late tonight or early morning. VFR
conditions will return by late morning. Southwesterly winds will
increase tomorrow by late morning or early afternoon, especially
at TYS and CHA. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible at TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 74 46 50 / 0 10 90 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 73 45 48 / 0 10 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 57 71 42 46 / 0 10 90 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 69 47 50 / 0 10 70 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

773
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Another warm day Sunday with possible record highs being broken
again

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations Sunday night.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Currently temperatures are remaining warm for a late December
night with low level winds remaining out of the south/southwest helping to bring
up warm air from the Gulf. This will only strengthen as we head into
the daylight hours Sunday with an incoming strong cold front making
it's way towards our region. Ahead of the front (expected to move
through early Monday morning) the tightening pressure gradient will
help keep warm temperatures in the region Sunday along with gusty
winds area-wide Sunday into Monday. High temperatures Sunday are
expected to be near records with highs in the upper 60's to lower
70's. Most likely climate site to break the daily high temperature
record will once again be Chattanooga, who broke the December 27
record earlier this evening, with their 73 degree record high for
the 28th in jeopardy.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

Besides the warm spell the other very noticeable weather impact will
be the gusty winds area-wide Sunday night and into Monday. Expect to
see winds ramping up between sunset and midnight Sunday night with
peak intensity coming during the overnight hours. Probabilistic
guidance is showing that most places in the central and southern
valley could see wind gusts in the 30-35mph range overnight, with
lower wind speeds expected in northeast TN and southwest VA. In the
higher elevations these winds will be even stronger with gusts over
40 mph looking to be common once you get above 2,500 feet in
elevation. With models in good agreement on the timing and in fairly
decent agreement on the strength of the gusts will issue a Wind
Advisory for the eastern Tennessee Mountains Sunday night into
Monday.

Once the front passes through the brief appearance of summer will
quickly end as winter asserts it's dominance again. Wind chills may
drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night with
single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass will settle
into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.

Of lesser impacts will be the rain and possibly light snow along the
front with most places in the valley staying warm enough that
precipitation along the front should only produce a tenth to a
quarter inch of light rain Monday. In the higher elevations Monday
we could see some flurries, and possibly some accumulations in the
shaded areas, but these seems unlikely as the recent temperatures
would likely melt any snow on contact with the surface.

A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday,
but with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal as a
longwave trough persists off the Atlantic coast. Fairly quiet
weather accompanies this slow warm up with the next best chance for precipitation likely coming over the weekend with a possible
shortwave traversing through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Some patches of MVFR cigs are still around, and may see at least
some brief MVFR conditions at the terminals early in the period
especially at CHA. Winds will become gusty from the south and
southwest this afternoon into tonight, especially at TYS. Showers
will move in late in the period with at least some brief MVFR
conditions along with an increase in the gusty winds, and CHA will
see a wind shift to NW near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 39 49 23 / 10 90 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 37 47 23 / 10 90 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 71 35 45 22 / 10 90 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 37 49 20 / 0 80 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

649
FXUS64 KMRX 282312 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Very warm this afternoon with possible record highs being
broken again.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area tonight and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide this afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations tonight. Either
Wind Advisories or a Special Weather Statement is in effect.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

One more day of well above average temperatures before a big
pattern change beginning tonight. Low 70s are currently being
reported across parts of the valley this afternoon already. Will
include climate stats below.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

Southerly to southwesterly winds are also occurring. Expect these
to increase throughout the day and overnight tonight. A low center
currently over Iowa and Illinois, will deepen through the day as
it tracks towards the Great Lakes. A cold front will then develop
and trail it to the southwest. Damming to the east under high
pressure will kick-start the winds over the Southern Appalachians
likely earlier than anywhere else because of increasing pressure
gradient. This will not be a true mountain wave set-up for the
Southern Appalachians given the flow direction with the frontal
passage, but there will still be gusts to near 50 mph, as
indicated by the Wind Advisory in place there. Wind Advisories
were also added for the plateau and southwest Virginia counties.
Upon looking at the latest guidance from HREF, RRFS, and others,
winds appear they will generally remain below advisory level for
the rest of the forecast area - valley and SW NC. A Special
Weather Statement through Monday morning was issued there
mentioning gusts up to 35 mph, with possible pockets of near 40
mph. After 7 am or so, winds will slowly decrease from west to
east, but will hang on for the most part for the eastern higher
terrain. The primary direction following the front will be from
the west.

The warmest temperatures tomorrow will likely occur near midnight
for the forecast area, as the front makes its mark during the
overnight hours. A line of showers will accompany the front, but
the most we can expect are gusts translated down to the surface
from aloft with any gusty showers. The strongest of any storms or
severe weather threat, will remain close to the low's center south
of Michigan. It appears any influence of return-
flow/northwesterly flow behind the low will remain to our north.

With lows in the 20s and teens for the higher terrain forecast
Tuesday morning and some winds persisting for the higher terrain
as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

Weather turns dry later tomorrow through Wednesday. High temperatures
will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into Wednesday. A
weak system will approach from the north Thursday into Friday,
bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances across
the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend,
precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls
to our south. Where this sets up may determine how much
precipitation we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure
use some beneficial rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

A cold front with a line of showers is expected to cross the area
overnight, mainly between 07-10Z. Ahead of the front, surface SW
winds will continue to be gusty, mainly 20-30 kt. With the passage
of the front, some showers may lowe vis/cigs to MVFR at times, and
winds will shift to the W and gust 25-35 kt. Rapid clearing will
follow the front, with all sites going SKC or SCT around 13-16Z.
Gusty west winds will continue through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 49 24 41 / 90 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 46 22 37 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 44 22 37 / 100 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 48 20 33 / 80 30 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-
Sequatchie.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

304
FXUS64 KMRX 291130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Showers and a strong cold front crossing the area tonight through
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds continue across the region overnight across the
valley and into the afternoon in the higher elevations.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Extended the wind advisory to northeast Tennessee and central
Tennessee valley and extended until 4 pm. Given the latest
observations and REFS showing winds remaining windy through much
of the day decided to make the changes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Currently a strong cold front charging through the region brining
with it a quick round of showers and enhanced wind gusts right along
the front edge. Winds have already been gusty this evening and while
this line of showers is expected to weaken as it moves through
Middle Tennessee it still could cause some enhancement of the lower atmospheric winds diving towards the surface. There is no lightning
in this line, but we could definitely see some additional outdoor
furniture blown around. QPF amounts still are expected to be light
with the line also expected to waken

Still have a Wind Advisory in effect overnight for the
Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the eastern Tennessee mountains
with the common denominator being these counties have some of the
higher elevation in the region and are reporting the highest wind
gusts. All surface observations are indicating that the Wind
Advisory is working out well, with no current plans to upgrade to a
High Wind Warning.

Breezy conditions will continue even after sunrise with gusts slowly
starting to come down throughout the day. Expect winds to back off
below advisory criteria in the plateau and southwest Virginia in the
late morning hours, but continue in the eastern Tennessee Mountains
until closer to sunset.

Also of note will be the much colder temperatures behind the front,
with lows in the morning likely dropping into the 30's, and below
freezing at elevations above 2,000 feet. Coldest temperatures of the
week continue for a few days as chilly air funnels in from the
north/northwest through the middle of the week. With lows in the 20s
and teens for the higher terrain forecast and some winds persisting
for the higher terrain as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

High temperatures will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into
Wednesday. A weak system will approach from the north Thursday into
Friday, bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances
across the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend,
precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls to
our south. Where this sets up may determine how much precipitation
we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure use some beneficial
rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

A band of showers moving across the TAF sites will end by around
14Z. VFR to marginal MVFR will improve to all VFR by mid-morning
with drier air clearing the sky cover today. Main concern will
remain windy conditions especially at TRI and TYS. west to
northwest of 15 to 25kts with gusts near 30kts.

Winds will subside by late afternoon and early evening. REFS shows
broken ceiling around 4kft at TRI again by around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 24 40 24 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 22 37 23 / 50 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 42 22 37 22 / 50 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 19 33 20 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-Morgan-North
Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-
Washington TN.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

514
FXUS64 KMRX 292338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Well below normal temperatures for the next 36 hours.

- Wind chills near zero across the higher elevations of the east TN
mountains tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Based on observational trends, will go ahead and clear some areas
from the Wind Advisory early. Will go ahead and remove the central
east TN valley and Cumberland Plateau. Will keep northeast TN,
southwest VA, and the east TN mountains going through the original
expiration times of 4 PM and 7 PM.

Though the cold front has passed, breezy conditions will remain
through the night as the pressure gradient remains tight. However,
the strongest winds should subside by this evening. Overnight lows
will be around 10 degrees below normal with temps in the mid to
upper teens across northern areas and lower 20s from Knoxville and
southward. With some winds remaining through the night, wind chills
will be in the teens for most valley locations and near 0 across the
east TN mountains.

Below normal temps continue on Tuesday with highs in the mid to
upper 30s for most areas, but with plenty of sunshine! Winds will
still be a little breezy tomorrow with gusts from 15 to 20 mph. On
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, portions of southwest VA
could see some light snow showers. Little to no accumulation is
expected at this time.

We then slowly moderate in temperatures through the end of the week
with highs back in the mid 50s by Friday. Friday is also when our
next chance of precip arrives, as a shortwave moves across the area.
Models in fair agreement on timing with precip moving in Friday
evening and gone by Saturday afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions
then continue into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions will continue at TYS and CHA. MVFR CIGs will
move in over the next few hours at TRI but will likely improve to
VFR by sunrise. Winds are already starting to subside across the
region but TRI will continue to have some low end gusts up to 20
knots this evening and tomorrow during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 40 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 37 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 21 37 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 33 21 41 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

229
FXUS64 KMRX 301130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Cold and dry today. Low afternoon relative humidity values today
and Wednesday.

- Wind chills near zero across the higher elevations of the east TN
mountains this morning. Wind chills in the teens for the Tennessee
Valley this morning.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Reports of light coating of snow across area roadways across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Light snow showers or
flurries will continue until mid-morning. Shallow moisture at
850mb combined with cold air squeezing out light snow. Have issued
a SPS for potential slippery conditions during the morning rush
hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Currently, clouds have spread across much of the region with a few
light flurries across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee.
REFS/HREF show the clouds eroding quickly by mid to late morning.
Main concern today and Wednesday will be the low dewpoints and
afternoon relative humidity values.

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Plains. Temps will
be cold this morning with lows in the 20s in the Tennessee Valley
and in the teens in the higher elevations. Winds are much lighter
than earlier today but will be steady enough to bring wind chills in
the teens this morning for the Tennessee Valley and single digits or
near zero in the higher elevations. Temps will be below normal today
with highs in the 30s in the Tennessee Valley. A warming trend will
begin Wednesday with highs getting back into the 40s. By Friday,
highs will be back in the 50s for the Tennessee Valley.

Dry weather will continue through Friday morning with the exception
of some light, brief snow possible in Southwest Virginia Wednesday
night as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Little to no
accumulation is expected in our Virginia counties since they are on
the edge of this system. Snow chances are much better in West
Virginia.

By Friday, upper level flow becomes more zonal. At the surface, a
low moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast
Friday night. The warm front will likely be near or just south of
the region. It looks like temps will remain warm enough even Friday
night for an all rain event. The best chance for a soaking rain will
be along and south of I-40. This looks like a fast moving system
and the highest rain chances are Friday evening and overnight.

The weekend looks mostly dry and mild with rain chances trending
down Saturday morning. Highs will be in the 50s for the Tennessee
Valley this weekend which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A relatively shallow MVFR ceiling around 3kft is across the TAF
sites. TRI has the deepest layer around 850mb which is producing
some light snow showers or flurries. REFS/HREF and deterministic
models show the shallow moisture eroding by mid to late morning
with the help of downslope northwest winds into the valley. This
will allow flight conditons to become VFR this morning.

For late today mid and high level clouds will move into the
region. Winds will remain west to northwest at 5 to 15 knots most
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 23 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 20 41 29 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

451
FXUS64 KMRX 302344
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Snow showers increasingly likely for southwest VA and northeast TN
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light accumulations probable.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday, mainly south
of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Another cold night in store with overnight lows in the low to mid
20s for most areas. If it weren't for the light winds and high
clouds moving in, we would see even colder temps.

A warming trend begins tomorrow with highs getting back into the
40s. A quick around round of light snow showers looks
increasingly more likely across southwest VA and extreme northeast
TN late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. HREF probs show
moderate probabilities to see up to 0.5 inches across portions of
Wise, Russell, and Washington County VA, and perhaps even Johnson
and Carter County TN. Minor travel impacts are possible during the
Thursday morning commute. Snow showers should come to an end by
early to mid afternoon.

Models have trended further south with the Friday/Saturday system.
The more likely areas to now see rainfall will be across our
southern areas, especially the closer you get to the TN/AL/GA state
lines and as well as southwest NC. Areas north of I-40 may end up
being completely dry. The current QPF forecast for our southern
areas is around 0.5 inches, around 0.1 inches for Knoxville, and
none for northeast TN and southwest VA.

The weekend and into next week continues to looks mostly dry along
with mild temperatures. Any lingering rain from Friday night should
exit by late Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR overnight with relatively clear skies and winds below 10 KT.
SWly winds with gusts up to near 20 KT possible at TYS and TRI
Wednesday during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 50 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 46 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 23 46 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 41 29 43 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

892
FXUS64 KMRX 311128
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
628 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with light snowfall in
portions of southwest Virginia late tonight.

- A warming trend will continue with another system bringing
chances for light rain on Friday, especially in southern
portions of the area.

- Dry and seasonally milder conditions will continue this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Currently, broad troughing is centered to our north and east with
ridging over the Rockies. This setup will continue the norhwesterly
flow pattern over the region with high pressure to our south and
west. For the day on Wednesday, dry and cool conditions will persist
with high pressure gradually receding to the south. At the same
time, a weak shortwave will dive down from the Great Lakes with a
jet streak of over 110 kts approaching from the west. This will put
the region in the left-exit region of the jet, leading to some lift.
A plume of moisture is also forecast to dive down into northwestern
portions of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, sufficient for
light precipitation in southwest Virginia. With temperatures below
freezing, snowfall is expected with QPF totals approaching a tenth
of an inch in higher elevation places. As such, light accumulations
are forecast in those areas.

On Thursday, moisture will exit the region with troughing lifting
and a more zonal flow pattern aloft. By Friday, a weak system is
expected to eject out of the Rockies and track through the southern
Plains and then into the Deep South. With this continually southward
shifting track, better PoPs will be focused in southern portions of
the area. Based on the latest guidance, temperatures are forecast to
be above freezing at or below 850mb, keeping precipitation as all
rain. With this southern track, rainfall totals will be limited in
our area, compared to places in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
By Saturday, this system will have tracked off to our east with
broad ridging and a return of high pressure leading to warmer and
drier conditions. This same pattern will persist Sunday into early
next week with varying indications of a front approaching by
Tuesday. At this time, confidence is limited on timing and how much
moisture will be present, but a return of low-end rain chances is
the only current expectation, if anything.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Currently, a cloud deck around 5kft at TRI and TYS. The clearing
line is almost at TYS. Expect this area of clouds to erode early
this morning. VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites today.

For this afternoon and evening, mid and high level clouds will
move across the area with a return of 5kft ceilings at TRI after
06z.

Winds will be westerly from 5 to 15 knots much of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 29 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 47 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 29 43 28 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

655
FXUS64 KMRX 311724
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1224 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Quick system brings some light snowfall, mainly flurries, in
portions of southwest Virginia late tonight.

- A warming trend will continue late week with another system
bringing chances for light rain Friday night through Saturday.
Highest probabilities for precipitation will be across southern
counties.

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions will continue this weekend
into early next week as we remain between upper ridging across
the Great Plains and troughing across the Northeast US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

We remain within an area of upper-level northwest flow aloft with
troughing and colder than normal conditions across the Northeast
CONUS and ridging and above normal conditions across the Great
Plains. A quick upper-level shortwave will dive southeastward
across the Great Lakes tonight with a weak surface cold front
moving south across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians by
12z Thursday. It will begin to stall out as it reaches our area,
but weak forcing will result in some additional clouds tonight.
Light precipitation is possible across southwest Virginia between
09z and 15z Thursday, but amounts appear to be around a trace to
0.02 inches. This corresponds to very light snow on the order of
flurries to a dusting. No impacts are expected.

Shortwave ridging will increase heights across the area on Friday
with southwest flow aloft resulting in isentropic lift and
increasing mid and upper level clouds. A southern stream shortwave
will bring a weak surface low across the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Mid-South region with isentropic stratiform precipitation
gradually spreading into the area Friday night and Saturday. A few
sprinkles will be possible on Friday afternoon across southern
areas, but dry air will likely limit precipitation reaching the
surface early on.

This system will produce light rain across the region but limited
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch for most locations with locally higher
amounts near 0.75 to 1 inch across our southern counties. This
low pressure system will move east of the region on Saturday
evening with cooler, near normal air briefly returning on Sunday.
As a strong storm system amplifies longwave troughing across the
Western CONUS, the ridge axis will shift eastward and amplify
across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians early next
week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures likely
through the middle of next week. Models are in decent agreement
with a cold front approaching the area next Wednesday, but
synoptic support for lift and precipitation appears to be
primarily far north of our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions will continue with breezy WSW winds through the
afternoon today, especially at TYS and TRI. Lower clouds expected
late tonight near TRI with cigs around 3-4k ft as some light
showers and snow flurries will be in the vicinity of the terminal
around 12z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 57 35 57 / 0 0 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 51 33 55 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 29 50 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 44 29 51 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...JB


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

877
FXUS64 KMRX 011123
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- After morning light snow in southwest Virginia, clearing and
seasonal temperatures are expected.

- A weak system will bring rain to the region Friday into
Saturday, with greatest rain totals near 1 inch in southern
portions of the area.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern with
troughing well off to the northeast and ridging ejecting out of the
Rockies. A 110 to 120 kt jet streak is approaching from the west
with a plume of moisture progressing from the Great Lakes. This
pattern has continued chances for flurries/light snow through the
morning in southwest Virginia, which is already being observed to
our north. This moisture will gradually lift out of the area on
New Year's Day, leading to clearing and a continuation of the
recent warming trend. By Friday, troughing will lift even further
way from the area with ridging to our west expanding and
increasing height rises. Increasing warming will occur with
temperatures rising above normal. A weak system will also eject
out of the southern Plains and track just to our south. This will
keep the better focus for rain in southern portions of the area
Friday into Saturday, which does need rainfall as D2/Severe
Drought has been declared for some.

