181
FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as a wintry mix.

- Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late
Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited
accumulations at most.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a frontal boundary is moving into the Plateau.
Isentropic lift in advance of the boundary is producing areas of
light rain, areas of fog and cloudy sky. As the frontal boundary
moves across the region late this afternoon/early evening, drier
air will move into the region with an erosion of the clouds and
fog. Sky will become mostly clear by early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds.

For Monday evening through Tuesday, a northern stream short-wave
diving into the central/southern plains will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. Strong jet
dynamics will move across the region during the morning hours
enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a boundary over the
region. Widespread rain with amounts from 1/2-3/4 inch southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee to 1 to 1 1/2 inches across the
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.

REFS and RRFS-a show a pocket of freezing rain is likely near the
northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee stateline. The
communities of Trade, Mountain City, Shadey Valley may experience
a period of icing early Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting
eastern sections of Russell and Washington county as well.

Another impact is a possible mountain wave high wind event across
the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills early Tuesday
morning. HREF and REFS probabilities show decent chance of 40-45
mph gusts.

As the system moves east, deterministic and ensemble probabilities
show the cold air advection changing rain to a wintry mix for the
northern Plateau into the higher elevations of southwest Virginia
and northeast/central sections of the far east Tennessee
mountains. Light snow/ice accumulations are possible, generally 1
inch or less of snow.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Conditions will be improving at all sites over the next few hours
as a front moves through, followed by a drier air mass. A return
to VFR conditions is expected at all sites by 06Z, along with a
shift of winds to a northerly direction. VFR conditions persist
through tomorrow, although low VFR to MVFR cigs may return to CHA
near the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS




--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

181
FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as a wintry mix.

- Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late
Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited
accumulations at most.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a frontal boundary is moving into the Plateau.
Isentropic lift in advance of the boundary is producing areas of
light rain, areas of fog and cloudy sky. As the frontal boundary
moves across the region late this afternoon/early evening, drier
air will move into the region with an erosion of the clouds and
fog. Sky will become mostly clear by early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds.

For Monday evening through Tuesday, a northern stream short-wave
diving into the central/southern plains will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. Strong jet
dynamics will move across the region during the morning hours
enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a boundary over the
region. Widespread rain with amounts from 1/2-3/4 inch southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee to 1 to 1 1/2 inches across the
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.

REFS and RRFS-a show a pocket of freezing rain is likely near the
northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee stateline. The
communities of Trade, Mountain City, Shadey Valley may experience
a period of icing early Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting
eastern sections of Russell and Washington county as well.

Another impact is a possible mountain wave high wind event across
the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills early Tuesday
morning. HREF and REFS probabilities show decent chance of 40-45
mph gusts.

As the system moves east, deterministic and ensemble probabilities
show the cold air advection changing rain to a wintry mix for the
northern Plateau into the higher elevations of southwest Virginia
and northeast/central sections of the far east Tennessee
mountains. Light snow/ice accumulations are possible, generally 1
inch or less of snow.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Conditions will be improving at all sites over the next few hours
as a front moves through, followed by a drier air mass. A return
to VFR conditions is expected at all sites by 06Z, along with a
shift of winds to a northerly direction. VFR conditions persist
through tomorrow, although low VFR to MVFR cigs may return to CHA
near the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

180
FXUS64 KMRX 011135
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
635 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area tonight through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as freezing rain Tuesday night. Minor impacts
possible.


- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across some of our northern areas. Limited
accumulations at most. Little to no impacts.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. Mostly sunny early, with increasing high and mid-
level clouds through the day.

For tonight through Tuesday, a northern stream short- wave will
dive into the central/southern plains and will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. This will
result in strong jet dynamics that will enhancing the fronto-
genetic forcing along a boundary over the region.

Rain:

The HREF ensemble means show between 0.5 and 0.75 inches of
rain across northeast TN and southwest VA and 0.75 to 1 inch across
the southern TN valley and southwest NC. The REFS means show similar
values across our northeastern areas but lower amounts, around 0.5
to 0.75, across the southern areas. Overall, I'd expect a high
chance that most areas see at least 0.5 inches and a moderate chance
to see 0.75 inches. Some isolated locations could see around 1 to
1.25 inches.

Winter:

The REFS and HREF both a show that a pocket of freezing rain
is likely near the northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee
state line. The communities of Trade, Mountain City, and Shadey
Valley may experience a period of icing from roughly 10 PM tonight
through 7 AM Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting eastern sections
of Russell and Washington county as well. Freezing rain amounts
from a few hundredths of an inch up to a tenth of an inch are
expected. Minor impacts are possible, especially across elevated
surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.

