ACUS01 KWNS 231225
SWODY1
SPC AC 231223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near the
NV/UT/AZ border and model guidance shows this feature moving east
into southern CO by late tonight. Southerly low-level flow is
forecast to gradually increase through the evening and aid in
moisture advecting northward from south-central TX (12.5 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio via the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob) into
northwest TX and southern OK. Models continue to show only weak lee cyclogenesis, but the pronounced increase of a LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection will aid in storm development and focus
severe potential late this afternoon but especially into the
evening/overnight.

A southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend from the TX
South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon. The stronger
heating and moisture increase will likely set up along and south of
the boundary. The latest forecast soundings suggest supercells
capable of a threat for large hail will be the primary risk from the
TX South Plains northeast into southwest OK during the evening.
Some enlargement of the hodograph and moistening low levels could
yield an isolated risk for a tornado, in addition to localized
severe gusts with the stronger storms. An increase in convective
coverage is expected through the late evening as the LLJ and
associated warm advection promote clustering and messy storm modes
with time, coincident with a waning overall severe threat into the
overnight.

Farther west, diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer
proximity to the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies.
An isolated risk for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with
this activity before subsiding during the evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 10/23/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 241220
SWODY1
SPC AC 241218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature
is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains
by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly
500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over
Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning
surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the
Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and
northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends
from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim
of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface
dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and
into the eastern TX Panhandle.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist
advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX.
The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift
slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists
through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best
characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will
probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected
to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early
showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite
rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual
development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this
afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles
favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm
mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms
of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this
time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of
TX by early Saturday morning.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX-LA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the
southern High Plains and it is forecast to move east across much of
OK by early Sunday morning. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow (40-60 kt)
will move through the base of the larger scale trough over TX and
eventually moving into the lower MS Valley. An ongoing MCS across
southwestern LA and the northwest Gulf of America will likely
progress eastward across southern LA through early afternoon. An
isolated risk for damaging gusts (55-65 mph) and a brief tornado may
continue east but be increasingly confined to the coastal parishes
as the squall line's eastward movement outpaces appreciable inland destabilization.

High uncertainty is apparent farther west across central into east
and coastal portions of TX. Earlier shower/thunderstorm activity
across much of the mid and upper coastal plain of TX has rendered
substantial convective overturning of the airmass from the coastal
plain northwestward towards the I-35 corridor north of a composite
outflow boundary. Models vary regarding destabilization and this
signal in model data is congruent with forecaster experience in
placing low confidence in potential storm evolution later this
afternoon into the evening across central and east TX. Nonetheless,
there will probably exist a window of opportunity for diurnal
destabilization arcing around the south and west portions of the
mesoscale surface high. Some forecast soundings show moderate
instability in the presence of strong mid to high-level westerly flow---supporting supercells and storm organization with
accompanying potential for damaging gusts.

Have adjusted the northern bounds of tornado probabilities farther
south in closer proximity to richer moisture, and removed 15-percent
hail probabilities across southeast TX and LA where lapse rates will
likely remain stunted through early Sunday morning. The tornado
risk correspondingly will tend to favor any supercell development in
proximity to richer moisture and mesovortex structures within parent
QLCSs, but low confidence exists regarding this forecast given
aforementioned convective-related concerns.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale
ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the
coast of Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado risk could develop
near the immediate coast and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as cells move inland. Farther east into parts of southeast
Washington and far northeast Oregon, thunderstorm development will
be possible late this afternoon with perhaps isolated severe gusts
associated with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261220
SWODY1
SPC AC 261219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along
portions of the central Gulf Coast. The primary hazards are a
couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts. A risk for a few stronger
storms may linger tonight near the coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster
of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the
continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern
MS. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is
located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid-
to upper-level cyclone over OK.

Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward
extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is
confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped
west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to
the south of the FL Panhandle. A persistent fetch of southerly
low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate
buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant
profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the
stronger updrafts through the morning. An attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue
through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible
waning in storm intensity later today. As the upper system over OK
this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration
of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL
Panhandle. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado could develop.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe
thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 071241
SWODY1
SPC AC 071240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Plains will
continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day, progressing
across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Surface low attendant to this
system will move from its current location over western Upper MI
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern ON into
southern QC. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley tonight,
continuing eastward into the Mid-Atlantic overnight.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
The cold front is forecast to interact with low-level moisture
advecting northward/northeastward in response to the overall system
evolution. Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints just
ahead of this front across east-central/southeast MO and southern
IL. Expectation is for mid-50s dewpoints to persist ahead of the
front over much of the OH Valley, with greater dewpoints anticipated
farther south (i.e. low 60s across the TN Valley and mid 60s across
the Southeast). However, even with this increasing moisture, airmass destabilization is uncertain, owing to seasonally warm mid-level
temperatures and widespread cloudiness. The best forcing for ascent
is expected during the afternoon and evening across the middle/upper
OH Valley and northern TN Valley, but the lack of surface
destabilization will likely result in a predominantly elevated and
anafrontal character to thunderstorms in this region. A few
instances of isolated hail are possible.

Modest surface-based buoyancy is possible farther south from
south-central KY through Middle TN where dewpoints preceding the
front will likely be the in the low 60s. Robust westerly flow aloft
will support strong deep-layer shear, which could result in some
modest thunderstorms organization along and ahead of the cold front.
Frontal forcing will favor a linear storm mode, with some bowing
segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Some hail is possible
as well.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated across this region than
areas farther north. However, overall forcing for ascent, both
synoptically and along the front, will be weaker. Primary forcing
across this region will likely be warm-air advection, which leads to
greater uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly
given the cloud cover expected. If an updraft is able to mature and
persist, there will likely be enough low-level helicity to support a
limited tornado risk.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/07/2025

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