By Sunday, this system will be well to the east of our area with
broad ridging and high pressure keeping the region dry. CAA behind
this system will keep temperatures moderated close to normal. By
early next week, however, even more notable height rises are
expected, which will push temperatures above normal. By Wednesday,
another system is expected to track far to our north with its
associated front approaching the region. This will bring another
chance for rain with even milder temperatures ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Cigs will likely dip to MVFR levels at times early in the period
at TRI, and MVFR cigs may at least briefly affect TYS as well but
the probability there looks to be below 30% at this time so just
a scattered layer will be included at TYS for now. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. Winds will generally be less than 10kts
from the west and southwest. Winds at 2kft will increase late in
the period, and it looks borderline for LLWS mainly TRI for a
period overnight. Will not include LLWS yet, but this will bear
watching as we get closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 37 58 47 / 0 0 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 36 56 44 / 0 0 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 51 34 54 42 / 0 0 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 30 51 40 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

790
FXUS64 KMRX 011730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1230 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- A weak system passing south of our area will bring rain Friday
night and Saturday morning.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

A NW flow pattern with a trough off the Atlantic coastline will
transition to a more zonal flow tonight and Friday. Warm advection
at 850 mb will develop and bring warmer temperatures tonight and
tomorrow, with Friday's highs reaching well into the 50s. Cloud
cover will be increasing tomorrow with the warm advection pattern
and midlevel isentropic lift ahead of a southern stream shortwave
trough. By Friday evening the top-down moistening of the column
should allow for light rain to reach the ground, starting in our SW
corner and spreading up the TN Valley through the night. The latest
NBM QPF amounts have come in lighter than previous runs, with a half
to 3/4 inch in southern sections to a tenth to 1/4 inch in northern
sections. The strongest forcing with this system stay in AL/GA,
and any chance of thunderstorms should stay to our south. Precip
will be tapering off through the day on Saturday, with decreasing
clouds Saturday night.

By Sunday, broad ridging will develop over the Plains, with surface
high pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes region. As
the ridge aloft builds eastward and the surface high shifts to New
England, temperatures will rise above normal through the early part
of the week, reaching into the 60s by Tuesday. On Wednesday, a weak
trough is expected to track far to our north and bring a chance for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

MVFR cigs at TRI show signs of lifting and scattering in satellite
imagery, so the TAF there will return to predominant VFR conditions
by 19Z. Mostly clear and calm conditions are expected at all sites
overnight, with high clouds starting to spread into the area during
the day tomorrow. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 59 47 56 / 0 30 90 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 57 44 51 / 0 10 80 60
Oak Ridge, TN 35 55 43 51 / 0 10 70 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 52 39 49 / 0 0 50 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

677
FXUS64 KMRX 021137
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

- A weak system passing south of our area will bring rain Friday
night and Saturday morning. Drier conditions return late
Saturday through at least the early portions of next week.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Upper level clouds will continue to increase into the morning as
a trough lifts northeast due to a weak impulse propagating across
the central CONUS. A surface low pressure system will glide
eastwards just to our south this evening into the first half of
Saturday. This will bring increasing rain chances area-wide,
however, the greatest rainfall amounts between one-quarter to one-
half inch are expected along and south of Interstate 40. Rainfall
amounts will be light and generally less than one-quarter inch
for northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia.

Rain chances gradually diminish Saturday afternoon and into the
evening as the system quickly departs north and east. Seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions will cap off the weekend before
increasing upper-level heights promote a warming trend into the new
work week. Temperatures become well above normal by Tuesday when
high temps increase into the 60s for a majority of the forecast
area, continuing into the mid week.

Low chances (25% or less) of a very light rain exists with a
shortwave translating through mean flow to our north Wednesday. An
additional trough and potential development of a surface low is
possible for the latter half of the week and NBM hangs onto some
20-40% PoPs for this reason. The strength and a positioning of an
expected ridge over the southeastern US will play a critical role
in how these PoP chances evolve over the coming forecast
packages. Overall, still a fair amount of uncertainty this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Rain chances
are very low this afternoon. This evening after sunset, rain
showers will move into the region from the west. MVFR CIGs and vis
are likely shortly after the onset of rain. Late tonight IFR CIGs
will be possible especially near CHA. Patchy fog will be possible
closer to daybreak tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 47 57 36 / 30 90 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 44 54 35 / 20 80 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 55 43 55 32 / 10 70 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 40 50 33 / 0 50 60 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

374
FXUS64 KMRX 042319
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected this week. Temperatures
Warming climbing to around 20 degrees above normal.

- Best chance of rainfall will be late Thursday through Saturday
morning. Much needed rainfall is possible.

- Strong and gusty mountain wave winds are possible late Thursday
through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Key upper level feature for much of the week will be an upper ridge
across the United States especially the Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee valley. Unseasonably strong strong upper ridge/heights
will pull anomaly warm temperatures in the region with highs in the
60s for much of the area. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees
above normal.

A strong upper trough will move into the mid-section of the nation
by late week pulling Gulf moisture northward into the Tennessee
valley and southern Appalachians. Much needed rainfall is possible
for late Thursday through early Saturday.

Now for the details...

For tonight, a weak shear axis is fast westerly flow aloft will
increase high and mid-level clouds early this evening before
departing early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging east of the Appalachians will return
southerly flow into the Tennessee valley pulling unseasonably warm temperatures in the area under mostly clear sky.

For Tuesday and early Tuesday night, a fast moving northern stream
short-wave will move across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley.
Return of southerly winds aloft will allow for some moisture return
into the Tennessee valley. However, moisture will be shallow with
Gulf essentially closed off. Increasing cloud cover with sprinkles
or scattered light showers possible but LREF shows low probability
of measurable rainfall.

For Wednesday, cloud cover moves east with partly cloudy sky and
unseasonably warm temperatures.

For Thursday, main feature will be a southern stream short-wave and
jet dynamics lifting northeast into the tennessee and Ohio valleys.
Good pressure falls will increase the southerly flow from the Gulf
into the region with increasing clouds and isentropic lift. Shower
chances increase Thursday as well as chance of thunder over
southeast Tennessee due to elevated instability.

For Friday through Saturday morning, the upper level trough moves
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. LREF and
deterministic models show a strong 850mb jet of 50-60 knots. Strong
jet dynamic forcing and isentropic lift will produce likely chance
of showers and possibly thunderstorms southeast Tennessee and
Plateau. Much needed rainfall is possible especially for the D2
drought areas of southeast Tennessee.

Another aspect will be the potential mountain wave high wind event.
High wind watch may be necessary for the far east Tennessee
mountains and foothills.

Colder and more seasonal temperatures are expected for Sunday with
drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Expecting VFR conditions through the period at all sites along
with light winds. However, some guidance is suggesting MVFR/IFR
late tonight. Do not feel confident enough to include in TAFs
based on the drier air that moved in earlier today. Just be aware
a low end probability does exists for poor flight conditions late
in the night and closer to sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 64 47 65 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 63 44 65 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 34 61 45 63 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

762
FXUS64 KMRX 022309
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

- A weak system passing south of our area will bring rain
tonight through Saturday morning.

- Warming trend is expected into next week, with temperatures
climbing to around 20 degrees above normal by mid-week.

- Next best chance of rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

A weak shortwave will slide across to our south tonight into
Saturday morning. Areas south of I-40 will have the highest POPs,
especially the closer you get to the TN/GA/NC state line. Areas
along the I-40 corridor will only have moderate probabilities for some
light rain showers. Areas north of I-40 low probabilities and likely
dry for southwest VA. Even with the higher POPs down south, QPF
will be light and will average between 0.2 and 0.4 inches of
rainfall. Precip exits east Saturday morning but clouds linger
through much of the day. We should start to see some breaks in the
clouds during the afternoon hours though.

Ridging begins to build in from Sunday and onward, with temperatures
warming each day thereafter. Temps will climb to around 20
degrees above normal by midweek. Overnight lows during this time
period will be comparable to our normal day time highs for this
time of year, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Our next best chance of precip comes late in the week as the
pattern becomes more unsettled. Models are in very poor agreement
on pattern evolution and specifics with any one system. So while
event specific details aren't clear, the overall pattern is
conducive for increasing POPs Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Deteriorating aviation conditions are expected at CHA with IFR
expected late tonight into the early morning as rain moves in. At
TYS, reductions are expected as well, but a minimum of MVFR was
maintained. For TRI, showers in the vicinity are expected with SCT
just below 3,000 feet included. During the day on Saturday,
improvements are expected with light and variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 60 37 55 / 90 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 58 34 52 / 60 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 43 58 32 50 / 50 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 53 31 47 / 30 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

933
FXUS64 KMRX 031125
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

- A weak system passing south of our area will continue rain
chances through the AM hours. Rain will taper off late morning
and lead way to mostly dry conditions this afternoon into the
mid-week.

- Warming trend is expected into next week, with temperatures
climbing to around 20 degrees above normal by mid-week.

- Next best chance of rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Rain chances persist through AM hours as a system continues to
slide eastward across the southeastern CONUS. The best coverage
will generally remain along and south of I-40. Precipitation will
gradually taper off through the morning, leading way to a mostly
dry afternoon.

Upper-level troughing slowly lifts northeastward Saturday night
through Sunday. Increasing upper level heights associated with
ridging building across much of the central and eastern CONUS will
promote a warming trend into the new work week. Temperatures will
become well above normal by mid-week. High temperatures will
approach near 20 degrees above normal and overnight lows will be
more comparable to typical daytime highs.

Low rain chances(25% or less) return as an initial shortwave
traverses mean flow aloft overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.
However, the weak amplitude of the wave suggest any rain to be very
light and non-impactful if it does occur. During this time, upper
troughing will strengthen over the western CONUS and further
enhance WAA advection into the region.

This will promote a continued warming trend by a few degrees as we
head into the latter half of the week, though current forecast Ts
remain a few degrees shy of daily records. Daily rain chances
will increase late week as additional bouts of energy are
expected aloft. However, models are in poor agreement on the
pattern evolution and details such as the influence/strength of
the southeastern ridge are fuzzy this far out. Overall, an
extended period with warmer and mostly dry conditions until a more
favorable pattern for some precipitation returns late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Rain has moved out of the region. TRI may still see some drizzle
or sprinkles this morning. Conditions across the region are mostly
VFR from TYS northward. South of TYS conditions are mostly MVFR
with a mix of low CIGs and vis. VFR conditions will return by mid
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 36 55 35 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 33 52 33 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 59 31 51 32 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 30 48 30 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

673
FXUS64 KMRX 032344
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Clearing conditions tonight.

- Warming trend is expected Sunday and into next week, with
temperatures climbing to around 20 degrees above normal by mid-week.

- Next best chance of rain is on Thursday into Friday, gusty
mountain winds possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Clearing conditions are expected tonight as drier air builds in
behind a departing shortwave. On Sunday we begin are warming trend
as ridging begins to build in from the west. Temperatures will be
around 20 degrees above normal by Wednesday.

Thursday we see a pattern shift as a deep longwave trough moves into
the Western and Central U.S. Models still aren't handling the
evolution and specifics very well though. So for now, the same holds
true as yesterday, with increasing POPs in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe due to the unsettled pattern heading our way. Perhaps at
this point, the highest confidence with this setup is for gusty
winds across the east TN mountains. With the incoming trough from
the west, and the ridge to the east, the pressure gradient will
tighten leading up to the arrival of the trough. Models generally
show the 850mb jet increasing to around 50kts during this time out
of the southwest. So for now, gust mountain winds will likely be the
main impact with this system. There is also the potential for some
much needed rainfall across the area but amounts are highly
uncertain as it all depends on the evolution of this pattern. As it
stands, WPC QPF shows between 0.75 and 1.25 inches across the area
between Thursday and Saturday. Stay tuned for more details in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

A band of low to mid level clouds is currently exiting the region
to our south and east. Mostly clear skies and light winds are
then expected throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 56 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 53 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 31 52 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 49 31 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

951
FXUS64 KMRX 041129
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Warming trend is expected today into the coming week.
Temperatures will climb to around 20 degrees above normal by
mid-week.

- Next best chance of appreciable rain is Thursday into Friday.
Gusty mountain winds will also be possible during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Early this morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
the forecast area. Nighttime Microphysics and Night Fog products
depict areas of fog mainly across northern GA into the western
Carolinas. HREF probabilities of reduced visibility 1mi or less seem
to be handling things well so far, suggesting the best chance for
any patchy dense fog to be in Clay/Cherokee counties(30-40%).
Overall, a quiet overnight and morning for most.

Upper-level ridging will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS and promote a warming trend into the new work week.
Temperatures will become well above normal by mid-week. High
temperatures will approach near 20 degrees above normal and
overnight lows will be more comparable to typical daytime highs.

Low rain chances(25-35%) return as an initial shortwave traverses
mean flow aloft overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. However,
the weak amplitude of the wave suggest any rain to be very light
and non-impactful. During this time, upper troughing will
strengthen over the western CONUS and further enhance WAA
advection into the region.

This will promote a continued warming trend by a few degrees as we
head into the latter half of the week, though current forecast Ts
remain a few degrees shy of any daily records. The aforementioned
western trough will begin eastward progression Thursday into Friday,
bringing a period of unsettled weather at at the end of the week.
Because of a strengthening H85 jet near 50kts in latest model
solutions, and a sfc low pressure center tracking through the Ohio
Valley, gusty winds in the mountains and adjacent foothills is the
highest confidence impact this far out.

With recently expanded D1/D2 drought conditions across the
region, this will more than likely be a welcomed and needed rain
event. Latest ECMWF ensemble paints probabilities of 0.5" or
greater QPF between 70-90% for the Cumberland Plateau, central &
southern TN Valley, and southwest NC. Lesser probabilities near
50% for rain shadow regions in northeast TN and southwest VA.
Cooler and drier conditions follow the frontal passage for the
latter half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Conditions across the region are mostly VFR. Some patchy dense fog
is near TRI but should improve shortly after sunrise. High clouds
will move into the region this evening. Winds will be light and
northerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 38 63 47 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 34 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 34 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 31 58 37 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

781
FXUS64 KMRX 051134
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected this week. Temperatures
will climb to around 20 degrees above normal.

- Best chance of rainfall will be late Thursday through Saturday
morning. Much needed rainfall is possible.

- Strong and gusty mountain wave winds are also possible late
Thursday night through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Despite mostly clear skies and light winds, drier air filtering into
the region will hinder fog development through the morning.
Anomalous upper-level ridging is expected to build across much of
the central and eastern CONUS and promote a warming trend this week.
High temperatures will approach 20 degrees above normal and
overnight lows will be more comparable to typical daytime highs.

Low rain chances(25% or less) return as an initial shortwave
traverses mean flow aloft Tuesday afternoon and night. However, the
weak amplitude of the wave and minimal moisture availability suggest
any rain to be very light and non-impactful. During this time, upper
troughing will strengthen over the western CONUS and further enhance
WAA advection into the region.

This will promote a continued warming trend by a few degrees as we
head into the latter half of the week, though current forecast Ts
remain a few degrees shy of any daily records. The aforementioned
western trough will begin eastward progression Thursday night into
Friday, bringing a period of unsettled weather at at the end of the
week and into the start of the weekend. Still some uncertainty in
the exact timing this far out, but we will keep an eye on a few
potential impacts, mainly focused on the wind.

A strengthening H85 jet near 50-60kts and tightening pressure
gradient as a low pressure center tracks through the Ohio Valley
will promote periods of mountain wave winds late Thursday night
into Saturday morning. It will also be worth watching the
potential for stronger winds from the LLJ to be transported to the
surface as the main axis of frontogenetic forcing swings across
the eastern Tennessee Valley. The more likely timing for this
seems to be between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. If weak
elevated instability aligns with the strong dynamic forcing, some
embedded thunder cannot be ruled out in the southern valley
either.

Due to recently expanding D1/D2 drought conditions across the
region, this will more than likely be a welcomed and needed event
regarding rainfall. Latest ECMWF ensemble mean paints
probabilities of 0.5" or greater QPF between 70-90% for the
Cumberland Plateau, central & southern TN Valley, and southwest
NC. Lesser probabilities between 40-50% for rain shadow regions in
northeast TN and southwest VA. Drier and cooler conditions behind
the frontal passage to end the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR conditions will continue today. Southwesterly winds will be a
bit gusty near TYS this afternoon but otherwise light. High clouds
will move into the region this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely near
CHA late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 48 65 51 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 45 64 50 / 0 0 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 61 46 61 48 / 0 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 38 62 48 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

031
FXUS64 KMRX 052321
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected this week. Temperatures
will climb to 15-20 degrees above normal late in the week.

- Rain spreads into the area late Thursday through Saturday morning.

- Strong and gusty mountain wave winds are also possible late
Thursday night through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

A tranquil weather pattern will continue over the region for the
next few days, with no significant weather impacts. The main story
will be the abnormally warm temperatures, climbing to 15-20
degrees above normal late in the week. Sunshine today will give
way to cloudy skies tonight and tomorrow with the passage of a
low/midlevel shortwave trough. Moisture will be too shallow,
trapped beneath a strong 850 mb inversion, to produce any
measurable precip through tomorrow night. The slight chance PoPs
from the NBM were removed from the forecast grids.

A deep trough over the Rockies on Thursday will begin an eastward
progression Thursday night into Friday, bringing a period of
unsettled weather at at the end of the week and into the start of
the weekend. The model trends have been toward a slower system, and
the latest guidance has a chance of rain beginning Thursday evening
as the Gulf opens up and isentropic lift ensues. A strengthening H85
jet near 50-60kts and tightening pressure gradient develops Thursday
night as a low pressure center tracks through the Ohio Valley, which
will produce periods of mountain wave winds late Thursday night into
Saturday morning. It will also be worth watching the potential for
stronger winds from the LLJ to be transported to the surface as the
main axis of frontogenetic forcing swings across the eastern
Tennessee Valley Saturday morning. If elevated instability aligns
with the strong dynamic forcing, some isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out in the southern TN Valley.

The good news with this event will be the effect on the recent D1/D2
drought conditions. Latest NBM paints probabilities of 0.5" or
greater QPF between 70-90% for much of the central and southern
portions of our area, with 50-70% in northern sections.
Probabilities of 1" or greater are in the 40-60% range central and
south. The bulk of the precip will likely come Friday night/Saturday
morning with the frontal passage, with light qPF Thursday night and
Friday.