As the system moves east, and colder air builds in from the
northwest, deterministic and ensemble probabilities continue to
show rain changing to sleet, then snow, Tuesday morning into early
afternoon. This is mainly across the northern Plateau, along the
TN/KY state line, and portions of southwest VA and the far northeast
east Tennessee mountains. Light snow accumulations are possible,
generally 1 inch or less. The bulk of the precip will be done by
Tuesday afternoon but light snowshowers will likely linger across
the east TN mountains Tuesday night due to orographic upslope flow.
Little to no impacts expected from the snow.

Wind:

This system will bring another round of gusty winds, and a
probable low-end mountain wave, across the east TN mountains and
foothills. Models are showing borderline Wind Advisory criteria.
There is a moderate to high chance that a few isolated locations
see wind gusts from 40 to 45 mph. The question is, how widespread
will the advisory level gusts be. For this reason, will hold off
on issuing a Wind Advisory with this forecast package until
another round of Hi-Res model data comes in. The most likely
timeframe for these higher winds would be from 00Z Tuesday through
12Z Tuesday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the first half of the TAF
cycle. Increasing low level clouds and rain chances are expected
late this evening into the overnight period, generally around
2Z-6Z timeframe. MVFR to IFR cigs will become predominant
alongside reduced visibility the activity spreads across the
region. A southerly LLJ will also amplify across the region during
this time frame. Have included a period of LLWS as latest
soundings suggest amplified flow as low as 925mb will promote
LLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 40 46 27 / 40 100 40 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 38 45 26 / 20 100 80 0
Oak Ridge, TN 47 37 43 25 / 20 100 60 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 36 43 24 / 0 100 90 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

300
FXUS64 KMRX 011830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Gusty mountain winds and widespread rain arrive tonight through
Tuesday morning. Far northeast mountains, including higher
elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as light freezing
rain tonight. Minimal to no localized impacts expected. Only a
cold rain expected for most areas.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across higher elevations of East Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Limited accumulations at most. Little to no
impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Issued a Wind Advisory for Blount, Sevier, Cocke, Greene, Unicoi,
and Carter mountain zones for low-end mountain wave winds tonight.
850mb LLJ will be around 50 kt with a favorable pressure gradient
for mountain wave winds across the mountains. The HRRR is picking
up on this and showing 40-45 mph gusts in the Smokies and up to
50mph gusts near Camp Creek in Greene County. The primary timing
will correspond to the axis of max winds within the LLJ between
04z and 11z overnight into early Tuesday morning; therefore, the
Wind Advisory will be in effect for the aforementioned mountain
zones between 11pm and 6am tonight.

JB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A strong shortwave trough moves east across the Great Plains this
evening and tonight with an upper-level dual-jet structure
developing across the region with strong, widespread upper-level
diffluence and ascent across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians. The 850mb southerly LLJ will increase in response to
this ascent with a warm nose developing around 5-7k ft. Most of
our lower elevations will be above freezing with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s, but localized mountain valleys and higher
elevations along the TN/NC state line and into southwest Virginia
may see precipitation begin as light sleet or freezing rain
tonight. The most likely areas to see a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch of ice before the changeover to rain will be in the
mountain communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy
Fork in eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal
to no impacts are expected for most areas. As temperatures warm
within southerly flow, all areas in our forecast area are
expected to be predominantly a cold rain.

This system shifts east of the region by mid-morning Tuesday with
northerly flow and steady or falling temperatures during the day.
Some minor snow accumulation is possible across the higher
elevations of the East Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains,
and perhaps some localized spots along the plateau near the TN/KY
state line. However, localized accumulation would likely only be
a dusting to one-half inch, and no impacts are expected.

Drier air arrives by Tuesday night. Patchy black ice could be
possible in areas that do not fully dry out, but the dry air and
wind should evaporate most moisture on surfaces. High pressure and
cooler air brings cool, clear conditions to the region on
Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some
increased clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At
this time, this is most likely an all light rain event for most
locations. There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or
snow across the higher terrain of the mountains. Details are
uncertain and forecast confidence in precipitation probabilities,
amounts, and types if fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is
considerable uncertainty with whether these systems will remain
weak and separate or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure
system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions this afternoon with lowering cigs during the
evening as moisture increases from south to north. MVFR conditions
deteriorate rapidly to IFR overnight across the region. Some LLWS
is possible during the overnight hours with light winds near the
surface and southerly 40 to 50 kt winds at about 5k ft.
Precipitation exits the region by the end of the forecast period
with gradually improving MVFR conditions by mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 45 27 50 / 100 40 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 44 26 47 / 100 70 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 43 25 46 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 42 24 44 / 100 90 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...JB