Colder and drier conditions return on Sunday behind the upper
trough passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR to start the period. Then, MVFR conditions late in the night
at CHA, then toward sunrise at TYS, and then at TRI late in the
period. Gusty winds are also forecast at TYS and TRI from late
tomorrow morning and through the end of the period with gusts up
to 24 kts out of southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 64 49 68 / 0 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 63 49 65 / 0 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 61 47 64 / 0 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 61 48 61 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

393
FXUS64 KMRX 061133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Limited rain chances return on Tuesday, followed by drier and
milder conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

- A system will approach the area Thursday night into Friday with
mountain waves likely in the mountains and foothills.

- Widespread showers and possibly a few storms are expected Friday
into Saturday, followed by drier and cooler conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Currently, zonal flow is in place aloft with a weak shortwave and
area of low pressure moving out of the central Great Plains. As this
system tracks to our north, southerly flow will continue the
seasonally mild conditions we have seen. Some rain chances will
exist, but moisture is pretty limited overall. Low-level flow will
also increase to near 40 kts but be from a more westerly direction,
leading to only synoptically strong winds. By Wednesday, high
pressure will build back in with ridging also leading to warmer and
drier conditions. On Thursday, ridging will remain in place across
the region but with focus turning to our west. A negatively tilted
shortwave will eject out of the Rockies with a deepening low
pressure system developing and tracking towards the central
Mississippi River Valley.

This system is expected to become an open wave with a broad low-
level jet of 60 kts or greater and a tight MSLP gradient. This will
lead to strong southerly flow and broad moisture advection. The two
main concerns with this system will be potential for organized
severe convection and mountain wave high winds. Based on the overall
timing of its associated front, the greater threat for severe
convection remains well to our west. However, the overall track,
MSLP gradient, and strength of the low-level jet certainly raise
confidence for mountain wave high winds Thursday night into Friday.
While instability will likely remain to our west, the strength of
the low-level jet could lead to showers or isolated storms bringing
winds down to the surface ahead of the frontal passage by Saturday.
Hopefully, this system will provide widespread rain to the region as
now over one half of our area is in moderate or severe drought.
Behind the front, seasonally cooler weather will return by Sunday.
Depending on how much moisture lingers, some light snow showers may
be possible in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

MVFR CIGs are currently observed at TYS and CHA. TRI is expected
to go down to MVFR in a few hours. MVFR CIGs are expected to
linger at all terminals through the afternoon. VFR conditions will
start to return around sunset and MVFR CIGs are expected again
late tonight. It is possible that CHA will go down to IFR CIGs
today but confidence is low. Southwesterly winds will be gusty
this afternoon mainly at TYS and TRI. LLWS has been added for TYS
and TRI based on observed winds aloft. Rain chances are too low to
include in TAFs but there is a chance for a brief shower through
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 50 68 48 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 50 66 43 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 61 48 65 43 / 20 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 49 62 37 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

527
FXUS64 KMRX 062345
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
645 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Mild weather through Saturday, seasonable cold Sunday into early
next week.

- A strong system will approach the area Thursday night into Friday
with potential for mountain wind gusts early Friday.

- Widespread showers and possibly a few storms are expected Friday
into Saturday, followed by drier and cooler conditions. Drought
alleviating rainfall expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Cloudy and dreary for the remainder of the day today, low level
moisture has been producing light sprinkles or mist for many
locations, expect that to continue into this evening.

Zonal flow aloft will be transitioning to upper level ridging in
response to the digging trough out west over the Rockies this week.
As a result, mild weather will be the dominant temperature pattern
through the week, until the western trough can swing through the
Eastern US and bring a cold front this weekend.

As the dominant upper trough approaches this weekend, a weak upper
shortwave will traverse across the Great Lakes early Friday morning.
Down south precipitation may be able to hold off until after sunrise
on Friday. Upper winds will strengthen to 50 to 60 knots over the
Cumberland Plateau and northwards to the Lakes Thursday night,
though will be lower over the Mountains. This is not the ideal setup
for mountain waves, fueled in part by how far north the surface low
is, still, wind advisory wind gusts may be possible over the
northern Plateau counties and East Tennessee mountains early Friday
morning before the wind field subsides later on Friday. A secondary
bout of wind gusts over advisory criteria is possible on Saturday as
the LLJ strengthens ahead of the main event's cold front.

Otherwise the two day rain event holds the potential for significant
rainfall, with the NBM painting in a greater than 50% chance for 2
inches of rain over the Plateau counties and Knoxville south to
Huntsville. With worsening drought conditions ahead of this system,
we will welcome this rainfall to put a significant dent in our long-
term deficits. Instability looks on the lower side, with some
guidance depicting 500J of CAPE on Saturday across southeastern
Tennessee. Strong gusty winds would be the most likely hazard on
Saturday if the strong winds aloft can be transferred to the surface.

Timing of the trough and front this weekend is up in the air (as is
most things in this field), with the GFS being uncharacteristically
slow with progression of the system. If timing works out, higher
elevation northwest flow snow is possible on the backside, but still
remains a low probability for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

MVFR CIG will prevail much of the night at all TAF sites. Brief
bumps back into VFR, but should remain MVFR with possible IFR
overnight. Possible FG as well, as indicated in some LAMP/MOS
guidance. CIG forecast to break mid to late morning. Winds
generally out of the southwest, with greatest magnitude at TYS and
TRI for the period. High pressure will build in latter part of the
TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 68 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 49 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 62 36 65 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

653
FXUS64 KMRX 071135
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
635 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

- Dry and mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- A strong system will approach the area Thursday night into Friday.
This system will bring potential for mountain waves off and on
Thursday night until Saturday morning.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could also lead to isolated
flooding Friday until Saturday morning.

- Seasonally colder weather will return by Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Currently, troughing is centered just to our east with a surface low
exiting out of the eastern Great Lakes. During the day today, high
pressure will build back in with ridging also leading to warmer and
drier conditions. On Thursday, ridging will remain in place across
the region but with focus turning to our west. A negatively tilted
shortwave will eject out of the Rockies with a deepening low
pressure system developing and tracking towards the central
Mississippi River Valley.

This system is expected to become an open wave with a broad low-
level jet of 60 to even 70 kts and a tight MSLP gradient. This will
lead to strong southerly flow and broad moisture advection. Based on
the overall timing of its associated front, the greater threat for
severe convection still remains well to our west. However, the
overall track, MSLP gradient, and strength of the low-level jet
certainly raise confidence for mountain wave high winds Thursday
night into Friday. While instability will likely remain to our west,
the strength of the low-level jet could lead to showers or isolated
storms bringing winds down to the surface. Another increasing
concern with this system is the threat for heavy rainfall. The area
certainly needs rainfall, following this December being the driest
since 2010 for Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. But the PWAT
anomalies per the NAEFS table will be at the 90th percentile. Plus,
there are indications of a secondary low possibly developing on
Saturday, which could lead to even more rounds of rainfall. Based on
these considerations, additional messaging for the threat of heavy
rainfall and isolated flooding will be initiated. Also, this
secondary low will prolong the mountain wave threat as well.

Behind the front, much colder air will arrive by Sunday with the
latest guidance suggesting additional wraparound moisture. This will
lead to chances for lingering snow showers, especially along the
higher terrain. High pressure will arrive by Sunday night into
Monday with subsidence promoting low temperatures to drop well into
the 20s area-wide. Height rises will allow for slightly milder
temperatures on Monday but with dry weather remaining.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected through mid morning. Fog is getting
worse near CHA and is expected to last through mid morning. Fog is
patchier near TYS and should improve in a couple hours. TRI has
MVFR CIGs but no reported fog. Clouds will scatter out in the late
morning hours and VFR conditions are expected through the evening
and likely tonight. Westerly or southwesterly winds will be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 47 69 60 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 42 68 57 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 66 42 66 57 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 37 66 51 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-Southeast
Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

648
FXUS64 KMRX 072347 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
647 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected through Thursday.

- Mountain wave enhanced strong wind gusts will be possible in the
higher elevations and foothills of the mountains at times
Thursday night into early Saturday, with the strongest winds
likely to be Friday night into early Saturday.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated
flooding Friday night into Saturday morning.

- There is currently a low chance for a few strong to severe
storms mainly Plateau and Southern Valley areas Friday night
into Saturday, although amount of instability availability is
uncertain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

We are currently under high pressure at the surface with broad upper
ridging building in from the west, and these features will drift off
to our east Thursday. Today through Thursday will remain dry. It
will also be quite warm both days and Friday as well with high
temperatures some 15 to 20+ degrees above seasonal normals.

By Thursday night into Friday, a deep trough will be moving out of
the Rockies into the Plains, with a low pressure system developing
over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and moving
northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This system will drag a cold front
through our area Saturday. Models are still struggling a bit with
the details of this system, but there is general agreement that low
level southerly flow will be increasing across our region ahead of
it Thursday night into Friday night, bringing anomalously high
moisture to the area. NAEFS data suggests PW values will exceed the
97th percentile for this time of year over much of our area from
late Friday into Saturday morning. We will see showers moving in
Friday, but the strongest jet forcing looks to occur late Friday
into Saturday ahead of the front, so the heaviest rainfall will
likely occur during that time frame. Right now, total rainfall
amounts of 1.5 to around 3 inches look likely across most of the
area, and locally higher amounts will be possible. We have been
quite dry lately which will help to mitigate the flooding threat,
but there remains a threat of localized flooding especially in
areas that see repeated or training convective cells with very
heavy rainfall. The greatest flooding threat currently looks to be
across portions of the south and the Plateau, where the latest
NBM shows a around a 20% probability of exceeding 4 inches of
rainfall.

The increased low level southerly flow will also allow for periods
of mountain wave enhancement of the wind over the higher elevations
and foothills of the mountains Thursday night into Saturday. The
details on exactly how strong the low level jet will be as well as
its orientation are still uncertain, but right now it looks like
winds speeds will be marginal for a wind advisory Thu night into
Friday, with stronger winds possible in the Friday night/early
Saturday time frame. No wind advisory will be issued for now, but
this will bear watching.

The other concern with this system will be the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms mainly Friday night into early Saturday. The
vertical wind profile indicates abundant shear will be available,
both deep layer and low level. The limiting factor will be
convective energy. Current model data suggests CAPE will be limited
and likely elevated. LREF joint probabilities for 40+kts of deep
layer bulk shear and 250 J/kg SBCAPE generally peak around 10% in
the south early Saturday, with the latest NBM probability of 250
J/kg or higher SBCAPE peaking around 30 to 40% across the south.
Given the shear profile there is a threat of severe storms
contingent on how much instability will be available to work with,
which is still very uncertain this far out. Damaging winds would
likely be the primary threat, but given the shear there would be a
tornado threat as well if enough instability is realized. This will
certainly warrant close watching as we get closer and the details
become more clear.

Behind the front, much colder air will be moving in behind the front
by Saturday night into Sunday. As the colder air pushes in, any
lingering rain showers will likely change over to snow showers and
flurries before ending, especially in the higher elevations. High
pressure will keep things dry but cold Monday, and the dry weather
will likely continue into at least Tuesday. Models are not in great
agreement near the end of the period, but we may see showers
beginning to move back in Wednesday ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Guidance indicates that KCHA is the most likely place to see fog
and/or low clouds MVFR or lower. Given the pattern and lack of air
mass change, I wouldn't be surprised if KTYS sees some as well.
Left the patchy ground fog and FEW004 in there to hint at that
possibility, but confidence isn't high enough to drop the flight
categories at the moment. All sites return to VFR by early
afternoon. Winds should be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 69 60 68 / 0 0 20 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 69 57 69 / 0 0 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 43 67 57 67 / 0 0 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 66 51 69 / 0 0 10 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

814
FXUS64 KMRX 081130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are expected again today
before a strong system approaches the area.

- Off and on mountain wave high winds are likely Thursday night into
Friday morning and again on Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Multiple rounds of showers and embedded storms are expected from
Friday into Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated
flooding.

- Seasonally colder conditions will return by Sunday into early
next week with chances for high elevation snow showers on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Currently, ridging is moving in from the west with surface high
pressure having shifted off to our east. Negatively tilted troughing
is ejecting out of the Rockies with deepening surface low pressure
moving off the High Plains. This initial setup will lead to a
broadly strengthening low-level jet in the east and southerly flow
locally. As high pressure remains nearby, unseasonably mild and dry
conditions will linger through the day today. By later tonight, the
system is expected to deepen to nearly 990mb and move into the Great
Lakes Region. At the same time, a strong MSLP gradient and 850mb jet
of 60 to 70 kts will be noted to our northwest. This will present
the beginning of a likely mountain wave event with still limited
rain chances due to initial downsloping and moisture. By late
tonight into early Saturday morning, a secondary wave and low
pressure system is expected to track just west of the area. This
will enhance the low-level jet and mountain wave winds once again.
The persistent southerly flow will also lead to a stream of moisture
advection and multiple rounds of showers and embedded storms before
the frontal boundary to our west arrives. With near January record
high PWAT values of 1.5 inches and multiple rounds, localized
flooding continues to be of concern. Regarding severe chances, the
strong low-level jet does give some potential for strong winds to be
brought down to the surface. However, the latest guidance continues
to keep the warm sector well to our south. There is some possibility
that the warm front could reach into possibly southeast Tennessee or
southwest North Carolina on Saturday. But this looks to be more true
to our east.

By Saturday evening, the associated cold front to our west is
expected to be east of the region with deep troughing and much
colder air. With northwesterly flow and lingering moisture, snow
showers are possible along the higher terrain heading into Sunday.
By Sunday night, high pressure will settle near the area, leading to
strong radiational cooling and widespread temperatures dropping well
into the 20s. High pressure will keep the region dry Monday and
Tuesday with height rises allowing for somewhat of a warming trend.
Deepening troughing is expected by the middle of the week with
varying indications of another system to our north. Depending on how
much moisture is present, a rain/snow mix will be possible,
especially in the higher elevations. This will be something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Patchy dense fog near CHA will lift by mid morning. MVFR CIGs are
expected at CHA tonight. TYS and TRI have VFR conditions and VFR
conditions will continue there today and tonight. LLWS may be an
issue late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 60 67 60 / 0 20 90 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 57 68 59 / 0 10 80 100
Oak Ridge, TN 67 57 66 58 / 0 10 90 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 51 67 56 / 0 10 80 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

161
FXUS64 KMRX 082356
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Saturday.

- Mountain wave high winds from this evening through around Noon
Friday for the far east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills.

- Multiple rounds of showers and embedded storms are expected from
Friday through Saturday. For late Friday night and Saturday
morning, locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flooding
mainly along and south of interstate 40. Low-end potential of
severe storms across southeast Tennessee for late Friday night
and Saturday morning. Damaging winds will be the main concern
with low-end chance of tornadoes.

- Seasonally colder conditions will return by Sunday into early
next week with chances for high elevation snow showers on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

An active weather pattern for the forecast period especially
tonight through Saturday.

For tonight and Friday, a strong jet/short-wave will lift
northeast from the plain states into the Great Lakes/western Ohio
valley pulling a frontal boundary into the area tomorrow. Strong
jet dynamics will enhance the fronto-genetic forcing along this
boundary producing widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms
southeast Tennessee. Welcome rainfall is expected. The strong
low-level jet associated with this system will produce a mountain
wave high wind event across the far east Tennessee mountains and
foothills. REFS and HREF show 50-70 percent probabilities of 50
mph winds.

For Friday night and Saturday, the frontal boundary will be just
south of Tennessee. Another round of strong jet forcing with 300mb
jet of 150-160kts will once again produce strong upper divergence
over the Tennessee valley associated with the right entrance
region. Strong fronto-genetic forcing along with isentropic lift
over the boundary will produce widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms.

NAEFS depict anomalously high PWs and 850mb moisture transport for
Friday night and Saturday morning. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
also depict greatest probability of excessive rainfall during that
timeframe.

REFS, RRFS and HREF show potential of 2 to 3 inch additional
rainfall totals that could lead to isolated flooding. However, the
drought conditions will limit more widespread flooding potential.
Due to low stream flows, river flooding is not expected.

Besides the flood threat, isolated severe storms can not be ruled
out across southeast Tennessee late Friday night and early
Saturday morning. Ensemble and deterministic models have been
disagreeing on how far north the strong 850mb southerly jet is
located, and location of warm frontal boundary. There is a
conditional threat depending if the warm frontal boundary can move
into far southeast Tennessee. If so, damaging winds and low-end
threat of tornadoes.

Precipitation may end as light snow or flurries across the higher
elevations Saturday night and Sunday morning as another wave
rotates into the deepening upper trough over the eastern United
States. Limited snow accumulations expected.

Dry conditions expected for Monday and Tuesday, but another
deepening upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee
valleys for mid-week may bring a wintry mix over the area. As
usual, confidence on the system is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Cloud cover will increase overnight, lowering CIGs. A
strengthening LLJ overnight may bring LLWS to TYS and TRI. Rain
will enter the region from the west, first reaching CHA and TYS
Friday morning before TRI. During the period of rain, it's
possible CIG may reach LIFR at times. Precipitation for the most
part, should be east of the terminals the last couple hours of
the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 67 60 68 / 40 90 100 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 67 58 66 / 10 90 100 100
Oak Ridge, TN 56 66 57 65 / 10 90 100 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 66 55 63 / 10 80 100 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

684
FXUS64 KMRX 091120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Saturday.

- Mountain wave high winds continue through this afternoon for the
far east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills.

- Multiple rounds of showers, and a few embedded storms, are
expected from late this morning through Saturday. The probabilities
for severe weather and flooding, while still not zero, are both
lower than they were with the previous forecast.

- Seasonally colder conditions will return by Sunday into early
next week with chances for high elevation snow showers on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

An active weather pattern remains in place through Saturday.

Rain: The latest WPC QPF amounts have trended downward. Storm total
rainfall amounts from today through Saturday have decreased areawide
and now range from around 1.5 to 2 inches for most of the area.
Southwest NC still could see some isolated amounts over 3 inches.
This reduction in storm totals comes from lower totals with the
second wave of rain late tonight into Saturday. This is due to
models shifting the re-surging 850mb jet further south with this
second wave. Model consensus for now shows the jet more centered
across central Alabama and Georgia, with the northern extent of the
jet right along the TN/GA/NC state lines. This scenario would result
in lower precip totals across most of our area. This trend shift was
seen in the previous forecast, and now with that trend continuing,
will hold off again on any flood watch products. This trend shift
doesn't mean the threat of flooding is zero, just lower
probabilities. Stay tuned though, as a northward shift in the 850mb
jet would increase rainfall totals again.