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

200
FXUS64 KMRX 012308 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Gusty mountain winds and widespread rain arrive tonight through
Tuesday morning. Far northeast mountains, including higher
elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as light freezing
rain tonight. Minimal to no localized impacts expected. Only a
cold rain expected for most areas.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across higher elevations of East Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Limited accumulations at most. Little to no
impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Issued a Wind Advisory for Blount, Sevier, Cocke, Greene, Unicoi,
and Carter mountain zones for low-end mountain wave winds tonight.
850mb LLJ will be around 50 kt with a favorable pressure gradient
for mountain wave winds across the mountains. The HRRR is picking
up on this and showing 40-45 mph gusts in the Smokies and up to
50mph gusts near Camp Creek in Greene County. The primary timing
will correspond to the axis of max winds within the LLJ between
04z and 11z overnight into early Tuesday morning; therefore, the
Wind Advisory will be in effect for the aforementioned mountain
zones between 11pm and 6am tonight.

JB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A strong shortwave trough moves east across the Great Plains this
evening and tonight with an upper-level dual-jet structure
developing across the region with strong, widespread upper-level
diffluence and ascent across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians. The 850mb southerly LLJ will increase in response to
this ascent with a warm nose developing around 5-7k ft. Most of
our lower elevations will be above freezing with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s, but localized mountain valleys and higher
elevations along the TN/NC state line and into southwest Virginia
may see precipitation begin as light sleet or freezing rain
tonight. The most likely areas to see a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch of ice before the changeover to rain will be in the
mountain communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy
Fork in eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal
to no impacts are expected for most areas. As temperatures warm
within southerly flow, all areas in our forecast area are
expected to be predominantly a cold rain.

This system shifts east of the region by mid-morning Tuesday with
northerly flow and steady or falling temperatures during the day.
Some minor snow accumulation is possible across the higher
elevations of the East Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains,
and perhaps some localized spots along the plateau near the TN/KY
state line. However, localized accumulation would likely only be
a dusting to one-half inch, and no impacts are expected.

Drier air arrives by Tuesday night. Patchy black ice could be
possible in areas that do not fully dry out, but the dry air and
wind should evaporate most moisture on surfaces. High pressure and
cooler air brings cool, clear conditions to the region on
Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some
increased clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At
this time, this is most likely an all light rain event for most
locations. There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or
snow across the higher terrain of the mountains. Details are
uncertain and forecast confidence in precipitation probabilities,
amounts, and types if fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is
considerable uncertainty with whether these systems will remain
weak and separate or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure
system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rain will spread across East TN through the night. Initially,
light rain with VFR conditions is expected, with a gradual
lowering of vis/cigs to MVFR as rain intensifies, with periods of
IFR vis/cigs at times during the peak rainfall, mainly between
09-15Z. A cold front will cross the area in the morning, between
12-18Z, shifting winds to a W to N direction and ending rain and
vis reductions. Some improvement in cigs will follow a couple
hours later in the afternoon, but still at MVFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 45 27 50 / 100 40 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 44 26 47 / 100 70 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 43 25 46 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 42 24 44 / 100 90 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

396
FXUS64 KMRX 021109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Wind Advisory remains in effect across the east TN mountains and
foothills through 6 AM EST this morning for gusts up to 45 mph.

- Light freezing rain probable over the next few hours across the
far northeast TN mountains, including higher elevations of southwest
Virginia. A change over to rain is expected before sunrise. Minimal
to no localized impacts expected.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow still looks likely later this
morning across the northern cumberland Plateau, and the higher
elevations of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Limited
accumulations at most. Little to no impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable..

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Now Through This afternoon:

Rain:

Rain showers are moving across the region with the advancing
shortwave. The bulk of the precipitation will exit by this
afternoon. Storm total QPF looks similar to the last issuance,
with most areas averaging between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. A few
isolated areas may see up to 1 inch.

Wind:

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM EST this morning for
wind gusts to around 50 mph in the advisory locations, east TN
mountains and foothills. The latest observation from Cove Mountain
shows 52 MPH as of a few hours ago. The advisory level gusts
should start to decline after 6 AM as this is when the 850 mb jet
start to weaken across the area. However, wind gusts from 20 to 30
mph will still remain across the east TN mountains through the
day.

Freezing Rain:

According to the Hi-Res models, freezing rain is probable at the
current hour across the far northeast TN mountains. The most likely
areas to see a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice, before
the changeover to rain by sunrise, will be in the mountain
communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy Fork in
eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal to no
impacts are expected for most areas.

Sleet/Snow:

As the shortwave moves east later this morning, temperatures will
drop as colder air moving in from the northwest on the backside of
this system. The HRRR, REFS, HREF, still show a transition from
rain, to sleet, to snow. This occurs between 7 AM and 10 AM this
morning, but also as moisture is exiting. The latest HRRR runs are
less bullish than previous ones, and show very little sleet/snow
for any location in our area. If we do see this brief transition,
it will occur in northern Scott Count TN, along the TN/KY state
line, and into portions of southwest VA (most likely Wise County). Accumulations will be little to none and no impacts are expected.
At best, there may be an isolated report of up to one half inch
of snow but most areas won't even see a trace.

Some light snow showers are then possible later today and this
evening across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains
as northwest flow takes over. Little to no accumulation is expected
during this time and no impacts.

Rest of the forecast:

Patchy black ice could be possible tonight in areas that do not
fully dry out, but the dry air and wind should evaporate most
moisture on surfaces. High pressure and cooler air brings cool,
clear conditions to the region on Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some increased
clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At this time,
this is most likely an all light rain event for most locations.
There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or snow across the
higher terrain of the mountains. Details are uncertain and forecast
confidence in precipitation probabilities, amounts, and types if
fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is considerable
uncertainty with whether these systems will remain weak and separate
or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Poor aviation conditions will continue over the next couple of
hours with TRI, currently VFR, expected to drop to IFR and MVFR by
sunrise as rain intensifies. For CHA and TYS, further reductions
beyond what is being seen are unlikely with visibilities improving
in the next 2 to 3 hours. Ceilings, however, will be slower to
improve back to MVFR by later this morning. MVFR ceilings look
likely to continue throughout the day with a gradual shift to
northwesterly winds. Some improvements after sunset are forecast
at CHA by late afternoon, but persistent MVFR is likely at TYS and
TRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 27 50 33 / 50 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 27 47 31 / 80 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 44 25 46 29 / 70 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 25 44 27 / 100 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

439
FXUS64 KMRX 022352
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Dry weather next two days before increasing precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday.

- Low to medium chances for light snowfall across southwest
Virginia Friday.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A dreary day is locked in for the rest of today, with HREF
depicting perhaps some holes in the low stratus deck as northwest
flow cascades over the Plateau into the valley. The good news is
the rain has dissipated, and while light drizzle is present on
radar, not observing any either here or at regional airports.
Tonight will be colder but likely still low level clouds hanging
around. Left fog out after looking at model soundings, but higher
elevations may see freezing fog as they interact with low clouds.

A short break in the wet weather for the next 36 to 48 hours or so
before a coastal low slides across the Gulf and southeastern
states, while a powerful 150 knot upper jet exists to our north.
Upper level forcing will create light precipitation late Thursday
through Friday, with some questions about p-type existing,
especially Friday morning over far northeastern Tennessee into
southwest Virginia. The Euro brings saturation quicker Friday
morning and has a narrow window of snow across southwest Virginia,
but the GFS is drier then. NAM depicts a solution closer to the
Euro, but the lowest 2 km of atmosphere is very very close to the
0C isotherm, small changes either direction may produce a short
all snow bout or wintry mix before precipitation concludes later
on Friday. LREF probabilities are a similar mixed bag. For now
keeping with the NBM's advertisement of up to a half inch of snow,
with the Euro more aggressive.

Over the weekend low probabilities of precipitation, most likely
rain if anything, exist as a couple of vorticity lobes pivot
through the various jet streams as an upper trough digs into the
area. Another weak shortwave with additional precipitation is
shown in both Euro and GFS for next Monday. Between the active
pattern and the couple of troughs, temperatures will remain a
December gloom and chill through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR CIG will dominate much of the first part of the TAF period.
It is forecast to clear/lift from south to north, so CHA will
improve to VFR sooner than the others. Fog possibility was left
from the 18Z issuance at TYS and TRI. Once day breaks on
Wednesday, high pressure conditions can be expected with very
light/variable winds, and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 50 32 49 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 30 46 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 25 46 29 45 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 44 26 43 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

378
FXUS64 KMRX 031118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday.

- Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN
and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Low probability
light freezing rain/wintry mix central TN valley.
Minor impacts possible.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low-level moisture still locked in across the region. Though the
moisture is shallow, NAM soundings show moisture up to around
-8 to -10 degrees Celsius. This aligns with the reports from earlier
this evening of a few light flurries/snow showers across our
northern areas. Because moisture is lingering, made an increase to
sky cover through the rest of the night and late morning. The NBM
wanted to clear things out way too fast. Sunny skies by this
afternoon. Then, dry weather through Thursday with below normal
temperatures.