Wind: A 40 to 50kt 850mb jet currently resides across our area. Cove
Mountain had a peak gust to 48 mph at 8:00 PM but has since fallen
into the lower 40s. A Wind Advisory will continue across the east TN
mountains and foothills through this afternoon. The current advisory
expires at 18Z but it's possible that it may need to be extended by
a few hours as models don't show a big decrease in the jet until
21Z. Expect wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph to continue across the
advisory area through this afternoon. With the southern shift in the
jet for the late tonight into Saturday period, as discussed above,
this would most likely prevent another round of advisory level winds
across the east TN mountains.

Storms: The storm threat continues to look very low across our area.
The latest round of model data shows mostly elevated instability
through the entire event. However, the two periods to keep an eye on
are the late tonight period, and then again on Saturday afternoon.
These are the two timeframe when we could see some low-end surface
CAPE across the area up to a few hundred J/kg. Current HREF probs
for SBCAPE up to 100 J/kg for tonight are roughly 20 to 30% south of
I-40. Then around 10 to 20% for Saturday afternoon. Because of these
very low SBCAPE values and probs, the threat for any tornadoes is
extremely low. The main concern, for now, with any stronger storms
would be straight line wind damage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

As rain continues to approach from the west, CHA has already
reported MVFR conditions for some time with further reductions
expected. The same trend can be expected at TYS and TRI but will
be much later in the day, likely not until the bulk of the rain
arrives. LLWS will also remain for the rest of the morning and
possibly into the early afternoon at TRI and TYS. For CHA, LLWS
has been left out because of increasing wind gusts being observed
at the surface. Another increase in rain is expected late tonight
into early Saturday morning, but IFR will likely already be
ongoing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 59 66 37 / 90 100 100 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 57 64 35 / 90 100 100 20
Oak Ridge, TN 65 56 62 35 / 100 100 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 54 62 33 / 90 90 100 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

411
FXUS64 KMRX 092359
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Saturday.

- Multiple rounds of showers and a few embedded storms are
expected through Saturday. An isolated threat for flooding
exists south of I-40 where a Flood Watch was introduced.

- Seasonally colder and mostly dry weather will return by Sunday
into early next week, though a few snow showers with little to
no accumulation will be possible in higher elevations Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

A deep and positively tilted upper level trough is currently in place
over much of the central CONUS while an associated surface low has
lifted through Michigan's lower peninsula. Strong southwesterly
850mb flow around 40 to 50kts continues to promote anomalous PWAT
near 1.3 to 1.5 inches as a precip shield spreads throughout East
Tennessee. The strong H85 flow has also contributed to gusty
mountain wave winds across the East Tennessee Mountains and adjacent foothills, however, the LLJ will briefly weaken as we continue into
the afternoon and the strongest gusts into advisory level criteria
will further wane. The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire at 18Z
as planned.

The main focus with this unsettled pattern through Saturday will be
rainfall. Latest 6hr MRMS QPE values suggest this activity was
producing between 1-1.5 inches of rain across central Tennessee as
well as portions of western and central Alabama, though, a minor
decrease in efficiency has been noted over the last hour or two as
the LLJ weakens. While positioned just to our south, an
additional up tick in 850mb flow between 40 and 50 kts is expected
tonight. 12Z HREF suite was in pretty good agreement with an area
of 1.5-2.5" across our southern tier of counties, including some
localized totals in excess of three inches for storm total amounts.
Because of this, have opted to introduced a Flood Watch from
Bledsoe to Monroe and down into Cherokee and Clay counties of
North Carolina. Because of the recent dry spell low-lying and poor
drainage areas are the main concern. Severe threat seems very low
as the persistent clouds and showers will hinder the ability to
build in surface based instability. The best chance will be near
the TN/NC/GA border late Saturday morning into the afternoon. The
main concern will be damaging winds, but again this threat is very
low.

High pressure builds in Sunday into the new work week, with a period
of dry and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Some brief snow
flurries with little to no accumulation in the higher elevations
may occur before moisture totally departs the region Sunday.
Downstream from a amplified ridge over the PNW, troughing will
deepen across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys mid week. Moisture
wrapping around a surface low in the NE CONUS will lead to a
return of light precipitation chances, which may lead to light
snow accumulations across higher elevations, and seasonally cool
temperatures for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Brief break in heavier precipitation until the next round
approaches from the south tonight. Light to moderate rain at
times with predominantly IFR conditions and possible LIFR VSBY
and CIG. Precipitation will lighten across the area late morning
to early afternoon Saturday. Winds will be light, but conditions
will be MVFR at best through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 64 37 45 / 100 100 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 62 35 41 / 90 100 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 61 34 41 / 90 100 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 61 33 39 / 90 100 50 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East
Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

764
FXUS64 KMRX 101116
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today ahead of a cold
front.

- Multiple rounds of showers and a few embedded storms are expected
through this afternoon. An isolated threat for flooding exists south
of I-40 where a Flood Watch remains.

- Seasonally colder and mostly dry weather will return by Sunday
into early next week, though a few snow showers with little to
no accumulation will be possible in higher elevations Sunday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

An active weather pattern remains in place.

Rain: Through the rest of the night, most areas will continue to see
on and off light to moderate rain showers. The heaviest rain through
the overnight hours will mostly likely remain focused east of
Chattanooga and south of Knoxville. So locations such as McMinn,
Monroe, and Polk County in TN and Cherokee and Clay Counties in
southwest NC. These are the areas where the northern fringe of the
40kt 850mb jet will reside. Later this morning, around 15Z, the 850
mb jet pushes further north and into the rest of our area. This will
allow some heavier rain rates to return across the rest of our area
through around 18 to 21Z. The latest 3hr FFG values are around 2
inches across the Flood Watch Area and the 6hr values are around 2.5
to 3 inches. Event remaining storm total precip values are around
0.75 to 1 inches for most of our area, and around 1 to 1.5 inches
across most of the Flood Watch area. Up to 2 inches are forecast
across southwest NC and the southern end of the Smokies. Because of
this, the probability for flooding remains very low as these values
are well below FFG values. However, will keep the flood watch
running at this time. The bulk of the showers should push east and
out of our area around 21Z, but then some light showers move back in
later this evening into Sunday morning.

Wind: With the 850mb jet pushing north into the area later this
morning, wind gusts will increase across the higher elevations of
the east TN mountains. Wind gusts from 35 to 40 mph will be common
from around 12Z through 18Z. Latest HREF probs not too excited about
reaching advisory criteria, with only isolated areas of 30 to 40%
probs. Cove Mountain will most likely see a 40 to 50 mph gust during
this time, but most areas will likely stay just below advisory
criteria. Winds then pick up again behind cold front tonight into
Sunday, with northwest flow around 30 to 40kts at 850mb. This will
be another period where near advisory level gusts will be likely for
the higher elevations of the east TN mountains. A Wind Advisory may
be needed with the next forecast issuance.

Storms: Nothing has changed too much with the severe threat.
Instability continues to remain elevated with only very low
probabilities of some SBCAPE later today just ahead of the cold
front. With surface based CAPE unlikely, the main threat will
continue to be isolated damaging wind gusts with any stronger shower
or thunderstorm.

Tonight into Sunday morning, additional moisture moves in with the
trough axis and any precip should mainly be in the form of snow.
Light snow showers are probable across portions of northeast TN into
Southwest VA. No impacts expected as snowfall amounts will be very
light if any.

High pressure then builds in Sunday into the new work week, with a
period of dry and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Downstream from
a amplified ridge over the PNW, troughing will deepen across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys mid week. The return of moisture and cold temperatures may lead to light snow accumulations across higher
elevations of the east TN and southwest VA mountains Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure then begins to build back in on Friday
and into the weekend with moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Poor aviation conditions are ongoing and will continue for the
rest of the morning and much of the day. All sites are expected to
be primarily IFR during the morning hours with a slow return back
to MVFR west to east. This will also be coincident with rain
exiting, which is not until much later today and into the evening
for TRI. Winds will also gradually shift to be more westerly to
northwesterly behind the front during the evening and overnight
hours. Improvements back to VFR are likely by early Sunday morning
at CHA and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 36 44 26 / 100 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 34 42 24 / 100 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 62 34 42 24 / 100 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 32 38 21 / 100 60 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-
Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

508
FXUS64 KMRX 102355
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Much colder temperatures expected tonight and Sunday.

- Gusty winds, especially in the higher terrain. Wind chill
temperatures much colder than ambient temps. Trees and
powerlines will be vulnerable.

- Seasonally colder and mostly dry weather will return by Sunday
into early next week, though a few snow showers with possible
accumulations generally for higher elevations Wednesday night
into Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

In the short-term, a vigorous upper-level trough will pivot across
the Southern Appalachians this evening. As the trough axis shifts
east overnight, flow aloft will transition rapidly to a
northwesterly regime ushering in strong cold air advection. The
post frontal environment will be characterized by a tightening
pressure gradient and a 35-45 knot northwesterly low level jet at
850mb. Model soundings indicate efficient momentum transfer in
this regime, particularly where lapse rates steepen in the lower
levels. This should support wind gusts of 30-40mph in the higher
terrain and exposed ridges of the East Tennessee mountains late
tonight through Sunday afternoon.

Some orographic lifting of the lingering low level moisture along
the western slopes may squeeze out flurries or light snow showers
in elevations above 3500 ft - areas such as High Knob, Roan
Mountain, etc. Surface temperatures by Sunday morning will be much
colder than the past couple of weeks as nature finally got the
memo that it is still winter.

Probabilistic guidance indicates a greater than 80% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 40 mph for the highest peaks o f the Great Smoky
Mountains. There is a wind advisory for these areas most likely
affected. This may lead to isolated downed trees and power outages
in the high elevation communities. Valley locations will be breezy
but remain below advisory criteria.

Seasonably cool weather will continue through Tuesday. By
Wednesday evening the models begin to diverge in their solution to
the next, possibly impactful trough. Current ensemble
probabilities for measurable precipitation hover around 30-40%,
heavily dependent on the track of the southern low. Thermal
profiles suggest that if precipitation does reach the area, it
would primarily be rain for valley locations with a low
probability (less than 25%) of a wintry mix. Higher elevations
would see the majority of any accumulating snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Cold front is currently along the Cumberland Plateau and will
continue across the area over the next few hours. A wind shift to
the WNW is expected with the front and occasional light rain
possible with passage as well. Winds will be around 8-15kts during
the overnight. Improvement to VFR conditions are anticipated at
TYS/CHA shortly after midnight, with TRI having the highest
probabilities MVFR cigs continuing into morning. Main focus
tomorrow will be on nwly winds gusting between 20-30kts.
Occasional snow and rain will be possible in vicinity of TRI mid-
morning into the early afternoon. If a morning snow squall happens
to impact TRI directly, brief but quick drops in visibility will
be possible.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 44 27 51 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 41 23 46 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 34 41 24 46 / 20 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 38 20 44 / 50 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

415
FXUS64 KMRX 111139
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Temperatures will become much colder today. More seasonable
Monday. Warm-up to above normal by middle of the week until
another cool-down.

- Gusty winds, especially in the higher terrain today. See Wind
Advisory. Teens and single digit wind chills over the higher
terrain through early Monday.

- A medium chance (30 to 50%) of a few scattered snow showers
around midday into the afternoon over parts of southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee today.

- Accumulating mountain snowfall event possible Wednesday into
Thursday. Potential weekend system highly uncertain at this
time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Small update to the grids to increase PoPs and adjust the weather
grids for northern locales. Seems fairly likely that scattered
snow showers will be transiting the northern portions of the area
later today with support from the deep upper trough. Warm ground
should act as an effective deterrent of any dusting of snow, so
brief visibility reductions in the breezy snow showers is the only
concern of note today for the lower elevations.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

An initial cold front has already crossed the region. Another and
much stronger front, will impact the region later this morning
where temperatures will fall with time and winds will further
increase out of the northwest. A pretty stout shortwave with
limited moisture will follow the frontal boundary. This is what
will support possible flurries across the region or a quick burst
of snow under a narrow band. Only a few tenths of an inch is
possible across the highest terrain of southwest Virginia and
eastern Tennessee through later this evening. Although, it may be
difficult for anything to stick due to days of warmth and
increasing winds. The low pressure centers associated with the
fronts will deepen as they exit out of the NE US, and following
close behind will be strengthening high pressure from the Plains.
Thus, will provide gusty conditions for much of the day today. Up
to 45 mph gusts possible for the Wind Advisory designated zones,
while 20 to 35 mph gusts possible elsewhere.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry under high pressure and each day
will become warmer under expanding heights aloft following the
shortwave.

Wednesday trends warm as well, but will feature another big
pattern change that day into Thursday as a deep trough and
shortwave sweep down from upper Canada. This will be something to
watch, as accumulating snow will be possible across the highest
terrain and maybe very light accumulation for the valley. QPF
forecasts vary at the moment, and those discrepancies make all
the difference in just how much snow that would translate to. Stay
tuned as this forecast becomes more refined when we get closer to
the middle of the week.

Thursday will be colder with drying conditions later in the day
and into Friday. Uncertainty grows for the weekend with another
trough and potential frontal system that may produce different
p-types.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Breezy day today, with gusts upwards of 25 knots possible.
Significantly colder airmass will support scattered snow showers
across the northeastern portions of the area, with KTRI having the
best shot of seeing a snow shower or two later today. Brief
reductions in visibility will accompany the snow showers. Winds
will drop off this evening as a surface inversion forms and should
remain light into the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 23 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 20 44 24 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

339
FXUS64 KMRX 112318
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

-Scattered snow showers across parts of northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia through this afternoon.

- Gusty winds, especially in the higher terrain today. See Wind
Advisory. Teens and single digit wind chills over the higher terrain
through early Monday.

- Accumulating mountain snowfall event possible Wednesday into
Thursday. Potential weekend system HIGH uncertainty and LOW
forecast confidence at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Currently a few snow showers are moving northwest to southeast
across mainly northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. These
showers are producing quick bursts of light to moderate snow for
several minutes before quickly moving out, even with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30's. It's strong enough to cause a dusting of snow accumulations, especially in the higher terrain of the northern
Plateau, but once the snow shower moves out anything on the ground
quickly begins to melt. Expect these scattered snow showers to
continue through the afternoon hours as there is still plenty of
returns back into eastern Kentucky that still need to
work their way eastward.

In addition the winds out of the northwest are gusting pretty good
in the higher elevations with numerous places likely seeing 30-40mph
gusts. Will continue with the wind advisory for the East Tennessee
mountains, especially with winds getting enhanced by the snow
showers we'll likely see periods just above advisory level winds.

Quiet weather and a quick warm up to start the work week with highs
climbing back into the 50's for much of the Valley by Tuesday. Front
will move through Wednesday along with precipitation. Expect the
precipitation to start as rain for most, and temperatures will drop
overnight and we switch over to snow.

Won't get too in the weeds with model diagnostics and snow amounts
because the one consistent thing with this upcoming
Wednesday/Thursday system is that the long range deterministic
models do not have a good handle on it at all... Which is to be
expected in a northwest flow event that can drastically change based
on temp/moisture availability/forcing/etc. It would be a fools
errand to pick your favorite deterministic model that shows 6" of
snow in the central valley, or (on the opposite end) the model that
shows no snow in the valley and just a dusting in the
Appalachians... and expect them to verify. In northwest flow snow
events it's a good idea to wait until the higher resolution short
term models and hourly models start to ingest the upcoming event.
This far out a look at the probabilistic guidance is probably of more
use. The 90/95th percentile shows some very extreme amounts, but if
you look at the mean/median and the 25-75th percentiles a more
traditional northwest flow event is the common sentiment. For
example (do not take these values as a forecast) for Knoxville some
of the deterministic data shows 5+ inches of snow, but the
median/mean and box and whiskers data points to a 0.5-2" event,
which aligns more closely to what typically happens in a northwest
snow event. Also worth keeping an eye on is the timing of the
transition to snow and the best forcing. If you want accumulating
snow in the valley you traditionally want your best forcing and
heaviest precipitation to occur overnight as during the daytime the
sun really limits how productive the clouds are at ice nucleation.

So long story short with what might occur on Wednesday into
Thursday. LOW confidence in snow amounts (don't believe just a
single model) HIGH confidence snow will occur somewhere with the
Cumberland Plateau, southwest VA, and especially the East Tennesse
mountains having the best chance to see accumulations. If you have
travel plans that involve going over the Appalachians or the
Cumberland Plateau plan on possible snow accumulations on the road.
Good news is this event looks to be a clean transition from rain to
snow, and hopefully keeping the gross icy stuff to a very short
window and any ice impacts minimal. Best thing to do right now is
pay attention to the forecast updates as the models will likely
continue to oscillate wildly in snow potential, and confidence
should begin to increase when we're about 72 hours and higher
resolution models and hourly models start to come into play.

As we head into the weekend cold temperatures remain in place with
yet another possible snow maker looking to move through somewhere
over the eastern US. If you thought models were handling
Wednesday/Thursday poorly then you don't even want to glance at the
weekend. A lot of what might happen Saturday/Sunday will depend on
what happens Wednesday/Thursday, but if you have any upcoming
weekend plans keep an eye on the forecast for possible travel
impacts in the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions throughout the forecast at all TAF sites. Building
surface ridging and weakening pressure gradient will allow winds
to diminish.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 50 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 46 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 24 46 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 43 25 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

529
FXUS64 KMRX 121141
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Accumulating snow is becoming more likely for much of the area
Wednesday night and Thursday, especially across the higher elevations
of far east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Significant snow
accumulations possible especially across the higher terrain.

- Another wintry mix possible this weekend. Confidence is low on
the development of this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

For Monday and Tuesday, surface ridging will build into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry northwest flow
aloft. Low afternoon relative humidity is expected for Monday.

For Wednesday through Thursday, ensemble cluster and latest
deterministic models show a series of upper jets carving out a deep
northern stream upper trough into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and the
central and southern Appalachians. A baroclinic leaf will develop
over the Tennessee valley ahead of the upper trough as the strong
300mb jet dynamics enhances the incoming cold front/fronto-genetic
forcing. An area of rain will move into the region Wednesday afternoon/evening.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, deepening upper trough will cold
air aloft will move into the Appalachians with a quasi-stationary/
slow moving frontal front enhances the fronto-genetic forcing along
with the cold air aloft steepening the low-level lapse rates for
widespread precipitation. Vertical temperature profile becomes cold
enough for rain to change to snow most locations by early Thursday
morning. Freezing rain is not expected with this event. Thursday
morning commute may be a problem for parts of the area.