As we have been discussing, we are still watching an incoming system
on Thursday night into Friday. We still aren't in range of the Hi-
Res models, but the rest of the model data suggests moderate
probabilities of some light snow up across extreme northeast TN and
into portions of southwest VA, as well as portions of the east TN
mountains. LREF probs from DESI show between a 40 to 60% probability
of seeing at least 0.5 inches of snow across these areas. The higher-
end probs (60s) are along the TN/NC border up in northeast TN and
into the eastern portions of Washington County, VA. Whereas
locations between Rogersville and Tri-Cities are more in the 30 to
40% prob range. Upping the snow amounts to 1" drops the
probabilities to around 40% for extreme northeast TN and eastern
Washington County, VA. LREF Probs for trace amounts of freezing
rain or light wintery mix across the central TN valley is around
30%. Areas south of Knoxville should be all rain. The opportunity
for any snow accumulation across northeastern areas will be short-
lived though. Increasing southerly flow will bring about warming
temperatures, transitioning any frozen precip over to rain by late morning/early afternoon.

Low confidence forecast through the rest of the period. Some models
show a dry Saturday, while the latest NAM and ECMWF keep light
showers in place. Latest NBM keeps slight chance POPs in through
Saturday. Slight chance/chance Pops then remain in place through the
rest of the period due to an active pattern across the U.S. This
makes it difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where any one system
will be moving through the the flow. Thus, this is why the NBM is
hanging onto Pops beyond the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Based on the latest trends and latest data, MVFR ceilings are now
expected to last longer into the day than the previous issuance.
CHA is still likely to improve first by around noon. The other two
sites, however, could remain MVFR through the afternoon. Winds
will be fairly light and shifting to be more westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 31 49 37 / 0 0 10 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 29 45 33 / 0 0 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 46 28 45 32 / 0 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 26 43 29 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

274
FXUS64 KMRX 032322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation
chances Thursday evening into Friday.

- Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN
and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Minor impacts are
possible. Elsewhere, will get rain Thursday night into Friday.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight troughing will be
over the region through the weekend as a big, broad trough dominates
the Central and Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will be
over the region through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, a Gulf
Low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will bring overrunning
moisture into the region. Rain is expected for most of the region
Thursday night into Friday. Temperature profiles support light snow
Thursday night into Friday morning for Southwest Virginia and
extreme Northeast Tennessee. Freezing rain probabilities are low in
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee and model soundings show a deep
enough cold layer to support snow. By mid Friday morning temps will
warm enough for a changeover back to rain. The lower elevations may
get up to half an inch accumulation and the higher elevations may
get up to an inch of accumulation. Minor travel impacts will be
possible during the morning commute Friday but will be confined to
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee. The Tri-Cities area may see a
few flakes but little to no accumulation is expected there. HREF
guidance through 12Z Friday have snow totals below one inch. The
Tennessee Valley won't see any frozen precip with this system. HREF
guidance doesn't cover this whole event yet so hopefully the next
forecast cycle will bring more confidence.

Rain chances will be very low for the weekend and into early next
week. One or more shortwaves may move through the pattern but
moisture will be limited. Rain or possibly even a brief snow will be
possible at some point but there is too much uncertainty to nail
down specifics at this time. Widespread travel impacts are unlikely
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Will see varying amounts of mainly high and mid level clouds, with
VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 49 37 48 / 0 20 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 46 35 45 / 0 10 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 27 46 34 43 / 0 10 80 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 43 31 42 / 0 0 70 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

543
FXUS64 KMRX 041106
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
606 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Dry weather today before increasing precipitation chances tonight
into Friday.

- Probabilities for minor impacts from ice and snow are trending
upwards across the northern Cumberland plateau, southwest VA and
extreme northeast TN for tonight into Friday morning

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Dry today with continued below normal temperatures. Increasing
precipitation chances tonight into Friday morning. The good news is
that the latest HREF probs mostly align with the previous forecast.
The bad news, the last two runs of the HRRR are well above the HREF
means in terms of snowfall amounts. This makes for a low confidence
forecast.

Latest HREF guidance shows probs for at least 0.5 inches across
southwest VA are in the 30 to 50% range. Probs for at least 0.5
inches for extreme northeast TN are generally from 50 to 70%. There
are also low probs, 10 to 20%, of at least 0.5 inches across the
northern Cumberland Plateau and areas along and near the TN/KY state
line. Upping the prob amounts to 1 inch yield much lower values,
around 30%, but for very isolated locations for both southwest VA
and extreme northeast TN.

The LREF members shows slightly higher prob values, and with more
spatial coverage, for the 0.5 and 1 inch prob values. LREF shows
moderate probs of 1 to 2 inches across southwest VA and into extreme
northeast TN. The REFS output aligns fairly well with the LREF
ensemble probs.