For Thursday, upper trough axis will move east across the region
with boundary layer flow becoming more northwesterly enhancing
orographic lift. Cold air aloft squeezing available moisture and
northwest flow orographic lift will continue snowfall over much of
the area during the day, except for the southern Tennessee valley.

LREF probabilities of 1 inch or more are quite high for the Plateau, mountains, southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Significant
snow accumulations are becoming more likely for the far east
Tennessee mountains and mountains of southwest Virginia.

For Thursday night, snow showers are likely to continue across the
favored northwest flow snow locations of far east Tennessee and
mountains of southwest Virginia. Light snow showers or flurries are
possible in the evening for areas north of interstate 40.

For Friday, upper trough lifts northeast with dry conditions and
moderation of temperatures.

For next weekend, ensemble clusters and latest deterministic models
show a great deal of variability with another system moving into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and dry weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 28 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 21 52 33 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

550
FXUS64 KMRX 122328
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
628 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with
lower chances for the valley Wednesday night into Thursday.
Significant snow accumulations will be possible mainly across
the higher terrain.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend,
especially over the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

High pressure over the region will keep things dry today through
Tuesday, with some gradual warming. Highs Tuesday will be a few
degrees above seasonal normals.

By Wednesday, an upper trough will be digging from the west and
northwest, and a cold front will be approaching. A strong upper jet
diving southeast on the back side will amplify the trough over the
central and southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning. Much colder
air will be pushing in behind the cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Confidence is high on this general scenario for Wednesday/Thursday,
but the details are much murkier. Models solutions have been all
over the place as to how the forcing evolves, especially as it
relates to possible valley snow. Model trends over the past 24 hours
have seen even the more bullish models for snow (led by the GFS)
backing off, and ensemble probabilities for accumulating snow in the
valleys have been dropping. Right now, latest NBM probabilities for
greater than an inch of snow for much of the northern and central
valley are less than 20%. However, the confidence for significant
snow accumulations over the higher elevations is much higher. The
initial precipitation as the front and upper trough move in, which
will likely start as rain over the lower elevations, will either
start as snow or quickly change over in the highest terrain. In
addition, a period of northwest flow and cold advection will lead to orographically forced snow showers that will linger into Thursday.
Several inches of snow are likely over the higher mountain peaks of
the mountains by the end of Thursday. Travel impacts will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday especially over the higher
terrain areas of SW VA, the Plateau, and the E TN mountains.

A few flurries may linger into Thursday night especially northeast
and mountains, but by Friday we will be between systems with a dry
but cold day across the area.

For the weekend, models are in general agreement that we will see
additional short wave energy moving in and reinforcing the upper
trough over the region. The details are still very uncertain, but
additional light precipitation is possible which thermal profiles
suggest would likely be in the form of snow showers. Monday looks to
be mainly dry but cold.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only high
clouds passing by at times. Pressure gradients will increase
across the region during the midday time frame tomorrow. The
restriction of the TN valley, coupled with pressure gradients and
enough mixing, could produce some 15-20kt gusts at KTYS after 18z.
Not supremely confident in that however so just have a FM group
to introduce some 23011KT winds there for now. Elsewhere, expect
winds to remain below 7kt through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 58 39 52 / 0 0 0 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 55 39 50 / 0 0 0 80
Oak Ridge, TN 27 53 36 48 / 0 0 0 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 52 34 47 / 0 0 0 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

409
FXUS64 KMRX 131137
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with
low chances (less than 20 percent) for the valley Wednesday
night into Thursday. Significant snow accumulations will be
possible mainly across the higher terrain.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend,
especially over the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for
snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely
focus on that.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue today as high
pressure slowly moves off to the east. Could see some gusty winds in
the central valley as pressure gradients strengthen in response to
low pressure developing over the Great Lakes, but that's about
it.

By Wednesday, an upper trough will be digging southeastward across
the upper midwest, with another southern stream shortwave ejecting
eastward from southern Texas along the Gulf Coast. A strong upper
jet diving southeast on the back side will amplify the trough over
the central and southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning, pushing
a cold front through the region by that afternoon, allowing much
colder air to filter into the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Trends continue to show little in the way of notable snow
accumulation in the valley this evening. Both the NBM and HREF
probabilistic data show between a 10-15 percent chance of seeing an
inch of snow Wednesday night into Thursday anywhere in the central
and northern TN valley. Intuitively this makes sense as the main
forcing with the front will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours. By the time the thermal profiles are really
supportive of low elevation snow, we'll have mostly lost the upper
forcing and will be rapidly losing saturation into the DGZ. Higher
confidence exists for accumulating snowfall in the mountains though.
A northwest flow regime will be in full swing by Wed evening, and
this should last into mid-Thu morning, producing several hours of orographically forced snow showers in the mountains. Moisture
profiles are expectedly shallow Wed night, but one could argue the
profiles support some saturation into the DGZ given how cold they
become late Wed night. As such, wouldn't be surprised to see some
periods of decent snowfall rates in the mountains. The current
forecast shows some 4-6" totals in the Smokies with 2-3" totals
elsewhere in the east TN mountains and higher terrain of SW
Virginia. Will need to keep an eye on any lingering connection to
western Great Lakes moisture as that could increase snowfall totals,
but for now this seems very reasonable given recent trends in
guidance. Travel impacts will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday especially over the higher terrain areas of SW VA, the
Plateau, and the E TN mountains, and advisories may be required.
We're a little too far out to issue anything at this time however.

A few flurries may linger into Thursday night especially northeast
and mountains, but by Friday we will be between systems with a dry
but cold day across the area.

For the weekend, models are in general agreement that we will see
additional short wave energy moving in and reinforcing the upper
trough over the region. The details are still very uncertain, but
additional light precipitation is possible which thermal profiles
suggest would likely be in the form of snow showers. Monday looks to
be mainly dry but cold.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A few gusty winds during the afternoon to 20 knots or so,
otherwise winds at the surface will be 10 knots or less. A brief
period of LLWS is possible tonight as flow aloft strengthens
briefly and then weakens before daybreak tomorrow. High clouds
will begin to arrive later today and build in overnight in advance
of the next frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 38 52 24 / 0 0 70 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 38 49 21 / 0 10 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 54 36 47 21 / 0 10 90 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 33 47 19 / 0 10 80 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

385
FXUS64 KMRX 132358 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations,
with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the
Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through
Thursday morning.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend,
especially over the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for
snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely
focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame.

For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday
layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with
increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational
cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance.

For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the
eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For
Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio
valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region.
This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the
area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing
is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this
boundary.

Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region
associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile
quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping
quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow
levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around
00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70
percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest
elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches
across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across
southwest Virginia mountains.

We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm
Wednesday through 11 am Thursday.

REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch
(possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower
elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on
issuing a SPS to message this possibility.

Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture
have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and
flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning.

For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the
area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the
area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface
ridging.

Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night
and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region
producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters
show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with deteriorating flight
categories expected around/after 18z tomorrow as a cold front and
associated rainfall moves in. KTRI will be the last to see precip
so a PROB30 for MVFR categories should suffice there. But MVFR or
IFR conditions are expected at KTYS and especially KCHA once
rainfall sets in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 52 24 36 / 0 70 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 49 21 32 / 0 90 60 10
Oak Ridge, TN 36 48 20 32 / 10 100 60 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 48 19 28 / 0 90 70 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST
Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST
Thursday for Russell-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

330
FXUS64 KMRX 141139
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Significant accumulating snow is expected across the higher
elevations with lighter accumulations of a dusting to 1/2 inch for
the Plateau and Valley from late this afternoon and evening through
early Thursday morning.

- Dry and cold weather is expected later on Thursday into Friday.

- Another chance for rain or snow showers returns this weekend,
especially over the higher elevations.

- Cold and dry conditions will return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Updated the precipitation chances for Thursday, both the HRRR and
the RRFS depict scattered snow showers forming underneath the deep
trough, with saturated sounding profiles in the DGZ supportive of
snow in the cold environment during the day on Thursday. There's
been some indications that these showers will have a moisture
connection back to Lake Michigan, helping provide moisture in an
otherwise drier environment. Sharp reductions in visibility and
quick accumulations on roads is possible under these snow showers,
though they are brief. Additional snow amounts of a half inch or so
possible should these snow showers materialize during the day on
Thursday. Activity will wane as Thursday afternoon progresses as the
upper trough axis moves out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Currently, troughing is to our northwest and will dig southeastward
due to an upstream jet in excess of 160 kts. Downstream of this
trough is a weaker jet, around 110 to 120 kts. A surface cold front
is also near the Ohio River Valley, which will move into the area
during the day. Also during this time, the downstream jet will
approach with our region being in the right-entrance region. Direct ageostrophic vertical jet circulations will lead to increasing upper divergence and enhancing frontogenesis. This will help to increase
coverage and intensity of precipitation that moves into the region
throughout the day. Outside of the mountains, precipitation will
begin as rain with transitions to snow before and near sunset. Based
on the latest data, much of the mountains will already be cold
enough for all snow when precipitation starts mid to late afternoon.
For portions of southwest Virginia and the Cumberland Plateau, this
occurs soon after with moisture exiting the Plateau earlier tonight.
Latest soundings suggest saturation well into the dendritic growth
zone during the evening hours, especially in the eastern half of the
area. Based on these considerations, snow totals have increased for
the mountains with an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for places
in and near the Smokies. Moisture will largely exit by the early
morning with 20 to 25 kts of northwest flow taking shape. This will
continue some snow showers over the higher terrain, but additional accumulations for the mountains will be pretty limited.

Throughout the day on Thursday, troughing will be centered to our
east with high pressure expanding from the south. Some lingering
flurries will continue, but increasing subsidence will lead to
clearing conditions later in the day. With 850mb temperatures
approaching -12 to -14 Celsius, highs will likely remain at or below
freezing for most. A much colder night is also expected due to the
subsidence and recent CAA. By Friday night into Saturday morning,
another trough will dive down from the northwest, bringing
additional precipitation chances. Models do still differ on precip
amounts and the vertical profile. Temperatures around 850mb look to
be well below freezing but with warmer temperatures below, meaning
mixed precipitation is possible. This is less true for places
further north and east, which are the more likely locations to see accumulating snowfall. Regardless, this system will be the main
focus, following the one in the near-term. Afterwards, persistent
troughing and an Arctic High will keep cold and dry conditions in
the region. Highs on Sunday will likely remain near or below
freezing with some moderation of temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Sharp cold front to bring rain and gusty winds. CIGs will continue
to deteriorate, and periods of IFR are possible amongst a
predominate MVFR deck of clouds, especially during the passage of
the cold front with the rain. Gusty winds will continue into
tonight, and it's not out of the question for snow showers to
impact KTRI tonight. Ceilings will remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 23 36 21 / 80 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 20 31 18 / 90 60 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 49 20 32 18 / 90 50 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 19 27 13 / 80 80 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Thursday for Johnson-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-
Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Thursday for Russell-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

742
FXUS64 KMRX 142354 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Significant accumulating snow is expected across the higher
elevations with lighter accumulations possible across portions
of the Plateau and Valley from late this afternoon and evening
through early Thursday morning.

- Gusty winds and cold wind chills can be expected especially
over the higher mountains late tonight into early Thursday.

- Dry and cold weather for Thursday night into Friday.

- Another chance for rain or snow showers returns early this
weekend, especially over the higher elevations.

- Cold and dry conditions will return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Currently, upper troughing is to our west with short wave energy
rounding the base, and a cold front south of the Ohio River. The
short wave will swing across the area this evening and the cold
front will move through, with the axis of the upper trough setting
up over our area tonight. A band of precipitation will move through
this afternoon/early evening with the best frontogenesis and jet
dynamics, then a surge of cold air will push in on northwest flow
behind the cold front later tonight into Thursday. The initial
precipitation band will begin as rain over all but the highest
mountain peaks, but we will see the snow level falling this
afternoon into the evening, and even the valleys may see snow snow
mix in as the initial band exits. As the cold advection and
northwest flow ramps up behind the front, we will see orographically
forced snow showers and flurries later tonight and these will
continue into Thursday before ending. Lapse rates, moisture depth,
and strength of the northwest flow do not look favorable for a big
mountain orographic snow, but there will be additional light
accumulations later tonight into Thursday over the normally favored
higher terrain areas. Will keep the winter storm warning and
advisories over the mountain areas as they are, although will lower
the peak amounts especially over the Smokies. Portions of the
Plateau and the northern half of the Valley may see a dusting to
around a half inch of snow, with locally higher amounts up to an
inch on the highest ridge tops. Will keep the SPS for these areas.

In addition to the snow, expect wind gusts in excess of 35 mph at
times over the higher elevations tonight into Thursday. Very cold
wind chills can be expected as well later tonight into early
Thursday, especially over the higher elevations where values will
dip below 0 at times.

High pressure will bring a cold but dry night Thursday night, with
dry conditions continuing into Friday with temperatures near to a
bit below normal. Another upper short wave moving through the upper
trough may bring additional light precipitation Friday night into
Saturday, at least some of which would be snow showers based on
model thermal profiles. Right now, the NBM shows very low chances
of an inch of snow in the valley (generally 10% or less), but closer
to a 50 or 60% chance of an inch of snow or more across some of the
higher mountains.

Right now, Sunday into Wednesday look to be mainly dry, with a very
cold Sunday followed by a gradual moderating trend for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A cold front will have moved through all TAF sites by the 00z
hour, with the only SHRA still affecting KTRI to come to an end by
01z. Regional radar mosaic shows a lot of showers upstream over
Kentucky. They should only affect KTYS and KTRI and given their
cellular nature, I just have some PROB30 to account for them.
Otherwise, expect gusty post-frontal winds through much of the
period with CIGS bouncing between upper-end MVFR and low-end VFR
territory.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 24 36 22 50 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 31 19 47 / 40 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 22 31 19 45 / 30 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 27 14 43 / 80 20 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Johnson-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Russell-
Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

922
FXUS64 KMRX 151144
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- After morning flurries and snow showers, dry and cold conditions
are expected today and tonight.

- Another chance for rain and snow showers will return Friday
night into Saturday morning with snow accumulations most likely
to be in the higher elevations of the mountains.

- Snow is possible again on Sunday. Confidence remains limited in the
westward extent of snow in our area, but places in the east
have the highest chance.

- Dry and very cold conditions are expected on Monday, followed by
a gradual warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Currently, deep troughing is moving over the region with a strong
cold front pushing to our east. Much of the better moisture has
pushed east with saturation to 850mb or higher still in place. With northwesterly flow of 20 to 25 kts and 850mb temperatures below -10
Celsius, some additional snow showers will linger in the mountains
but with the focus turning towards very cold temperatures and wind
chills, especially in the mountains. Resulting wind chills will be
below 0 with even lower values across the highest peaks. Flurries
will linger for some early in the day, but moisture will exit even
more as high pressure expands from the south. With 850mb
temperatures below -10 Celsius, highs will likely remain at or below
freezing for most with a lingering northwesterly breeze. Better
subsidence tonight will allow for even colder temperatures well into
the teens.

During the day on Friday, another trough will deepen to our
northwest with a surface low diving into the Great Lakes region.
This will bring another return of precipitation to the region later
on Friday until Saturday morning. Based on the latest guidance,
there is still uncertainty as to how far south cold air will be
below 850mb. Most sources suggest the region to be below freezing at
850mb with the 925mb freezing line in our northwestern areas or even
further north than that. With this scenario, focus for accumulating
snowfall will be in the higher elevations of the mountains and
southwest Virginia, which will likely be cold enough to see
primarily snow. QPF totals will generally be anywhere from 0.10 to
0.25 inches, meaning several inches of snow are possible for the
highest elevations. For remaining areas, temperatures in the lower
levels largely remain above freezing before moisture exits on
Saturday.

Sunday is another period that will need to be watched as a system is
expected to develop along the Gulf and deepen as it moves up the
Atlantic Coast. Currently, solutions still differ on how much this
system phases, as well as the exact track. But our region will
remain cold enough for any precipitation that falls to be snowfall.
Currently, the eastern half of the area has the greatest chance to
see accumulating snowfall, but many solutions still keep the track
far enough east for limited impact locally. But some still show
notable QPF in our area. Regardless, this will be a time to watch.
By Monday, deep troughing will remain over the area with a Canadian
High settling in from the northwest, leading to cold and dry
conditions. Monday night will see a combination of strong
subsidence, making the case for lows to drop well into the teens to
possibly single digits for some. Afterwards, high pressure will
remain in place but with gradual height rises and a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Snow showers are gradually weakening this morning as cold and dry
air eats away at the moisture. Low stratus will remain VFR today,
with a brief renewed bout of stratus this afternoon before
clearing by tonight. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty for a
few more hours before steadily decreasing and being around 5 knots
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 22 51 35 / 0 0 0 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 18 47 34 / 10 0 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 31 18 46 33 / 0 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 14 44 30 / 10 0 0 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Johnson-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

328
FXUS64 KMRX 152344
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- A few flurries, and maybe a stray snow shower, will continue
through this afternoon. No impacts expected.

- Bitter Wind Chills the rest of the day and into tonight with
values teens across the valley and single digits to below zero in
the east TN mountains.

- Another chance for rain and/or snow showers returns Friday night
into Saturday, especially over the higher elevations. Light
accumulations possible.

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will return Sunday into early
next week, with warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

A very shallow cloud deck at around 4 to 5K feet remains across the
area but with dry air at the surface. A few flurries are managing
to work there way down to the surface prior to evaporation. Isolated
flurries, and perhaps a stray snow shower, will continue through
this afternoon. Drier air moves in this evening and all wintery
activity ceases. Very cold Chills we be in place through the rest of
today and overnight, with values from the single digits to teens.
Please be well prepared if you plan to spend time outdoors, even
then it's best to limit any time spent outdoors as hypothermia is a
real concern. Overnight lows will range from the lower teens
north of I-40, and upper teens south of 40, with single digit
temps in the east TN mountains.

We see a rebound in temps on Friday as southerly flow returns ahead
of our next system. Near normal highs are expected but with
increasing clouds through the day. Then, increasing POPs by mid to
late afternoon as a strong shortwave begins to move into the area.
Precip is expected to begin as all rain across valley locations,
with a rain/snow mix developing Friday night along and north of I-
40. All rain expected across the southern TN valley. Minor snow
accumulations less than half an inch are possible across the
Cumberland Plateau, northeast TN, and the lower elevations of
southwest VA.

For the east TN mountains, precip may begin as snow Friday
afternoon, and remain snow, but only at our highest elevations
(above 5000 to 6000 feet). At these elevations, a few inches of snow
are possible. Latest HREF probs show around 70 to 80% probs for at
least 1 inch of snow at these highest elevations. The chance for 3
inches drops down to around 40%. Again, only above 5000 feet.
Elevations from 3000 to 5000 feet across the east TN and southwest
VA mountains, have low to moderate probs to see 1 to 2 inches.

Precip moves out Saturday and colder air moves in on Sunday behind
the cold front. Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with well below
normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 30s. Low temps will
range from teens Sunday night, to near single digits on Monday
night, back to teens on Tuesday night.

Temperatures then moderate for Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure returns to the area, along with slight chances for precip
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR can be expected with lighter winds or calm conditions
overnight and higher CIG height. Flow turns primarily out of the
southwest for Friday, with possible gusts at CHA and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 21 51 35 47 / 0 10 70 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 18 48 36 45 / 10 20 80 10
Oak Ridge, TN 18 46 33 44 / 10 20 80 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 15 44 31 43 / 0 10 70 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

639
FXUS64 KMRX 161115 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
615 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Dry and warmer conditions are expected today with light rain
moving in by early evening. A transition to snow is expected,
especially in southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains
where light accumulations are likely.

- Dry weather will return on Saturday with very cold temperatures
expected Sunday night into early next week.

- A gradual warming trend will follow mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Currently, troughing is to our east with another shortwave and
surface low moving out of Canada. Surface high pressure is also
centered to our south. With very cold air in place and increasing
subsidence, temperatures continue to drop further into the teens for
most. During the day, however, height rises are expected with the
system to our northwest diving into the Great Lakes region. With
high pressure shifting east, southwesterly flow will help
temperatures warm up significantly into the 40s. While the day will
be dry, this southerly flow will bring moisture into the area ahead
of the front associated with the northern system. This will bring
another return of precipitation into the area by early evening until
Saturday morning. Based on the latest guidance, temperatures around
850mb will be at or below freezing between 00Z to 03Z with cooling
down to 925mb by 09Z or so. Based on this trend, the highest
elevations of the Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains will
likely see primarily snow with other locations in southwest Virginia
likely transitioning after midnight. Northeast Tennesee and perhaps
parts of the northern Plateau will see a period of sufficiently cold temperatures before precipitation exits. Chances are high for the
mountains, especially the highest elevations, to see multiple inches
of snow with an inch or two looking likely across portions of
southwest Virginia. A dusting or more is probable for northeast
Tennesee with remaining places likely to see a rain/snow mix or even
a transition to snow but without accumulations. Temperatures will
rise back into the 40s for many on Saturday as there will be limited
CAA and modest height falls behind this front.

Saturday night, a system is expected to develop along the northern
Gulf and then quickly track up the Atlantic Coast on Sunday. Some
flurries or light snow showers are possible in eastern areas, but
the track will keep most precipitation to our east. Focus will
then turn towards a significant cooldown as a strong cold front
moves through ahead of Arctic High pressure. With 850mb
temperatures below -10 Celsius, highs will struggle to get much
above freezing for many on Monday and Tuesday. Monday night will
see very cold temperatures as the high will be almost directly
over the area, allowing for strong subsidence. Some places will
likely see single digit lows. High pressure will move eastward by
midweek with height rises also expected. This will allow for a
return of southerly flow and a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

The main aviation impact this period will be gusty winds at TYS
and CHA, with gusts in the 20-30 kt range expected to begin around
noon at both sites. Gusts should drop off around sunset but
maintain SW winds around 10-15 kt. Some LLWS may be present in the
evening. Light precip and MVFR cigs may spread into the area
around 03-06Z, with TRI seeing a change to snow and IFR conditions
in the 08-10Z time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 36 48 23 / 0 80 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 46 21 / 0 80 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 46 34 45 20 / 10 80 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 30 43 20 / 0 70 30 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

489
FXUS64 KMRX 161813
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Dry and warmer conditions are expected today with light rain
moving in by early evening. A transition to snow is expected,
especially in southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains
where light accumulations are likely.

- Dry weather will return on Saturday with very cold temperatures
expected Sunday night into early next week.

- A gradual warming trend will follow mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cloud cover has largely diminished behind an upper level shortwave
lifting northeast along the New England coastline this afternoon.
Dry conditions and breezy winds will continue in wake through much
of the afternoon and evening.

A second shortwave currently diving out of Canada towards the
Mississippi River Valley will enhance upper level divergence over
the southern and central Appalachians tonight. A surface low
trekking through the northern Great Lakes will drive a cold front
through the forecast area overnight, bringing increasing chances of precipitation. Rain chances ramp up for the Cumberland Plateau
between 8 and 10pm, gradually working eastward and eventually
departing the area around or just shortly after sunrise.

This will be a cold rain for most valley locations. However, near
freezing temperatures will lead to light snow accumulations in
far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia, as well as the
higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. Based on
NAMBufr soundings, there could be a brief period of saturation
within the DGZ(through roughly -16C)around 6-10Z. That is the most
likely time for a quick 1 to 2 inches to occur, particularly on
higher ridges and mountains peaks across the East Tennessee
Mountains and southwest Virginia. Some light totals one-half inch
or less cannot be ruled out in far Northeast Tennessee but
temperatures will be even more borderline in these areas. Will be
covering this with an SPS for the time being, but the timing of
the event will allow for the next forecast package to reevaluate
if hi-rez models want to show any sort of cooling trends with
temperatures.

Additionally, a strengthening swly LLJ is expected this evening into
the overnight. While the surface low is well to our north, a 4 to 6
mb pressure gradient is expected between Asheville and Sevierville
due to CAD on the eastern side of the mountains. Soundings also
depict an inversion near or just above 850mb. For this reason, a
brief period of weak mountain wave enhanced winds is expected
across our southern portions of the East Tennessee mountains and
immediate foothills. RRFS probabilities of wind gusts greater than
40mph increase to near 90% as the LLJ peaks around 55-60kts. A
Wind Advisory has been introduced from the Monroe to Greene County
mountain zones from 6pm to 5am.

While a few light flurries cannot be ruled out Saturday night, a
quieter weather pattern is largely expected Saturday night through
the middle of next week. The main focus will be on below normal
temperatures as a broad upper level trough remains seated over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. High temperatures will
struggle to reach 40 degrees Sunday through Tuesday before a
gradual warming trend returns mid-week. Monday night looks to be
the coldest period, when wind chills may also become sub-zero in
the high elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest
Virginia. Next chances of precipitation do not return to the area
until late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Gusty winds at TYS and CHA this afternoon, with gusts in the 20-25
kt range. Gusts should drop off around sunset but maintain SW winds
around 10kt. LLWS is likely this evening at at all sites. Light
precip and MVFR cigs spread into the area around 03-06Z, with TRI
seeing a change to snow and IFR conditions in the 08-10Z time frame.
CHA back to VFR around sunrise, and the TYS by mid morning. TRI will
likely stay MVFR after sunrise and through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 49 25 39 / 90 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 47 23 35 / 90 20 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 35 46 22 35 / 90 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 44 22 31 / 70 30 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

046
FXUS64 KMRX 171123 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- After morning rain/snow, dry and gradually clearer conditions are
expected today with highs in the 40s for most. Sunday will be colder
with highs only in the 30s.

- Very cold conditions are expected early next week, especially
Monday night into Tuesday, with below 0 wind chills possible in the
higher elevations.

- Wednesday will dry and more seasonal with chances for rain and
snow again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Currently, a system is centered over the Great Lakes with its
frontal boundary to our west. Ahead of this front, precipitation
will continue to move in with breezy conditions ahead of the front,
especially in the mountains where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.
Because of very dry conditions today, precipitation has taken some
time to reach the ground, but surface wetbulb values certainly
indicate a narrower window for rain before snow takes over in
southwest Virginia and the Tennessee mountains. Overall
accumulations remain largely the same but could be slightly higher
than expected in some parts of southwest Virginia. But, the window
for precipitation also does look slightly shorter than previously
expected as well. After the front moves through, dry with gradually
clearer conditions are expected throughout the day.

By this evening into tonight, troughing will deepen to our west with
another system developing along the northern Gulf. This system is
expected to move well off the Atlantic Coast, keeping our region dry
but with more westerly winds and CAA. By Monday, however, a strong
cold front will move through the area ahead of an Arctic High diving
down from Canada. While another system will track to our north, our
region will remain dry with very cold temperatures being the main
focus as 850mb temperatures will be near to below -10 Celsius for
some time. The MSLP gradient will make for increasing winds and
below 0 wind chills for the higher elevations. By Monday night, this
Arctic High will be set up almost directly over the region, leading
to strong subsidence and radiational cooling. Much of the region
could drop to near 10 degrees with single digits across northeast
Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and the mountains. With similar
conditions on Tuesday, many places will stay near or below freezing
at best. By Wednesday, this high will shift to our east, leading to
southerly flow and more seasonal temperatures after another very
cold morning.

The end of the week will be another period to watch as troughing
will deepen with another frontal boundary approaching from the
northwest. Moisture will also increase from the south, leading to
high chances for precipitation. Models differ on exact timing but
also on how cold the lower levels will be as precipitation occurs.
Most sources suggest the greatest chance for snow will be to our
north, but sufficiently cold air could reach into northern portions
of our region. Regardless, this will be worth watching in the days
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is crossing the area, and cigs are lifting at CHA
behind the front. Riding cigs should follow at TYS and TRI in the
next few hours, with all sites VFR by noon. A secondary cold front
moves through the area this evening, and may bring MVFR cigs to
TRI, along with a shift of winds to a W-NW direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 25 38 25 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 23 35 22 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 22 35 22 / 0 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 22 31 18 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

285
FXUS64 KMRX 172339
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Brief light snow with very little to no impacts is expected in
the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee
mountains tonight.


- Cold conditions are expected Sunday into early next week,
especially Monday night into Tuesday when below 0 wind chills
will be possible in the higher elevations.

- Sunday through Wednesday will be dry, with chances for rain and
snow again late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Scattered clouds paint regional satellite imagery as a reinforcing
surface cold front spans through eastern KY southwestward into
northern GA. Some light rain can be noted in vicinity of the front,
but coverage and intensity are very limited due to the lack of
moisture following last nights initial FROPA.

A vort max rounding the base of a trough atop the eastern half of
the CONUS will aid the cold front through the region tonight. Very
little to no impacts associated with new wintry precip are expected
with the frontal passage. Light accumulations an inch or less are
possible across the highest peaks of the East Tennesee mountains.
A light rain/snow mix or flurries will be briefly possible across
SW VA, far NE TN, and SW NC. Snowmelt from this previous
afternoons snow in southwest Virginia may refreeze and create
slick conditions for Sunday morning commuters, however, light
winds this afternoon and tonight will help hinder how much
moisture is available to refreeze.

By Sunday and into the new work week, focus will be on the below
normal temperatures owing to a very anomalous trough expanding deep
into the Gulf states. Monday night looks to be the coldest period.
During this time, wind chills near or slightly below zero will be
possible in the highest terrain of the Tennessee mountains and
southwest Virginia. Low temperatures will be largely in the low
teens with some places dipping into single digits.

Temperatures will undergo brief moderation Wednesday into the late
week as H85 flow backs to the southwest and promotes weak WAA.
Models begin to diverge in scenarios for the late week but it
generally looks like precipitation chances make a return with an
additional weaker frontal passage with light rain/snow Thu. A drier
period would likely follow the front. Deterministic guidance have
considerable differences in the strength and timing of an additional
system over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF cycle. The only exception is
MVFR conditions are possible briefly near TRI as snow showers
develop late this evening. Clouds will scatter out by morning at
TYS and CHA. Clouds will scatter out by early afternoon at TRI as
a cold front moves through the region. Winds will become more
westerly tomorrow behind the front but will stay fairly light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 39 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 35 23 39 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 23 35 22 38 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 31 18 35 / 20 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

470
FXUS64 KMRX 181108 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Brief light snow showers and flurries especially north and
mountains tonight into early Sunday with very little to no
impacts.

- Cold conditions are expected Sunday into early next week,
especially Monday night into Tuesday when below zero wind
chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- Sunday through Wednesday will be mainly dry, with chances for
precipitation again later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

We start the period with an upper short wave to our west rounding
the base of the Eastern CONUS trough, and this short wave will
rapidly push across our area late tonight/early Sunday and then
exit to our east. This wave has little moisture to work with, but
will likely squeeze some snow flurries or light snow showers out
ahead of it with little or no accumulation. However, a few of the
higher mountain peaks and some SW VA locations may see a few
tenths of accumulation.


Another surge of cold air will push in as the short wave exits
Sunday into Monday and surface high pressure will build in from the
west later Sunday into Tuesday before exiting off to our east by
Wednesday. The Sunday afternoon through Tuesday period will be dry
but cold, with high temperatures generally around 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. Monday night will see the coldest temperatures, with
lows from near 10 through the teens across most valley locations and
in the single digits in the mountains. Enough wind may linger over
the mountains Monday night to send wind chills below zero at times
over the higher elevations.

With the surface high off to our east Wednesday, we will see some
moderation in temperatures with highs closer to seasonal normals,
and it should remain dry.

Models generally agree another short wave will likely affect the
area sometime Wednesday night into early Thursday. It looks to have
very limited moisture available, but there is a chance for some
light rain and/or snow showers during this time frame.

Friday looks likely to be dry, but models are not in good agreement
for the end of the period. Right now, it looks like precipitation
may return in time the start of the weekend as another system
approaches, and current model thermal profiles suggest precipitation
would likely be primarily rain. However, forecast confidence is low
at the end of the period given the model solution spread and how far
out it is in time at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

MVFR cigs at TRI are expected to lift in the next hour or two, and
after that, VFR conditions are forecast at all sites through this
TAF period. Winds will be around 10 kt this afternoon at TRI, with
light winds elsewhere, turning from N-NW this morning to W-SW
this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 42 17 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 23 38 13 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 36 22 37 12 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 18 35 9 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

422
FXUS64 KMRX 182325
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Cold conditions are expected, especially tonight into Tuesday when
below 0 wind chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- First half of the week will be dry, with chances for rain and snow
again late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Currently another chilly day on tap with temperatures trying their
best to climb above the freezing mark as the mid/upper level
trough continues to swing it's way off to our east. As the system
continues to depart into Monday, another push of cold air arrives.
High pressure at the surface will build in from the west Sunday
night through Tuesday before sliding eastward by Wednesday. This stretch—from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday—will be dry but
notably cold, with daytime highs running about 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. Monday night will be the coldest period, with valley
lows ranging from around 10 degrees to the teens, and single digits
in the mountains. Persistent winds over higher terrain may drive
wind chills below zero at times.

By Wednesday, as the high shifts east, temperatures will begin to
moderate toward seasonal averages, and conditions should stay dry.

Most model guidance indicates another shortwave moving through
sometime Wednesday night into early Thursday. Moisture remains
limited, but a few light rain or snow showers are possible.

Friday appears dry, but model agreement deteriorates toward the end
of the forecast period. Current indications suggest precipitation
could return as the weekend begins, likely falling as predominantly
rain based on present thermal profiles. Confidence remains low this
far out due to significant model spread.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle with FEW clouds mainly
tomorrow. Winds begin to increase late tonight. Low level wind
shear may need to added to the TAFs later tonight with winds
around 30 to 35 knots possible around 2k feet in the early morning
hours. Westerly winds will become gusty tomorrow morning
especially near TRI with gusts up to 22 knots likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 42 18 40 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 39 14 36 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 22 37 13 36 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 34 10 31 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

498
FXUS64 KMRX 191110 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
610 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest
conditions Monday night into Tuesday when below zero wind
chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A low chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for
Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday into the
weekend, with a mixed bag of precipitation types possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

We start the period dry and cold as we remain under a broad upper
level eastern CONUS trough. A reinforcing shot of cold air will
push in behind a dry cold front Monday, and Monday night will be
the coldest of the week with valley lows ranging from around 10
degrees through the teens, and single digits common in the
mountains. Enough wind looks to persist over the mountains for
some below zero wind chill values at times Monday night into early
Tuesday. For Tuesday, high temperatures will be around 10 to 15
degrees below seasonal normals.

The center of the cold surface high will slide off to our east by
Wednesday, providing another dry day but with moderating
temperatures.

Models generally agree that a weak short wave and front will bring a
low chance for some light rain and snow showers in the Wednesday
night into Thursday time frame, although this system looks to have
very limited moisture to work with.

Models have been very inconsistent and uncertainty is high for the
latter periods, but there is general agreement that a system will
bring more precipitation to the area sometime in the
Friday/Saturday/Sunday time frame. Right now models suggest a mixed
bag of precip types, with both rain and snow possible, but given how
far out it still is as well as the poor model agreement and
consistency, we will need to monitor and wait for more clarity on
the details as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Winds will be the main aviation impact this period, becoming gusty
later this morning as winds aloft mix down to the surface, likely
in the 20-25 kt range at TYS and TRI. Can't rule out a brief gust
of 15-20 kt at CHA, but this should be rare. Winds will diminish
late in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 19 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 14 37 20 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 14 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 9 31 16 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

178
FXUS64 KMRX 192350
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest
conditions tonight into Tuesday morning when below zero wind
chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A low chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for
Wednesday night into Thursday. Minor snow accumulation possible
across the higher elevations of the mountains.

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday night into
the weekend with chances for rain, snow, and ice. High
uncertainty exists with the axis of heaviest precipitation and
precipitation types, but this system should be monitored closely
over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Currently, an anomalous upper-level ridge across the PacNW CONUS
is resulting in longwave troughing and colder than normal
temperatures across the Central and Eastern CONUS. This general
pattern is expected to continue throughout the week. With 850mb
temperatures around -9C to -10C tonight and 15 to 25 kt 850mb
winds, wind chill values across the higher elevations will be
around 0F to -5F above about 4000 ft elevation. Those hiking the
Appalachian Trail, or just hiking across the higher elevations,
should be prepared for very cold temperatures tonight and
throughout the week.

A quickly moving shortwave trough will bring some light
precipitation to the region on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Temperatures at 850mb will be right around -1C to +1C
with surface temperatures near freezing in the mountains to the
mid 30sF across the valley. Do not expect much precipitation with
this weak system, but some light rain or non-accumulating snow
will be possible across the northern valley with some light snow
totals of less than one inch across the higher elevations of the
mountains. This is a minor system, but it will bring a cold front
across the region that reinforces cold air for our region through
the end of the week.