Then we have the HRRR. The latest two runs of the HRRR show even
higher values than what the REFS and LREF ensembles means suggests.
The HRRR wants to paint a solid 2 inches in across the northern
Plateau, and 3 to 4 inches in across southwest VA and extreme
northeast TN.

Because of all this, uncertainty in snowfall amounts is high. These
higher end amounts would result in travel impacts while the lower
HREF amounts suggest little to no impacts. With this forecast
package, have trended snowfall amounts slightly upward, above NBM,
based on latest model data and trends. In addition to the snow, NBM
also painting in some light icing across these same areas. Please
stay tuned to the forecast as the snowfall forecast will likely
continue to change given the current variability. Please plan ahead
for potential impacts with this system.

Areas from Knoxville and south should remain all rain through the
event. The bulk of the precip will have ended by Friday afternoon,
but a few light showers may linger into the evening hours. NBM still
wants to hold on to some slight chance POPs for Saturday and Sunday
but it seems warranted so will leave them in the forecast.

Rain chances continue into next week as an active pattern will be in
place across the country. As of now, Tuesday look like it should be
dry though and is most likely to be the nicest day of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Freezing fog has developed at TRI and is likely to continue for at
least the next 2 hours. There are also low clouds or elevated fog
around CHA near 200 feet AGL, but VFR was maintained. Otherwise,
clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL and light northeasterly
winds will persist through the day. Throughout the evening, cloud
heights will fall as rain moves into the region by midnight. For
TRI, this rain could be mixed with snow or other precipitation
types. MVFR conditions were added to the end of the TAFs, but
further reductions are likely later on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 38 49 39 / 20 90 40 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 35 44 38 / 10 90 60 20
Oak Ridge, TN 45 34 44 35 / 10 90 40 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 32 42 35 / 0 90 60 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

642
FXUS64 KMRX 042340
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Light wintry precipitation expected tonight over our VA counties
and areas in TN near the KY and VA state lines. Winter Weather
Advisories have been posted to account for this.

- Confidence is fairly high for timing and accumulations in
Virginia, with medium confidence in northeastern Tennessee.

- Some mixed precipitation types could briefly occur as far south
as the I-40 corridor, but predominant precip type should be rain
and no accumulations or impacts are expected that far south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The main forecast item of concern is the next 12-24 hours and the
possibility of some light wintry precipitation set to affect our
forecast area tonight into Friday morning.

Synoptically speaking, broad west southwesterly flow is in place
across the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by a weakening closed
low off the Baja peninsula in the west. Cold temps over the midwest
and Great Lakes regions, reinforced by troughing over eastern
Canada, along with a shortwave ejecting from southern plains, are
driving a strong WSW-ENE oriented upper jet from the Ozarks into
Kentucky. This jet and shortwave interaction will produce some light precipitation tonight and into Friday morning across the forecast
area. Forecast soundings support a mix of precipitation types,
ranging from all, or mostly, snow in our Virginia counties to a
mixed bag in TN from the northern Cumberland plateau eastward
towards Hawkins and Johnson counties. Any further south than that
(places like Morristown, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Knoxville, etc),
nearer the I-40 corridor, there may be some snow mix in shortly
after the onset of precipitation tonight but it should be primarily
rain and certainly no accumulations are expected.

As for accumulations, deterministic guidance supports about an inch
of snow in our VA counties and a dusting to half an inch in northern Tennessee. However, probabilistic guidance paints a different
picture, with HREF showing upwards of 80 percent odds of GTE 2
inches of snow in our VA counties and even 50 percent odds of GTE
3". REFS output isn't much different, showing 70 percent odds of GTE
2" over an albeit smaller footprint of our VA counties, and even
some 40 percent odds of GTE 3" totals. Forecast soundings support
this ptype forecast so my confidence level in VA is fairly high.

The transition zone in northern TN is where my confidence is much
lower. The area from roughly the TN/VA line, to a line from roughly
Wartburg to Morristown to Johnson city, will feature mixed
precipitation and will changeover to rain at some point tonight. The
question really is what ptype wins out the longest and what, if any,
impacts there wind up being. Current guidance depicts at least some
chance of freezing rain and resulting light glazing, along with a
dusting to half an inch of snow tonight for areas mainly within a
county or so of the TN/KY/VA state line areas. Much further south
than that and while there could be mixed ptypes, temperatures will be
just warm enough to preclude any type of accumulations or impacts.
By the I-40 corridor, it should be all rain tonight. All wintry
precip comes to an end between daybreak and mid morning tomorrow,
holding on the longest in northern Wise and Russell counties, as
warming southwesterly flow aloft moves in.