By the weekend, there is an increasing probability of a winter
storm system to impact portions of the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians. The unanswered questions remain: the
strength of the storm system, the magnitude of precipitation, and
the temperature profile which will determine precipitation type.
In short: uncertainty is high and this forecast will likely chance
and continue to evolve over the coming days. This is still 5-6
days away. However, it is a good time to go ahead and prepare for
potential winter weather this Friday night through Sunday, along
with the potential for very cold temperatures. We are most
confident in very cold air moving into the region.

By Friday night, a strong upper-level 300mb 180kt jet streak will
be near the Ohio River Valley through the Mid-Atlantic placing a
broad area of weak upper divergence across the Southern Great
Plains through the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley through the
Southern Appalachians. A stationary Arctic cold front will be
located WSW/ENE across the Great Plains through the Southern
Appalachians with rain to the south, snow further north of the
front, and a mix of ice in between. Overrunning precipitation will
result in 12 to 18 hours of light to moderate precipitation
through Sunday morning with the bulk of the precipitation likely
during the day on Saturday and into Saturday night. The NBM
places a band of around 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent QPF
across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South where this stationary
Arctic frontal boundary sets up, but the exact location of where
this sets up is highly uncertain. This magnitude of QPF would
result in a relatively narrow band of significant winter weather.
Any small deviations of this axis to the north or south will have
drastic changes to the location of winter weather impacts. A lot
will likely change over the coming days, so please continue to
monitor the latest forecast updates over the week ahead as we
refine areas of likely impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

VRF conditions will continue. High clouds will clear out late
tonight. Winds will decrease late tonight and will be very light
and variable tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 19 41 23 52 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 15 36 21 52 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 14 36 20 49 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 11 31 17 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

877
FXUS64 KMRX 201112 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest
conditions tonight into Tuesday morning when below zero wind
chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for Wednesday
night into Friday. Minor snow accumulation will be possible
especially across the higher elevations of the mountains.

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday night into
the weekend with chances for rain, snow, and possibly ice. High
uncertainty exists with the axis of heaviest precipitation and
precipitation types, but this system should be monitored closely
over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Currently, longwave troughing is in place over the eastern CONUS
with colder than normal temperatures over our region. It will be dry
and quite cold tonight through Tuesday night, and will be especially
cold tonight into Tuesday. The cold air in place will combine with
enough wind to push wind chill values to below zero at times over
the higher elevations of the mountains tonight into early Tuesday.
High temperatures Tuesday will be around 10 to 15 degrees below
seasonal normals.

The center of the cold surface high will slide off
to our east by Wednesday, providing another dry day but with
moderating temperatures.

Models generally agree that a weak short wave and cold front will
bring a chance for some light precipitation in the Wednesday night
into Thursday time frame, although this system looks to have very
limited moisture to work with. Thermal profiles suggest rain
possibly changing to light snow showers or flurries before ending in
the valley, with a better chance of light snow showers over the
mountains. Light snow accumulations of less than one inch will be
possible across the higher elevations of the mountains with this
weak system. Another weak disturbance moving through the flow may
trigger additional light rain and snow showers Thursday night into
Friday.

By the weekend, there is an increasing probability of a significant
winter weather event affecting the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians. Models are still struggling with consistency and poor
agreement on the details, but are in better agreement that a nearly
stationary frontal boundary will be located across our region as a strengthening upper level jet induces a broad area of upper
divergence during the Friday night into Saturday night time frame.
Right now, it looks like a period of significant overrunning
precipitation will occur during the Friday night through Saturday
night time frame near and north of the front, with the bulk of the precipitation likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. There is
still a lot of uncertainty given the aforementioned model
disagreement and inconsistencies, as well as the fact that it is
still several days out. However, thermal profiles suggest a
significant portion of the precipitation will fall in the form of
snow, with very significant snow accumulations possible in a band
somewhere across our region although the location of the heaviest
snow band and whether or not it will be over our area is still
uncertain. Current NBM data shows the probability of exceeding 4
inches of snow during the 72 hours ending 7 PM Sunday is around 20
to 30 percent across our southern counties, then increasing up to
around 50 to 60 percent over our central and northern counties. A
lot will likely change over the coming days, so please continue to
monitor the latest forecast updates over the week ahead as we refine
areas of likely impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

No aviation impacts this period, clear skies and light winds are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 53 37 / 0 0 10 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 20 53 36 / 0 0 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 36 21 50 35 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 17 49 33 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

833
FXUS64 KMRX 202312
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
Appalachian region Saturday into Sunday is increasing. However,
it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain
unclear. This weekend's system should be monitored closely over
the next couple of days.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures
at/below freezing for at least a day or two. This will prolong
the effects of any winter weather, with power outages possible
as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Confidence continues to increase with regards to the potential for
a high impact winter weather event affecting the southeast United
States this weekend. As such, I'll devote nearly the entirety of
the forecast discussion to that event.

Strong, deep troughing will remain over much of the central and
eastern CONUS over the next several days, with quasi-zonal flow
in place across the Gulf coast. One impulse embedded in the upper
trough will drag a cold front into the region Wed night into Thu
with some light rain expected across the forecast area. Afterwards
a strong +1050mb surface high will drop out of Canada into the
northern plains on Friday, reinforcing the front across the region
and leading to some additional light precip on Friday possibly.
However the main show is Saturday into Sunday. A very strong jet
over the Ohio valley into the northeast, coupled with an upper low
ejecting east from southern California, will result in widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation across Tennessee and the
surrounding areas. Timing wise, models agree fairly well on the
bulk of the precipitation starting around daybreak Saturday and
continuing through Sunday morning before tapering off Sun
afternoon. Where there is still significant disagreement, revolves
around precip types and amounts. Some guidance indicates a warm
nose pushing north to the I-40 corridor while other guidance keeps
it south of the Tennessee/Georgia border. The former would support
significant icing in the south while central and northern areas
get a significant snowfall event. The latter would support snow
everywhere, with lighter totals further north and heavier amounts
along and slightly south of the I-40 corridor. At this point in
time, it's difficult to tell which scenario is more likely to play
out. What is pretty clear though is that a highly impactful winter
weather event seems set to play out across the southern
Appalachian region Sat and Sun.

Regarding totals and precip types, it is worth noting that PWAT
values for this event are well above climatological averages.
That's significant since it's more likely to see unseasonably high
PWATs in warm, heavy rain events versus cold winter weather
events. Given the thermal profiles snow ratios aren't going to be
crazy high, so I would expect the snow to be a heavier/wetter
type. This coupled with the potential of some icing somewhere
means that power outages will be a distinct possibility.

Lastly, whatever falls on Sat/Sun isn't going anywhere in quick
fashion. Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday are going to be
quite cold and I undercut NBM guidance a bit on Sun/Mon to account
for temperatures being impacted by whatever snowpack is present.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Clouds will
begin to increase late and a rain shower may arrive by the very
end of the period, but no precipitation in the TAFS for now. Winds
will be light into Wednesday morning, then will increase to near
10kts from the southwest Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 24 53 38 52 / 0 30 60 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 53 37 52 / 0 20 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 21 50 35 50 / 0 30 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 17 50 33 48 / 0 20 40 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

423
FXUS64 KMRX 211111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A jump in temperatures today and Thursday. Light precipitation
event tonight into Thursday that will mostly fall as rain, but
possibly a mix over higher terrain.

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
Appalachian region Saturday into Sunday is increasing. However,
it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain
unclear. This weekend's system should be monitored closely over
the next couple of days.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures
at/below freezing for at least a day or two. This will prolong
the effects of any winter weather, with power outages possible
as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Early in the day Wednesday should for the most part be quite
nice, with valley temperatures reaching the low 50s. High pressure
centered over the Appalachians at this time will move east,
allowing SWly flow to aid in temperature rises. Thursday will be
about the same temperature-wise, but flow reverts back to the
west. We will see some precipitation move in later Wednesday, into
Thursday coinciding with a cold front separate from the system
this weekend. This will primarily be rain for much of us, but as
temperatures fall into Friday, a rain/snow mix is possible in the
higher terrain with this sort of appetizer system that'll precede
the one this coming weekend grabbing everyone's attention. A
couple of forecast soundings across SWVA depict potential warm
nosing aloft, dry air within the dendritic growth zone, and sfc
temperatures near or above freezing. QPF so far is anywhere from a
hundredth of an inch to near two tenths.

Friday will be post-frontal and what will begin a rather long
period of below normal temperatures through the forecast time-
frame, with potentially no sign of relief until early next week.
Although, if the ground is completely covered in a mix of wintery precipitation, that could impact just how warm it can get.

Following the Thursday frontal passage, it sets the stage for
what could be a long-duration winter event this weekend. The
frontal boundary possibly stalls somewhere to our south, meanwhile
at the same time, strong Arctic high pressure exceeding 1050 mb
dives south from western/central Canada. Once the stationary
boundary exits and cold high pressure is centered over the western
Great Lakes late Friday, what appears to be multiple low pressure
centers form off of the Baja coast and near the Four Corners
region underneath a closed low aloft. Separate from that, a
boundary forms along the Gulf coast. The aforementioned closed low
becomes absorbed into the mean flow and shifts eastward, the
upper support needed for possibly multiple days of precipitation,
as well as a very strong jet to our north.

The caveats/challenges with this event: for one, we are still far
out, therefore, things are still changing with each model run. The
18z NAM ends Saturday morning for example, so not through the
entire event. The beginning and end of the event keep shifting.
The degree of cold air, strength/location of the Arctic high isn't
entirely known which could affect the rain snow line. The axis of
heaviest liquid precipitation could be anywhere from GA to across
our region, or to our north. Just how much liquid precipitation
keeps changing as well. Another localized type feature to watch
out for is the inverted trough and just how strong that could get
paired with the strength and location of the surface high. As
newer model runs have populated in the last couple of hours such
as the Canadian and UKMET, consensus is trending towards warmer
air aloft shifting further north, possibly to the TN and VA state
line, but this will need close monitoring. Needless to say, rain,
freezing rain, and snowfall amounts will likely increase or
decrease once we get closer and the aforementioned features come
more in line. There is still too much uncertainty to say for
certain where the changeover could be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

The main aviation impacts will be late in this forecast period. SW
winds may become gusty this afternoon at TYS, in the 20-25 kt
range. In the evening, LLWS will be mentioned as surface winds
drop but winds aloft remain 30-40 kt. Lower cigs may spread in
during the evening, initially at VFR levels, then dropping to
MVFR after 06Z with light showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 39 53 37 / 40 60 30 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 38 53 34 / 30 40 20 30
Oak Ridge, TN 51 35 52 32 / 40 40 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 34 49 29 / 20 40 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

267
FXUS64 KMRX 212329
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A jump in temperatures today and Thursday. Light precipitation
event tonight into Thursday that will mostly fall as rain, but
possibly a mix over higher terrain.

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
Appalachian region Saturday into Sunday is increasing. However,
it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain
unclear. This weekend's system should be monitored closely over
the next couple of days.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures
at/below freezing for at least a day or two. This will prolong
the effects of any winter weather, with power outages possible
as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

I can't stress enough that the forecast for this weekend
continues to have quite a bit of uncertainty associated with it. I
also cannot stress enough that if the worst case scenario unfolds,
the impacts of this storm are going to be quite bad. The trends
over the last day or so in model guidance have favored a northward
shift of the heavy snow axis, but this has also introduced a
northward jog of the mixed precipitation (sleet and freezing rain)
transition zone. Couple this with the significant QPF that's
forecast, and again this could prove to be a very high impact
winter storm. As such, I would advise anyone reading to continue
to monitor future forecasts for any changes that might occur.

The overall setup remains largely the same. A closed upper low off
the Baja will eject ENE Friday into Saturday, interacting with a
shortwave dropping southeast from Montana and a very cold, +1050mb
surface high over the upper midwest, to produce widespread
precipitation across the southeast Saturday into Sunday. I have
fairly high confidence in onset timing, with most all guidance
moving precipitation into East Tennessee during the mid morning
hours, perhaps by daybreak though in the southern plateau and
Tennessee valley areas though. But that's about where the high
confidence ends.

As mentioned, the trends have favored a northward shift in the
heavy snow axis and mixed ptype zones. This is driven by a more
pronounced H85 low tracking from the Ozarks in Arkansas,
northeastward into Kentucky and the Ohio valley Saturday into
Sunday and the track of the associated surface low moving
northeast through Georgia into the Carolinas. The consensus now
shows the H85 freezing line lifting north of Knoxville by late Sat afternoon/Sat evening, which is a proxy for where your transition
of snow to mixed ptypes will be. What this leaves us with is
roughly a 40 percent chance of greater than 6 inches of snow in
our northern plateau and up into our western Virginia counties
like Lee and Wise, with near zero chances for snowfall in that
range as far south as the I-40 corridor. Meanwhile, the odds for
notable ice accumulations in the central and southern Tennessee
valley have gone up substantially. This seems reasonable based on
current guidance, which has trended drier with surface dewpoints
(indicating lower wet bulb temperatures and the likelihood that
through evaporative cooling processes we can keep surface
temperatures at/below freezing through the day Saturday) during
the day Saturday despite a warm nose aloft. While there remains
considerable uncertainty, which I'll address momentarily, there
seems to be enough concern for the potential impacts of this
system to go ahead and hoist up a Winter Storm Watch for Saturday
and Sunday for the entire forecast area this afternoon.

Let's talk uncertainty. What is the bust potential for this
event?

If the northward/warmer trend continues, then we could see
snowfall totals in our northern areas continue to dwindle, and may
also mean that a sizable portion of our forecast area transitions
to an all rain event at some point Saturday evening. Whether the
northward trend continues, abates, or whether there's a reversion
to a colder, more southern track, remains an unknown. I would say
the odds do not favor a southern/colder adjustment based on trends
in the upper level pattern over the CONUS, but we just don't
know. Additionally, the current forecast reflects over 2" of
liquid equivalent QPF Sat and Sun across much of our CWA. We do
not have a good handle on how much of this is going to go towards
snow, sleet, freezing rain, or possibly rain. If these QPF amounts
are correct, and some of the more troubling ice forecasts are
near accurate, this storm gets into February 2015 ice storm
territory real quick. But if the QPF amounts are right and the
warming trend continues, then it's a different story.

Again, I would like to reiterate that there is still a lot of
uncertainty with this system. And frankly there's still plenty of
time for the forecast to change. Please continue to monitor the
forecast for any changes.

Beyond the weekend storm, cold air is going to be in place with
lows in the single digits Monday night. Whatever falls is likely
to remain in place for a least a day or two. And if the icing
scenario plays out, power outages could be a concern with the cold
weather in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light rain is moving in, and will continue for the next several
hours before gradually diminishing later tonight. Expect
conditions to dip to MVFR all sites and possibly even IFR, with
the highest probability of IFR conditions looking to be at CHA
overnight. In addition, winds 2 kft above the surface look
marginal for LLWS, and have kept the LLWS in for several hours
tonight at both CHA and TRI where the surface winds should be
light. Conditions will improve to VFR all sites during the morning
hours and then continue to the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 53 38 46 / 70 20 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 53 34 43 / 50 10 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 35 52 33 42 / 50 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 49 29 42 / 40 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

816
FXUS64 KMRX 221120 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- One last day of warmer temperatures today with light
precipitation exiting to the southeast.

- Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern
Appalachian region Saturday into Monday is increasing. However,
it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain unclear.
There is also the possibility that some will see only rain or a
combination of rain and freezing rain. This weekend's system
will need monitored closely.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures
at/below freezing during the day with some very cold mornings.
This will prolong the effects of any winter weather, with power
outages possible as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Discussion on the weekend system starts with the third paragraph.

A cold front lays to our west with light precipitation mostly
along the mountains now. Only a few hundredths of an inch, at
best, have been recorded across the forecast area last night.
This weaker system will exit the region around mid-morning today.
Today will also be the last day of 50s for highs across much of
the forecast area through possibly the rest of the month.

For tomorrow, northern parts of the forecast area will most
likely remain dry up until the strong weekend storm arrives. High
pressure tries to punch in on the backside with nearly zonal flow
aloft following the shortwave responsible for the Wednesday
system. It's possible that whatever precipitation reaches into the
forecast area Friday, will mix with other forms of precipitation
type, especially across higher elevations. Surface temperatures
will be colder Friday. However, this is a window of warmer air
aloft trying to be replaced by colder air to the north.

Like it has been stressed for almost every new forecast run, we
just want to re-iterate that this forecast is very difficult and
has changed from run to run. Consensus still trends warmer, but
will get into that in a bit. On-set could be early or mid
Saturday, depending on many factors; models still vary on this. A
later arrival and peak of the event have trended out in time.
Sometime overnight Sunday or Monday morning is when the core of
the precip shield should be mostly to our east with some wrap
around possible on the back-side.

So, what is the set-up for this? Surface high pressure is expected
to dive down from western/central Canada. Compared to 24 hours
ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it
had in previous runs. Longwave troughing sinks south across the
country, meanwhile, a Baja upper low/closed low will eventually
eject eastward once it phases with the mean flow. Headed later
into Friday, a low center over the Four Corners region forms with
a couple of other low centers over northern Mexico region. A front
also arcs along the Gulf coast. Later Saturday an additional low
center forms near the FL Panhandle, as well as another off of the
Carolina coast. How the high pressure to our north and the Gulf
and Carolina lows interact, is pretty much the end all be all of
just what impacts we will see in regards to precipitation type.
The high and troughing will send in the colder air, however a
strengthening low to our south will send overrunning air out of
the southerly direction, or simply, much warmer air. Although
confidence has been severely low up until this point, the
confidence in higher snowfall amounts is surely lessening with
what seems to be a weaker surface high, therefore much warmer
temperatures at the surface, and signals for fairly strong
southerly low level winds. High wind potential or mountain wave
enhancement will need monitored especially during the Saturday
night time-frame. The NAM and RRFS runs show near 70 kts of
southerly low level flow. That would bring strong winds and gusts
to the mountains and foothills.