West southwesterly flow continues aloft heading into the weekend,
with surface high pressure keeping dry conditions in place Saturday.
Another disturbance moves through Sunday into Monday for more
chances of light rain. There could be some wintry precip with that
one Sun night as temperatures cool off, but confidence is low on
both occurrence and amounts/impacts at the moment due to
disagreements amongst guidance sources.

Otherwise, dry conditions last much of the remainder of the period,
along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Deteriorating flight conditions to come in the next couple of
hours with lower CIG with -RA mainly for the south and a mix from
TYS north. Bulk of precipitation expected during the overnight
hours. Closer to sunrise, precipitation will exit to the east and
northeast. IFR to MVFR CIG forecast to remain the rest of the TAF
period even after the departure of precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 49 39 51 / 100 20 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 45 37 49 / 90 40 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 34 45 36 49 / 90 30 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 42 36 46 / 90 50 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Anderson-
Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

694
FXUS64 KMRX 051118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet
accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.

- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after
sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.

- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to
snow in northern sections Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty
well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been
more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the
Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition
area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing
precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air
aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of
SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell
counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing,
possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter
Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be
able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional
accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level
moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow,
gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may
linger into the early afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions
in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back
into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip
Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the
depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival
with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.

Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest
of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our
area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may
bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, poor aviation conditions are expected to continue with
all sites reporting IFR to LIFR as rain. TRI is most likely to
have at least some periods of MVFR this morning with CHA and TYS
staying down as rain exits the area. CHA and TYS are then
expected to improve to low-end MVFR by the afternoon with TRI
then becoming more IFR than the others. Overnight tonight, further
reductions to IFR or LIFR are increasingly likely but were left
out of the TAF for the time being. Winds will be light and
variable at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 37 51 35 / 10 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 37 49 32 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 36 45 29 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson-
Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

745
FXUS64 KMRX 052323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Occasional drizzle could continue in the northern TN valley
through this evening. Otherwise, dry but dreary conditions will
be the norm through the first half of Sunday.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some low elevation snow could occur in the
north, but accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A northern branch jet will remain situated from the Arklatex region,
ENE through our forecast area and into the mid-Atlantic seaboard
through Saturday. With saturated low levels lingering in the
northern half of our CWA through at least late tonight, I wouldn't
be surprised if areas of drizzle continue to show up from time to
time through late tonight. Otherwise, the forecast through Saturday
should be largely dry, though quite cloudy.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be Sun night into Mon
morning. We'll be sandwiched between a southern stream
disturbance ejecting ENE from the southern plains along the
subtropical jet, and a stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes
associated with the polar jet during this time. There's no strong
surface cyclogenesis in the southeast so any precip with this
system will be driven by jet dynamics aloft and should be light in
nature. There's some indication that precip could miss us to the
north and south, focused with stronger jet support on either side
of us. However, model soundings show at least some moisture
present and higher resolution models do show some light precip.
Kept the high NBM PoPs because I think the likelihood that we get
something more than a trace of precip is pretty high, but this
will certainly be a high PoP/low QPF scenario. Regarding the
chances of winter weather, I did leave some snow in the forecast
for low elevations but certainly don't believe there will be
impactful snowfall. Between the low QPF and the soundings showing
the potential for more of a seeder-feeder snowfall setup, there's
very low chances of anything sticking, much less causing impacts.
For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow behind this
shortwave could result in a couple of inches through Monday
evening but that's a low confidence part of the forecast right
now.

Tue and Wed look dry, but the next system arrives Wed night into
Thu, with better chances for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Will see low clouds/fog overnight into Saturday morning. MVFR to
IFR conditions will be common, and LIFR (or lower) conditions
will be possible especially at TRI later tonight into early
Saturday. Conditions will be improving to VFR Saturday afternoon.
Winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 49 31 51 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 34 48 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

723
FXUS64 KMRX 061109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low level moisture remains trapped under a strong inversion and
against the mountains in a westerly low to midlevel flow. Clouds
will remain in place through the night, until the passage of a
midlevel shortwave trough this afternoon. Most of the area should
have mostly sunny skies for a couple hours before sunset.

The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday evening and
continues through Monday morning. Forcing with this system will be
mainly provided by a mid/upper level shortwave trough. There's no
strong surface cyclogenesis in the southeast with this system, and
the wind field through the lower and midlevels is fairly weak. With
weak forcing, any precip should be light in nature. The latest NBM
PoP appear to have trended downward a bit, as the area of heaviest
rainfall passes to our south. On Monday morning, around 09Z or so,
cold advection develops and temperatures begin to drop behind the
850 mb trough and a weak surface front, allowing for a change to
snow. This will be mainly in SW VA and the East TN mountains, but
outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light
and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening.

Tuesday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions in a NW flow
pattern. Temperatures will get a bit warmer on Wednesday, into the
50s, with a slight increase in clouds with a dry shortwave trough
passage. A Clipper system brings a chance of rain on Thursday and
Friday, although model agreement is poor with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Gradually improving aviation conditions are expected with TYS
already seeing some brief periods of VFR. MVFR remains likely at
CHA and TYS until around noon with TRI keeping MVFR further into
the afternoon. By later today, some clouds around 3,000 feet will
likely remain but with less ceilings. Winds will be light and
variable with a westerly to southwesterly direction favored.
Overnight, some fog potential exists but was left out of the TAFs
for the time being.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 53 41 / 0 0 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

434
FXUS64 KMRX 062351 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist for some this afternoon, with more
sunshine breaking in through in the afternoon for many.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Currently some portions of the region are finally getting a chance
to see the sun, while others remain stuck under overcast skies with
moisture remaining trapped near the mountains and a weak shortwave
traversing through today. Still looks like most people should at
least get to see blue skies for a couple of hours before sunset, or
before clouds over Middle Tennessee move into the region.
Temperatures are able to creep back into the 50's for much of the
eastern Tennessee Valley on Sunday before our next system moves
through brining precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

On Sunday night our next chance of precipitation moves in and
continues through Monday morning. This round of precipitation will
be aided by a midlevel shortwave, but no strong surface level
forcing is depicted by the models. Therefore, any precip should be
fairly light over the region. Guidance continues to suggest that the
heaviest precipitation stays south of the TN/NC state lines, but we
could definitely see some creep up into southeast TN and southwest
NC. By Monday morning cold air advection ramps up and temperatures
drop behind the low level trough with a weak surface boundary
developing, allowing for a switchover to snow for parts of our area.
This will be mainly in southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains,
but outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be
light and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening mainly along the
peaks of the mountains.

Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere through the middle of
the week with temperatures settling in around seasonal normals
before our next system moves in towards the end of the week into the
weekend. Looks like it will be fairly warm on the front end with a
big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move through
Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures behind
the front for the upcoming weekend... possibly dropping into the
teens for the weekend mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Expect low clouds and/or fog to develop across northern Georgia
later tonight and push northward into the KCHA area. Have
concerns this could develop across the entirety of the TN valley
but slightly lower dewpoints and the possibility of incoming high
clouds give me less confidence at KTYS and KTRI, so will limit
LIFR CIGS to KCHA tonight. All sites return to VFR levels by mid
morning. Afterwards, incoming system and associated rainfall
holds off until after 00z tomorrow evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 33 54 41 / 0 0 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 40
Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 28 49 33 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

418
FXUS64 KMRX 071127
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Fog has developed in parts of the area, and lowered visibilities are
expected to expand over the next few hours in southern sections.
Northern sections are likely to have more cloud cover based on
satellite trends, and should have less fog. With forecast lows in
the lower 30s to upper 20s, this could be freezing fog that could
cause some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Through the day,
high and midlevel clouds will be increasing ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough that will bring rain in the evening.

Forcing for this precipitation will be driven mainly by a midlevel
shortwave trough, but no strong surface level forcing is depicted by
the models. Therefore, any precip should be fairly light over the
area. Measurable precip begins the area between 00Z and midnight as
the column moistens from the top down. By early Monday morning, cold
air advection ramps up and temperatures drop behind the low level
trough and a weak surface cold front, allowing for a transition to
snow for northern parts of our area. This will be mainly in
southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains, but outside the highest
elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to
be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow
behind this shortwave that persists through Monday could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening, mainly along the
peaks of the mountains near the NC border. Amounts should stay under
Advisory criteria for populated areas.

Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere is expected through
the middle of the week, with temperatures warming a little (into the
50s for Wednesday) before our next system moves in towards the end
of the week. Temperatures appear to be fairly warm on the front end
with a big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move
through Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures
behind the front for the upcoming weekend, possibly dropping into
the teens for the weekend mornings with highs in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Dense freezing fog has developed at all 3 sites with aviation
conditions to LIFR or less. This is expected to persist for the
next couple of hours with improvements to IFR then MVFR ceilings
by later this morning. Currently, TRI is expected to improve back
to VFR the fastest with CHA and TYS possibly not recovering until
early afternoon. Then later this evening, MVFR ceilings will
likely move back into the area from the south and west as chances
for rain increase with CHA and TYS forecast to drop again. Winds
will be light and variable at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 41 48 29 / 10 40 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 39 43 28 / 10 40 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 50 38 44 26 / 10 40 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 35 38 26 / 10 50 60 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.

TN...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-
Union-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)