Overall, things could still change, BUT surface temperatures have
increased each forecast run for Saturday and Sunday highs, to be
precise. We just haven't gotten into ranges or specifics on
snowfall totals, for example, because of just how much this
forecast has changed. Amounts were essentially slashed from
yesterday afternoon's totals. I believe the increasing unknown or
challenge will be the question of freezing rain or rain and how
much. Storm total QPF range in the area of nearly 2 inches to
over 3 inches. In conclusion, the rain/snow line has shifted
north, therefore, snowfall amounts are decreasing from south to
north, with increasing chances of freezing rain and rain with each
new forecast run so far. Counties bordering Kentucky and West
Virginia are trending towards mostly snow with the greatest
amounts of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Clouds will be broken at MVFR levels for the next few hours, then
scatter by noon as a front exits the area. Winds will shift to a N
to W direction behind the front, but remain light. VFR conditions
are expected for the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 37 48 27 / 30 20 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 33 44 24 / 10 10 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 51 32 44 23 / 0 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 28 43 19 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

476
FXUS64 KMRX 222350
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Friday remains dry with cooler temperatures across the region.

- A significant winter storm impacting the Southern Appalachians
and Tennessee Valley in likely Saturday through Sunday. However,
it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain unclear.
Most areas will see a complex wintry mix with mostly snow/sleet
across northern areas and mostly sleet/freezing rain/rain across
southern areas.

- Wintry weather will result in significant travel impacts Saturday
evening through Sunday morning with localized power outages
possible due to the ice accumulation.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures
at/below freezing during the day on Monday with some very cold
temperatures by Tuesday morning. This will prolong the effects
of any winter weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Southern
Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, and much of the south and central
CONUS, through the weekend. We are currently in a colder, longwave
troughing pattern across the Eastern CONUS with ridging across the
eastern Pacific. A northern stream shortwave will begin to phase
with an ejecting southern vort max on Sunday resulting in a quickly intensifying surface low pressure system that will move northeast
across the East Coast.

Strong high pressure to the north keeps us dry today and Friday, but increasing southerly flow aloft will result in increased cloud cover
late Friday into Saturday morning. As isentropic lift increases
across the region, light precipitation will be possible Saturday
morning, but dry air at the surface will limit any accumulating snow
or sleet. By the afternoon, the surface becomes saturated with
wintry precipitation expected to begin accumulating across the
region. To begin, areas near Interstate 40 and northward are
expected to have the entire atmospheric column below freezing which
will result in some potential snow to start on Saturday afternoon.
As southerly flow and WAA continues to warm temperatures between
850mb and 800mb, temperatures increase to around +2 to +3 degC by
late Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will result in a lot of
sleet and a transition to freezing rain across the region. In
addition, the southerly flow and subsidence along the western slopes
of the Appalachians will result in warming surface temperatures
across the western slopes of the mountains with areas around
Gatlinburg to Newport to Greeneville likely warming up above
freezing pretty quickly on Saturday night. This will limit ice
accumulation for these areas.

Across the valley and plateau, there are several variables that
will determine total snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulation.
The first variable is the cold air aloft. Most of the snow will be
limited to areas near the Kentucky state line, and snow totals
will likely be compacted by sleet and freezing rain mixing in on
Saturday night. Further south, sleet and freezing rain will be the
predominant precipitation types on Saturday afternoon and night.
The second uncertain variable is the warm nose temperature around
800mb overnight; It will be near the sleet/freezing rain cutoff.
We likely get a mix of both sleet and freezing rain for much of
central East Tennessee, but depending on the exact mix, we may
have significantly more ice accretion due to freezing rain or
significantly more sleet (and less ice accretion). In addition,
the third variable is how cold are surface temperatures and where
do we wet bulb? Model guidance has significant variability in dew
points ahead of the precipitation, but based on the consensus of
most guidance, we should be cold enough in the mid 20s to get a
decent amount of ice accumulation before temperatures begin to
warm into Sunday morning.

Overall, a large portion of the region will likely see a trace to
a half-inch of sleet and one-quarter to one- half inch of ice
accumulation. Southern areas near the Georgia state line may only
see a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice before the transition
to rain. The caveat across the south is the higher elevations
around Chattanooga such as Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain,
Lookout Mountain, and surrounding portions of the southern plateau
may see higher ice totals up to around 0.5 inch. Still, even
the lower amounts would cause significant travel impacts on
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This forecast is likely
to change as we continue to refine the forecast with the most
recent observations tonight and tomorrow, so please continue to
follow the latest updates. Because of the uncertainty in
precipitation types and amounts, we will continue with the Winter
Storm Watch to message the risk of significant winter weather
hazards, and we will plan on upgrades to warnings or advisories
tonight or tomorrow when we are within 24 to 36 hours of the event
beginning.

On Sunday afternoon, the main 850mb low will be to our west with WAA
finally warming most, if not all, areas above freezing. Temperatures
will likely be slower to warm on Sunday morning across the valley
compared to what deterministic models indicate because of the cold,
dense air entrenched across the valley. WAA should finally win out
by the afternoon across the valley, but it will take some time. By
Sunday night, northwest flow returns with strong CAA and very cold
air arriving through the night and on Monday. We may continue to see
some orographic snowfall or rime ice across the northeast Tennessee
mountains through Monday morning, but accumulations should be light.

This very cold airmass will result in temperatures 20 to 25 degrees
below normal on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning,
temperatures drop down into the single digits for most locations
with temperatures near or below zero across the higher elevations.
Wind chill values across the higher terrain are forecast to be in
the -5F to -15F range; however, calm winds across the lower
elevations should mitigate the wind chill risk. Tuesday morning will
be frigid across the region, though.

As we move into mid-week, max temperatures begin to moderate but
remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front will bring a reinforcing cold airmass by late
next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Dry with VFR can be expected through the TAF period. Once westerly
winds turn calm at TRI, winds at all sites will generally be from
the NNEly direction. Gusts near 20KT possible Friday afternoon.
Varying clouds and height through Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 48 28 38 / 10 10 10 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 46 25 36 / 10 10 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 31 45 23 34 / 0 0 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 43 19 35 / 0 10 0 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

164
FXUS64 KMRX 231148
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Today will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures.

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily
Sunday PM into Sunday. Confidence is still limited on where the
heaviest precipitation and duration of frozen precipitation will
occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning. All types of
precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are
expected.

- The heaviest snow accumulations (3 inches or more) are most
likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky border and in southwest
Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are
most likely along the Cumberland Plateau, northeast Tennessee,
the mountains, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow
accumulations will be more limited further south with ice
accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern
Valley.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with
highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or
falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Currently, broad troughing is in place across the eastern U.S. with
an impressive 1,050mb Arctic High moving down from Canada into the
Northern Plains. A closed low is also noted off the Baja California
Coast. Dry and cool conditions are expected to continue today with
this initial setup. However, the pattern will quickly change as the
closed low moves onshore in the southwest with the jet strengthening
to its south. The jet to our north will strengthen as well,
increasing southerly 850mb flow, upper divergence, and isentropic
lift. An eventual surface low will develop in the northern Gulf and
track up the East Coast towards Sunday and Monday.

Saturday morning, northeasterly flow will remain in place at the
surface as the Arctic High shifts eastward with 850mb temperatures
beginning at or below freezing across the whole region. Based on the
first run of several high-res model guidance, more significant dry
air is being noted across the region Saturday morning into the early afternoon. This brings attention to lessened precipitation chances
during the day, especially during the morning hours. Throughout the
day, southerly 850mb winds will gradually increase to 30 and 40 kts
and beyond, leading to a northward shift in the warm nose. The focus
for initial precipitation is generally along and north of I-40 by
early afternoon, which would fall in the form of primarily snow with potentially some sleet, depending on the northward extent of the
warm nose. It is not until Saturday evening into Saturday night when precipitation spreads throughout the region. The strong southerly
850mb flow will pull the warm nose entirely north of the region,
leading to melting of snow before it reaches the ground. The
question continues to be how long places, especially in the Valley
and foothills, stay below freezing. Based on the latest data, places
in the southern Valley and the foothills (Monroe to County) will see
the shortest window of freezing rain. For southern areas, this will
be due to further proximity from northern cold air, and the
foothills will be due to strong downsloping. Interstate 40 and 81
certainly delineate lesser ice accumulations to its south vs more
significant accumulations (over 0.25 inches) to the north. These
significant accumulations also look likely along the southern
Plateau because of earlier onset and better access to colder air to
the west. Snow and sleet accumulations have also trended slightly
upward for places north of Interstates 40 and 81 because of this
initially drier air and slightly slower warm nose progression.

By the day on Sunday, 850mb flow will become more westerly but
increase to 60 kts or greater, leading to even stronger winds in the
mountains and broader WAA, turning precipitation back to primarily
rain. In addition to WAA, this will also lead to better moisture
transport and even heavier rainfall. By Sunday night, a front ahead
of another Arctic High will move through the region, leading to
significant CAA and a transition of lingering precipitation to all
snow. Depending on how long moisture remains, additional light
accumulations are likely, especially in the northern half of the
region. Very cold temperatures dropping well into the teens and even
single digits can be expected with the lingering MSLP gradient
producing winds and even lower wind chills. Moisture may linger
enough with northwesterly flow to keep chances for snow showers in
the mountains on Monday. Otherwise, the bigger story will be very
cold temperatures area-wide on Monday, likely struggling to get out
of the mid 20s for many. Lower wind chills are also possible. By
Monday night into Tuesday morning, the Arctic High will become set
up to our south with subsidence leading to extremely cold low
temperatures. For any places that have snowfall, values below 0 are
likely. Afterwards, general troughing and northwesterly flow remain
in place aloft with weak WAA helping temperatures rise at least
above freezing for most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Dry VFR TAFs through the period, though clouds will begin to
thicken late in the period at KCHA as the forecast winter storm
approaches. A few gusty winds at TYS and CHA under mediocre mixing
today, gusts to 20 knots in generally northerly flow. Winds
around 10-15 knots to persist into the night. Lighter winds at
KTRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 28 39 32 / 0 20 70 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 25 36 30 / 0 10 80 100
Oak Ridge, TN 45 23 34 29 / 0 10 80 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 19 37 27 / 0 0 70 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

704
FXUS64 KMRX 232342
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
642 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures.

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily
Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation
(rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected.

- The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or
locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky
state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice
accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the
Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East
Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow
accumulations will be more limited further south with ice
accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern
Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and
ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with
highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or
falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

We are upgrading the Winter Storm Watch this morning. An Ice Storm
Warning will now be in effect for SW NC and areas of southeast and
central East Tennessee generally along and west of the Interstate
75 corridor and along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor.
Significant ice accretion is expected for these areas with most
locations receiving 0.25 to 0.5 inch of ice. A Winter Storm
Warning is in effect for northern portions of East Tennessee
through SW VA where a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is
expected. The foothills of the mountains will see significant
downslope winds and warming which will limit ice accretion in
these areas, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
these areas. Ice accretion for the advisory area will be mostly
0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice with locally higher amounts further into
the valley away from the mountain foothills.

In addition, we have added a High Wind Warning for the foothills
of the mountains. A 50+ kt LLJ is forecast to be across the area
on Saturday night and Sunday. With strong ducting and stable air,
mountain wave winds are expected in the immediate vicinity of the
mountains.

Windy conditions may exacerbate power outage and tree
damage concerns across portions of the southern Cumberland
Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain, and
any higher ridgetops within the Ice Storm Warning on Saturday
night as wind gusts across ridgetops increase to 30 to 40 mph with
one-half inch of ice coating surfaces.

JB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Troughing across the Eastern CONUS will continue to result in
cooler than normal conditions into Saturday. Ahead of an
approaching system, southwest flow increases aloft with isentropic
lift. Clouds increase tonight with precipitation beginning by
Saturday afternoon. Virga is likely ahead of actual precipitation
at the surface because of the very dry, cold air near the surface.
By Saturday afternoon, precipitation is forecast to be making it
to the surface across the entire region with most areas wet
bulbing below freezing. This will result in an onset of sleet/snow
generally north of Interstate 40 with freezing rain south of
Interstate 40. As the warm nose aloft continues to increase, the
freezing rain will spread northward across most of the area. This
will result in significant accumulations of a wintry mix and ice
across the area. Lighter ice accumulation is expected across the
western slopes of the Appalachians due to downslope warming.
Please see the Winter Storm Warning, Ice Storm Warning, and Winter
Weather Advisory for details. Hazardous travel is expected
Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

With a strong pressure gradient and 50+ kt LLJ increasing on
Saturday night through Sunday, mountain wave high winds are
becoming increasingly likely for the higher elevations of the
western foothills of the Appalachians. We will also likely see
some breezy conditions across the southern plateau and higher
elevations ridge tops, when combined with ice accumulations within
the Ice Storm Warning area, will increase the risk of tree damage
and power outages.

We become warm sectored across the entire area on Sunday afternoon
with all areas warming up above freezing. This will result in all
rain across the region by Sunday afternoon, and this will also
likely help melt some of the ice and wintry mix accumulation.
Colder air returns quickly on Sunday night with black ice being a
hazardous across the entire region by Monday morning as
temperatures drop into the teens.

We remain cold this week with low temperatures in the single
digits and near zero by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be 20
to 25 degrees below normal. While temperatures "warm" slightly
mid-week and temperatures try to get above freezing on Wednesday,
another cold front passes across the region with a reinforcing
bout of cold air returning late next week. Frigid arctic air will
be the norm during the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected to continue
overnight tonight and into Saturday morning. Northeasterly winds
and increasing clouds between 5,000 and 15,000 feet are expected.
Heading throughout the day, precipitation will increase,
especially in the afternoon hours. Snow, possibly mixed with
sleet, is expected initially, but then a transition to sleet and
then freezing rain will occur. Reductions to MVFR or less are
expected, especially at CHA and TYS. The same is expected at TRI
but likely after the end of the TAF period. Also, strong winds a
few thousand feet above the ground will lead to strong LLWS
conditions. This was included only at CHA for the time being
because of the current timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 38 30 45 / 10 80 100 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 36 30 47 / 0 90 100 100
Oak Ridge, TN 22 34 27 44 / 10 90 100 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 36 27 45 / 0 80 100 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-
Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Roane-
Sequatchie.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-
Scott TN-Sullivan-Union.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday
for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-
Johnson-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
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068
FXUS64 KMRX 241149
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
649 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily
around mid-day today through tomorrow (Sunday) night. All types
of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are
expected.

- The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or
locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky
state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice
accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the
Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East
Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow
accumulations will be more limited further south with ice
accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern
Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and
ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with
highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or
falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The highly anticipated impactful almost country-wide winter storm
has formed to the west and will continue to strengthen as it
shifts eastward this morning. Troughing encompasses the entire
country with a closed upper low off of the Baja coast. This will
eventually phase with the flow when it swings up into Texas late
tonight. Additional pulses within the flow will sweep down from
Canada, bringing much lower heights aloft overhead early next
week. It will feel very much like winter with much below normal
temperatures persisting through the week due to troughing locked
in overhead and resurges of Arctic air sweeping down from Canada.

Though models show the initial shield of precipitation moving in
later this morning, the challenge to start will be dry air at the
surface. Once that is overcome, expect chances of precipitation to
increase throughout the day today. There won't be much of a
diurnal curve for some locations today with temperatures falling
at this time and not getting too much above that for the
afternoon. Many will start as snow mixed with other forms of
frozen precipitation, as air aloft and down to the surface will
briefly support mostly snow. As the inverted trough strengthens
and a warm nose aloft builds in from the south, is when things
begin to change and become more complicated. The later we get into
today, the flow from the south will strengthen. Coinciding with
that flow, winds over the Southern Appalachians will become
stronger. To further complicate things, descending air over the
mountains due in part to a strong wedge on the other side, will
warm those closest to the mountains, limiting the frozen
precipitation variety. We are fairly confident in that happening
with the the latest NAM still showing greater than 60 KT low level
flow. This has been persistent for days. Our hazards issued and
latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser
winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81
corridor. A portion of this area doesn't meet minor impacts,
even.

One potential hazard that may not be thought much of is the total
liquid precipitation from this storm and pure heavy rain
potential. What has generally been consistent much of the week is
total liquid precipitation of around 2 inches or more. Upslope
areas of parts of the plateau and from the GSMNP and south, depict
the potential of near 3 inches of liquid equivalent or more.
Though a lot of our area is in a drought, heavy precipitation in
a short period of time could pose some flooding impacts. WPC's ERO
from yesterday afternoon circles an area of MRGL risk of flash
flooding across our southern TN counties into Cherokee and Clay
counties in NC.

The time line of greatest impact will be near the start of the
system to around early Sunday when it will be coldest and frozen
precipitation chances the greatest. Thankfully with a consistent
warming trend being forecast Sunday, precipitation should change
over to rain during the day. However, the backside of the system
may change back to the frozen precipitation type Sunday night
into Monday morning when temperatures are expected to drastically
fall. This, paired with what fell earlier in the event, could
pose added hazardous travel early Monday. Highs are generally
expected to stay below 30. The system ends with time Monday,
finishing off over the higher terrain.

Caveats - There is still the chance that some will end up with
potentially less freezing rain accretion, for example, if
temperatures budge a bit a certain way, either due to southerly
flow, downslope warming, or with a combination of struggling cold
air. Recent CAMs try to show warmer temperatures than forecast
even later today. This would be a good thing to end up with more
rain than freezing rain. Snowfall totals haven't really
drastically changed in the last couple of forecasts with the
greatest amounts along the KY and WV borders, but like mentioned,
what could easily change is the amount of freezing rain or even
sleet. A small change in conditions or a certain factor from the
surface to above could mean everything.

As briefly touched in the first paragraph, cold and mostly dry
will dominate the rest of the week with strong high pressure
developing over Texas and remaining focused over the southeast
following that. Weak systems will be sent down with the shortwaves
from Canada with possible chances for wintery precipitation
for the northern part of the CWA mid to late week. Otherwise, dry
and cold. Very cold wind chills will become a threat with any
winds and gusts throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Messy period already beginning with ice pellets observed in
Chattanooga. Recent observations indicate frozen precipitation is
advancing up the TN valley currently, with radar indicating it
will reach the Tri-Cities over the next 2 hours. CIGs will
steadily deteriorate over the course of the day, with both VIS and
CIGs making trips to IFR territory. A transition to rain will
occur from south to north today and tonight, though higher
elevations will maintain FZRA longer. This evening, the LLJ will
strengthen steadily and bring LLWS over the region, especially
late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 31 45 18 / 80 100 100 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 30 44 18 / 80 100 100 60
Oak Ridge, TN 34 29 43 16 / 90 100 100 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 28 45 18 / 80 100 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7
PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-
Hamilton-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-
Roane-Sequatchie.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
for Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
Johnson-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-
Sullivan-Unicoi-Union.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
East Polk-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


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